DRF Saturday Race of the Day | Grade 1 Kentucky Derby | May 4, 2024

[Applause] hi everybody dan man Mike beer the drf race of the day for Saturday May the 4th of course it's race number 12 at Churchill Downs the grade W5 million Kentucky Derby three-year-olds going the classic distance of a mile and a quarter let's take a look at this field and before we get to the field drf's got a great giveaway three not one not two three sporty drf hats if you subscribe and comment on The Daily Racing Form YouTube channel on this race give us your pick in the grade one Kentucky Derby and you can be eligible to win one of three sporty drf hats 22 entered the Kentucky Derby Mike and we already have a scratch the number nine and Cino is out that gets the 21 epic ride in um epic rid's going to at least add a little bit of speed to the party yeah I guess they'll come out running from the far outside post now Dan he he starts from stall 20 he did show speed in his dirt debut last time feels like there's enough Pace to go around in this Kentucky Derby that's not that unusual but uh I think he should be part of it anyway so now with the 21 breaking from post 20 the 22 mugatu is on the outside looking in one more scratch and he gets to run on Saturday you mentioned the pace there should be Pace in the Kentucky Derby time form us concurs this pace projector is updated after the scratch we are expecting a fast pace just a touch the pace Setter in the Blu grass he's expected to be up there track Phantom blinkers on he's very very fast fierceness Mike he's pretty quick they don't have him on the lead something tells me that if he breaks well John Velasquez isn't gonna fight him he's GNA have him right up or thereabouts I agree with you he he did get a good draw here mostly outside the other speeds I suppose epic ride maybe complicates it a little bit break can do his outside he doesn't need the lead fierceness he's comfortable sitting off of horses but he's plenty fast too and I'm with you dad I wouldn't be surprised if he breaks running here if Johnny V just goes on with it another horse that's pretty quick drew the inside post position that's the number one door knock the little full brother to Mage who of course won last year's Kentucky Derby now this horce beats Sierra Leon in the remson three starts back might have had the track in his favor that day there were a lot of folks looking forward to his seasonal debut in the fountain of youth that race was really destroyed by scratches and dorok only won in workmanlike fashion in relatively slow time in the Bluegrass they tried to I think teach him something take him in behind horses raid him and he just couldn't finish with Sierra Leon as that one got his revenge breaking from the rail if he breaks they gotta go right I think he they have to try a speed attempt yeah yeah I I can't I listen the Bluegrass it feels like I know that these guys don't use those they're prep races but I know those guys don't use him as preps anymore it feels like gargan used that as a prep to get him in behind horses and see what happens ultimately then he didn't run well with that running style so I gotta believe they want to go back to using his speed here the rail just makes that a much easier call now you gotta break and come out of their running and just see what happens I mean let's be honest about him he he has not improved as a three-year-old so far he's run twice he has not moved forward from what I thought was a pretty interesting two-year-old campaign he seems like he has a lot of talent he just has hasn't put it all together yet and he's got to take the biggest step forward now in the toughest race of his life the number two is Sierra Leon and it seemed like he was destined to be a star from day one a horse that sold for $2.3 million at the prestigious Saratoga yearling sale that was the highest price then he wins his debut in the remson it looked like he was going right by door knock maybe he hung a little bit maybe the track was against him he did seem a little bit Green in his two starts this year for Chad Brown he's worn blinkers and he's finished off his races one in the Risen star and then this race the Bluegrass a race where he did get some Pace he got to the outside not a straw on his path but he kicks him down and it's a likable Lake stretch battle for the win over just a touch yeah it's a really nice finish that he puts in he did get a clean trip in here and he did have a fast pace in front of him but you can just look at the replay now Dan there's nobody else making up ground into this Bas it's only him and he's just going to roll by these horses late another really strong performance another forward move for this horse I personally would argue first of all he's run well in all four of his starts he could easily be undefeated on the way into this Derby and I would I would argue that he's won the two strongest preps on the way into this Derby the Risen star and then that Blu gr I think they were the two best prep races we've had with his running style there probably is going to be several horses in front of him as they head into the first turn it's all about whether this horse can get a trip and pick his way through this big and bulky field Mystic Dan is the number three he's run one of the fastest prep races on the way in that was the Southwest over a wet track two starts back where he got a picture perfect rail skimming ride to win but he looked good doing it and then he came back in the Arkansas Derby Mike and I thought he ran just fine to be third yeah he didn't run poorly in there that that Arkansas Derby's not my favorite prep race Dan and I ultimately just felt like Mystic Dan took a little bit of a step backward in that race I I didn't see some kind of huge excuse for him in there I mean I guess if you want to like him in this race at a big price um that's fair because he does have that really fast win two starts back there's at least some kind of a chance this track could be wet on Saturday and I guess that could make you re-evaluate him as well I'll be honest I I think he's a tough call in this race um whether or not to use him at all at a big price I'm mostly concerned you can tell me if you agree with this or not I'm concerned about the distance I'm not sure that he really wants to go this far I think the distance is a big question mark he's kind of have a MERS pedigree but I do think Brian Hernandez Jr has a plan in mind and breaking from post position three it's to get out of there get ahead of Sierra Leon and maybe try to tuck in behind door knock and work out a similar trip as the Southwest maybe uh it's it's it's the kind of trip that would work out well for him in this race catching freedom is the number four going out for trainer Brad Cox this horse was beaten by Sierra Leon in the Risen star he came right back kicked him down in the Louisiana Derby mic that was a race where it set up for him there was pace and he kicked now he's a true one run closer yeah he's he's going to need a setup just as Sierra Leon is and obviously two starts back he was in against Sierra Leon just got out kicked by him in that race but that was over a wet track he improved last time he did have the setup there he did have a clean trip into it I still thought that he ran well in the Louisiana Derby Dan and I just like the way that he started out his career also I just feel like this horse he really ran well and he got better with every start he wasn't necessarily an easy horse to ride early in his career but he got better in that regard as time has gone on I can see him being ahead of sier Lone when when this field hits the top of the stretch and if he is he's going to make a run in this race he's a he's a little bit interesting in here he's certainly interesting at 8 to1 in the morning line maybe he drifts a little bit you never know the Japanese Invader Forever Young a lot of Buzz about him catalytic is up next the number five only a onetime winner that was a Sprint race in his career debut back last fall he started twice this year he ran okay in his first start a first level allowance Sprint at Tampa Bay and then he was no match for fierceness in the Florida Derby after Chasing that one through out so he really has to step forward yeah listen he's run pretty well in all three of his starts but they're they're asking a lot of this horse here they asked a lot of them last time I feel like they were probably pleased with the race that he ran in the Florida Derby even though he got beat a million lengths by fierceness um so they're just going to press on here and give this horse a shot but he's he's got a lot working against him in this race the great Wayne Lucas will send out the six just Steel battle tested son of Triple Crown winner justify he's run 11 times he's been compromised by some wide trips in some of his preps at oaklan Park this uh winter and into the spring here's his most recent race the Arkansas Derby muthu is not eligible for the Derby wins it here's just Steel on the outside and as always he tries hard and he gets up for second yeah he tried hard in this race he's just not good enough um he will wind up second best in this race though um he's just sort of grinding at the end of this race Dan but there's nothing wrong with the performance I feel like if you want to go back to the southwest and just say listen he was on the outside Mystic Dan the rail seemed like the place to be mtic Dan got gets the inside run and just steel ran better than it looks that's fine his his uh Smarty Jones prior to that I guess was an okay performance but I didn't really see any issues there just wasn't good enough he the real bad trip for him was two back in the rebel he had an impossible trip that day and he was nowhere but I still I can't I'm not betting him off the Arkansas Derby I don't care what kind of price he is and I can't find the other race that gets me interested I have some questions about his distance limitations as well he just hasn't been finishing it up as well talked about that race in the southwest now Mystic Dan did have a much better trip and saved much more ground but he also tused J Steel in the stretch when the real running began we'll see if just steel getting back to Churchill Downs where he is a Stakes Winner can take that slight step forward honor Marie is also a Stakes Winner at Churchill Downs he won the graded Kentucky Jockey Club in his final start at two I think the Risen star was just a good first step for his three-year-old campaign and he seemed to put it together last time out in the Louisiana Derby rallying for second I thought all in all he got a good closer trip in that race the race flow was there for him he was running on at the end now he might need to take just a little bit of a step forward in his third start of the form cycle but I think he's cycling into this race the right way yeah I I won't argue with that it does feel like he's also one of the horses that the the the people who pay attention to workouts are really raving about this horse it seems like he's doing really well right now so I guess you know those are all positives for him I'll be honest Dan I can't say that I like any of his races all that much I know he's a graded Stakes Winner um over this track as a two-year-old but to me he just had a perfect trip that day and kind of took advantage his two races this year they're okay he didn't run as well as catching Freedom did last time though and I feel like he's got to not only make up ground on that horse he's got to make up ground on some other horses as well just a touch is the number eight he did not run as a twoo but neither did his sire justify and that guy ended up winning the Triple Crown he won his career debut and looked really good doing it over a wet track at the fairgrounds but Mike no two wet tracks are the same and I thought he caught a really sticky surface his second time out stretching to a mile in the Gotham and while he was no match for the winner I thought he was very game for second when it looked like he was going to settle for fourth he did a lot of the Dirty Work in the blueg grass pushing a really quick Pace before tiring behind Sierra Leon this guy has got a lot of talent but it's also a big ask in only his fourth lifetime start to stretch out a mile and a quarter against this group yeah those things are all true I mean you mentioned the the comparisons to Major there the other comparison you can make to Mage is mage's final prep last year he got beat by four say who was going to be the favorite and it just sort of felt like maybe M Mage ran the better race when all things were taken into account I mean you could look at that Bluegrass and just say this horse being part of that pace and still holding on for a second maybe he ran every bit as well as Sierra lone did last time I don't know I don't think that's you know out of the realm to look at the race that way they're asking a lot of this horse I think he's super talented and at the end of the day when this season's all sudden and done he might be as good as any of these horses down the line um and I also Dan we looked at that pace brid they him on the lead I don't I don't believe that Brad Cox is going to be sending this hor to the lead this time he seems handy enough to me that they'll try to sit off the pace somewhere and just see if he can get that kind of a trip and if he does get that kind of a trip he could be pretty dangerous in here this horse can run well this horse has a tremendous amount of natural ability and I think he's going to be right in the thick of things when they turn into the stretch the nine and Ceno is scratched that moves everybody in One including our two Japanese interests the number 10 to password a perfect two for two in his career this guy has shown speed in both starts in his career debut he sat second made the lead W in driving fashion last time out got to the front and was all out to win going a mile and an eighth against much weaker horses so he's going to be facing the fastest Pace he's ever faced in his career going against the toughest horses he's ever faced in his career and he only has two lifetime starts yeah there's just a lot working against this horse and not only does he only have two lifetime starts stand but it's hard when you go back and watch that most recent start it's hard to get excited about this I mean he had a pretty soft trip it didn't seem like they were going that fast in there he's loose and let's be honest he was saved by the wire in there one more jump he's beat one more jump he's beat and one more jump he doesn't earn his way into the Derby because by winning that race he got the automatic Japan road to the derby birth Forever Young the number 11 could have stayed in Japan and gotten the easier Road they decided to test him ran him in the Saudi Derby don't think he really cared for that racetrack going a a one turn Mile and he ran down a pretty quick horse last time out in the UAE Derby he got more distance he got two turns he wore a hood for the first time because supposedly he doesn't like Kickback and breaking from the far outside post might have actually helped him because there was no dirt being kicked in his face this was not a very strong field but he did it the right way yeah he did seems seemed like they consciously stayed on the outside um in this race and it works out for him listen he this is another good performance I find it hard to knock him I don't feel like I'm you know have anything interesting really to say about this horse then he's got a pretty um solid fan base behind him and I do feel like there's a chance that he's good enough to be really competitive in this Kentucky Derby he's just not my kind of horse I can really just evaluate him off of the two races the last two starts um you know over overseas and if I'm being honest I wasn't Blown Away by either of those performances I've been fairly impressed by his overall body of work especially his races in Japan where he showed that he seems to be Pace adaptable he can win from just off of the pace and that race to starts back that was a very fast-paced race for a Japanese event and he looked like he was struggling for a little bit dealing with that Kickback but once he got into stride he was able to wear down those horses I don't worry about distance with forever young obviously this is a big class test in the UAE Derby as we know has not been a very good predictor for Kentucky Derby success plus the kickback has to be at least a little bit of an issue breaking now from postp position 10 if he doesn't get in the clear he could be in trouble yeah because trips are of utmost important here not only do you have to worry about that whether it turn out to be true or not that he doesn't like Kickback you have to at least take it into consideration especially if he gets bat in here you also have to be conscious that this horse isn't great from the gate he cannot afford a slow start in here that's an excellent point because in several of his races he is usually just a step slow now he's able to recover and get into the race but that could be a big issue here with these Crush of 20 horses getting set to go uh with a a scrum into the first turn he's got to break well or else he'll be pinched back track Phantom usually breaks well and he's usually usually on the lead as he was in the Louisiana Derby last time out that was a very fast pace he was the only part of the pace hanging around at the end he's getting blinkers for the first time I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's on the lead going into the first turn mic I do have some distance concerns but if somehow this pace doesn't materialize and track Phantom is in control I can see him out running his 20 to one odds I can see that too I I think he's a a pretty talented horse I feel like this Derby there's so much working against him though D I'm with you on the distance part of it um it does feel like as well as he's run all through the prep season it does feel like maybe he hasn't improved as much as some of these other horses have um as the races have gone on and you know listen when you look at those last two races where he couldn't hold on I get that the Louisiana Derby was a closer race but it's not like that pace was super fast and he was sort of in control the race two back when Sierra Leone got him he had everything his own way that day he still couldn't hold on it it feels like this is a really really tough spot for him West Saratoga is up next another horse with prior rated Stakes winning experience at Churchill Downs he won the iroy going a one turn mile late last summer and he's coming into this race off of a solid second in the Jeff Ruby Stakes on the synthetic Turfway where he kind of midm moved into the teeth of the pace mik before being run down by endlessly I thought he ran fine in that race actually I know it was on a different surface but it was you know the longest race of his career I thought he actually ran okay that day it's his other races the dirt races that don't really do a lot for me I respect the fact that his two wins last that he did it like different ways he was on the lead breaking his Ma and then he closes into a really fast base to win the iroy over this track I mean those are positives I guess but where's the One race that he's run that gives him any kind of a chance of year the 14 is endlessly and he's one of the big question marks in this race because it will be his first start on dirt he's run on Turf he's run on synthetic and he's run very well on both of those surfaces in the El Camino ra Derby at Golden Gate he blew by the field from the back of the pack and he looked like a winner every step from the back of the pack and the Jeff Ruby especially considering the pace he received he'll get Pace in here the question is will he handle the dirt he's got a turfy pedigree his races are really good it just doesn't feel like he's a dirt horse and I think the the biggest part of that Dan is it doesn't even feel like his trainer thinks he's a dirt horse and it seems like Mike McCarthy didn't really want to run him in this race and it's the owner's call and they're going to take a shot here I think that those are all bad signs this horse is really talented I'm not betting him in his dirt debut in the Kentucky dby Sierra Leon's getting all the attention for the Chad Brown outfit but Chad also has the 15 domestic product and aside from running a couple of slow races in his two preps this year he really hasn't done much wrong it was a slow paced race in the Holy Bull he got to the outside and who did he outf finish for second fierceness he then came back in this race the Tampa Bay Derby another just woefully slow pace and here's domestic product in behind horses he has to really find something as they're sprinting for home and he does getting up to beat a couple of minor next out winners I think this horse is a little bit better than he looks on paper Mike no I agree with that I I mean I do think it's only fair to point out that fierceness was stopping in that Holy bll there when this horse got by him for second um but this is a good performance I mean that was a super slow pace he had to for Force his way out into the clear through the stretch he did have a good finish in there um and so I just feel like for those reasons the last two star you don't want to put too much stock into speed figures just because you can't get fast figures when you're trying to close into slow Paces it just doesn't really happened is he better than he looks on paper yes is he worth throwing in there somewhere at some kind of really big price I think yes I will just point out I think the one drawback that I haven't seen mentioned too much with this horse is the slow Paces might have actually helped him in his last two starts he kept up close he had a big finish to get the job that it's not like he had a ton of ground to make up he's been in exactly one race so far in his career since I stretched him out that had a really fast pace the remson and he was totally empty through the as he sat in behind there so that was a wet track too so that could have something to do with it but the one time he had to deal with a fast pace he was nowhere number 16 is Grand Mo the first we just saw him in that uh multi-or photo finish in the Tampa Bay Derby he was third he was wide for most of the way I thought he ran well they tested him in the Florida Derby last time out and he was no match for fierceless he got beat 16 length so he's got to find a lot more yeah he's just another horse that when you just sort of take apart his form you see why he's 50 to one on the morning line there's not one race you can point to that suggests he's going to be even close to competitive in here Dan he's got to take a somehow find a way to take a huge forward stop here's the horse to beat the 17 fierceness last year's two-year-old champion after winning the Breeders Cup juvenile kind of a Jaelin hide year that one performance in the champagne certainly wasn't very good and then in the Holy Bull we were expecting great things he didn't break very well he chased outside a slow pace and he was flat we needed to see the real fierceness show up maybe he did in this race the Florida Derby where it was an outclassed field but fierceness just destroyed them winning by double digit lengths with a 110 buyer speed figure yeah winning like this and then earning that kind of a figure sort of softens the blow um when you sort of go through the the PPS of the horses that are behind him you realize that he's just beating a terrible field of horses but to do it like that is exactly what you wanted to see I thought he had a legit excuse in the champagne dance I that's not the kind of race that I really care about the Holy Bulls a little bit tougher to sort of just sweep aside and say well he had some kind of he did have trouble early in that race sort of got bumped around after that I thought he was in a perfectly good spot to me the more I think about the Holy bll the more I feel like he does might have been a short horse that day and I hate to say that maybe Pletcher just didn't have you know Pletcher didn't have him 100% there because he was in the mix to midst stretch he just got really tired at the end of the race I love the way that he bounced back last time he's the most talented horse in this race if he gets the right trip he's supposed supposed to be really tough that's the key he's got to get the right TR first he's got to get out of the gate again he's has that situation with forever young where sometimes it's a bit of a Stutter Step start for him and then he gets pinched and then things happen to him is he the kind of horse if this pace is fast and there are two or three horses in front of him that he can chase that fast pace and still finish that's the big question exactly let's take a look at the 18 stronghold very underrated coming in from Southern California for Phil deato his horse has done nothing wrong he's never been out of the ex active from six starts he looked pretty good winning the santanita Derby I Lov this ride I liked how this trip worked out but he still had to squeeze his way through in between horses and got it done he's now paired up Byer tops in his last few races but he's also yet to reach the 90 buer Plateau so he's got to show a lot more Improvement in that regard yeah that this is a that's a big drawback for this horse this isn't vintage San in a derby stuff you always you usually really respect the San Anita Derby winner when they come to the Kentucky Derby it's probably not the case here it's not a really strong field but did get the job done after a perfect trip they sort of took the easier route before that and ran him at Sunland Park and he just won that race pretty handily I don't know Dan I I kind of like everything he's done I really hate the the low Sal fut charity last year that's the one race of his that I don't like everything else that he's done I really like it I just wonder if if he's not quite good enough at this point to win a race like the Derby another horse coming into the Derby off paired Byer tops is the 19 resilience he is ear 90 buyer speed figures in his last two for the great bill M I think his risen star is a lot better than it looks because he was on a hard Chase going after a fast horse and track Phantom and then he got a little bit tired M put blinkers on for the Wood Memorial this horse has wonderful tactical speed let's watch the wood he sat just off of the pace he gets produced he makes the lead and once he gets to the front mic he's just drawing off with confidence yeah I I like this performance for him I know that the wood it's not a super strong field the horse that that's going to run second to him we'll talk about next is over a 100 one but and this horse he got a perfect trip the two favorites didn't fire at all in here so all those things sort of you can look at it that way and say who cares man he only ran another 90 buyer speed figure and he did you know he didn't really improve and he beat a bad field I look at it different I think he really moved forward with the blinkers on he got a great trip he won easy the Risen star you've already mentioned all the good things he did in there it was also right off of a maiden win this is a horse who just he gotten better every time M sent him out there he gets better he gets better he gets better I think he got I think he improved again last time I wonder if there's one more forward move in him he'll get the distance I I I think you make great points because he's a late bloomer who might just be peing at absolutely the right time many of these Derby horses and Marcus hch mentioned it in his feature on Bill M and resilience in the daily racing forum on Tuesday many of these horses have just been brilliant from the start and they've kept it up resilience has improved slowly with each and every start and M wouldn't be here unless he'd be brimming at least with confidence that the horse would make a good show for himself resilience at a big price Junior Alvarado Bill M of course had tremendous success last year with Cody's wish just FYI Etc Society man is the number 20 he is the second entrant in here trained by Danny gargan of course he's got the number one in dorno second in the race we just saw behind resilience Mike this is another horse that seems to be improving but he's going to have to take another step forward I mean getting beat by resilience is fine he's only one start removed from a maiden win that was with Lasix on over a muddy track yeah true enough the track could come up wet I guess on Saturday so you know that this horse can handle it he also when he broke his Maiden really fast pace in front of him and he came with a really strong finish to win that race going away I like that about him his Wood Memorial was fine Dan he got a great trip in that race he did his best with it I thought he ran really well in there despite being a huge price for some reason I mean I'm not gonna sit here and say that I love him in the derby am I gonna be shocked when he's you know fifth or sixth in this race I'm not uh thanks to the scratch of enino the 21 epic ride is now in the Kentucky Derby breaking from post position 20 he is a Stakes Winner on the all weather at Turfway Park we saw him on dirt in the Bluegrass he was up close to a fast pace he ran okay to be third but just a touch was also up close to that fast pace and just a touch outf finished epic ride epic ride is a horse that I have some concerns about this distance and he has to prove he classes up agree I I'm I'm really worried about the distance for him I have no real problem with the race that he ran in the Blu grass last time he did his best the pace was fast he was close to it he he hung around fairly well at the end he's still hard to like in this race and if we get one more scratch Mugu gets into this race the number 22 and mugatu ran fifth in the Bluegrass last time out it was a non-threatening performance uh we've seen some big shocks in the Derby this would be a big one it would be a big one he did move forward in the Bluegrass last time back on dirt but he didn't to me anyway he didn't run that well with a really good setup his other two dirt races just aren't good enough top pick time for the Kentucky Derby Mike I like where you're going you're going with the price you're going with the great billmont resilience seems to be getting better and better and better yeah this isn't a derby Den where I'm like you know way against the favorites in here I actually feel like with with Sierra Leon and fierceness I feel like you're kind of On Solid Ground I I know that those two horses do have questions to answer but I think there's a way to look at this race and to say they're the two best horses man and they have diverse running Styles too so you get one up close you get one from the back I'm not way against them but I'm really taken with resilience I like the way he's developing I think he this horse is he's never been than he is right now and they're going to take their shot at the Derby at a price I'm with him you will be getting a price to be sure on a sharp horse I usually don't love playing closers in big bulky fields and Sierra Leon acts like a horse that's probably going to have to come from out of it I just love the agility we've seen in this last two races where he's moved from inside to outside and he's done it very very quickly kniv his way through in between horses he'll have to maybe utilize that I think it'll work well for him in here fierceness is the horse to beat we'll see uh if he sort of gets the trip that he needs I wonder if track Phantom can do a little bit better with the blinkers they do have some concerns obviously with the distance as well as the pace scenario but if the pace doesn't materialize I think he's a little bit better than he looks on paper I've always believed in Fr Young's natural ability 1917 28 for Mike 2 17 12 11 for me it's the Kentucky Derby the drf race of the day on Saturday remember three free hats are available all you have to do to win one of them uh and at least enter for a chance to win one of them is subscribe and comment on The Daily Racing Form YouTube Channel Good Luck

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Length: 27min 32sec (1652 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 30 2024