It's late February earlier this year, and
somewhere above the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, a US Navy P-8 Poseidon aircraft
is conducting routine surveillance of Chinese ships and installations along the group of
remote reefs and man made artificial islands. These islands have been built by China over
the last two decades, as the nation lays claim to what it calls territorial waters- despite
the fact that this territory is hundreds of miles from the Chinese coast and has been
declared illegal by an international court ruling at The Hague. China however rejected the ruling, and continued
to build up its military presence on these faraway islands, reclaiming land from the
ocean and building runways long enough to accommodate Chinese war planes, radar and
radar jamming installations, and missile batteries. With the international community rejecting
China's illegal claim to the area, the United States has routinely engaged in surveillance
and freedom of navigation exercises in order to delegitimize the Chinese claim and to keep
tabs on military developments in the area. Today, a Navy Poseidon spy plane is approaching
one of these artificial islands when from thousands of feet below it, a Chinese navy
destroyer suddenly targets the American plane. Using an extremely powerful military-grade
laser, the destroyer aims straight at the cockpit, sending dazzling light into the aircraft
and temporarily blinding the pilots. Undeterred, the US plane continued its mission,
but for a brief moment the world hung on the edge of its next major war. This incident is incredibly, not a rare case. As US ships and planes have pursued freedom
of navigation exercises and intelligence gathering missions in the area, they have been routinely
intercepted by Chinese ships and planes. But why is this going on, and how could it
lead to World War III? Since 1947 China has laid claim to what it
calls territorial waters within a nine-dash line created by the Chinese government at
the time. This line extends from the southern Chinese
coast almost one thousand miles all the way to the coast of Borneo, and extends to Vietnam
and the Philippines coast as well. The claim is not just illegal, but incredibly
ludicrous- it would be like the United States claiming as territorial waters the entirety
of the Gulf of Mexico all the way to Venezuela. China however is undeterred, and in the early
2000s began a campaign of island building by reclaiming land from the ocean and building
upon pre-existing reefs. This was at first an attempt to legitimize
its claims, as no nation can claim water around an island feature unless that island can be
proven to support human life. China's answer was to shortcut that clause
in international maritime law by creating an island where one didn't exist, and then
setting up troop barracks and flying in supplies. Surrounded by neighbors much weaker than itself,
while the island building actions were condemned, they weren't challenged militarily. The last time a nation had dared to stand
up to China was in 1988, when Vietnamese forces were dispatched to drive away Chinese incursion
into an island within their own economic exclusion zone. A confrontation between Vietnam and the Chinese
led to China killing over 60 Vietnamese marines and destroying three Vietnamese navy ships. China officially occupied the reef and has
held it ever since. A similar incident was in the making later
in 1994 with the Philippines, but the Philippine government, remembering the killing of Vietnamese
marines and sailors by the Chinese, decided to back down and allow China to occupy features
within its own territorial waters. But why does China want all this massive amount
of ocean territory even when it's so far from home? Well, that's because this area of the world
is relatively undeveloped by the gas and oil industry and is home to some of the world's
largest energy reserves that are still relatively untapped, rivaled only by the waters around
the North Pole. The US Energy Information Agency estimates
that there are about 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil
in the area, with a 2012 US geological survey estimating that an additional 160 trillion
cubic feet of natural gas and 12 billion barrels of oil are still undiscovered. This equates to trillions of dollars in untapped
wealth, and China is willing to go to any lengths to ensure it gets it. To add to the economic prize of the region,
the area is also home to some of the world's largest remaining fisheries, and Chinese fishing
vessels are already plundering the territorial waters of the nations that ring the South
China Sea. These fishing vessels have used water cannons
to force the fishing ships of other nations away, and with Chinese navy warships never
far away, so far nobody has bothered to fight back. Only the United States has the military might
to challenge China's illegal claims, and it has done so repeatedly. Undertaking what is internationally known
as freedom of navigation exercises, US ships and planes have routinely moved through waters
that the Chinese military claims as its own around the many artificial islands China has
built in the region. Under normal international law military war
ships of other nations must pass through the territorial water of a sovereign nation as
quickly as possible through the most expedient route possible. The US, in a bid to delegitimize the claims
by China, has instead opted to sail its ships in a zig-zag pattern through the disputed
waters, purposefully not sailing as expeditiously as possible nor taking the most direct route
possible. This places China in a difficult position,
as it can't legitimately claim national sovereignty when the warships of another nation flagrantly
disregard that sovereignty. And unlike the small fleets of Vietnam, Borneo,
Malaysia, the Philippines, or Burma, the US Navy isn't so easily bullied away by Chinese
ships. Instead, China has been forced to respond
with everything short of outright force, often shadowing US ships with its own, or intercepting
US Navy planes on approach to the illegal bases China has built in the region. While so far this hasn't led to a serious
incident, thanks on the part by restraint exercised on both sides, this year's laser-flashing
incident was indicative of China's willingness to push the issue- with potentially catastrophic
results. Had the US pilots been physically looking
in the direction of the laser flash, the high powered beam could have permanently damaged
the vision of the aviators, potentially putting the entire aircraft at risk. So what if then if the US Navy had lost the
entire crew of a P-8 Poseidon? For the US, that would have meant the death
of at least nine American sailors, as each P8 carries mission support crew including
intelligence personnel handling many of the plane's extremely sensitive instruments. With US ships in the region already on high
alert around Chinese installations and ships, the loss of an entire aircraft to direct hostile
action by China could have immediate consequences. In all likelihood, the US would attempt to
use restraint and authorize only a tit-for-tat response, likely targeting and destroying
an expensive, but unmanned Chinese military installation along the disputed island chains. If the Navy P8 had been instead shot down
by an actual Chinese weapon, and not just accidentally downed by blinding the pilots,
the response would be far different. The US faces a very serious choice. If it refuses to take retributive action,
then it threatens to at last fully legitimize Chinese claims to the area, not to mention
lose major international face as it essentially bows to China as the superior Pacific power. This is... unlikely to say the least, and
an actual shootdown of a US plane by Chinese forces would likely lead to an overwhelming
military response. That response however would be limited to
the specific installation the attack originated from, in a bid to allow China the option of
not escalating the conflict into all-out war. China would have to accept the loss of what
would likely be several missile batteries and a radar and communications station, along
with the men manning those resources- or it could choose to escalate the conflict. Escalation would be unlikely however, as simply
put, the US is by far the superior power in the Pacific. While China can threaten US forces with a
large stockpile of ballistic missiles, its navy is simply no match for the firepower
of the US Navy- and most importantly, China has not yet demonstrated that it has the ability
to keep its targeting networks for its ballistic missile forces operational past first-contact
with American forces. Even if somehow China's ballistic missile
kill chains remain intact, an extremely dubious proposition, its total stockpile is limited,
and once those missiles run out it will be up to the Chinese navy to fend off the US's
Pacific forces, which would by then be bolstered by ships from the Atlantic fleet. This is a task it is simply not equipped to
undertake. Further complicating problems for China is
the US's vast fleet of submarines, an asset that is routinely overlooked by military planners
on both sides- and that's something that the US's silent service, as it is known, is more
than happy with. With an extremely limited anti-submarine warfare
capability, China's navy would be decimated by this undersea fleet, and with the vast
majority of its trade coming through the ocean, an economic blockade of China would lead to
catastrophic consequences for the nation. In the end, it's in the best interest of both
sides that no such conflict takes place. While the US would doubtlessly emerge victorious,
it would be a costly victory with the greatest losses the Navy will have endured since World
War II. With China as its greatest trading partner,
the US economy would take a huge hit as well, though unlike China the US could redirect
much commerce elsewhere. Still, a full armed confrontation between
the two nations would have dire consequences for the world, and is not a proposition either
side wants to see. And yet, China continues to build upon and
expand on what detractors have taken to call landlocked aircraft carriers in the South
China Sea, unwilling to obey international law and continuing to bully its neighbors. This leaves not just the fate of the South
Pacific, but the very peace and stability it currently enjoys, hanging in the balance,
and this time it's China whose actions will determine what the history books say about
war in the 21st century. If this scenario seems far-fetched, perhaps
it's not as far off as one might think as an armed confrontation very nearly occurred
between the US and China back in 2001. On April 1st of that year a US navy reconnaissance
aircraft was operating near yet another disputed Chinese encampment, this time on the Parcel
Islands, when it was intercepted by two Chinese J-8 fighters. In a bid to intimidate the Americans, one
of the J-8 pilots undertook two high-speed flybys of the big US plane, but on the third
attempt the pilot completely misjudged his skills and rammed straight into the American
EP-3E. The impact split the J-8 into two pieces,
and severely damaged the American plane which was sent into an uncontrolled dive. Incredibly, the American pilot was able to
recover the aircraft, and severely damaged, it immediately sent a distress signal to a
nearby Chinese airfield. The Chinese ignored 15 distress calls and
finally, the American plane simply decided to land on the Chinese runway regardless of
permission or not, as the pilot did not believe he could keep the plane aloft any longer. The only casualties of this incident was the
Chinese pilot, who was likely crushed to death on impact and unable to eject. Immediately after the incident, and despite
the US releasing flight data from the onboard recorder, China claimed that it was the US
plane which caused the collision, by purposefully turning into the passing Chinese plane. This claim was in short, ludicrous, and largely
ignored by the international community- especially since China never released the flight data
from its own aircraft black box. Things in the South China Sea remain tense,
and a major incident between the two nations is only one provocation away. What happens next is largely in China's hands,
but one thing is for sure- it is unlikely to back down from its claims in the South
China Sea, and sadly, conflict seems likely. Want to learn more about China's ambitions
in the region? Then check out Real Reason Why China Wants
To Expand. Or click this other video instead!
