Disturbance Moves into the Caribbean...

thank you for joining me on this Tuesday I'm meteorologist Brian Shields I want to break down this strong tropical wave that's headed in the forecast we've been talking about together on this weather Community it's all holding true and I'll be able to fine tune it a little bit better again we're not seeing a name system or anything like that coming in this is not organizing now into a hurricane or a tropical storm I like to pass along some good news with it it is going to bring some isolated flooding but it's also helping to bring some much much needed rain to some spots my friends in Montserrat Saint Kitts and Nevis for example we've had some rain and storms around we had some rain in parts of Trinidad earlier so again we are getting some rain where we need to get some of the rain so watching that you can see some of the reindeer near Antigua Barbuda near Anguilla and it's only going to increase but on the flip side I'm keeping a very close eye on this flood potential so again little flare up here we've got this tropical wave moving in behind it again on the back side of it that's where we have some of the heaviest rain there's another tropical wave that's sliding by the Cayman Islands we had a little bit of rain in some spots overnight and early this morning so we've got one here but this is the bigger one and a little extra moisture here near the Dominican Republic Puerto Rico U.S and British Virgin Islands even some rain possible near Saint Martin seba station Saint Bart's possibility of getting some of the shower so I'm going to break it down I want to get Island by Island for you a little bit more specific in what's going on and then we'll take a look at Jamaica and Belize big picture Gulf of Mexico quiet but as this tropical wave Works in across the Caribbean we're going to see that chance of rain getting higher for Jamaica down the road for Central America as we get down the road so a lot of activity see some severe weather again back toward the United States Bermuda we're looking a little bit better and again it's one tropical wave after another and as expect expected early in the month a little quieter the end of this month it is going to be more active and we're starting to see some signs of that not quite there yet immediate concern again this strong tropical wave we can see upwards of four inches of rain or 100 millimeters of rain and spots some of us could handle that some of us can if we have the higher terrain that's more of an issue with the runoff because yeah you get the rain and maybe you can handle it initially and then it kind of runs off into the same area and you see the quick rises in some of the river so generally Dominica South through Trinidad and Tobago that's where we have the best chance of getting some of the flooding so that'll be my concern over the next couple of days and I'm going to break down the rain totals I want to show you specifically in one second let me show it to you coming in though so I want to get into the forecast show you what's next here we go there's that blob of rain let me take you out in time today again watching some scattered showers and storms today we already have a few around this is by the time we get into tomorrow still as you get back toward near the Turks and Caicos Haiti Dominican Republic the rain but you see it working in Dominica uh Martinique St Lucia Barbados the high chance of rain Barbados we're going to get it first Trinidad and Tobago Grenada Grenada St Vincent the Grenadine Grenadines Northern Venezuela and Guyana some rain and then look at this blob of rain as we get into Thursday and that's why I mentioned we have that chance of some flooding because we're going to have more of a longer duration rain event maybe catch some rain catch a break get more rain moving in and you see it right there and that's the concern I've been watching some of us yeah we need to get the rain others though it's going to be a little bit too much too quickly so watching the rain now as the tropical wave moves by it starts to work into the central Caribbean still on the back side of it we pull in some moisture so Trinidad for example on Friday still watching scattered showers all right looking ahead by the time we get into Friday though as the tropical wave moves across better chance of rain Jamaica and Haiti and even a chance of rain across the ABC islands not a ton but at least the rain chance goes up we will take it then going out in time into Saturday the strong tropical wave starts to move closer to the Cayman Islands Jamaica we still have that chance of rain and still that flow bringing scattered showers to the Eastern Caribbean so it's going to get more active this is a stronger tropical way moving in as it moves across it kind of opens up the door for more and more moisture to move in and then I'll be watching those other tropical waves back behind it and then that rain chance increasing late Saturday into Sunday as we work our way into the Yucatan Belize as we work our way into the uh our friends across the islands in between Honduras and uh as we get into Jamaica so again a lot of action that we'll be working in all right let's get a look at the rainfall as far as the amounts now this is a computer model it's not going to be exact so for example you see this kind of brighter shading right here across Trinidad well maybe it'll be over here over across the open Waters maybe a little bit down to the South but it shows you kind of the available moisture with this these brighter colors correspond to 75 millimeters or 100 millimeters of rain so anywhere from about three to four inches of rain will be a potential we have the flooding a couple of weeks ago in parts of Trinidad it was significant flooding so again I'm watching this very closely across Trinidad and Tobago look at the white shading here and again the white may be here maybe it'll be a little bit more down here but the point being there's white on this map which is showing that some spots for a three day total and again this is really late tomorrow into Thursday some spots will get 100 millimeters of rain even upwards of 125 millimeters of rain that would be about four to five inches of some rain so St Lucia Barbados St Vincent of the Grenadines Grenada not only isolated flooding but I'll be watching out for the possibility of some mudslides landslides in some spots with this tropical wave moving in now as we swing from Dominica to the north not as much Martinique we could get some heavy rain Dominique I should say Let me clarify Dominica Martinique we could get some very heavy rain in some spots at times north of Dominica kind of Guadalupe the marker for lesser amounts but still as this tropical waves passes by scattered showers and storms in some very high totals Haiti and the Dominican Republic even Puerto Rico because we have thunderstorms today in spots and then we have the tropical wave that's just going to kind of add on to some of the totals so we are going to see watching the river crossings by the way very carefully Dominican Republic you get over toward Haiti watching over toward Jacques Mel we're going to see some higher totals and again the British and U.S Virgin Islands back through Puerto Rico uh the Virgin Islands right off of the east coast of Puerto Rico we could see some spots getting some heavier totals as we slide over the next three days so uh gonna be watching out for all of this carefully there's that tropical wave just kind of want to broaden out the picture for us and take you through the week this is by the time we get into Thursday and you see how we're staying very quiet across the Gulf of Mexico spotty showers Cuba and the Bahamas there's that tropical wave moving by again not seeing organization out of it always a chance it tries to spin up water temperatures are super warm but water temperatures are just one ingredient but by the time we get into the weekend see the rain a little more widespread Central and Western Caribbean and then watching out here this is when we'll see even stronger tropical waves coming off so this weekend there are some signs that a couple of the tropical waves the impulses that are over Africa right now will eventually develop and that's a sign of what I was talking about late August a better chance of getting some development all right let's get a look at what we got going on next name on the list is Emily we got off to a super fast start to the season four named storms and there was an unnamed storm in January that was just not classified at the time so there's actually been five systems Emily though will be the next name on the list and again it's that quiet period that we're dealing with now but I expect more available moisture out there in the Atlantic late August that's when I expect to get some more in the way of name systems that fits with climatology August into September and October that's that's the peak of the Season September 10th is the peak of the Season hurricane season goes through the end of November now Eastern Pacific a little bit of a lull right now not as much action that we're seeing now but I'm going to keep an eye on the actual the tropical wave that we're watching it's it's crazy how weather's tied together the tropical wave that's moving into the Eastern Caribbean some of the models are hinting that once that eventually moves through Central America it moves into the Eastern Pacific that it will develop much like we had with Dora that actually originated again uh way the heck out there so I'll be watching that for some uh possibility to development but uh uh that's way way down the road right now Eastern Pacific just a bit uh quieter so Barbados rain chance going up highlighted the flooding again we could get some spots 125 millimeters of rain if you can if you could do me a favor in the comment section no matter where you are let me know what's going on if the weather's quiet that's what this channel is about it's a weather Community for safety so again let us know what's going on you could just put your location and the weather you've got going on the next few days as this stronger tropical wave moves by and again it's not going to impact all of us 80 percent chance of rain on uh late especially late tomorrow in St Lucia on our Wednesday also in tomorrow's video on a breakdown the winds we'll have some gustier winds with this tropical wave moving in Jamaica Ranch chance about 50 percent tomorrow and Thursday but it should pick up some by the time we get into the weekend Belize limited the next few days it is hot it is so hot we've had some of our hottest weather not just of the season but over the last couple years in some spots we've had that just over the last few days Trinidad no exception rain chance picking up uh we'll trade uh the heat for a better chance of rain of course with that comes the threat of some flooding Grenada tomorrow and Thursday rain chance higher same thing St Vincent the Grenadines have been covering this for you tropical wave all right on track with this uh forecast with this tropical wave 40 percent chance of rain Wednesday and Thursday in uh the Cayman Islands the Bahamas limited chance of rain super super hot weather same thing back through Florida it's been incredibly hot Turks and Caicos isolated shower or storm popping up better chance late week as we work our way into uh Dominica again rain chance tomorrow on Thursday higher watching out for the possibility of flooding watching out for that as well Guadalupe unique again that's kind of Guadalupe Dominica Martinique that's kind of the cutoff to the north not quite as much rain but we're still going to see some rain in spots and you see Puerto Rico scattered showers and storms could see a few spots getting some of those higher totals U.S British Virgin Islands as I showed you rain chance will go up tomorrow and Thursday let me know in the comments if you happen to get a shower let me know your location as well Dominican Republic rain chance stays kind of elevated the issue will be those downpours those big time tropical downpours parts of the Dominican Republic parts of Haiti that will lead to the runoff especially in Haiti that could give us a sharp rise in some of the rivers it just takes a foot of water a foot of moving water can move a vehicle I'm not just talking about a motorcycle but an actual car or kind of a Jeep it could actually shift you off of the road and you know how that goes and if you tip over we've got some big issues Saint Kitts Nevis Montserrat rain chance we had some showers finally had some showers last night and this morning that was some good news Saint Kitts Nevis and Montserrat Antigua Barbuda rain chance getting to 40 percent on Thursday and Anguilla we've had some scattered showers around so at least the pattern starting to break a bit St Martin say bastacia same thing rain chance going up tomorrow tomorrow and into Friday Curacao limited but by Thursday 30 40 percent chance and about a 30 percent chance in Aruba so again rain chance does take up with his tropical wave across the ABC islands I really really hope some of these showers hang together Thursday Thursday night a better chance of rain in Aruba not a super high chance not a guarantee but at least it's headed in the right direction Costa Rica that rain chance is back watching out for isolated flooding Coastal sections and Inland sections in Costa Rica Guyana rain chance 50 the rest of today's 60 chance tomorrow Suriname 40 percent chance today 30 percent chance tomorrow and a 40 chance in Venezuela by the end of the week a little bit higher again extreme Northern Venezuela especially Northeastern Venezuela higher chance of rain so that flooding risk is getting higher with this tropical way moving in Dominica South through Trinidad best chance of getting some of that flooding in this tropical wave then moves West so we'll be seeing that rain chance increasing Haiti uh parts of Cuba Jamaica and the Cayman Islands even Central and America down the road so that rain chance overall is getting higher so it's getting busy I'll be watching this wave carefully not seeing signs of development with it at this time so I'll be tracking the downpours the flooding and some of the Gusty winds with it I'll keep you posted you keep me posted as well I'll see you next time

Channel: Mr. Weatherman

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Id: 7Tvw92AF-Cs

Length: 12min 27sec (747 seconds)

Published: Tue Aug 08 2023