Brexit and the Future of the United Kingdom

thank you very much for inviting me to give the annual lecture of the Welsh Government Center Richard it's a pleasure and a privilege to be here the center my book is a hugely important resource needed more than ever in the world we now find ourselves in both in and out of governments I've been a consumer and the beneficiary of the work that you do and the understanding you bring to devolution and to the place of Wales in the United Kingdom and the wider world has to say your research wasn't always entirely comfortable for somebody who was doing the bidding over you came innocence but it was always important and necessary and it is invariably added to the richness of the public debate and informed the appreciation of the choices that governments you can devolve have to make when we agreed to this lecture I'm not sure that you certainly I knew that we would be I would be speaking just three days before what I think is going to be one of the most seismic and it's outcomes UK general elections in decades I am no longer a civil servant but I still have some of those sort of slightly nervous civil service tics about talking about politics particularly sensitive times I get over it anyway and so I am released tonight but anyway it was there thought it was it was it was interesting timing and I put it down Richard - you're prescient see the brilliance of your political foresight like recognising that this was going to be the week of a general election when we planned all of this I don't know seven or eight months ago but very clever thank you very much for that and so I am going to be trying be reflecting the time in Swords piquancy to any attempt to describe the murky territory into which the country now heads and any reflexive analysis Marissa's been swept away in a torrent of post-election excitement but I hope at least some of what I have to say leaves the lingering resonance and helps you here to imagine yourself into the possible futures that lie ahead and to shape your responses accordingly so I want to say a little bit about the possible outcomes of the election on Thursday and what they might mean while avoiding the risk of prediction I've been burned often enough as of many others over the last few years I'll call the Scottish referendum right book got everything else since wrong so I'm not going to try and predict but I want to appear a little deeper to see to understand the nature of what is going on in this country and what it might mean for the future of the United Kingdom for whoever claims the keys to number 10 in the days ahead will have to deal with surging cross currents of newly forming and reforming questions of identity and national Allegiance that have I believe the capacity to rock this union to its foundations brexit at heart has been is about sovereignty in through that identity I want to look at how the concept has played out in the brexit debate and how it relates to the pattern of nationalism within the United Kingdom I will explore how the forces unleashed by the EU referendum might resonate through the British state and its structures and I will examine the capacity of our institutions to handle the roiling pressures of identity politics and finish by asking how the incoming government might cope with the challenge of holding this other Union together think of it as my manifesto for incoming there's no common template here as all this plays out over the years ahead the story will look and feel different in different parts of UK one of the frustrations Derrick might share this with me of dealing with UK governance issues at the center of the UK government was getting the devolved parts of the UK out of peripheral vision into clear focus many of you will have shared that frustration directly or vicariously with the added irritation have almost invariably find in Wales as an afterthought to the more pressing politics of Scotland or Northern Ireland and as Richard says a Yorkshire born Englishman who's lived over now half my life in Scotland and worked for 20 years for various incarnations of government in Scotland I confess to my own biases and doubtless you will spot them in what I have said to say tonight but one of the really great responsibilities I had for the seven years that I ran the UK governance group up to March this year looking after devolution was to work with a really brilliant folk in the Wales office to whom could I say I pay the warmest warmest tribute Glen Jones and his team as great friends of Wales and advocates I saw this closer than anybody advocates for the interests of Wales in the councils of the UK government so that leaves with no excuse Wales has to be central to what I have to say but first off to the election now you can all read the polls and you will have your own private and public predictions as well as wishes as to the outcome and some of us will prove to have been wise before the event more of us as a way of these things will prove to been wise after the event we will have still I think three plausible outcomes in order of course ability this is telling you no more than what the polls are telling us a conservative majority government a hung parliament leading to a minority Conservative government and home Parliament leading to a minority labour government in some sort of loose deal with one two or more other parties so far so unspin think is there anything crunchy that we can say now I think there are three things firstly whatever anyone has said in the course of this campaign for exit will by no means and in no guys be done any time soon the likelihood still is that we will leave on the 31st of January but the resolution of our new relationship with the EU will be years in the sorting indeed in most brexit futures the UK will be in interminable negotiations with the EU pretty much forever we need to get used to that even if we find ourselves led by a government committed to a renegotiation of their withdrawal agreement and a subsequent referendum on the outcome do not be beguiled by the falsely comforting notion that there is somehow a return to the status quo ante if the result of that referendum is a decision to remain the last three and a half years have fundamentally altered that perceptions of the UK in the EU and of the EU in the UK likely close on half the country will be bitterly disappointed at that outcome and feel cheated by it every move by every UK Minister in every UK kayuu Council will risk becoming the object of political controversy and cries of betrayal at home at what point can a new normal emerge when the trials and tribulations of membership of the EU become again no more than a background grumbling to the more intense drama of domestic politics and when the UK can be reliably predictable on how it holds itself in the affairs of the e Union my contention would be no time very soon secondly this election really has been the brexit election despite all the attempts to take attention on to other issues particularly the NHS brexit has stubbornly remained the top issue the leaven remained camps have I think we seems begun to sort themselves the former clustering around the Conservatives the Lasser and assigning themselves less comfortably and variably to labor lib dems or nationalist parties the centrality of brexit is not I would contend an artifact of clever campaigning by any particular political party that is I think rather insulting to the intelligence of the electorate it is rather because more people now care about what membership of the EU or otherwise means for them and their sense of identity maybe it took a visceral referendum campaign to unleash that concern but unleashed it is and I see no prospect of it going back into its box to quote Peter Kellner if you gov for Exeter's completely transformed britain's political landscape by prompting millions of voters to rethink their politics and their party loyalties i buy that thirdly as with other recent elections this campaign has not really been won but more like for elections northern ireland of course has always danced to its own tune in scotland delayering is now multiple and very complicated left right on nationalist unionist or leave remain just before coming down as saw one of the on twitter a short piece of how people should vote in mind constituency i live in east loaded in scotland and so he's complicated and they changed their minds it's so complicated between the different parties competing in that constituency in that story truth across scotland wales of course difference again perhaps closer to the english pattern but driven by different cross currents after the relative success applied in the european elections big question will traditional labour dominance reassert itself while holding holding off the Conservatives are noticing more polling out just this evening that suggests they are still holding their nose in front just but will that change on the and in England we may be about to witness the biggest reorientation of politically allegiance in many a year so where does the election campaign leave us it leaves as I suggest with questions of self-determination of identity and of sovereignty preeminence in our politics in a way that we have never really experienced before to choose self-determination at whatever level of governance is of course a legitimate political act it has been fundamental a fundamental tenet of the rise of the nation-state across the globe since at least the mid 19th century and it is a concept of such enormous political power because of course it speaks to our sense of who we are and our place in the world and that power has been self-evident in the whole brexit debate but I think underestimated throughout and still underestimated by those whose own sense of identity is less url' to the nation-state and more comfortable with a membership of a wider community of Nations for the assertion of sovereignty in an end of on its own in an end to itself is really the only point of praxis there is barely any other question to which brexit is the answer why the brexit campaign to became to be so dominated by the question of sovereignty will be long argued over by future historians I doubt any analysis will find that there were many in the country who shared the peculiar neuroses of the hardline Euroskeptics prone to the night terrors about the supremacy to supremacy of the court of justice of the EU or the extension of co-decision and qualified majority voting rather I suspect that the evidence will show that this was not simply an argument about the EU but more an upwelling of distance arising from a deeper sense of disenfranchisement of which the EU became the symbol take back control was such a powerful slogan front precisely because it spoke to that sense of disenfranchisement and promised the return of something that many felt they had lost for themselves their families and their communities and this is powerful stuff as illustrated in the way in which the arguments about burr exit have been proved against fat both through the campaign and beyond many people were not looking to the facts to make up their minds but we're willing to retrofit or ignore the facts as suited their deeper emotional attachment to the cause their spouse we saw the same in the Scottish referendum and we see it still with ever more imaginative interpretations by those of a nationalist inclination of the Scottish Government's own numbers on the size of the Scottish deficit to quote burns burns write that facts are chills that win a ding and Danah be disputed and happily anybody want a translation of that abroad remains facts can't be overturned and shouldn't be disputed and happily even in Burns his own home country the facts are very regularly being binged a lot recently facts did not change the debate and aren't changing this in short it was the sovereignty argument that won it the problem this leaves us with is working out precisely whose sovereignty tis that we have taken back control of sovereignty needs a boundary a state apparatus a national identity but the sovereignty of brexit has been led on the complex of existing identities within the United Kingdom so fair question to ask few ohms brexit sovereignty not the Scots at least not the sizable majority who voted to stay in the EU the some in the nationalist community sovereignty is indivisible and they Julie voted to leave the you haven't already voted to leave the UK but for most nationalists EU membership is part of the means to the greater end Scottish separation from the UK and there are many other Scots not of a nationalist persuasion whose view of this Union has been shaken by the decision to leave the other one not the nationalist community in Northern Ireland who also voted by majority to stay in the EU perhaps the DUP but they may by now have realized that if there is a planet on which breakfast it would further consolidate the place of Northern Ireland in the United Kingdom it's not this one and what about Wales not the nationalist community here nor the indi curious nor I guess most of Welsh labor perhaps then those who cleaved of British identity for many undoubtedly in all parts of the UK brexit is a reassertion of Britishness but that cannot be the whole of the explanation we know that identification as British is more consistent with an urban more culturally and ethnically mixed demographic not the heartlands of leaf support which leaves us with the nationalism that rarely speaks its name English nationalism and the evidence is there the correlation between self definition is English lots of work that Richland team have done and hostility to the EU and the apparent willingness of leave voters in their majority to prioritize leaving the EU over sustained in the United Kingdom has brexit therefore given form to something so long unexpressed in British politics this confronts I think any incoming government with an unprecedented concatenation of pressures whether we head through the exit door and into the fraught negotiations on the future relationship or towards a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement and another bitingly awful referendum campaign the swirling winds of identity politics that brexit was further strengthened unlikely to die down anytime soon no further trajectory of the three devolved parts of the is as uncertain as it has ever been the prognosis for Northern Ireland is difficult to read will have to be further assembly elections in another attempt to break the on pass will the d u-- pension for fame feel obliged to resurrect the executive beneath the surface the polls are seem to indicate a shift in sentiment not yet decisive enough to trigger a border poll but an indicative of a significant change in mood a mid-september poll had a slight majority in favour of unification as important and importantly younger people are more likely to vote for indicate to support unification and the older generation there is already a longer term drift of demographics in favor of the nationalist community whether through a front stop or a back stop one way or the other post brexit arrangements will lead to further integration of the all island ireland economy is brexit accelerating the momentum towards majority support for unification Scotland remains split down the middle on the question of independence most recent polls have been literally at 5050 though one just this week in the time saw support for independence dropping back to around 44% in other words around 2014 levels so some volatility that have been shifts beneath the surface as some who voted no to independence now prioritize putative membership of the EU for an independent Scotland over remaining in the UK in the other direction some former yes voters appear to be even less happy about membership of the EU than they are about continuing in the UK but the interesting thing all told there is now probably a majority of Scots who are the either voted already for independence in the independence referendum in 2014 who or who now according to polls say that they would there may be a bumpy few months ahead for the SNP for reasons which you can all guess out but placing a bet right now on the outcome of the night when you want parliamentary elections in Scotland would be very brave if the nationalists and their allies win a majority on an explicit referendum ticket in those elections can Westminster refuse another referendum without risking a lurch towards Catalan style dysfunction how would the Nationalists respond to that with such a scenario precipitator split between the gradualists and the fundamentalists either way not a comfortable situation for the stability of the country and what about Wales are we really looking now at about 20% of Welsh voters supporting independence as recent polls have suggested is this a quirk of disturbed times or the start of something new either way will we see the pressure on Welsh Labour to continue to outflank plied by certain ever more vigorously its defence of Welsh interests and how over time do they square that with a continued defence of the UK Union and wither in all of this England will all the passion that has been stirred up by the brexit debate simply seep away into the sands if and when we actually leave the EU what happens when people wake up to the inevitability that brexit is very far from being done and what if taking back control is not all it's cracked up to be espousing a cause like brexit even in defiance of the economic logic is still driven by a belief that it will make people feel better about themselves and their place in the world for community communities which had no control economically and politically marginalized buffeted by globalization and in comprehending of a metropolitan value set brexit was one way to put their stamp on the world what happens if nothing really seems to change if politicians are locked in endless debate about how to deliver brexit if the UK economy grinds along the bottom and the Slough of Brooks's uncertainty if Britain is palpably palpably diminished in the world what then for English sentiment so brexit I think is additional momentum to the centrifugal forces already apparent in the UK are these forces now stronger than those that hold the UK together certainly the factors that drive Britishness in the 19th and 20th centuries and earlier have longed weakened Protestantism Empire existential threats from a dominant military power on the continent there was some compensation in the second half of the 20th century through the common endeavor of the creation of the National Health Service in the welfare state and a common cultural identity reinforced by the BBC and there are still of course very important resonances there but devolution will over time ship perceptions of a previously monolithic NHS and the common cultural experience is eroded by the explosion of personalized content none of this is destiny there is nothing in electable about a slide into disintegration of the United Kingdom in no part of the UK is there yet a sustained majority in favour of dissolution or separation but the pressures are immense and showing no immediate signs of dissipating it stands to reason that the primary responsibility of any incoming prime minister ought to be the territorial integrity of the state they inherit nothing is more important I shouldn't really have to labour the point but the breaking up of a union such as the United Kingdom would be a shatteringly complex and disruptive business this does not believe Legation of the prime minister of the land to respect the sovereign wishes of those people who make up the United Kingdom indeed the duty to call a border poll if opinion in Northern Ireland looks as though tis shifted in favor of unification is baked into the Good Friday Agreement it was surely a huge sign of democratic confidence and good sense that David Cameron agreed to the holding of a legal independence referendum in 2014 when the argument was strong that a resolution to that question a once-in-a-generation decision was necessary to maintain the stability of the Union things of course have not worked out quite like that but that handling of the 2014 referendum remains an example to other more troubled parts of the world you would wish any Prime Minister to wish you would expect any Prime Minister to wish to avoid having to take such a step with all the risks attendant on it by extension you would expect the Prime Minister of the day to bend the will of the state to do its utmost to reinforce the value of this union to make the positive case for its continuation so where will a union strategy strategy be on the priority list of the incoming prime minister and what actions will that prime minister take let me have a quick look at the current state of affairs to ask what more if anything might be done to respond to the rising tide of identity politics the Welsh Government Hugh Rowland is not here tonight but might have been and tribute to here and all the work that he's done over the years on this has got there before me with a series of typically cogent and logical proposals for reform of the UK Constitution set out in their recently published document reforming our Union shared governance in the UK committed to the Union yet deeply uncomfortable with the direction of travel of the UK government above all on brexit the Welsh government has perhaps the most difficult position of all in these debates that tension obliges the Welsh government to be reasonable in its proposals but it always finds its voice drying that drowned out by the cacophony of more strident views there is actually little in that jimin's in their proposals that I would argue with but let me give my own take on what an incoming UK government might or ought to contemplate firstly on devolution devolution to Wales and Scotland and in its current form to Northern Ireland of course barely 20 years old and yet has undergone much change in that short space of time three Wales acts to Scotland acts I think I was responsible for at least three of those between them between the Wales and Scotland since the original lapse in 1998 perhaps speaks to of a hurry to get devolution done in the first instance in its own way a classic of British constitutional change pragmatic conceived and responds to pressure exerted from outside parliament announcing without a firm grounding in constitutional principle and thus incomplete so the changes subsequent on the 1998 acts could be seen as filling out that original conception of devolution as devolved governance has found its fees perhaps they're lukewarm support for the devolution in Wales in its very early days was reason to constrain the legislative powers of the assembly but once established it was entirely logical that the Assembly should insist on full powers to make its own legislation and to call itself a parliament likewise the almost token tax raising powers of the early devolution settlement of given way into Scotland out 2016 the wales acts 2014 and 17 - something that finally begins to match the power to spend money with the responsibility to raise it the decision to design a devolution settlement without reference to some sort of benchmark of constitutional principle has left them differentiated in ways which at the margins look perverse perhaps the best example is justice and policing devolved in Scotland and Northern Ireland but not devolved in Wales why as the Thomas Commission's found there is no good reason my view why the Welsh Parliament's and governments should not manage its own police forces just system and as the Welsh government has argued the case is made stronger as the devolved legislature creates its own body of law moreover t believe devolution remains something that is handed down from the sovereign UK Parliament to Wales Scotland and Northern Ireland this is constitutional principle but one that now seems very detached from constitutional reality in theory the UK Parliament could by its own and abolish the devolved legislatures in practice now unthinkable this may seem like constitutional pedantry but the that sense that devolution is only there by grace in favor of a parliament dominated numerically by one of the four parts of the Union is surely a factor in how the Union is perceived we have the declaratory provisions in the Scotland Act 16 in the Wales acts 17 is that sufficient which much push much harder on that brick and does the whole constitutional edifice start to wobble this is perhaps the central quandary for any future UK government can the ramshackle structure that is the British constitution withstand the pressure on it would an attempt at a major rebuild including an active union and radical reform of the House of Lords consolidate the union or simply lead to the crumbling of what might turn out have been load-bearing walls I see no easy answer to that question but it is one that cannot for much longer be ducked which brings us to England where counter again the transactional nature of British constitutional practice in the stop go stop go relationship between Whitehall and the English regions and localities each government seems pretty much to want to do its own thing which leads the unraveling of the efforts of the previous incumbents and precious little time for anything to settle down to prove that it can actually work the letting go of power from the centre is and piecemeal are liable to be reversed when a competing ideology overrules any localizing instinct of with health we have seen with school education perhaps Metro mayor's represent a point of no return when the momentum for the devolution of powers within England becomes irreversible that is probably so already for the Mayor of London and the Greater London Assembly it is probably become an inconceivable that any Westminster government could do to the mayor's office what mrs. Thatcher did to the Greater London council but Metro mayors and local government with our limited powers in the face of a still overbearing Whitehall can only absorb so much political pressure it's a sensible and sustained sustainable devolution with England within England is a course made tricky by the lack of identifiable regions of roughly equal scale and very different strengths of regional identities that makes some sort of asymmetry and arrangements within England inevitable but should not be an excuse for the failure to devolve meaningful power away from London surely one lesson of the brexit referendum is that sense of disempowerment and disenfranchisement in the English regions has to be addressed taking Brussels off the scene he's not very likely to change that lived experience for most people in the UK giving them a connection to a more localized policy with real power to improve the lot of local communities might England itself remains without represent representation other than a thin ground cover of English boats for English laws at one time I had the joy been responsible for evil many people believed it was responsible evil in the other sense the word at the national level England remains a puzzle not least in the spirit of inter government relations within the UK by any reckoning breaks it if it happens will demand a radical shift in the way that the four governments of the UK interact the current system of inter government relations was designed for what feels now like a very different era when one political party was dominant in England Wales and Scotland and when the division that devolved and reserved responsibilities was for the most part reasonably clean that has already begun to change with the devolution of tax and welfare pass but accelerates as powers come back from Brussels those powers almost by definition create cross-border impacts in their exercise that was the reason for Holden and the brussels level in the first place allowing each part of the UK to utilize those powers to the benefit of its own territory while at the same time protecting the internal market of the United Kingdom is going to require step change in intergovernmental interaction and decision-making the formal structure of intergovernmental relations will have to change to handle those emerging pressures how far that change should go will be contested as a minimum there will have to be a more concerted effort to achieve consensual decision-making in the policy areas where the so called common frameworks will be required to protect the UK internal market but who gets to decide when there is a disagreement should there at least be some sort of process to expose the issue at hand to mediation even of arbitration even if ultimately the UK government gets to assert its precedented right to decide the problem of course is that the UK government apps also for England this is the conundrum at the heart of intergovernmental relations within the UK England is only represented at a table by the UK government the UK government cannot therefore act as arbiter among or between the different parts of the UK the risk inherent in this particularly as perhaps unfolds is that disputes will always pit the devolved governments against the UK government more grist to a grievance mill a full structural answer to this problem would involve major constitutional surgery the creation of an English Parliament combined with substantially greater consolidation of regional representation with England neither you might think sadly or not are likely to be on any visible horizon but short of structural solutions there is something that the UK government can do at its own hand and that is to demonstrate by its actions that it respects the respects with which it treats intergovernmental relations that's partly about the effort put in so regular meetings of the joint ministerial committee but also about the outcomes how powerful would it be if a UK prime minister emerged from a meeting of the joint Ministerial Committee to announce that on the strength of the representation from the devolved governments the stated policy of the UK government had materially changed there's a litmus test for you if the Union is so precious the UK government will be seen to swallow its political pride from time to time and bow to pressure from those governments who represent the interests of the people of Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland one temptation for an incoming government will be to use the power of the purse to assert the benefits of the Union the city deals for the devolved parts of the UK conceived in the heat of the Scottish referendum campaign to strengthen the case for the Union rid redress a lacuna in the original devolution settlements the power of the central state to spend money in support of devolved competences which is a feature of most federal systems of government spending alongside the devolved governments as in the city Deal program can be a visible manifestation of collaboration for the common good but will only be that if it is genuinely collaborative and does not become a way of the UK government seeking to operate over the heads of the devolved governments but the power of the purse of course cuts two ways it is not passed England by that Scotland and Northern Ireland do pretty well out of the Barnett formula although there is almost certainly not much sympathy I'm afraid for Wales for whom of course it works far less well the Barnett formula meant to be temporary has proved to be enduring and has not delivered convergence by the objectively the financing of a union through an algorithm with such inbuilt inequities ought to be seen to be unsustainable in practice reform of the Barnett formula it will always be one of those things for next year and the resentments little by little will continue to grow one thing almost wholly in the gift of an incoming government is how the Union is handled in Whitehall this is a little personal it was my job for seven years through a Scottish referendum through major changes to the devolution settlements and through the EU referendum it's aftermath to try to get Whitehall to understand the changed nature of governance within the United Kingdom it has long been my contention at times felt like a lonely one that no policy pursued by any UK government department whether in reserved or devolved space can now be wholly successful unless it takes account of the interests of the devolved parts of the UK or learns from their experience you won't weep for me I've no doubt but I suspect this audience will have some inkling that there's sometimes felt like an uphill slog there are of course many Whitehall officials and there have been a number of Whitehall ministers who really do understand the nature of the times and that devolution does not require less attention to be paid to what is going on in the devolved parts of the UK as in devolve and forget but more attention to be paid to them I think we did make some progress over those seven years not least through the commitment of the great team I work with in a constitution group and in the territorial departments but there is a way to go for too many Whitehall officials devolution is in the peripheral vision both literally and metaphorically too many still count in what I now think of as Whitehall Myles whereby the distance from London to Cardiff is greater than the distance from Cardiff to London work it out think about how remote the outgoing government commissioned and redone lot to unpack these issues and make recommendations on how Whitehall can improve its devolution Act there is no one better place in Andrew to push this agenda up to the next level it is important and it is urgent and many of us will watch closely to see how the incoming government responds to his recommendations so there's my starter for 10 my manifesto for the incoming government's might put some heft into Union strategy commit to remove the final anomalies in the devolution settlement accelerate the process of devolution within England show respect for the process of intergovernmental relations concede on some policy outcomes specifically to acknowledge the interests of the devolved parts of the UK use the power of the purse to construct collaborative projects to show how the UK government works for all parts of the UK and reform processes in Whitehall to make UK government governance issues foremost and central to all that the UK government does this is I will agree quite a modest list no need to wait for a constitutional convention no need to create a federal structure no need even to reform the House of Lords long Avenue though that is but I fear I live more in Hope than expectation the manifestos are the two main parties are not exactly encouraging neither betrays much evidence of a recognition that holding the UK together might actually be the biggest challenge the next government faces Bar None burr exits and the more pressing and other pressing social and economic issues will be excuse enough to put constitutional issues on the backburner but under delivery on any part of that agenda and the risk is that separatist tendencies will be further strengthened so one final point I have no doubt that any incoming government will swear obeisance to the continuation of the union of the United Kingdom it should do no other but how deep will that commitment run ultimately the future this Union will be deeply influenced by opinions and attitudes in England blithe indifference or blanking comprehension can be as corrosive as active separatism this is really tough territory governments can make the law change the Constitution spend the money and devise the policies but shifting attitudes even understanding how the cumulative impact of their own actions are perceived is far harder most of what you might call the British establishment political and well be up beyond praise allegiance to the Union of the United Kingdom United Kingdom but I detect something of nostalgia in that affection a lightly worn assumption that the Union is a good thing because it's always been combined with something bordering on in comprehension that anyone would want to break it up there is a hint in this of what I think of as the background and radiation of the Big Bang at Empire the last faint echoes of the conceits that rule from London was benign and a good in and of itself it is hard at times to see in this the recognition that this is a union of four sovereign parts all needed persuaded to continue to pool their sovereignty if this union is to persist this is not about condescension and subsidies this is about the hard gritty reality of understanding the needs and aspirations of all parts of the UK of negotiations to achieve outcomes for the common good seeking compromise with political opponent opponents and subsuming short-term political gain in the interest interent in the interests of the whole at the same time are we seeing a slow draining of sentiment for the Union at the level of the English Street we've seen the polling of levers in general and conservative party members in particular who would prioritize brexit over keeping Scotland or Northern Ireland in the Union really even taking a discount for frustrations over brexit this is an extraordinary state of affairs that the members of the Conservative Party the party ostensibly most committed to preserving the constitutional status quo in their majority would rather see us leave a 45 year old Union mainly economic in its intent and purpose and preserve a union the ties of which are so much deeper and are so much older this is perhaps where the greatest challenge of all lies the incoming government sustaining this union will require the commitment of scarce political resource and time it will require collaboration and compromise how will this resonate with a voter base that is disengaging emotionally from the Union will the political will be there not just to the criticism of things done to show respect for the interests of the people of Wales Scotland and all Northern Ireland but also to seek to turn back the tide of indifference among the people of England on the answer to that question will hinge the future of the United Kingdom thank you very much for listening [Applause]

Channel: Cardiff University

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Length: 45min 1sec (2701 seconds)

Published: Wed Dec 11 2019