ETH/BTC Outlook

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're going to talk about ethereum but more specifically we're going to discuss the ether Bitcoin valuation if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out into the cryptographers premium uh into the cryptiverse.com let's go ahead and jump in now I imagine many of you are familiar with my view on The Ether Bitcoin valuation for those who are new my general expectation is that The Ether Bitcoin valuation is slowly bleeding meaning liquidity is Flowing away from ethereum and back into Bitcoin and I would expect that Trend to generally continue now I do want to address a few elephants in the room one of which is of course if you're a neutral party looking at The Ether Bitcoin valuation you might say that neither Bulls nor Bears have really given up much ground for the last two years and I would agree that that is a valid statement right I think both the Bulls and the Bears have not really given much ground for those who are not familiar here with my my longer term views back in 2019 I was actually quite bullish on on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation there there's plenty of receipts there but we talked about how the ethereum Bitcoin valuation back then should generally go up that was my expectation uh back when it in fact it's the first video you'll find on my channel uh was was right here in September 2019 talking about the severe undervaluation of ether Bitcoin however My Views systematically shifted after we put in this High here and then we came back down right we came back down and then going into early 2022 sort of noting the lower hive recognizing that the uh the bull market was over of course and and just talking about the idea that the ethereum vehicle evaluation would generally bleed at that point I took the stance that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation should bleed right there's a video on it and I I got somewhat lucky because I posted a video in the next day this uh this plunge um started however after that I uh I definitely thought that the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation would have continued down uh from this point I I was not expecting it to sort of pop back up here be that as it may I still would contend that this is still just a series of lower highs okay so you know you still have the high from December 2021 which was not taken out even with the merge rally okay and going into this you know after recognizing hey like you know this is going to Rally back up of course after it had already you know made about half the move um I I said that look I I don't think you know I still think it'll be a lower high right we should fade it and if you remember on the date of the merge right the flipping narratives were everywhere right they were everywhere and I said back then look guys these narratives emerge all the time right when when you see this when you see the valuation going up but history shows us and not just within crypto but in the context of their asset classes as well that you you you typically do not see it uh see something like that happen right we would likely continue to see a systematic bleed of the ethereum Bitcoin that we shouldn't and really since then it's just been a series of lower highs okay now I know that this does not make a lot of people happy right I understand there's a lot of people who are very bullish on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation and would would fade the idea that it's going down okay I understand that and you know I would love to be right there with you I would love to be in that scenario where I could just be bullish on it unfortunately um I I don't think I have the luxury of of becoming bullish on on it until until I think certain conditions have been mad and at this point I don't think those conditions have been met and so I will continue to push with the idea that it is in a systematic bleed against Bitcoin that ethereum is in a bleed against Bitcoin and the biggest Counterpoint that I always see asked in the comment section is well didn't the deflationary aspect change things right did the proof of stake change things okay should that not be considered right my rebuttal to that is that if it was such an important thing to change the market why didn't ethereum flip Bitcoin back over here at the merge and why have we just seen one lower high after another another ever since you have to ask yourself right these questions right if if fundamentally something changed then why has price action been putting in lower highs since the merge occurred to me what it would signify um is is that the market has sort of listened to those arguments and rejected them right and said well you know that's a great that's a great idea but it doesn't change the fact that you know we are likely to see ethereum bleed back to bitcoin uh for for likely most of this year all right now I do want to of course address something and that's the fact that of course the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has been rallying for the last four weeks but one of the things that I've said consistently and even if you go back and look at the last video that we did on etherbitcoin is that typically it puts in its final stand in May right that's what we often see is that you'll you'll see it do something in May and then from there that move gets faded for the rest of the year now last year of course we saw it happen right we saw this High here occur in May but it did not fade it for the rest of the year right so that aspect of it uh did not play out last year we have to recognize that we still saw it drop quite quickly going into going into the summer but again it rallied back into the merch okay but regardless if you go back and look at most of the time in history most of the time you will find quite frequently in fact that may will Mark local tops right this is May right here uh this is May right there as well if you go in right here in 2019 that is may you see a local top on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation right there and and we can continue on I mean you'll you'll see the ethereum Bitcoin valuation topped right there in May uh so let's see let's see what we have covered right we have 2022 we have 2021 uh let's let's put it on here for 2020. so for 2020 you can see that it didn't right the ethereum Bitcoin valuation was in an uptrend I will point out though that I was bullish again on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation during this time frame go back and watch any of the videos right from 2019 2020 it was very bullish on the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation so yes it was not a local top in in May of 2020 although I would argue that I was I was bullish on it back then it was in in May of 2019 it was in May of 2018 it was in May of 2016 let's put 2017 on the chart as well um you can see that in 2017 let me let me get this as accurate as I can where did the end of may occur on the chart here so right here so basically this was this marked the end of May and in that situation it rallied for what like two more weeks okay so into two weeks in June and then what happened after the second week of June it faded it until December right it faded it until December and then look in 2018 right a local top in May and then guess what right it faded it until December before seeing any type of a bounce back above the 20-week SMA look at it in in 2016. local top in May faded till December okay plenty of examples plenty of examples where you see a local top in May and then it gets faded until December in this case it faded until Q3 and it was at this point you'll find the very first video on my channel talking about how ethereum's Bitcoin evaluation was undervalued and it was time to turn the train around right time to turn it back around and go back in the other direction now admittedly we can't just live off the you know the calls of the past right you know just because this was a good call does not mean that my future calls on the ethereum Bitcoin valuation are are valid or accurate uh this one was right we called for it to go down and it did but then this one was not I I underestimated the resilience of ethereum in in 2022 and of course some might say that I'll underestimate it in 2023 as well and I'm not going to say that you don't have a valid reason to think that okay but be that as I may I still have to be honest to myself and go forward with the idea that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation is in a systematic bleed likely to last uh for you know potentially through September but also it could last it could go till December we've seen plenty of these these these you know plenty of years where the ethereum Bitcoin valuation sort of just Fades going into the end of the year now one thing to think about how we previously showed how you'll see it fade through that December time frame if you look at monthly Returns on The Ether Bitcoin valuation on average you will see that June through December on average is red now if you add one standard deviation on this it's not necessarily statistically significant to say what your average return will be but be that SMA again it does show you that the first five months of the year on etherbitcoin tend to be green on average but the last seven months tend to be read on average right on average you can see throughout the years most of the the last seven months of the year typically is rap right that's typically what we see especially the pre having year look at 2019. 2019 the prehabbing year look what happened in June through December it was just negative double-digit losses for almost every single month right if you give eight percent to if you just round up to 10 right but technically correct I guess it's not 10. there's one month where it went up 21 and then the other green month it was only a half percent gain look at the other prehabbing year 2015 when it launched August September October November December all red right all red so I would again still argue that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation is likely to bleed going through the end of the year so you know going back to the Chart here right if we just look pretty closely here at the chart you will find local tops in May almost every single year one exception of course as I as we talked about is 2020. we are bullish on it back then so I I feel like I can give myself a pass on that one um the other exception is 2017 where it actually rallied two weeks into June so there is a potential case where you could say all right maybe it goes another week or two but most of the years the rally faded once we got around to may even last year right even last year you can see that the real the rally faded in in about the middle part of May or so right now let's zoom in here because the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation has been rallying for four weeks right and we can see the valuation of ether Bitcoin right now on the screen I mean it's 0.06818 right about 0.0682 earlier today it was at you know 0.06847 so it's it's doing pretty well where's the bull market support bed on this thing it's around 0.06806 to 606812 so we're right around the 20-week SMA we're right around that 21 week EMA and we said a few weeks ago going into May that this is where it puts up its last stand right that's what I said um so we'll see right we'll see if that if that actually comes true or not we'll see if it fades the rest of the year or not we'll see if this is a lower high or not okay because I mean I I guess at some point right at some point we must at all questioned our our thesis and I continue to just go back to the idea that it's just a lower high and I mean that hasn't changed yet so until it changes why should I question it if it does change maybe that would be a reason to question it but it hasn't changed yet and so I struggled to find the motivation to actually question the thesis given that it's just been one lower high after another and and recently you can see we put in a lower low as compared to you know as compared to say app you know the merge happened we put in a low okay and then eventually we put in a lower low in 2023 so again I'm in the camp that you know if we if we sort of draw a path right I'm in this camp that you're going to see some type of a fade here where the ethereum Bitcoin valuation comes back down you know maybe maybe the initial impulse will be down to that 0.058 level okay so that's something something I I'm looking to see over over the next few weeks right I think we'll likely see it relatively soon now I want to talk about like why do I think that we will see it fade okay more specifically so there's two different outcomes that we should talk about for Bitcoin right so let's go talk about Bitcoin and what I want to mention on on this is the dominance so if I want to mention on bitcoin is that you have it sort of coming back into its bull market support band right now right it's falling back into the 20-week SMA you can argue that we've we've sort of tested it a little bit it's also been testing the 200-week moving average as well okay so in the event that it holds what would likely happen right in the event that it holds what likely happens well overlay the ethereum Bitcoin valuation on here right let's just take a look new price so we're going to look at the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation look what happens the previous time back in March where the the 20 week SMA held the ethereum Bitcoin valuation plummeted it also plummeted from the 20-week SMA right you can see that it plummeted from its bull market support band it was rejected by the 20-week SMA at the same time that Bitcoin USD held support clear as day right Bitcoin held support ether Bitcoin was rejected from its 20-week moving average the bull market sport band or bear Market resistance band if you will okay so you can see again it was rejected so put fourth thing that we would put forth the idea that if Bitcoin holds the line then eat their Bitcoin valuation should likely go down right we've seen the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation lag Bitcoin USD anytime Bitcoin sees some type of a pump right you can go look at a you know very small time frames and see that you know Bitcoin has has moved up a few hundred dollars just in the last couple of hours or so right we don't often look at like five minute charts but just uh just sort of point this out really quick um you'll see it happening on Lower time frames right you're seeing right now you see Bitcoin see right here so so Bitcoin sort of had this um had this rally right here and then you can see that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation fell back in right down to point 068 and not too long ago it was at 064. again I mean you're going to see fluctuations all the time by the time we get to the end of this video the valuation could be back at 0.0684 but the point is is that if we see Bitcoin hold the line at the 20-week SMA then we would exp I would expect not Financial less right I would expect ether to get rejected by its 20-week SMA just like it did in March right just like it did in March that's what I would expect anyways okay so rejection in March when Bitcoin held the line if Bitcoin holds the line again I would say rejection in May or June right whenever whenever it actually happens okay that's what I would say so that's scenario one what's scenario two well scenario I'm glad you asked scenario two is Bitcoin doesn't hold the line and it falls below the bull market support ban okay so what happened in that case what happens in this case well you'll notice that in 2019 once Bitcoin sort of went once the high was in right once the high was in you'll see that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation slowly faded right you'll see that it slowly faded and then it hit a low right it hit a low and then it sort of ranged on the bottom until what like the end of the year we didn't really go anywhere okay so that would in my opinion that would be the best case scenario is that it would just go sideways right but if we do not if we if we look closer at the data what I want to focus on is from this point right from 20-week SMA close below or sorry Bitcoin USD 20 closed below the 20 custom a until close back above right until close back above what happened to Ether Bitcoin during that time okay we talked about this in a video not too long ago but I want to talk about it again right now because there's actually a whole table that we can look at okay so throughout history there's a lot of examples where Bitcoin USD goes above its 20 week estimate or below its 20-week SMA and what we're interested in is when it goes above it and has a weekly close above it what outperforms from that point until Bitcoin USD has a weekly close below it right what outperforms is ether or is it Bitcoin let's go take a look okay so you'll see here um let me zoom in here so it's not as um hopefully you can see the screen pretty well let me move my uh so let me move my feed there all right so what you'll see is I guess I need to zoom out a little bit what you'll see is that nine out of nine times when Bitcoin closed below the 20 week SMA until they closed back above it the ethereum Bitcoin valuation bled nine out of nine times so if Bitcoin holds the line at the 20 week I would expect ether bitcoin's valuation to go down right if it holds the line because that's what happened in March and and I mean if you know me right I got the uh the dominance hat on right I think the dominance of Bitcoin is going higher we've seen this correlation happen throughout the entire year so far so why should it stop now if Bitcoin breaks to the upside either Bitcoin should go down if Bitcoin breaks to the downside and goes below the 20 week estimate then throughout all of history since ethereum has been around nine out of nine times The Ether Bitcoin valuation went down from the point when Bitcoin had a weekly close below its 20 week SMA until it crossed back above it however long that was there has not been a single time in history I believe unless I mean there's some that are sort of equal um but statistically I mean you have a you know a major difference right nine out of nine times the ethereum Bitcoin evaluation is more or less bled or stayed about flat when Bitcoin USD went below its 20-week SMA you never really saw a big increase on ether Bitcoin during the time the Bitcoin USD dropped below the 20 week until it until it went back above during that period of course any point during that period you can cherry pick and find places where it only went down or it only went up or it only went sideways but throughout the entire period measured from weekly closed below the 20 weeks we could close above by Bitcoin the ethereum Bitcoin valuation always bled and when Bitcoin was above its 20-week SMA the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has always gone up except for one time right because you might say well Bitcoins above the 20 week estimate right now right so history shows us that normally the ethereum Bitcoin valuation outperforms uh when Bitcoin USD is above its 20-week SMA right from weekly close above the 20 week to weekly close below not initially I mean right initially you know you might see Bitcoin outperform but from weekly close above to weekly closed below ether Bitcoin tends to outperform except for one time one time and that was in 2019 more specifically from March of 2019 until September so we had March uh so you have about six months right it was about a six month window where Bitcoin USD was above the 20 week but guess what ether Bitcoin fell during that time right it went down you can see that Bitcoin went up 106 percent ether only went up 29 percent there go ether Bitcoin went down even though Bitcoin USD was above the 20 week estimate right so it's the prehabbing year just like 2019 if Bitcoin holds the line at the 20 week which is a chance that it does right there's always a chance that it does if it holds the line then the expectation in my mind is that ether Bitcoin should go down if it doesn't hold the line and the reason I say that is because it's the prehabbing year this is the time that it you know the the correlation of ether Bitcoin going ah when Bitcoin USD was above it failed right so I would assume it would probably fail again pretty similar conditions right additionally we've already seen this correlation play out for the last several months so I would think that that Trend would continue so if Bitcoin holds a line I think ether Bitcoin goes down if Bitcoin does not hold the line I think ether Bitcoin goes down again nine out of nine times it has when Bitcoin did not hold the line nine out of nine times I mean look there's a first time for everything right but this is a this table you know I've been we've been following this since uh I mean we're gonna update this table since 2019 I believe now this has been going on for years and it continues to more or less work okay so going back right going back the the idea as I've as I've stated is that if Bitcoin holds a line ether Bitcoin likely goes down if Bitcoin does not hold the line ether Bitcoin likely goes down it's the prehabbing Year this is just the way it normally works in the prehabbing year here you can see that this rally by Bitcoin USD back over here again it started in March it was March through September let's look at monthly candles so it was three months up and then fade till September and The Ether Bitcoin valuation went down during that time right after we crossed it right so we had we had March goddess sort of above the 20 week right so March got us love it and then we had April May and June here January got us above it right and then we had February March and April is this where it starts to fade right like it did in 2019 it could be I mean this could be where Bitcoin USD starts to fade I mean it had three months after clearing the 20th SMA the biggest Counterpoint of course is that well back then we had three distinct rallies back in uh back in 2019 right we had one two and three this time we've only had two so there's a chance that you could see Bitcoin push higher I've contended for a long time that if Bitcoin is going to push higher this year I would expect it to happen in the first half of the year right so by June you know sometime in June is when I would expect Bitcoin USD to push higher if it's going to right if it's not going to then so be it right if it wants to fade here it can fade but if it's going to push higher I think it happens in June not you know five months from now I think it happens in June um because I mean from a time-based perspective normally we in the pre-halving years we you know we see a rally and then and then it gets faded at some point in that pre-heaving year over here in 2015 we sort of had two rallies during the prehabbing year and then both of them were ultimately faded so if this is going to mimic 2019 then again and I mean maybe you have until June and that would mean that you get one push higher but in that scenario if Bitcoin gets another push higher up to say like 35k or something which would be the time average year-to-date Roi from 2015 to 2019 if it pushes higher then ether Bitcoin likely goes down because it just simply I don't think it will be able to keep Pace with Bitcoin it hasn't kept pace this year I mean we can you can say whatever you want but I mean again ether Bitcoin has been going down take a look at at where Bitcoin USD crossed the 20-week estimate in 20 in 2023 cross it in January the week of January 9th okay now I know a lot of people might think that ethereum's only been bullish on bitcoin's pair this year right you might think that but if you go back to January 9th and look to see where ether Bitcoin was on the week of January 9th it opened on the week of January 9th at 0.075 okay so you can't really tell me that the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has been bullish this year I mean since Bitcoin broke above the 20-week SMA back in January it's just been down for ether Bitcoin I mean it's still down 10 even with this most recent rally okay and a month ago when we put out an ether Bitcoin evaluation video we said look guys may on average tends to be green right I mean on average literally every single every single May throughout all of history for ether Bitcoin has been green except for one and that was last year every single one on average it tends to give 19 returns but within one or two plus or minus 26.6 percent right one standard deviation is pretty high um but still I mean May tends to be green June tends to not be July tends to not be August September October November December they tend to not be on average I would expect you know if this is going to play out then you have seven more months I would say there's a good chance four or five of them are red for The Ether Bitcoin valuation four or five of them from here until the end of the year okay that's what I would suspect so I mean we've covered I mean we've covered the idea right I mean ether Bitcoin has it rallied in May yes it has so what it normally does we said it's probably going I mean it it's going to be the last stand so what it normally does one example where it went till June mid-june back in uh 2017 so keep that in mind like if you if it if it doesn't fall in the next couple of weeks it still could have I mean it still could Mark a local top in the very early part of June most of the time it occurs in May so if Bitcoin holds the line eat their Bitcoin Falls if Bitcoin does not hold the line I would expect to eat their Bitcoin to fall 999 nine out of nine times it has right so and then of course the other idea is is just sort of going back to this dominance idea oh you know the Bitcoin dominance and saying look I mean I I think in my opinion we we need to break this 49 level we've talked about this for a long time and you know back over here we broke it on a rally by Bitcoin USD and it wasn't until after it broke wasn't until after it broke that that Bitcoin USD saw any type of sustained correction right after the prior Range High of the dominance broke until that point Bitcoin stayed strong on its USD pair right if you don't like me comparing it to 2018 again so what I mean I'll compare to 2019. I mean even here if you look at this Range High from September 2018 you can see that once Bitcoin broke it in June right remember Bitcoin broke this Range High here in June guess what it happened on a rally right overlay Bitcoin USD onto this chart look at this what marks the high for Bitcoin USD it was when it broke the Range High on the dominance when the dominance broke the Range High it marked the end of the rally in 2018 it was once Bitcoin dominance broke this Range High right in 2018 right here in in July that's what marked the end of the rally once the dominance broke once the altcoin market was brought broke off support from their Bitcoin pairs Bitcoin stayed strong until then so I'm saying again that I think the dominance needs to get to 49 and sustain it you know and a lot of people have given me a hard time about my views on bitcoin dominance a lot of people um and they you know they they've said plenty of things but look what do I see I see a massive move by the dominance higher I see it consolidating up here this just looks like some type of of consolidation pattern for it to ultimately move up again and I don't even know that it has to wait for the 20-week SMA to catch up another way to look at it is to look at the uh the 100 day which it also helps support on I mean you can look at the bull market support and say well health support here held support here maybe it has to hold support again but another way to look at it is look at the 100 day and say well the 100 day also held support here and then here maybe it's the 100 day that needs to just catch up and it's already approaching 47 percent a more aggressive moving average which should also coincidentally held support on is the 10 week support and January support in March maybe support in May and if Bitcoin dominance can get above 49 percent then I I think it collectively breaks the back of the altcoin market right so that's what I'm looking for I'm looking for the dominance to get about 49 once it does I think we will systematically see the ethereum Bitcoin valuation bleed even if Bitcoin corrects right so imagine a world where Bitcoin rallies and the dominance goes above 49 and then Bitcoin corrects up until now a lot of times when Bitcoin goes down on its USD pair you'll see the ethereum Bitcoin violation go up you've seen that a lot this year right on those short-term Corrections ether Bitcoin goes up but bitcoinusd has been above its 20-week SMA if Bitcoin were to go below the 20 week SMA say in a month or two or something then you could see the ethereum Bitcoin valuation go down even on bitcoin USD dumps once the dominance is above right you set it 49 okay so I can I'll continue to hammer this point home until either it happens or I'm proven wrong and I know some people think that it's already been proven wrong but I would still say I mean look to me this just looks one like one lower or one one Higher low after another for Bitcoin dominance and for ether Bitcoin it just looks like one lower high after another right just one lower high after another every time we get a lower high everyone screams from the rooftops that that this is it and the the flipping is finally here you fast forward a few more weeks and you just look back and guess what it's just another lower high okay so you know I I I've we've talked about this forever One Reason by the way for the uh for the if you want an explanation for it not that I I feel like I have to give one um the only reason I would give one here is is I mean I I guess some level it's just rationalization right I mean you know it's taken a lot longer than I thought one reason that it might it might be taking so much longer right instead of just going down as quickly as it did back over here is just because there's so much more liquidity in the system today than there was you know back in 2018 and 2019. that's one thought right there's just so much more liquidity in the game and it's just taking a lot longer for the Federal Reserve to remove that liquidity but the liquidity is being removed okay and by the way I mean with the with the debt ceiling stuff going on I I believe they came to at least a sort of a handshake agreement we'll see if it if it passes but if if that actually passes then the TGA has to get refilled and I mean I would expect that would actually remove liquidity from the system right because recently it's been being drawn drawn down on and and liquidity has has been you know the liquidity drained from the FED it's been sort of offset by by the uh drawdown in the TGA but now that the debt ceiling is theoretically passed then you could see that be a a sort of a double whammy on QT because then you have the FED um uh draining liquidity and you had the TGA being refilled which also then drains liquidity theoretically uh and so on and so forth so to me right I just think it's a lower high and I know these views don't make me any friends I get it you know I really do uh it's kind of funny because you know I remember being I remember being that person a long time ago uh sort of laughing like like laughing at people that that held a bearish view on on a on a cryptocurrency that I held or an altcoin that I held on their Bitcoin pairs because I was very bullish on their Bitcoin Pairs and saying well all these all coins are always going to outperform bitcoin uh but they don't they don't and it's a lot it's a hard lesson to learn you know I mean look is there a chance I'm wrong on unether bitcoin yeah wouldn't be the first thing I'm wrong on and you guys know that it would not be the first thing I'm wrong on if if the ethereum Bitcoin valuation breaks up like if it does something like this and end breaks to the upside then I will and I will I will admit it I will say all right well you know it was wrong but until that time all I see are lower highs all I see is Bitcoin continuing to outperform ethereum uh during this calendar year I look at the prehabbing year and I say hey in the prehabbing year normally ethereum Bitcoin evaluation bleeds in in when the dominant says as low as it is normally the the Bitcoin uh continues to just Crush everything else including ethereum I mean look I'll give it to the east Maxis right I mean like ethereum's been crushing a lot of the altcoins a lot of the all coins are down on their ether pairs as well we know that right I mean go look at at a lot of the altcoins a goal I mean let's just take a look right go look at Ada eth I mean I mean I don't I don't talk about a lot of the all coins um as much in the public Channel now because I just think they're bleeding it's the blue chips look at a to eth I mean it's just been a dungeon for a long time look at Ave eth right what do you I mean look at this these things are just bleeding uh look at a vaccineth I mean just systematic bleed BNB East maybe not as bad right but it still has been bleeding since since the end of uh into 2022 link eth it looks awful bleeding forever you might say well maybe it's a double bottom maybe you're right but if you look at say like Ave Bitcoin wasn't really a double bottom it just put in a new low if you look at uh you know Theta Bitcoin you might have said well it's a double bottom guess what it wasn't it just put in a new low maker Bitcoin right it's coming into that it's coming into that level I think a lot of people look at these and say well it's going to be a bottom a double bottom but a lot of these are just put in new lows so look at the end of the day the altcoin market has been bleeding to ethereum right but also throughout this year ether has been bleeding to bitcoin I mean look look at uh look at 12 month candles if you don't believe me right it's there right it's not a lot right but it's still there ether Bitcoin is down 5.77 this year 5.79 okay so it is down you might say well that's not a whole lot I would agree it's not a whole lot it's it's not as much as I thought it would be at this point completely agree with you I completely agree with that statement but still technically the idea of it bleeding is not wrong I mean you know it'd be like if I had taken the other stance and said that it goes up during this year that would have been wrong and and of course people would have acknowledged that as being wrong so it is still technically going down and until it shows any other signal here I mean I'm going to assume it will continue to go down look at the uh look at the the last years like 2018 2019. the 2019 year for ether Bitcoin was worse than 2018. 2018 uh you can see that the the candle and there's some crazy Wicks but right they're just the candle was down 34 2019 it was down 49 percent so I think I mean I think there's a compelling reason again to think that the ether Bitcoin valuation is going down and then another way to look at this if I haven't given you enough reasons maybe I'm trying to convince myself at this point not you but if we were to look at the high kanashi candles for The Ether Bitcoin valuation let's go to monthly so we talked about this as well right you have uh sort of your impulsive move here a impulsive move here a and then your your your your your move to get you to your Peak on The Ether Bitcoin which is B same thing here which is B and then a lower high C lower high here C and then after C comes sort of just a a slow fade this one this slow fade sort of really kicked off in July again slow fade to me though it looks like we need this part that's what it looks like to me now if you don't like what I'm saying you know I understand and I will say that I am sort of instill in the camp that you know while I will say and again let me just say it right so you have lower highs right you have a lower high here we have all sorts of lower highs in here we looked at it on the weekly chart you also have a lower high here I mean like these are lower highs guys I mean everyone calls everyone talks about the flipping but they don't mention the fact that ether's Bitcoin valuation and putting lower highs in for since 2017. since May of 2017. or sorry since June of 2017. since June of 2017 the ethereum Bitcoin valuation has been putting in lower highs that is a valid statement is it not it has not taken out this level is not taken out this level this high in 2021 was lower than the 2018 High and the high in 2022 was lower than the 2021 High which was lower than the 2017 or 2018 high and lower than 2017 High so I would say the 2023 High is probably going to be lower than the 2022 high and so on and so forth and then what happens if you come back if you actually see the sell-off right if it comes back down here does it does it have to go back down to uh to 0.016 like it did last cycle I don't necessarily think so again I've said this before I think you could make the case that it's also putting in higher lows right and maybe it's on a logarithmic regression curve itself like Bitcoin USD maybe it's just putting in higher lows so it comes back down and then it pops back up and then we figure out what matters more what matters more is it the lower highs or is it the higher lows I don't know at this point but I still do felt compelled to think that whether it's a you know whether ether's Bitcoin valuation puts in you know whether the higher lows is more important or the lower highs I still think we go down before we figure that out I still think we go down before we figure that out and we'll see I mean look guys it's been a long time coming I know a lot of people are tired of these you know these ether Bitcoin valuation videos primarily because I mean in reality it hasn't really moved a whole lot in two years okay I mean that's the truth so I mean no matter how strong the Bulls have had their opinion no matter how strong the Bears have had their opinion the reality and the reality a check for both sides is that it hasn't really moved in two years okay so I would I would honestly say that until this high is taken out or or this low is taken out neither side has really gained any ground I mean we're literally right like right in the middle of the range right now so we we need to see some reconciliation of this at some point so that at least one side knows that they're right right there's a lot of people that are are right and there's a lot of people that are wrong and and you know we will find out who that is um Maybe not maybe it's me right I don't know but I will find that out anyways we've been going on long enough we've talked enough about this again just to summarize if Bitcoin holds a line I think ether Bitcoin goes uh goes down if Bitcoin Falls below the 20 week I think ether Bitcoin valuation goes down historically during the prehabbing year the ethereum Bitcoin valuation goes down liquidity is still being sucked out of the system which I think would make it go towards the higher market cap plays we've seen this in the tech stocks as well right the blue the Blue Chip Mega cap stuff has been has been going up the most um I think it's their flight to to relative safety and from the altcoin market ethereum has been relative safety as we showed right a lot of all coins are bleeding against ethereum and they have been for a long time but at the end of the day ether's bleeding back to bitcoin and so you know with that in mind I I think that Bitcoin remains a safer play and I think the dominance of Bitcoin is continuing its journey to break that 49 level and begin a rapid Ascent potentially to 60 if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up but again check out this the uh into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptiverse.com I'll see you guys next time bye

Channel: Benjamin Cowen

Views: 43,600

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTC, XBT, Crypto, Finance, Money, Investing, Blockchain, Wealth, Invest, Bull Market, Bear Market, Bubble, Speculative Bubble, Accumulation, Correction, Crash, Bulls, Bears, Mania, Fear, Greed, FUD, FOMO, Ethereum, ETH, Ether, Altcoins, Alts, Market, Markets

Id: pGFSZ7D6AJk

Length: 42min 40sec (2560 seconds)

Published: Sat May 27 2023