Hello. Hello. Thanks for joining. My name
is Dan Ariely, and I'm the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and behavioral economics and
we're here today to Discuss this crazy crisis in from a social
science perspective and think a little bit about together about the future. So the plan is to for me to talk for about
30 minutes and then to get the question, so please and ask, and hopefully we'll be able
to get to some of those questions and. Okay, so first of all a little bit about kind of
a Corona crisis through my eyes. So about a month ago, I was very happily at
Duke. Things were closing down but my research lab, the Center for Advanced Einstein was
going strong people working hard. And then I started getting lots of phone calls
at all hours of the night, and mostly from the Israeli Government but little bit from the British
live with from the Brazilian and about the current crisis and the talks became a more
and more intensive and then eventually I realized I can't help from Durham to Israel, so I I
showed up here in Israel. About a month ago and basically been on this
chair for almost a constantly And they're helping different parts of the
government. And I'm telling you this Part, it might be interesting, but partially
because it kind of helps, I think, and help explain the role of social science in all
of this. So when they came initially were the challenge
was how to give instructions in ways that people could basically adhere to them. You know, if we say to people, don't leave
home that's not going to be like there's a limit to how much Money you cannot leave home. And then if you
break the rule ones are you going to keep on breaking if we say don't leave home unless
it's for the supermarket, maybe we get people walking to the supermarket back and forth
all the time. So, so we started thinking about how to Help people get instructions and it was very
clear that the principles were tell people what not to do. But there are people also
wants to do. You can't just leave a gap, a vacuum of what You have to make it look socially acceptable
and socially desirable and indeed we got some campaign to get people to to adhere in general. Things have been successful so far, you know,
Israel has about 15,000 people who are sick and about 1% of
that but hundred and 70 people who sadly passed away, but but there's been a dramatic. crunch on that. And the next challenge was
to think about what to do with the Orthodox community. And the challenge is finding today. Was what to do with the Muslim community and
the Orthodox community was because some of the Jewish holiday, the Muslim community was
because of Ramadan. Saturday and and the rules of religion for
people who believe in God are much above the rules of the state. How do you, how do you
make it happen. It turns out the same principles apply tell
people what not to do give them alternatives, how to pray in a in a different way. How to
do other rituals in way and then make it desirable acceptable. The thing that everybody does.
Okay, so that was kind of step one. Not easy, but that was step one, step two,
was to try and help the education system, all of a sudden education system have to teach
remotely, guess what. Nobody was a prepared for that. And we started
studying what worked better in worse. So we created a study in which we studied the characteristic
of characteristics of each teach And each subject and the particular environment
or teaching from in their home and the material that are using and the students and their Study environment in their parents and other
siblings at home, and we're trying to identify sweet spots. So you can say You know, from all of these combination of
all of these things happen. What are the combinations of teacher, teacher characteristics technology. Subject material students Student, Environments
certain characteristic characteristics of their home and siblings that make things look
better. And we hope next week to have some conclusion to try and figure out how to advise
the education system to move to move forward. And then we learned a very, very sadly. And
that's true for the whole world and the domestic violence is on the rise. Some against women,
a lot against kids and You know, there's, there's, it's, it's unbelievably
painful to to be part of those discussions and to realize that domestic violence is is
increasing. And I'm by, by far, no no expert in this,
but we've basically started creating two approaches. One is for adults and the approach for adult
is recognizing the pressure that they're getting and the stress and how stress gets out and Get them to try and understand and control
their own stress and then for kids. We have a chat bot that checks on them once a week
in all kinds of ways. And then if we see it. There's traces of verbal or physical violence we go more deeply. Into that and there were, of course, lots
of questions about the stimulus package. You know you can give $1 in different ways,
then you might not remember but in 2007 2008 we had to stimulus packages that came from
Bush and from Obama And they were very, very different Bush gave
people a check, and it was a refund check that we got the for taxes and Obama decrease
the taxes, people got so it was a small increment to to the salary. It turns out, none of those
had a big impact on the economy. Bush's approach gave people money back in
a way that they thought it was there was any way. So why spend it right, you could say. Here's a refund check. That's a very different
framing than saying, here's a check the government's money go and spend it and they Obama's plan
had had a very small amount. Of change and you didn't really get people
to to spend more. But anyway, those are two programs. Now we're talking about much bigger
amounts and, of course, is what, what are some ways. To take money and get it out in a way that
would be efficient, of course, the government money is not going to be enough. So we, we have a big drive now to get people
to donate more money to charities. We have a big drive to get people to buy in advance. From companies. Imagine that there's a place
that I like coffee. How about if I would, would spend $500 for the whole year next year
and now prepay for coffee and now that company could get some Money in advance and the liquidity could increase And we're also and tracking a movement in
the country, trying to get an A, an understanding of how many people are moving and not moving
staying at home. Just going out going to grocery stores and
so on. How many people are violating the rules and we created an index, not just for the
whole country but per city. And we're trying to get a city mayors to compete
on those on those index when we originally came out with that index i get lots of calls
from lots of angry mayors and they thought that I'm doing something, you know, against
them personally and It was it was tough to explain to them. That's
just the data. Let's focus on what we could do to help not not NY your last place. And end in we're now trying to come up with
a very complex index. About the cost of the actions to slow down
Corona, right. So, of course, it started by being about saving lives and not reaching
the capacity of the healthcare system. But to other costs, their costs for people
staying at home and their cost of people not doing preventative care you know the number
of colonoscopies and mammograms has has gone down, it does cost
of the fact that people are not afraid of going to hospitals. So, even people with cancer
treatment sometimes don't go. We had a few cases of people that had heart conditions that out of fear stayed at
home and then sadly passed away. How do you take that into account in the calculus and.
And of course, there's the question of economic growth and it costs in general and So anyway, those are the kind of things that
that we're dealing with. Oh, of course, there's a question of how do we get out. Right. What
are the steps to go out again. What are the instruction that we can give people that they
would adhere to. And if we say be home with very limited amount
that's relatively easy simple instructions to follow, relatively speaking. But if we say, You're free to go. Just please
keep social distances and on go to too many places now the the opportunities for messing
up is going to be Is going to be very, very high. And so those
are some of the projects that we're trying to deal with and You know it's it's it's very clear how needed
social sciences. It's true that you know this is mostly about, you know, biology, and we're
trying to understand the virus and what are its characteristics and how do we create a
vaccination medication. What's the role of antibodies. Lots of models
of epidemiology, but at the end of the day. We have people and people have to change behavior
and we have to take into account in the models that we do, how do we get people to actually
change behavior. And anyway, so that's that's my life. Maybe I'll say one more thing, and You know, my, my, my regular research Ducati
at the Center for Advanced hindsight, we mostly study financial decision making and health. And we study financial decision making off
the median and lower how to get people to better use food stamps and pay back loans
and not to spend too much and create emergency savings. And health. How do we get people to exercise,
take the medication. Sleep better And in generally kind of in a regular month
I go through ups and downs, I feel that we're making some progress. And then I feel that bureaucracies against us and I feel that and
you know there are too many people who are kind of just needed a new not able to help
everybody. And then I feel yes we are making progress, and there's like a cycle of helpfulness and feeling of success and less
and and it goes on and and now in Quran a time. It's basically the same thing. It's
only happens, you know, three times a day, and We're feeling making some strides. Things
are going back just to the magnitude of the of the problem is is tremendous and the The barriers that are standing in our way
are amazing. This is going to be a very, very tough very, very tough period and to see people
who are in already and losing their home and losing their businesses and to get people
who are so lonely. Just incredible In Israel, we had a memorial day and let's
sorry, we'll have him Morial day we had the moral day for the Holocaust. Victims and a few days ago and will have the
moral day for all the soldiers who died in the country and on Tuesday, and they're not
going to allow family members to go to the graves of their loved ones. What a terrible Challenge one, one of many right so many of
them okay so complex, difficult Very good for social scientists in some, in
some ways, my My first book predictably irrational came
out in the beginning of 2008 exactly when the financial crisis was hitting and it was
a real I didn't time it, of course, but it was a really good time. For a book about irrationality. And I said,
hey, people are rational and here the financial crisis came to to pick it up. I don't think
I needed the Quran, the virus to Gather more evidence that people are irrational,
but you certainly see see a lot. Okay, so And I want, I want to share Some, some more. Thoughts thoughts with you. And There's one more project. I didn't tell you
about You know, for a long time. We have been trying
to study work from home. If people work from home, they don't need to drive it could save
them time. This could save Resource for the environment, reduce traffic
jams all kinds of good things. But guess what we had a really hard time Getting people to do this experiment with
us, we would go to an employer and say, Hey, let's do a study of getting people to work
from home for a month. And people said, You must be kidding me. No way that I can do that.
Well, guess what. We got that experiment. It's not the perfect
experiment and people now working with kids at home, and so on. But still we got people
that we never thought would work from home to work from home, and it's a good opportunity
to To study this. So if you have some time, please
take the study. It's a little long but I think you'll learn a lot from it and we will learn A lot from it. I think will will really you
the link after we're finished today and and if you can share it around, because we're
trying to get a very large sample to understand this issue. Okay, so, and let me say, kind
of a few general things about how I think we We got here and some things to think about.
So why did it take us a while to to act. And there are many reasons for that. One of
them is that viruses are invisible enemy. We don't see it. And we used to thinking about
viruses and not being that afraid. Right. We all have experience of Having viruses before and the moment. Something
is called the virus, we put in the category of other viruses and we say, hey, we've had
this before we don't see it. Will not that that the phrase, if it had a
different name right. Just imagine it was not called the virus, if it had a different
name, maybe we would have been a bit more worried, but the moment it was called the
virus. We have a mental model of what viruses are
and and having a high mortality rate from a virus is not part of our mental model. There's also the issue of small probability
events. Think back to the time when you were still
driving and think about something like texting and driving Imagine that you think that the probability
of texting and driving and something bad happened is about 1% and one day you take a risk and
you text while driving and nothing bad happened it's only 1% But at the end of these texting and driving,
do you say to yourself, all it was 1% chance it's still 1% know You basically say, oh, I have experienced
this as being less dangerous I've experienced this is nothing but it happened. And now you
update Your probability and maybe you think it's
all point nine. So basically when things are heading low probability events every time
we experience something and we don't learn a negative lesson we don't get hit by another
car we get the wrong impression that you'd say, for then we thought In the beginning, and of course with viruses.
I was in New York City, when in the various happened. I must have met people who are sick. I don't
think I got I got sick. We we experience things in a way that that make it harder for us to
to learn about things being risky when it's a small probability event. And then of course it also takes a while.
Right. So you could get sick. Nothing happened. And nothing happened for a while and therefore
we we misbehave. So that's kind of them. We can talk more about that, but that's kind
of topic. Number one about why is it difficult to react very urgently to things like a virus.
And the second thing is about the political perspective and here too. I have a long list
of of Factors that I think are are contributing But am Let me, let me kind of Focus on a couple of them. In the coronavirus we have fight for the in
the coronavirus we've all been recruited and we are spending a tremendous amount of time
and effort to save lives. And in one way to ask is, Is this consistent
with what we have been doing all the time. So, for example, the, the best estimates we
have is that to save a life of a child from malaria. It costs about $3,400 have we been
interested in doing that. I know there are lots of kids who are dying
from malaria and there's lots of ways to save life by fighting infections in hospitals,
for example, or reducing obesity or reducing blood pressure problems, there's lots of things
that we do. And if I all of a sudden gave you A trillion Dollars and I say, go ahead and improve healthcare,
you would find lots of ways to increase and health span, you would get people to live
much longer in all kinds of ways. But, but if you think about our history. We
didn't seem to care that much. In fact, all the people in society said very, very sad
to say so. But People did not rush to save them within see
lots of out for attention and wanting to spend more money and so on. Clearly the Quran time is something very different.
If you just looked at the Quran, a time when you were an economist. And you would say Let me figure out how much people care about
the lives of people who are in high risk and a relatively old age, you would say, oh my
goodness, people are just care a lot about that if you look at the year ago and you say,
how much do people care, you would say not that much. So what has happened here. Why, why is it
that we show so much care now and did not so much care before I think it's about the
nature of Khurana In psychology. There's something called the
identifiable victim effect. And if you remember there was a baby, Jessica. Some of you might
remember her baby Jessica fell too well. She was stuck there for a while. It was very sad. Eventually they released her the person who
released her gut his picture. He was a fireman on on the cover of Time Magazine. It was covered
in all the TV stations, baby. Jessica, she must be in
her early 20s. These days, he got lots of donation, but she also got more till TV coverage
in Rwanda and therefore put together. So there was something about baby Jessica
to get us to care and give her money by the way they gave her money after she was out
already, which is nice thing to do, but it didn't solve the problem. On the other hand, there are lots of tragedies
that we don't seem to care about and in the analysis of the baby Jessica effect was the
identifiable victim effect you identify one person your hearts go to them and you want
and you want to save them. Or think about another example. Imagine that
you walk over a bridge, you walk over a bridge you're on your way to a job interview. And you have a new suit and new tie in new
socks and underwear and new shoes and everything is doing, you're going for your dream Interview.
Interview for your dream job. Absolutely amazing job and you walk over this
bridge and all of a sudden you hear a cry and you look over the side of the bridge and You see a baby about to to draw And you know that if you'll jump and save
the baby, you'll not get your, your job. Now the rational economists would say go and get
your job. And promise to donate 10% of your income to
save babies with 10% of your income, you'll save much more than saving one baby, you'll
get your dream job. And you'll save lots of babies, that's a better outcome. But of course, None of us can can think this way. Right,
it's it's science sounds cruel in. You mean this this is called rational perspective. But, but it does show that sometimes our actions
are designed to satisfy our emotion and not to make The optimal global solution, because of course
babies die all the time and for very small effort we can usually save a life or improve
life. And we usually don't do it. So, something happened with the corona. It
was the idea that the whole world was surrounded by it was in the news. We were interested
in this, we had the image of people dying without ventilators, and that they're very, very tough
image. So, all kinds of things happen. And as a consequence, we are pulling an amazing
amount of resource into this, into this issue, not necessarily In the most rational way. And I also added some other factors here,
but the last one is this consistency by this Inconsistency bias is our desire to do repeat
our actions. We basically don't like to admit when we're
wrong. And it means that once we get the particular
action going we're liking to keep on with the same the same action. Mentioned opportunity cost. I want to show
you two quotes from opportunity costs. The first one says my budget includes the largest
increase in defense spending in two decades. Because, because while the price of freedom
and security is high, it is never too high. Whatever it costs to defend our to defend
our country. We will pay. That's, that's one approach. The second approach and I'm trying to my screen
is off the screen. The second approach says the world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its labor, the
genius of its scientist, the hopes of children, the cost of one modern heavy bomber is this And modern brick schools in more than 30 cities,
it is to electric power plants it serving a town of 60,000 We pay for a single fighter with a half a
million bushel of wheat, we pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have house
more than 1000 people This is not a way of life at all. It is humanity
hanging from across fine. Now you might say maybe the person that gave the quote on the
left, understand the military. Maybe the person who understand the one on
the right. It doesn't understand anything about the military. But the reality is that
the person that gave us a quote on the left. Is George Bush who took lots of pictures in
the military and the one on the right was a Eisenhower, who was certainly Very knowledgeable about today, the military,
but but the point is that when we do make when we do make decisions. They have opportunity
costs. And one of the things we haven't really considered very carefully and is is the opportunity
cost of the actions that were taking Opportunity. Yes, I'm just going to jump in
and ask you if you can advance your slides, we're only seeing still the first title slide. Really. Yep. Sorry, I see the new ones. Um, can you try on sharing and then re sharing
your screen. Okay, stop share And then let's be sure you miss such good
slides. And let, let me see. So maybe, maybe I'll
show the whole the whole slide you see it now. Yes, thank you. And in one in now. Yes. Okay. So, you missed a lot of things.
So it will send you the slides later but but we had topics that we covered and this is
the Okay. There's one more topic I want to cover, which
is something called learned helplessness and maybe I'll stop sharing for a second and get
bigger on your screen. And there's no question that there's a lot
of anxiety around these days. And there was a very famous and disturbing study about learned
helplessness in it study There were two dogs dog in one in room one
number one got light and a few seconds later electrical shock light electrical shock light
electrical shock and random times the light would come and then in a fixed time after
that the electrical shock. The second dog just got the electrical shock
the same time his dog. Number one, just got the electrical shocks, but there was no warning. Now, think about the difference between those
two cases one has a predictable amount of pain when it's coming in. One has unpredictable
amount of pain, what, what's happened And then they moved both of those dogs into
a new environment. One of the time it was a room with the partition and from time to
time, a bell camp. And if the dog stays in their side of the
partition. They got electrical shock and if they jumped over the partition they escaped. The first dog. The dog that had the predictable
life walked around got some electrical shocks explore their environment and figure out at
some point that if jumping would Get them over the electrical shock WOULD ELIMINATE
THE SECOND DOG basically was just whimpering the second dog just later on the floor. Second
have just lost all hope that they can do something in
the world. And that's, that's the term learned helplessness and. And the idea is that we
have a tremendous amount of resilience But to have that amount of resilience. We
have to understand when things are coming. We have to get instructions are clear. We have to have a vision for the future. We
can stand the electrical shock if we know when and why and so on. And part of the challenge
of these period is that things are so unclear right so unclear what instructions are coming,
where they're coming from. You know, if you think about what what the
leadership is saying it's very hard to be it to be consistent and understand understand
this. Okay, and And now I want to move to The next topic and I want to talk a little
bit about I'm hoping you can see my screen. Yes. Okay. So I want us to think a little bit about what
things are going to stay and what things will will not So, so imagine. Imagine the following case.
Imagine there's a range of behaviors and it includes everything all the things that we
do. And we had all kinds of behaviors in before
Corona time and we had going out to eat and coffee and going for vacation and we had going
to work and kids going to school. We had a large range of behaviors. And then during current time we had some of
those behaviors. Right. Some of the before Corona behavior state and some new ones came,
for example, staying late and watching Netflix. And that's and that's this period now. And
then there's going to be kind of in my mind to two important period. The first one I call the day after in brackets
because this is not really the day after its during Khurana times as we start to understand
relax live with Corona for a while and we don't know how long it will be. But let's
say it's a it's a year. And then, and then we have the time. After
that, which I called the real day after, and I separate into two three components y x and
z. And the question is, what kind of behaviors, will we will we have so so here's kind of
the idea, the idea is that During quarantine or heavy, heavy restrictions.
This is a now. The day after his restrictions are going to
be slowly lifted and we're going to to change in all kinds of ways. And then at some point.
They'll tell us that we don't need to worry anymore and then there'll be kind of three
types of behaviors. There'll be behaviors like why the top The top one, which will basically the habits
will go back to normal. They would increase and change. And I think TV watching will be
like that. Maybe we'll even watch more TV than we did before corona. And there'll be some things that will stay
the same. They will not change when the corona. Threat would go away and you'll be some things
that will disappear. And I kind of gave a scale here from TV watching
to Disneyland. I'm not Hoping that this would go away. But if you
think about discipline is a category. It's an activity that relies on lots of people
to come together in small proximity and the longer The longer Khurana crisis is with us, the
less and less likely that that would be. And I don't know about you, but When I when I watch a movie or something and
I see two strangers hard kind of my first reaction is, Oh, be careful. It's almost like
a horror movie to see his this thing happening. I think it'll take a long time to do So, so we will have these three period. Now
I wrote here on the bottom is is does it have to have to be this way. And I think the answer
is no. And there are things we can do to shape habits.
So, you know, if we take Khurana days and the day after without any effort. I think
will certainly get more TV after that will get Less Reading books, it will get more looking at
the news, very quickly, many times a day. There'll be all kinds of things will get will
get less And less sleep less exercise all kinds of
things like that but but I don't think it has to be this way. I think we can try to
create A better habits and and that's, that's one
of the hopes of the Quran, a time because we have time now we have some some amount
of time unknown exactly how much to either get sucked into bad habits or Get into into better habits. So, for example,
for our education system here we're recommending that kids and each day by reading a book in
bed. Right, that's, that's a good habit to get
to get going. On the other hand, if you didn't do that. And it would be Tick tock. That would
fill the time there's a good chance it would keep on going after that we try to get all
kids to Write something in the diary. Every morning, because if they do that, there's
a good chance that this habit will stay. And if they don't, this it will likely go away. And and these habits are for all of us. Right.
I'm sure we all have list of things, who would like to change in our lives. And sleep meditation eating exercise spending
time with loved ones, all kinds of things like that. And we can we can actually think
about how do we deal with this in period one and then pure too so that we have good habits
in periods in period three. Okay. I'm going to skip the issue about employee
motivation goodwill and loyalty and maybe we'll do it in another time and two last points. You know, we have been designing systems basically
for resilience. Oops, I need to figure out how to how to do this. Okay. We have basically been designing a system
for for for efficiency right with design system for efficiency, I'm An ideal airline is an airline with the planes
land get refueled people get out food is being put in any takes up again and I did hospital
is one that has zero extra capacity all the beds are being used in a deal business is
a business where the Raw material comes in gets used and get shipped
out all in real time basically cut the fat out That's the opposite. Of resilience, right, because if you have
a system that is perfectly tuned, it's perfect when everything is perfect. But when something is go goes wrong, then
the system can get into real trouble. So we've been really good at building system for efficiency
and almost no system for resilience and the current crisis. I think should let us rethink
about it. By the way, the only system that we have that
is not truly built for efficiency. Is the military, right, the military. You
don't say show me your exact needs right now. Now, the military is all about planning for
all kinds of scenarios and being ready for all kinds of things you don't say let's make
it efficient, you say, let's be prepared for a large range of things. And then, and then the very last thing I want
to say is that It for me that the maybe the most bright side
of this crisis is that there's never been a time in modern history when it is so clear
that our future is both fragile and that we're so connected, you know, different countries,
right, we can think of self is not being aligned Khurana came and said, No, you're all in the
same in the same boat right if the Chinese have a bad relationship with the Americans,
the next In fact, the next virus. If it comes from
China. Again, they will not report it in the same we're all in it together. And not only are we all in it together from
from different countries, we're all in it together within a country. Imagine the situation in which 10% of the people don't pay taxes, we have
the US 10% of the people don't pay taxes we have 10% less taxes. That's, that's it. Right.
It's a linear every person who doesn't pay taxes. We have less less taxes. What about the world in which 10% of the people
don't adhere to the rules of social distancing if you feeling sick isolate yourself and so
on. Their effect is not 10% they can destroy everything
for everybody. Right. You can have. And we've seen that right we've seen super spreaders
we've seen super spread took the Corona from Italy to Argentina, and we've
seen super spreaders in all kinds of places. You don't need a lot of them. You can you
need a few people who just seems to be walking A lot and don't care. And we've also seen
people with low income who don't feel they have a choice. So even though they have symptoms
they Go to work and in and meet people. So, so
for me it's a important proof of how connected we are right. If we don't take care of everybody,
we're all going to pay a price for that and maybe it's a good lesson for how we continue
to run Our lives. So with this, I will stop. I will
stop here and I will take questions, comments, concerns. Okay, so, so one question that I have here
from poll Is a does shared adversity tend to make us
kinder or more selfish. Very, very good question. So we sadly. A don't work out very well when
we are afraid right when we're afraid. Our first instinct is survival. It's not caring
about others. So show the diversity is very good. If we're not individually stressed,
so If you look at how we're functioning as a
university right you know we are, I mean it's amazing, it's just Just beautiful the camaraderie, the caring,
the way people participate that people volunteer. I mean, it's just, it's just an amazing thing
now. Is it is it difficult time absolute difficult
time a people's research will stop the education was stopped lots of things were stopped, but
nobody feels individually threat right nobody feels that They will not have food on the table and Next week so so in conditions of adversity
without threat adversity is incredibly helpful. But, but take other cases into account. If
you've seen, you know, we see it from from tracking people here in Israel. But you see,
it also from the Google Trends. In the US, and adherence to the corona rules
are very much based on a level of income and social economic status. Very, very tough for
some people. So if you're not sure, or you saw the people
who are delivering food and things from Amazon about a how unhappy. They are they are not
feeling camaraderie, they are feeling extra stressed and and this is not the right case
for camaraderie. This is, by the way, another another reason
to be more clear about the stimulus package. Right. So if you have people who are dramatically
stressed. That's not the time to To create a camaraderie. So, and I mentioned
kind of learned helplessness, but communicating, you know, the government is here will support
each other. How will this work is is incredibly, incredibly important. I don't know. I don't know if you saw a whole
New Zealand and they'll be the coronavirus but but their prime minister is is amazing,
right. She stands you communicate. You tell them where they're going, lays out the plan. Promises people that if they can't pay rent.
They'll help them. I mean, very much eliminating this survival needs and laying off the plan.
So no survival need and a plan for action. Which is which is incredibly important to
feel that you have some some agency. Okay. Okay, next question. If, if I were hired to
run a campaign to encourage American to donate a stimulus relief check to charity. How would
you design it. Okay, so first of all, we, we are doing something like that. But I'll tell you how how I would do it. And
the first thing that that I would do is I would get people to reflect on how lucky they
are Right, because to basically be willing to
take something from us and give it to somebody else we need to reflect on that. So I would Ask people on the scale to say how how lucky
you are. And the reason we do that is that answering questions is often the best way
to get people to reflect on something. So if I come to you. This was Carol, if I
can say Carol. You're really lucky. It's not the same. If I say Carol. How lucky are you On the range of all the people in the world
who suffered the corona. That would be more impactful. So I would get that And then I would ask you to estimate the devastation
of the Quran, I would say, how many people do you think are going to lose their job.
And how many people are going to lose their homes and I will ask you two or three questions
to to understand the magnitude Of devastation. And then I would ask you to pre commit I would not wait until you receive the check.
Because if you receive the check and you deposited. It's going to be Harder. But if you commit beforehand that
that will be easier. By the way, we also see that, for example, we've been doing campaigns,
trying to get Americans to pre commit to save Their tax rebate. And if you get people to do it early on and
promise they save much more than if you wait until they get their, their tax rebate him. A check. And then the other thing is I would
make it a socially desirable and normative and I don't mean normative in economic sense.
I mean, that's the norm. That's what people should should do so. For example, in Israel when we've been trying
to get people to donate the stimulus check We got lots of opinion leaders to basically
lead with that right and and they do it in a way that doesn't say everybody should do
it because not everybody should do it, but they say if you have it. You know, we need, we need to help each other
and it comes from all kinds of people who are opinion, opinion leaders. Okay. Next question, and fear plays a big factor
in getting people to follow the rules, but then the opposite force is the need to socialize
and earning a mental, physical fitness. How long can you drive the behavior. So, Fear is a tough emotions in general, get invoked
in us and then they dissipate. Even the good ones right emotions don't last
very, very long in the case of fear. I think all kinds of governments are trying to use
fear to get people to adhere to some rules. But then fear doesn't work for very long. And ironically, if the field worked and people
stayed more in social distance. Then they look around them and they say it wasn't that
bad. Why did they frighten me so much. Right. And in fear. A is not a sustainable
long term behavior and be it's not A recipe for adherence in what I call the
day after case. So fear is very good to stay at home. Don't do anything, stay at home,
stay at home, stay at home. Funeral is very good for that if you start
to tell people, you know, go to work and come back the go to the supermarket but try to
wear a mask and Don't try and do too much gathering. That's
not fear right that's it that's fear is more a approach avoidance doing don't do And what we need is to move quite quickly
to something more more nuanced than that. And because we use fear. It's a little harder
to move to To something else and and I see here, right
there, people are used to seeing the numbers. Here's the number of the dead. And here's
the number of the people who are seeking Those two numbers can best stay flat. They
can never get better. Right, it's cumulative numbers, these are
numbers are designed to create fear if you wanted to create fear show the cumulative
number of people who have been dying. If you did not want to show fear you would
show the number of people who are dying from Khurana compared to the people who die in
a general In an average a week, right, that would that
would be very different. And you would show that to people who've been tested positive compared to the number of
people you've tested. I mean, there's lots of things to to show what you would show what
happened the last week, not cumulative the whole time. But, but, yes, we're, we're getting people
used, I think, to too much fear and that will make the transition to Living with Corona tougher and I mostly worried
about the people that Feel that there are high risk populations
we pumped into them. The fear we pop the few to also society and how are they going to
leave the home right how, what, what's the next step in, could they, could they psychologically
and leave home after being so so afraid. So I do worry about it. Okay, the next question. Referral from Chile. A despite globalization,
a While why we couldn't organized a coordinated
response and why is it so irrational. The first step it taken to stop the virus getting
out of China. Yeah, so, so First of all, you know, our research center
is called the Center for Advanced hindsight, because we want to remind ourselves that In hindsight, everything is simpler than,
than in foresight. You know, you could have said let's let's
realize that one day we'll have another virus and let's prepare for that. But there's lots
of things to prepare for We need to prepare for a terror attacks, we
need to prepare for cyber attacks. I mean, there's lots of things to prepare for and
and I understand that that we can be prepared for everything and You know, maybe we should have prepared for
it. But, but we can't say we should have prepared for this because there's a lot of things that
we That we need to prepare for. I'm not sure
that's the highest likelihood to have happen but but the question of why couldn't we work
together. It's because we just don't You know, I tried from time to time to spend
time in the UN and help them on the behavioral team and sometimes I meet the delegates and
we just don't we just don't work together. It's, it's, it's heartbreaking. But, but we compete. And we don't work together and we often work
against Each other. And You know, science is the only thing that's
sort of a collective collaborative right I have colleagues that I work on projects from
all over the world. But even for science right funding from the
US goes to US scientists and from Europe to European scientists. It's not truly It's more collaborative than anything else,
but it's not a truly collaborative and by the way, I think it's a beautiful hour for
science right you see universities and pharma companies and people are working and
making amazing, amazing progress working very hard. So, so I think it's a science. Most beautiful hour hopefully they'll come
up with something right it's it's a it's it's a gamble. But hopefully it would it would
work out and but but for me, one of the one of the issues is that we, we do have to work
together in a much, much deeper way. So, And and there are conditions to work together.
And one of the conditions is trust. And we don't have that much trust right if you ask
yourself, You know, you're from, you're from Chile,
you know, ask yourself how much people in Peru are trusting the people from Chile, you
know, not so much. Right. You can't. You can't go and do all kinds of things in in one country,
in this particular case, I think they're really angry. That that you call their national drink yours
right, I forgot the name of that. Drink and Pisco Sour Pisco Sour. No, no, I
forgot. Anyway, but But, but, you know, you, there's a lot of
economic Challenges and that creates a level of distrust
that then make it harder to to collaborate. So I think that's why, you know, even though
the UN is not the most functional organization and the World Health Organization might not be getting enough funding
and support and collaboration. I think those things are are crucially important. Okay, so I'm hoping but but on the background
of competition, it's very hard to create this collaboration. And Okay. And another question from Steve is,
I said, you mentioned, I mentioned that super spreaders could potentially set us back but
your example left the as symptomatic carriers, how can we educate people to be careful, even
if they aren't feeling well. Yeah, so I meant to include The symptomatic. And that's really tough.
So imagine, for example, a person Who cross paths with somebody with corona.
So now I hear that I cross paths with somebody with corona, the day before. I have no symptoms. But I really have to go to work. It will I even go to be tested. Maybe I don't
want to be tested, because I don't want to know. You know, Can we can we, and then if I'm tested
and it's up to me to report, maybe I wouldn't report. So you're absolutely right, there's
the question of what do we do with people who just can't afford The two weeks in isolation. Right. And if
you can't afford the two weeks in isolation, maybe you wouldn't be tested. Maybe you would
be tested. You wouldn't tell anybody. And this is a again a public goods question.
So imagine that we took people that were tested positive and we say, you know what, if you
need to go to isolation for two weeks. It's important for us. You might never, you
might not be able to afford it. But for us it's important. So we'll pay you to stay at
home. Just imagine that was the case. Otherwise, how are we expecting people to
stay at home. Can you imagine a person who's the sole breadwinner in the family. If they
don't show up to work, they work on an hourly wages. In all of a sudden you say if you don't work.
Please don't work, but we're not going to pay you and your family will start not going
to work out. So, so it's a further I think an example of
we're all in this together and people who can't obey the rules. It's not because they're
necessarily bad people also some bad people, but We need to figure out if they can't obey the
rules because they don't have the tools. It's important for us that they obey rural let's
let's help them do that. Okay, I'll take last question. From geeky done a. Do you think that our general
trust in stranger is going to be compromised by this pandemic. A. Do you think Do you think if that were to happen, it would
be cause for horizon individual and national security. Okay. So, so I think, you know, we will have better
hygiene right if if for the next three months we'll all wash your hands better something
from that will stay for a long time. Right. We'll get we'll get used to it. I don't know
about you, but I learned all kinds of things about salmon and all kinds of things about
how to wash my hands and I wash my hands. Or frequently and better, and it's a habit.
I don't think about it anymore. It just now happens more frequently in in better and Now, no gig. His question is, would be, would
we be afraid of everybody would we be more afraid of strangers. And I think we would be more afraid of strangers
and everybody is a potential carrier, but the people that we are familiar with. We're
going to have experience with So imagine that I meet you every day and nothing
happened for three months. I basically get trust in you because. I know you and I've seen you in my experience
system tells me you Sigi you shake your hand, you got close to her you in the same elevator,
nothing, nothing happened. But people who are outside of our group, we don't have that
experience as much. So I think that our anxiety. Like you know the day that will go back to
the office, the Duke Is a day in which out see more of the people
I interact with on a daily basis. And after a while, we all realize that nothing bad is
happening. And even if we keep social distance. I don't need to worry that much. Nothing is
happening. If somebody new is coming. It's not that we're
going to say, oh, this is a bad person, but we don't have the same experience with them.
So we'll be at the higher level of alertness for that. And because we don't see
strangers that often, if we saw them often they wouldn't be strangers. I think there
will be a bit more stranger anxiety. And would we then creates More separation in society and i don't know
i don't know but it's it's worse than I thought. And I think you can imagine that happening
where you can also imagine Things about other countries being afraid
of viruses that come with other countries, they will see what rules and would happen.
So that's a that's going to be a complex Okay, so, so, our time is up. I don't want
to finish with this question because it was so depressing. Thank you for it but but depressing.
So, and I want to leave us maybe with a with a with a thought about Where do we stand here. And so we have lots of uncertainty. Right.
Think about kind of all the people in the world from them. We have people who are sick
from them. We have people who are sick and know that they're safe from then we have people
who are very sick from them. We have people who sadly passed away. But, but the amount of unknown is tremendous.
We don't yet know Immunization and A cure. We don't know about herd immunity,
we don't know about the antibody antibodies. There's just so much we don't know, and we'll
find out. And I think the next month. It will be incredibly important to find out lots of
lots of things. But this uncertainty, both the health concern
the economic uncertainty is very, very hard to deal with. What, what can we do The things we can do our things about our
life and take some control. So one thing that helps with control, but please don't do it
is shopping therapy. We do shopping therapy, we feel we're making a change in the world. This coat was here. Now it's mine. This bike
was here. Now it's mine. We make an effort. So that's a way to show control but not advisable
one. There are other ways to show control. start meditating exercising eating better
open Rate rainy day saving account start putting
money into other things have a long term plan for something fun to do. After the corona time try and take control
instead of we're all victims of this global thing but but to be healthy mentally healthy,
we need to take control. Even on small things. And with that, I will
be due for well and I'll say thank you very much for your time and hopefully we'll meet
again in not too long. Bye for now.
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