Brexit voters fleeing Tories after mass migration failure | Matthew Goodwin interview

this isn't just about free trade this isn't just about deregulation this is also about lowering migration slowing the pace of social change hello and welcome to offscript my name is Stephen Edgington after winning a significant majority in the 2019 election the conservatives look to be heading to a historic defeat at the next general election in 2024. to discuss the realignment in British politics and how the conservatives may have thrown it away I'm joined by the academic Matthew Goodwin let's start off by talking about immigration this is a major issue currently in British politics how significant is this issue for the next election well I think immigration is going to be a top three issue for the next election we can already see its number two issue for those 2019 conservative voters and I've been running focus groups in the red wall in recent weeks and I can tell you it's concerning a lot of Voters both legal immigration the fact we're now at a record high about 504 000 is our level of net migration never been higher in recent years but also we've got illegal migration on small boats crisis which is really generating a considerable amount of panic and alarm across the country and my personal view is that the the conversation that we're having in in London in parts of the media in what you might call the Elite Class doesn't really reflect the mood out there in the country I'm polling voters every week large majorities say Britain does not have control of its borders they want a tougher approach they are more than happy with Rishi sunax proposals if anything they'd like them to go a bit further they certainly don't endorse a view expressed by Gary lineker and others in recent weeks so I think this issue is going to remain at the very Forefront of British Politics as we go through the next election so as you said that we've got record illegal and legal migration all despite the brexit vote in 2016 and subsequent votes for controls on our border on our borders at several elections do you think there's a sense of betrayal among lead voters I think there's certainly a sense of confusion among lead voters I mean I just finish writing this book and I know we'll come on to talk about it but one of the questions I ask there is why is it that the conservative party have become disconnected from that unique Coalition that Boris Johnson put together in 2019 and many people will say well that was about brexit and Jeremy corbyn and we've moved on I take a different view actually I think basically the the British conservative party didn't really understand who voted for it in 2019 didn't know how to keep those voters and didn't really know what to say to those voters and immigration is an example of that consistently people who voted for the conservatives in 2019 wanted lower immigration not just controlled immigration there's a lot of conservatives basically gaslighting the country by saying well actually voters didn't want lower immigration they wanted controlled immigration wrong even today more than half the countries say we'd like lower migration please so that's that's a real point of Disconnect but underneath that I think is a fundamental tension between the brand of conservatism that we've got in this country tree the nature of conservatism and what people out there really want and one of my arguments certainly in the book is that basically the conservative party like much of the political establishment leans much too far to the cultural left and much too far to the economic right to appeal to a large number of Voters out there in the country who are saying they'd quite like something different okay let's let's talk about that last statement so I've got a quote here from Dominic Cummings on Twitter and he mentions your name so he says to go left on economy and right on culture meme is lazy ignorant oversimplification typical of pundits and crap social scientists academics he says he includes your name in that um who've never been responsible for running a winning election campaign similar to you always win in the center ground how do you respond to Mr Cummings yeah I mean In fairness um Cummings never actually um Cummings was riding a wave that started about 20 years before we even got to the brexit referendum in the 2019 election so I my personal view is his importance in British politics is vastly exaggerated and one of the things I've shown in many of my books over the years and in the new book it really underlines that that the divides that made possible the vote for brexit and before that the rise of Nigel farage and then of course Boris Johnson's realignment were a long time coming right and tapping into those divides really um you know would have been possible with or without people like like Dominic Cummings um but but the research on this is quite clear I mean if you look at the people who left the labor party for Boris Johnson in 2019 they consistently leaned a bit to the left on the economy a bit to the right on culture if you look at the people who voted for Nigel farage before Boris Johnson it was much the same they want the economy to be balanced they feel that London is just getting way too much everyone else is getting way too little but they also want the political establishment to to lean much further to the right on issues like migration on crime in fact actually I'm confused because Cummings has also made that same point so he seems a little bit confused about where where voters are they want a tougher approach on crime they want fewer small boats they also generally look at the establishment they look at the institutions and they say are these really reflecting my values and more importantly are they giving me a voice in the institutions right and I know we'll come back and talk about this but when I when I survey voters which I do regularly large majorities especially among the working class and non-graduates say people like me are not even in this National conversation anymore they look at the BBC they look at the institutions in Whitehall and Westminster they look at the Civil Service they look at the ngos they look at the universities they look at the schools and what their kids are being taught and I think they say actually my values aren't even in this conversation anymore now you know cummings's answer is to say well let's build this amorphous technocracy that will satisfy all of that because we'll make the institutions more efficient I mean that's just naive it's it's also a political Vision that will appeal to about 10 percent of the country and I think actually what is out there is is much more interesting which is this very large cross-class Coalition of Voters who don't just want to rewire the system they want to fundamentally overhaul and rebuild the system so that it better reflects their values and their voice and I think that's the story right now in British Politics as we go through the 2020s neither left nor right are adequately reflecting the values at a large chunk of the country hold so on this issue of let's say immigration being you know record numbers have you seen that filter through into people's decisions as to who they vote for so other conservatives losing votes from leave vote from leave voters as it were because of this issue and are other parties on the right let's say the Reform Party or whoever gaining because of this yeah so if you look at what's happened since um the 2019 election essentially two punches knocked out the conservative party whatever your views about them this is what happened in the polls the first was partygate costs a conservatives about six points in the polls the second was Liz truss costs the conservatives about 11 12 points in the polls so it was a two-punch combination and and through all of that the percentage of brexit Voters backing the conservatives collapsed from 76 percent all the way down to 42 percent I mean basically levers just ran for the hills now part of that was about the cost of living it was about being irritated with what happened during covid but it's also I think reflecting a realization among many voters out there especially Blue Collar voters voters who haven't passed through the universities boaters who took a punt on Johnson that that actually this conservative party isn't the conservative party they thought they were electing in 2019 and I think there's always been this tension between the liberal lever vision of conservatism that is is basically about you know deregulation liberalizing Finance you know shrinking the stay is utterly obsessed with Southern England and there is a different version of conservatism that is more culturally conservative that is saying hang on this isn't just about the economy this isn't just about free trade this isn't just about deregulation this is also about lowering migration slowing the pace of social change defending upholding and promoting Britain's distinctive identity its culture its institutions and pushing back against ideologies that want to erode that want to dilute that cultural inheritance and there are conservative parties around the world that are responding well to that and there are conservative parties around the world like here that are responding very poorly to that and I think that's ultimately why you've seen a lot of levers Run for the hills now they've not gone to reform about one in ten of them have gone to reform they've not gone to labor about one in ten have gone to labor most are now saying I'm not going to vote for anybody I'm sitting it out I'm apathetic I don't care any more I tried to get this country to change through brexit I tried to get it to change through Boris Johnson and now it's not really changing at all it's just given me more of the same you know I thought I was getting um you know a small stay a low tax a low immigration a slower changing country and what I've got is a faster changing High tax big State high immigration pro-globalization country and I think a lot of Voters are just thinking I've had enough I can't be bothered anymore okay there's a lot to unpack there and I want to go back to the uh the 80s and then sort of go through history chronological chronologically yes today so in your book you talk about Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair basically being the two sides of the same coin you have the economic reforms of Thatcher the globalization and the sort of socially liberal forms of Blair and they have both caused this major realignment in politics so that's basically your argument right yeah so in the book values voice and virtue I basically say that we've had a revolution in this country we don't often call it a revolution but that's what it is it's a political and Cultural Revolution that began in 1979 and continues to this day but for many voters they felt like it ended maybe on June the 23rd 2016. um that Revolution was led by conservatives and labor politicians but and and there are lots of people out there who'll say well hang on you can't compare Thatcher to Blair and they're very different politicians very similar in some ways I mean conviction politicians Messianic radicals completely reshape their parties but but they are actually um uh you know different ideologically you know what Thatcher introduced was a radical brand of economic liberalism you know what I call hyper globalization utterly uh focused on on liberalizing finance deregulating the economy pushing back the state when Blair took over what he brought about was a radical cultural liberalism that was about Mass immigration was about removing voters from accountable transparent institutions pushing the pedal down on the European Union pushing the pedal down on on governance this idea that we can be governed by distant diffuse unaccountable institutions and at the end of all of this this revolution basically what we're left with is a country that I think was committed to three things that lots of Voters out there felt did not reflect their values a model of hyper globalization which really hollowed out communities especially in northern England not just economically but culturally damaged families damage to social fabric damaged and established ways of life Mass immigration one of the biggest most consequential experiments this country has ever had but which had many negative effects especially on workers and non-graduates if you're in London and Oxbridge it probably worked out well for you you if you're in you know Left Behind communities much much less well almost entirely without consent of the population almost entirely without consent of the population um and then and then the depoliticization of politics politics became indistinguishable on the left and the right there was no meaningful Choice really anymore for voters and especially while we were in the European Union the blunt reality is the European Union was not a democratic organization and I talk about this a lot in the book there was no meaningful choice no meaningful influence over High office in the European Union which is why many voters said hang on a minute I'm not comfortable with this so this revolution really by the time we got to the 2010s had just completely alienated a large chunk of the country he was saying hang on a minute David Cameron looks the same as Tony Blair who really looks the same as lots of liberal conservatives and that set the stage for these three big rebellions that we then had and you as yourself have watched them unfold we had the big Rebellion with Nigel farage we had the bigger Rebellion with brexit and then we had the the Boris johnson-led rebellion in 2019 but this was a 40 50 year process which is why I say just forget about Jeremy corbyn for a minute forget about Dominic Cummings forget about what was written on the side of a Big Red Bus what is happening here today is a reflection of a political revolution that has been coming for 40 50 years it's extraordinary you cite in your book several reasons that remainers generally try to explain the way the brexit votes whether it was the Russians or as you say that's the side of the bus um or on you know unfair influence on Facebook advertisement through Cambridge analytica and as you say again in the book there's this documentary on Netflix called the Great hack right which even a political friends of mine have watched and they were like this is brilliant you know and I was like you don't know anything um no I know this is it and it has a huge influence you know on on what people actually think which is which is um real shame but um yeah going back to Thatcher and Blair though Thatcher herself she was a social conservative in her own views um Peter Hitchens and others you know criticize her for not passing more conservative social legislation um and and failing on that front but you could really pin um the changes to the conservative party perhaps in 2005 when David Cameron was elected leader do you see that as a big turning point for the party's sort of political ideology and Future I do I think there I think there were a generation of conservatives who essentially decided like like um Blair and brown before them on on the left to go all in on social liberalism they basically forgot about a large chunk of the country and said we're going to go in on on progressives in the cities I mean Cameron and Osborne actually called themselves Progressive conservatives I mean they went all in and there's a fascinating um uh Story I mean I say in the book you know John Major when he gave His Brilliant concession speech by the way in 1997 he said you know I've lost the election but actually one thing we have done is forced the labor party to give up socialism and change itself and and embrace conservative economics right essentially to embrace the economic Legacy of thatcherism well you know if Gordon Brown had given a similar speech in in 2010 I think what he could have said is well yes Labor's lost power but actually what Labor's done is successfully force a conservative to embrace social liberalism and you can see that today I mean if you look back at 12 years of conservative rule on all of the key questions about culture identity and belonging which Remember Have Become a lot more Salient since Thatcher so I'm not I'm not dumping on the factor I'm saying she made some mistakes when it came to economics but culturally it was a very different era today these questions have become much more important to voters as they're living through Mass migration as they're living through the imposition of cultural values on their children and their communities and as they're living through you know this assault on on Western ways of life and I think if you look at all of those issues now the conservatives over the last 12 years have really not promoted any distinctive conservative view on those issues they've just gone all in essentially with with the socially liberal if not radically Progressive consensus because we have to remind ourselves that that today liberalism itself is under attack and one of the things I talk about in the book is that you know in the old days we would just be talking about liberals but actually I think today we're also talking about radical progressives and we're talking about a distinctive group of people who represent about 15 percent of Britain who are not liberal in any meaningful sense of the term they are illiberal because they are obsessed with reshaping our society around fixed group identities they have no interest in individual rights they are very hostile towards what used to hold the nation together shared identities shared histories shared values and they are very dismissive of scientific research and scientific knowledge that might undermine some of their claims that Britain is an institutionally racist Society or that we should spend all of our time talking about Britain's Empire and I think that's why I talk about conservatives in a fairly you know in a challenging way in this book because I personally feel that that Britain's conservative party for many voters is no longer what its name implies I think there are lots of Voters in now just feel that the conservatives have gone all in on a political experiment which at best represents 25 30 of the country and again that's why we see so many people now leaving politics altogether which of course in the first part of post is made even worse because we have no Alternatives there are no challenges there were no competitors because it's almost impossible for them to break through under first pass the post but taking politicians out of this in a way don't you think this is all a reflection of the cultural revolution that's gone on in Britain ever since the 1960s and you could even argue before that sort of post-war politics and we've seen huge huge changes in in people's Viewpoint views towards let's say Christianity marriage gay rights all of these more socially liberal ideas that have slowly become more popular in Britain aren't we just seeing politicians basically react to that Revolution I think that liberal revolution has gathered speed and scale and over the last 10 years it's become a lot more visible to a lot more people I mean if you look at say what's happened to White University educated liberals and I've looked at all the data on this both in the US and the UK they've gone through what we call the great awokening so they've become even more liberal they become hyper liberal as a philosopher John Gray would say you know they've become utterly convinced that racism is a major problem in society they've become utterly convinced that we should go further in promoting and protecting minority rights or we should go further in teaching children about gender identity Theory or this sort of misleading claim that all Western societies are institutionally racist and backward um and and essentially they've they've sort of doubled down on their on their values so it's not like the 60s and 70s what we get what we're living through I think is a is a very distinctive cultural transformation among the elite graduate class and that's why I call this class a new Elite in the book because this isn't like the old Elite right Britain's always had an elite we've always had a small network of people who have just been more connected and more affluent and more prosperous than other groups in society but but there's a difference today the the olderly 60s 70s 80s was generally supportive of the cultural consensus in the country was certainly economically in a very different place for most voters but culturally shared their values you know looked up to Britain's institutions looked at the good in our history as well as the bad was deferential to our to our Collective inheritance was respecting of key institutions and figures royal family and others the new middle class graduate Elite which has become much more visible since the 90s is very different it's openly counter-cultural it is skeptical if not cynical of all of those things I've just tested it derives status by criticizing if not repudiating our shared inheritance which is a big difference from the old Elite it is overwhelmingly defined by its University education at one of the elite institutions and those institutions themselves have become much more strongly influenced by the ideology of radical progressivism it's not a conspiracy there is no Long March through the institutions organized by a handful of individuals what it is is what academics would just call education polarization so University graduates have moved much further to the left on cultural issues partly as they're influenced within the institutions and non-graduates have basically either stayed where they were or they've moved a little bit a little bit leftwards but not as much as as a graduate class so why does that matter well if you look at the BBC if you look at the creative Industries the cultural institutions the museums the galleries the schools the universities all those institutions that are disproportionately dominated by Elite graduates from better off families well they're taking the institutions with them as they go on this journey this Great Awakening which is why you can see in the reaction to Gary lineker in the harassment of academics on University campus in what we're teaching our kids about race sex and gender on all those issues the elite graduate class is basically dominating projecting their values and a majority and non-graduate majority or even a grad graduates who haven't passed through the elite institutions are looking at this and thinking what the hell's happened to our ruling class and to what extent do you think that this so-called infiltration although you say it's not centralized or or sort of pre meditated in any way to what extent has this socially liberal infiltration impacted the conservative party well I think the conservative party uh has been swept up in the same political and Cultural Revolution and you can see that at certain points in recent history the conservative party's positioning on brexit on migration on the 2020 protests in the aftermath of George Floyd the conservative party historically has not wanted to wade into what I call in the book the cultural axis of politics it's basically seeded territory it's allowed debates about the rights of women the rights of children the rights of family history and identity to be reframed as culture wars that is the biggest symbol of how badly the conservatives have handled the last 12 years or so they've allowed this large chunk of territory which is the most conservative part of territory really that that you know the party should be focused on to be rebranded as somehow illegitimate or unacceptable you cannot talk about the rights of women or the rights of children or the family without being badged in some way as being unacceptable or a culture Warrior right which is a reflection of just how much territory the conservatives succeeded and I think partly that's because our conservatives unlike the Italian the French and The American or the Swedish conservatives and others I think basically they have been historically much more interested in status and their links with business than representing conservative values I think conservatives in Britain are are utterly obsessed with status I think they look at these cultural disputes and they are sneering if not in if indifferent if not sneering towards them I think they think these things are below them um I think they see them as a distraction and I think they would much rather talk about trade um free trade liberalizing Finance deregulating the economy whatever it is and so they've been outflanked by a lot of movements I mean if you look at the last decade that they didn't see coming you know farage brexit to some extent Boris Johnson and they remain in a deeply vulnerable place I mean Rishi sunak has been talking the talk on issues like small boats but on a whole array of issues the conservatives as far as I can see remain deeply deeply vulnerable to an incursion from a genuinely conservative movement that says you know you guys are basically you've gone all in on the liberal consensus um we don't really think you're representing conservative values anymore and that's because many of the people within the conservative party throughout the last 10 20 years have genuinely believed in this socially liberal consensus and as you say the arguments around economics has been their major focus and I just want to tackle you on that that specific issue about neoliberalism and free trade and lower taxes and all of these things because I think that there is a very strong argument from some people who supported Liz trusts people like David Frost who say that Britain at the moment is um is experiencing the highest rates of taxes we've had in 70 years we've got a huge level of government spending and government intervention massive amounts of regulation on the economy businesses are fleeing to other countries around the world we've got very very low economic growth we've got low productivity these are all major major challenges that cause serious consequences for people's lives whether they're in the North and the red wall or wherever they are in the U UK We have basically got a struggling stagnating economy and we must revolutionize these things by deregulating by cutting taxes by supply-side economics and all of these I think all of these things you know there is there is a grain of Truth or more than that in in those arguments I agree with much of that but what I'm saying is it's not either or and if you look at how some of those reforms are were handled or suggested it was very clear that they were done so in a way that I in my view we're not going to benefit the whole country in the way they should have done so if you look at you know some of the priorities of say the trust government I mean you know removing a cap on Bankers bonuses as one of the first moves of that government I don't think was a particularly smart thing to do if you look at the analysis of how the tax changes would have impacted the country they'd mainly have impacted to Southeast London and the commuter belt more than they would other people if you look at leveling up trust in actually mentioned leveling up there was no real interest in what are we going to do to revitalize the Left Behind communities now I accept the point that I all the points you've made about tax about the state and you know those are all valid arguments but historically conservatism has not only been about GDP has not only been about the economy and has not only only been about business interests and I think for many people out there there's a sense that today's version of conservatism or brand of conservativism is much more interested in prioritizing the interests of business over the interests of the national community and if you look for example at what trust had promised on migration or was trying to do with the India trade deal if you look at what Boris Johnson did I mean you know one of the interesting comparisons is we've compare and contrast you know what voters thought they were getting with Johnson versus what he did so you see the massive liberalization of migration policy even to the point whereby the government removes a requirement on British businesses to advertise jobs in Britain first do you think that's what people thought they were getting when they voted for Johnson so they you know and even out there I can say I run focus groups all the time most people still haven't realized just how much the country's been changed over the last five years I don't think they thought they were going to get this massive liberalization of migration from outside of Europe I certainly don't think they thought they were going to be getting net migration of 500 000 and very very liberal rules and procedures on international student migration whereby people can bring dependents on others and we're now seeing things that we didn't even see under new labor um the irony being they've been introduced under price post-brexit conservative governments so as I say I mean the British conservative party is now an outlier I mean if you look at what's happening in you know as I say France Italy and America the debate is moved on among conservatives and in Britain it stayed in sort of you know we're still kind of in 1986 1987 territory there's still that view that essentially the conservatives really can ignore all of these issues not deal with them and just keep talking about reforming the economy and I think people have moved on I think a lot of people out there are scared anxious and nervous about what's happening to their country it's interesting because you mentioned Boris Johnson now he is very socially liberal you can look at his record look at everything he said over the last 20 years okay fine there's been some you know off comments offhand comments and Telegraph columns and things which is sort of positioned himself as the as the sort I don't know more socially conservative person but I think anyone can look at him and say yes this is a North London Elite liberal guy who believes in not even borders necessarily but believes in probably bothered by them well absolutely he believes in in Mass migration certainly he doesn't see a problem necessarily a problem with that massively into environmental issues so Net Zero was one of his biggest campaigns as as prime minister um so you know do you think this is part of the reason why the conservatives have failed in that realignment I think it's a major reason why the conservative party are now flatlining in the low low 20s I don't think Johnson was socially liberal I think Johnson in many ways was a Cosmopolitan I mean I think if you look at his background you look at his links I think also Boris Johnson just wanted to be liked I think he wanted the chattering classes to like him and I think that influenced his decision making I don't think he really ever went out with a clear plan for holding and extending the electorate that he won in 2019 and it was ample opportunity to do that I mean if you look at Britain's political geography today the way I see it there is absolutely no chance that conservatives are going to win London the university towns and a large chunk of the southeast commute about the next election forget it they are gone right they are full to the brim of University graduates middle class professionals and young Millennials and Zoomers who to be blunt have been trending away from the conservatives for 10 years are very very hacked off about brexit are even more hacked off about party gay and are just not going to vote conservative of the next election so the choice facing the party I think is clear not much of a choice the only way forward the party has is to reconnect with those areas of the country that voted for it in 2019 and also to work at trying to expand some of those areas there are about three dozen labor seats currently with small majorities we could call them the red all 2.0 where labor MPS in Yorkshire and the Northeast and parts of the Northwest still remain very vulnerable where there are lots of Voters who are just and you know I sit in rooms with them all the time just crying out for a competent party that is serious about leveling up you know that is serious about toughening up crime and that is serious about lowering migration and defending the country's borders and the 2019 Manifesto actually was quite a good Manifesto for the conservative party the problem is it sort of morphed into this very different brand of conservativism that a lot of Voters in those seats don't really want and if you buy into my analysis that there's no way the conservatives are going to win anything in Scotland are going to get more chased out of Wales are going to get hammered in London and University towns then that is the only way Rishi sunak has to minimize his losses and to try and win back uh some seats to hold power that's the only possible way forward for the conservatives the problem is is that I I think most of the conservative party Elite do not believe in the things that you're suggesting what they say I talk a lot about that in the book and I you know I I have a lot of sympathy for that view let's talk about the New Elites you know you do a sort of chapter or part of the book it's about this you've already mentioned um a little bit about them now in recent days we've got this big row about Gary lineker uh basically comparing government rhetoric on the small boats crisis issue to um to Germany in the 1930s now again these explanations for the a concern what the conservative party is and what populism is are very popular among Elite groups this comparison with the Nazis and with fascists is um and and also with Putin you know compared sort of looking at the ties between the Russians Putin and brexit as well that's become a very popular meme among certain journalists and lawyers and things like this on Twitter why do they suddenly believe these crazy conspiracy theories yeah I mean I call it liberal catastrophizing I think that's basically what it is I think it's a cognitive distortion among radical progressives who represent 15 of the country the sort of follow-back pro-european people on Twitter that basically seem to be of the view that we have re-entered this Grand historical struggle that is sort of tantamount to the 1930s and I think partly that's a reflection of the fact that many of those people have never lost before and I think they've spent 10 10 years or so losing basically beginning with the brexit referendum from then onwards and I think they've they've suffered a series of catastrophic losses that election losses yeah and also cultural losses in their mind you know they they identified strongly with with you know europeanism and cosmopolitanism and I think they feel that um you know their sense of self has been violated um and also they've reached for narratives that have exaggerated their sense of importance I mean Gary lineker is a great example if you if as I've done if you pull the country and say what do you think about Rishi sunax proposals uh for dealing with the small boats which is removing people when they arrive refusing to allow them to return to the country in the future if you completely disagree with that policy which I would suggest Gary lineker does given what he said then you are part of the 16 I mean 16 of the country completely disagree with that policy a majority agree with it now if you look at our Elite debate our media debate or sex of the media I should say over the last few weeks that would leave you with a view that actually a large majority of the country would share Gary lineker's view but actually it's quite different and I think for that subsection of of the country the radical progressives you know they simply see the world in a fundamentally different way and the evidence I think backs me up on this they are almost unanimous in viewing Britain as a very racist Society they are utterly convinced that we should spend almost all of our time talking about historic injustices what happened during the days of Empire they are five times as likely as the average voter to share their views on social media so they just sit there every day just living on Twitter pumping out these mad views which I think social media has Amplified and exacerbated they are very very comfortable financially they're very affluent they typically have gone to an elite University have an undergraduate postgraduate degree they live in the cities so they are this sort of extreme group within the the new Elite you know they are really not exposed to Alternative views and perspectives and when they're confronted with them they are the most politically intolerant group they're the most likely to say well that person should be sacked should be disinvited should be discriminated against because of their political views and in the universities where I work um radical progressives are essentially dominant I mean they dominate the monoculture there is no diversity of of views essentially anymore uh and so you are basically constantly coming up against this world view which is you know very focused on catastrophizing and you see that every day on social media we're going to have a general election within the next two years it looks like labor can do very well probably when that election if you look at opinion polls now um so and you talk again in your book about sort of liberal fight back or liberal counter-revolution or or whatever and do you think that's basically going to happen so there is a counter Revolution to to what I think we've been living through with you know farage brexit and Boris Johnson was this attempt by millions of people even if they viewed all of those things as imperfect vessels even if they viewed you know faraj or Johnson or whatever they said okay these guys don't reflect everything about me but you know they're trying to push back against this consensus um this liberal consensus and I think um you know that that that Rebellion which which basically dominated the 2010s I think is now beginning to give rise to this this counter-revolution among University graduates among Millennials Zoomers from gen Z and and minority voters um who are overwhelmingly moving leftwards I mean I'll give you one stat among University educated 18 to 25 year olds who've typically just graduated on their way to doing so 85 percent are planning to vote for the labor party women have been moving sharply leftwoods University graduates and University towns have 90 80 to 90 percent of Britain's minority ethnic population is planning to vote for labor so the the groups that are part of this new Revolt that's coming and it is coming um you know they are they are mobilizing very quickly now the conservatives can fend that off if they're clever the downside for many of those groups is that they concentrate narrowly in the cities and the university town so it's difficult for them to get this big majority but for the conservatives to to come to come around that to navigate that they've got to give people a message that they find appealing and resonant and that means for Rishi sunak it's not only about the small boats there's also about a whole host of issues you know cost of living the NHS but also you know where are we going as a country I mean how sustainable is having net migration at these levels um what are you doing to defend Britain's distinctive identity and culture these are things people genuinely care about and they might not show up in the top 10 list of salient issues but people genuinely care about them they want to talk about them they want to talk about what's happening to the country and if the conservatives do that they've got a chance they've got a chance of maybe maybe scraping through with a smaller majority remember they only need to be three points ahead in the polls to to win another majority labor have got to be 12 and a half points ahead in the polls to win a majority so you know it is still very difficult for starmer and labor to win that and so sunak needs to win back all those levers that have left his party and he needs to appeal to small town medium-sized Town coastal towns non-land England sunac needs to basically appeal to non-london England in a very convincing credible way because if he doesn't then the revolution that began in 1979 that gathered pace through the new labor years is about to have a whole new chapter and I suspect it will be a much more dramatic and far-reaching one but you also make this point that they're very liberal Progressive views on cultural issues let's say on the Empire Etc are in a minority exactly in Britain so how can a minority of people lead to this great Revolution counter-revolution if you see what I mean because nobody wants to stand up to them it's that simple because nobody wants to actually challenge their views and if you don't get moderates in the room or you don't get conservatives in the room saying you don't represent public opinion I'll give you one example renaming pregnant women pregnant persons right that's a five percent issue which means five percent of the country think that's a good idea I'll give you another one um Scotland's gender recognition Reform Bill right what percentage of the country overall supported that 20 80 thought allowing 16 year olds to legally change their gender without any medical supervision is insane now who who was willing to call that out some conservatives did but they did so by defending the equalities act the argument was this bill conflicts with a piece of legislation brought in by new labor I don't remember a single conservative standing up and saying I disagree with this because I think gender identity theory is not grounded at any it got grounded in any serious science that we have and that is what I'm talking about so that's why a minority of 10 to 15 of the country are reshaping the institutions and the culture around the world view which a large majority of people out there don't share but they've all but labor also at 50 of the polls so how can those two facts be well because there are there are other issues outside of what we might call the radically progressive agenda there are issues around the collapsing National Health Service there are issues around the cost of living there are issues around um you know the state of the economy there are issues around how badly the conservatives have managed the last few years partygate Liz truss where they've effectively allowed themselves to be completely outflanked on these issues so it's not it's not either or but conservatives have to recognize that when they say well we're not wading into culture wars so-called culture wars they're actually really seeding a hell of a lot of territory that conservatives in other parts of the world um have been more than willing to venture into in order to try and change the political game so if you look at how the schooling of kids on um on issues of to do with race sex and gender in the US has been has been made a much more Salient issue that was primarily Republican conservative activists that were doing that that were saying you know is it right that we're teaching primary school kids the foundations of critical race Theory which don't really have any basis in you know I would argue you don't really have much of a basis in empirical um reality it's certainly a political project um and as a result what happened in Virginia you know what happened in New York what happened in lots of these areas where you had very contested disputes the Republicans were able to to get back into the game now is that is that nice politics is it is it moderate politics no um are these issues people care about yes so our Conservancy is going to talk about them and I think that's a question hanging over the British Tories so you obviously think there's a big opportunity for a party on the right to sort of take advantage of all these problems the current conservative party has is Richard Tice the leader of the Reform Party Britain's new uh Ronda santis or Glenn yunkin well I think the um I think to be clear I think there's a big opportunity in this country for a reshaped conservative party every party is defined by its dominant faction every party around the world which faction is dominant now at certain points in history and I know you've been to the US recently you've seen how the dominant faction can change you can go from a a liberal conservative faction in the Mitt Romney guys to a national conservative faction in the Ronda santis Donald Trump guys in the same way I think the only plausible Way Forward in Britain giving the first given the first passer post system is some sort of change in the dominant faction within the conservative movement because one irony of brexit is even though it was supposed to give us more choice and more voice over British politics what it did as well as it removed the European Parliament elections and it removed a set of Elections under proportional representation so if you're a new party if you're a challenger party if you're a small party trying to navigate this political system has become almost impossible you know you can do the lib Dem thing and you can build up through local elections and I'll see you in 50 years because that's how long it will take or you can focus your efforts on trying to change the dominant faction within one of the big two for all about Canada didn't the Canadian conservatives managed to flip and sort of destroy that old Tory party and sort of bring in a new one same in France and not you know you could look to other places where the the Main Street faculties were destroyed 93 is an interesting counter factual where you have the Reform Party essentially replaced a sort of liberal Progressive conservative movement so I'm not I'm not saying it can't happen but if the conditions are right if the sense of cultural and political crisis become so acute if 60 of the country is saying neither left nor right represent my values anymore and there are issues on which they feel very strongly but both parties are essentially indistinguishable on then as we learned during the 2010s a gap can emerge and you can have new entrants and just very briefly to end the interview just on Richard Tyson the Reform Party you know obviously you're doing polling all the time are people aware who they are what do they think of times what you know some people are aware of who reform are as I say about one in ten of Boris Johnson's voters from 2019 are going over to reform um I think in the current context I think there's certainly an argument that rather than averaging seven eight percent in the polls they potentially could be and should be averaging a little bit higher especially given all the disillusionment that followed the departure of Boris Johnson the disillusionment with the small boats and so on and so forth but as I say you know Richard Tyson reform are now operating in a very different context from what Nigel farage was operating in during the 2000s and the early 2010s I mean farage you know whatever your views about farage he was Adept at using the institutional mechanism that he had European elections to get visibility now Richard Tice in the same way as the greens they don't have that mechanism anymore all they have are by-elections and local elections very very different very very difficult to do not impossible but but the barriers to entry now in British politics are enormous thank you very much Matthew Goodwin thanks thanks for having me all right

Channel: The Telegraph

Views: 131,407

Keywords: Telegraph, News, brexit, rishi sunak, immigration, news, prime minister rishi sunak, sunak, prime minister, politics, eu, northern ireland, brexit news, rishi sunak news, uk, brexit deal, boris johnson, suella braverman, migrants, parliament, rishi, braverman, migration, small boats, asylum seekers, english channel, european commission, conservative, pmqs, asylum, prime minister uk, conservatives, johnson, conservative party, migrant news

Id: 7QzNxRoq1A8

Length: 47min 3sec (2823 seconds)

Published: Fri Mar 17 2023