Doug Casey: the west is in major decline, what you can do about it

foreign [Music] welcome back ladies and gentlemen My Name is Kerry Stevenson I'm delighted a couple of months ago I bought you Doug Casey and I've reached out and said Doug there's so much to talk about the world is moving on its axis in ways that we never thought possible Doug is the founder of international man.com he's written a number of books if you haven't read them please just type in Doug Casey books and the trilogy that he wrote what was it it was drug lord assassin and what was the third one well actually the first one Speculator Speculator that starts out with a bush war in Africa and then we wrap it up from there and uh John Hunt and I are working on the fourth in the Charles Knight series called uh terrorists and I'm afraid that uh events in the world are almost outpacing our science fiction but terrorists will be quite interesting I have a lot of contrary views on terrorism which is a method of warfare okay so there you have it ladies and gentlemen when when will that one be out don't terrorism oh goodness I'd like to say six months but I'm always as those have listened to our broadcast in the past now I'm always way too optimistic sometimes you're way too obviously so look just before we get started I would urge you to read the the trilogy that's out now all about Charles Knight and his um his adventures it would really open your eyes in such a way that has opened my eyes Doug great to see you back here again uh you've said recently we're coming into the 11th Hour what do you mean by that well the governments of the west but most importantly the U.S have been living on debt for for decades and the problem with debt is that some people owe it to some other people and when you have savings that's the result of producing more than you consume and setting aside the difference that's savings well debt is the mirror image the opposite of savings and it's like if I borrowed a million dollars tomorrow morning I could live very high off the hog for the next year or two wild and crazy but then because I've been living above my means because of debt which which explains the stock market boom and the bond market boom and so many things uh when the time when the time comes to pay it back you suffer a very real decline in your standard of living not only what you've consumed that you don't have but interest on that as well so that's where we are right now and uh it's come to an end game uh where these governments have printed up trillions trillions of new currency units to keep the game going for the last few years which has resulted in very high levels of inflation here in the U.S I would say that we're running well over 15 percent actual inflation I don't really trust the government's figures much more than I trust those in the Argentine government uh they've done that and they've reduced interest rates I thought it was metaphysically impossible for interest rates to go below zero but the Europeans have done that the Europeans are even more stupid and dangerous than the US and uh of course that means that anybody that's saving that's trying to improve themselves by saving uh is being penalized by a real 10 to 15 per year this is uh this is the way you destroy an actual civilization and we're in process of doing that in many ways right now it's very scary actually uh you you speak about inflation and that destroying people's wealth but you just said in many ways what are the other ways that they're looking to destroy wealth and why are they looking to destroy wealth apps well one major way is the uh is is the acceptance of collectivist principles uh socialism Marxism uh keynesianism uh all of these various isms that direct more power to the state and to central banks uh over the years uh this is very very destructive of uh wokism which is everywhere in the Securities markets all big corporations now you've basically rolled over supporting the nonsense of ESG environmental societal governance it's all it's all crazy crazy stuff along with the other thing die diversity inclusion and Equity this stuff all ought to be flushed down the toilet because it's all destructive nonsense uh the war against uh energy for instance the fact that the same group of idiots were the same uh the same destructive ideas are are trying to eliminate fossil fuels fossil fuels are uh oil gas coal and nuclear we're trying to eliminate those and replace them with windmills and uh and solar there's nothing wrong with windmills and solar in certain applications where the other things don't work but you can't run an industrial civilization excuse me you can't run an industrial civilization on basically children's toys so that um this is going to end very very badly what do you mean on on children's toys are you talking about windmills and solar panels well windmills these are giant versions of those little pinwheels that we used to have when when we were kids and solar power is like a giant version uh of the magnifying glasses that you used to use to chase ants around an anthill I mean these things are fine and the technology has evolved over the last 30 years they've both gotten cheaper they've both gotten better but they're both still on economic they're really useful for specific select purposes in certain places that are amenable to them but not for running an industrial civilization which is centered around cities so they're they're fine but like everything else in today's world they've been politicized and what people use for energy should be based upon the economics of something not about the wokeness and the politics of something and this whole thing with green energy has become an out of control Mania that's adding to the bankruptcy of the West they're not doing this kind of nonsense in in the orient incidentally oh yeah that's a really good point uh and on that note uh I read recently Doug that um in the whole of civilization up to 2020 we've mined 700 million tons of copper but if we want this sort of Green Revolution that everyone's saying is going to be so easy to do we need another 700 million so what we've been what we've mined over the total um Civil Right Time of civilization we need in the next 20 years it's like they haven't thought this through no they haven't uh and they haven't thought through the fact that uh everything degenerates over time including windmills and solar panels and everything they built is going to have to be replaced and a lot of the material that's been put into these things uh cannot be recovered and it's not just copper we're talking about Cobalt and uh silver and Vanadium and all kinds of uh uh nickel all kinds of metals that are going to have to be mined and the same worksters that love green power hate mining because it seems like it's raping mother earth it's a it's a dichotomy isn't it because it's like they do turn around they say no mining has to stop because we're going green you can't go green without mining no and the problem is you these people don't really love mother earth at least not so much as they hate humans hate other people and uh I I've been forced to the conclusion but well they've said this uh if the world economic forum about the world's population should be reduced rather radically and uh the things that they're doing which are making it much harder and much more expensive to uh grow food for instance um well that's not going to affect you and I so much even though they'd like us to be eating bugs but it is going to affect the poor people of the world who aren't going to be able to afford the wheat and the rice and the corn that they've been living on one reason for that is because of this uh War uh in the Ukraine uh fertilizer is because it has been gone way way up in front price and is much much less available well all the main fertilizers the nitrogen fertilizers phosphorus phosphorus potassium they're all much more expensive and much less available because of that war uh which incidentally is completely unnecessary I I guess what I'm saying is this is that uh people that I want to classify as the bad guys have taken over control of almost all the world's governments certainly here in the United States where we have actual Jacobins that control the instrument of the State uh in Washington DC these people are really wild and crazy and they want to overthrow Society the same people as psychological and their political beliefs they're identical to the Jacobins in France in 1793 who brought out The Guillotines and killed 35 000 Frenchmen which was a lot at that time for any time for that matter uh they're the same people uh typewise as we're in back of Mao's great cultural revolution that killed tens of millions of people in the 60s they're the same people that uh where the Bolsheviks in in Russia in 1917 this is actually very serious because um listen it's not like what's happening in Australia or New Zealand or Canada or Britain you know all these countries have serious serious philosophical and psychological and economic problems political problems but uh most serious in the U.S and if the U.S goes there's really no place to run anymore because us is the biggest and and uh it was unique although now it's turned into just another of 200 nation states that cover the face of the globe like a skin disease uh Doug you say that the U.S is is worse than others but the US dollar is going from strength to strength uh people seem to think that that's the only currency in the world what what do you think is they're going to happen with the US dollar well it's a paradox in that the US dollar is losing value against Real goods and services at 10 to 15 per year for the moment and I think it's going to go up inflation is going to get much worse because they're creating money uh by the ton for all kinds of reasons in the United States so oddly at the same time as the dollar is losing value at 10 to 15 percent it's going up against other currencies which are actually worse so uh I think the key is to get out of currencies which are all currencies are just the unsecured liabilities of governments governments are innately untrustworthy and almost all of them in the world are bankrupt at this point well the US government's bankrupt it's it's disclosed debt is what is it a 32 trillion dollars now uh which is actually impossible to pay back impossible and when interest rates go back up to levels that they have to go up to something greater than the level of inflation anyway uh it it literally won't be able to be done it's game over and the government will have to do something really radical well speaking about I want to talk about two things there you just said people should get out of currencies if they get out of currencies how do they live day to day well right now we need currencies to live day to day so I'm not saying you know close out your bank account and and try to barter with your neighbors but I will say this I will say this that if you have extra currency above what you need for you know your daily uh dollar expenses and victuals you should be buying gold and silver coins and sequestering them pretend you're a squirrel with nuts uh because right now I think gold is reasonable value ah not too expensive not too cheap it's kind of where I think it should be and I've said this for several years I think silver is an excellent speculative vehicle right now my life silver is a speculation so that's what they should be doing and now is an excellent time to uh accumulate the shares of uh gold and silver and uranium mining companies and of course um most of these little mining companies are are basically crap I mean they really they really are most of them have no right to be public but um still at some point the worm is going to turn and the public will go into these things as a in a speculative Mania at least it's happened so many times in the last 50 years I don't think that'll stop now so I'm accumulating uh uh junior mining companies explorers yes developers more yes and uh producers so most of all because I'll move first producers will move first I'll tell you what moved yesterday on September the 14th 2022 I'm putting the date in there because people might watch this sometime down the track the share market here in Australia and I guess uh the Dow also here in Australia though we shed 60 billion dollars in approximately 10 minutes is what I'd like to know is what's your view on the share market you just talked about gold equities and and uranium equities what way is this Market going to go and it is is certain sectors of the market what you're looking at saying you know this is the sector to go in because even if the market does go down by 60 billion you may have a sort of a motor around your sector right well same thing happened here in the US of course at a much brander scale because we have uh 10 times the population of Australia so multiply everything by 10 more or less um how cheap can the market get and is the market going to get cheaper the last time there was a real Market bottom a secular Market bottom was in the early 1980s when interest rates were 15 to 20 percent that's what they were back in the early 80s 15 to 20 percent and the stock market reflected that fact dividend yields uh across the board in the stock market of stocks that paid dividends probably eight nine percent utility stocks were paying 15 in current dividends back then yes well I got a better one for you most people are just completely unaware of this but uh back in the mid 1980s uh three markets that I watched at that time Hong Kong Spain and Belgium all three were yielding in their major averages 15 in dividends uh selling it three four times earnings and half of Book value that's how cheap stocks can get now since then uh all of the governments of the world have been creating giant amounts of debt um giant amounts of currency and that has flowed into the stock and bond markets so we've had a 40-year bull market it's actually just recently it was not just a bubble it was a hyper bubble my guess is the next stop with the greater depression which is what we're facing at this point uh and I've said this before but let me repeat it it's going to be much worse and much different and much longer lasting than the unpleasantness of 1929 to 1946 wow I think we're looking at much lower Equity values over time I mean the government's going to keep up printling Gap currency and try to maintain uh the levels of the markets the last thing they need is a financial meltdown on catastrophe in addition to all the other things that are going on in the world today but still we're in a secular bear Market I think and it's going to last my guess is five to ten years so uh I have no interest in most stocks and I'm even cautious about uh Mining and energy stocks because there are also stocks uh even though they're going to be in areas that the companies that produce them are going to be doing well so you said you said that you quite you think gold Equity you know the gold in the uranium areas will be good Equity wise but then in the same you're saying but but stay away from them so I'm a bit confused okay well they're cheap right now uh for a couple of reasons but a very big reason is the ESG thing that um the big money managers and the funds mutual funds and the big Banks and uh the big money uh are all staying away from these things because they're not deemed as being ESG die friendly uh give you an idea back in 1980 the S P 500 30 of its composition was energy stocks oil oil services things of that nature 1980 that was the peak of the oil boom now uh they've doubled in the last year approximately but from a level where they've gone down to three percent I mean it's been very bad for them they're very cheap at this point look One stock that I've been in for some time is petrobras that's the national Oil Company in Brazil yeah selling it four times earnings and last year paid a 25 dividend I mean so but people aren't aware of that because their Brokers are directing them away from energy producers they say no no the future is going to be green and you know oil and coal and uranium these are dead Ducks so stay away from them well that's exactly the opposite of the truth so um that's why they're so cheap because the the public has been scared away and and the big guys are brainwashed by this ESG die Mania so that's what I'm buying right now those things so you know look is Richard Russell said I don't know if many of your viewers know who he was but but he said that during a depression uh everybody loses the winner is just the person that loses the least so in a depression I Define it forget about this two quarters of lower GNP forget about that but depression is a period of time when most people's standard of living drops significantly and that's what's going to be going on for the next 10 years and you're going to see it with this cold winter in Europe and a starving time in the third world where people can't afford to have food in poor countries so it's just starting and the natives will get restless and I don't know what we're going to see in a way of riots and Bank runs and God knows what else I tend to agree with you um you're speaking about inflation and one of the things you said in the past is that inflation is the worst kind of tax but Biden your your president over there has talked about an inflation reduction act what's that all about don't oh this is this is absolutely horrible I don't know how much you guys have heard about this uh down under but it's a spending program of um about 400 billion dollars it's a lot of money because uh World War II costs the United States about 270 billion dollars put it in proportion even though the dollar is not worth what it was in World War II so a lot of money and what are they going to do why why how can they spend 400 billion dollars mostly to fight global warming which is basically a a sham and a hoax but most of that 400 billion dollars is going to be directed to fight Louisville warming um but how can it be inflation reduction if you're gonna literally have to print up because you can't tax that's there's already a trillion dollar deficit they can't tax another 400 billion for that so how could it be inflation reduction when they're spending an extra 400 billion dollars well it's because that 400 billion dollars is going to go in the top of the funnel towards politically favored areas in global warming and this type of nonsense and they're planning on taking it out the bottom of the funnel in taxes actually from politically disfavored classes and industries so they create 400 billion spend it and they pull it out from people that they don't like basically at the bottom it's called modern monetary Theory and what it means is the government gets much much more control over the economy it's keynesianism the worst aspects of candies into them on steroids so that's what's what that's all about but it's worse than that here in the United States because I don't think most Aussies and Kiwis know what Biden did on September 1st but I'll send you a link to that okay people have to watch this he gave a speech I should say it's a rant actually uh in Philadelphia uh in front of Constitution Hall which is the founding place of the United States Philadelphia that's what all began actually and it was a black background essentially very dark with dark with red highlights so here we have this is like this is like that scene out of V for Vendetta or from 84 where Biden is giving this rant which it rehearsed uh many times obviously because he didn't stumble all over himself as he usually does he's got this terrifying background with two U.S Marines uh kind of showing his power this is unprecedented in American history that he would give such a speech in such a place with such a actually terrifying background and what was the speech about it was almost all it was basically a declaration of Civil War where he said and you can listen to it yourself that roughly the half of the country that voted Republican that voted for Trump are uh uh what a crazy uh dangerous lunatic um uh trying to overthrow the essence he went on and on and this was actually terrifying because this guy and and the uh people in back of them have control of the apparatus of the state and it's about the same time that they had this raid on Trump's house in Florida and shortly thereafter uh about 50 well-known Republicans Trump supporters of course were rounded up um Dawn raids and perp walked in handcuffs for nothing uh and this is on top of the fact that the so-called Insurrection on January 6th of of 20. I mean this was nothing but a crowd that got over enthusiastic uh unarmed did no damage were invited into the capitol where polite didn't destroy anything and there are still people uh many of them that are in jail and being held without habeas corpus I don't know how long they're going to be this this is all unprecedented in the U.S and really really scary why do you think on September the 1st he gave that speech why did he pick September the 1st I don't know if there's any particular significance to that day but the nature of the speech which is terrifying actually and the visuals around the speech uh it amounted to a declaration of Civil War on the part of these people I mean as I said I didn't say these people were Jacobins uh just to sound inflammatory they really are they're a Reincarnation of those people it's not a I I know you're you're speaking to me today from Virginia uh but you also have a place in Uruguay does it make you feel like it's to get out of Dodge I guess I feel a lot more comfortable these days in in Uruguay which is politically very neutral uh and they don't care about me anyway I mean you know I'm a I'm a gringo I I support some local workers they don't care what I think or say they don't understand it because I speak English and I speak Spanish but terrible Spanish quite frankly so yeah I feel a lot better there because at this point since they started their phony war on terror uh after the 9-1-1 event 20 years ago um uh you've got to be careful increasingly of who you talk to and what you say because people have have this meme about see something say something in their minds and Biden's speech was essentially a declaration of war uh followed up by these minister of Homeland Security what the hell is that guy's name I'll send you a link to that too where he's saying that yes we used to look out for Muslim terrorists and then we abroad and then we looked out for foreign terrorists in the U.S now we're looking out for American terrorists that have been infected with you know anti-government ideas or pro-freedom ideas actually wow that is frightening oh it is so the answer to your question is is I really enjoy being in the U.S it's got so many advantages but um this is one of those times as I said before that's happened in different countries from time to time and if you're a German in 1933 uh and you saw what happened that year what are you going to do well it turns out that a smart German would have gotten out of Dodge okay if you were a Cambodian in 1975 hmm you should have gotten out of Cambodia and uh And So It Goes if you were trying if you were Chinese after Mao took over hmm Should I stick around in China or go someplace else well we know what the answer is now and I'm afraid that the U.S has turned a coroner and that speech that Biden gave gave us it was an announcement of what's going on it was a declarations by the sound of it oh I I think it was but everybody should listen to it for themselves and and decide if I'm if I'm being um uh inflammatory emphasizing this or not I don't think so okay well I'll I'll make sure I get the link I'll put it down in the commentary below I'll ask Philip to do that um one of the things I just I just want to focus back in on um growing and protecting wealth if you like doug because one of the things last time we spoke you said let me tell you if you've got bonds I would sell them tomorrow morning is that you're still your buns I believe I was correct to have said that done because the uh I remained short Bonds on the Futures market and they're lower now than they were then and when we talked the next time I trust there will be a next time uh I suspect it'll be lower once again interest rates over the long term uh are headed back up to the 50 to 20 percent level that we saw in the early 1980s so yes if you have bonds sell them yesterday if you can and uh you know I'll be very very selective on your stocks I mean the time will come again which I look forward to to buying common industrial stocks but probably when that happens we're going to see average dividend yields of six eight ten percent or more uh I mean look give you another example from history that most people are completely unaware of this is where I made my well yeah it was just about my first hit in the market uh in 1976 they were in South Africa there were riots in Soweto and gold had gone from 200 which has had you know it went from 35 to to what 200 and 1973. back to a hundred dollars in 1976. riding in Soweto gold fell in half uh South African gold mines of the short life long life one uh short high cost short life mines names that nobody will remember like rude flies still Fontaine Leslie Bracken those stocks had current dividend yields of 50 to 70 percent current dividend yields at that point in 1976 and as gold went to 800 from 76 to 80. those dividends doubled and redoubled and doubled again and the stocks just the stocks exploded and that was the one time in my life I bought something dead flat at the bottom I could tell you how it happened but you know it's you know it was an accident I just got lucky and it wasn't for a lot of money but it was all the money I had so uh well are you suggesting that that may happen again not maybe not so explosive but I I'm just I'm just saying that things can get cheaper than you could imagine and then they can get more expensive than you can imagine and people will recall uh the internet bubble back in 2000 and then the more recent bubble uh where all these meme stocks you know the earnings aren't even considered uh they're worth multiples multiple billions of dollars and they have multiple billions of losses with no Prospect of ever turning around so how expensive can something get well it wasn't just a bubble it was a hyper bubble so uh they can get cheaper than you can imagine they're more expensive than you can imagine and right now I think gold is reasonably priced but it's going up it's definitely going up I mean the next step is up not down more so for silver definitely for Uranium same thing at 50 or whatever it is right now it's at or below depending on which mine we're looking at and how you account uh cost of production and I think the world will turn back to nuclear power because there's no other reasonable alternative at this point uh and I think oil is going to stay at these levels and go higher and natural gas definitely and those poor Europeans they're going to have a a cold winter I don't see how they can turn this thing around in time and the war in the Ukraine uh it's it's really a Pity I mean we shouldn't even have to care about it other than just saying oh that's too bad but here we have two countries which is what Russia and Ukraine are having a border war and this Border Wars have gone on in the Ukraine and they're about for a thousand years that's why they call it the Ukraine that means Borderland and that's where the country comes from uh its name has been changed from the Ukraine to Ukraine to kind of legitimize the place but uh you know let these people have it out but instead the US is poured 60 70 billion dollars who knows uh into into this black hole where half the weapons are going out to fight the Russians and be destroyed and the other half have disappeared tens of thousands of people have been killed and it started out with Putin wanting after a huge provocation it was usually provoked actually with NATO and Revolution and so forth just to re regain Crimea for Russia which is for the last 300 years has always been Russian and to uh stop the fighting of the ukrainians against those two Breakaway provinces who declared independence incidentally nobody's aware of this in the West in 2014 they seceded from the Ukraine and they've been fighting a war against the ukrainians since 2014. so we just wanted to solve those two problems that's why he didn't call it a war that's why I call it a special military operation but it's gotten out of control and uh at this point uh while the US government is bankrupting itself uh with you know it's all borrowed money if they're using to fight this war I don't know what's going to happen with it I just I just hope that you know that idiot zielinski you know packs up and says sorry we're going home keep the keep Crimea and we're not going to fight a war against the dombast anymore and I kind of live and let will he do that no probably not no no because he's got the backing of the US and many other countries and of course as a former actor it it it it's good for him to be on the stage oh yeah absolutely and and and the average Muppet out there automatically assumes that the Russians are you know the evil bad guys I mean look there's no good guys in in World politics they're all bad guys but in this case uh the ukrainians are I feel very badly for the Ukrainian people who are basically being held hostage by a an idiot government but uh it's uh it's a Pity do you think this is one of these wars that is just going to keep going on and on and on and on and on well well actually we don't know what's actually happening on the front because it's Russian propaganda to say one thing and Ukrainian and American and Western propaganda let's say the other thing I mean it's long been said that in in war truth is the first casualty so we don't really know what's going on right now seems like I have lots of Shadows coming in people are going to say here in the shadow he's out of the Shadow what it is it's sunset here on the so the sun because the way the window is formed I'm just kidding anyway you know what we'll do we'll wrap it up for now I'm going to bring you back on if that's okay I love having a a chat with you because you bring so much sensibility to a nonsensical world uh but let's wrap it up from what I hear um in this conversation Doug you're saying be a bit of a contrarian uh well all the people are saying we're going to turn green uh the opportunity lies in oil gas the precious metals and uranium and potentially coal as well exactly that's that and natural gas natural gas of course because uh in the U.S natural gas right now is about nine dollars per mcf but the Europeans are paying I don't know what they're paying 50. uh So eventually uh for a number of reasons liquefication and so forth although that's very expensive uh World prices tend to normalize and uh as long as this uh brouhaha in the Ukraine goes on national gas prices are not going to come down uh at least not much so yeah I like natural gas even though it's historically expensive by U.S standards but only by U.S standards and ladies and gentlemen go and check out petrobrass because Doug likes that one as well Doug thanks so much for your time I'll let you go so that you don't get Blinded By the Light uh if they're in Virginia and next time we chat in a couple of months time who knows what uh what the future will hold but I really appreciate your views thanks Carrie it could be a totally different world once again when I next to you thanks so much for joining me today thanks

Channel: Small Caps

Views: 176,636

Keywords: Doug Casey, investing, money, inflation, recession, gold, silver, uranium, mining, economy

Id: 7KH8D2e1fq4

Length: 42min 6sec (2526 seconds)

Published: Fri Sep 16 2022