THE FLIRTATION. IT IS BOLSTERING HOPES THAT THE FED WILL START CUTTING INTEREST RATES SOON. THERE IS A LOT TO CHEER ABOUT AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND BUT WHAT ARE THE NEXT CATALYSTS FOR THIS MARKET? LET'S TALK ABOUT IT WITH OUR LEADOFF PANEL. WE HAVE CRAIG JOHNSON AND ALTERNATIVE ASSET MANAGEMENT CHIEF STRATEGIST DAN GREENHOUSE . THINK YOU GUYS BOTH FOR BEING HERE. CRAIG, LET ME START WITH YOU. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT CATALYSTS FOR THIS MARKET. WE ARE PAST THE BULL GOVERNING SEASON AND WE ARE GOING INTO THE SUMMER MONTHS. WHAT IS OUT THERE AT THIS POINT I COULD TAKE THIS MARKET HIGHER? >> IT WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT. IT WILL HAVE TO BE SOMETHING ALONG THE LINES OF INFLATION, PERHAPS AN INDICATION THAT THE CPI, WHEN IT COMES OUT IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS -- THAT WILL BE SOFTER IN A YEAR. PERHAPS DEALS FURTHER COMING DOWN GIVEN THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE S&P 500 AND INTEREST RATES RIGHT NOW. IT WILL PERHAPS HAVE TO BE IN THE JOB FRONT. IT WILL BE ONE OF THESE THINGS. WE ARE THROUGH EARNINGS AND WE ARE THROUGH THE FED MEETING AND THE NEXT CATALYST IS GOT TO BE SOMETHING RELATED WITH THE FED. PERHAPS THE LOWERING OF THE FED EXPECTATIONS. >> DAN, WHAT YOU SEE? CRAIG SAYS IT HAS TO BE ECONOMIC DATA. >> I THINK CRAIG IS PROBABLY RIGHT. WE ARE COMING TOWARD THE END OF THE BULK OF EARNINGS. THERE ARE SOME COMPANIES THAT WILL COME IN THE LAST WEEK OR TWO, WALMART AND DISNEY. A COUPLE OF RETAILERS THAT YOU WILL WANT TO LISTEN TO FOR SOME INDICATION THAT SOMETHING MAY BE GOING ON WITH THE CONSUMERS ALTHOUGH I THAT AS OF YET. AGAIN, CRAIG IS RIGHT. SOMETHING ON THE INFLATION FRONT PLAYING INTO THE MOVE WILL GO HIGHER. >> DAN, YOU MENTIONED THE CONSUMER. >> THE EARNINGS SCORECARD, WE TALKED ABOUT WAGES ALL DAVE -- DAY. THAT IS ENCOURAGING IF YOU ARE GOLDMAN SACHS. IF YOU ARE ON WALL STREET -- NOT ENCOURAGING IF YOU ARE A WAGE EARNER. WE SAW SOME QUESTION EARLIER IN THE WEEK ABOUT SOME OF THE RETAIL CONSUMERS AND WHETHER OR NOT THEY ARE STARTING TO CRACK AGAINST ALL OF THESE PRICES. STARBUCKS MAY HAVE BEEN THE BIG BELLWETHER FOR THAT. CRAIG, AS YOU LOOK AT THE CONSUMER AND THE WAGES, DOES THAT START TO GIVE YOU SOME PAUSE THAT MAYBE WE ARE OUT OVER OUR FEET? >> ABSOLUTELY. OUR CHEAP GLOBAL ECONOMIST PUT OUT A GREAT REPORT THIS WEEK, TALKING ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND TALKING ABOUT THE CONSUMER AND TALKING ABOUT SOME OF THESE PIECES THAT YOU WERE MENTIONING HERE. I AGREE. THE WEAKNESS IN McDONALD'S, THESE ARE ALL CONCERNS THAT ARE STILL UP THERE. A LOWER END CONSUMER IS STILL GETTING SQUEEZED AND INFLATION IS STILL STICKY. WE CONTINUE TO THINK THAT THIS IS AN ECONOMY THAT WILL HAVE SOME CHALLENGES GOING FORWARD. >> I WAS JUST GOING TO SAY, YOU ARE WATCHING ROPE SLOWING, STICKY INFLATION. YOU ARE SEEING NOW A TICK UP IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE. THAT IS AN INTERESTING COMPOSITION. THERE CERTAINLY WAS A LOT OF QUESTION WITH THE CLIENTS THAT WE WERE HAVING CONVERSATIONS WITH TODAY. >> THAT IS A QUESTION FOR YOU. IT IS THIS MOMENT WHERE ECONOMISTS SAY THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD DYNAMIC. YOU'VE GOT INFLATION THAT WILL COME DOWN AND WAGES MODERATE A LITTLE BIT. THAT IS GOOD. IF YOU ARE THE CONSUMER, YOU ARE CAUGHT BETWEEN THAT WAGE NUMBER AND THAT CONSUMER NUMBER. IF YOU'RE WAITING FOR INFLATION TO COME DOWN, YOU ARE GETTING LOWER WAGES. YOU ARE STUCK. OF COURSE YOU WILL SEE THAT PLAY OUT IN McDONALD'S. >> LISTEN, IT IS A DIFFICULT CONVERSATION TO HAVE, WHY THE WAGES IS A GOOD THING. I WILL PUT GOOD". WE BELIEVE THAT FOR ANOTHER DAY. ONE POINT I DO WANT TO MAKE RIGHT NOW -- CRAIG IS GREAT. NANCY IS GREAT. I HAVE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE WEAKENING CONSUMER FOR A YEAR NOW. IT IS NOT THAT I DON'T BUY IT. IT IS THE LOWER INCOME CONSUMER. AS CRAIG MENTIONED, A COUPLE OF COMPANIES HAVE WORN OUT BUT I ALSO FALL BACK ON THE CREDIT CARD COMPANIES. IMAGINE, WHO COVERS SPENDING ACROSS PRODUCTS AND GOODS AND SERVICES. MASTERCARD JUST REPORTED, THEY MENTIONED A HEALTHY CONSUMER FIVE DIFFERENT TIMES IN THEIR CALL. VISA AND A MIX SAID SOMETHING SIMILAR ON THEIR CALLS. DOORDASH REPORTED THEY PROCESSED 620 MILLION ORDERS AND THEY SAID THEY DON'T SEE ANY CHANGE IN CONSUMER BEHAVIOR AND LIVE NATION REPORTED JUST TODAY THAT THEIR CALL -- THEY ALSO SAID THEY SEE NO WEAKNESS IN THE CONSUMER. I DON'T DISAGREE THAT STARBUCKS AND McDONALD'S MAY BE SEEKING SOMETHING THAT EVERYONE ELSE IS AND BUT I WOULD PUT THE EMPHASIS ON EVERYONE ELSE'S AND. >> CRAIG, LET ME ASK YOU. WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS ON THE S&P YOU ARE LOOKING FOR? >> LET ME GET ON THAT REAL QUICK. ONE SECOND. I WOULD PUSH BACK A LITTLE BIT AND SAY CREDIT CARD DEBT IS ON THE RISE OUT HERE AND THAT IS AN ISSUE. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WILL START TO TAKE UP. ALL OF THE SUDDEN, THAT COULD BECOME A REAL ISSUE REALLY FAST, DON'T YOU THINK? >> YEAH. DAN, WHAT DO YOU THINK? DAN, WE LOST YOU THERE. I THINK YOU HAVE A MUTE PROBLEM. >> MY DOG WAS BARKING. I APOLOGIZE.
