Elon Musk Just Asked Who Else Should Be Tesla’s CEO | Today's Tesla Stock News

let's go through all of today's Tesla stock news and I'll start with this interesting remark from Elon Musk himself it was in response to this post that said I can't see too well can you help me find the competition all these other companies are not selling nowhere near as many EVS in the US as Tesla does and I think Elon is speaking about some Tesla stock investors here sometimes they question if I should even run Tesla my response is simply which CEO on that list that you just saw would you prefer I say any one of these guys is uh fine but definitely none of these guys here it appears that Elon certainly wants to say as the CEO of Tesla and I really like that if he stepped down I would not be happy with that I think Tesla orall would still be okay but it wouldn't do as well and certainly I would not expect Tesla to build the Optimus bot in the future at least not widely successfully but with Elon I think it's an actual possibility Arin has just sold a little bit more Tesla stock nowhere near as much as the last two times just now and their location now is at 10.8% in their main fund I think the unspoken rule is anytime Tesla stock goes over 11% in this fund the sales are then made so with under 11% in the fund now I would expect the sales to slow down or uh not happen until we go over 11% again yesterday I reported on the first before supercharger being installed in the US and now here's the second one so things are moving forward which is good but it has been a long time since I mentioned by how much longer the cable is 50% longer and one reason why V4 superchargers are very important is because Tesla is opening up its charging Network to everyone and this for example vehicle is taking two spots because the cable is not long enough so it is actually really good to to see V4 finally rolling out also with V4 some Vehicles should be able to charge the battery a little bit faster which could be significant for the Cyber trck what's also good about V4 superchargers is that they share the same anchor points as V3 for relatively easy upgrade path look at number four here from Gary sfsd reaches level four and Teslas can drive themselves our FSD take rate of 12% could prove to too low and the FSD Improvement will help sell more tesas I haven't really heard much from Gary in terms of him possibly being too conservative about FSD I have heard things like uh Gary being right about FSD and him pointing that out that FSD is not solved then he was righty to not be bullish about it before but now we are hearing a slightly different tune he also continues here frankly given these catalysts we don't understand why Tesla felt compelled to cut model 3 and y configurator prices last night the good news is that price CS Were Us only and replace inventory discounts that may have been just as high I think it is much better to have lower configurator prices and no inventory discounts than to have bigger inventory discounts because to see inventory discounts you have to already have sort of made up your mind okay I want the Tesla but before you buy a Tesla you look at the configurator price and you look at that and you go oh maybe that's a bit uh pricey and then if you decide to actually buy it maybe you will check out the inventory and then you will go oh actually it's not as much as I thought for example I have one of my friends uh that was looking at Tesla recently and she just looked at the configurator price and she didn't even know that there were inventory discounts Gary also updated his estimates this is his old estimate from July 14th and before he expected in 20 30 the only thing I really care about is 2030 and really 2033 which is what I base my Tesla validation model I base everything basically on 2033 and I have one more year basically five years from now that I also uh base my validation on for those of you who want to see what I'm thinking about Tesla stock more short term but really I look as far into the future as I can uh live relatively strong confidence so I think I can be very confident about 2033 numbers uh and Gary has 10.2 million deliveries for 2030 remember this is from July and $24 for earnings per share and here is his most recent updated uh model and you can see that deliveries are now a little bit lower uh for next year they are now 2.55 million but uh what remains unchanged is the delivery number for 2030 it is still at 10.22 million however he's projecting that Tesla will now only made $22 instead of $24 per share in 2030 there are a few items where I am actually less bullish than Gary looking at this chart and there are quite a few more items where I'm quite a bit more bullish than Gary you may see my full valuation model on patreon by clicking on the link below James just posted his Q3 income statement forecast he's acting 15.8% for the auto margin and uh his EPS is 65 cents here his more detailed forecast the consensus EPS is now at 71 cents so James is below the consensus with my own companies I look at my balances and statements weekly and in many cases even daily I never want to be surprised ever with my businesses I'm just focused on the longterm term really but I still look at the statements and I do the same with Tesla as well someone attacked Gary by saying Tesla stock is down because Gary says price cuts are bad well actually Tesla stock yesterday went up just a tiny little bit but that's because the markets are up if the markets were not up my guess is Tesla stock would have dropped maybe 3 to 4% usually it moves just a little bit more than uh this index the refresh model was just unveiled in France and many people seem to be quite excited by it well I would be excited too if they had an unveiling here Tesla did not cut prices in Canada they just did it in the US but Gary also agrees with me that price Cuts will apply to Canada as well jef made some points here but I do have a different take on some of those he says price CS are getting smaller and less frequent also they are more Regional and not as Global as before but I would like to push against uh the non Global part a little bit we don't exactly know that Tesla is not planning to cut prices further in Europe or China uh because if you look uh back to January we had price cuts on January 13th in the US but in China the price Cuts happened a week earlier so likely Jeff is going to be right about this but I would not have any strong conclusions until waiting for another week or two number two the new model y rear whe Drive trim was not cut and should be a bulk of New Order volumes taking volume away from the other two but I think most likely Tesla decided to cut prices before the rear whe Drive model y was even released number three here model 3 was a smaller $1,250 cut in the US only and probably to clear out the inventory for the refresh model 3 but then why did they cut the model y as well if they did not cut the model y I would agree with that point because they cut the m y i don't agree with that point and G agrees with me on this we don't know if Tesla us mod Y Cuts will spread to other markets we also don't know if Tesla will add inventory discounts to clear excess volumes toward quarter end yeah personally if I was to buy a Tesla vehicle unless I was in a rush to buy I would buy it at the end of the quarter Bank of America had a few words about Tesla's price Cuts in addition to the demand signals price changes on the model 3 and Y are poised to further away on Tesla's gross margins however while the impact was quite meaningful in q1 and Q2 the impact of price changes for Q3 should be relatively modest we got sales numbers from the UK and my first impression looking at this is well this quarter was so much more better than our previous quarter but this last quarter was actually the best quarter so far this year and if you look at this chart it becomes apparent that Tesla is doing pretty well this year in the UK because so far this year we are clearly ahead of the previous year and usually the last quarter in the year is where the UK does the best however this year could be a little bit different because the refresh model fre will not be delivered in the UK until till next year that is because in the UK they drive on the other side of the road Troy just updated his expectations for Giga Mexico he says based on the latest news the permits for Giga meico will be issued soon that means the permitting stage will take five months longer than other factories therefore Giga Mexico is expected to take one month longer than Giga Berlin and should be ready in August 2025 he expects groundwork to begin on October 26th it appears to me that nesla app.com thinks that the delivery event date for the Sabri will be announced on October 18th on the earnings call Joe tagm says that here we can probably see sections of cyber trucks also for scrap in addition to the Moto y bodies of course that is not really unexpected uh in early production you always have issues with these castings that's nothing bad really but if we do see a lot a lot a lot of it that would not be a great sign I don't think there's anything to worry about right now Drive Tesla wres that it looks like Tesla has got the same door open mechanism in these saat compared to earlier builds here's some footage from cyber rodeo and you can see that Elon pushes a button first and only then he opens the door I slowed down the video and this is actually an important part for me personally um because my friend owns a model X and it's a pain so see here he definitely pressed the button and only then the door opens but look at this guy here here it is at normal speed I don't know if he press anything it almost seemed like he he just sort of opened it and now I slowed it down even more so he put his hands nothing thing is happening okay I know he pressed the button first I think and only then the door opened my friend has a model X and uh every time before getting into that car I press the door button and only then it opens and there's always a delay maybe nine out of 10 times I'm slightly annoyed getting into that car because I press on the door and the door either doesn't open or there's a delay and I think it's not opening but it's actually opening to see this handle nothing comes out of there basically you just how to push it in a little bit and it's not you don't have that feedback where you know okay yeah I definitely pressed it there's no feedback really I mean the door handle it goes in a little bit but you just never know did I actually press it this time or is this just a delay and if that was just the case for the rear do I would be okay with that because the I mean it does take a little bit of time for them to go up so it's actually a bit slow to get in the vehicle uh but it's also the same thing for uh this passenger door as well which is really the annoying part now if you are the driver this is not important at all because when you approach the vehicle the door just opens for you which I really like about the model X actually but as a passenger I'm always a bit annoyed but luckily with the sabot TR it seems that it is very clear once he pressed the button that he actually pressed the button that's the most annoying part so they seem to have solved the most annoying part of the problem here there is still a delay after pressing the button the door does not open immediately which is slightly annoying but that's not really the bad part so I think we're good here James com commented on Tesla's recent price Cuts he says if Elon is right and Hardware is just being pushed at any respectable positive gross margin because Tesla expects to convert a large number of these cars into buyers of FSD in the future then the strategy makes sense the issue with this strategy is it adds a lot of risk because FSD isn't a given now I think in the long term it is a given but the question is when will it be solved Warren asks James what is your estimate of the probability that FSD is solved within 5 years James says I think there's a very high probability to will be great level two meaning you still have to pay attention but the car basically does all of the driving in 5 years it may be good enough that everyone will want to use as a level two system all the time this would be very valuable and I think almost no one really is pricing that in probability of level five approved with Regulators for autonomous driving is very low he says I mean I mean I wouldn't bet on it happening but I also happen to be conservative so maybe that's just me says James this argument is also pretty common among Tesla Bears no issue with regulation is mind numbing yes regulation is going to be an issue in wi adoption for full sale driving there are thousands of jurisdictions yet Tesla still can sell in 50 states after years of litigation James responds by saying Tesla one need all jurisdictions to approve of SD before the market reacts positively they just needed to work as intended the rest will fall into place the consumer will not wait for the bureaucrats and neither will Tesla the value will be created quickly a good way to think about it is imagine that tomorrow Tesla builds this huge backlog suddenly immediately let's say 6 months of backlog just comes back immediately do you think the stock would react to that immediately or do you think the stock uh would react only once Tesla reports bigger deliveries than before what you would see in the news is Tesla has so much demand too much demand speculations about Tesla increasing prices increased margins increased earnings Wall Street increasing price uh Target estimates so I think the stock would actually go up immediately James says that FSD and robot taxi will be harder to solve than building a profitable EV company from scratch which Tesla has already done Optimist the way has been positioned will be harder to solve than solving fsd4 cars these are two moonshots it's okay to believe these will happen but in my opinion says James these are very highrisk high reward projects I think there's also an argument to be made and a debate to be had about well if you want to solve full cell driving it needs to be basically perfect it needs to be safer than human driving but for Optimus robot it can fall it can make mistakes and no one will die so to have some limited use for the bot in theory maybe it would be a little bit easier but in practice it seems to me that Tesla wants this bot to be a bot that can be used for almost anything and not for some just limited use so assuming that is true then I agree with James James expands on his point by saying I think Optimus will be harder because Tesla needs to figure out both the hardware and the software get the hardware right and functional is a Herculean task all by itself at least they sold the hardware in the cars very true we have millions of Tesla cars on the roads already how many Bots do we have out there this is just a rumor so this may not happen but it appears that perhaps Tesla may give FSD beta to some of its Chinese customers this quarter maybe maybe not just a rumor but if true uh this would be good news it should by at least a little bit increase the take rate of FSD beta in China if people can actually start using it there's an update on the $7,500 us uh EV tax credit uh there's a new update starting from January 1st which will basically allow you to use the $7,500 EV tax credit as a down payment instead of having to wait until the next year to claim that tax credit consumers will need to attest they meet income limits to qualify for the tax credit or they will need to repay the government when filing their taxes so I guess you could maybe get a bit of a loan from the government here if you don't meet their requirements oh SpaceX received an investment from Italy's largest bank when Elon visited Italy this summer he seemed pretty happy also the prime minister of Italy seemed to be really happy to see him I wonder if if that's at all connected not that it matters but I'm just curious getting back to the $7,500 tax credit there seems to perhaps be a bit of a problem maybe because it mentions the word dealership now as we know Tesla doesn't exactly have dealerships Tesla has delivery centers and service centers so will Tesla really be able to take advantage of that $7500 credit go going forward currently the consensus appears to be yes Tesla will be able to take advantage of it Gary certainly seems to think that it will be applied to all Tesla vehicles and that Tesla will benefit from this new change I swear when I saw this I thought this was fake that this was photoshopped Eat the Rich but no this is very very real that seems a bit excessive maybe I mean imagine if one political party said eat beat the other political party here's another big mistake I see Tesla investors make and this one I learned the hard B that video is exclusively available on patreon if you are a patreon supporter of mine make sure to watch that one by joining my patreon you will get access to how much I think it is fair to pay per Tesla share each year between 2023 and 2033 if you sign up for the investor tier support you will also get my valuation model of Tesla stock with a 45-minute video walk through and YouTube says you should watch this video next but if you haven't finished watching that discussion about the feature with ELO musk watch this one first my name is malus like And subscribe if you haven't yet and I'll will see you in the next video thank you so much for watching

Channel: Matt Pocius on Tesla Stock & Money

Views: 18,334

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Id: DZRZhwhMeQQ

Length: 19min 40sec (1180 seconds)

Published: Sat Oct 07 2023