Could Chinese military conquer Australia? (2019)

previous video showed the initial stages of a war where China would try to reach Australia no outside interference was assumed these three distant Australian Islands would likely find themselves under constant Chinese attacks air war and naval war would rage until one side breaks both sides operate dedicated standoff electronic jamming planes Australian fleet is a known quantity while exact number of Chinese planes is vague as their dual use planes also used for combat the air war outcome would be crucial for the course of the conflict Chinese military is already powerful but with the cold war brewing who knows how capable will it get in the future even years ago germs of the incoming clash with China were visible a very interesting documentary China vs. USA empires at war shows how each side viewed the possibility of a future conflict I've watched it on Magellan TV a new type of documentary streaming service which is sponsoring this video it was founded by filmmakers their producers and curators bring together premium content I personally like history technology and warfare stuff but you can find quality videos on a bunch of other themes like the nature culture or various biographies the Empire is at war Deco struck me as a bad omen of things to come other documentaries like the Titans of war talking about tank evolution were also in depth yet accessible streams featuring no ads and you can use the service on your TV laptop or phone Bing coves viewers get a special offer to just go to Magellan tv.com slash becomes battlegrounds and get a one-month free membership trial check it out let us get back to the air war down under Australia would likely enjoy greater Raider coverage not just due to their ODH Raiders but the surface Raiders on and around outer islands as well as the AWACS like planes while Chinese fleet is much larger on paper their persistence would be miniscule of de listed ones only the larger for illusion based planes have the reach to stay over Christmas island for a few hours it was all mean Chinese might fare worse in situational awareness over the western islands and air combat might incur greater losses for the Chinese despite the relatively advanced fighter jets they would send to battle the Australian f-18s Australia would likely be able to put thousands of troops on those islands and keep the islands restocked but the surface fleet is likely to suffer China would use its naval age six bombers to perform maritime strikes aided by their long-range radar planes it might not be enough for both Islands though Chinese assault and Christmas Island would thus have to be performed without ships meaning with paratroopers only they could only hope the missile barrage would neutralize Aussie defenses enough so the power op succeeds Chinese airborne Corp is pretty big but it's limited here by not being able to use its medium class planes but Australia lacks proper ground air defenses completely it has a single air defence unit armed with fairly short range systems so whatever ship survived Chinese attacks and whatever planes managed to be in the air during the pair drops will be defending the skies which may initially be some but Chinese could afford to repeat their attacks several times not actually sending the transports until they thin out the defenders since the islands are small putting 10,000 troops for defence on them is out of the question that would only lead to numerous deaths due to target density while Chinese missiles fall all around plus 10,000 defenders per Island means there would be barely any experienced troops left defending mainland Australia at the same time the Eastern Front would be perhaps under even bigger pressure the Norfolk Island would be very much under siege but the Chinese force composition would be different their island is slightly closer to Australia and China would have fewer planes basically they would only have their single carrier which could serve for several months before having to return home but it would be there close by so actual persistence of Chinese planes over target might be comparable to what Australia can send from that Island Chinese carrier jets are weaker than Australian super coordinates roughly as capable as Australian earlier legacy foreign fleet Chinese would enjoy some pretty good radar coverage though with numerous ships and their radars as well as it doesn't helicopter based aerial early warning units big Chinese advantage there would indeed be their Navy Chinese would likely send whatever they can to that front Chinese fleet is pretty big but the trip they would make is also big they would spend some two weeks in one-way transit alone leaving few months on station and they would need to be resupplied as they reach Papua New Guinea but Chinese resupply fleet has been gaining ships in recent decades their sole carrier has enough range to operate for some time before being refueled their other ships would usually require two or so refueling spur deployment still even with all the afib II assault fleet and submarines the Chinese would have enough supply ships to serve them close to Australia conventional submarines would take their time though going on average just seven knots they would need three to four weeks just to get to the battle theater but they're important enough so Chinese would likely wait for them to begin their mission parked around Norfolk Island they would force Australians to use a lot of their aerial anti-submarine assets and would endanger us his ships protecting the island eventually enabling Chinese fleet of air defense destroyers to cut off the island from Australia and finally facilitate Chinese invasion of the island of course all that would come at a steep cost to Chinese many ships possibly a few dozen would be lost in the effort by the time Australian Air Force isn't a factor anymore but at the same time after half a year or more Australian Navy would be all but destroyed in the effort to deny those stepping-stone Islands to China its Air Force would probably be huffed and it's stock of long reach cruise missiles would be depleted the reason for all this island hopping instead of landing near Sydney right away is that even the big Chinese Navy can't perform Normandy style mast landing so far away from China whole Chinese assault fleet is still insufficient for a single wave attack on Aussie mainland a single cycle of Chinese ships going to Australia and returning home for a fresh load would take three to four weeks depending on the route and exact point of landing the still limits landings to a fairly small part of Australian northeastern coast even if Chinese managed to have almost entire of the landing fleet available at start average ability of the ships through such multi-month campaign of going back and forth would drop without the taken port most of those landing ships would be ferrying supplies for existing troops rather than fresh forces now let us look at what could opposed them regular troops shown our professionals active reserves are troops serving and training part-time roughly equal to US National Guard and standby reservists don't train much and feature limited readiness for comparison Chinese Marines and paratroopers would be among the more elite parts of their army each side would have certain issues to overcome Australia would have to have forces defending at least 2,000 miles of coastline spreading those forces might not be prudent in such a case even though with mass mobilization Australia would unlikely add a few tens or hundreds of thousands of lightly armed troops acts civilians with little experience having bigger force groups farther away from the shore at certain points might be the way to go because it's unlikely Chinese landing would be a complete surprise but with smaller islands taken first China would slowly bring in the frontline to Australia eventually China is likely to win control over the three outer islands and endanger Australian mainland from several sides Australia would by that point be pretty much mobilized that means the initial tens of thousands of soldiers would be augmented by roughly five to ten percent of the entire population probably closer to five percent as ten percent was achieved only by few countries back when nationalistic spirit was high during World War two great majority of those troops will however be very lightly armed Australia would surely somehow by assault rifles and basic equipment from the black market but getting larger and more complex equipment takes time in no allies environment of the scenario where each purchase goes through the foreign manufacturers rather than through foreign government China would have an upper hand there with their military receiving domestic made weapons but China would not be able to enforce a blockade even if it held those outer islands and turned them into temporary basis for some of their ships Australia is simply too large to be surrounded by a blockade and there are too many commercial ships passing through the air to inspect them and block them without pissing off most of the third-party countries time would work in Chinese favor though with those outer islands taken Chinese could construct forts on them and use commercial grade shipping to haul in supplies and arms on a large scale using upwards of 20 large RORO ships after 12 to 18 months Chinese might be ready for the second stage of their invasion threatening the beaches of mainland Australia even with over a million soldiers covering all the areas would be impossible Chinese invasion would by that point also include a better part of their total land forces various militia and reservists would also likely be mobilized as Chinese bring in fresh planes and ships and base them fairly close Australian Air Force would be on the losing side relegated to occasional harassment strikes by that point Australian Navy would likely be destroyed for the most part China could still choose whether to go for mainland first or to keep slicing away taking some other islands Bathurst Island up in the north and especially Tasmania in the south might be targets of choice for China again putting half a million of Australian soldiers in Tasmania to make sure Chinese invasion fails likely means those soldiers get trapped on the island as Chinese Navy parks itself in between and cuts the island off so the likely outcome is that this mania would get lighter protection and would eventually fall even if it takes some more months and tens of thousands of Chinese casualties with such a large island and its infrastructure China could bite its time and create a force for one final push even if it meant Sydney or Melbourne gets surrounded by Chinese troops two years after start of the hostilities whatever heavy weapons Australia could muster and buy in the meantime would still not be enough compared to what China could steadily land all around the country even if Australia managed to purchase a few times more vehicles than it has today the million new Australian soldiers may get decent training when it comes to individual combat but scaling up training to Brigade sized units which combine heavy arms would likely be lacking as Australia would lag the seasoned officer numbers and heavy systems to take advantage of the combined arms offensives Chinese agent satellite surveillance and there are numerous fleet of drones and recon platforms would mean they would get to choose where to disembark picking areas which are not as heavily defended Chinese air support and fire support edge would then ensure those disembarked troops would stay on the beach and slowly build up their numbers within two years it's likely Australia would be cut up in isolated areas under Australian control and vast swathes of land without any troops so a multi-year war would result in total Chinese victory the scale of two economies and the pose rule of no allies make sure of that but it's also important to note that China would run into great problems in the first year of the conflict even with the no allies rule if a one-year limit is imposed Chinese victory would then be labeled as a minor one due to excessive Chinese casualties and if no other countries are possible such as Indonesia than Chinese options would get severely limited and Aussies could concentrate their advances in one spot in such an event it would take even longer for China to make meaningful gains and remember being calm a talk about hypothetical Wars but only real peace can bring us all together

Channel: Binkov's Battlegrounds

Views: 373,233

Keywords: China vs Australia, Australia v China, China versus Australia, Chinese military, Australian military, Chinese invasion, Chinese navy, Chinese air force, PLA, Australian navy, Australian air force, Chinese ballistic missiles, J-20, F-35

Id: OHsIqPE-lEs

Length: 12min 31sec (751 seconds)

Published: Fri Oct 04 2019