ECONOMIST WARNS: A Great Depression Is Coming In America | Peter Schiff x Jaspreet Singh

more and more people are going to have to give up on a lot of their discretionary spending because that money is going to go for food our entire banking system is basically insolvent the government takes your purchasing power instead of your money so instead of having less money my money just buys less so at the end of the day I'm in the same place I buy fewer things because of government's need to finance its increased spending so that's what we have we have a government problem and so to solve this government problem I.E inflation we need to you've been very vocal about your concerns about the United States entering a recession or maybe even a depression but all the data says that currently our economy is almost one of the strongest we've ever seen unemployment is near the lowest levels we've ever seen so do you think this data is lying or is the United States still on the verge of potentially entering a recession or something worse well you know there's an old saying uh F lie and liar figure um I think that the data some of it is is is is likely fudged but I think a lot of it has to do with flaws in the way the data is compiled and the government is notorious for going backwards and making very substantial revisions if you recall um the Great Recession that's what we call the recession that followed the 2008 financial crisis that one started in December of 07 and extended all the way into 09 but they didn't call that recession officially until December of '08 and what they did is they went back and revised an entire Year's worth of economic data and they said you know all the data that we gave you about how great the economy was for the past year it turns out that none of it was accurate in fact we've been in a recession for the entire year nobody knew and and so I think it's certainly possible that a lot of the data that people are pointing to now as proof of the strength of the economy is going to be revised and maybe it will show that the economy wasn't strong at all but I think there's a lot of other data that show that the economy is weak we just don't recognize it so one uh would be the record uh budget deficits and trade deficits that we have a strong economy would be generating more revenue for the US government and more exports and so if you look at those accounts the twin deficits are exploding it's a weak economy that generates budget and trade deficits also if you look at the savings rate at a record low basically household debt at a record high High credit card debt at a record high uh these are signs of economy in distress if Americans were doing better they would not be relying on debt in fact they would be paying down their debt and increasing their savings that's what you do when times are good uh you you save more you pay off those credit card bills that you know you incurred when times were bad well we're incurring record amounts of credit card debt and a lot of that is money people people are borrowing to buy food people are putting their groceries on their credit cards because they don't have the money also if you look at the jobs numbers because that's what the government keeps pointing to all these jobs that we create but on balance we're creating only part-time jobs we're losing full-time jobs I think that's a sign of a weak economy where we're replacing part-time jobs or full-time jobs with part-time jobs the jobs that we're creating are lower pay than the ones that we're destroying but the worst part is that most of the jobs that are being created these part-time jobs are going to people who already have one or two jobs Moonlighting is at a record high people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to pay the bills and even then they can't pay the bills without going into debt but if we had a strong economy people could get by on one job they wouldn't need a second or a third job I I think the uh low unemployment numbers don't really tell the story uh to the true extent too that people have detached themselves from the labor market uh and are no longer included in those statistics we still have an inflation problem I think that the CPI broadly understates the severity of that problem by Design so I think we have stronger inflation than we acknowledge uh which means we automatically have weaker GDP growth because the GDP is adjusted for inflation and so if you're underestimating inflation at the same time you overestimate economic growth and I think that's why President Biden is as unpopular as he is he's the most unpopular sitting president in the history of these popularity polls and if the economy was so good why wouldn't Biden be getting the credit I mean the media certainly tries to do it I mean the media is heavily biased in favor of Biden and the Democrats and they're talking about how good the economy is and they're they're crediting biomics and you know the president's leadership yet he's is very unpopular and if you look at the actual questions where Biden scores the lowest is on the economy so that that's where he's got his worst marks and so I don't think the voters would be uh so negative on Biden's handling of the economy if the economy were good so I think that that's a good reflection of how bad things are because even Democrats a lot of Democrats give him low marks on the economy uh a and so people are struggling it's really stagflation the cost of living has gone up dramatically since Biden has been in office I mean it would have gone up if Trump was still in office too but uh the the the electorate is just focus in on who's in charge now and either giving them the blame if stuff is bad or giving them credit if it's good and the fact that he's the most unpopular president ever and uh Camala Harris is the most unpopular vice president I mean what did she do to get so unpopular you know but she is I think she's just tainted by uh the weakness of the economy and so the voters are going to blame whoever's in charge whoever's in the white house uh for their economic plight uh so things are bad and they're about to get a lot worse so I think there's a there's a lot I want to unpack on this because we have household debt like you mentioned at a record high saving rates are falling you're saying the economy is not as strong as what people see the jobs data is not what the numbers might actually show then you have the government deficit and all that so let's start with household debt because this is something that's been very interesting to me and something I've talked about a lot recently where currently we live in an economic system that runs on spending so if I make $50,000 a year I in theory can only spend 50,000 but now thanks to credit cards lines of credit maybe I can spend $100,000 which is good in the short term because that means I can go and buy more things today but the problem is like you're mentioning that could hit a potential breaking point and now what we're seeing is Americans are getting tapped out on their debt levels people are maxing out credit cards delinquency rates are starting to rise what does that mean then for the economy and spending in the future and businesses that are relying on this continuous Rising spending yeah well first of all spending should not be what drives an economy that's the inherent problem we have a bubble what should drive an economy is savings and production so when you save money the savings can be invested in productive assets plant and equipment and things like that to produce goods and then once you produce Goods well then you get to consume them you get to spend but America puts the the cart before the horse we want to spend first and and and and not even produce right we want to just go buy stuff that we didn't even make and so the only reason that we could do that is because the rest of the world is making the stuff that we're buying and lending us the money to to do it but that is an unsustainable economic model and you know right now Americans are already leveraged up to the hilt and interest rates are still too low and if interest rates went to where they needed to be pretty much everybody would be broke including the US government uh so I think the FED is ultimately going to keep rates artificially low and I think they're still too low I mean the FED claims that the rates are uh restrictive they're not syy inflation is accelerating the rates are still too low but if they raise them to an appropriate level assuming they even know where that level is uh I think you know the the debt uh uh ridden economy would implode uh with the weight of that debt service so the FED is kind of trapped between a rock and a hard place that that it created because the reason everybody has so much debt is because the FED kept interest rates uh so low for for so long and so this is the the the obvious consequence I've been warning about it for a long time and now we you know we're having to deal with the consequences so now when you talk about interest rates being so low it's interesting that you say that because obviously I would say most of America believes the opposite that interest rates are way too high I can't buy a home I can't buy a car I can't afford anything well that's that's that's too bad but um you know people have a short memory and they're just comparing the rates we have now to the rates that we had for you know 10 12 years uh you know starting from the 2008 financial crisis until about 20122 so for most of those 14 years rates were you know zero or very close to zero and and so Americans were able to borrow to buy homes at three and 4% they were able to get you know ultra low auto loans um credit was was cheap and plentiful and that's the problem that's why we have so much inflation uh but now you know rates are getting back to normal you know they're not even high but given how much debt we have and how big the inflation problem is rates need to be more than just high they need to be very high but we're not even at high we're kind of at a normal rate a 5% rate for an economy that has a normal rate of inflation uh but we don't we have very high inflation even though it's pulled back a little bit from the Peaks uh that's just a temporary decline the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so uh these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year uh when the CPI is moving back towards 10% not down towards 2% wow so you think inflation is going going to continue going upwards closer to the 10% number back where we were in 2021 2022 rather than go to the 2% of the Federal Reserve Bank is asking for yeah I mean there's like no chance that that's going to happen and you know ultimately the rates going higher but what's even worse is that the official rate probably only captures about half the actual price increases so when you're at 9% like we were at we were probably closer to 18% that was the reality wow the government just creates a fantasy and I know you talked about inflation before inflation was popular uh and nowadays if you look at the reported inflation numbers which I think is very interesting over the last few years the gross reinflation I think is around 20 2% the reported numbers meaning that if I about $100 uh part of groceries back in 2020 it should cost me about $122 today versus for the average person I think it's costing significantly more than that today how is the average person then are they going to be able to consume things in the future when things continue to rise in price at a time where people are already starting to max out their credit cards they're digging into the 401 K and they're saving less money how does somebody then afford groceries in 2025 and 20126 if it keeps getting worse we're going to jump back into the show in just a minute but 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Market that's briefs. market and with that let's go back to the show yeah well they're not I mean more and more people are going to have to give up on a lot of their discretionary spending because that money is going to go for food it's going to go for electricity Insurance um energy you know maintenance I mean the cost of everything is going to go up and that increase is going to far out pays higher wages in fact a lot of Americans could actually have lower wages because they'll lose their job and they'll have to replace it with a lower paying job uh so people are going to be cutting back on a lot of things now some people will just uh you know spend more for their food and cut back other places but some people will have to just cut back on their food and maybe they they won't eat less they'll just eat a lower quality diet you know they won't have the expensive pro proteins and you know fresh fruits and vegetables they'll they'll buy less expensive items um because they can't afford uh to buy the more expensive Goods that they used to buy but now are just way too expensive this is one of those things that's so interesting because I know Jamie Diamond has says something similar that the United States is essentially heading towards a cliff we see that there's this clip ahead we like you're mentioning inflation looks like it's going to be getting worse Americans are already spending most if not all of their money they're digging into to savings they're digging it to the 401K they're digging it to the credit cards if that problem gets worse it's going to be even harder for somebody next year to build wealth which means from an economic level like what you were talking about back in the beginning this recession might be worse than what people might expect a lot of people don't even think we're going to have a recession they think we've avoided even a soft Landing but I I think that again we're probably already in a recession it's just that the numbers don't reveal that yet they may have to be revised at some later date maybe after the election we'll get a lot of these revisions uh but not before the economy is a lot weaker than people expect and inflation is a lot stronger instead of this Goldy loock scenario that people Envision it's it's the worst case scenario because you've got weak growth and inflation at the same time and there are people that think that well those two situations are mutually exclusive and they're not I mean that's what they thought in the 60s and then came the 1970s that's when they started using the word stagflation because in the 60s they thought the 70s was impossible but then it happened because the people who thought it was impossible didn't actually understand economics a bunch of keynesians who think inflation is a byproduct of people working or economic growth it's not it's caused by government uh deficit spending and fed money printing which is what we had uh during the QE era we had massive inflation Unleashed by the government uh it was the treasury in you know tandem with the Federal Reserve working together to flood the economy with inflation and now we're experiencing the consequences of all that new money being created and spent into the economy prices are going higher they're going going much higher we're still early in the process where prices are adjusting to a new much higher level given all the the new money but you know people's wages hav't kept pace and of course people's savings uh you know don't you know aren't tied to uh the inflation so uh everybody is being made a lot poorer I mean the people who are benefiting are the very rich who had a lot of debt and owned a lot of assets real assets like you know stocks or real estate uh inflation serve them well but the general public uh you know was was harmed substantially again that's why Biden is so unpopular because the people who are scoring him so low are living in the reality of of this lousy economy they don't exist in in the fake world of Statistics I did a video recently where I looked at the Social Security cost of living increases over the last 5 years which came up right around 22% the reported inflation over that same period CPI was around 20 5% versus the SNP has grown by around 75% so people who like whater mentioned the investors have become significantly wealthier over the last 5 years versus the average person has become poorer but the thing that's interesting about again remember that 12 that 25% increase in the CPI probably equates to a 50% increase in the actual cost of living so those Social Security uh increases haven't come close to covering the add added expenses that Social Security recipients are dealing with but of course all those increased payments directly add to the deficit because the government you know doesn't raise taxes to make higher payments to Social Security uh and so they end up having to print more money to pay for the colas which creates even more inflation which creates bigger colas and so it's like a a process that feeds on itself and I want to talk more about the retirement crisis that a lot of people are worried about in a minute but I think the financially Savvy who are paying attention to this are hearing okay well if there's a recession coming that generally means asset prices stock prices real estate prices would move lower that's what we've seen happen in previous recessions and in previous recessions look at 2020 uh 2008 2000 if I was sitting on a pile of cash I could come in buy stocks for pennies on the dollar I could buy real estate for pennies on the dollar and make a lot of money very quickly is that something that you see coming in the in the next couple of years not necessarily um because if there's a lot of inflation this time which is what I expect um the stock prices and real estate prices may actually not come down that much I mean there may be some individual stocks that do like a lot of overpriced tech stocks so those stocks could come down but the overall stock market may not come down that much real estate market may not come down that much much uh because of inflation but if instead of sitting on a bunch of cash you're sitting on a stock pile of gold that might be the opportunity you may be able to sell your gold and buy a lot of cheap stocks and real estate in terms of your gold because maybe stock prices real estate prices go up 50% right but uh gold goes up 500% right that means that in terms of Gold stock and real estate prices crashed and so I think that's where people are going to see the bargains or maybe even in some foreign currencies you may see uh more significant declines in the value of us uh Financial assets and and real estate so it may not unplay out you know play out the way it's played out in Prior recessions and also you know in Prior recessions the government has been able to artificially Goose the economy with bigger de deficit spending and 0% interest rates but High inflation May prevent that from happening so the FED may not be able to provide the type of stimulus that everybody has been accustomed to and also the bailouts you know when we had the financial crisis when we had covid there were lots of stimulus checks coming in the mail a lot of bailouts we may not be able to do that again uh because the reason we're in so much trouble now is because we borrowed so much money back back then to pay for those bailouts and stimulus programs so this time we may not be able to do it again which means we're going to go through a recession where nobody gets any help from the government and nobody nobody who's failing gets a bailout so uh that could be a much more severe uh economic downturn than we're used to you know without that offsetting help from the government of course the government help came at a huge cost the cost was everything being so much worse in the future because we just kicked a can down the road and made the problems that we were dealing with at the time even bigger but we postponed the Day of Reckoning to some future date that sounds scary especially because in the previous recessions we never really had an inflation issue going into a recession like going into the 2008 financial crisis inflation wasn't really a concern I mean sure maybe when the money printing was happening some people were wor about inflation but it never really became a a real issue same with before the 2020 pandemic now what you're saying is because we already have an inflation issue if we go into a recession which you're saying we're already in getting us out of this mess is going to be a lot more painful is that what I'm hearing well exactly because this the the economic solution that the FED has always come up with for for every problem was inflation in fact if you think about quantitative easing that's just a euphemism for inflation right quantitative easing is inflation it's printing money and buying government bonds that that's inflation that's right there you're inflating the money supply that's where the word comes from it means inflation means to expand and it's the money supply that gets expanded in fact if you get an old enough Webster's Dictionary that's what it says that inflation is an expansion of the supply of money and credit prices simply rise as a consequence of inflation they are not inflation nor do they cause the inflation they result uh from inflation so if the FED has always created inflation to get us out of every recession if we finally have a recession that's actually caused by high inflation where High inflation is the major problem that is uh confronting the economy how does the FED then use its standard Playbook of more inflation to solve a problem that in and of itself was caused by inflation and we're you so that's why they're they're in a a no-win situation right you you can't you can't fight inflation with more inflation and it's not like you know fight a hangover by taking another drink right just you know more of the dog to you that isn't going to work more inflation isn't going to solve a problem of too much inflation but I think that means that the government and the Federal Reserve Bank have to agree with your definition of inflation that inflation the rising prices of things is because of the increase of monetary Supply because you have people in the Federal Reserve Bank people in the government and a lot of Americans who will tell you no inflation is because corporations are greedy it has nothing to do with government spending has nothing to do with a federat or Bank printing money I mean corporations are always greedy and so we should always have inflation then I mean everybody is greedy I mean not just corporations uh everybody who uh has a business is greedy in the sense that they want to make as much profit as they can all workers are greedy I mean they're trying to get the highest wages they can you know when when you're looking for a job you try to find the employer who's going to pay you the most and if you think you're you know you you're worth more you go and demand a raise right so everybody wants to earn more so that can't be the reason that we have inflation or we we'd always have a lot of inflation see the the problem is as greedy as a businessman is a corporation is there's competition yeah I'd love to raise my prices but the problem is the customer will take their business someplace else if I do uh and so really what happens is the greedy businessman the greedy Corporation tries to lower prices what the the the profit-seeking company understands is the lower the price the more I sell so if I can figure out how to lower my price price I'm going to do more business and I'll make even more money because I'll have more sales greed is actually a reason for prices to go down and not for prices to go up so the only reason that you have inflation is that the government is inflating the money supply and so our money is worth less because there's more of it and so now prices have to rise to reflect a new equilibrium with more money and and so that's the only source of inflation and I don't care how the government wants to Define it I mean they're just ignoring the definition because the real definition places the blame for inflation where it belongs on government because if you understand that inflation is the expansion of the money supply well who does that right it's the government greedy corporations don't print money they have to earn the money same thing as Putin Putin can't cause our inflation he can't print our money I mean he can cause inflation in Russia he can print rubles but can't BR dollars so he can't be the source of US inflation so all this is the politicians and the central Bankers trying to shift the blame of inflation onto the public or you know just onto the corporations that everybody hates anyway these damn greedy corporations you know Biden is all upset about what he calls shrinkflation or not he didn't make up that name it's been around but companies have been playing this you know trick for a long time to deal with inflation and and so what companies try to do rather than just raise prices is they just shrink the uh the packages or they put less of a product in a package you know they make the candy bars smaller they put less cereal in a box fewer rolls of toilet paper you know in the roll right and they and and and people don't notice the price increases this is not because they're greedy I mean they're just trying to figure out the best way to pass on inflation to their customers in a way that may not piss them off as much but it's not their fault you know they don't want to put less cereal in the Box uh but they got no choice it's either that or raise the prices right so uh the consumer in many cases responds better to uh a smaller quantity of cereal but you know at some point you can't just keep shrinking these things down forever but there's an irony though where the Federal Reserve Bank is trying to fight inflation they're raising interest rates doing quantitative tightening they're trying to fight inflation but then the government says inflation is a problem we want to bring inflation down but we still have this national deficit that's over a trillion dollars where the government keeps spending money so they're creating inflation while the Federal Bank is fighting inflation so how I mean it's just it's very ironic in that sense to me yes you know the fiscal and monetary policy is working at Cross purposes but the FED is not not really fighting inflation I mean it's a half-ass job at best it's pretending that it's fighting inflation but you know if it really was going to fight inflation it never would have lowered interest rates to zero in the first place we never would have had quantitative easing certainly not you know four rounds of it we wouldn't have done all the covid stimulus the FED wouldn't have dragged its feet raising interest rates when it was obvious that there was an inflation problem already manifesting itself in prices uh so the FED is has not really been fighting I it's pretending to fight and if it really was fighting inflation it wouldn't have stopped hiking rates they're still too low they would have had several more rate hikes they would not be indicating that rate cuts are around the corner when rates are still too low and of course the credit is really expanding I mean there's still too much credit in the system and that's you know on the fed's watch it's still too easy uh to loan money uh we need to you know clamp down on that and you know the big thing is government spending which hasn't uh stopped at all governments send people money and they go out and buy stuff with it and that's bidding up prices so we have to reduce government spending and pal hasn't raised interest rates nearly enough to do that you know if rate is if rates were much higher the government would be cutting spending but they're not because rates are still too low but if we go down the scenario the Federal Reserve Bank doubles where they are with interest rates interest rates the Fed rate is 10% mortgage rates are 14% no one's going to be able to buy a home and how is the government going to pay back their 30 some trillion dollars of debt which now skyrockets in price yeah it will be difficult to buy a home because most people don't want to sell their homes that's the problem and it's expensive to build but to the extent that you want to sell your house and some people have to sell the prices are going to have to crash because that's the way someone's going to afford a 14% mortgage is if they don't have to borrow that much money because they didn't have to pay that much for the house so your house has to go down if you want to sell it but yeah I mean if the FED raises interest rates to a level that might be appropriate to actually fight the inflation it caused that rate would be so high that it would cause a financial crisis that it would not only cause a crisis for the banks but for the US government itself right now the current debt service cost on the $35 trillion national debt right is about 1.1 trillion a year you know if the rates got up to where you're talking you know 14% I don't know be four trillion 5 trillion a year I mean the government would probably have to spend more to service the debt than it collects in taxes in a given year which is obviously not even close to within the realm of possibility I mean even if rates just stay where they are in the low fives you know a year a year and a half from now the government will be spending two trillion a year on interest on the national debt that's more than it spends on Medicare or Social Security I mean right now it's spending more on interest than on National Defense and you know we spend way too much on National Defense we're paying even more in interest so yes if the FED were to really fight inflation we'd have a massive financial crisis in the federal government they would be insolvent which is why the FED is not going to fight inflation it's going to continue to create inflation but it can't be honest about that it can't tell the public what it's going to do it has to keep pretending it's going to do the opposite of what it's actually going to do but as an investor you got to be smart enough to read between those lines and you don't have to be that smart because the lines are pretty far apart and the writing is in bold uh and that's inflation and so people need to be getting out of dollars getting out of treasuries or uh Muni bonds or corporate bonds or things like that and buying gold that's why Gold's just under 2400 uh you know near I hit a new record high overnight you know when people were worried about the bombs going off uh we had a new all-time record high in Gold it's pulled back a bit from that record high um but people should be buying gold and silver they should be getting out of the dollar before the bottom drops out of the dollar and buying foreign assets foreign you know stocks for Real Estate I mean that's what I'm helping people do at europacific asset management and at shift gold I'm helping to prepare people's for folios uh to survive uh the real inflation shock that's coming is there a way that the United States could bypass the recession or bypass this issue because or maybe Kick the Can further down the road maybe that's a better way to put it look I guess we could bypass recession and go straight to depression you know I guess that's one way of doing it um but look you know I mean we may not have a recession if they print enough money and create enough inflation the GDP could keep going up you know as long as they under report the inflation if inflation is 10% and they claim it's you know 5% they can they can turn a 3% declining GDP into a five into a 2% uh expansion right is so if they're not honest about inflation they can always make the GDP go up and and so who knows but the the problem is that higher GDP isn't going to mean anything to the people who actually live in the economy because it's really measuring infl and not economic growth and and this is where now I think somebody listening to this or watching this sees the concern inflation is still an issue the prices of things are still Rising most people's incomes are not growing fast enough to keep up with inflation dealing with the inflation problem is painful that is going to hurt the economy it can hurt me it can hurt everybody but if I don't deal with the inflation problem that's not I mean everything is okay right I mean it's just yeah I mean you can't ignore that you know you know hey but for the tumor in your brain you're fine right I mean you can't ignore that that that problem and it's not just an inflation problem it's a government problem because the government creates the inflation inflation is how the government is paying for all of its spending so the reason that goods and services cost so much is because the government spends so much that's how people people are paying for all these programs so when a President Biden says hey we have this new stimulus plan that we're passing whether it was the inflation reduction act or you know the chips act or whatever they've passed um you know to stimulate the economy and they say don't worry it's not going to cost you anything or oh we're only going to tax the Millionaires and the billionaires no they tax everybody with inflation especially the middle class and the poor because the government has two ways of paying for the programs one is they could do it honestly and raise your taxes uh and then spend the money but that pisses off the people who have to pay the higher taxes so the other way is they just print money right or you know they could borrow the money too that's I guess that's the third way but they ultimately have to pay that money back in the short run it would it would uh push up rates but when they create money and spend that they're not taking your money you still have all your money the problem is they're taking the purchasing power away from your money they're taking that purchasing power creating new money and giving it to somebody who didn't earn it who didn't do anything productive they just collected a government check and now they can take that check to the store and they could buy the same things that you're buying even though you worked and they didn't so all this new buying just bids up prices and so the government takes your purchasing power instead of your money so instead of having less money my money just buys less so at the end of the day I'm in the same place I buy fewer things because of government's need to finance its increased spending so that's what we have we have a government problem and so to solve this government problem I.E inflation we need to cut government spending we need a smaller government so it doesn't have to create so much inflation to pay the bills how do you teach somebody that and what I mean by that is if we go back to the financial crisis when Occupy Wall Street was happening and I know you were very vocal about everything going on then uh people didn't like the idea of bailing out certain Banks and institutions but then you come 2020 and stimulus checks are being handed out now it's give me more give me bigger checks because the money is coming in my pocket not theirs I think look I was opposed to both the bailouts both the bank bailouts and the co bailouts right I think one of the reasons that the public was opposed to the bailouts is because it was the banks that were getting bailed out right the bankers the rich Bankers um and so they didn't like that and and they were right you know in fact a lot of the people getting the bailouts were part of the problem now the government was the real source of the problem but the banks went along for the ride you know it Tak to to tango I always talked about how you know George bus said um Wall Street got drunk and just blamed it all on a drunk Wall Street and I said yeah I agree Wall Street was drunk but don't forget who the bartender was right the Federal Reserve was serving up the drinks so you know you you can't excuse the fed you can't just say Wall Street was drunk and ignore who liquored him up right so the public didn't necessarily get that that's we know when I went to zacati park and I did my I'm the one % a lot of people have seen that video I was trying to let the people know that their anger was misplaced that yes they had a right to be angry but instead of protesting on Wall Street they should have been in Washington DC protesting the fed you know protesting at Congress or the White House they were the problem you know Wall Street just took the bailouts the problem was the government never should have made those bailouts available of course if it wasn't for the government there would have been no reason to bail anybody out because it's the government that created this predicament um but when it came around the covid bailouts they they that was for Main Street too all kinds of small businesses got those covid PPP checks and those forgivable loans that weren't really loans because you didn't have to pay them back uh so it was a Feeding Frenzy a fraud uh people got all kinds of money from the government so there wasn't as much push back because a lot of other people were getting in on the action in fact the banks were not even allowed to get that kind of money they were excluded you know I had a bank at the time and you know it's been shut down but my bank we did really bad we got a hit during Co we had other things going on but we didn't get any government money we didn't even though I had a big loss of Revenue because all my customers were small businesses and they stopped working so our transaction Revenue went down the FED went down to zero so we lost our interest income so we actually lost money I mean my Asset Management Company did great during Co because our assets went up our fees went up so we did really well ironically we could have applied for uh uh money from the PPP I didn't do it because I didn't you know I just you know didn't want to lie like so many other people did to get money I really didn't need because my business went up but at my bank my business actually went way down but I wasn't allowed to qualify I wasn't allowed to apply because the banks were specifically excluded from uh from the program so and that might have been because you know the people didn't like the banks getting bailed out you know so you know they didn't mind everybody else but a lot of big hedge funds took bailout money you know a a lot of you know brokerage firms a lot of people who were actually making more money than they were before covid Were Somehow able to get all these uh forgivable loans which you know they didn't repay some people repaid them but I think that's the main reason that you didn't get the protest but I protested them all I protested the Wall Street bailouts I protested the Co I protested the PPP program all of these programs made the economic problems worse not better and the PPP program I think was named the largest financial fraud in American history with the amount of fraud that happened through that oh yeah I mean I said that was going to happen the day it was announced I said you got to be kidding me and there were actually some people that considered they had some motions raised you know hey maybe we should have some checks and balances here to make sure people aren't lying and they're like no no no we can't do that that's heartless you know we can't we can't make people prove that they you know what they're saying we just have to give out the money to everybody who asked for it you know no questions asked you know and the dumbest thing they did was if you lost your job you got like triple two to three times what you got when you had a job so we created an incentive for people to leave their jobs because they earned more money staying at home watching television and shopping on on Amazon than schlepping over to work every day and actually somebody proposed an amendment that says that you're unemployment must cap out at what you used to earn like meaning you can't make more on unemployment than you would have earned but even that wasn't that great because if I had a choice between earning you know $700 working 40 hours a week and commuting back and forth to a crappy job or I can just get the same $700 and not have to go to work at all just stay at home and not even get out of my pajamas right I'm going to take you know I'm going to take the the money without having to do the work but they wanted to at least say look we're not going to let people get more money staying home than if they had a job and they and they and they shot that down they said no no no we can't do that that's too mean so I mean it was the stupidest fiscal monetary policy combination in history what what they did uh we haven't even felt all the effects yet and going off of what you were saying I think that kind of worries people what about what might be coming in the future uh like you I didn't take any PPP money even though we were not using our office and not paying a lot of expenses like we didn't have but that has people worried about well if interest rates are higher today than what they were and they continue to stay high that's going to hurt some banks too like we saw what happened to the Silicon Valley Bank there's got to be other banks that are holding on to like commercial real real estate uh loans and assets we're going to jump back into the show in just a minute but before we do here are a few words from her sponsor policy genius term life insurance is a financial tool that you can use to protect your family in case of a tragedy because if you are the breadwinner of a family and if something were to tragically happen to you and you 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went down they refi they' refi they refi I did it myself I have one mortgage on one property that I have and I'm at three and 38 now I probably could have refinance it again and gotten even below three I just I I didn't I I missed that last wave but I was down at 3 and 38 so Americans kept refinancing their their mortgages they kept saying this is great for the economy because now Americans have really locked in these low rates this is good because it frees up money now you know if I reduce my mortgage payment by maybe $1,000 a month well I have $1,000 a month for food or you know vacation or whatever right I have all this extra money to spend because I got a really low mortgage and they said hey this is good for the economy well what I was saying for years was that this is a ticking Time Bomb for the banking system because the banks are stuck with that paper and I said so for now as long as the fed's got rates at zero and these banks have mortgages that are 3 4% all right they're making money because they've got a low cost of money but I said what happens when the FED has to raise interest rates above the level of those mortgages that means the banks are losing money on every mortgage that they've written and that is the case that they're in now I mean just about every mortgage is a money loser for the bank that holds the paper and to the extent that they need to sell that mortgage into the market because their customers want their money back for whatever reason they're going to be selling at 80 cents on the dollar. 70 cents on the dollar 60 cents on the dollar most banks are actually insolvent if they had to sell all their whole to maturity assets they'd be insolvent and so I pointed this out years and years ago that we were creating a time bomb uh and now as a result our entire banking system is basically insolvent and If the Fed raised interest rates to the level they need to be we would see that because we'd have a lot more failures uh than you know the ones that we had a year ago with Silicon Valley Signature Bank and you know a few others uh because I think all the banks are in the same predicament I think it's like you know the subprime crisis I mean initially you know the FED said that was contained you know well what was maybe contained of planet Earth it wasn't really contained but at the time I said that this was the tip of the iceberg it wasn't contained it was just that it showed up in the subprime market first because that was you know the weakest link in the chain but you know eventually all the mortgages would have a similar problem and that's what happened I mean some of the banks that failed a year ago they were just the weakest ones they were the ones that you know had the most amount of their deposits yanked and they were exposed to these loans and it's not just mortgages it's treasuries banks are losing a fortune on their treasury bonds they were lending money to the government they were buying these longterm treasury bonds with a 2 or 3% coupon and that was fine when they borrowed from the FED at zero and loan to the treasury at three but now that they're borrowing from the FED at five and they're stuck with 3% paper they're losing a lot of money so if we break that down because I think there's a lot just in that if I'm a bank and I lent you money to buy a home for let's say 3 and 1 12% but now mortgage rates are close to 7% double that you're saying that because I've already issued that loan you're only paying me back 32% I'm losing money or I'm underwater as the bank on that mortgage because interestes are higher today and let's say I went to sell that mortgage if if current mortgage rates are 7% and I've got a mortgage that's 3 and a half% the only way I can sell that is if I discount the mortgage by a large enough number so that the new buyer gets a 7% return on the money and so that means that I can't sell the mortgage for 100 cents on the dollar maybe the mortgage was for 500,000 but in order for the yield to be uh 7% and I'm not I'm not I don't have a bond calculator so I'm not doing this exact but let's say in order to get that yield the most I can sell that mortgage for is $350,000 right well that means I lose $150,000 on the transaction well these banks are highly leveraged I mean they've got you know a tiny amount of Reserve so if they take that kind of haircut on a bunch of loans that could wipe out all their capital and I think that's one of those things that isn't a problem until it becomes a problem because well if a bank is underwater you can be underwater in your home it's not a problem unless you can't make your payments it's not a problem and what happens with the bank let's say I've got a $500,000 mortgage that I can only sell for $350,000 the bank is not required to write down that asset on its balance sheet it can just claim well I'm going to carry it at 500,000 because I'm going to hold it till it matures 25 years from now well that may be your intention but you may not be able to do it if there's a run on the bank uh you can't say well we're sorry we're holding our mortgages to maturity no if your depositors decide they want their money you got to sell that hold the maturity asset and then you're going to get what it's actually worth and if you know all these banks have been living in a financial fiction because they haven't marked those assets to Market and now all of a sudden they have to sell them well the banks are immediately insolvent but in the case of mortgages I at least in that instance if it's a $500,000 mortgage hopefully the home is worth let's just say $600,000 but I think it's even worse in some commercial real estate instances where you have an office building that is a $10 million mortgage at 3% where the building is only worth $5 million now because it's well it's a very different situation so in residential real estate the banks are just losing money on every mortgage they have not because the real estate has gone down in fact the real estate has gone up they're losing money because uh interest rates have gone up and and the value of those mortgages that they own have crashed and that also creates an incentive for the borrower to stay in the home the banks would love these homes to be sold so that the mortgages would be repaid but the homeowners they don't want to sell these homes because they don't want to repay these mortgages they want to keep these mortgages because it's very cheap money um but the commercial real estate is a completely different ball game they real estate prices have crashed and in um the commercial world you don't have 30-year fixed rate mortgages I mean most of the commercial mortgages are three five years maybe 7 10 Max right so these loans are coming due and the borrowers don't want to roll them over or can't even roll them over because the collateral has lost so much value I mean if I borrowed $100 million to buy an office building that's now worth 75 million or even 50 million the smart move for me to do is just walk away just like you know people did on their residential homes during the uh 20078 you know bust and the banks are going to lose a fortune on those commercial loans because commercial commercial real estate has gotten killed uh from a number of factors I mean one is rising interest rates itself means commercial real estate is less valuable because it's valued like a bond you have a cap rate and the lower the interest rate the more the property is worth and so when interest rates went from Z to 5% that automatically meant that commercial real estate values came down quite a bit but then you had two other things that happened one for the retail sector you had a real nightmare because so many people started shopping online over the last 5 or 10 years that a lot of these stores are not you know selling enough because their customers are shopping on Amazon um also what's happened you know ever since uh covid or you know the George Floyd protests is crime has skyrocketed in uh a lot of these retail outlets so their their losses due to theft have gone off the charts um and so a lot of these retailers they just want to shut down their operations you know they they don't want these stores anymore because they can't make money uh the police don't enforce the laws their insurance rates have skyrocketed so you have lower sales because of online competition and then a lot of your stuff is just getting stolen by uh by people who you know are emboldened by the lack of legal enforcement uh and so this is killing the the real estate market for uh retail you know shopping centers uh strip malls you know whatever you just stores so that's one part of the commercial real estate the other part is Office Buildings so Office Buildings got clobbered because so many people are working from home a lot of that started from covid so I'm a company and I have let's say an office space and I have all these desks and cubicles and offices and maybe I have enough space for 200 people but now only 20 or 30 of them actually show up for work the rest of them are at home well I don't need all that space anymore a lot of businesses are decided they don't need any space meanwhile you had a big bankruptcy of Wei workor they had rented all sorts of space which is now on the market for sublease uh so it's a disaster there uh so prices have collapsed and the banks are holding all the bad paper so this is much worse I think than 2008 for the banks no you know because in 2008 commercial real estate wasn't a problem at all it was only residential and the banks were only losing money on the mortgages that went into default today they're losing a fortune on Commercial Real Estate and they're losing money on every mortgage that's current all the mortgages that are paid that they're that they're being paid on those are the ones they're losing on so so it's so much worse yet nobody understands it wow and can do you think that that banking crisis could then trickle down to home prices because I think banking crisis at the end of the day doesn't really affect the average person unless of of course there's a bailout um but it becomes a bigger issue if home prices are falling now that affects the average American yeah I mean I don't know I mean home prices could eventually fall certainly in in in in in individual markets but what's keeping home prices from falling is the fact that so many Americans have locked in these low rates and they don't want to move they don't want to sell uh and so that's keeping the Supply off the market and so that makes it harder for people who want to buy homes because the people that own them don't want to sell them you know and and if you're building a new home it's unaffordable because the construction costs are very high and then once it's constructed you got to borrow money now the the home builders have been buying down the mortgages um but that in effect reduces the price that they're getting for their homes so I'm not really sure you know how much margin they make on these homes when they've got to buy down the mortgage the reason why this I think home ownership and home prices is so important to people obviously is because well it's the American dream I want to buy a home be a homeowner build this generational wealth so I can pass it down and live free during retirement which brings me to the topic that I like to discuss which is of course retirement and we kind of talked on this a little bit earlier and we're obviously a lot of Americans who are getting close to retirement age have nowhere near as much money as they need they're going to be leaning more and more on Social Security social security has a asset value or assets that are dropping meaning they're paying out more money and then bring it in which means now if you're 30 years old you're paying it to Social Security you're not paying for your retirement you're paying for somebody else to retire so what what does that lead us so first of all so two things first um home ownership you know buying a home um that's not the American dream I mean that's the the realtor's dream right it was a perversion of the American dream that the American dream was just owning a home and then just getting rich because your home appreciates the American dream uh meant that you can come to America and and work hard and succeed and and and you can earn enough money to buy a home right not that the dream wasn't owning the home the dream was to be able to afford to buy one because you came to a free country where you can rise as far as your talents and your ambition and your drive will take you right you weren't your your lot in life wasn't preconditioned based on who your parents were or whether you know whether you were nobility or something or whether you were you know connected to the government right everybody had a fair shot in America I mean if you worked hard and you were smart you persevered right anybody could get rich anybody can go from the mail room to the boardroom and you know you you you could get rich and when you get rich you buy a house but they perverted the American dream which was this I'm going to buy a house I don't have to work very hard I just have to qualify for a morgage and then my house is going to go way up and I'm going to get rich because I own a home right that and that again the Realtors made this up but it was possible because of the cheap money from the FED that was inflating home prices uh and the introduction of all kinds of government subsidies guaranteed loans and other uh programs that made it easier for people to pay higher price prices for houses and that kept pumping up uh prices so that people who already owned homes could could sell them for uh a larger amount of money or could use them to for collateral to borrow more money but this is all part of the bubble you know and it you know part of the part of the problem that we're we're we're dealing with Social Security that's another you know problem massive problem it dates all the way back to the creation of the Ponzi scheme uh in the 1930s with Roosevelt you know so before the 1930s there was no social security so the country made it from you know 1790 to 1834 whatever it was or 1934 without any Social Security and in fact Social Security didn't even apply to the self-employed until the mid1 1950s so if you if you ran your own small business you weren't even part of the Social Security System um it was just you know people who had a a job right a W2 employees that were were were taking part but the whole thing was a lie because they pretended it was insurance they said you were paying premiums uh and there was some kind of trust fund but it was all a lie nobody paid a premium they paid a tax there is no real trust fund the government just spends all the money Social Security is not funded like a private sector uh retirement program in fact if the private sector ran a retirement program the way the government runs Social Security they'd all be in jail uh because they're running a Ponzi scheme and Ponzi schemes are are illegal but this is an intergenerational a Ponzi scheme and we're on the verge of complete implosion uh the baby boom and I am uh at the tail end of the baby boom I was born in 1963 the last Boomer was born in 1964 right and so I'm 61 and and so I'm almost that retirement age right some people don't retire till 67 you know the 70 but most of the Baby Boomers already entered retirement but the rest of us are chasing it pretty quick right we're going to get there there's no money in fact these phony Social Security trust funds the way the trust funds worked is the government would collect Social Security taxes then pay out the benefits and if there was any money left over the government borrowed it out and and put an IOU in the trust fund a Government Bond so any extra money that was left over the government just spent it on other programs so there's no money there the government took it all and you know right now the Social Security funds are actually collecting Less in taxes than they're spending already so the system already doesn't work and so what the government is doing now is they're taking the treasury bonds that are in those trust funds and they're selling them into the market so in addition to the national debt right where we have to sell two or three trillion dollars a year of treasuries to fund the national debt the Social Security trust funds are also selling treasuries to the same pool of buyers to pay social security see Social Security used to help fund the deficit now it's competing and we have a bigger deficit because of the selling of treasuries out of these phony trust funds um and so that's another part of this debt uh uh you know bomb that's about to go off because the biggest the biggest buyers of our debt used to be the Fed foreign central banks and and government trust funds government trust funds are selling the FED is selling and foreign central banks aren't buying the next thing is they're going to really start selling so this whole Bond bubble uh collapses and either interest rate Skyrocket or inflation skyrockets because the Federal Reserve prevents rates from skyrocketing by printing even more money to buy up the bonds that everybody else is selling and they reverse course and they go from quantitative Tiding back to quantitative easing on steroids and then inflation goes through the roof but you know Social Security was a horrible idea it was sold to the public as a lie uh they never would have approved it had the government been honest about its financing um but it's it's unconstitutional the government should not be involved in this people should save for their own retirement uh they would do a much better job than the government because the government didn't save a nickel they took everybody's money and then spent at all uh but if people had their social security uh taxes and what the employer paid on their behalf which would have been theirs if the employer didn't send it to the government instead of the worker uh they could have built a a real uh retirement neste instead they depend on a on a government Ponzi scheme uh which unfortunately you know is it going to work because it's like it's done the thing is unraveling as we speak and people think well it's going to be a problem for the future when the trust funds run out of money they're already broke and the only money they have is government debt that they sell and that really becomes a cyclical issue like what you're talking about because everybody who's on Social Security dependent on Social Security is hoping for bigger Social Security checks but if the fund doesn't have any Social Security money to pay out what do you do you got to print more money to pay out bigger Social Security checks which means hey you got a bigger social security check but then that at the same time and the problem the problem with people on social security or who are close to Social Security is that's the most important position for a candidate to get their vote so if you indicate that Social Security is being cut you're not going to get the votes of the people who are collecting Social Security or who expect to be collecting Social Security anytime soon and so nobody will cut Social Security which means everybody's Social Security is going to get massively cut by inflation I mean that's the only politically viable way to deliver the pain because the politicians don't want to be the actual messenger of that pain you know they shoot the messengers uh and in in the case of politicians they don't reelect them uh and so when they create inflation as I said earlier they can blame it on other things greedy corporations you know OPEC uh Putin whatever they want uh but people are going to see the value of their Social Security payments destroyed because the only alternative is that they don't get the money in the first place but there's no way they're going to get the purchasing power they expect because the government can't afford it now they can also have significant increases in the payroll tax but no politician wants to propose that either or the people who pay that tax won't vote for them so they can't raise taxes they can't cut spending so all they can do is create inflation which is what they're going to do which is again why I'm saying that people need to protect themselves from this inflation tax and they need to get those Protections in place as quickly as possible you know we're running out of time here for you to buy gold I mean it's 2400 that may seem expensive but it's actually very cheap uh especially relative to where it's about to go and I think you can get there very quickly uh so people need to buy gold they need to buy silver maybe even more so Silver's about $28 uh it was $24 a couple of weeks ago but it was $50 you know in 2011 it was $50 in 2008 not many things that you can buy for half the cost of what it was in 2008 so silver is one of those things but one by one look what's happened to Coffee look what's happened to Cocoa I mean prices are just skyrocketing I mean this is going to be like a dominoes uh of of big price increases and people need to get their portfolios ready for the new era you can't hold the Magnificent 7 anymore you can't hold the NASDAQ you know it's like holding the nifty50 stocks from the 1960s throughout the entirety of the 1970s you got your ass handed to you if you stayed with Polaroid and Xerox and those kind of names the people that made money in the stagflation decade of the 70s they owned gold and silver they own gold stocks they own oil stocks agricultural stocks uh they owned foreign stocks they had money in Japan they had money in Germany that I mean that's what you need to do you need to have a 70s portfolio only even more so uh because the problems that the US faces today are far more severe than the problem we had in 1970 and the inflationary consequences that are going to unfold in the decade ahead are going to be much worse and have much more profound implications for your investment so it's even more important that you get it right remember during the 70s gold went from $35 an ounce to$ 800 wow right so you know that was a big big move you know oil prices went from $3 a barrel to $30 a barrel that's a tenfold increase uh so think about you know how your world would look if oil prices went up 10 fold from here do you think there's geopolitical risk to this as well because there's been a lot of you probably heard and I know you've talked about this as well the bricks Nations working to create potentially new currency backed by gold other central banks around the world are working to accumulate gold do you think there's also geopolitical moves here as to why people want to get away from the dollar yeah look there's a de dollarization is happening right now I mean it's starting off slow but it's going to be building up momentum as uh as we go forward so yeah and we you know we accelerated the process process that I think was already too slow um uh you know with our sanctions you know Biden by putting sanctions on Russia for the Ukraine Invasion sent a the wrong message to not only Russia but to the rest of the world you know that this could happen to you next that if you do something that pisses us off we're going after your your dollars we're going after your treasuries we're going to kick you out of the Swift system and so the message that we sent was get out of the dollar you know before we have a chance to do that and and so the world is is paying attention and and doing just that so you've been because of those reasons obviously been very adamant about gold but rumor has it you've been warming up to the idea of Bitcoin as well is that true yeah well you know a lot of people have gotten suckered into the Bitcoin sales pitch um a lot of people are going to lose a lot of money in Bitcoin unfortunately I mean a lot of people made a lot of money because they bought it years and years ago and they're selling it now but you know just like Social Security it's like any kind of Ponzi scheme the people that started collecting Social Security in the 1940s 1950s yeah they made they made out like Bandits but the people who are expecting to collect it now right especially like not the Baby Boomers but you know generation XYZ whatever it is the Millennials uh all they're doing is paying taxes they're never going to collect any real money out of social security so uh the the people who are buying Bitcoin now they're just paying for the gains of the people that bought it years ago because they're you're buying the Bitcoin that they're selling but you know Bitcoin is is not digital gold I mean first of all look what happened last night you know we had the uh the missiles you know were dropping people were panicking and immediately the S&P sold off one and a half% as soon as we got the news of uh you know the the the uh the the Israeli retaliation against Iran so the S&P futures immediately knee-jerk are down 1 and a half% gold immediately is up 1 and a half% made a record high of like uh 2415 what happened to bitcoin it dropped 6% it dropped more than the stock market so how it's not a safe haven it's not a hedge I mean it's riskier than what people might be hedging so it can't be digital gold if it's not a safe haven but but also it's not a store of value so it's not an inflation hedge because Bitcoin doesn't actually have any value that you could store I mean it has a price right there's a market price for Bitcoin but there's no underlying value uh to support that price there's just supply and demand to support it but gold is an actual metal it's a precious metal a physical commodity the most useful metal on the periodic table and when you're storing gold you're storing all the future use of that metal uh people can use your gold in the future uh to do all kinds of things and so there will be demand and when inflation makes the price of wheat go up and the price of oil go up and the price of pork bellies go up you know it makes the price of gold go up right all these Commodities go up when there's inflation but Bitcoin is not really a commodity even though the cftc you know says this commodity as opposed to a security but it doesn't have a real use like any of the other Commodities all you can do with Bitcoin is send it to somebody else that's the only use you have you you know and it is very easy I acknowledge that it's very easy uh but the reason it's so easy to send Bitcoin is because you're sending nothing sending nothing is a lot easier than sending something uh so as long as you're willing to accept nothing then great Bitcoin is is perfect but the problem is eventually people don't want nothing they're going to want something uh but you know as long as there's a fool willing to buy Bitcoin there's a price and and people can pretend that it's some kind of digital version of gold but it's not digital gold is no more gold than digital food is food right I can't eat digital food yes I can I can make an image on uh a computer that looks just like a you know a ham sandwich you know but I can't take a bite out of it it's not going to satisfy my Hunger in fact if you have a diet of digital food you'll die of starvation right so you can't substitute know I was I I did some Bitcoin debate the other day and I you know somebody put a comment and they tried to say look I don't get it you know that Bitcoin is the digital version of gold gold is analog and Bitcoin is digital and one of the examples he used was photography he said we used to have you know film and now we have digital photography and so this is the same thing it's not the same thing because when I have a digital photograph I still have a picture right you know so you know if if you want to get take a picture of your kids you can use a digital camera you still get a picture you don't need uh film right you don't need an old school uh Kodak film or a Polaroid I can take a digital picture and still get you know a picture a photograph that's not the same thing if I take digital gold Bitcoin rather and I say well I'm going to use Bitcoin instead of a digital gold no I don't get a metal I can't make anything out of it look I got a bracelet I'm wearing here which is uh 24 karat gold bracelet that I bought this at Mane man.com they're great jewelry store I love their stuff um but you can't make this this bracelet out of Bitcoin uh in fact you can't make Bitcoin without gold because the gold is in the computer chips to conduct the electricity um a a a and so I can't put Bitcoin in a computer chip to conduct electricity there won't be any electricity conducted right so you can't replace gold with Bitcoin the way I can replace an old school camera with a digital camera or you know I have my music digitally I don't have to have a record right I can have digital music because I can still hear the sounds I can still dance to the beat right so it still works but digital gold doesn't do anything that real gold does just like like digital food doesn't do anything that real food does so some things can work digitally and others can't and gold can't be replicated digitally and so Bitcoin is not digital gold it's Fool's Gold so you still believe that Bitcoin is on its way down to zero uh because it really has no value despite that ETFs are now coming in buying tons of Bitcoin you have black rock buying Bitcoin and all that it's still a worthless first of all black Brock and all those big Wall Street firms aren't buying Bitcoin their customers are buying Bitcoin they're just booking the bets they've established these ETFs and they let their customers buy them if they want to Wall Street will let you do any dumb thing as long as they can make a commission that's true right I mean so that's what's going on they're just they're just getting in on it I I don't think too many people at these big firms are buying for their own accounts right this is just the customers accounts but this is where all the buying is come from to drive Bitcoin up to 73 74,000 whatever the high was it was all the anticipation of the ETFs and then the initial flurry of buying that took place by the ETFs but I think that's over and I think the next big move is selling out of the ETFs because I think a lot of people rushed in uh with the expectations of a moonshot 100,000 200,000 million thought they're buying a safe haven a store value uh I think once Bitcoin you know breaks below 60,000 maybe below 50,000 I think a lot of the people that got in are going to try to get out now I don't think these are long-term hoders these are not dieh hard true believers they just jumped on a a fad they thought they could make a quick Buck some of these people sold their gold ETFs or their gold stocks to to take a shot at Bitcoin and when it doesn't pan out when it doesn't go the way they expect I don't expect them to hodal you know for the end of time I think they'll cut their losses or take a small profit depending on when they got in and they'll move on the problem is they're not going to be able to sell the market will crash because there's no buying because in order for people to when they sell their their ETFs the ETF has to take the Bitcoin and sell it into the market which means there has to be a real buyer for those Bitcoin who's going to pay real dollars you can't pay with tether I just don't think there'll be enough liquidity uh to support you know the Redemption there there was there was liquidity to support the purchases because sure there were plenty of people who wanted to unload their Bitcoin into the ETFs but not that many of the the whales who unloaded their coins are going to want to buy them back I mean not at these prices they're get maybe at much lower prices they'll they'll take a shot at it again but yeah you know I don't think that Bitcoin is going to go to zero anytime soon but it can get pretty damn close but I think there'll always be people not always but at least in the foreseeable future people will be willing to trade Bitcoin I mean if you could buy a Bitcoin for a dollar again somebody will do it so I don't know that it's going to go to zero but I mean I do think they'll be trading bankrupt companies trade right they trade for pennies but they don't go to zero even though they're inherently worthless they're still people trading the shares um so people could be trading Bitcoin for a while so it may take a a long time before it goes to zero but it's going to feel like zero I mean if you lose 99% of your money a Bitcoin even if it goes to 100 even if it goes to a th000 you know if you bought it at 60 70,000 and it goes to a th000 it's going to feel like it went to zero even if it didn't well let's see what happens with Bitcoin because a lot of people are obviously very hopeful with Bitcoin being a digital currency and I know you know you've been very adamant and vocal about your opinions on it so I always appreciate that but it looks like all roads lead to inflation the government spending leading to inflation the Federal Reserve Bank leading to inflation issues with the economy coming back to inflation Social Security leading to inflation and obviously you've been very admin about how to protect yourself through gold where else can people learn more about you and your gold uh brokerage services and everything else that you have to offer well for gold they can go to shift gold just my last name sff gold.com um and just um you know call the phone number there talk to our Representatives about gold and how it would fit into your portfolio of course when I talk about gold we also deal in other precious metals like silver uh you know Platinum plaum but mostly gold and silver uh that's what in most investors are interested in although most investors aren't interested at all that they should be but those who are interested generally look at gold and silver over uh the other metals uh but uh you know talk to somebody at shift gold and I think the sooner you buy the better I think that we're just headed higher it doesn't mean that we're going to go higher every day but I think we're on a upward trajectory now we've broken out of you know a decade long consolidation you know gold initially ran up to almost 2,000 in 2011 and it didn't really break out until just recently it got a little bit above it during covid and then a little while ago but now we're almost 20% above uh above 2000 so it's a solid breakout I think we're headed to many many times higher uh same with silver so people should just buy you know now rather than buy later because if you buy later you're just going to pay a lot more um and for you know the bulk of your portfolio because I don't think gold is an investment I think it's money I think you you save gold instead of Fiat currencies or instead of uh crypto you want to save gold and silver uh but Investments uh generate returns I look at Investments at least the ones that I manage as the stocks that I buy uh Global equities uh good dividend paying companies around the world so you should go to EUR Pacific Asset Management the website is zack.com uh speak to one of our Representatives about transferring over an account uh for me to manage and my team to manage International portfolio if you're kind of a do-it-yourselfer I have five mutual funds that we manage in the europacific fund family you can buy them no load um at just about every discount brokerage firm uh that's out there I think probably all the discounts and and some of the bigger ones um I've got a go fund of course your Pacific go fund managed by Adrien day I've got an emerging market fund I've got an international value fund an international dividend payers fund and an international bond fund and I think these are the types of portfolios that should do very well if my thesis is correct on stagflation Rising commodity prices and a falling dollar well thank you Peter a very enlightening conversation that I always appreciate your time thank you yeah and and then don't forget listen to my podcast I do my own podcast that shift radio the Peter shift show you can listen on my YouTube channel go to shift radio.com I do one or two a week generally sometimes I mean if if the situation warrants it if I have time I've done more uh but I think it's great to you know and then follow me on social media you know I've got over a million followers now on Twitter uh I'm on all the platforms Facebook Instagram Tik Tok but Twitter or not x i shouldn't really call it Twitter X I post very frequently on on a I I do them all myself so you're not read I'm not paying somebody else to to compose uh these posts for me I do it myself so if you want to know what I'm thinking in real time you should follow me on X and and try to get some of your friends to follow me as well I appreciate that everybody go out follow Peter on X check out his radio show I I read it listen to it very often so I appreciate all the Nuggets that you put out there as well thank you Peter for your time all right thanks for having me on take care have a great weekend you too bye but that's why there's no Financial education in schools cuz if you knew how to handle debt you wouldn't save that crappy dollar you have in your hand I'd rather I'd rather borrow the money taxfree and then do what with it I have to invest it to make more money you know when I talk to most idiots out there they go oh I have a 401k I go well you've been sold the bill of good sweetheart

Channel: Minority Mindset

Views: 188,585

Keywords: minoritymindset, minority mindset, minority123, jaspreet singh, rethink rich, financial education, financial literacy, finances, stock market, stocks 101, how to invest, money management, investing 101, building wealth, how to manage money, financial advice, investing, buying stocks, housing market, inflation, wealth, passive income, personal finance, real estate, real estate 101, real estate investing

Id: A_A0b1NfPMw

Length: 85min 38sec (5138 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 23 2024