A PIZZA WITH IT. >> OUR NEXT GUEST, WORLD LEADERS CONVENEN TO IMAGINE A PATH FORWARD IN TODAY'S POLITICAL CLIMATE, AND RAY DALIO, IT'S GREAT TO SEE YOU ON DAY ONE HERE WE TALK ABOUT CRISIS, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF CRISIS AND FOLKS INVOLVED IN CRISIS THAT ARE HERE, IF YOU WILL. THE PRESIDENT OF ISRAEL WILL GET HERE ON WEDNESDAY, AND PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY, WHO YOU SAW THIS MORNING, IS HERE, AND ANTONY BLINKEN IS HERE, AND CHINA IS HERE THERE ARE CROSS CURRENTS TAKING PLACE, AND I HAVE BEEN READING YOU ON LINKEDIN NOW, AND YOU HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT HOW TO THINK ABOUT THE ECONOMY. >> I THINK, AS YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE ARE FIVE MAJOR FORCES THAT REPEATED THROUGH HISTORY, AND THOSE ARE THE DEBT PHUPB ECONOMIC FORCE, AND THE EXTERNAL GEOPOLITICAL FORCE, AND THAT'S THE STRUGGLE FOR THE CONTROL OF THE WORLD ORDER, AND THE CLIMATE ISSUE. THROUGHOUT HISTORY, THE CLIMATE HAS KILLED MORE THAN ANYTHING, AND LORD KNOWS IT'S A BIGGER FORCE NOW, AND THERE'S TECHNOLOGY >> RIGHT >> WE HAVE ALL OF THESE FORCES COMING TOGETHER IN 2024. IF WE LOOK AT THEM INDIVIDUALLY AND YOU PUT THEM TOGETHER, THEY EACH AFFECT EACH OTHER, AND THE ELECTION OF THE PRESIDENT WILL AFFECT THE MARKETS AND THEN THE MARKETS WILL AFFECT THE AMOUNT OF MONEY WE ARE SPENDING ON WARS, AND THAT WILL HAVE AN AFFECT AND THEY ARE ALL COMING TOGETHER 2024 WILL BE A PIVOTAL YEAR, BECAUSE WHEN WE MEET NEXT YEAR AT THIS TIME WE WILL BE ABLE TO LOOK BACK ON THE INTERNAL CONFLICT FORCE AND THE GEOPOLITICAL FORCE -- >> HISTORICALLY WHEN THERE'S LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY, IT'S THE BEST TIME TO BUY, RIGHT? >> WELL, IT DEPENDS. I THINK IT'S MORE COMPLICATED THAN THAT. I THINK THE MARKETS, MOSTLY FOR THE MAGNIFICENT SEVEN, YOU KNOW, YOU CAN'T LOOK AT THE MARKETS AS A WHOLE, YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE PIECES THEN YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT DIFFERENT COUNTRIES. SO THE PRICING, AS WE HAD THE MOVE DOWN TO 4% BOND YIELDS, AND THEN WE HAD MOVEMENT IN EQUITIES, IN PARTICULAR IN THOSE COMPANIES, AND THEY ARE NO LONGER AS CHEAP AS THEY WERE BEFORE, RIGHT? I THINK WE START WITH A BOND YIELD. START WITH AN INFLATION RATE AND THEN ADD IN A REAL RATE. I THINK THE INFLATION RATE IS IN THE VICINITY, LIKELY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF 3, 3.5%, AND THEN A REAL YIELD, AND A 4% BOND YIELD, THAT'S NO LONGER A REALLY ATTRACTIVE RATE. IF YOU GO BEYOND THE BOND YIELD, AND YOU SAY THE BOND YIELD WILL AFFECT EVERYTHING, AND WE HAVE TO ROLLOVER DEBTS AT HIGHER INTEREST RATES AND SO ON, AND IF YOU LOOK AT THAT PARTICULAR THING, BY ANY MEASURE, IT'S NOT CHEAP. >> THE MARKET IS NOT CHEAP OKAY >> SO THE PRICING, HERE, IS DIFFERENT THAN THE ENVIRONMENT YOU CAN'T JUST LOOK AT THE ENVIRONMENT. THEN YOU LOOK AT WHAT IS PRICED INTO A MARKET. >> RIGHT >> IF WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POLITICS, THE GEOPOLITICS, I DON'T THINK THOSE ARE PRICED IN BECAUSE IT'S DIFFICULT TO APPLY TO A MARKET, AND THAT'S NOT PRICED IN, AND NEITHER IS THE GEOPOLITICAL MAYBE IF YOU GO TO CHINA, THE PRICES ARE IN BECAUSE -- >> THE POLITICAL RAMIFICATIONS ON THE MARKET. IF PRESIDENT BIDEN WINS A SECOND TERM, GOOD OR BAD FOR THE MARKET IF FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP WINS A SECOND TERM, GOOD OR BAD FOR THE MARKET >> I THINK THEY ARE BOTH THREATENING FOR THE MARKETS. >> BOTH ARE THREATENING? >> SO THEY HAVE NO ALTERNATIVE >> WHICH IS THE BETTER OF THE BAD ALTERNATIVES, IF THAT'S THE CASE >> LET ME SAY WHY. >> OKAY. >> OUR BIG WORRY -- OUR BIGGEST WORRY IS WHETHER WE ARE GOING TO ACCEPT -- WHETHER BOTH SIDES WILL ACCEPT THE CIRCUMSTANCES, NOT JUST THE ELECTION, WHETHER THEY WILL ACCEPT THE DECISIONS EVEN TODAY WE DEAL WITH THE QUESTION OF DOES THE SUPREME COURT RULE IS THERE AN ACCEPTANCE OF THOSE DECISIONS, AND WE ARE COME INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE POLITICS IS MADE AS A POLITICAL WEAPON SO THAT WE ARE NOW HAVING FIGHTS, SO EVEN IF YOU TAKE THE EXTREME LEFT AND THE EXTREME RIGHT ARE AT RISK. IF WE TAKE BIDEN, HE WILL NOT BE PRESIDENT LIKELY, AND MOST PEOPLE THINK HE MAY NOT BE THE STRONG PRESIDENT THROUGHOUT HIS TERM THEN WE ARE DEALING WITH ANOTHER PART OF THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND THEN THE SAME -- >> YOU MEAN KAMALA HARRIS? >> AND A MORE -- THERE'S A GREAT CONFLICT BETWEEN THE LEFT AND THE RIGHT. >> YOU ARE PUTTING HER IN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE CAMP? >> IT WOULD BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. I THINK YOU WOULD SEE A MORE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATIC PARTY OKAY SO NOW YOU HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND YOU HAVE A MORE AGGRESSIVE -- EXCUSE ME, MORE CONSERVATIVE AND NATIO NATIONALISTIC PARTY, AND THE QUESTION IS HOW WE GET THROUGH THIS IN A WAY WHERE WE HAVE SENSIBLE GOVERNANCE OR DO WE HAVE IRRECONCILABLE DIFFERENCES OVER EVERYTHING. IT'S NOT JUST MONEY. TAXES WILL ENTER INTO IT THE TAXES THAT WILL COME OUT OF THIS, AND PROTECTIONISM, NATIONALISM, SUPPORT FOR OTHER COUNTRIES, ALL OF THAT WILL BE DIFFERENT, AND ALSO IT HAS TO DO WITH EVEN HOW YOU RAISE YOUR CHILDREN IN TERMS OF THESE TYPES OF BALANCES. >> BOIL THAT DOWN TO AN INVESTOR'S POINT OF VIEW IF YOU DON'T LIKE THE PAYMENT YOU ARE GETTING FOR U.S. PAYMENTS, WHAT DO YOU DO >> DO YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR NEUTRAL POSITION IS? I FIND THAT THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW ARE NOT EITHER SUPER ATTRACTIVE OR SUPER UNATTRACTIVE, GENERALLY SPEAKING ASIDE FROM THE POLITICS, SO YOU WILL COME INTO THE ENVIRONMENT WHERE THERE WILL BE GREATER RISKS TAKING THAT FACTOR AND THE WORLD FACTOR >> RIGHT >> SO WHAT IS YOUR NEUTRAL POSITION I HAVE NEUTRAL PORTFOLIO, OKAY, AND IT'S A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO THAT I DON'T TAKE THE TIME TO GET INTO YOU GO CLOSER TO YOUR NEUTRAL PORTFOLIO, AND IT DOESN'T EMPHASIZE -- PEOPLE THINK YOU GO CLOSER TO CRASH, AND THAT'S NOT RIGHT, BUT WHAT IS
