Did the federal budget help Liberals with younger voters? | Power & Politics

the liberal governments to pitch to sell their budget and change their fortunes continues across the country today to unlock a path to a safe secure comfortable middle class life for all Canadians particularly the young Canadians who today feel that that is Out Of Reach but that message doesn't seem to be having much of an effect on the polls in the days after the budget was tabled ipso shows the conservatives held a 19point lead over the conservatives plus a third of Canadians say they would never vote liberal in the next election abacus's data shows no movement in the polls in favor of the Liberals in the days following their pre-budget announcements and no movement in any of the core trackers for the two younger age cohorts so have the Liberals missed a chance to take a bite out of the conservatives polling lead with budget 2024 or could the message need more time to sink in we're going to talk about that with the Tuesday power panel Emily Nicola is a columnist with L devir Michelle cadario is a former liberal campaign director franois ban is a former NDP MP and Kate Harrison is a conservative political analyst good to see you all appreciate it Michelle uh let let's start with you uh I the main target of this budget as the Liberals have told us again and again and again our Millennials and gen Zeds if the polling is to believed nothing has moved but are millennials and gen Zeds seeing the budget in real time with the way they consume news or do we need to wait longer for more targeted digital strategy IES or this just miss them entirely well I think first we have to put it in context um the uh these polls you know one of them was actually taken before the the budget was actually tabled um so I'm not saying that anything is fundamentally change and I doubt that the Topline numbers will change what you want to see is are the underlying numbers softening right when you're this far behind that's what you're looking for are the key indicators and so some of the things I saw in that true the numbers who are not going to consider the Liberals is not great but the the F the the conservatives are only five points um beneath that so that Gap that Delta is actually quite tight compared to what the Topline number um Partyline thing is so that's something to be looking for and again you want to be looking at some of the issue sets some of the more detailed things because that's going to move first and that's going to see if you mix you made your mark what I'll also say though is um how are people going to see it if there's no advertising behind it right and so you know I hope that this would be a strategy that they've laid out it's a path forward that's not going to be just kind of a onetime thing you drop the announcement the press release goes out and it's into the trash bin and on to the next thing it has to be repeated over and over using every bit of um a free media that you and earn media that you absolutely can and then you got to put some weighted pay paid behind it so that people who we want to see it those targeted people see those messages that are key to them so you know I you can't just do it as one shot and think that it's going to be an answer right if they actually have a full strategy this will be just one part that should go forward well Emily this is what I'm I'm wondering about in terms of reaching uh that younger cohort of Voters much younger than me as you are uh it's more of a digital strategy play and I'm sure it's not showing up in my algorithms because I'm going to be 51 soon and that's not who they're appealing to right now so do do do how do we assess their effectiveness at reaching the younger generation do we uh jump to conclusions based on what we seen in the polls or does this need more time to marinate in terms of reaching them I don't know what's your sense first of all I I love how you're using your power the powers invested in you as a CBC host to try to make gen Zed a thing that people say I have to speak Canadian English or I get yelled at and hated so being from newf Land I already get enough complaints about how I say stuff sure sure I wish you good luck on that Journey that being said I do see I some of the Justino uh Instagram posts get get pushed uh my way um I see when you're when you're on Instagram a lot what you're seeing is that the liberal um the the liberal videos are overproduced uh for the Instagram feel uh the classic video of a of a politician walking towards the camera very feeling very confident and cocky you know with a smile and telling you those messages that works great for TV ad it sounds off for Instagram Instagram is more hey I'm taking 30 seconds in my busy day to tell you something that's very genuine and then I'm going to go back to my day and it looks ugly but that's what makes it real um so I'm making a bit of a caricature here uh but it's it's overproduced and that makes it come across as fake the second thing is that um Christa freand uh in terms of her communication style not the greatest person to put forward to try to talk to jenz uh jened sorry David and it's working it's working in Millennials and and the Millennials that's just not the greatest spokesperson um to speak to that generation and to try to have an emotional connection and relatability uh so the Jus TR has a team uh if he he wants to deploy communication strategy that's going to reach younger people I know it's the tradition to have the Finance Minister Take the Lead but if you're trying to reach young people I think it could be a team effort yeah and fr I think that's what they were trying to do in the runup to the budget because it felt like it was Shan Fraser's budget for about two weeks there as he was sort of the headline minister at a lot of different things but but I it's I have no clear sense whether they've actually reached younger Canadians uh with this at this point in time they have angered a lot of uh corporate Canadians and Incorporated Canadians and wealthier Canadians with the capital gains tax changes and they've gotten pushback on that has that in any way do you think crowded things out in terms of them trying to deliver this message of Hope well first I I would like to say when was the last time we all got excited and happy because of a filing of a budget I'm I'm looking down decades and I've rarely seen anybody saying rejoicing and saying hey look the budget is talking to me the budget is doing this and the budget is doing that so I think we're doing a way too much Focus day today on the budget the strategy for the Liberals I think for the last two three weeks was to let's talk in the public sphere because Mr PV was getting all the the attention with his rallies and so on and for a couple of weeks we saw a much much more liberals coming out and and talking about different things to come now they file the budget if they believe in their budget and I have no reason to to believe that they don't they need to do two things they need to definitely focus and they need to get some results that they can really promote instead of just plain air and and possibilities they need the economy to and that they have no control are not too much on uh to to improve uh inflation interest rates and so on they need the mood to change in the country because when I look at the at the polls and I see the numbers and I see we get all excited because one party get gets 43% then you have to apply in each provinces and where do those votes goes and so on and so forth but even on the budget and and the impression of people still 28% had zero or didn't want to voice their opinion and of the 72% left it's pretty KK between I don't really care and I'm giving thumbs thumbs down and and and some will really gives thumbs up so that's why I go back to my initial proposition liberals if you want to make any possible gain next next year when the election come if it comes in 2025 like it's supposed to be well focus and get some results because nothing talk more than results if there's more housing a available it's a tall task but they kind of paint themselves in that corner and they will have to to live with it and I say campaign matters so when there'll be 30 some days that's when the youth and even the the the olders uh like you uh David uh we we we are actually glued to their words in that period of time and anything can happen so still a lot of fun to come in politics no I'll be sitting here with a blanket wrapped around my legs watching The Campaign uh ferociously but Kate one of the things the Liberals were hoping to do it seems with this campaign uh was to draw the conservatives in on what will you cut and a fight on the capital gains tax that contrast uh between them this is you know what you use inflection points for to try to sharpen that contrast on the tax stuff it doesn't seem I don't know what the conservatives are going to do but they're not going to take the bait is is what it seems they have not responded or engaged in this in any kind of a way yeah and this very much was a budget designed to be a conversation around that and the polling so far has indicated that Canadians weren't all that interested in having that conversation they wanted to have a conversation about affordability some of the IPS is polling really interestingly when you ask Canadians you know do you think it'll be better off as a result of this budget uh 45% say no I won't be and that was the piece that I think was really missing from the budget is okay what is in here that gets at the day-to-day affordability piece yes there's the conversation around housing we've talked before that's more of a medium-term play that doesn't provide relief tomorrow or the next day um so that kind of retail piece was missing I I think France has a point in terms of this idea of a post budget bump and glow um is is a bit fictitious it's kind of like looking to a cabinet Shuffle to solve all of your political problems or you know making a modification around the carbon tax and like that's the solve that's all that we need to do this has been brewing for so long um this trajectory for the Liberals and there's that that trust deficit and my co-panelists have some great ideas in terms of advertising I think that's a that's a good suggestion and that focus and that discipline but the elephant in the room is that no cap Justin Trudeau has lost his RZ he's not able to connect with the Gen Z anymore he doesn't have the ability to authentically relate to them so no matter what he says it's going to fall on years you and and just to follow up on that I mean I I agree with you a budget in normal times is not going to be a GameChanger in any way it's the way this one was done this campaign style approach of the of a government that has lost control of the narrative and the day-to-day news agenda trying to regain control of it and for a while they did that at least in terms of driving what news content and conversations was about but maybe it's just the way people consume information now and and how they've tuned out from traditional media that it's not getting through it's part of that but it was also a deliberate choice on the part of the Liberals to make budget day about this capital gains tax uh I think that they overestimated the public desire to see uh businesses and individuals taxed more to pay for Liberal promises as opposed to seeing the Liberals spend less so that was a Cho Choice excuse me and I think it was a strategic miscalculation on their part so Michelle where do you go from here uh I know you've talked about the advertising and uh this is something the party may not have the money it needs to do advertising at the scale it would like to do to counter what Mr PV and the conservatives are able to do and they've really since 2015 kind of said no way to the kind of like Canada's economic action plan advertising we used to see under the Harper government so it takes the public funds uh away from you and your ability even to do informational advertising that could Veer into the political branding thing so what do you do as a government right now if uh if this was the shot you shot and uh may have missed uh keep your aim and keep your focus to be honest um it's it's a long you got to play long game you know what's the the the ad you have to say things a thousand times for 50 people to hear it once um and uh and you've got to keep that kind of old adage in mind uh even more so now when you know the media and and how people consume things is so disperate um you know they they need they need to have that kind of multi-level strategy going after the various Target groups um and they need to focus in uh with the right Messenger as Emily was saying but and the right message and they can't just lose focus now and jump to the next thing otherwise you will you'll never get it across so the you know it's a huge challenge to keep the to keep the news um fresh on the things that they want to talk about um and uh you know there's you know no one does anything without a good amount of uh polling behind it um and so uh you know it is curious that Mr PV is um uh choosing to say nothing once again on absolutely all of these issues um fair enough at some point he's going to have to you know he's kind of getting the benefit of the doubt of that people think that he's going to get rid of the capital gains tax and uh and reduce it again I don't know I doubt it he certainly hasn't promised it um but but we'll see uh and but at some point you know there's going to be that you've got to keep trying to drive those wedges because that's what keeps the conversation going and the fact that we're still talking about the the uh the capital gains a week later is a win in their column because that was actually something a tax measure from the last budget so you know that it was a deliberate conversation that they wanted Canadians to have but but I wonder France while just on that and going back to what you said about about Finance Minister Freeland we're still talking about it but it's because it's being rebranded as attacks on Innovation attacks on doctors attack on retirements uh which may or may not be what it is because you know people have complex uh Financial structure and and while they may have wanted this to be sort of a wedge that they can drive in and make it about class and generational fairness against all of this push back they've been trying to minimize the consequences of it which makes it sound smaller than I think they need it to be to be the wedge that actually drives into that hole right so like how do you prosecute that when you're trying to make the argument you're a good Steward of the economy as well well somebody was sleeping at the wheel in my book because it in a sense they should have known that there would be some push back they wanted the narrative if I'm correct to be we're taxing the rich those who got properties not that we're not taxing the residents uh the principal residents and so on and so forth now you get the doctors in you get all type of uh uh of people I've got people writing to me every day one guy's a a farmer and he invested in some real estate and that's his pension fund for for when he's done working so hard so don't are maybe things that they didn't foresee in some aspect or maybe they're not even covered I don't know I'm not a specialist but they should have sell it better to and and know beforehand that those cases would come out I mean don't make me bleed with the doctors who are incor Incorporated like in Quebec where they get all type of advantages to be doing so not like us lame people who are not doctors who pay some full price just to get real estate governments help them to set shop and and be able to to to see public and and and good for that because we need them to to to act but then they become a corporation they get more money B so on and so forth so the government sometimes they've got great ideas they don't look too far away they don't analyze in in in in uh in death and and then when something comes like this they look like like uh uh people not ready who who don't know what they're talking about and and and Emily I think was saying that chrisa Freeland is not their best communicator and there if there's one thing your Finance Minister must be one of your best because all the trust and faith in the budget lies on their shoulder so if she's not their best Communicator they've got a problem right then and there so so Emily to pick up on some something that Michelle had said um you know I've seen conservatives asked about the capital tax many many many times and I I don't know what they're going to do I I know they want to ax the carbon tax fix the budget build the home stop the crime that's and that's kind and cut the CBC uh and that's kind of where it ends right in terms of clarity so how sustainable is that now with the runway we have left uh to an election and these sort of whether they're big enough wedges or not these specific things being put on the table that that that visible and loud and vocal cohorts of the population are weighing in on for the opposition and the government Front Runners not to take clear positions on these things how how sustainable is that do you think uh there's two things on the liberal side uh for the wedges to actually be wedges uh they need to uh be strongly re you know claimed as wedges and not trying to meet people in the middle which is hard to do when you're you're liberal because you're a Centrist by DNA but if you're if you're going uh for the tax the rich thing uh which I can guarantee you there's very few Millennials and and and J zad Who feel attacked by the capital gain thing right if you're really trying to get those people to vote for you uh you should not be shying away from using the tax Rich narrative that you had planned to you even if it makes right some doctors unhappy I don't know a lot of people under the age of 35 will feel sorry for uh the the the the the specialist who uh who is created this great structure that allows them to not pay a lot of taxes I don't think there's a lot of sympathy for that when you're not affording a home so I think they need to understand that they're not going to make everyone happy with this narrative which one again runs against the DNA of a party that calls itself the natural governing party and the one that can bring all Canadians together in an age of polarized politics that's not what their political reflexes are and on the conservative part party there is a a game changer that can happen uh in the sense that now they they are not necessarily that much for forced to have not only just criticism but actually policies as we were uh is if we heading towards a campaign H they'll have to have a program at some point and so that's why campaigns matter right is that uh if if if there's a conservative program and people don't like it uh it it changes it changes the whole the whole Narrative of of Canadian politics and so as long as they don't have that uh it's it's they they can be rising in a poll but if whatever they come up with is not they haven't caught it through uh that well uh that's when you could see a a change in the tendency that we've seen in the poll that is very much dig uh dig dig very deep at this point uh but it could change when the conservatives are not just challenging but actually saying something I'm exaggerating no I know what you mean something something more specific and and you know there are look this approach has worked well for them and I don't see them switching it they have to but look I I I do want to just quickly switch topic um because we got Minister Steven gabbo coming up in just a second but I they didn't they want to talk about capital gains tax rather than carbon tax but the Prime Minister was talking about the carbon tax today in saskatch and announcing that people there will continue to receive the full Federal rebate despite the fact the province isn't collecting the tax on home heating it have been previously suggested the rebates might be reduced because of less Revenue being remitted but the en environment Minister Steven Gilbo says this decision means the people's disc catchment is going to get the same unreduced rebate as every other Canadian gets just have a listen four times a year they will get uh the Canada carbon rebate uh as do other Canadians and provinces where the federal system is apply and they won't be penalized because their Premier Premier Scott MO is is playing politics with with climate change and the Prime Minister and I think cabinet felt that that it wouldn't be fair for for for for the people of Saskatchewan to pay for for the irresponsible attitude of the provincial government okay I I want to do a quick round on on this uh before we take a break but Kate on this talking about not taking bait and giving people fights they want on their terms by not reducing the rebate are they not taking the bait Scott Mo wanted and giving him the political fight he wants an election letting CRA deal with this for the tax system are they kind of backing down on a threat to impose consequences on Saskatchewan because of the actions of the Premier where do you think this lines yeah I I think it is a little bit of a middle ground I I'm not sure that it will do much to deter Scott Mo's fervor against the carbon TX I think it will um but I'm also not sure that it's going to necessarily have the you know consequence of the public saying oh I I'm so glad the government is being the bigger person here and you know I get my rebate I think that generally speaking public opinion has shifted on this in such a way that um the federal government kind of no matter what they do at this stage there's going to be a lot of questions about whether or not this is uh an effective policy whether or not the rebate will actually you know make one kind of hole considering what they might be out um so they they could have forced the question a little bit harder Again difficult to do that when they did open the door in October to some changes yeah so uh so that's um it's been challenging for them to navigate that okay Michelle what are your thoughts on this it's interesting because I think it was Jonathan Wilkinson who said on the show that maybe the rebates would redu and now that's not happening well let's be honest there's not a lot of votes in saskat when they're come the liberal way even in the best of times right um but I suspect that um you know there was there's no good there was no good politics in this um you know don't want to just take uh Scott Mo's um uh bait and give him red meat and fodder for the election campaign and one more thing to rail against um and I also suspect that it would be pretty difficult to try and figure out how to do some kind of a calculation um and change CRA just for the folks the taxpayers is thekat on and you know it probably cost more to do that than they are actually paying out to um to give the full rebate right and so it was better politics keep it up okay uh Emily a quick 30 seconds from you and then 30 seconds from franois and then we have to say goodbye uh you don't want to punish the people for the action of their government um so even though the tax is not collected uh at this point if it will be in the future would be punishing the people not to collect a rebate and that's been the narrative uh coming from the criticism of the liberal government that they are having an approach of to climate policy that is about punishing individuals um so I think it's the right call for them to not do that and still offer the rebate okay franois your quick final thoughts very quickly and I hope you ask Minister Gilbo just for my sake uh is the tax still going to be charged and just not collected by nobody it's going to be in limbo which case I agree don't penalize uh um the public but if it's not charged and people are receiving an a check on top of it I'm just wondering about the legal ramification and how all all this gets uh settled uh settled in so if it's just a question of I charge the tax but then nobody wants the amount that I charge to somebody yeah uh not clear in my head so I'm going to listen to your interview very very very very closely well I think uh that's probably more a question for the Canada Revenue Agency in terms of how they're going to get it back right because I think this a little busy right now I think this ends up in Federal Tax Court his majesty the king versus his majesty the king it's going to be uh quite quite the case I want to thank you all the king Emily Nicola Michelle cadario Fran and Kate Harrison thanks so much gang thank you see you

Channel: CBC News

Views: 28,038

Keywords: cbc, cbc news, abacus, Ipsos, federal budget, liberal polling, young voters

Id: 99YUF9OUVbc

Length: 25min 21sec (1521 seconds)

Published: Tue Apr 23 2024