Buy Now, Wait or Sell The Stock Market This Week? Cathie Wood Doubles Down? [QQQ, SPY, BITCOIN]

hey everybody welcome back to another video in today's video it's our special edition we look at the markets for the week ahead including the stock markets crypto markets and commodities markets and discuss all of the key levels that you should be looking at right now we've also got kathy wood coming out and saying that innovation stocks are in deep value territory i'm not sure if i'd go as far as to say deep value but they definitely are setting up for some nice potential into 2022. everybody isn't looking at them it's the most hated sector of 2021 and we'll be taking a look at that and more in today's video stay tuned guys plenty to discuss see you soon all right guys well let's get started in this video by quickly discussing some of the big market movements that were going on last week in the stock market then we'll get into our crypto and commodities discussion a little later so let's talk about microsoft apple google and netflix all these fang stocks tesla included were moving down and all the technology pretty much across the board was having a bit of a cooler now i believe a lot of this is sector rotation we've seen such strength out of these technology sectors in the last couple of weeks that it's time for them but to come back down and for people to move into others characteristically december actually tends to be relatively weak for a lot of these stocks while things like healthcare tend to do quite well utilities real estate these other stock sectors have better times and we have seen that really flowing through into the markets for the friday trade what was going on well it was pretty much just a movement up early after the first hour of retail trade then we went sideways for the rest of the session but look at the uncharacteristic moves we had the dow jones actually down 1.48 and at the same time the iwm russell 2000 was up 0.92 the smaller caps came back and i think this is a little bit of the starting of rotation possibly into funds like kathy wood was talking about a lot of her sectors a lot of her innovation companies have been brutalized in 2021 she'd have to be going down as one of the worst performing markets or worse performing actual managers for 2021 which is pretty surprising considering the 2020 stellar outcome but this is where stock market traders stock market people get interested because once we start to see a little bit of a turnaround in that particular sector or that innovation area could 2022 bring on one of the bigger years for her fund and her for her returns we'll look at that a little bit later another one that's coming out is ibb biotech look at this biotech actually ended the week the best now i can tell you biotech was sitting at around a two percent gain for 2021. now all of a sudden in literally one week it's put on four point nine percent so is this a movement around in biotech some of the smaller biotech starting to find bases some great technicals happening there and while everyone's freaking out about the market there's actually some really good stuff that's happening and starting to occur in these stocks and in these sectors healthcare also coming out 2.48 gold finally showing some signs of life 2.1 percent and the end of the week actually spelled doom and gloom for all of some of the most popular sectors of 2021 energy the top performing sector of 2021 consumer discretionary horrible in december continues to be horrible in december xlk semiconductors both down three to four percent for the week it's amazing how many things are happening right now in the markets and we will cover as much as we can throughout this time now a lot of people don't believe santa is coming to town we've all been naughty this year it seems like and the market is highly volatile but realistically the most the biggest stat that people use when it comes to the santa claus rally is actually when he comes to town so of course around christmas to the new year and the first couple of days of trade and that's where you get this predominantly positive stat coming out of the santa claus rally will it come this year time will tell we've seen some stabilization even on the friday quadruple witching our event which is when all the options expire at once we howled some key supports that we'll be looking at later and while the vix here has spiked up 21.58 it is quite a lot higher i would have it at a guess and i think a lot of people are looking at it that this may drop off so the vix is struggling here at around this 2250 we've obviously got this support flowing around 18.36 and we know where the vix likes to go eventually while the vic spikes it eventually does come back down and 15 has been one of our big targets so will fear jump out of the market this week and will we start to see some normality coming back in will santa claus come to town i hope so i would like to know whether you guys in the comments think he's coming or not or whether you just think december was the worst month ever already and you're done with it let us know what your comments are in the comments down below let's move over to gold so while the vix is spiking a little bit we have seen some strength out of gold so gold did pretty much what we thought it would it moved from that 1793 breakout it went straight up to the 1810 failed to breach the 1810 and then sold straight back off and not everything is bad here for gold this has been some good days of strength gold and silver finally coming back into some interest but i will say the daily looks a little nasty so we reject that 1810 area this is the first second third and fourth time it's kind of come up and many people will know this is a pin bar or a shooting star style candle a technical weakness candle so if gold is able to breach past this candle now and close above it that's going to be a huge deal do you know how many stop losses are going to be taken out at that zone i can imagine you would know that a lot of people will have shorts in and they'll be trying to sell gold off in the coming week now if it doesn't happen and it has no follow-through then it's going to be potentially a very nice trade should we get through that top resistance over here and close above on the daily just be careful trying to sell this right now the biggest issues with it are multiple moving averages we've got the blue line the 50 exponential moving average the red line the 20 exponential moving average and the 200 simple moving average all sitting on the exact same level at the exact same point that's a little scary guys that means that this will act as probably dynamic support and there's also a trend line around the back plenty of other role reversal areas just like we mentioned the 1793 it's going to be actually tough for the bears to push it right back down but do watch that 1810 plus close because it's going to be significant and we've talked about the next stop for gold is all the way up there into that 1870 1830 into 1870 some big levels that could happen here on this one silver was very similar it reversed from our 2260 zone this is exactly where we expected the resistance to be resistance resistance resistance smack bang into that level and then it started selling off interesting certainly one of those things that we want to be paying attention to and i think with silver and gold again if they breach these top zones there's going to be a lot of follow through for those we'll move over to u.s oil and then we'll start with our stock discussion and this one here just continues to consolidate i mean basically we've missed this level a few times 73 we know is a huge resistance it's bounced off this zone which is 69 50ish and it's about found support it's then breached our downward trend so let's have a look at the downward trend here showing us the first signs of recovery and closed right on the test of that level so forgot for oil traders here black gold traders they're looking literally towards that 73. this is where we want to see strength on the monday session at least no let worse than 69.40 and some kind of buying little lightning bolts on smaller time frames will be what people look for and 73 is fast becoming one of the most important zones to be watching on the market because we've now got four rejections actually five rejections off this area should we close above it what do we all think is going to happen participation that's where you'll think algorithms are going to come into oil i saw goldman sachs they're now claiming 100 oil which is a little bit early for them actually usually they only do that when it gets in the 80s or 90s but they're now starting to come out with 100 oil possible in 2022 i'm not sure if 100 is going to happen but certainly past 73 it will be a big deal to the markets continue to watch that zone a lot of people box this type of stuff up so what we do is we create a rectangle put it there and then look for a breach of that area if possible let's move over to tesla so tesla here going back down it went as low during the day is i think around 909 dollars and then bounced off that area that's very close to the role reversal zone of the previous resistance tesla's still looking weak but it is coming down to a very big buy zone i'm sure many of you were looking at this with interest so the bears got control of this stock this is almost a carbon copy of last time like when you think about it's on a grander scale but it's very very similar huge rally sideways action breached low and it came down then bounced and then of course took a while to get ready again what do we see this time huge rally sideways action breach low will it go further we don't know that one this is certainly a big buy zone for a lot of people and then the next zone that a lot of people will be interested in is going to be this massive trend line that we saw hold up for quite some time so this trend line here held up through about four hold so we'll just get that right there it is and that went through these previous ones these previous supports and that's going to be somewhere around that eight kind of 50 if it keeps coming down so there's a lot of buying pressure that could come back into tesla and we need to remember this is now down from top to bottom around 25 discount so pretty big deal on how much it already moved you're getting the discount now from the 22nd of october almost to this point not too bad for tesla fans that they're looking to invest and find better price levels around that 900 certainly a very interesting point and we know that tesla's earnings now is around 46 days away i believe let's move over to apple now this is where things get a little bit disconcerting with the fang stocks and the bigger tech stocks apple is certainly weakening no matter which chart you look at here it's starting to look well it pretty much is double topping now i don't like to short these kinds of stocks that much i know traders will look to short it and that's fine and everything but i don't really think that is best for everybody because as we know markets are geared towards the upside especially quality stocks now if you're in a bit of a crappy stock and it's moving down and you see a clear clear movement a very clear technical that's a good thing but when you try to short a quality stock it can be quite tough and you've got to be nimble you've got to be fast and you've got to know what you're doing it's not for the uninitiated that's for sure i'm sure a few of you will have some stories about trying to short stocks and getting belted doing so if you do help the community post them in the comments down below don't worry there's no bad stories we've all lost shorting before i have to and it's one of those things where if you do it you've got to be fast you've got to really know what you're doing it's a much harder trade so it's moved through the 4 hour 20 moving average it's sold underneath and for a lot of people they'll be looking at this on something like a one hour or two hour chart and saying okay double tops in look at this little bit of rejection here we've got a long leg doji we've got a rejection candle and they may have even shorted it into the close here for apple does apple need to return well i've argued on the previous video that it's overpriced on fundamentals and i'm not saying it's it's overpriced by a little bit it's overpriced to almost a point which is an all-time high overpricement for apple similar to what we saw in the end of 2020 the start of 2021 and guess what happened during that period the end of 2020 to the start of 21 it basically went sideways for a while it didn't have this big ramp out so this could be a fake out for to trap a lot of retail i feel like apple could come all the way back down here to the 20 moving average on the weekly it doesn't mean it is going there apple's still a quality stock but it's starting to show its signs of double topping and i think when you come into something like a two hour or one hour what most people will be doing is they'll take the distance of this movement here they'll extrapolate that out and they'll be saying okay i'm going to look for apple down to this 162 163 zone for the short and then possibly try to rebuy it around that area maybe we've got some moving average with it maybe they're looking for the daily 20 maybe they're looking for the weekly 20. there's a lot of different ways to play this stock but it is weakening you can tell that on this chart semiconductors also stuck in sideways action nvidia almost looks the exact same way as this this week will be interesting for semiconductors i thought it might have closed or bounced a little bit harder off this zone the daily 50 exponential moving average here this is the entire semiconductor sector and you'll notice that it's just got support support support support a little bit of a rally through the friday session and then sold straight off if it gets underneath the 50 exponential moving average where is the next logical conclusion down here at the 275 that will make a lot of nvidia people excited because they might get a good price on it but it's still on support so what you want to do what you need to be doing for things like the week ahead is saying okay how do we break down this chart is there any trigger levels that we need to look at do we see some idea of maybe strength through like 300 here or a double bottoming pattern on the smaller time frames to show us accumulation again through the 300 might be a key level this is the type of thing you need to do where is the buying support if there is buying support how do we recognize it that's something you want to be bringing into your systems we're just showing you some of the key levels from a support and of course a supply demand area there is a lot of buyers here but if those buyers are weakened and it closes below that's when we start to see those algorithms getting control of the market and move it down let's move over to the arc fund so we saw kathy wood say deep value now that could be partially i'm trying to save my own fund here and get get some value back into it and get people to move around but i do think that this is becoming a narrative and that narrative is that even though tesla remember tesla is a huge part of rk even though it's moving up it's done very very well this year what hasn't happened is the fund has incredibly underperformed so that means that almost all of her other stocks are not doing well and you can tell i think it's only like four or something of the stocks that have done that well in the rk fund so all of her beliefs are have gotten cheaper and i think that that is a big thing when we think about it the innovation stocks were out of control at the beginning i mean you can't have this type of gain without having a nice pullback but look at the pullback now where's the pullback come to 50 fib to the almost the 61.8 fib so the goal almost the golden ratio but a 50 fib of the entire movement up and it's consolidated now for an entire year so 2022 could literally be the year where some of these stocks solidify themselves and start to buy up and you'll notice the weekly there's been an increase in volume recently and there's been quite a lot of buying off this base there's been a lot of transactions going through on the fund which is uncharacteristic because look for a long time there was very little transactions so where will kathy woods funds start to look good well i think it's already looking better than it certainly has from a technical standpoint supports have been found monthly s2 has been found we know that this 103 is now resistance so we could be double bottoming and then of course movement up after that but there's probably double bottoms within double bottoms so even on the friday close take a look at this support found support found closes at resistance an important week for this fund and an important year coming up to solidify whether kathy wood is right or in some ways she may be wrong in terms of two years in a row of underperformance to the market indices i tend to believe that it may be doing better and i think 2020 you will be a good year but overall look at this you can see the support base you can see the resistance and you've got a second resistance afterwards it almost looks like iwm which we'll be taking a look at in just a moment speaking of iwm let's move over to it remember i said it looked the same here's the double bottom potential here's the resistance and just like in that other one we've almost got a double bottom within a double bottom so just to zoom out we know this support is massive 213 huge level guys it has to hold take a look at this weekly i mean even the weekly just came up i mean can you believe it it literally came up and closed on the 50 exponential moving average exactly where we said it has to close here to show us some form of buying pressure the volume is up here in iwm and when we scroll down into something like the two hour time frames look at this the bigger double bottom obviously base here base here resistance or the top of the intervening troughs here and then we have another potential double bottom bam bam resistance 220 we breached that we're going to be breaching moving averages on the higher time frames we then go slam into this and then hopefully once we get through 226 iwm should be back in the saddle that's such important zones bears all they're looking for is underneath this area they get underneath this area let's go the bears start pushing the market it's a bad sign for the markets it could show like real weakness across the board so yeah some importance at levels to be looking at here that's the ones that we have on the charts for the week ahead for iwm let's move over now to the nasdaq nasdaq was relatively weak through the friday close and a lot of chopping and changing we're getting about a 15 700 reading here on the nasdaq the previous as you would see resistance becoming support the previous week of resistance becoming support it's still all holding above the weekly 20 so i think that's positive for the markets we know the weekly 20 is a big deal we're still in our giant ascending channel so again it's hard to be a big bear on this market right now it's hard to be saying oh it's looking weak or anything like that we scroll down to something like the daily we have a good support we go down to something like the four hour and the price action is really choppy like this is super choppy for a market index this is the real market index and look at the chop up down all around no wonder people are starting to have some problems with it and a lot of this is because it's kind of like a giant channel and therefore you've got to trade it like that we want to see buying pressure coming off these lows when the buying pressure happens and we get nice lightning bolts or double bottoms on the smaller time frames or whatever it becomes easier to trade but i'll put on the qqq for you guys in the us it's the exact same thing as you can see here it's just finding support but nothing too amazing this week we hope this holds you hope it probably breaks through something like this level here which is the 389 kind of 40 around this area would be a much stronger kind of market and to really be solidifying the bull trend you've got to get above 400 we all know that 400 is the key zone i'm gonna go with it again and i've said this plenty of times the best market index to watch this week and to watch in the last couple of weeks has been the s p 500 and the reason why is it looks way better on the charts this is always the one that gives us the strongest signals and it's usually the better one to look at resistances across the board this 4712 we haven't seen a daily close above their daily close above here solidifies the bulls absolutely looking fantastic we've got a daily 50 and we keep bouncing off the 4600 so we know there's been a lot of options sitting around that level we've also got some buying wicks that we've got going on here so if we bring this down we had a nice buy twice now which basically gone back to this 46 60 area it sold off that level it's bought it eventually scrolled through and look at this a nice bullish style candle here should the monday session get through this zone you'd think we'd be pushing back up to that 47 12 area there'll be some day traders in there and a lot of people will even be dialing into the smaller time frames 15 minute charts one hour charts half an hour charts they're all going to be open for this week of trade because we've got such a strong level of support at the 4600 if we see lightning bolts we see double bottoms or whatever else reason you like to buy off the supports this is a key zone if the support is broken it becomes pretty easy for the bears they just push it straight back down to 4 500 bam bam that's where they're going to be looking at and if they get under 4 500 well then we can start talking about the bears being in control because at that point what have you got you've got a weekly break underneath the 20 and i don't have to explain how important that is it hasn't happened since the pandemic if we get underneath that zone let's watch out we'll be really coming at you with daily videos because that'll be a pretty important zone for us to be watching out and certainly an important area some good levels here on the s p 500 for the week ahead let's move over to the elephant in the room bitcoin oh boring and slow this market continues to not hold up that well while it's still holding on to the remnants of the 46 000 and just please like let it go back up it just keeps weakening i mean if we look at any chart here nothing on bitcoin currently looks strong it needs to snap this real weakness it's a series of lower highs coming through almost looks like as i've drawn up here this descending kind of triangle here and nothing is is really looking great the weekly doesn't look fantastic at this stage though it's not closed we have the long leg doji of the previous week so we need to hold above again the 46 46 and a half and if we go into something like an eight hour chart one of our favorite charts to look at you really can see this more defined weakness so we have resistance resistance resistance if we rally could that sell off again that would be bad for the market it really is all about breach this show us the first signs of recovery move up to the 52 which is the next big point of resistance and if we get through there that's where the bulls come back in that's where all the fud comes out of the market and people feel so much better about the crypto market at this stage at least how we see it for the bears i mean just need to get underneath these lows 45 and a half get a closure underneath there here we go to 42 land or possibly even lower so a lot holds in the balance you would think for the bitcoin and crypto markets ethereum's very very similar if we go out to an eight hour you'll notice just weakness coming across the board it's a little bit stronger but we've basically got supports got a series of lower peaks coming through our lower highs we need to breach through this get through that 41 60 area and then that will solidify some at least bullish intentions here in the market things will look a lot better it's really important we get some of these zone breaks hopefully we do so over the next week btc shorts slightly rising here showing that some of the whales are moving into short positions to put it in context it's still incredibly low it's nothing notable just yet not like that last one we had a spike of so unless this continues to rise we're not too concerned and at this stage it's still quite minimal week ahead information nothing much coming out this week the markets will be left to really control themselves within the technical boundaries of what they're going to do anyway so wall street will be out in full manipulation we'll be seeing some key supports and key resistances hopefully tested and maybe even the beginnings of a santa claus rally will we get it i hope so i hope so for a lot of your sakes and maybe even crypto maybe santa will come to the crypto market this year guys please subscribe remember to give us a thumbs up if you enjoy the videos and i'm interested to see your comments down below so of course let us know what your answers were and we'll see you in the next one bye for now have a great weekend see you soon

Channel: FX Evolution

Views: 7,012

Keywords: stock market, stock market crash, day trading, s&p 500 technical analysis, technical analysis, sp 500, stock market technical analysis, sp500 technical analysis, stock market for beginners, stock market analysis, stock market crash 2021, technical analysis course, s&p 500 technical analysis today, swing trading, s&p 500, sp 500 ta, qqq ta, spy stock, stock market today, stock market news, day trading strategies, fxevolution, bitcoin, investing for beginners, #investing

Id: jwmpAMhcAcw

Length: 24min 39sec (1479 seconds)

Published: Sat Dec 18 2021