Blinken’s China visit: Can the US persuade China to rethink Russia relations? | DW News

Ukraine security is of course said to be a major topic for US Secretary of State Anthony blinkin during his talks in China blinkin wants to stabilize ties with Beijing but also to ramp up pressure over its close relationship with Russia Washington accuses China of helping Moscow with its invasion of Ukraine which it denies Anthony blink's visit comes at a challenging time for China us relations arriving in Shang I he posted this video on Building Bridges and of course we'll be dealing with u areas where we have real differences with China dealing with them directly communicating clearly face to-face diplomacy matters it's important for avoiding miscommunications misperceptions and to advance the interest of the American people as well as building his own Bridges blinkin will be trying to steer China away from Russia accusing Beijing of backing moscow's war in Ukraine China continues to provide materials to support Russia's defense industrial base and all of this is fueling Putin's War Machine as he attacks ukrainians and threatens European security China insists it remains neutral China has always controlled the export of juuse items in accordance with laws and regulations relevant countries should not smear and attack what are Norm State tostate relations between China and Russia it's not just the war in Ukraine that's causing strain the discovery of a Chinese spy balloon in US Skies last year added to tensions along with us support for Taiwan with three days of talks in Shanghai and Beijing blinkin has his work cut out smoothing relations between the superpowers with US Secretary of State Anthony blinkin in China for talks I'd like to get some analysis by bringing in Rory Daniels managing director of the Asia Society policy Institute a us-based think tank a very warm welcome to the show today shortly before Anthony blinkin arrived in shangai the Chinese State News Agency quoted an unnamed Ministry representative as as essentially saying the US is interfering in China's Internal Affairs and and smearing its image what kind of Welcome do you think blink can expect well I think that both the US and China are in incredibly tight political environments right now um you've just run a very moving piece about the war in Ukraine which is an issue that the US and China have deep deep differences on so I think that blinkin um will have a standard diplomatic welcome a cordial welcome but certainly there are a lot of issues to address in the US China relationship that will require some very candid and uncomfortable conversations um and I think secretary blinkin is is well poised to uh continue those conversations well let's talk a little bit more about the Ukraine issue which as you've said will be will be high on the agenda last week blinkin suggested that Beijing is essentially playing a double game Here Wanting good relations with Europe while also supporting Russia is his assessments a fair one do you think absolutely I think think that Chinese economic and strategic priorities lend themselves to these types of policy contradictions on the one hand China does need the European market as an export uh export market for its goods on the other hand it has uh an equally to itself important economic relationship with Russia which is becoming an increasingly vital part of China's energy security but also its food security as it seeks to further development between China and Russia on you know grain um trade so I think that beyond that strategically China while it understands the intense International concern and approbation of Russia's violation of Ukraine sovereignty also sees is very sympathetic to the Russian view that it's been provoked by an expanding Alliance Network and when China looks at its own periphery and its neighbors and sees so many US allies and partners trying to balance its economic and military power in the region it lends itself toward supporting Russia so you can see how all of these different strategic priorities do create contradictions in policy and that's exactly why these visits such as the one by Secretary of State blinkin are so important it's about you know influencing that balance of interest in ways that are favorable to peace and stability not just in Europe but all over the world so what kind of influence do you think it is realistic that blinkin could have here given those interests and Chinese worldview that you've just described I think it's going to be a challenge for sure I think part of the understated value of these types of visits is that it does give each policy Community an opportunity to kind of reassess its interest in regards to that balance that bigger strategic balance um and that type of action forcing mechanism or conversation foring mechanism that makes each policy Community really sit down and say you know do our policy assumptions work for the time that we're in can be a slow movement of the needle over time I think right now in us China relations things are so tense um and particularly you know China's uh very strong opposition to us support for Taiwan does block opportunities to cooperate or to rethink those strategic prior prorities r large but it doesn't mean that they're not important opportunities to gather information and again to consolidate each country's own thinking on what it needs from the other side yeah tell us a little bit more about that because of course the relationship with Russia not the only controversial point you've hinted at the Taiwan question the US Congress has just approved a new Aid package for Taiwan which includes arms support for the island how do you think that is going to play out in talks with a blinkin in China I think it's one of the most sensitive issues for the Chinese and really reflective of uh deep deep differences in how to approach the Taiwan issue you know the aid package that was pack uh that was passed is relatively flexible so I think that some explanation might be useful for secretary blinkin to give on how that Aid package will be enacted if if that comes up in conversation I think that would be helpful um but I think overall all you know there remains a sense in the US policy community and I believe in the US government that the best option for peace and stability in the Taiwan straight is for the US and its allies and partners to help balance China's uh military power and particularly its coercive power over Taiwan through these types of military aid packages so I think all of those issues will certainly be on the table and I think China will give uh very strong opinions um against increasing us Taiwan defense cooperation well thank you so much for sharing your insights with us today that is Rory Daniels from the Asia Society policy Institute my pleasure thank you and I'm very pleased to welcome Kelly Grio with the Simpson Center a foreign affairs think tank in Washington DC for more on this story now we've heard uh Biden is promising military aid is on its way very shortly after he signed off on millions of dollars in new spending for Ukraine before we turn to blinkin in China I just want to ask you how much you think this new Aid package will help in Ukraine yes well thank you for having me uh I think the new Aid package will help Ukraine to be able to sustain its defense this year uh it still has the very significant Manpower crisis which you were just speaking about but it will help with huge shortages ammunition air defense weapons and the real question then I think becomes what will happen after that this could potentially be the last major uh Aid package from the United States and so how Ukraine will find a more sustainable um path um on defense and the timing is interesting isn't it just after blinkin landed in Shanghai how do you think the passage of this Aid package will affect the Secretary of State's discussions in China yeah so I think it's quite interesting that one of the issues the administration seems to have made its priority in this in this in these meetings is the issue of what they see as Chinese support for Russia's industrial base uh from the Chinese perspective they argue that the US is upset about dual use Technologies things like machine tools and uh semiconductor Parts but that those are things that are just part of normal trade uh the United States obviously feels differently about that and and I think it's interesting with this Aid package I can imagine the Chinese as part of their response will say well you are sending weapons to Ukraine we're not even sending weapons to Russia they have held back on that um and I think this will be actually one of the major focuses of the meeting and a real point of tension now given that Dynamic what tools does the us actually have in its belt to try to push China to reduce its support for Russia yeah you know it's interesting because this is what I find so curious about the administration choosing to highlight this issue is that it has very little room for maneuver on it and to actually influence China um ahead of this this these meetings there was a story in the Wall Street Journal that the Administration has drafted sanctions um to impose on Chinese Banks now the problem with that is that many of the Chinese Banks um that deal with the dollar actually have already stopped doing trade uh facilitating trade with Russia because they were already worried about secondary sanctions and as a result a lot of the banks that are doing this trade with Russia are now these secondary Regional banks that don't deal with the dollar so the kinds of sanctions they're talking about imposing would actually not Target the very banks that are are conducting this kind of trade now it's interesting then like you say that they're hanging their hat on this as a major issue for the trip we should say this new Aid came as part of a law that has included two other things that China likely won't be very happy about let's look first um at one provision forcing Tik Tok to either sold by its Chinese owner or be banned eventually in the United States this over the United States concern that data could end up in the hands of the Chinese government will this be raised in discussions yes I mean I think this is actually taken um the Chinese a little by surprise because there had been a similar Motion in March um in the Senate and it hadn't passed so I think they thought that that had sort of resolved itself um you know leading up to blink's trip uh a spokesperson for the Chinese was asked about this and they essentially said that they didn't have a comment you we could refer you know look back at other what they've said in the past they've opposed this kind of effort in the past um I think that this is likely to play out though not as much in diplomacy as in us courtrooms uh this this this law will be challenged um in US in US courts on First Amendment grounds and in the past um the courts have ruled against this kind of forced sale of Tik Tok uh so I expect this will probably play out in the coming months and years okay now looking at blinkin in China um again it it this this um package passed by Biden this law it also does set aside assistance to Taiwan this is another sore point for Beijing and Beijing has condemned it as a dangerous provocation on this issue will they be able to find any Common Ground yeah so I think there is one place where they'll find Common Ground potential which is that uh in next month a little less than a month from now um there will be an inauguration for taiwan's new uh president and I think both sides are very concerned about this moment and trying to make sure that things remain stable and there isn't some kind of inadvertent escalation so I think on that there'll be communication about that the Chinese have signaled that they would like uh secretary blinkin to publicly reaffirm again us support for a one China policy I think there's a high likelihood that we will see that beyond that though at least in terms of the issue of the kind of military aid the United States is providing to Taiwan I don't think that there will be any movement on that issue I think the United States will hold firm so just to bring this all home what will the metric to by which to measure success be here what does blinkin need to come away with from this trip to call it a win yeah I don't think we're going to see any big deliverables or announcements on this trip I think the this if I would to give it a slogan I would say it's agreed to to disagree that's the sort of the theme of the trip will be agree to disagree and the success will be the fact that we're actually engaging in face-to-face diplomacy and that there'll be a a reaffirmation a recommitment to continuing to make um you know government to government contacts and dialogue something that had broken down and really until San Francisco in November and just basically continuing with that process um and remaining committed to it well thank you so much for sharing your insights with us today that was really Val that's a Kelly GCO from the sson center

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Length: 14min 10sec (850 seconds)

Published: Thu Apr 25 2024