Blackjack Stress Test: Never Bust #2

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here are two carbon copy shoes six that blackjack dealer stands on all 17 No Surrender shoe number two of never bust versus basic strategy this is actually take number two thank you so much - Daniel Potts for catching a couple of errors that I made in never bust those errors being you know not following basic bust a couple of times and you know reverting to the habitual basic strategy it's hard it's hard to keep track of two shoes running at the same time when it's keep going burn cards and also to break the habit of playing basic strategy and never bust it's just not natural for me and probably not for you or well for most people who play basic strategy for a long time to suddenly start doing these things that you've taught yourself either to do or not to do a lot of it being like you know hit a 12 in you know into anything higher than well you lent it pretty much anything gotta get my head around this so that's that's what happened so I ended up having a scrap that phew I agree with Daniel Potts that one the blackjack gods would know as he put it and also that you know making that mistake shifts the flow of the cards again which is why we're running two separate shoes that are exactly the same so that we can see how not hitting when you're supposed to or what changes the way the cards come out of the shoe that come out in the same sequence but at different points and in different hands okay so basically I'm really gonna try if you catch me making a mistake please say something in the comment hopefully I won't you know or say it before I move on to the next hand and maybe I'll hear you somehow alright 13 hits 14 19 we're gonna play one side at a time or I will really lose it 11:21 okay 13 never bust stands yeah 11 12 17 so that's still a loss and you know you you know what I was mostly expecting was that basic strategy would burn through more cards because the players gonna be hitting more often you know never bust didn't take a card but as you as we see never bust took more cards for the dealer it's things are still not exactly lined up but we found I saw that in the first shoe that things would line up sometimes you'll be in just a full hand or two behind and sometimes exactly right on I thought that was really weird it's also hard for me to deal from this side this is the unnatural side I need to check for the ace it's not there 20 stands three thirteen nineteen 12 stands 20 anyways each strategy starts with 50 units it's it's one unit per hand units can be transposed two dollars or whatever currency you're using you know five 2100 whatever you know six whatever you whatever you're actually playing at I do a basic strategy follows the basic strategy card that is available from The Wizard of odds apparently some people have an issue that I have to refer to the card quote have to I do refer to the card so that I don't make mistakes because it imagine if I started like screwing a basic strategy that invalidates in mind all of our testing so I have it here I don't always have to look at it but something you know sometimes I there's a lot to think about so I'm going to look at it you want to Kurt you know you want to criticize me for it I guess waste your time I'm not gonna stop having the card and I don't think that you should stop taking the card with you to the casino either should you know it sure of course do you should that stop you from taking the card to the table with you know so so basically never bust follows basic strategy up unto until you are at a hard 12 or greater so this um this part 18 to a6 according to basic strategy you do double down on that because it's really just an 8 okay that's how just making it clear that how I'm trying to implement to apply things now it's a hard 18 you you're done hitting anyways 1120 so let's see what else what else was gonna say oh yes you know there's been a lot of comments on the first shoe it's also criticized for even attempting to conduct these tests in the first place that it's you know reinventing the wheel that it's well established that basic strategy is the only way to play and that never bust is is a fool's errand okay maybe let's let's find out that that's all and hey a lot of people are finding this video watching it liking it substandard and I thank you've gotten a lot of new subscribers lately that's it well to that soft fourteen ten twenty so people are interested in in this insurance insurance closed it's not there 15 stands for forty no take from the proper shoe please that is a nineteen anyways the point of this is not really even to see in my opinion if never bust can be profitable that that's very hard to determine what I'm trying to find out is will it perform better than basic strategy will it lose less than basic strategy on a losing shoe or will it gain more on a winning shoe so today basic strategy is down by 10 at the end of the shoe and the never bust is down by 7 that means it never bust did better if it's never uh basic strategy is up by 10 and never but is up by 15 then never bust did better but if it's like down by 10 and down by 20 well that's not so good for basic or first aren't for never bust alright anyways insurance returns close 17 stands 20 so what we're seeing right now is a kind of a bad shoe so far and it's working out more or less that way for both 15 stands I forgot to do the ACE check it doesn't matter see okay I'm gonna stop talking a little bit get my head in the game so I don't make mistakes I'm still here it's not gonna try to think so much that's when things get dangerous when I try to think okay 14 stands 13 20 that will just remind you by the way that I am keeping track of the number of hands that we play 20 stands 12 16 26 and also let me just make it clear that I'm not endorsing the never bust over the basic strategy I think some people seem to think that I'm not really endorsing basic strategy over over never bust either I'm just comparing the performance of the two I don't I'm not also not recommending that you even set foot in a casino but if you do your choice that you are free to make 16 stands well 22 all right now shut up for a little bit let's do the ACE check this time it's not there 9 hits 19 16 26 just get these out first see look they lined up didn't they sure looks that way I only matched the card values I don't match the suits it however make its 52 cards in a deck six decks so that's three hundred and twelve cards which I go all the way to the very end which helps me make sure that I didn't miss anything I don't need to do the suits you don't play by the suit so it doesn't matter sure if you're playing a side bet like the like they have sometimes like with the was it like the Queen of Hearts game ace check but we're not doing that at least not now five nine twelve fifteen seventeen let's just make sure three five nine twelve fourteen sixteen see six ten that's all that's only sixteen isn't it yeah 16:23 can you see like get it out here let's I'm not can't tell where you can see that is a bust you're gonna criticize me for counting the cards or you know making sure I got the right the proper hand okay so now this will work differently because after 12 he's not not gonna hit so that is nine twelve stop right there twelve fourteen sixteen 23 so look at that I can hear Daniel pots right now I told you so that's he's wait that Daniel is waiting till the end of the seventh shoe series and the summary for never bust to outperform basic strategy so he can tell me that and I guess everybody that I told you so because this is a he says this is the way he plays and I'm actually surprised by the number of people who do play this way oh I guess we actually yeah we burned this we went through the same number of cards again because the dealer took more so it's insurance both sides insurance closed it's not they're just making sure it's not there twelve will hit that is a 17-2 or twelve twelve twenty-two 12 2 or 12 17 dealer stands on all 17 look come on let me just have I made any mistakes yet I hope not really trying 15 that stands nine thirteen twenty three each check not there 20 stands 1621 okay that was the first ten hands like I said I keep track we have consistently gotten at least 45 hands out of a six-deck shoe I perhaps penetrate a little deep but that that's okay because the only reason that they don't let you play very deep in the casino is so in case you're counting cards it leaves enough behind that cut card that there's still enough randomness in the few and since we're not counting cards or at least not applying card counting nor changing or deviating from either these strategies or the wagering doesn't matter okay deal 9 doubles down to a three single card right there that would make for 13 9 19 and 13 will stand remember that it wouldn't hit to a for anyways Dwight should I maybe I should hook that up 9 16 22 I love getting Elevens I prefer to personally I prefer to double-down than anything else and I've contemplating running a system where everything instead of hitting any to any time you get cards like well even even like this doubling down why not I'm sure I get a lot of a lot of heat male comments on that all right that's 18 13 23 all right let's check for the ACE not there six takes a card 15 stand there fifteen twenty three you should have doubled okay 70 now it's doing a check not there seventeen stands 17 push pair of sevens not you're not gonna split that to attend and you're not going to hit this time either not for never bust so 20 normally you would 14 hits 24 20 stands 1418 right not there 17 stands 1626 7/8 check not there 17 stands 20 I think it's more personally more fun to when they make you wait to see what your car it is tada see isn't that more fun it's time and a half that quad is a quarter but it represents a half unit it's what I've always done in these I don't have it some other proper half unit to use 2017 Lulu back-to-back maybe um am i doing anyways yeah while I was saying about the strategy card print out the card take it with you and use it at the table when we got here that frees up your mind to do other things to look around to you know order a drink 18 stands to talk to other people I find that if I have to obviously most of basic strategy should be it should be obvious but there's a few things that happen like around the forest did just get confusing especially when you go if you're at dealer stands on on top 17 or or hits on all 17 or all soft 17 or if you're playing single deck there are some changes and it's just why bother trying to keep it straight in your head when the card is available and you the the casinos least milk scene of every casino that I've been to they don't mind if you if you use the card and there is always another player at the table who you know especially if you're playing lower limit tables like I tend to do who's all will ask you know and maybe they're new and there you go well what should I do and you can tell them what the book says and they'll look at you like like like you're crazy sometimes or they won't listen to you but if you can show them on the chart maybe that will help them that you know somebody has already figured this out and your your best long-term odds are to follow that so I you know I agree with that anyways soft 16 what does that make for a 15 20 20 plus all that work for a push insurance and turns closed it's not there 14 will stand 5 15 15 16 26 what I usually will say though in support of deviating from basic strategy is you know those are basic strategy was done it was figured out I guess by computers and applies over millions and millions of hands etc you're never gonna play millions of hands so while that is statistically the situation it's not realistic you know a six next year you get forty five hands let's say it's even fifty what's that what's the map how many shoes is that to make a 1 million hand and you need to supposedly run millions of hands feet in stands ten twenty it's just it's not gonna happen not for a normal person soft sixteen soft eleven this was a mistake I made in one of the other shoes that's 2117 again I you know when I was looking what I got confused about on another shoe was this is less than twelve this is less than a hard twelve so you should hit it and and I did not really realizing that that was a twenty one guess who caught that one yes he did and I'm it was so close to the end of the shoe that I actually did a correction on it and that was in the take one of shoe number two for never bust versus basic strategy and then he discovered something else like much earlier in the shoe and it really screwed things up so it wasn't worth trying to salvage so that caused a little bit of a delay in getting this next shoe out because I first had to set up to do that correction and then I had to set up to do this you know I don't have all the time in the world but and I know you don't either so I appreciate you sticking around and watching my videos okay 12 hits that is a controversial hit people will tell you not to do that especially never busts players 17 7 11 16 23 kind of running out of room but that's alright and 20 stands of course 15 17 okay that was another 10 hands down so we're now in for 20 I would say that the basic strategy is up or well no not up there both I can tell that both sides are down basic strategy is leading by maybe two or three a lot can change but I just have to stack the whites next to each other yeah up by 2 after 20 or down by 2 never bus again relative to each other not in absolutely time well 20 will stand 18 7 hits 12 stands stands anyways 9 16 26 yeah okay alright 13 stands to a26 Oh what is that 13 16 17 base check just flip it not there obviously you're not gonna hit that 1815 1525 okay you have it sort of better you just split those tens on these are not flat checks they don't pay time and a half blackjack is only the first two cards this will be your third card 21 or 11 you could double that if you play long enough you don't see it happen we won't you only get single cards anyway so I should lay them down this way 17 so this one is a win this one is a lose overall that's a push if we were doing another progressive system that's how I would treat that as a push leave that there seven popped 18 to a seven cannot double obviously and you should stand yes I was looking as making sure that is also a push yes 18 18 all right 7:15 stand there 11:19 insurance insurance clothes not the worst well I can think of worse oh look at that about multiple splits and double downs to a dealer six and he turns a five and turns it into a twenty-one that's worse okay ace check I'm just gonna look 1916 Oh what is that let's go over here far too many twenty-four right you know split these threes two or three then do this one first thirteen you're good there three cease off 14 now that's just a hit because it's just the 400 nice shoot this one goes back here that you got back it up here just make sure that we're on all the right color okay who try again anybody else kept said I was pulling off of this side for this few is again this is the side you normally come from fortunately I caught that okay 11 that will double down single card 19 we're right here 311 doubling down again 21 aren't you glad I use the right deck seven seventeen winner winner okay let's clean this up house nice see love doubling down I love splitting and doubling down that certainly does put never bust in the lead that was hand 25 okay insurance insurance closed it's not there 16 needs a card 26 5 15 17 16 17 push keep your head straight try to be quick but try to be accurate ace check Oh yuck sixteen will stand 12:22 okay 17 stands 12:22 insurance insurance closed not there 17 stands 20 fifteen stands six 1521 just like a real casino 20 stands nine eleven twenty push this Deanne 13 20 stands 10:13 what do you not want what I call the most important card in the game the five of spades no the I consider the eight to be the most important card in the game the card you want or the card you don't want with either the card that helps you or the card that kills you a lot of people are going to think it's the tenth I don't know how to prove it but that's just what I think that it is the eighth doubling down to ten to a dealer nine thirteen nineteen no good alright let me just I was off that was hands dirty so where two thirds of the way in and what we expect play for this six-deck shoe and onward 18 will stand 1626 13 will stand for never bust 1220 there's that eight could have used that eat [Music] okay 15 we'll hit to a dealer 924 uh a stuck here it's not there 16s got a stand only four never bust just be clear on that now you will see people arbitrarily decide to do you know to play never bust the sixteen to attend the this time they're gonna go nah he doesn't have it under there so I won't take his bust card I'll you know are not hitting my sixteen and sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn't I don't know what the ratio is but that's not what we're doing here not not trying to here and there pick and choose when to play never bust for doing it for the entire field that's to me that's the only way to do this and you know send those times when they don't hit that 16 to a 10 and it works out and they win as you as you I think you can see it messes up the flow of the cards for the whole rest of the shoe so you know what yeah they won that time that but did that result in them losing the next five hands that they would have otherwise won and had they lost just that one hand but we're trying to find out here ok no ace they're 11 will double down 20 20 push gonna leave that there for now the 15 the 4 never bust will stand and not survive ten doubling down to an eight eighteen yes eighteen push again nineteen stands 11:21 tell you things are pretty much evening out in the tips back here or actually gone back to being two three units in favor of basic strategy relative to each other I think they're both down a little bit but we have at least ten more hands to go things can change plenty stands 12 22 17 stands 10 20 Oh picture monkey what do you say when you get the ace you start tapping the table one of my favorite calls ISM is the call for monkey I call that I like to call the ate the Snowman look at that double a to space nice all right let's say you is that does the dealer have an ace no did you get a monkey no soft 14 soft 15 hard 12 17 make sure you can see that 15 25 a lot of work it's all good anyways you know what they say eights and aces right even to attend did I check ok no ace let's go before I really screw things up oh-ho-ho-ho-ho wrong side let's just make sure we're all the right color here yes ok who this one first twelve never bus stands eighteen stands twenty lose both this seems familiar I wonder if perhaps never bust his is now at hand or two behind fourteen fourteen twenty three this will I think it'd be one hand behind yeah it looks like it is it's off 1512 oh whoa not hitting see how easy that is to make that mistake you just get in the in the habit especially because right now we know what what happened over here close one fifteen that goes that's supposed to be there folks Daniel but instead it is here for the loss wasn't supposed to stop in at any other point no and we're in soft numbers okay I don't want Daniel or anyone else to catch me making mistakes because then I have to figure out how to fix it even if that means running a whole nother replacement shoot which I really don't want to do I want to get through these don't like to keep you waiting but doing my best eleven double down 2119 14 stands 1424 okay 11 doubles down single card 1811 1620 I'm checking pair of nines to a nine is a split do I care if you don't think I should check no I don't this one first nineteen that's good this one nineteen also good oh maybe we used up all the ten yeah 11:17 never bust really needed that to stay competitive here as we are heading into hand 40 so getting thin and missing out on a lot of double down opportunities over here well looks like you're gonna get one though oh definitely but you have to get those when he's not single card 17 14 19 different results perhaps yo 11 I guess from the proper shoe please sixteen twelve sixteen twenty-four what did I see I told you so I told you so Daniel staying right now hear him and hear him hand forty like I said second to clean these up and keep track and we got five hands left and the gap is a basic strategy by two so you know where they say that never bust increases the house edge by approximately 5% five and a half percent we'll see at the end in the summary what that act that what that actually adds up to now is that over this super long term no what I would consider you know seven six deck shoes it's a average session not for me actually I play usually to play a lot longer than that but not everybody does it's a number that I came up with in order to you know I can't go on and on and on but I can't you can't just do one or two even three thirteen twelve twenty-two 14-9 1424 okay blackjack again for the player time-and-a-half something that has not yet happened or never bust it's happened three times over here this is something else I like to do when possible like if they giving you half units I like to not use them or cash them in that way I can just kind of - something else to do keep track of how many black jacks have gotten it's obviously not a perfect system because sometimes you do have to cast him in or play them but you know try it's actually sort of meaningless and anyways how many black jacks you've got in your session anyways um what is that 31313 stands 17 okay 16 hits to an 8 22 bust first blackjack for thee never bust ace check not there 15 hits 16 hits again 26 lakh queen of diamonds huh and that side two purely coincidence sixteen stands beat team oops you want the dealer to hit the eighteen okay this is hand coming up hand forty-five so we've made it as we expected you know I do put that cut card a little bit deeper than they may do with the casino again like I said since you're not we're not applying anything like card counting it doesn't it doesn't matter so much we're not changing the way we bet and it gets us a couple of extra hands is that good or bad guess it hopefully evens out over time twelve will stand to a dealer five fourteen twenty to see the eighth card you want through the card you don't want each check it's not there sixteen will stand anyways for for a system like never bust 15:25 Z you didn't take the dealers bus card that's I think the biggest concept philosophy on never bust is that you stay in the game instead of busting yourself out even though you could often improve okay here we go and forty six okay 414 is just a hint 14 it's again 1817 six let's H check it first yes okay not there six cichlid it's it's soft this will stand at 1315 24 that's how never bust is supposed to work please check not there 10 does not double down to attend 2013 19 fifteen stands for 14 14 24 19 stands 7/10 18 14 stands 10 13 23 that was hand 48 now here is something very surprising to me is about to happen basic strategy burned through cards oh no no that is what we expect never mind not so surprising see so it's hard it's hard for me to just keep track of everything I don't know I was thinking that never busted should have run out of cards first but that is of course backwards and this and that right there is why I keep the strategy card around because it's a lot to keep track of and let's not make mistakes if we can help it anyways even though often in the casino if if the cut card comes out before the next cards in in the hand the casino will often not play it I go ahead and play it again because counting cards and that sort of thing has no effect for us here anyway 12 to a3 you're gonna take that card for basic strategy and people are gonna yell at you yes they are and I'm sure you've had it before what are you doing no you did then you show them the card which is why you bring it to the other reason another reason why you bring it to the table and then you bust and they go look but then you say well look doesn't matter I lost either way ten doubling down to a nine 13:19 now never bust is going to continue it has it's in a different point in the shoe not much different there's the cut for this side for never bust thirteen stands eleven thirteen eighteen okay so was at forty nine hands for basic strategy and fifty four never bus so you know one hand difference and certainly a difference in the chips I mean exchange those color those in don't have to do that over there let's count them up 10 20 25 30 35 we didn't get into those that's fine probably won't most of the time don't forget this okay so that was um excuse me um that was thirty five forty fifty there's your base there's your buy-in if you came to the table with 50 units everything else profit ten and a half units so ten and a half units that's actually indicates a good shoe do it like this if you're playing a five-dollar table that's fifty to fifty sorry yes fifty - fifty okay never bust did you break even we will find out 10 20 25 30 35 okay again didn't get into that that's five units so 35 40 45 50 there's your buy-in at least you got that half a unit up okay difference of ten units that's pretty substantial but it's one shoe or a second shoe we got five more to go we'll see we'll see where we get to again just to recap basic strategy 49 hands up by ten and a half never bust fifty hands up by a half of a unit thank you for watching please like and subscribe make comment if you see a problem please let me know and if you have constructive criticism I'm happy to hear it okay thanks so much fight [Music]

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Channel: Eight of Spades

Views: 17,741

Rating: 4.4545455 out of 5

Keywords: blackjack, basic strategy

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Length: 59min 32sec (3572 seconds)

Published: Thu May 03 2018

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