Ethiopia is a powerhouse in the making

Ethiopia is a unique state in the African context it has existed in a coherent form for more than two millennia fighting of numerous foreign invasions it has its own alphabet a self-defined concept of nationhood and it largely escaped European colonization all this and more make the country stand out in the continent now Addis Ababa is working on political economic and foreign policy reforms aimed at redefining Ethiopia as a regional powerhouse I'm your host Shivan and welcome to Caspian report before we continue I want to recommend you to check out the YouTube channel tara matter they create valuable content on nature conservation and the environment it's a different side to geopolitics and their videos are well researched while their footage is outstanding I particularly enjoyed the video on the Nile conflict or how container ships killed thousands of whales have a look on their channel for more when we think of geopolitical competition in East Africa the usual candidates are China Russia Turkey Iran various European powers a few Arab states and the United States absent from this list are the nations from within the area itself that notion is steadily changing Ethiopia is applying reforms that seek to transform the country's internal and external mechanisms a clear sign that the state wants to increase its influence in the periphery and Ethiopia is distinctly situated to take on such a role what sets the country apart is that Ethiopia is gifted with a substantial amount of freshwater resources a dozen major rivers snaked through its territory with the largest delivering into the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean meanwhile the smaller rivers and lakes feed into the lowlands and coalesce into three critical hydrological Basin systems the first and largest is the Nile Basin which includes the Blue Nile acaba and Takeda rivers together they cover roughly 1/3 of Ethiopia and then flow west the White Nile in Sudan and South Sudan the second Basin is located in the Rift Valley and includes the awash Omo Lake Turkana and their tributaries the basin covers about a quarter of Ethiopia and goes straight through the center of the country before it dissipates into the plains of Djibouti and Kenya the third basin is the chabley Juba to the southeast it includes the Chevalley and the Canali rivers and the basin covers a third of the country and then extends into Somalia until it drains into the Indian Ocean there are many more rivers lakes and even basins but these three watershed systems are the most critical ones what these basins have in common is that much of the water is generated in the ethiopian mountains and highlands and then flows to the lower riparian nations like Kenya Djibouti Sudan South Sudan Somalia and even as far as Egypt this makes Ethiopia an indispensable source for renewable surface fresh water generating as much as 123 billion cubic meters annually each of the downstream nations relies on access to the fresh water flowing out from Ethiopia and this grants Addis Ababa political leverage across East Africa historically the allocation of fresh water to the lower riparian nations was an academic issue because Addis Ababa did not possess the means to shape nature that has fundamentally changed in less than two decades hydroelectricity has become the primary method of power generation in Ethiopia as the state began constructing power plants and dams and stations along its rivers as of 2016 the installed electricity capacity in the country sits at the modest 4,200 megawatts of which 90% is from hydropower however Addis Ababa has ambitious plans for the future it is estimated that the country's hydropower potential is at least 45,000 watts let that sink in for a moment because that is the second highest rate in Africa of course not all of the potential will be fulfilled but it goes to show that Ethiopia is only getting started with its hydropower developments some of the projects however have already caused considerable controversy such as the massive giggle capade 3 dam located on the Omo River commissioned in December 2016 Vicky LGB 3 is one of three dams along the Omo and it's tributaries that drain upstream water to irrigate large plantations on the Ethiopian side of the border while doing so however it deprives Lake Turkana of its precious water which is situated some 675 kilometers downstream in Kenya in the coming years as the water level in Lake Turkana drops Kenyan Plains villages livestock and Fisheries will be affected severely an even more controversial project as the grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam and its power stations along the Blue Nile River it's the biggest hydroelectric dam in Africa and once it's operational it will generate over 6,400 megawatts of power however the dam will also have direct consequences for downstream Egypt as such the mega project marks a source of friction between Cairo and Addis Ababa we did a separate report on this project a few years back so check that out for more details the point is that Ethiopia has enormous hydropower potential and the government has set its sights on an additional 17 places for hydropower projects so if the o-p-s controversial hydropower policy has thus far set a pattern of behavior for the foreseeable future now if you want to explore this map on your own you can I've created a special page with an interactive globe that displays rivers lakes basins ethnicities etc it's pretty neat and it's available for those who join our patreon community or the YouTube membership in any case with a history of regional supremacy and in control of water resources Ethiopia is bound to make its mark in the 21st century however before the country can throw its weight around it needs to get its house in order and Ethiopia has its fair share of troubles from literacy electricity locusts to power dynamics but standing out is the country's landlocked nature and its ethnic makeup ever since the loss of its coastal territory in Eritrea Ethiopia has been stripped of its access to the sea being landlocked has erased the costs of imports and exports and today Ethiopia relies on neighboring Djibouti for 95 percent of its trade this is a huge vulnerability considering that Djibouti is also a military hub that hosts the navies of China France Italy Japan and the United States right now Ethiopia and Djibouti enjoy friendly relations but that dynamic could easily be exploited by foreign powers and turned into a liability to mitigate this vulnerability Ethiopia is trying to expand its supply chain by gaining control of ports along the coast of the Horn of Africa it's also considering developing a navy of its own somewhere in the future but perhaps an even greater vulnerability is the country's ethnic layout spread interchangeably across the Ethiopian landscape are numerous ethno-religious groups all native to the area with a population of 109 million and growing Ethiopia is dominated by two religions Islam and Christianity its adherents can be further dissected into 80 ethnic groups the largest of which are the Oromo who account for roughly 32 percent of the population the Amhara are the second largest making up 28% of Ethiopians while the Tyrians and Somalis each represent another 6.5 percent of the population and there are other nine ethnic groups that have over a million members Ethiopia's rugged terrain and its large territorial size makes it exceedingly difficult for the government to exercise its control of the entirety of the population not to mention the hinterlands as such ethnic insurgencies have been a near constant occurrence throughout Ethiopian history and the central government used share might to cast its authority in 1987 that paradigm changed as the communist dictatorship was abolished and in its place an ethnic based federal system of governance was established then in 1994 the government took on a new constitution and divided its territories into nine regions and two autonomous cities based on the ethno-linguistic makeup of the local population the trouble with this federal system is that it leaves out the ethnic minorities who don't belong to the dominant regional group so there are a lot of grievances at the local level and the road towards federalism has been bumpy however in 2016 the stalemate was overturned and Prime Minister IB Ahmed took office and started renewed efforts to form an inclusive central government Abbey is a new kind of leader he's young he's a member of the Emoto community he has both a Muslim and Christian background and he is a former military officer these qualities have thus far taken a shine to the rebel groups and dissidents and the political environment is looking more stable today than it has in recent years under the leadership of ABI the state is trying to design a sense of unity and shared identity that supersedes ethnic fault lines a concept commonly referred to as Ethiopia vennett if the social program works the government will be empowered to act more decisively and independently in foreign pursuits one thing all Ethiopians have in common is their shared heritage of resisting and repelling foreign of Asians it's a source of great pride and the government uses that history to motivate its public to work towards common goals on the economic front Ethiopia is not doing so well as a result of the pre abbey unrest there is a heavy dependency on imports the national currency is declining in value and the state is drowning in debt while facing liquidity problems to rectify its economy the government wants to stimulate double-digit growth by fully or partially privatizing public enterprises such as national Airlines telecommunications logistics centers railway projects industrial parks and so on if the European policymakers have also been trying to secure their national borders by improving relations with their neighbors secure borders would allow the state to transfer resources elsewhere and boost economic development but in a region plagued by instability that hasn't been easy there is conflict in Somalia and South Sudan with some of the violence spilling over into Ethiopian territory still in recent years Addis Ababa has taken the necessary measures to secure its borders Eritrea and Ethiopia are in the process of mending ties and if the settlement is fruitful it will boost investor confidence in Ethiopia and give the country access to Eritrean ports even relations with Somalia have been favorable of late policymakers from both countries have expressed interest in economic integration and security cooperation a secure and stable Somalia will allow Ethiopia to invest in the okkadine region construct pipelines across the area and even acquire access to Somali ports meanwhile in South Sudan Ethiopia acts as a peace broker in 2013 Addis Ababa negotiated a ceasefire deal in the South Sudanese Civil War although that deal fell apart soon after if European lawmakers are currently working on ways to turn that ceasefire into a lasting peace are about half a million South Sudanese refugees in Ethiopia so the state has a lot riding on this all these activities combined developing a shared identity privatizing the economy gaining access to ports holding peace talks etc they indicate that Ethiopia is laying the groundwork to compete with foreign powers that are increasingly active in the Horn of Africa and although Addis Ababa still has a long way to go geography and history show that Ethiopia is uniquely suited to step up as a regional powerhouse opinion host Shivan from Caspian report if you like this report leave a like comment and subscribe for the algorithm thank you for watching and so [Music] [Music]

Channel: CaspianReport

Views: 1,134,735

Keywords: Ethiopia, East Africa, Africa, Ethiopian, Addis Ababa, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ports, Trade, Reforms, Rivers, Basins, Watershed, Geography, Facts, Interesting, Maps, Countries, Rift Valley, Kenya, Dams, Water, Hydropower, Ethnic groups, Oromo, Amhara, Tigrayans, Somalis, Ethiopiawinet, Abiy Ahmed, Ogaden, Influence, Politics

Id: NbKoXlYUNY0

Length: 14min 25sec (865 seconds)

Published: Wed Jul 08 2020

Reddit Comments

[u/IZiOstra]

Did you post it because CIV 6 is adding Ethiopia to the roster? 😂

[u/BCMM]

Since this video was made, Ethiopia appears to have started filling the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (on the Blue Nile), causing something of a panic in Egypt and Sudan.

[u/MrSchokking]

Very interesting! Thanks for sharing

[u/RubixKuber]

The Caspian Report is an amazing resource for geopolitical analyses.

[u/Zoidberg20a]

Eritrea must do everything in its power to resist the greedy Ethiopians seeking port access. There is a good reason why ethiopo is landlocked.