EP-173 | Exploring India's Election Influence on Neighbours with Tilak Devasher & Ajay Bisaria

the success of India's elections this is a kind of model for the world Imran Khan let the cat out of the bag before the last election where he said you know if Modi comes back it will be better for Pakistan the IMF and Pakistan is the longest lasting love affair ever known to mankind it predat Sony mayal Romeo Juliet everything yeah in end up in a divorce after every program when India in its Parliament decided to Abate or revise article 370 I happen to be in Islamabad I had some inkling this would happen but not of the kind of reaction Pakistan would have China is also very keen on extradition treaty with Nepal so that the free Tibet movement people who are in Nepal that they can get them back are they still monitoring them yeah yeah very much what happened in Myanmar is three Insurgent groups two in the Shan State and one in R they got together and the ones in Shan State actually were being egged on by China and then the kaladan project and this India Myanmar Thailand project are also going to be held up so your entire neighborhood First Act East policy is now almost hostage when I had protesters outside my mission in Ottawa they would be uh waving Kashmir flags and khalistan flags the same bunch of guys so you know it was buy one get one free kind of situation Taliban is a very peculiar case many countries have engagement with the Taliban but no recognition or no diplomatic presence in Canada there's a public inquiry commission going on looking at uh the Chinese interference which is supposed to have taken place twice in two of their elections the cek which is the part of is not really moving ahead if at all if you want to describe it it's probably just limping and barely limping cek was be called China Punjab economic Corridor because the Chinese FY Punjabi Namaste jind you're watching or listening to another edition of the an podcast with Smitha prakash the topic of discussion today is India's neighborhood how are the countries in our neighborhood watching the Indian elections my guests today are Ajay bisaria and tilak deeser Ajay bisari is a former Indian ambassador to Canada Pakistan Poland and Lithuania who's recently written a book Anger Management on India Pakistan diplomatic ties he's appeared on the podcast before also in the studio is another repeat guest the deeser author of several books on Pakistan and Afghanistan Dak deeser is also a member of the National Security Advisory Board we brly will be discussing how countries in our neighborhood are impacted by elections in India are they watching it with anxiety interest or Envy thank you so much gentlemen for being part of the podcast I'm really looking forward to chatting with you uh but first I I need your permission may I address you by your first names please absolutely I don't want your fan base to get after me Ambassador and you have somebody in the National Security apparatus and casually not at all okay thank you so much so um since you're both practitioners of diplomacy and statecraft um I want to make this conversation about how our neighborhood is watching this election um are they watching it with anxiety or are they watching it with interest um how are they watching it let me start with AJ since Canada Pakistan uh these are your postings which I'm very keen on of course I'm not interested in Poland right now so let me talk about Pakistan I'll get to you too uh you've just written this book also on Pakistan we just ran that in the introduction um how has the reaction been to uh elections in India are they looking at uh it something as something of the ordinary that just happens or is their interest to see how uh the election is moving you know I think the big picture is that people are not expecting any dramatic change so uh the expectation is that there would be a certain degree of continuity uh in India's government and also in India's policy but having said that for most countries uh when there's a new government there's a time for some kind of tactical adjustments so I think uh this is what uh most countries are expecting and particularly in the neighborhood because they watch India more closely and understand India much better so I think the overall expectation is of uh continuity uh with some changes uh which could be more of a tactical nature what uh like tactical nature in the sense that their tactics have to change if it's a Modi 3.0 or their tactics will change if it's an India Alliance so I think there you'll have to deconstruct it and see how each of the different neighbors would see it because if if we see our neighborhood today what do we see we see two hostile adversarial countries we see China and Pakistan to our West and we see two dysfunctional countries which is uh Afghanistan and Myanmar and possibly one more hostile country which is Maldives but for the others uh there is a different set of circumstances for each and I think uh for each one of these uh the uh for for uh Bangladesh for Sri Lanka I think they expect a certain continuity in policy there's a pause certainly while this election process takes place but then we would expect to move on with a certain degree of continuity but with a reexamination of the relationship uh and some maybe new Innovations that might come uh if the expectation is that there is a Modi 3.0 which will be a even stronger government uh than before so will there be a legacy term issue of uh of leaving a legacy of even stronger relationships right til let me come to you um do you agree with that that uh they expect continuity uh in India and you even monitor Pakistani media uh so how are they looking at it with anxiety or was it that you know a a Modi 3.0 would mean uh a more uh more of the same which means no engagement with Pakistan I think there have a resignation and acceptance that Mr Modi is going to come back resignation okay you know that we better get used to it and plan accordingly which means no visas no conversations there is there is a I would not say optimism but a little bit of u a feeling that a new government in Pakistan Shabah Sharif and Prime Minister Modi sent him a congratulatory message there'll be a new government in India shash Sharif will send a congratulating message elections will happen and statehood will get restored to Kashmir in September or October so that there is a feeling that this could be Mark a Point of Departure for a new beginning because it gives Pakistan a face saving one of the things that they have been talking about 370 they know 370 is going nowhere not going to come back but at least restoration of statehood in jnk having elections and having an assembly having a popular government gives them something to go back to the people they you know things are different so that I think they they feel that could be a Point of Departure for some sort of a few hesitant steps and then they feel that you see they have to walk back they are the ones who called off the high Commissioners in a wasi directly they stop trade so they have to walk back they have to express their um determination not in a press statement in response to a question but a formal proposal will have to be made at the mea to mea level so there is this kind of a little bit of suppressed optimism but acceptance that the same government and the same muscular policy is going to come back that if we don't behave on if something goes AI then India is going to react even more strongly than what it has in URI and in um in balakot so that is very much there in in Pakistan so is when you say in Pakistan do you mean uh the forges or uh do you mean the elected government because uh in India or even in Pakistan the view is the sharifs are kind of soft on India but will that happen how do they see it yes in in the past Naas Sharif has always tried to yeah you know make an opening towards India but he has not had any support from the Army because there was the Lor bus yatra with vajpai and he came for Modi swearing in ceremony in 2014 so these are two waterers shed marks as far as India Pakistan ties are concerned with the PM also PM Modi also went to went to yes to lore yeah but at all occasions the Army was not on board yeah since 21 there is a Feeling the Pakistan Army seeing the writing on the wall seeing Which Way Pakistan's economy is headed and where Pakistan is headed there seems to be some sort of an you know straws in the way that the Pakistan Army could be on board to have a normalized relation with India you know the back Channel talks which led to the ceasefire in 21 the Islamabad security dialogue where bajwa made this famous statement of converting geopolitics into geopolitic geopolitics into geoeconomics and move towards peace that kind of a thing Imran Khan that time was not on board for a CH whichever Army Chief makes that comment he's shifted out then about normal C no n Baja got his extension huh Baja got an extension okay so they will make these harsh sound you the other day the foreign office spokesman made a similar kind of a thing that we should not become a party to Indian public discourse and you know p is very much a part of Pakistan so these kind of harsh statements will be made but I think below the surface they will be hoping for some sort of a breakthrough everybody agrees that by not trading with India Pakistan is suffering bra is one thing they also realize that India doesn't need Pakistan's trade it is Pakistan that needs trade needs lower prices curb their inflation Transportation costs are not so they getting the same good via Dubai or Singapore and paying that much more so they realize it is to their advantage not to India's Advantage I'm going to come back to the uh the trade issue because there's a lot which on Pakistani TV you hear karati and you know you can expect karat will be on Focus because of the sharifs and then you have Abdul Basit saying that trade should not be on Focus we should not lose focus on Kashmir so I'm going to come back to that just remind me but first i'm going to talk about the normaly a which uh T talked about what really is normal or return to normaly when we come when we talk about um Pakistan you've written this book on Anger Management so tell us about your posting in Pakistan both of you have done postings in Pakistan so tell me about your posting and then when you were sent back what happened and your book also on this so what is the normaly sure so let me start with what tilak said I agree with much of what tilak is saying uh and really speaking the ball is now in Pakistan's Court you know they are watching uh the Indian elections and the decision point is do we go back to 5th August 2019 uh what did we do then we sent back the Indian High Commissioner we downgraded the missions and we uh banned trade so if the noises about trade are that we should restart trade uh with the new Indian government and so on do we start that or do we ask to go back to February 2019 pulama when India uh imposed a 200% Duty on uh on trade and asked India to uh you know reverse it or do we go back even further to uh the December of 2015 when Prime Minister Modi made this unannounced trip to Lor on 25th December and greeted Naas Sharif on his birthday at the end of which there was so much optimism in the air that we are now uh you know moving to a comprehensive dialogue and and the relationship is going to take off so we do we try to erase is the bad memory of all the terrorism that happened do we go back to that point because you suddenly have The Coincidence of the same situation you have Navas Sharif more or less um in in power and a BJP prime minister and a BJP prime minister and uh Prime Minister Modi likely to be back so uh in fact now Naas Sharif after his visit to China is expected to take over again as the president of the party after uh a break of 6 seven years and have a much greater say in governance and as the was saying we also have a coincidence of this being a same page government so the Army this is a hybrid government so the Army which has a greater say in all foreign policy and security decisions seems to be on board and I would agree with tilak that from about 2021 when Pakistan started going through a poly crisis it has made this so-called pivot from GE politics to geoeconomics which is essentially to say that look my economy is crumbling I need to reimagine the way I run this country and therefore uh trade with India is part of that piece but may I interrupt you I when I said BJP prime minister I thought you're talking about uh when Modi went in 2014 you mean now no when when uh PM Modi went in 2015 15 so the decision point is so it was right what I said was right I was just wondering what you're talking about now okay no I was talking about then and the question really is when which uh era to turn the clock back to yeah okay the various waterers shed moment exactly because uh if you recall 201415 were moments when we had a pretty good relationship going with Pakistan and a conversation going so um PM Modi and PM Naas Sharif met five times and uh the conversation was very constructive forward looking it's just that we got derailed by the terrorism that started in 2016 and then accelerated after that when were you posted there as High Commissioner so I went in in a down cycle in the relationship which I went in in 2017 but the interesting thing about this relationship while there you know you could argue there's been a down cycle from 2016 till today uh we we are at a low but even within that period I was there of 2 years there are micro cycles of some positivity this balakot and yes so balakot happens in 2019 Article 2 uh 370 happens in uh in 2019 but between before that there were some conversations There Was You Know attempts because what happens is in 2018 we have Imran Khan elected and the initial conversation was can we do business with Imran Khan and he made the right kind of noises when he came in the Gara and everything karur talking of karur and talking about uh you know you take uh one step I'll take two steps and so on but before he could get going we had pulama so you know acts spectacular acts of terrorism become deal breakers in this relationship all through right from the '90s if you see that you know um even with when bajp went in 2000 uh in 99 with the doti to it was Carill that happened and subsequently you know terrorism and Parliament and so on so I think it is a story in at least in this Century of attempts at peace interrupted by terrorism and violence except that now India has had a muscular response 2016 and 19 which is air strikes and surgical strikes which has set up a sort of deterrent uh to this kind of behavior and on top of it what both tilak and I are saying perhaps the Army is beginning to realize that uh this policy hasn't paid off and that perhaps the pivot to geoeconomics also means better relations with all neighbors and particularly uh better relations with India with whom we could do some trade okay so trade so let's come to the trade part which huh you see look at Pakistan today it has got major problems with Afghanistan over the Duran line yeah it has got problems with Iran so China is one you know all we the friend but three out of four neighbors and it was okay if Pakistan could sustain that kind of hostility if it was doing well it's not economically it's literally looking from IMF bailout to IMF bail out and there AA is not helping America he's G but you know even Saudi Arabia and even China are not um what they thought that they would do so and with India it's a low hanging fruit India is a low hanging fruit because of terrorism they have to shut the tap off what is India saying that no Terror talks no trade with Terror right so it's a low hanging fruit for them if they want if they really serious about it they can pull back they also know Kashmir is out they not want to get anywhere near Kashmir anymore you know it's not going to work it is how do they sell that to their people and one other Factor before trade which I've been thinking a lot you see in Pakistan people don't realize how much India has changed in the last 10 years they are still stuck in a Time War you know secular India and turning the other cheek and terrorist incidents would take place and India would not react lot of people don't realize that India has changed fundamentally in the last 10 years not only is a muscular government and a policy but the common Indian to says enough we don't want terrorism we don't want this kind of a thing and we don't want you so is Pakistan more comfortable dealing with a weak Indian government for example if a coalition government when I say weak I don't mean weak as in um May maybe a coalition government doesn't have a kind of a muscular policy or will not shut doors so easily take these kind of decisions because they're trying to save their Coalition more focused on domestic issues so uh is Pakistan more hopeful of an India Alliance where you know foreign policy may not be completely the focus point they would prefer instead of dealing with a strong government one party government which has a strong leader they would rather deal with as in the past you know coalition government pulling in different directions like they would be more comfortable with a meua Muti and on Omar Abdullah uh and other Kashmir leaders in in power in Delhi rather than uh you know right now as a fringe player in in dealing with Pakistan isn't it yeah because a they know them they know them they know how they're going to behave and what is their where they're coming from in the case of the BJP and KSM Mr Modi and the other ministers they don't realize how much they have changed India you know I think because the representation or the media has not had a presence over here so when this look at India has suddenly this aggressive power fifth largest economy doing you know going to become the third largest economy and not really concerned we have shut up uh Pakistan as it were you know Pakistan doesn't make a difference to our policy yeah Economic Policy political foreign policy anything that is something they're not used to and they can't they can't accept Pakistan it's being ignored I mean is a double page interview with uh prime minister Pakistan doesn't figure anywhere you know that's what is happening with all the interviews that the prime minister is giving Pakistan doesn't figure and I don't remember in recent memory when that happened you know even when dealing with foreign policy issues it doesn't though we have started this conversation on Pakistan but still in foreign policy matters it it just doesn't uh figure as importantly as it used to and in fact Smitha there's some Nuance to what thak said you know there is also a strand of opinion in Pakistan that doing business with the BJP makes it more sustainable so the same argument uh in fact Imran Khan let the cat out of the bag before the last election where he said you know if Modi comes back it will be better for Pakistan because then they feel there'll be a certain coherence in policy any deal that you do will be then uh you know more likely to be agreed to so there would be that uh narrative that having a strong government in India and having the army or an army supported Army uh LED government in Pakistan is the best time to have a long-term contract uh which is sustainable because you know we've done deals with weaker governments and where the Army was not on board and then they they kind of imploded and didn't work so just like it took uh Nixon to go to China in uh 1971 you know it required a strong Republican government to do a deal with a communist U country it uh the feeling also in the Army and in some circles is that uh we'll have a more sustained deal if we do it with the BJP if we do something with a weaker government and the BJP even an opposition opposes it then it is not a sustainable solution uh let's move a little bit from Pakistan we'll get back to Pakistan Bangladesh shika's awami league has had historically closed ties with the Congress uh so initially I think there was a little bit of ion as to how will a BJP government under Modi function with uh vajpai she knew about it but Modi was a different ball game but then there were others in the Modi government who were you know who took the relationship forward awami League um how has that been because the BNP has been quelled so right now India is dealing with the awami league only not with the BNP so how is Bangladesh looking at elections in India you see the the interesting thing about uh sh K on the other side and Prime Minister Modi here they've been together for 10 years you know shik Kina has been the prime minister in Bangladesh the last 10 years is Mr Modi and if he comes back it's another term and she's also just been reelected in January and you know like I had I had gone to Dhaka to interview her and uh with uh shikina she has very warm ties with the Gandhi family uh not just with the congress party with the Gandhi family and historically because of you know indraa Gandhi and all but she seems to be very warm having very warm ties even with Narendra Modi yeah because you know a it's a government to government and she knows where the national interest of Bangladesh and awami leag has got C close relationship with the uh the government and also I think you know most Mr Modi has a very friendly style whenever all leaders you know he gets along well with all leaders so there is that personal chemistry also and a 10year long Association and could well be into the 15 years so that is is one part of it there are many things which have brought or bringing Bangladesh and India closer together there's the connectivity you know the train links the Energy Corridor with setting a in a pipeline Health almost 50 large number of people from Bangladesh come and get treatment in India the two blips in the relationship which I think in the next term are going to be important one is a Tista you know some sort of oh God how many years yeah because now what has given urgency to it is that China is building a barage on the Tista about 100 km from the border which is also very close to the chicken neck in the Siliguri Corridor so that gives an immediacy to the that you know you need to solve it and one of the reasons why it is not being sold is because it impacts the federal relationship between the West Bengal government and India so I think some and that is even though Mamta and sheikina are very good friends yes on a personal level mango diplomacy and fish diplomacy all that happens but when it comes to Tista yeah so even when Mr Singh was a prime minister when he went to uh Daka she St that Thea agreement then so something will have to be done I think in the next term including the conclaves exchange of conclaves but that happened yeah that happened yeah but you know the Thea the water is something which is LIF very emotive and a very popular thing you know which will can R up people huh the second is the BNP started this but so that means that cannot be resolved even then even if Modi comes because Mam's still there no there are engineering Solutions okay there are engineering Solutions and this this uh thing has been studied in the past and people have come out with reports in your book also you have this big section on water wars and how water is important so it there are engineering Solutions possible but there has to be the political will on the part of the West Bengal government that look this needs to be done in the larger interest of the second issue is the India out Campaign which BNP has started you know after the elections after sh Casa was reelected so like in Maldives there is this India out campaign boycott Indian Goods so for example this but I liked what sh Casina said that if you're going to be boycotting Indian goods are you going to stop wearing sis you know she immediately turned around and said that if it's India out are you going to stop wearing sis and it's something that you notice when you in Bangladesh That You Don't See salvar is all that much women whether Islamic or non-islamic are wearing s that's a cultural thing you know to me yeah it's not and uh s so it's been there for you know ever since so this India out doesn't really work it works because for example this time in Raman people noticed there was a drop in goods from India being bought such as you know for whatever you buy for Raman new clothes for children and things like that there was a drop of purchase of Indian Goods so India out is not only reduce the dependence but also boycott Indian Goods okay this impact shik K's government because it's been a very strong Economic Policy of the government you know Bangladesh today is a 400 billion economy $400 billion economy a lot of it is due to the economic program of sh kazen if you start boycotting Indian goods and the garments Etc all come because of imports from India if you impact that then economic prosperity of Bangladesh gets affected M so while on the surface it is India out but it is actually impacting shik Ken so these are the two issues that India will have to look at in the coming months in the next election okay and I would agree that the economic equities are very important because you know you have a Bangladesh with $18 billion of trade and 8 billion of lines of credit that is making a huge impact on the Bangladesh economy and even apart from the fact that we've Sol the land Maritime and a lot of River issues so I think that also adds uh to the fact that a more a prospering India uh in the future will be make for uh prosperity for Bangladesh as well okay so that leads me to Sri Lanka and males the India out thing on Maldives and lines of credit and uh Prosperity when it comes to Sri Lanka so let me get to males first uh the relationship is now downward trajectory so tell me how will a new government in India whether it is um Modi let BJP or a coalition which comes to power whoever comes to power how will this relationship change with males how will India have to deal with this well the hope would be that males would also normalize you know uh the larger picture is that it suits a lot of smaller neighbors to play two large neighbors or two large Regional pars against each other and to benefit from both now in the case of males it is really playing on against the other in the sense one out and the other in and a more sensible policy even from Mal's point of view is to benefit from both these large countries both the prosperity of both these so hopefully this cycle will change and a new government gives you reason to reexamine your policy and do some kind of tactical readjustments in in what you're doing uh so I would I would say that uh the ball again is in Mal score to on how it deals with the new Indian government and how it uh it decides to you know make this adjustment or this correction uh to what I think is a strategic error um made by the Mal but after this recent uh vote on account of whatever uh that he's got uh he he's going to get more aggressive and then what we haven't discussed till now and we will talk about it uh in the show about the dragon in the root his relationship with China so you know he's going to get closer to China president muu fair enough he will get closer to China and all the countries in our region will have some equities with China but does it make sense for you to say I will only have China I will get India out or does it make more sense to say I'll get grab what I can from China and grab what I can from India so I think that is where the Tactical adjustments would have to take place because in contrast s Lanka for instance when it went through a very tough time India put in $4 billion India India was the uh uh the immediate responder in that particular crisis and that has deepened that relationship so I think uh it makes sense uh for all these countries to uh deal with India uh in a sense of uh trying to get the maximum benefits out of India's economic power and prosperity and uh also get something out of China at the same time right on mes now if you notice muu is now more no nuanced position when he said India Out means uniformed Indian soldiers on the platform you on the uh air assets so he he's now sort of because see it's one thing for elections you know elections is Silly Season in all democracies everywhere people say all kinds of things but now that he's won the presidential elections he's won the Parliamentary elections more than a 2/3 major it he's now comfortably in scon for the next 5 years so as you said even he when he met Prime Minister Modi I think it was in New York or some other place where he said we not stopping any Indian projects so India continues to build that bridge from Mal I think about 6 kilomet long uh Bridge connecting some other Islands malis took part in a naval exercise with India so and the humanitarian projects continue they continue and also now they're asking for more uh I think also said he doesn't want to be dependent only on one country for staple you know for food fuel salt you know things like that Rice Rice yeah so just you know to spread it out so I think if we also and we have played our cards I think very maturely we haven't gone off in a half you know we've talked about this uh uniformed men and they've come to a compromise so I think we've also handled it well and I think this will what going to continue uh after the election I'm going to ask you about what Ajay had said about uh Sri Lanka also so what is your take on this because the line of credit and things which we and the aid that we gave I had the Shri Lankan High Commissioner on the show and he was talking in terms of you know so much that uh Sri Lankan Sri Lankans can benefit within Indian economy which is on an upward trajectory so you know it's a smaller economy so however much they grow they cannot resolve their economic crisis unless they are you know be part of the same success story or same India story if they tag on with us their trajectory will go upwards sooner than it would if they were to do it on their own uh do you see so there's a lot of recognition in Sri Lanka that we actually bailed out with as a mentioned $4 billion China didn't you know China was more keen on projects you know as part of the BR or part of the Columbo port and all but India was UPF front which helped them bail out and you know gave them a lot of assistance so that's established you as said the friend in need is India then there are so many other things you know like uh Sri Lanka's handed over Hamot airport to a joint company of the U India and Russia they going to be managing hamont TOA Port which was constructed by China airport sorry not Port Airport China right yeah constructed by China but the management will now has been handed over to India and and Russia electricity you know just like Nepal is now using when to use the Indian transmission lines to sell electricity to Bangladesh Sri Lanka can benefit a lot from this so there are lots of areas on which this cooperation can go forward and Sri Lankans you know also realize it the elections are due in September in Sri Lanka the presidential elections so um let's see who comes and what kind of a policy or in Sri Lanka in fact airel is going to be becoming the biggest provider because it's going to take over the local provider dialogue and uh so you know there are a large number of equities if you see the coast of Columbo you have Taj samudra you have ITC you have you know so a a good deal of economic Prosperity has come uh via uh doing business with and tourism you know tourism whether in males or in Sri Lanka largely dependent on uh tourists who are coming in from India and when social media took off on males on their tourism sector and then you had prime minister posting that picture sitting in lakad it resulted in such a cancellation wave that happened IND to dropped to number five position yeah so many cancellations in MDES and they were uh you know I think they had some Road shows in India they planning to have Road shows I mean when you if you open Instagram I'm I don't know whether you both are on Instagram but Instagram was always filled with uh Indian celebrities holidaying in there or uh Indian celebrities honeymooning in males even Indian journalists going uh to mes on these holidays and posting out there so they that was there that stopped not just trickled out it just completely stopped influencers all this matters a lot to a country where the economy is based on 20% of GDP is on tourism on tourism so um let's move to you you were mentioning uh even Nepal so I'm I'm going to talk about Nepal now a that the political situation ever since it you know decided to become a democracy you know in stability uh governments changing all the time toppling over coups happening and uh coup in the sense of political coups happening um it's it's in such a confused state that it is um Mr Modi had made these very emotional uh appeals to uh Nepal and there was a lot of connect with the nepales population Nepali they don't like being called nepales with the Nepali population uh there were these romantic periods you know with Hinduism Hindu pashupatinath all those things happened but then again you have the China angle out there so tell me how do they see this are they comfortable with uh Modi 3.0 or are they more comfortable with um left parties being in a Coalition in an India Alliance setup how will they view it well there is a bit of a left element in the Nepal government at this point of time but again I think uh talking at least to theom diplomatic community in Delhi they have very realistic appraisal of uh what is going to happen and their assessment clearly is that there will be a Modi 3.0 and we've got to uh uh got to do business with it so I think that is the uh realistic way in which they will go forward we had their foreign secretary here and uh and you know exchanges and uh our foreign minister was there so we are having these conversations U with Nepal and again I think the same uh phenomenon will continue that Nepal will also try to see where its interests are whether it can get something out of China as well and something out of India sometimes by playing the two against each other and sometimes by simply getting something out of India and something out of China but you know I would uh make a larger Point as well India's relations uh with its neighborhood it's particularly as part of neighborhood first which has been a policy in some shapee or form from the '90s is that uh you know we will be disproportionately helping in your Prosperity but please help us with security don't give safe sanctuaries to uh to you know anti-india elements and we will be helping you disproportionately in terms of security so this is what we saw in Bangladesh this is what what we saw in Sri Lanka and this is indeed the message uh to Pakistan as well that if if you if you take care of India's security concerns India could become a partner in your prosperity and I think that would be a a similar sort of message that uh the Nepali uh would also have uh taken from India and I think because of their internal incoherence and and and uh multiple changes it's it's not clearly expressed but certainly I think in a Modi 3.0 we will see more tactical adjustments yeah on on on Nepal you mentioned rightly the political instability after the elections in November 22 there's a third government in power headed by prachand first he had a tie up with the uml KP onlyi that broke up in March 23 then he tied up with Congress yeah and Nepali Congress that carried on and now he's back to the uml now again it's inherently in St uh the somehow finds it convenient even though he's leftist he will take anybody's support so long as he's in government yeah so it's a Nepalese I really like communist ideology which in the in this part of Asia and you know he has the lowest number of seats he 30 odd seats everybody else is about 70 or 60 yet he's managed to get them around but I was saying both oie and he are very strong people and both want to be prime ministers so I don't see this Coalition lasting for a long time either only if you remember any when he was prime minister earlier he had a strong China first policy M and relations with India were pretty uncomfortable they were not happy with our maps and you know those kind of things now that he's back so the but it may not go to the same extent as it was there earlier the case of china which is the uh you know the yeah let's talk about China Dragon in the room you see the the Nepal signed the b in 2017 since then there have been no Pro hasn't taken off so this time the expectation is because of only there something will happen China is also very keen on extradition treaty with Nepal so that the Tibet free Tibet movement people who are in Nepal that they can get them back are they still monitoring them yeah yeah very much Tibet is their priority you know it's an still yeah very much very much but for India but haven't they quelled all opposition all rebellion in Tibet you know if you're not a democracy and if you are the kind of system that China is you can never relax okay you never know when a blip will blow up so it is a constant constant watch okay but with India there has been some good positive development you know integrated check post have been opened up uh the communication connectivity is more and now there's digital connectivity when Indians go on for travel and tourism to Nepal they can pay using UPI you know yeah the digital connectivity is there but anyway the Indian rupee was acceptable only up 100 rupe notes anyway but wherever people go you you to carry Tas of 100 rupe notes you know which is so but I demonetization when that 500 rupee thing you could still exchange it in Nepal that's what people used to say you could exchange it even in India in India okay so let now that we have touched China so before we go to Afghanistan Bhutan and myamar which we haven't talked let's talk about uh China how can we not right now uh the Indian government uh invited 25 Global parties to observe these elections um no invitations extended to China and Pakistan China doesn't have a democracy Pakistan has this absurd uh experiment of a democracy so what kind of message was India sending to China at that stage why not invite China what was the problem well I think uh inviting China is always a good idea let them learn what democracies are and you know it might help and you know it's it's actually only half fous this remark because India democracy has been quite a beacon for the entire region and uh you know I think Nepal and bhutan's gradual movement to genuine democracy was because of the inspiration of this functioning democracy in fact I've dealt with Central Asia and several countries there would want uh help in running in setting up their election Commissions in in all the mechanics of uh running a democracy and and a functioning democracy we've gone all the way into Africa and uh to set up absolutely ABS to set up you know uh the the structures for democracy so I think if the Chinese had come and learned how a democracy is run it wouldn't have been a bad idea but but you know on the relationship um I would think uh you no one really knows how the Chinese mind uh Works uh they certainly don't want a Modi back I yeah but you know they also recognize that that is a reality and that is going to happen so I would think that the uh Modi 3.0 government will give some reason for them to correct the Strategic error in my view which they made which was to do this salami slicing and unnecessarily jeopardize their relationship with India and from their point of view also send India deep into the Embrace of the west of the Quad of the US relationship for what for just doing some salami slicing and getting a little bit of territory in the high Himalayas uh so I think it was an error uh which they made and there is a possibility that they would uh try to correct this in a Modi 3.0 in in the sense that they may realize that having 60,000 troops eyeball to eyeball uh may not have given them any particular benefits uh particularly because in a geostrategic terms they have alienated India sent it into more Western Embrace and possibly also alarmed many other countries in the region about the kind of biger and Chinese Behavior you know when we talk about the B you spoke about B and Nepal uh and that no projects happened uh B in Pakistan uh despite the attacks on Chinese uh workers out there the brri continues to go forward they even attacking the Japanese now uh in uh in Pakistan so this attack back on foreign Nationals in uh in Pakistan and in spite of that work continues because one had heard earlier that if if the Belo uh Rebels if they attack uh Chinese the B won't go forward but it it's happening no you know two things here I don't think so the Japanese were the targets it was a mistaken yeah the security guards died though they were Pakistani but it was a bomb proof vehicle so it was I don't think Japanese were being targeted at all okay and the cek which is the part of H is not really moving ahead if at all if you want to describe it probably just limping and barely limping you see initially when the Chinese wanted to invest about $62 billion but that investment is peaked to about 22 maximum that also four five years ago no fresh investment no new projects are being taken up nothing in Gad no it's it's as it was as it was even the desalination plants you know which was to provide water to the is not being done and in fact so much so so that the power plants which China has put up in the Fast Track in the first phase which are online but the electricity being produced is so expensive because the rate of return promised you know with Sovereign guarantee something like 22 22% so the electricity generated is so expensive that uh people can't afford to buy it so some plants have shut down in fact the other day I was reading an hilarious thing the world over is going on solar energy here that or whatever is the organization they are protesting that people should not go in for solar energy because then who will buy this electricity what Pakistan has done because of CP they built the power plants they didn't focus on transmission lines the transmission lines are very poor they can't handle the load and they frequent breakdowns so you have Surplus energy but no transmission and electricity is too expensive so the real Ro mess and so if people start doing solar energy then you can imagine be investment which has been done and fish they have to pay and the Chinese power producers are saying you pay us the money because they have been lent money by Chinese Banks who was saying now pay us because our balance sheets you know whatever we need the money back and Pakistan says yeah so they keep going to running to China to to roll over a you you've been posted in Islamabad uh more recently than uh T's posting in Islamabad so when you were there uh that transition was happening where Pakistan was moving closer to China as compared to uh to America um tell me a little bit about that uh that flux that was happening at that stage yes and you know uh then the the pakistanis always wanted to balance uh the uh their equities in the west and the US and China as well all that changed a bit in 2021 because once the Americans withdrew from Afghanistan on 15th August 21 then uh the uh it it lost sort of strategic interest in in Pakistan because it didn't require it immediately for access to Afghanistan so uh Pakistan tended to move more into the Chinese camp but what we've seen recently is they don't want to give up those equities in the west because that unlocks uh you know the uh the legacy of the f-16s and other equipment that they got in the past and more importantly the IMF program so the Pur strings are controlled by Washington and therefore they don't want to uh alienate the West be Beyond a point but their strategic dependence on Pakistan has deepened and you know as tilak was saying it was clear even while I was there that cek was dying that it was a plan that would really freeze at $22 billion and what they had even apart from the fact that Imran Khan was questioning it you know they he used to call cek was be called China Punjab economic Corridor because the Chinese felt Punjabi you know shabash Sharif was taking care of their projects but in baluchistan and other places they were being blown up or threatened and so on so they are U were quite worried about it even apart from the fact that the IMF was demanding that those books be open and the Chinese are very non-transparent about the rates of return and what they're getting and the IMF demanded you know very naturally because you know we giving you money are you paying it off all to the Chinese so that was a very legitimate question they get money from ADB or something well you know but you can't fool them only when the IMF pays you first exactly nobody will pay nobody will give you anything so you can't fool all the people all the time and uh when they go for a 24th IMF program even more the IMF will be even more aggressive in opening these aggressive I have uh commented on this before that the IMF and Pakistan is the longest lasting love affair ever known to mankind it it predates Sony mayal Romeo Juliet everything end up in a divorce after every program okay I like how you take this forward but you said just now that cek dying do you think Naas Sharif going to China uh is that Revival of that uh trying to get a dead body to you they they might uh do some adjustments with with China but certainly not on cek because uh the Chinese will not be betting more on Pakistan in terms of economic Investments they might continue with a strategic bet they will continue with a strategic bet but uh they will have to see it as Grant you know it's not something that will uh give them returns and particularly this leg of the corridor which goes through baluchistan that is u in in deep trouble so they might want to do a couple of projects in Punjab with Mariam Naas Naas sharif's daughter who's Chief Minister there and uh otherwise but you know the whole cek uh bit in in guad and baluchistan is under threat threat okay this conversation is also about security matters nsab so that's why I'm going to ask you about myamar uh demystify this whole thing uh the military losing control over large tracks of land I believe uh for India how do we see myamar situation you know we have we have security issues we have uh issues of uh people coming in from from that side of the Border we have uh various issues when it comes to myamar so tell me uh are they viewing our elections and how will we deal with myamar post elections no so I think there's no interest about Indian election because it's so caught up in their own things but there are two separate issues one is the what is happening inside myar how it impact indan security and our projects so refugees infiltration as it's called in Hindi all that comes under the rubric of you know security secur and our projects you know the kaladan project the uh India Myanmar Thailand trilateral road that is being built so what happened in Myanmar is three Insurgent groups all uh two in the Shan State and one in rahain they got together and the ones in Shan State actually were being egged on by China because they had [Music] U they had started a huge gambling plus a cyber cyber sort of a scam which was directly impacting Chinese citizens and China wanted the mymar Army to shut it down so because they were not shutting it down for whatever reason so they propped up these one is called the uh um Myanmar National Defense Army and other is the Tang National Liberation Army and the arakan Army in raken state so they went up into a coordinated attack which is now being called as uh 2710 on 27th October 23 and they were joined by The kenis Who took off on 7th of November you just goes to show how the nothing is reported in the Indian media very little very little on this and it impacts us and it is a neighbor which impacts us yes and so they have taken over you right very vast tracks and what if impacts us is in arakan chin and sag because these is the areas which border India and Military has lost control on these and L control here and also in Shan state which is the largest state in Myanmar so there's a fighting going on and one of the key areas as far as we are concerned in rakan is Po you know which directly impacts the kaladan multimodal transport project and there the arakan Army has now offered India that you talk to us and we will make sure that this project goes through how can we talk to two different exactly so Indian's policy is that you talk only to the government yeah China on the other hand because they also have a project you know they have the chu Fu Port you know which is the end of the China Myanmar economic Corridor like they have cek in Pakistan they have China Myanmar economic Corridor so they are talking to the Insurgent groups so they have a far more nuanced policy doesn't it undermine no because they feel a lot of people feel and I've written about it that what if there is a split in Myanmar you know this is something that we need to watch very carefully that if the J not just a rebellion but a complete split yes that if they lose control and they set up their own governments huh you know and and uh then what happens so you are going to be dependent on these Insurgent groups so you need at some stage you know this is something which the new government will have to take a call on yeah here that you know what is it that what are we going to do about this and then the the one other element which I think stuff that we have to deal with it's like uh we didn't want to talk to the Taliban but you willly have to talk to the Taliban similarly the arakan yeah the other thing is this is the arakan Army which is Buddhist huh but there is also the arakan salvation Liberation Army or arakan rohinga Salvation Army which are the rohinga Army which they did a drone attack recently in nap not only that in 2017 they had massacred a village of Hindus about 100 Hindus they had massacred and they were then Mass Graves have been found so they are vly anti-india anti- Hindu these r years and they are waiting to set up some sort of a rohinga land if possible between Myanmar and Bangladesh where they will be based and then a whole lot of insurgent groups you alqaeda Isis you name it will find sentury over there so these are I'm speculating how does Bangladesh look at it of course they're also worried because they the largest rohinga um refugees in their land right if among all the other countries which bought arm movement there the arm movement is in Myanmar but it's a major security concern for Bangladesh the ringas there it'll also be for us it'll also be for us so this is what is happening in Myanmar so we have to take a call on a whether you want to talk to the insurgents at some time or the other to look after your interest and then the kaladan project and this IND Myanmar Thailand project are also going to be held up so your entire neighborhood First Look East act East act East policy is now almost Hostage to this because apart from the kaladan project you also have to build a road from sway going into mizoram and tripura you can't build that road if this kind of a fighting is going on there then apart from these Insurgent group you also the national Unity government the national Unity government are those um elected representatives who were in that K in 21 that is nld that is Oni party have come away and have set up their own National Unity government which has been recognized by the European Union as the legitimate government of mymar so there are that also so who are we going to we have to deal with all of them now because that's a call which the government to Onan sui right or AI she's been on house doesn't matter no she's in house arrest house arrest how do you talk to her so when she was out yes there was very strong even earlier when she was under detention and uh medication she's not a consequential player anymore right see in politics you never know you never know so you can't write off uh anybody okay as I say in Pakistan even when a person is under ground you still wait for 40 days you know before you so vmar is zardari those who had written off zardari that his time is over and now look right Myanmar is a very critical neighbor we have to keep an eye on it because Chinese penetration in Myanmar is very strong you know they are literally sitting uh sitting over there yeah and this Myanmar economic Corridor CH you know and and F which is very close to sway where we are building a kaladan multimodal transport so all these developments have we have to watch very carefully so l e let me get to uh Bhutan um the Prime Minister the last foreign visit that he did was to Bhutan um what is happening out there in Bhutan uh would they want is Bhutan looking at elections in India does it matter because whichever party comes to power in India I don't think the Bhutan policy ever changes uh you know I think the it's always the first visit uh to a foreign country is usually to Bhutan uh for an army Chief uh for uh the intelligence agencies for for prime ministers so uh is Bhutan looking at Indian elections with anxiety or just with this calm sense that yeah they watch it with the sense of Zen it's the happiest country uh in the region and it's the most trouble-free relationship we have they of course watch it and we are fortunate to have a a king a leader right now with with a very positive kind of disposition towards India but I think what we need to keep watching is the Instinct in all our neighbors would be to also get something out of China another big neighbor in the region and and I think we should be okay with that as long as it's not harming our interests in a significant way so I think uh this is again uh Bhutan is a very strong relationship with so many equities built over decades and we should obviously retain those and and uh at this point of time it's a very very strong relationship where the bhutanese will be watching the election but only be too happy to support whichever government have we actually had this kind of a myopic attitude or is it something that has been forced upon India that um either with us or with China make this to are we doing this with our neighbors are we bullying them to make this Choice well I don't think we are but you know it's also a danger yeah it's also a danger that you can get into because you know you it is a strategic competition with China so you could take the view that you know it's a zero sum game it's not because if they're getting something out of China and uh in our interests are not being hurt then then we should be accepting of that reality and I think our policy is moving in a more pragmatic Direction in general which is deal with the world as it is rather than as it should be and uh and you know uh interes particularly with um uh even Pakistan that's why I make the argument that we should have a continuous dialogue with the Pakistan Army overt or or covert or behind the scenes because they are in charge so let's not fool ourselves uh into saying that you know we are promoting democracy in some way by not talking to the Army because we need to promote our national interest by talking to the folks in power in whichever country we're dealing with I think where India gets riled up Vis A China with security concerns come in you know for example the Chinese research ship in a doct in Columbo exactly yeah that's when we told that String of Pearls thing yeah so that you know that our headline is that right now they a research ship in mes though they say that it is not carrying out any surveys in mold so it went out it came in January stayed for a week then went out 2 months it has been serving that area around now it's back in uh in the Mal so this is something which India gets perturbed about I think economic or commercial India doesn't react any are present more in the Indian Ocean or is China more present in the Indian I think it is still is yeah okay I think it is still but the Chinese formulation is that it is the Indian Ocean it is not India's ocean I think we can test that okay so since we talked about the happiest Nation let's get to the most troubled nation which is Afghanistan uh and those of you who haven't read please do read theak dear's book uh so let's not the pashon till let me warn you right now itself we've done with the pashun I want to talk about uh Afghanistan uh are we engaging officially I'm asking you are we engaging with the Taliban because we had this uh really ier than thou attitude that you know there's no good Taliban bad Taliban it's only Taliban we've obviously matured now to realize that we have to deal with them so where are we in with regard to Afghanistan and is is our policy going to change whichever government comes to power uh in June 2024 so you know the there was a delegation led by The Joint secretary in the me recently if you remember two months ago had gone to uh um Kabul and met with the government the foreign minister and things so yes there is um you see Taliban is a very peculiar case many countries have engagement with the Taliban but no recognition or no diplomatic presence right it is engagement is because you need to deal with whichever government is in power in Afghanistan Afghanistan is too important a country to be left by itself so you need to have engagement the primary concern for India is a humanitarian because we've had over the over decades centuries in fact we've had good relation People to People contact with the Afghans and especially the pons I had to bring that I have to bring in okay so we don't want to lose that so when humanitarian assistance is concerned whether it was V whether it was vaccinations that is there we also have security issues because at one stage you would recall that Pakistan had parked the lashkar and the Jes in two training camps over there and it was very interesting that you know when um us carried out missile strikes in Coast the dead bodies came to Pakistan so people in Pakistan asked questions that if this is in Afghanistan how come the dead bodies are coming to Pakistan because Pakistani terrorists anti-india terrorists were based in Coast so our security concern is to sensitize the Taliban also that look you have to take care of our security interest if this relationship is to develop further so that's what we are stressing okay a I'm going to come to you regarding uh the khalistan issue even though we are discussing neighborhood uh you we cannot not discuss uh you know what is happening in Canada and since you've done a posting you've been Ambassador uh just uh yesterday uh Justin Trudeau attended the kalsa day uh parade in uh in Canada in Toronto if I'm not mistaken and there you had this holding with Modi and you know with names and then there were khalistan slogans raised because it in involves Pakistan also which and you have done a posting in both these You've Been High Commissioner in both these countries tell me is this how is how are these two countries which is um khalistanis in Canada khalistanis and Pakistan because they have refuge in Pakistan how are the khalistanis viewing Indian elections clearly they don't want Modi because they V shoot threat against him uh they want him off what I want to know is that when is this issue going to get resolved why why this obduracy on the part of the Trudeau government not to figure out that this is detrimental even to them what is it you know so there are two Dynamics here one you referred to is Pakistan for Pakistan just like it was in the ' 80s and '90s a lowcost Warfare uh against India to try and exploit a fault line is also to finance and help and fan uh khalistani movements overseas you know so when I protesters outside my mission in Ottawa they would be uh waving Kashmir flags and khalistan flags the same bunch of guys so you know it was buy one get one free kind of situation that they were uh they were possibly funded by the same kind of people so there is a certain sponsorship but in Canada it's Unique because you know this khalistani issue is a fringe issue in in several geographies it it's there in the US in the UK uh in Australia and Germany they're not in government in in Canada they are exactly but what is different in Canada is that it enters into local politics yeah you know and uh in in this particular case you know you have a party called the NDP uh with headed by jmit Singh which is a sort of Junior Coalition partner of the current dispensation and therefore they have a disproportionate say in uh in the way the Prime Minister behaves by making statements in Parliament by attending uh clearly uh radical events so I think uh that becomes the problem and it is a continuing problem in Canada because diaspora politics becomes very important because a large number of citizens come from overseas and therefore they bring their politics to Canada but I think it is in Canada's own interest to at some point say that you know let's be governed by our national interests not by our wasted Di interests and by our the political groupings and be driven by a national interest which in Canada's case is certainly a strong geopolitical alignment with India you know Canada's own indopacific strategy ironically is the most forward leaning of the western indopacific strategies because it says uh China is a disruptive power India is a critical partner But the irony is that this noise level which we managed in the India Canada relationship which is always there lurking in the background often becomes very high and it kind of you know uh upsets the political relationship significantly yeah but this one is the worst where we send back diplomats and all this kind of uh slide in relationships have never happened even though we've had the kanish episode we've had we've had terrible terrible episodes in the past Terror incidents relating to khalistan but diplomatically didn't get affected as much uh as it has today I don't know you would know better in a sense it was contained in the Diplomatic sphere because we continue to have more than $90 billion of Canadian investment in India and that continues to mount and uh so what happened was that in diplomatic terms the messaging had to be given back and forth and uh this this was a strong message that came out of India but I think again uh Canada has to learn from the US on how this situation was managed because we had a similar set of issues with the United States where we said that you know these are serious security issues are Security Experts on both sides should deal with them and you know answer them satisfactorily but if you elevate them to the front pages and to the political level then the noise becomes harder to manage the whole situation becomes much harder to manage so I think uh it is a case of Anger Management that we require please for our viewers and listeners do buy uh AJ's book anger management let me come before I come to you on this khalistan issue I have to ask you about uh your book and about uh what your tenure like was there uh tell me a little bit about when you had to come back yeah so you know ironically the most fascinating week in my entire tenure was the one where I had to leave because that a hot spot no you've been in Canada as well as in in Pakistan during the worst possible time well you know Canada was uh not in so much trouble then so some people accuse me of creating trouble but not me sorry okay yes go ahead with Pakistan Pakistan uh has uh multiple paradoxes you visited Pakistan and you know the Paradox is that while you're dealing with hostility during the morning you're talking to diplomats very politely during the afternoon and you're doing jppy puy and having uh great parties in the evening yeah with the people uh and very schizophrenic exist and uh you know that's one of the paradoxes uh so it's a kind of manufactured hostility at the official level and it also changes very rapidly so you know it's a challenging uh posting and I make the argument when I talk to Young diplomats that you need diplomacy in all relationships but you need it even more in hostile relationships because then you need to be more creative and finding ways to have those conversations navigate those conversations when things are tough so I think Pakistan for an Indian Diplomat is quite an exciting posting you know overall it uh there would be moments of hostility moments of worry but uh I think by and large uh it it opens up the possibility of being creative and you know looking for Solutions with you in all my visits to Pakistan I just felt this is so unreal this country is unreal there is you cannot pin it down that H okay I've understood this country I mean what was your experience and tell me about that period when you were to come back yes you know so it was certainly surreal in the sense that it seemed exactly like home but home at an angle to itself with something has distorted there and the week I was coming you know on on the 5th of August um I had exchange it exchange text messages with Minister J Shanker I was telling him something about something that was happening and he sent me a text back just watch TV at 11:00 so I I had an inkling that something was a foot but I didn't know exactly what so once uh uh you know uh the the events unfolded Pakistan went into high Panic you need to tell us because there might be some people in uh in our viewers and listeners who are who live abroad who may not know so can you give me a little context to that yes so this was the 5th of August 2019 uh when uh India uh in its Parliament decided to abrogate or revise article 370 extinguishing the special status of jamu and Kashmir and I happened to be in uh Islamabad on that particular day and uh I I had some inkling this would happen but not of the kind of reaction Pakistan would have and what we got in Pakistan was a huge overreaction because Pakistan's own position stated by its Army multiple times is that article 37 is a bit of a ruse it's it's a fake it's not real autonomy for Kashmir but they reacted very strongly and said that India has um done the siege of Kashmir and India has surreptitiously taken over Kashmir and so on so I um the way the events unfolded is that they said that we should shut down the Indian Mission we should ask the Indian High Commissioner to leave because of all this trouble that has been created when was the last time it happened when an Indian High Commissioner was asked to never never in the past even during the wars we they they were never really expelling high Commissioners they shut down the consulate right Karachi shut down yes Karachi was shut down in '96 and uh we also had a situation during the wars in 71 where the Indian High Commissioner no was actually arrested and then sent back but uh never expelled we withdrew a High Commissioner after the attack on India's parliament in 20 but this was high commission then Mr nambar Vijay nambar was the High Commissioner and India asked him to come back uh so in a sense in a technical sense we withdrew the High Commissioner Vishnu also came back right Vishnu prash Vishnu prakash came back as part of overall exchange of uh reduction in the size of the mission so that was also a trouble was it the hijacking of the no that was 2003 huh uh so that was in I think 20023 uh that's the time where Jalil abas jalani was asked to leave because uh he was caught giving money to the hurat uh so so then reciprocity and then in reciprocity a large number of people were returned and so on but so this story goes on in this relationship but you know it it was very interesting at that point we didn't know what Pakistan would do whether it would close down the mission whether we would have to burn our records and move out or whether it would only ask the High Commissioner to move So eventually it was just asking me to move I was given 72 hours so I had to do decide what to do with my two uh staff in my house and so on and your family had come back and my family was here in Delhi at that point but uh we we worked it out and then I moved out and then my house was packed up only later so is an Indian Ambassador always ready for um for these kind of eventualities in a hostile Nation when and you posted not the High Commissioner but the other officers are yes because you you were posted there so tell me a little bit about that uh I you always aware that something might happen and you might need to leave because you know time I was there crisis after crisis in fact Pakistan you were saying what kind of a place if nothing happens for 3 4 days then you should be really worried that you know something is going to happen in the high commission some incident will take place in so you always so the officers have one case packed okay and you don't keep valuables you don't take valuables I believe right because you don't know when you will will have to leave no papers no valuables okay tell us some incident which uh which you can talk about I I it's now all blocked locked up in a trunk and which you will never tell us right as to what happened so when I write by autobiography maybe I will but you were tailed and all the time all the time so you're constantly aware that uh the house help that you have or the phone calls that you're doing it's all tapped and it's all reported so for for a long time for many years afterwards i' would always be looking in the rear view mirror you know psychologically who's following it's not so now but for many years after that you know you just get ATT tuned and whenever we had to discuss something we would go on the lawn and uh talk in the lawn what needed to be talked about but not in the house not in the car cuz you just presumed but when you dealing with uh with Pakistani uh officials out there do they ask you about uh Indian uh politics or do they they know they they know everything about Indian politics is it how it is no no it's it's a which way do they lean see at that time there was just one Congress yes what about you which way do they do you feel because you we've seen man Shankar a going and saying that you know those kind of which way do they leave I mean I know that there was this Grand love affair that they had with vajpai G because they they adored him and they adored Lalu yadav they there was so much curiosity like in Afghanistan there's incredible curiosity about Bollywood everybody wanted to know about Salman Khan and I hadn't seen Salman Khan films so when I went to Kabul and they kept asking me about Katrina kef and Salman Khan I was like really I I don't know about it and I then you know I was like my God I should read up on Bollywood before going there and you know know crazy about Bollywood about Bollywood but they know but the love affair with vajpai and with Lau yadav two politicians they adore what was your experience absolutely and you know they remember that but it's at two levels you know one is the official uh kind of Islamabad they watch India very closely they understand India very well and and you know they try to spread an official narrative which is even different from their understanding but for instance one thing is clear to to them that uh there's a hugee power differential between the countries now and when then when you talk to the people that's a totally different game they want to know where Shah ruk Khan stays and whether I've met him and you know whether he could possibly they think you're nothing exactly you know you don't deserve the discount but you know some of it is now spilling out into the public domain in podcasts such as yours coming out of Pakistan because they are talking freely about benchmarking themselves against India against the world and they're seeing the difference and they are talking about it fairly openly so you know you see uh which way uh the younger Pakistani is thinking you you need to see some of the kind of stuff coming out on social media which is very open and uh very self-critical often and uh and often not hesitating in uh expressing a good deal of admiration about what's happening in India you know the first time I visited Pakistan uh I was impressed like anybody who visits Pakistan not now any Indian who used to visit Pakistan their roads nice broad of course the Americans built them but still broad roads and then Islamabad in Islamabad yeah no even Islamabad to lore when you would drive that's the motorway thanks the motorway right because of Noah Sharif so you would be impressed of course under you go to there busties they are like our in inner cities or like even American inner cities they're quite bad but what I'm saying is that those you things used to impress people then I met with pakistanis who came to India and the their first impression when they see the indraa Gandhi airport that was the first biggest airport that we had they felt at that my God these people who had only Ambassador and fat car airport Al you know it's like that change happened and now you're listening to Pakistani podcasts and Pakistani television shows where they say that you know is that now translating into uh we need to get out of this hellhole this economic mess that we are in you know that works on two levels one level lot of these programs YouTubers they know the market is in India so a lot of them are the clicks that they're getting yeah the number of people when they praise India they say good things about India what is and India oh bloody it's only for clicks so lot of I'm not saying all some of them are genuine then you have the most serious people who are talking in terms of facts and figures not just U drawing room kind of talk and things who talk in terms of facts and figures you know India going to the moon for example Landing in a place where nobody else has done that is the kind of admiration that is genuine you know they appreciate it you your fifth largest economy moving to becoming the third largest economy and the kind kind of um Bridges what's happening in jnk the kind of situation but then a lot of the other people are these people to get views because uh YouTube pays but come say come there is a conversation you know and it's not those 10 people who had a monopoly over uh the Pakistani narrative who used to come to India and meet with the 10 Indians you know there were these D UD say say they were the only ones there's a democratization in this space more people are expressing views and that's a nature of social media and the good thing is that Pakistan hasn't completely clamped down in it but the uh difference between the official narrative and what people themselves are seeing and sensing has become huge so it's harder to sustain the official narrative about an India that is persecuting its minorities and you know terrible things are happening while the others are seeing the images seeing the facts and figures and putting a different narrative so that becomes a challenge for the Pakistani establishment you know uh a we talked about this during the Rina dialogue also that the street affecting the state you know what is happen when Street I don't just mean uh rallies and protests when I say Street I mean people uh who did not have official uh sanction to say certain things now there is so much of conversation happening that the state cannot ignore what this street says it's happening across the world uh is it happening in our neighborhood too whether it is in Nepal whether Bhutan well Bhutan not so much but Nepal Sri Lanka Pakistan Afghanistan is that impacting on official reaction on official policies you know I would certainly say yes you know the street definitely and because people uh in government or in power are seeing the expression of popular will so in Pakistan certainly I would say the pivot to geoeconomics is also partly because popular disaffection people are angry with the Army angry with the politicians angry about price Rises I would argue even in Afghanistan you know the kind of Goodwill we got out of $3 billion that of Aid that we uh gave and the help that India gave the kind of uh expression of Goodwill that expressed itself I both in the ghani government and through the Taliban government we are seeing a lot of Goodwill uh towards India a lot of desire to for people to get visas and come to India and so on so I would definitely argue that uh the street influences uh those in power they cannot be oblivious to those sounds Sri Lanka for example the rajb are removed from Power thanks to the street yeah the one who protested so much and over a prolonged period of time when Sri Lanka was going through the financial crisis similarly in Bangladesh you know there have been a lot of uh uh protests which has made governments more aware in Nepal recently you I don't know how it will ban out but the protest in favor of the monaki in Nepal you know again so all over again yes after how many 40 years yeah 35 15 20 years ago it so again how this treat and you see in the case of Pakistan when you have a cult figure like Imran Khan you know and the kind of protests and the movements and Etc which he had you know the public rallies that he had that certainly Shook Up The Establishment especially because of his personal attacks against the Army nowhere in Pakistan to my memory has ever take on the Army in the manner of which Imran Khan did and he charged the people but when he went on a long march twice that was not so successful see people are willing to go to a in in the subcontinent people are willing to go to a j and all that but when it comes to a long march you're putting itself out 15 days 20 days people are still reticent you know so yes the street does impact but what the Army also has its handles and its levers how they manage to take care they pick up the second round second tier leaders you see after 9th of May incident those people are still languishing in jail is going to be where is the second R third R you still have the sharif's calling the shorts no no I'm talking about Imran Khan's party particular they were on the protest they were on the road they're all in jail right yeah many of them the second and third rung you know are are in jail ladies you know the daughter of the daughter-in-law of an army Chief but she got out finally after almost a year yeah 8 months N9 months so the Army also knows how to handle it so while so but where the youth or where this impact is because of the demography you see in Pakistan I'm sure in other countries also it's a very young population I was seeing that from 2018 to 202 elections now there were 18 million new voters right and the population between 18 and 35 is 44% of the electorate that's a huge chunk so that's how Imran Khan's party even though the contesting as independent won about 90 seats because these people came out and voted for them they knew in each constituency who's the PTI guy and they voted for them and in spite of that you have the Old Guard winning which is n the arm is p Master because it just rigged it pre election during election post election and uh so electorate doesn't really matter as such is it has started making a difference it has okay all right so uh finally I have to get to back to Indian election so uh you know there are internet providers who have been warning many countries which are going into polls this year some have already completed we are in the process that China will try to use artificial intelligence to uh penetrate our electoral process of course our uh our EVMS are not connected to the internet but there are other methods to which we can they can influence we have uh four more phases uh maybe five if if we run this show after the second phase or third phase depending on that we still have many phases um do you think that it's a very very strong possibility that they have already tried to impact our elections or they could still try to impact elections you know you said EVMS luckily are stand alone but narratives you see building narratives uh using influencers social media or even print or electronic that is one uh major cause of worry because and fake news now you know using artificial intelligence fake news showing somebody who's not there saying something which you never said that is something which have to be guard against and I'm not a technical man so I don't know how do you guard against it but this is something which we need to be very careful about that how do you tackle false narratives fake narratives even the Prime Minister has has gone on record to talk about this fake narratives and fake visual so I think that is something which we need to worry about and it's not only China you know they are um the Deep State as it is being referred to you find so many uh things that are happening so Soros there could be so many others huh yeah the so India's upward trajectory is not exactly a comfortable situation for many countries including China uh which didn't has not factored in that India could be and India's rise whether it is in the G20 quad whatever is not a comfortable situation when we were talking about artificial intelligence just yesterday um there was a fake video out of Amit Sha of the Indian home minister you know where he's he's talking about certain things which he never did it's a it's AI generated it's fake uh so like I was saying that it's not maybe just Chinese interference it could be the Deep State interference how dangerous is it on the out come of the polls you know I think it certainly is a danger and we have to guard against it in all elections you know uh the Chinese for instance have played that role in Canada already in America uh in the US uh in supposedly in thawan and so therefore the technology exists in Canada there's a public inquiry commission going on uh you know looking at foreign interference uh looking at uh the the Chinese interference which is supposed to to have taken place twice in two of the elections 2019 and 21 so I think uh we have to guard against it develop those guard rails develop those cyber security methods and those ways to uh you know counteract this uh possibility you know the other thing I wanted to say and that perhaps is related to your last conversation about how Indian democracy is seen in general uh particularly in the media is that there is a tendency to to downplay the importance of a electoral democracy you know the success of India's elections are something that they've held regularly and reasonably transparently reasonably Fair uh or uh and and this is a kind of model for the world uh a lot of uh election commissions around the world are asking for our Election Commission to you know kind of show them uh the way this is so I think this in all these democracy indicators whether it's weam or Freedom House I used to be the Indian representative in a community of democracies a global organization and I would make the argument that you guys are overweighting certain factors and under waiting the most critical factor which is the regularity of Elections the competitive politics political parties and whether elections are regularly held so I think this is something that we need to be communicating better that you know the the fact of electoral democracy is also a huge achievement yeah you know this is exactly what AJ said is the which I did uh one podcast with Shashi Shar about this that uh these Western democracies who make it their uh you know uh their strong point that they encourage democracies around the world and successful democracies they are the ones who are constantly uh you know badgering India or through their editorial saying that it's an autocracy it's not a functioning democracy which I cannot for the life of me fathom that why would you do this I I want to know your view uh you interact so many that's the point I like to make is they talk about majoritarianism you know for example look what is the objective of a parliamentary democracy for political parties to try and get as many seats as possible now if a party is getting you know over 300 seats or more than that what is the party supposed to do I don't want 50 seats I'll give 50 seats to the opposition that is not how parliamentary democracy works and parliamentary democracies first passed the post you can get 100 but I've got 101 seats so I'm going to be elected so this is something which you find the all these editorials and these universities talk about you know what you mentioned autocracy democracy in danger and all is all a lot of nonsense mhm a you have the most transparent and the most widespread elections ever 970 million you electorate in the can you imagine this year humongous task of organizing a free and fair and transparent election and then based on that people have a free choice yeah but just coming back to one point of the danger see the false narrative is very dangerous because once you set a narrative once you put it out in the market to counter it is all defensive and it does not have the same kind of resonance as the initial Mischief is so that is something which is needs to be guarded against you know a trial balloon which is floated or something which is said you know with the false narrative so finally uh I'll uh ask you both one question and you can take it because you're practitioners of foreign policy uh security policy so has domestic polit politics has it played a larger role in foreign policy in the past decade than in the previous years you know I would uh argue no not then in the past because uh finally your foreign policy is uh an furthering an expression of uh National interest and uh the national interest you might argue is interpreted differently projected uh differently and translated differently in uh diplomacy but it is not that we have more of a domestic issue issues being translated overseas I think the foreign policy is certainly based on uh managing um India's rise which is a benign rise I think uh compared to China's for instance and uh maximizing the benefits one gets from the world from the neighborhood and Beyond uh for uh for easing that rises whether it's in terms of uh a better geopolitical climate or whether better investment conditions and so on so I I wouldn't say that that has dramatically changed they look same question yeah I I think the distinction between domestic and foreign which may have been there earlier in two different compartments are no longer there it's not silos anymore it's not silos anymore because and security also you would say all interconnected you see because for example Economic Development our priority is to develop the country economically and for that you need to have where you want trade you want ftas so all that becomes part of foreign policy similarly on security interest if you have a security problem in Bangladesh for example or in Myanmar it is projected you know through diplomatic so I think the distinction between domestic and foreign policy is now blurred and one feeds into the other okay one feeds into the other and um that's how it's being projected right thank you gentlemen for sparing the time and speaking with uh me and uh when we have a new government in place in uh June I would like you to come back to the show and explain to me as to what is the focus that this government the new government would want uh for the next 5 Years thank you so much thank you so much for having thank wonderful enjoy talking to you thank you thank you for watching or listening to this edition of the Ana podcast with Smitha prakash do click on the Subscribe and like buttons Namaste J hind click here to watch the previous episodes

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Id: UuE28lzCy_I

Length: 97min 54sec (5874 seconds)

Published: Mon May 13 2024