Welcome to the third episode of election results Special In the first episode, we talked about National Results, the areas, the parties and the overall national perspective. In episode 2, we talked about the big battleground seats and how they will influence our politics in the future In this episode - What happened to Modi? What happened to his magic? What will happen to BJP now that it has no clear majority? First, they have won and BJP say they still are single largest party so why India bloc is celebrating So the question is, when BJP has won, Modi will come, the Prime Minister, almost, Narendra Modi will be the next one. But if Narendra Modi becomes the Prime Minister for the third time, why is the opposition so happy? Looking at opposition feels like it has won. The context behind this is very important, why is today so important and why is it being compared to 2004? In 2004, BJP lost, UPA government came into power. Nothing like this is happening here. No power is changing. But why is there a comparison? Look, this victory is not less than the victory of 2004 because BJP had big money. The electoral bond is over, but the money of the electoral bond, 10x, 20x, whatever it is, it was with them So, it was money power. BJP had muscle power, man power. BJP has... because the workers are on their grounds and backing of RSS BJP had big media. The whole media is in their lap. By the way, big media is getting a little bit annoyed with YouTubers these days. We saw some clips where big media was trying to shame YouTubers. Anyway, shame is for whom? Everyone knows BJP chose election commissioners. Election commissioners got elections done with lack of transparency. We have seen how election commissioners have been acting. BJP had dominated the entire opposition. Many opposition leaders went to BJP got ticket or joined the party If BJP didn't do that, they split the party, split NCP, split Shiv Sena. The narrative that was there, that it will go beyond 400, BJP entered the election with great confidence. after the first round of elections, you saw how a change of heart took place. From peaceful campaigning to Mughal, Mutton, Mangal Sutra and Mujra. The reason for that was that BJP had already been convinced that the situation will get worse after phase 1. They probably had the exit poll after phase 1. Now, there is no doubt that Modi will remain as PM. Whether Amit Shah will be allowed to remain as an ally or not, is a question But, whether Modi or Amit Shah remains, one point is very clear that now the opposition has more strength to speak. Suspended everyone in parliament, that drama will not continue. Keeping the opposition under the shoes, this will not continue. It is possible that the media will also develop a spine And mainstream media also start speaking. Not only YouTubers, mainstream media will also start speaking with some inspiration from us Judiciary may show a little more courage. Because as a sitting Supreme Court judge told me once, that Supreme Court judges also give the same judgments which are given by the people around them. They don't operate in a vacuum When they see around them that democracy is being restored, people are speaking, questions are being raised, then they can ask questions Democratic Institution, you will be surprised to know that in our country, there is a body called NHRC, National Human Rights Commission. But the International Human Rights Organization doesn't recognize our country's NHRC saying they don't meet standards Forget NHRC... Our government is also not in good shape... You don't see it in mainstream media. But we have become a joke in many areas. So, overall, if you see, many mainstream things are going to change. Some political definitions, which I want to talk about, we have already told you the numbers, a strong, coherent, progressive ideology can work. It's not that there is no contest to Hindutva. We have seen how, by using Hindutva as a tool, and how want to make Ram Mandir an agenda and take votes And now Hindus are being abused because BJP has lost in the Ayodhya region. So is it about religion or is it just voting for religion? So as far as social welfare is concerned, aware politics is concerned, as far as the Rainbow Social Coalition is concerned, it is possible to defeat this laboratory of Hindutva. For this, you will have to take an accommodative stance. Remember, India Alliance won because they made a collection of parties. Congress did not win alone. Congress and the Socialist Party in UP worked together and that's how they won. If you look at Rajasthan and Haryana, they also consolidated because they were working together. AAP in Delhi and Congress could not work together, so they lost. You have to bring different communities together and with this you can make a movement. You can't take people for granted. One important word to remember - arrogance BJP thought they could take people for granted UP people are ours, we can silence farmers with water cannon can call Punjabis Khalistanis and YouTubers funded by George Soros We can crush everyone. We have the stick of Hindutva. But it can be defeated. This is not about religion. This is about politics. This is the end point of anti-Muslim rhetoric as seen in Ayodhya So, basically, what happened today? Democratic balance is being restored. NDA 291 is happening in the night. India alliance at 234 BJP is clearly less than majority. It has to depend on its allies - TDP and JDU These are not real allies... they can break too You can't bring bills without their approval in Parliament. For example, you can bring in Farm Law, demonetization, GST implementation or lockdown. Now you have to keep your allies in your company. Which is good for democratic balance. In today's episode, we will talk about what went wrong for NDA and what happened for India Alliance that they performed well Don't think that the India alliance has got a vote and it will become a big opposition bloc so your problems will be solved Not so soon. The problem of inflation will still be there. The problem of job will still be there. And to solve this, the opposition will have to put more pressure on the government. Earlier the government used to sideline, but now have to listen Remember, the start of 2024 was a layoff. Big companies like Google and Amazon are firing thousands of people as we speak. And the main reason for this is AI, Artificial Intelligence. In this situation, India can find itself insecure or secure. It depends on whether you choose AI as a villain or a friend. It will be more beneficial if you choose a friend. The solution is there at least in the tech field. I have a 3-hour chat, GPT and AI workshop. I have given the link in the description. This is a paid workshop but you are our special audience. You have pressed the bell icon in the silence of the night. You are among the 1000 people who will click on this link first. So, this workshop will be free for you. 10 lakh people have accepted this workshop. They have attended it. And with the help of this, they have taken their career to the next level. Whether it is smart job hunting, highly appealing resume creation, solving complex data in an interesting way using Excel, or personal branding, AI is used everywhere. We use AI in Deshbhakt. You will understand how we brought AI to our processes. If you are in the non-tech field, in marketing, in HR, content creation, founder, freelancer, you can benefit from this ... so first 1000 viewers who use the link below, course is free for them Anyways, back to the very interesting story. The country's electoral map has completely changed BJP has lost 30 seats in UP and has been pushed significantly in Haryana and Rajasthan. It has been decimated in Maharashtra. Where he thought they would get a lot of votes, couldn't do that well in Karnataka And where they thought would get rid of Mamata Banerjee, they had to back out. couldn't enter Tamil Nadu, and after doing so much in Kerala, won a seat. Now, let's try to understand state by state, major state and major factors, how this meltdown happened. How did this big surprise happen in Uttar Pradesh? BJP 36, India Alliance 43, and one to Chandrasekhar Azad How BJP lost 30 seats? There is limitation to Hindutva politics. Hindu religion is being used as a tool for politics. This is called Hindutva where Hindu religion is used as political tool And here, see the Rainbow Coalition. Godi Media used to call Akhilesh Yadav as Muslim Yadav party But this time, Akhilesh understood this and he expanded. He created a Rainbow Coalition, brought backwards castes with him and defeated Hindutva. Samajwadi Party gave only 5 seats to Yadav. Remember, there was a bit of family nepotism here too. But leaving that, he focused on Dalits, non-Yadav OBCs and other communities. They created a TDA alliance. They switched Dalits, who were traditional BSP voters, to India Alliance. So, Congress put in a good effort to mobilize the Dalit community and many Dalit voters joined the alliance. Coalition now became Muslim Yadav Non-Yadav OBC. And on top of that, Dalit voters - they created a deadly combination BJP got the upper caste vote bank but the rest was gone Did you see what happened in Faizabad? Awadhesh, a Dalit candidate, defeated BJP. The year you did Pran Pratishtha, it means that Mandir politics will also have an expiry date. You cannot keep people in the same place. It has its own limitations. Social engineering BJP was doing well till now. But not anymore. Why? Because if you have a clear agenda, a rainbow coalition, you can defeat BJP's muscle, media, manpower. And there is a lot of agenda. Who uses it? This time, in UP, it was used in a very good way in UP under leadership of samajwadi party Agni Veer, Unemployment, Expenses. This politics was played on a very clear level. That keep on doing Modi, Modi, Modi. We will talk about ground issues, not Modi. And the slogan of Constitution Bachao, which Congress put up, definitely had an echo, a resonance in the Dalit community. The strong social justice plan that was implemented to make the Dalits a part of the society......you can call it Mandal politics, but if Hindutva Mandir politics is being played......then you will have to play such politics. And the BSP factor is also very important because the BJP was thinking that they will make the BSP a B team......and this will take away their vote. But the BSP's own vote share fell by 10% and that gave India Alliance a lot of benefit The vote that was removed from BSP, was not sent to BJP, but to India Alliance. In Bihar, this was the attempt. Similar strategy like UP, Rainbow Social Coalition could have been made on the issue of social justice, against the BJP's Mandir Agenda. The problem was, Nitish Babu made a twist So, if you think about it, if RJD, JDU had done the same thing in Bihar, BJP could lose in Bihar Tejashvi had also campaigned a lot. Again, same. Employment, inflation, livelihood issues, social strong campaigning, youth mobilization. But this is also the base of Nitish Kumar. He knows social OBC politics well. So, Nitish Kumar, this base, So, Nitish Kumar, this base, imagine if Akhilesh from the SP had joined BJP, what would have happened, same thing But I mean, the model of politics in UP can be followed in Bihar. And the Hindutva politics can be defeated. The question is, JDU has 12 seats. Will JDU play a game with BJP or will they stay with BJP? This is a matter to be seen. That's why we have to cancel the holidays. A lot of politics is there. But let me tell you, this is what happened in Rajasthan and Haryana. Heavy losses for the BJP. Rajasthan, last time, BJP 25 out of 25. This time, 14 seat. India alliance won 10 Last time, in Haryana, BJP 10 out of 10. This time, 5 to BJP, 5 to Congress. So, last time, BJP had already peaked. They were thinking, let's peak this time as well. This was their own wrong thinking. This means that you cannot peak in a democracy because there are people and sentiments. And your governance is not as good as the media tries to tell us. Big understanding and big learning from this election. BJP wants to make the election presidential. But in Rajasthan and Haryana, Congress and allies have made it a local issue. They have made Modi magic fade away. Why? Farmer distress is a huge issue. BJP thinks that they have suppressed the farmer and fired the water cannon Don't forget that 30-35 people are committing suicide, not just in Punjab, but in the whole country. Yes, the people of Punjab had the spirit to go and protest, but distress, rural agrarian distress, is in Rajasthan, in Haryana, and in many other states How do you convert that into an anti-BJP vote? Takes work, it ain't automatic. But they did it Rajasthan, Haryana, Congress - Jat, Dalit, Meena, all these communities were joined This alliance stitching is dangerous. If tomorrow, all the members of India Alliance say that they are splitting, BJP will re-establish dominance It is only because Congress, CPM, BAP, RLP, AAP are coming together Now, look, this problem of abusing is going to affect Modi and BJP a lot. BJP, zero seats in Punjab. AAP and Congress got 10 seats, and SAD got 1 seat. Rest are independents. Why? Farmer protested, BJP ruined their alliance with SAD, and if you keep calling Punjabis Khalistani, it cannot be tolerated. Punjabis don't tolerate this, it is us Bengalis, anyways.. Maharashtra is another big state where arrogance backfired for BJP. NDA got 42 seats last time but this time only 18 seats. India up from 5 to 29 How did this happen? You destroyed Shiv Sena and NCP. BJP's bulldozer strategy of destroying and you will be ours has backfired. Because voters in Maharashtra understood that they don't want remote control from Delhi. So, they also started to question that you come from Delhi, buy our parties and destroy them. Do you think we will let this go? That's why Uddhav Thackeray Shiv Sena has more seats than Shinde Shiv Sena. Ajit Pawar has been wiped out by Sharad Pawar. Only one seat to Ajit Pawar NCP, seven to Sharad Pawar NCP. So India Alliance together is very strong. Everyone was trying to fight together. And that's why they performed well. The high-handed behaviour with Uddhav was not liked by the people. BJP tried to control the situation remotely. They have lost. Remember, there is agrarian distress in Maharashtra. And where there is agrarian distress, there are traditional NCP strongholds. That's why Sharad Pawar faction has won there. Now, let's quickly look at the South states. If we talk about Tamil Nadu and Puducherry, 40 out of 40 for India Alliance. Zero to BJP Annamalai had said that we will get double digits here. What happened? Nothing happened. Why? Because here also, alliance. Again, I am saying, there is no single party to counter BJP. Alliance has worked. BJP has ruined their alliance. BJP was overconfident to enter Tamil Nadu, they were with AIADMK They planned on their own. Because they thought there is no point in being with AIADMK. Now this was a big failure. BJP has increased its vote share. Increased it by 10%. But even Annamalai lost so it will take a lot of time There, India Alliance, they said, no, no, we work together. Strong campaigning on the ground. Worked with DMK. DMK has corruption problems. But AIADMK could not use it. And the strong ideological position of DMK could not be broken by NDA BJP tried hard to win. 10% of the vote But they were overconfident that they can only dent in this state. They were overconfident in Karnataka. But they could not make much dent with JDS alliance. BJP has also fallen and Congress has benefited. Now, it's fine, NDA has more seats, but the fact is Congress is slowly trying to come back here. Now, their estimate was 11, but it didn't happen. But JDS is also slowly getting over, so now between these two parties, we will see a hard clash in Karnataka. And we saw the same in Telangana. Congress underperformed, BJP tried hard, very good, BRS 0. And in Andhra Pradesh, very interestingly, NDA sweep, I keep saying NDA sweep, but what is the secret of this sweep? And why will it have a huge impact in national politics? NDA got 21 seats, 16 are of TDP, 3 are of BJP, Jan Sena, YSRCP, 4 seats. But everyone knows that this is a victory for TDP. Because 6 BJP MP candidates in TDP led alliance are TDP's candidates. So, the open secret is that the 21 seats are controlled by Chandra Babu Naidu and not by the BJP. Now, this means that what will Chandra Babu Naidu ask for in the opposition alliance? This is the thing to see. TDP has a huge bargaining power now. Will Narendra Modi be able to work in such an alliance? Vajpayee was a different person. Will Narendra Modi be able to handle coalition politics? This will be a big factor in the coming days One more important point that is very important to mention is that the urban dominance of BJP, clearly educated urban voters, after watching the news at 9, say that everything is fine. BJP's core voters. And they have given more votes to BJP this time. India Alliance, where it has fumbled, AAP and Congress couldn't work together, in Delhi's urban areas, they got zero So, this shows that in urban areas, there is not much sensitivity to issues. They believe more in campaigning and media. But in rural India, if you see, NDA has gone down dramatically, and India Alliance has gone up dramatically. So, credit to the rural voters. Because they understand the reality. Let's talk about West Bengal. 18 seats in 2019. TMC 22. Shocker result of this time. TMC goes up to 29. BJP down to just 12. BJP lost 6 seats how did this happen? BJP has to understand that not a single model cannot work everywhere They took action against TMC, blocked funds, campaigned against media but TMC kept fighting. So, BJP is still losing against strong regional force. Congress and left, very interesting, they also maintained their 11% vote share. BJP thought they will get the vote of the Left -Congress. They didn't get that. This Hindu-Muslim strategy, which you have implemented in North India, you are thinking it will work in West Bengal. It did not Over-dependence on Hindu-Muslim is not going to work everywhere. And then there is the woman factor, which BJP unfortunately can't play. Smriti Irani has lost. So, for Mamata Banerjee, women angle works... All the pollsters, fraud pollsters, exit pollsters couldn't understand this thing about West Bengal So, NDA has got majority. No problem. Then why are they not laughing? Why is there so much silence on Twitter? Very soon, end points, BJP will be completely dependent on TDP and JDU. JDU has 12 seats, TDP has 21 seats. So clearly, 33 MPs who are not in fully BJP control. So, this means that technically they are in minority and cannot depend on allies 100%. This means that BJP cannot pass such bills as they wish. And we have made a very important episode on this about delimitation. And delimitation will reduce the numbers of South, will reduce the number of MPs there Now, will Chandra Babu Naidu pass the bill without his permission? Or will there be any anti-Muslim legislation without JDU? Will JDU be able to dent its vote bank? So, there will be a lot of considerations. BJP will be weakened in Parliament, cannot change things as they wish Most importantly, the invincible image breakdown has happened Now, no one can say that Modi cannot be defeated. Demi-God image has been shattered. This will motivate people in state elections, they can do something in Maharashtra Haryana Jharkhand If the number of BJP members can be reduced, then the constitutional changes that were going to come , that can be averted. And after this, we can hope that the institutions and civil society will get a chance to live a little. That they too will be able to keep their independent voice ahead. They too will be able to check the government. The check and balance of democracy is an important part that was about to end. So there are many parameters which will change with the democracy. Authoritarian tactics will be less or some desperate methods will be adopted. But the biggest challenge with India Alliance is that if they stay together, they have to work together. The election is over. Will they be able to mount an effective opposition? Will they be able to do the constitutional role of the opposition? We will be hopeful about this. This was our episode number 3 on day 1 of the results These results are very big. There are many meanings behind this. And there are many other considerations behind this which we are going to do in the next few days. But this was episode 3. I hope you liked it. Do like and subscribe to the channel. There is a lot more to come. Many thanks for watching. I am recording at 12 at night. AC in our office has stopped working many hours ago. But our small team is working so many thanks for watching
