Close Putin ally Shoigu fired as war costs could 'undo the Russian war effort' | Prof. Scott Lucas

inflation is going up they've got problems in terms of supply lines within the country they've got problems with Productions of certain material they are short on key components for example for airplanes bellisa is being brought in because of those problems he's being brought in not because they're economically successful during this war but because economic weakness could undo the Russian war effort all right boyo Mr bellisa now you got the job of trying to fix it all I'm Scott Lucas I'm professor of us and international politics at the Clinton Institute university college Dublin and the founder and editor of EA worldview which is a leading website for news and Analysis on Ukraine Russia Europe Us and other parts of the world so on Sunday evening in an unexpected change and I mean unexpected we had no hint this was going to happen uh Vladimir Putin uh reshuffled uh his senior ministers and one of the headlines of this is that the defense minister Sero Shu who had been Putin's longest serving Minister not just defense minister Minister had been there since 2012 he's been moved out um he's been given a nominal promotion in the sense that there's a he's been named Secretary of the National Security Council that's a place where you put politicians when you're not sure what you're going to do with them but you make him still seem important he's lost you know his executive Authority uh his predecessor by the way Nikolai petrusev who we were looking at as one of Putin's you know key advisers even though he was in this you largely sort of ceremonial post he's gone now they Kim Kremlin said well well you know we'll tell you in a few days what's happened to him we don't know what's happened to patf uh shyu has been sort of sidelined and so you look to who the new defense minister is and uh that's a man named Alexi bellof now again I suspect for many of your uh listeners and viewers as well in formed as they are in Russia bellisa is not going to be a common name now why is he there why is he the defense minister starting point is he's not there because of military experience he has no military experience he's not there because he has experience of being in charge of armed forces as a civilian got none of that he's there because he's an economic official he's been an economic official since 2000 roughly the time that Putin came to power um he's been the economy Minister he's been in charge of Economic Development since 2020 he's been Deputy Prime Minister with economic responsibilities so what does that mean putting in economic official in charge of the defense Ministry it means that the priority here is Russia's wartime economy and running that wartime economy indefinitely and that sort of has two important messages or it knocks back two important messages that the Kremlin and its you know supporting activists including in the UK like to put out so uh the Kremlin and his activist will say oh well you know we're winning we're winning we we we you know the latest is we're in harv in Northeast Ukraine and we've taken maybe about 35 square miles of territory since Friday we are winning um and it's true Russia has made those limited advances in the East but that's not a complete Victory that's not any where close to where Vladimir Putin hoped to be in February 2022 when he thought he could overrun keev in a few weeks rather than Russia thinking it's going to win in the short term it's having to prepare for the long term for the Marathon not a Sprint uh and that gives a lie to the second or the second talking point of the Kremlin and its supporting activist uh Russia's ready to negotiate peace now it wants peace now you know Putin's a nice guy all he wants is just a little piece of Ukraine here a little piece of Ukraine there and we can all have peace well no um there would be a way out for Vladimir Putin probably to say look I I've gained a little bit more territory in the east of Ukraine uh of course I seized some territory in 2022 that I've held on to in the South you know I'm going to negotiate to have those annexations recognized appointing bisoft as head of the economic Ministry means Putin doesn't think he can if Putin had any intention of negotiating he doesn't think he can get that so he's doubling down on his bet that he launched in February 2022 which is I can conquer Ukraine I can make it capitulate and I can take on the countries that support Ukraine whether you're talking about European countries whether you're talking about NATO whether you're talking about the us whether you're talking about countries in other regions such as Asia or North America I can take them on and I can win this thing um clearly I don't think he can but of course Vladimir Putin is not one who's going to be listening to me these days it's not as much as that shu's relationship was soured with Putin it's that shyu uh was in a rivalry with other agencies with other groups uh again your listeners and viewers may remember that in 2023 the threat to shyu came from the Vagner group mercenaries that were being used by the Kremlin almost as canona to try to you know claim some limited gain in eastern Ukraine when the Vagner group leader you have Genny prosan who would later be killed probably on Criminal orders but when pran decided to Stage that rebellion in June 2023 he wanted shyu out and he wanted the head the commander-in-chief of Russia's Armed Forces General gasou out Putin stuck by shyu at that point and he struck a a deal with with Vagner which in effect ended the rebellion and bought him some time till he could decide what to do with pran shu's bigger rivalers however are in agent like the intelligence agencies including the military intelligence agency including the state Security Agency who have been thinking well we have our own way of running this war we have our own little pots of influence dare we say it pots of money that we like to control we don't really trust shyu with that and a few weeks ago uh shu's Deputy one of his Deputy defense ministers um was indicted on corruption charges now for someone to be indicted on corruption charges in Russia among Russian officials uh that's not shocking because uh it's probably easier to be corrupt in that system if you have influence than it is not to be the rare person is the one who's whiter than white but in this case the deputy defense minister had obviously been picked out which is we're g to take this guy down so he's now facing prison time uh another senior official has been indicted arrest Ed I should say alongside him and that was a warning shot to Sho um whoever whoever ordered that indictment but of course the important thing is Putin didn't stand in the way of it Putin didn't come in and say oh no no this Deputy defense minister he's okay you know you know me Vladimir Putin of course I don't take any money I don't have palaces and dacas and relatives on the payroll of course I'm not corrupt but I'm not going to save this guy from the charges that he is you know and and I think that's sort of Mark shu's card in terms of where he was in the defense Ministry um so he's pushed off to the site you can tuck him away along with for example the deputy head of the National Security Council is a guy know Demitri meddev who for people who are kind of old like me you might remember was the Russian president and now they stick him in the National Security Council and he just issues barking mad statements about how Russia's going to take over all of Europe and possibly the world and oh we have nuclear weapons uh to get back to fundament though and that is even though shyu has been pushed off to the site this doesn't end the rivalries uh you know the military intelligence Services the state Security Services Russian commanders all have their interest and that brings up the obvious question when you try to run the military on this economic first footing will defense minister boft succeed now there are reports which come out you know from people who are supporters of him he's honest he's a straight shooter he believes in straight State control of the economy he's not like those other corrupt guys but even if that's true if that's true that he's on can he actually survive the power struggles now that he's on the front line of them um and again you know time will only tell with that what I would add to this because our headline today is all right uh Putin is preparing for the long-term uh War the long-term assault um on Ukraine and supporters Russia has got a very limited window to seize territory in Ukraine for all the dramatic headlines about what has happened with The Limited advances in the denet region and then what's happened since Friday with this offensive into the Harker region across the Russian border their window is really only until substantial us European and other International AIDS reaches Ukraine on the front lines and especially especially if longrange Miss and war planes start to reach Ukraine from the end of June Russia's going to find it much tougher to make any kind of advance so Putin is acting in this window he's acting in this window where he has just been inaugurated for another six-year term he's displayed his authority now he makes these changes um but come the end of June when the eight hits the front lines where does he go next that's going to be a key question I seriously doubt that shyu will make the decision to to Rebel um you first thing is is that this is not a situation where he's been completely cast aside he doesn't you know that that all his financial perks of the office go he still gets a lovely salary uh from being Secretary of the National Security Council he gets all the you know the nice accommodation he gets all the you know the ceremonial uh Awards just for sticking around you know and and there's a huge there's a huge risk I mean one thing that I think some a lot of analysts got wrong about Putin back in 2022 I think we got it right that he wasn't going to run over Ukraine but I think people got it wrong that he was going to fall because of that um Putin is a political Survivor inside Russia and he does that by either going after his enemies and getting rid of them like prosan um or he co-ops them by putting them into places where they have the Privileges of still being within the state system even if they don't really have as much influence um as long as the Russian military uh decides that you know For Better or Worse they're going to stay alongside Putin you know nobody is GNA take a swing in him I think the the defense minister Beyond Vladimir Putin is the most important person in terms of that war effort he's the person who is the liaison as it were for all of those commanders that are out there he's a liaison for all the military production that's going on uh he's the liaison with other ministers who were involved in the war effort you know and and in this case you had someone who had that key position who had been there for such a long time now you get bisoft who comes in who takes on arguably the second most important role in Russia as this Invasion enters its 27th month 28th month I should say and U you know does he with this different background this almost 25 years in economic roles does he get in and have that influence to be able to navigate and to liaz between those different agencies to Lia with Putin to lias with the military commanders we've seen a lot of Russian military commanders come and go now that hasn't been true in the past year it stabilized a bit under General gasimov but there has been turmoil during this Invasion where military commanders kept getting changed uh where other ministers kept getting rotated out um and I again I think I think B's got a very short period of time because I think here's I think the Stinger in the tale of this I mentioned earlier there were two Kremlin lines that have been sort of knocked on their head by this appointment here's the third that's been knocked on its head the the kemin apologist in the west and of course oh our economy isn't affected by this by this uh invas you know we're do look you we've increased our GDP uh We've increased production in certain sector look we're doing fantastic fact of the matter is Russia is is running an overheated economy any decent Economist knows that they are effectively spending with the hope that maybe they can pay it back later inflation is going up they've got problems in terms of supply lines within the country they've got problems with Productions of certain material they are short on key components for example for airplanes bellisa is being brought in because of those problems he's being brought in not because they're economically successful during this war but because economic weakness could undo the Russian war effort all right boyo Mr Bellis off now you got the job of trying to fix it all

Channel: Times Radio

Views: 82,082

Keywords: Frontline, Times Radio, putin, vladimir putin, russia ukraine war, ukraine, ukraine war, sergei shoigu, russia ukraine, putin ukraine, shoigu, russia ukraine news, ukraine russia, russia vs ukraine, ukraine russia war, russia ukraine conflict, ukraine russia news, war in ukraine, putin shoigu, russia vs ukraine war update, putin fires shoigu, sergey shoigu, ukraine vs russia, sergey shoigu in ukraine, ukraine war putin, putin vs shoigu, putin news, putin punishing shoigu

Id: CV7QqhKE3Po

Length: 14min 34sec (874 seconds)

Published: Mon May 13 2024