>> YES ENJOY. >> THANK YOU I'LL SEE YOU LATER ANDREW >> THANKS, BECKY JOIN US RIGHT NOW FOR A CLOSER LOOK AT THE MARKET AND FED AS DAVID RUBENSTEIN, CO-FOUNDER AND CO-CHAIRMAN. GREAT TO SEE YOU AS ALWAYS I THINK I'LL GET A CHANCE TO SEE YOU AT THE ASPEN INSTITUTE NEXT WEEK LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE THE MARKETS ARE RIGHT NOW AND SPECIFICALLY WHERE YOU THINK THE FED REALLY IS. >> I THINK THE FED MADE IT CLEAR TO EVERYBODY THAT INTEREST RATES ARE NOT GOING DOWN THIS YEAR I THINK THE MARKET FUTURES HAD ANTICIPATED A DECLINE PERHAPS BY THE END OF THIS YEAR IN INTEREST RATES OR BEGINNING OF IT AND JAY POWELL'S STATEMENT IN FRONT OF CONGRESS THIS WEEK MADE IT CLEAR THAT AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR YOU'RE NOT GOING TO SEE ANY RATE DECREASES THE MARKET GOT AHEAD OF THE FED I THINK A LITTLE BIT, ANTICIPATING SOME RATE CUTS AND I THINK JAY POWELL MADE IT CLEAR IT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN THIS YEAR >> I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE CARLISLE HOUSE OF VIEW IT BUT WHEN YOU GUYS SIT AROUND ON MONDAY MORNINGS AND TALK ABOUT WHERE RATES WILL BE SIX, 12 MONTHS OUT, IS IT YOUR VIEW THERE'S ONLY TWO MORE RATE INCREASES? DO YOU THINK THERE'S MORE TO GO? WE TALKED TO FOLKS ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT DEBATE >> THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM TODAY IS YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TWO QUARTER POINT INCREASES BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF THE YEAR AND WE'RE PROBABLY WITH THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM. THAT'S ASSUMING THERE'S NO EXOGENOUS THINGS WE CAN'T ANTICIPATE THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM IS ALMOST ALWAYS WRONG. THAT'S THE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM >> IF YOU SAY IT'S ALWAYS WRONG, DO YOU HAVE A VIEW >> WELL, MY -- >> I'M GOING TO LEAN MORE THAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER >> YOU HAVE TO GO WITH THE CONVENTION WISDOM AT THIS POINT. BASED ON EVERYTHING WE KNOW TODAY, ASSUMING NOTHING TERRIBLE HAPPENS OVERSEAS AND NO BIG CALAMITIES, THE FED HAS MADE IT CLEAR THEY'RE GOING TO INCREASE INTEREST RATES ABOUT TWO MORE TIMES, PROBABLY 25 BASIS POINTS APIECE AND NEXT YEAR WILL LOOK AT A DECREASE BUT NO GUARANTEES THERE EITHER >> AS SOMEONE WHO INVESTS IN CLIMATE AND CREDIT MARKETS, DO YOU SAY TO YOURSELF I WANT TO BE BUYING AT THESE RATES BECAUSE THEY'RE ONLY GOING UP FROM HERE? IT'S GOES TO TRYING TO DECIDE WHERE THINGS ARE HEADED OR DO YOU SAY I HAVE TO HARVEST AND SELL >> THE GREATEST FORTUNES ARE MADE WHEN THINGS ARE TROUBLESOME. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A LOT OF COMPLICATIONS IN THE MARKET. SOME PEOPLE ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT THE REALS STATE MARKET, THE REAL ESTATE DEBT MARKET. THERE ARE SOME CHALLENGES AND WE HAVEN'T SEEN THEM ALL COME TO THE FORE YET IT'S A GOOD TIME TO INVEST ASSUMING YOU'RE PREPARED TO HOLD ON IF YOU WANT A QUICK FLIP, THAT'S PROBABLY NOT THE BEST THING TO DO RIGHT NOW BUT MAKING LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS, NOW IS IS A PRETTY GOOD TIME TO INVEST. THERE'S NOT AS MUCH COMPETITION. IF YOU GET IT THROUGH AND GET IT FINANCED, YOU'RE PROBABLY GOING TO DO OKAY IN FOUR, FIVE YEARS MARKETS SHOW WHEN PRIVATE EQUITY FIRMS ARE LOOKED AT, WHAT ARE THE BEST FUNDS AND VINTAGES? ALMOST ALWAYS THEY'RE AT TIMES WHEN THERE'S ECONOMIC TROUBLE. RIGHT NOW THERE'S SOME TROUBLE >> GIVEN WHAT YOU'RE SEEING, THOUGH, AMONG YOUR PORTFOLIO COMPANIES AND THIS GOES MAYBE TO -- IT ALMOST LIKE A BARRY STERNLICHT QUESTION. WE HAD HIM ON EARLIER THIS WEEK. HE THINKS THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN WAY MORE THAN THE FED BELIEVES THEY HAVE AND THAT HIS DATA IS MUCH MORE UP TO DATE, IF YOU WILL, THAN WHAT HE THINKS OF AS THE LAGGING DATA THAT THE FED GETS WHAT DOES THE CARLISLE DATA SHOW YOU IN. >> WE HAVE DATA ON SEVERAL HUNDRED COMPANIES WE OWN AND WE LOOK AT THAT AND COMPARE IT TO HOW THE ECONOMY USUALLY DOES AND WE SEND THAT TO THE FED. OUR DATA DOES NOT SHOW A RECESSION ANY TIME SOON. THIS IS THE MOST ANTICIPATED RECESSION IN HISTORY AND HASN'T HAPPENED YET AND OUR DATA DOES NOT SHOW A RECESSION COMING IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WE DON'T SEE DECLINE IN CONSUMERS SALES. WE SEE ENORMOUS SPENDING ON THINGS LIKE CONCERTS AND THOLS AND RESTAURANTS, THINGS LIKE THAT WE JUST DON'T SEE IT RIGHT NOW IN THE DATA. >> WHAT LOOKS CHEAP TO YOU RIGHT NO, WHERE YOU SAY, OKAY, MAYBE IT'S TIME TO -- WOULD YOU GO BY REAL ESTATE IN SAN FRANCISCO OR REGIONAL BANK? >> EVERYTHING IS THE PRICE TELL ME WHAT THE PRICE IS AND I'LL TELL WHAT YOU WE DO FOR SURE TAKE COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE. WE ALL KNOW FEWER PEOPLE ARE GOING INTO OFFICES THAN USED TO BE THE CASE. IF YOU GO TO BIG OFFICE BUILDINGS IN NEW YORK CITY, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE PEOPLE THERE MAYBE TWO OR THREE DAYS A WEEK IF YOU'RE LUCKY. SOME FIRMS TRY TO GET THEIR PEOPLE BACK EVERY DAY BUT REALLY TWO OR THREE DAYS A WEEK IS WHAT YOU'RE SEEING. AT SOME POINT PEOPLE ARE GOING TO SAY WE NEED LESS SPACE AND THE VALUE OF THESE BUILDINGS IS GOING TO GO DOWN NO DOUBT ABOUT IT. SO REAL ESTATE DEBT GOING TO BE AT SALE FOR DISCOUNTS AT WHAT IT IS TODAY THAT'S PROBABLY THE BIGGEST TUNE OVER THE NEXT TWO, THREE YEARS IS DISCOUNTED REAL ESTATE DEBT IN BIG CITIES. >> THIS GOES TO QUESTIONS ABOUT CITIES SAN FRANCISCO IS A CITY WE TALK A LOT ABOUT ON THIS BROADCAST, WE TALK ABOUT SEATTLE, WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN CHALLENGED, CHICAGO HAS BEEN CHALLENGED. ARE THERE CERTAIN CITIES YOU THINK ARE SORT OF TOO, YOU KNOW, TOO HOT TO HANDLE? >> OCCASIONALLY WHENEVER THINGS GO DOWN IN THE CITY FOR A WHILE, PEOPLE SAY THE DEATH OF CITY IS UPON US. BUT I DON'T THINK THE BIG CITIES ARE GOING AWAY ANY TIME SOON CLEARLY SAN FRANCISCO HAD ITS OUTSIDE PUBLIC RELATIONS PROBLEM FOR SURE BUT I DON'T THINK SAN FRANCISCO IS GOING AWAY. PRICES IN REAL ESTATE IS GOING TO GO DOWN THERE FOR A WHILE BUT IT STILL A MAJOR CITY IN THE UNITED STATES. IT NOT GOING AWAY. I DON'T THINK PEOPLE ARE MOVING TO FARMS TO GET OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO. >> IS IT A PUBLIC RELATIONS PROBLEM BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT WHAT'S HAPPENING THERE? >> THERE'S NO DOUBT THERE'S CHALLENGES IN SAN FRANCISCO. IT'S NOT LIKE EVERYBODY'S MOVING OUT OF SAN FRANCISCO TO TEXAS. >> I KNOW, BUT THERE'S SERIOUS CHALLENGES IN A LOT OF CITIES. IT'S NOT P.R THEY HAVE BETTER CRISIS P.R. PEOPLE THE PROBLEM WOULD GO AWAY >> I DIDN'T SAY THAT YOU LIVE OR WORK IN THE NEW YORK CITY AREA. NEW YORK CITY WAS THOUGHTBE DEAD AT THE TIME OF THE CORONAVIRUS THERE ARE CHAL
