DO IT SOON. >> NOT AT ALL. GREAT TO SEE YOU. >> JOE, BACK TO YOU. >>> THANKS. BEEN A WHILE. AND INVESTMENT FOUNDER IS HERE. KNOWS ALL ABOUT TECH, AND YOU WOULD LIKE TO OWN SOME, SHORT SOME AND WE WANT TO HEAR ABOUT THAT, BUT I THINK YOU'VE GOT COMMENTS ABOUT APPLE. IT'S UP THIS MORNING. ONE OF YOUR BIGGEST HOLDINGS LONG. ISN'T IT, DAN? >> CORRECT. IT'S MY SECOND LARGEST HOLDING ON THE LONG SIDE IN TERMS OF SINGLE STOCKS, AND I THINK WHEN YOU LOOK AT APPLE, IT HAS A PRETTY CONSISTENT PATTERN IN THE SENSE THAT PEOPLE ALWAYS WANT TO GET EXCITED IN FRONT OF NEW PRODUCTS, ET CETERA. I DON'T THINK INVESTORS WILL FOCUS REVENUES ARE DOWN 4% YEAR OVER YEAR AND IN THE LAST THREE YEARS ONLY UP 1%. COMPARE THAT AGAINST THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN, REVENUES UP 42% YEAR OVER YEAR AND THEY'RE UP 86% YEAR OVER YEAR FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS, AND IF YOU GO OUT TO EVEN FIVE YEARS MAGNIFICENT SEVEN REVENUES ARE 275%. APPLE'S ONLY 56%. NO MATTER WHAT TIME PERIOD YOU LOOK AT THIS THE STOCK ON A REVENUE GROWTH BASIS UNDERPERFORMED, BUT FOR INVESTORS, THERE'S ALWAYS THE HOPE THERE'S AN UPGRADE CYCLE COMING OR SOME GREAT NEW PRODUCT, AND WHAT YOU HAVE COMING IN JUNE, THE 10th, IS THE WORLDWIDE DEVELOPERS' CONFERENCE AND THE HOPE IS THAT THEY'LL PUT OUT STUFF AND THAT'S GOING TO DRIVE REVENUE GROWTH AND UPGRADE CYCLE. SO WE THINK THE STOCK WILL TRADE UP INTO THAT AND EVENTUALLY YOU'LL GET TO WHATEVER THE REALITY IS IN TERMS OF, DOES THAT ACTUALLY HAPPEN? AND THEY ACTUALLY GO OUT TO CELL THE NEW iPHONES. MUCH LIKE THE VISIONPRO WHERE ANYBODY'S ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT THAT ANYMORE. >> RIGHT. YOU STATE IN THE NOTES STOCKS IN THE SHORT TERM TRADE ON THINGS LIKE THAT. INVESTOR BELIEF. SENTIMENT. NOT NECESSARILY FUNDAMENTALS, AND VALUATION. I'M SURE YOU PORED OVER THE DETAILS OF APPLE'S REPORT ANYWAY, EVEN THOUGH THAT MIGHT NOT BE WHAT CAUSES THE STOCK TO MOVE TODAY. SO IN THERE, IF YOU LOOK GRANULELY, WHAT WAS NOT AS BAD AS PEOPLE THOUGHT? >> WHAT WAS SOLID WAS SERVICES'S THAT DID WELL. AND iMAX DID WELL. iPHONE CAME IN A LITTLE BELOW EXPECTED. I KNOW APPLE'S TRYING TO TALK ABOUT MAINLY IN CHINA, BUT POOR CHINA, GREATER CHINA. STILL DOWN 8%. SO THERE'S NO WAY YOU CAN LOOK AT THIS REPORT, IF YOU LOOK WHAT THEY GUIDED TO, WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY REVENUES FLATTISH VERSUS LAST YEAR. REPORTED DOWN FOUR. APPLE PROBABLY HAS ONE OF THE BEST INVESTOR RESES TEAM RELATI TEAMS BECAUSE THEY MANAGED TO GET ESTIMATES DOWN PER WHEN THEY ORIGINALLY GAVE GUIDANCE TO NOW. LOOKS LIKE THEY GOT TO THE NUMBERS, BUT THOSE ARE THE PIECES WITHIN THAT. REMEMBER, THERE IS PRESSURE ON THE SERVICES SIDE AND WE'VE GOT THIS GOVERNMENT LAWSUIT GOING ON. WE'LL SEE IF THEY HAVE TO UNBUNDLE WHAT GOOGLE PAYS TO THEM. A BIG PORTION OF THE SERVICES PROFITS, ET CETERA. SO THERE IS SOME RISK TO THAT GOING FORWARD. SO FROM A LONGER-TERM BASIS WE STILL LIKE THE OTHER NAMES IN THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN. SO SPECIFICALLY AMAZON, TREMENDOUS PROFIT GROWTH. META. MICROSOFT. SO, NVIDIA, OBVIOUSLY, ON THE A.I. SIDE. THOSE ARE THE ONES WE'D BE MORE FOCUSED IN LONG. ON RETURNS. >> YOU OWN ALL OF THOSE AND LIKE ALL OF THOSE FUNDAMENTALLY, LONG TERM. YOU LIKE ALL OF THOSE BETTER THAN APPLE? >> LONG TERM, CORRECT? NEAR TERM, APPLE, I THINK, BETWEENth, THERE EVENT, PEOPLE HOPING FOR UPGRADED CYCLE COMING. >> NOT SAYING THAT -- I DON'T KNOW WHERE THE MARKET'S GOING. SO I'D LIKE TO MAYBE HAVE A SHORT POSITION IN SOMETHING IN CASE -- I DON'T KNOW. IN CASE THE NASDAQ COMES DOWN. ARE YOU SURE? ANYTHING? ARE YOU SHORT? ANYTHING? >> I MEAN, TESLA A NAME WE'RE SHORT AGAIN. WE'VE GOT OTHER SHORTS. I MEAN, SHORTS FOR VIEWERS, THEY'RE INCREDIBLY DANGEROUS. >> YEP. >> SINGLE STOCK SHORTS YOU BETTER HAVE A REALLY GOOD GRIP ON THIS AND REALLY MANAGE THE RISK, ENGAGING. STOCKS DON'T GENERALLY GO TO ZERO. IF YOU WANT TO HEDGE THE MARKET YOU'RE BETTER OFF DOING A BROADER-BASED SHORT POSITION. AROUND THINGS LIKE THE S&P 500 OR NASDAQ. IT MAY SURPRISE SOME VIEWERS, BUT NASDAQ IS UP LESS THAN THE S&P SO FAR THIS YEAR. THERE'S A GROUP OF NAMES WHERE PROFITS ARE SURGING. SUCH AS AN AMAZON OR A META, ET CETERA. AND THEN THERE'S ANOTHER GROUP LIKE AN APPLE OR TESLA WHERE, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE JUST NOT GROWING RIGHT NOW. SO THAT'S WHERE YOU NEED TO KIND OF GET A LOT MORE SELECTIVE. SO THIS IS A GREAT ENVIRONMENT FOR A STOCK PICKER. IT'S A HORRIBLE ENVIRONMENT IF YOU HAVE A BIG-PICTURE VIEW AND JUST ARE THROWING MONEY INTO THE MARKET, I THINK. >> YOU REALLY DON'T THINK THIS IS A GOOD TIME, BEFORE THIS REPORT, TO OWN APPLE? KIND OF -- RECOMMENDING PEOPLE STEER CLEAR. SO DID IT SURPRISE YOU -- IS IT THE MOVE IN THE STOCK THAT SURPRISES YOU OR SOMETHING IN THE RESULTS THAT SURPRISES YOU MORE? >> WELL, I MEAN, YOU KIND OF HAD A HINT IT MIGHT NOT GO SO POORLY WHEN YOU SAW BIG SUPPLIERS TO APPLE MASSIVELY CUT THEIR FORECASTS. APPLE ACTUALLY DIDN'T BUDGE. SO NUMBERS CAME DOWN TREMENDOUSLY. STOCK CLOBBERED. OVER 50% OF REVENUE FROM APPLE. STOCK HIT AGAIN. APPLE DIDN'T BUMP EITHER. THAT SORT OF GIVES YOU THE HINT. AS WE MENTIONED EARLIER, RIGHT? STOCKS IN THE NEAR TERM, IT HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH FUNDAMENTALS. IT'S PERCEPTION. THE FACT THAT APPLE MANAGED TO GET TO THE LOWER NUMBERS WITH REVENUES DO YOU, MANAGED TO SAY, HEY, WE THINK FOR THE NEXT QUARTER WE'RE GOING TO SEE LOW SINGLE-DUMP IT GROWTH, THAT ACTUALLY SURPRISED ME. REMEMBER, APPLE SAID THEY WOULD GROW BACK FROM THE MARCH QUARTER
