After listening to what cruise lines are
telling investors they're doing this year, I'm convinced that in 2024 we are going to
be facing five new and unwelcome challenges. But I also have some suggestions on how to
work around these and get ahead of them, including one solution that you
may not even realise is possible. By the way, if you’re new here,
welcome aboard. I’m Gary Bembridge, helping you to get cruising
right – especially for 2024! There is something I’ve seen happening that
is going to be increasingly common in 2024, and that is that people being bumped
off cruises due to overbooking. The practice hit the headlines at the end of
last year when 11 sets of cruisers waiting to board Royal Caribbean’s Quantum of the Seas in
Brisbane, had their vacation dreams shattered. The ship was oversold and there weren't any
cabins for them, so they were sent home. On investigating I found this is happening more
than I had realised but wasn’t making the news as cruisers were being bumped from their cruise
in the run up to their trips - not at the port. What is going on and should you be worried? In 2024 the lines are aiming to have
ships sail full and over capacity. All three major cruising groups (Carnival
Corporation, Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Group) have told investors that
sales in 2024 are way above any previous year, and occupancy of their ships is already
running at 109% capacity and above. For those of you not sure what that means, the
capacity of a ship is measured based on the number of fixed beds, which on average is around double
occupancy per cabin. But many cabins have sofa beds or beds that can be pulled from ceiling
recesses for kids or friends to share cabins. As demand is high, they are overselling using
“guaranteed fares”, which just guarantees a cabin grade not a specific cabin, on the
assumption that people will drop out when final balance payment is due and again between
then and departure and they can take everyone. All the affected cruisers who are being bumped off
cruises have been booking guaranteed fare cabins. Knowing this is an issue for 2024
what can you do to manage your risk? First, consider booking the slightly higher fare where you choose a specific cabin so
you know you will be on the sailing. Second if you have booked a guaranteed fare,
check in as early as possible when it opens online as that often triggers
the cabin allocation process. There is another huge implication of demand being
high and ships sailing fuller than ever. Fares. If you’ve not booked a 2024 cruise yet, you are
likely to be paying more than those that have, and you will find it harder to
get closer to departure deals. Cruise lines use dynamic pricing. This means
as the ship fills up, the prices increase. So unlike in previous years, holding out and booking
late probably will not mean lower or deep deals. I do have some suggestions on how to deal with
this if you’re still looking to book in 2024. First, the highest demand and where ships are
sailing fullest are in the Caribbean and Alaska, regions popular and handy for USA cruisers.
You may find it harder to get deals here. However, I have seen cruise line leaders
asking travel agents to push Europe, both the Mediterranean and Northern Europe as
North American tourists seem to be steering clear of booking 2024 here due to the ongoing and
uncertain situation between Russia and Ukraine, and in the Middle East. There will be more deals. Second, the biggest opportunity in 2024 for
deals will be when final balance payment is due, so if you want to cruise at shorter notice then
be ready 60 or 90 days before sailing. The point when cruise lines know who has dropped
out and what capacity they must fill. I've noticed a lot of activity around that
time, particularly with short flash sales, often advertised to their mailing list and on
social media. But if you got this route move fast. I've had several people contact
me booking for cruises in 2024, seeing those deals and taking time
to think about it overnight and it was gone by the next day. Demand is high
and deals go faster than ever it seems. But high demand and ships sailing full and
over capacity is not all the cruise lines are telling investors they are doing. This
next one will also hit us harder this year. All lines have said they are working hard to
increase the amount of money we spend on board. Norwegian for example, say they’ve
already got passengers on average to spend up to 15% more versus 2019
and see scope to grow that more. What I found fascinating and telling is
they also told investors that the main way they get us to spend more is through
packages. They say passengers that buy packages are spending more than people
that don't and who pay ad-hoc on board. I've often in past videos said that whenever
the cruise line introduces anything, I assume that it's there to
make them more money. So, all those packages like Celebrity “Always
Included”, Holland America “Have It All”, Princess Plus, Norwegian “Free at Sea” all make us
on average spend more than if we did not buy them. But so do the drinks packages, dining
packages, excursion packages and so on. So, my suggestion in 2024 is
when looking at the packages, don't assume you're getting a savings
versus what you would spend if you were buying ad-hoc. I know that I will tend to
spend more as without a package I won’t go to as many speciality dining, have as many
drinks or use as much Wi-fi or whatever. Try and cost it out. For example, use the
drinks package calculators on sites like Cruzely.com and CruiseMummy.co.uk that by
cruise line, you can input the drink amounts you think you will have and, it'll tell you
whether it's worth buying a package or not. Look at the excursion options
and do comparisons of excursions options. I talk about those and how to
do that in recent videos on the topic. Remember the lines are working to get us
to spend more on board than in past years, so be ready for that. But talking
about on board there is a massive change that I don’t think most
passengers have realised is coming. It is one thing I have noticed and is
affecting the way that I choose cruise lines. The lines have told investors they are focusing
on attracting new-to-cruise travellers, increasing their marketing spend
to attract them and looking to cater more for a changing type of cruise
passenger. In practice at the expense of their traditional ones on some lines.
For example, a few weeks back I spotted ads by Holland America pushing their
kids and family fares. A line that used to be seen and was catering for a
more traditional, older couple cruiser. On my last Holland America trip, over
Christmas, there were 400 kids and teens. Totally changing the dynamic of
the line. My Princess cruise in Alaska last summer was full of families versus
historic also couples and older crowd. As 2024 rolls on, you may find a different and evolving vibe and mix from
lines you think you know. Many lines have been launching different
classes and styles of ships and working to attract different cruise passengers for them and
this will start to affect your cruises this year. For example, Celebrity Edge
Class ships (Edge, Apex, Beyond and Ascent) are very different
ships, experience and are attracting a different passenger. I found it’s almost
like going on a different cruise line compared to sailing on their Solstice or
Millennium class ships - as are the guests. So, as you plan what lines to use in 2024 and
beyond take time to check and reflect if the line is still as relevant to your needs, or if
you should be looking elsewhere to get that. But there is some good news wrapped up
within all of this in the next issue. The cruise lines have still committed
to investors to add capacity in 2024, which means nine new ocean cruise
ships for us to try this year. And the good news is it looks like the
delays and disruptions we saw the last two years where most new ship
launches had to be pushed back, from what the lines are telling investors,
these are expected to happen on schedule. Though looking at the line-up, one disappointing
thing stuck me is that almost all continue the trend by lines to go bigger and bigger. And most
are adding family focused features and activities. In 2024 there is Royal Caribbean’s Icon of the Sea with 7,600 passengers and
Utopia of the Seas carrying 6,700. Princess Cruises is launching Sun Princess.
It's a 4,000-passenger ship and a new class called the Sphere Class with a big family focus.
It's introducing a thing called Park Nine, Sea Breeze Ride, rope courses, ship within a
ship. So, it's changing and evolving Princess. Disney Treasure also has 4,000 passengers.
Silversea is launching their second of their Silver Nova class with Silver Ray. Again, it's more passengers than any of their
other ultra-luxury ships carrying 728. Even the luxury line Viking Cruises is
launching a bigger ship called Viking Vela now carry 998 passengers instead
of that usual round about 900. Cunard are also launching a bigger ship with
Queen Anne carrying 3,000 passengers. The other two ships are a second ship
for Explorer Journeys with Explorer II, and Ritz Carlton are launching
their second ship, Ilma. Yes, in 2024 ships are getting bigger and bigger. But, to avoid one of the big mistakes
I saw cruisers make last year, join me over in this video looking
at how to make sure what you do in port this year does not ruin
your cruise. See you over there.
