Elon Musk SpaceX Presentation Leaves Audience SPEECHLESS

when you think about the question of where are the aliens which I get asked a lot this is like the FY Paradox where are the aliens and I've not seen any evidence that there are aliens on earth a lot of people think there are aliens on Earth and I'm like great I'd like to meet one you know for a while there when I was getting my green card and everything it's an alien registration card I'm like okay but this this question of where are the aliens is I think a very profound one because I'm aware of no evidence of aliens whatsoever which means that I think we're probably alone and if you look at the history of Earth like how long has Earth been around if assuming that physics is correct the universe is about 13.8 billion years old Earth is about 4 and2 billion years old when you think about the how how old is civilization I think the the right measuring point for civilization in my view or or a a good measuring point would be the Advent of writing so the first writing is generally considered to be the ancient Sumerians where are they now they died out but about 5,500 years ago was archaic pre uniform in fact I suggest it's like an interesting Rabbit Hole to read about the history of writing so if you consider say like okay civilization I think if you don't have writing you kind of need writing for civilization there only been around for like a little over 5,000 years out of 4 and a half billion years that Earth has been around and the 13.8 billion years of the universe so we're all of human civilization is basically the blink of an eye it's like a just a fraction it's almost it's nothing and I think that that probably means that that that Consciousness is incredibly rare and perhaps fleeting it may not last for very long because otherwise we would I think we would have seen aliens some kind of sign of aliens I think the most likely explanation is that Consciousness is so rare that you and does that Consciousness actually extend to another planet does that Consciousness extend to another star system I mean ultimately if we were able to become a space bearing civilization a multi Planet species and ultimately a multi- stellis species and go out there and explore all these star systems I think we may find that there are many long dead oneplanet civilizations we and as you've heard me say before we don't want to be one of those lame One Planet civilizations I mean we want to be a multiplet civilization ultimately be a multi- stellar Civ civilization be out there Among the Stars like you know make science fiction not fiction forever kind of make star Star Trek real that's so that's why I think that there's a high urgency to making life multiplanetary because this is the first time in Earth's 4 and a half billion year history that it's been possible to extend life or Consciousness beyond Earth and we've got to do that while civilization is still strong so that's the overarching goal of the company is extend life sustainably to another planet Mars is the only option really and to do ideally before World War III or some kind of bad thing the key thing is that we need enough people and enough tonnage on Mars such that Mars can survive and continue Consciousness even if something would happened to earth now I still think obviously I'm not talking about AB abandoning Earth or anything like that we want Earth to be as good as possible for as long as possible but there are certain things that may be outside of our control so so we want to just get Mars to be a self-sustaining civilization as quickly as possible and I think this can be done in around 20 years and this you know giant Starship Factory that we're building is obviously key to that and the launch sites that we're building here and at the cape and elsewhere in the future will be key to that so let's just go through that this is the final go no go Poll for flight three of Starship may buy two go stage one go stage two go flight directors go for launch we have [Music] Li vehicle pitching down range next [Music] cute vehicle Super [Music] Sonic St separation [Music] [Music] [Music] he [Music] [Music] house and congratulations guys you did that that's in that's insane I mean it looks like CGI um hard to believe that that is unfiltered video that's just the actual what the camera saw no filters no nothing that's actually what the camera saw which is insane you know uh you're doing incredible work that I think almost no one thought would actually happen it's wild that this this strange spot this we're basically on a sandpit by the Rio Grand near the beach and that is actually the gateway to Mars has to be like if this was a movie you'd be like no way come on to implausible but it's real and it's due to you guys congratulations this a side by side of the three flights you can see our thrust to weight improved significantly so we we've made tremendous progress from flight one to flight two to flight three and we got flight four coming up in about a month or so and with flight four we should if we get you know if fate Smiles upon us uh we will get through the high heating regime and smash into the ocean at a controlled spot and then hopefully be able to also do this with the booster land on a essentially a virtual Tower if the landing on the virtual Tower with the booster works then we will actually try with flight five to come back and land on the tower that's very much a success oriented schedule but but it is in the realm of possibility but I would say like the odds of us actually being able to catch the the booster with the mechazilla arms this year I think I I don't want to attt to fate no would but I think the odds of actually catching the booster W with the tower probably like 80 90% this year which is insane like actually when we first talked about it it sounded so batshit crazy we're going to have a giant it's like Lally bigger than mechazilla from this movie that you would catch like the the biggest flying object ever made with mechanical arms out of the air but we're going to do it yeah may not work you know necessarily the first time but you know it will work so really Starship is is really the key to making life multiplanetary and preserving the light of Light Of Consciousness that's what it's all about and it it may end up being the most important thing that that we ever do I think the like the light of Consciousness is like this this tiny candle in a vast darkness and that candle has only been lit for a very short time and it could easily go out so we obviously want to preserve the tiny Light Of Consciousness on Earth but extend it to Mars and then ultimately to the rest of the solar system and then start going to other star systems and I mean I won't be allowed to see that butless I'm like frozen or something I know but but I you know I think at some point we will discover many civilizations that maybe lasted a million years or two million years or 10 million years but a civilization that lasted a million years which would be you know vastly longer than our civilization has lasted only the the third decimal point so like 13.8 billion something years if your if your civilization lasts a million years it's only goes that third digit past the decimal point goes up one and that's a million years I mean I'd say like we should think of like how do we make civilization last a million years you know we often get caught up in like the day-to-day things but we want them to have at least a million year civilization if not a 100 million year civilization or a billion year civilization absolutely crucial to that goal is becoming a multiplet species people often ask why Mars well there's not a lot of options frankly Venus is a a super heated High Press Acid Bath not you don't don't want to go to Venus and then the Moon is close but it it doesn't have an atmosphere the gravity is only one sixth out of Earth and it's a lot of Key Resources also the the insulating value of the Moon Mars is much less so if there's something that takes out earth like let's say there's a World War III global thermonuclear Warfare they'll probably throw a few nukes at the Moon whereas it's way harder to to shoot Mars with nuclear and we Mars would see it coming and probably have some time to stop the inbound missiles so the the value of Mars the the difficult or the distance and time required to get to Mars actually has an insulating benefit to the for the continuation of Consciousness even if there's something terrible happens on Earth and and then once we go beyond Mars there's there's some asteroids like sarus some of the moons of Jupiter the Starship would ultimately be capable of of reaching anywhere in the solar system then we'll need something uh a new level of technology to go to other star systems but if we can't at least get to Mars then other star systems are hopeless I mean it's a fixer upper of a planet okay needs some work but it is is it's really the only option for becoming multiplanetary and long term we can warm up Mars and we can there would be we can densify the atmosphere and there' be a liquid ocean on about 40% of the surface so we could make it an earthlike Planet long term let's see we've learned a tremendous amount from when we started the company and at first could we're unable to get even a small rocket to orbid to now where we've done 327 successful launches uh almost 300 Landings in fact you know give it a few weeks and we'll have done three Landings 261 re many times I was told that that reusability was was impossible and even if you did it there would be no point cuz nobody would want to fly rockets that much but now we routinely fly and and land the booster and we recover the fairing so we've learned a tremendous amount from the Falcon program that is then feeding into the starship program and Falcon and starlink are what obviously keep the company going just like to give a hand to the the Falcon team for the incredible work that they're doing and then Dragon wow 45 launches of dragon it's amazing and we've flown 50 crew members to orbit 46 to the space station and everyone has come home safely which is the most important thing you know incredible work by the dragon team so let's give him a hand that was couldn't ask for a better outcome and starlink actually if you look at the sort of the the plot of the all the satellites going around Earth does look kind of scary actually but there's 6,000 satellites in operation over 6,000 and 10,000 lasers almost 3 million customers so stall link is doing a lot of good for people for people on Earth who don't either don't have internet access or it's very expensive and so it's doing a lot of good you know on Earth because when I say we want to be a multiplet species I'm you know we obviously want Earth to be as good as possible and Mars to be to be great so uh stall link is is doing a tremendous amount of of that and we're learning a lot by having this big Fleet stall link will also be uh very important for high bandwidth communication uh to and on Mars from from a tiny rocket to Falcon 9 which is a much bigger rocket many iterations of Falcon 9 and then Falcon heavy and then Starship and Starship will get bigger obviously you know this this year if if if things go according to plan uh SpaceX will do probably 90% of all Earth Master orbit and then China will do about 6% and the rest of the world will do about 4% which is pretty pretty wild and then once Starship is flying we'll be doing over 99% of all Earth Mass to award which you kind of have to do in order to build a city on Mars and and I should say we'll also build a Bonar base as well you might as well along the way you can see that actually Falcon one was really yeah half a ton to orbit slight error on the slide there Falcon was about half a ton to orbit Falcon 9 depending on in Expendable mode would do probably 25 tons to Orit and yeah Falcon heavy probably 70 anyway these are just obviously rapidly increasing numbers and Starship in its final configuration or its final form will probably do well over 200 tons to orbit with full reusability and be able to fly you know multiple times a day so I I'm pretty confident we will achieve that this year like I said probably 80 90% uh this year and and then there's recovering and reusing the ship the ship will take uh longer so the ship I think we want to have at least two consecutive successes of a a given design that land at a specific point in the ocean or smash into a specific point in the ocean before we try to bring it back to the launch site because we do not want to rain debris over Mexico or the US my guess is probably next year is when we will be able to reuse Starship but I think it's it's I think it's highly likely that this year we will bring Starship to or the shift side of it to a controlled point in the ocean and have it basically land on a virtual virtual Tower in somewhere in the in the Pacific or the Indian Ocean and we've already proven that we can do the Final Phase of Landing coming from sort of a belly first position to rotating the ship and Landing vertically we proved that right here what we just really we just need to be confident that we can get through the high heating portion of the app of re-entry reliably and then we will bring the ship back and it will land on the tower as well and we're going to build more mechazilla so there's going to be two launch Towers here and I think and then two launch Towers at the cape as well so we'll have four launch towers for four Starship probably you know by sometime next year aiming to have the first Cape launch Tower and launch system operational around the middle of next year and that'll be important for launch uh as that our sort of fly Overland so I think what what we should probably expect is that we we do the kind of the development launches here test anything new here build the rockets and then probably most of the operational launches would be from the cape so this year we're planning to build another roughly six boosters and shifts and and that production rate will increase a lot next year that's why we're building the the giant Factory ultimately we'll need to build a lot more ships than boosters especially for Mars because it's the you'll actually want to use the ship take apart the ship and use it for raw materials on Mars because the ship materials will be so valuable most of the ships you wouldn't want to bring back you'd want to just use for raw materials eventually we will want to bring ships back and I think we want to give people the option of coming back because they're more likely to want to go if there's but I think most of the people that go to Mars will probably never come back to earth and we'll need to ramp production to pretty high numbers like I think ultimately probably a ship every like multiple ships per day basically and then next year we're aiming to demonstrate ship to- ship propell and transfer it's hard to make this not look a little bit nauy because it's two ships connecting and a fluid transfer just what it is but it is this is actually a very important this is a very important step on going to Mars because you need to put to get the ship to orbit and then do orbital refilling kind of like aerial refueling and that's really you'll need about about five or six refilling missions for every one mission that goes to Mars so roughly 5 to one and and this will also be very important for the Artemis program for the N to to get back to the moon so we want to have a ship that is well it's going to be a specialized ship for the moon like this so the moon obviously there's no mechazilla so we need Landing legs and you don't need a heat shield and you don't need flaps cuz there's no atmosphere so the moon ship would be specialized and now ultimately I think we want to build a Moonbase Alpha and have a permanently occupied Bas on the moon like that would be super exciting and so you'd have a bunch of ships that are specialized for going to and from the moon but they never come back to they never land back on Earth they just would would dock with with propellent tankers to get orbital refilling so in terms of performance we've made dramatic progress on on every level for Starship it's remarkable that you see the rapor engines and how how how it has evolved from you know optimistically 185 tons and I think ultimately we'll probably the booster engines will will aim to get the booster engines over 330 tons of thrust which would mean 10,000 tons of total thrust at left off and then the rafter 3 also will not need a heat shield so rafter 3 looks looks very simple and it is actually simplified in a lot of ways but a lot of the complexity is hidden because we have integral cooling channels in in many parts of the engine that don't exist in rapor to so in order to not have a heat shield it has to be very resilient but that is actually what Raptor 3 would look like looks like ra 3 looks like it's missing a bunch of parts but actually those parts have either been deleted or they've been integrated into the system and like I said with integral cooling channels and where you need secondary Plumbing the secondary Plumbing has also been integrated into the pump and into the chamber jacket and yeah so it's much simpler well yeah it's actually extremely difficult to build rafter 3 but but it will be easy to integrate and we have higher performance and lower total mass and be more reliable well that can going for a while I find it interesting to look at the if you look at the the flame tail on Starship and how long it is it's a very long flame tail which is due to the fact that the chamber pressure well it's just outputting a lot more yeah a lot more gas that are higher velocity but I think the flame tail is like maybe 1,000 ft long it's like more than twice the length of the rocket and that will actually get as we increase the thrust that will get longer yeah and inevitably the rocket grows in height Starship 2 raming for like currently flight three would be around 40 or 50 tons to or it so the current design Starship 2 will be over 100 tons and then Starship 3 would be over 200 tons um and yeah it's going from around 7,000 tons thrust to over 8,000 but I think we'll end up ultimately with more than three more than 10,000 tons of thrust probably 7 or 8,000 tons of liftoff mass and at least 10 m taller we'll see tends to grow yeah exactly it probably grows a bit more than that even really so if if you look at Falcon 9 it's is we're not going to do the length to diameter of Falcon 9 that would be crazy but Falcon 9 is a very long rocket and so I suspect it'll probably get a bit longer than this but at 200 tons per flight fully reusable that is pretty incredible and yeah this will be on the order of 500 ft tall and then we're there there's thousands of design improvements here I mean I think maybe the most one of the most profound things is Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1 so that's the difference between if you've got a fully reusable rocket or an Expendable rocket the fully reusable rocket with lowcost propellant and autogenous pressurization actually costs less than a tiny expandable rocket and it'll do like said Falcon one is about half a ton to over it the Starship 3 will be 400 times more payload for less than the cost of a falcon one ultimately I think we we might be able to get the cost per flight to Earth orbit down around $2 million or $3 million these are sort of Unthinkable numbers from the you know no nobody ever thought this was possible but we're not breaking any physics to achieve this so this is within the B without breaking physics we can do this so the Mars missions are 2 years apart or 26 months and uh if you look closely at the starlink router you see the home and transfer from Earth overit to Mars overit and that's basically to say to people the starlink system that you're buying is helping get Humanity to Mars I think it's pretty cool so roughly every 2 years thousands of ships would depart from Earth to Mars it would look like Battle Star Galactica but in a good way you know hopefully without being chased by the syons but it would be an incredible thing to see these thousands of ships departing every 26 months for Mars what this diagram is basically saying is that for getting to Mars we would essentially create a kind of a propellent Depot ship the propellent depot would look more like a hot dog than like a spear it's really just a long ship with a a lot of insulation and we' fill that ship up and then shortly before or as as they're going to Mars the ships would take off with a couple hundred tons of payload from Earth reach Orit with very almost no propellent and then get refilled by the tanker and then go to Mars and land go all the way to Mars with over 200 tons of useful payload then on Mars in the beginning we would I think we would simply reuse the ship materials so most of the ships wouldn't come back but then time you'd want to bring the ships back so you could reuse them and and for that we would need to create methane CH4 and oxygen O2 on Mars which you can do with H2O and CO2 so the atmosphere is CO2 and there's plenty of water ice H2O and so it's tailor made for well actually the reason we have methane oxygen system is because you can make methane and oxygen on Mars fairly easily like not just not total work in the park but the ingredients are readily available to create methane and oxygen on Mars so You' build a propellent Depot and and bring the ships back and build out as quickly as possible a self- sustaining civilization on Mars and we want to get we want to get the cost of going to Mars such that almost anyone could afford it like if somebody would just work har on Earth save up and that they' be able to go to Mars so it's like anyone ideally almost anyone could go to Mars and I think you'll see a lot of governments also sponsor people and ultimately we want to get so there's kind of an an optimal Landing Zone on Mars where you have resources so you got access to water or frozen water that you're not too close to the PO so you can use solar power it would it would be nice to use nuclear I don't know if you'll get get the approval but nuclear would be very handy on Mars because you can use the Heat and you can generate electricity and then uh you kind of want to be about 2 kilometers below sea level so if Mars did have an ocean you'd actually be quite deep in the ocean at least at first and yeah see that's Mars kind of kind of want to land about halfway between the the pole and the equator in in a kind of a deep area of Mars if if you the deeper it is the more you can use the atmosphere to break and the atmospheric density is higher these are all the things that would have to be developed sometimes people ask me are we developing these things I'm like not yet because this is the cart and we need the horse first so the rocket is the horse and then this is the cart But ultimately we'll need all these things lots of power generation mining in general ice mining propellent production long duration life support constru a lot of construction and and then Global Communication so I think this would would open up a lot of opportunities for entrepreneurs that want to create any create things on Mars whether that is a propellent well well I think we'll have to do the propellent depot but whether it's like iron or refining or a pizza joint or a bar you know there'll be an opportunity to do all the things that we like on Earth on Mars like a Mars bar would be yeah great so I think I think probably the a rough order of magnitude guess for what you need how many people do you need for a self-sustaining city is about a million and several million tons of cargo yeah which we can do and we can do this in 20 years but like I said in order for it to be self- sustaining you actually need the entire base of Industry you can't be missing any element so that's really what's going to take a while is do you have everything you need to survive on Mars at that point the future of Consciousness is assured if you do 10 launches a day at 200 tons per launch uh million and a half tons to Leo per opportunity you you net that out to a quar million tons uh Tom Mars per opportunity so that means you can get to a million tons in about 8 years since the opportunities of two years apart so I think this pretty doable and I'm like we're actually going to do this we I you know we are actually going to do it which is insane to think millions of tons tomorrows wild we to build a lot of vehicles several thousand vehicles per year is what we'll need which really quite quite doable actually it sounds like a lot but it's very doable yeah if you compare it to sort of car production is a small number of course this is much bigger than a car but even if you look at the total tonnage the it's still very it's very doable to build several thousand Vehicles a year that's what we need to do and we're going to do it and then long term we'll probably have some offshore launch sites you can just imagine all these Starships waiting in orbit for the planets to align and then this gigantic Starfleet taking over from Mars all right so we're actually going to do this and you think about where this started out this was literally just a like a a sandb bar where we're standing right now and now look at what we've done here and we've gotten three flights off of Starship and got a fourth one coming up and we're building a gigantic Factory that will be able to Output a massive number of ships so it's surreal but it's real so we're actually going to do this we're going to take Humanity to Mars and I'm confident you can do it

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Id: OffMED-KXIs

Length: 27min 33sec (1653 seconds)

Published: Sat Apr 06 2024