BJP Vs United Opposition I What do the Numbers tell us about Elections 2024 ? I Barkha Dutt

[Music] thank you speaking in pole bound madhya Pradesh the Prime Minister has lashed out at attempts of opposition Unity calling it a photograph that displays United corruption I'm barkhadat yo with the Mojo story a special Focus today is on the BJP versus a United opposition what might that picture look like in 2024 elections make no mistake election season is well and truly here speaking in election bound madhya Pradesh which is scheduled for assembly elections later this year the prime minister in fact lashed out to the attempts at opposition Unity using the images of that big opposition meet in Patna he actually said that the one thing that died these leaders together apart from their desire to defeat Narendra Modi is in fact charges of corruption but what is the data tell us if we are to break down the numbers how do we understand the politics of the time and is month the advantages reported proposed formula possible which is that she wants that at least in a 450 seats there should be only a one-on-one contest with the BJP in other words one party or one formation taking on the pgp is that even possible we will put these questions today to our newsmaker on the program cyphologist political analyst the man who leads sea water and his data often illuminates the politics of our time let's welcome yashwant Deshmukh now to the special broadcast I know a lot of you have been waiting for this uh this program and you have questions and comments coming but let me start yashwan by thanking you and asking you to step back and look at the big picture arithmetical political Unity has been attempted before it was attempted in fits and starts even in the last election it hasn't really worked for a variety of reasons math doesn't mean chemistry the opposition hasn't been able to settle its leadership is issue and in many States the opposition that is presenting a united front nationally is in competition with each other but do you find anything a little more serious a little more different about the opposition Unity meet in Patna this time uh the thing that might be taken seriously that at least they are trying so far there was no attempt not even a remote attempt to do anything of this sort so I guess that from that perspective uh you know that much of credit can be given that much of a head start can be given but buying that burkha uh as you mentioned the chemistry and arithmetic sometimes the chemistry is matching arithmetics is not there sometimes the Irish practice is doing the trick but chemistry is not there so uh all in all when I look at all the number of faces over there uh there is also the fact by car that big number of people particularly the operation Chief ministers who are there are also facing now significant anti-incumbency individually against them so I I find it difficult to understand that uh you know merely coming along together formulating a common minimum program or something like that if that is going to be good enough to pull up the show so let's uh let's actually look at a sort of data that is publicly uh now available for anyone to decode but I think you will decode it better than uh than anybody else uh we know now that if we look at 2019 they were about 186 seats where the BJP and the Congress were in direct competition we also know that because of the enormous popularity of Narendra Modi at that time the Congress in fact was you know did very badly when it was the Congress versus the pgp put it directly against the other the Congress is hoping this time might be different they're hoping for recoveries after Karnataka in States like madhya Pradesh certainly and chhattisgarh they're hoping to hold on Rajasthan of course is a is an open question the Congress is is on the back foot there my question to you is what should the Congress be hopeful of direct contests or or a kind of a more uh sort of dependence as it were on Regional parties I think Congress is slightly confused for I think they are pretty much looking at the big picture that we need to be a national alternative to the BJP and this is where the conflict is starting between the position rank and file that okay should the Congress completely give away the states where it is no more uh uh kind of uh force that it used to be or should it kind of consider a smaller significant yet extremely extremely strange Road when I say extremely string flow for example in uttar Pradesh what was the Congress performance in uttar Pradesh assembly elections and now ideally speaking Congress should be in the fold of samajwadi party Alliance and at all uh if bsp joins in that would have been the brief scenario for the position Alliance but Congress would probably start with saying that we were 35 Congress is not even in a position to contest five seats and entrepreneurs right now in fact buying two seats they do not have any presence anywhere left as such as far as the Lok Sabha elections are concerned or without elections are concerned so how low can Congress go in terms of adopting or in terms of realizing that this is what our real strength on the ground is for this opposition Unity that is the key question going by the noises that the Congress leaders are making post Karnataka I don't think that they are really mentally prepared uh of sorts to to to take that less number of seats in different states so this is going to be an issue uh this is not going to be an easy thing to tackle from the Congress yeah so let's take up uttar Pradesh you mentioned up and many uh commentators believe that up is the litmus test as it were off this opposition Unity a formula now this is of course an extraordinary wave election result that we're breaking up the vote share on uh but if you look at it the BJP and the Apna Dal have almost 52 of the vote shares and the others minus the PSP is is almost 27 but even if you add the bsp and there's no chance I think of that happening but for an academic exercise let's add it the BJP vote shares still out uh out numbers uh the the other you know an absolutely United opposition now of course vote share doesn't equal seats in a parliamentary Westminster style a democracy but when you look at this division of the vote share from uttar Pradesh in 2019 what are the two warnings warning for the BJP and warning for the opposition from these numbers our first warning to the BJP that these numbers are pretty much the root cause of any complacency that might treatment cannot be complacent about opposition Unity no they cannot be competition just we are not just about opportunity but they are one 51 vote share for a simple reason that bjp's performance in up in 2014 then 2017 then 2019 and now 2022 uh you know four back-to-back election contest the BJP has been sweeping up like anything but our data simply tells that their MPS and their mlas are gathering such strong anti-incumbent sentiment because they are not working on the ground then actually it is the representative who who misunderstands the Mandate completely they feel that they you know they they can get away with it and they stop working so for the BJP the biggest warning is that because of huge number of non-performing mlas and MPS they they they they can face a very strong anti-income at the micro level you know but if they can change big number of seats which they can very well change and you know and and then then it's a different thing so one warning for the BJP for the position warning worker the best kind of Maha in a position that could have happened was that has happened in 2019 you know bsp and spr are the two biggest players in up Congress is a French player Now understand this getting Congress in and letting bsp go that is a huge loss game I don't see Congress even at one fourth of the bsp would share in any uh any formulation so if the bsp's own kind of support base in the state is supposedly about say 20 percent then Congress is not even at five percent so if the madhubani party is thinking that okay getting the Congress in and getting the bsp out is something which is going to you know compensate for the loss of the bsp it is one is to four in terms of uh strength on the ground and everything is concerned this a position Unity would have made any impact if SP Congress rldn and bsp of them in uttar Pradesh they come along together with the one on literally one-on-one contest on each and every seat then the bipolarity of that might have some kind of impact but that too we know the limitation because of the 50 plus vote share of the BJP but still there would be an impact there would be some but consider what are the odds of having that kind of a seamless Alliance for God uh already mayawati has hit out at the position conclave in in Patna I I I don't think and those who understand politics they would also understand that mayawati probably is playing the bjps game by just playing solo by just going so so so that is yet you make a very important point that the bjp's mlas uh cannot afford to be complacent Karnataka has shown that performance does matter and however popular the Prime Minister may be he cannot override always the non-performance of uh of of his uh either legislators at the assembly or his parliamentarians uh in Parliament I want to play out Rahul Gandhi this was before the patta meat but it was quite a realistic uh appraisal he didn't make any Grand claims of opposition Unity this is what he said when he was asked why is he not supporting arvind kejriwal uh on the issue of the center's ordinance on the Delhi power distribution listen back to politics how United is the opposition in India and why isn't Congress supporting kadrawal in the ordinance on the ordinance issue well that's a that's an internal discussion we are having uh the the opposition is pretty pretty well United and I think it's getting more and more United we're having conversations with all the opposition you know and I think quite a lot of good work is happening there okay yeah there's I mean it's a complicated it's a complicated discussion because there are there are spaces where we are competing also with the with opposition so it's a little bit of give and take is required but I'm confident that that will happen okay so he acknowledges that it's complicated and the complication has surfaced in the rupture between the ahmadmi party and the Congress yashwant the Ahmadi party has taken a position by the way supporting the uniform civil court thereby being the first party to in a sense break ideological ranks with other opposition parties who are fleeing uh the move uh division early signs of the kind of headaches the kind of problems that can come with this opposition Unity model I think up is a very unique uh phenomena in its own way it doesn't really fall typically in the opposition Rank and file uh ideologically speaking or from the uh from the concept of issue based politics is concerned for example arvind kejriwal has taken many times on Triple talak or on the common civil code all for that matter 370 and which probably goes very well with the right of Center uh support base you know which he gains a lot during the Assembly election in Delhi for that matter so I don't think arvind kejriwal is pretty much in the same Matrix that the position Matrix is is followed on uh he would fall off probably even on the common minimum program the things which the combined opposition parties are likely to pay however there is one thing which even crazy well has coded rather well and that is something which I believe that a potion parties are unable to code or for that but a congress is anybody believes and rightfully believes that if they are the principal opposition of the BJP then the Muslims will vote for him regardless of which position he takes on which particular issue and that's probably why he dares to you know on 370 or uniform civil code and like that while somehow in the Congress particularly and some other position parties as well they feel that this ideological divide or political lining lining is so important that if they deviate on that line they will lose the Muslim votes now this is something which has a kind of intrigued me a lot in terms of practical Politics as well as ideological politics because the ideological is speaking everybody says like you know today is here and you know on on this spectrum where does he land we don't know but politically speaking he has swept Ali twice on this one politically speaking he has actually won Punjab which nobody thought of in that way the way and people do not talk about much about the gujar election verdict casual sure did not win anything in Gujarat but the 12 percent vote damage that it inflicted on the Congress that actually resulted in the historic mandate for the BJP over there so yeah all in all the the damage that he can do not just in Gujarat but probably in many other states which is his numbers grow uh uh is a very very different thing yes I understand and I can clearly say that there is nothing for BJP to cheer up about kejriwas rise anywhere because in the first line he might and look like eating up Congress but eventually it damages the BJP as well this is why you remember Gujarat election in the last two weeks literally BJP was itself campaigning for the Congress that their fight is with the congress not with the uh yes so I remember that what do you what do you think of the proposal from the Ahmadi party to the Congress that you sit out the Delhi election and we'll set out the elections in madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan I don't think the Congress will be in any mood to do this going by Ajay markham's attacks on the Ahmadi party uh but this this this offer what do you think is it intriguing is it to be taken seriously not at all seriously I mean that's that's very insulting offer actually uh I I think but the way when when I say that Congress is asking too much more in up or Bihar like that is offering too much less in Delhi and Punjabi like that it's ridiculous offer I mean how can you you know do politics like that probably if they at all they want to contest together Congress will have to play the junior role now that shiladi is no more there you remember on her own actually in 2019 many viewers might not know that in numbers Congress became a number two party in 2019 Lok Sabha elections when he was there she herself contested party was pushed to number three rank in 2019 so it's not that uh Congress doesn't have a Traction in Delhi but after can it hold on to that kind of Attraction I doubt might be a kind of a five to split to contest or four three at best might work for for amadi party and the Congress together but having said that I am very clear even if and I can say with full confidence I'm almost in that way even if Congress and the party contest together for the Lok Sabha elections I doubt the score line is going to change maybe it will become takes one maybe maybe but not least the Indian voter is a fascinating entity who's able to vote completely differently in assembly and completely differently in Lok Sabha Delhi no better example of that than than delhi now I want to before I play out the prime minister's comment on opposition Unity I want you to talk a little bit about four significant Regional entities who are not part of the BJP camp and they're not part of this opposition camp and the most important in them and we can show those pictures now to our viewers uh is actually KC Rama Rao because he he actually had attempted in the middle to be the leader to take the role that nitish Kumar is now now taking Telangana is scheduled for elections he's staying away um then of course you have jagan Reddy uh who is staying away he I think he'll never forgive what the Congress did to him for strategic reasons uh has lashed out at the opposition meet and finally of course is Naveen patnayak who isn't part of this group uh either uh do you think there could be other Regional leaders who might tilt this way or do you think the ones who have chosen to attend the meet in Patna they're quite clear that their survival needs to be positioned in opposition to the BJP whatever they may think of the Congress is one more smaller party which for personal reasons did not attend the meeting that is the rld of Jain Chaudhary yes all right I mean all said and then in politics the Optics matter and we know every time whatever is said the personal and professional visas are not really the same the way they are so keep an eye on that uh I would I would like to keep an eye on that yes yes yes uh but uh kcr is probably facing a very very strong anti-income very strong empty incumbency at the moment in our last two motion polls his numbers at the chief minister have been consistently among the bottom most Chief ministers uh they could not change the guard with his son uh in time but doesn't that mean he should need the uh the support of the uh of the Congress actually exactly what I am what I am thinking and I might be thinking around but Congress is actually getting a lot of traction in Telangana at the moment after uh after their victory in Karnataka so what happens if the Congress graph goes up in Telangana kcr graph comes down in Telangana BJP is trying its level best to become the number two party but suppose if it remains number three but all in all all in all in the next and we have Telangana election right in the next uh we are sitting in June yeah July August September three months probably three to four months but at best for Telangana elections what happens and I am saying hypothetically because uh the reason of hypothetical is that numbers uh might vary but if there is a hung assembly with kcrs number one party and and the kcr is unable to form the government will they form the government with the Congress do you think if Congress becomes the number two party no then the third player is of the NDA opening up you know so so so just to ensure that this is this is precisely the reason that kcr even after doing all that uh hopping tour of meeting different Chief visitors probably two or three times we remember his press conference with the nitish Kumar we were laughing like anything at that point of time you know but he went to meet nitish Kumar all alone but at the invitation of nitish Kumari refused to go I mean doesn't that sound strange we were saying can I can I underline what you've just said because it's very important you're saying despite all of the trading of charges the vitriolic battle between the BJP and and what is now called the BRS the bhartiya rashtriya samiti you do not rule out the possibility that if the Congress does give uh that the BRS a run for his money in Telangana then kcr if need be if need be happy there are lots of qualifications we have to put there could join hands with the BJP to keep the Congress out absolutely after all in meghalaya election didn't we here party to be told as the most corrupt party in India and later on form the government with the BJP home minister made the remark in meghalaya campaign so I mean this all all as we now uh what we call it what they say and what they do after politics and I am serious about this year this is a very important point that the kcr channel to the BJP could be reopened I think that is the important point that you're underlining what did you mean one more thing yeah do you remember in 2009 Lok Sabha election kcr contested independently in fact on his own and alliance with in in a so-called Alliance or whatever whichever way you say but the day Telangana polling was over the next day kcr went and went met Mr advani and joined the NDA it was a very very strange politics that kcr played in 2009 he was not part of the NDA between the election results and between the only the Deep Telangana polling got over kcr the next day met advani and joined NDA before the election results came up so kcr is the typical situation and phenomena we have to read it that way is going to contest all alone is going to win all alone doesn't want to prop up the Congress at any point of time because they are good primarily consists of anti-congress phenomena right from the Biju Babu days so I don't think that that equation is going anywhere Andhra Pradesh is typical because TDP we have heard a lot about the recent meeting of Chandra Babu Naidu along with the home minister Amit Shah but it's a kind of a state where 25 Lok Sabha seats might go wherever the wind is growing you know no matter who wins right now would Ally with anybody who is forming the with the government at the center so these players are kind of very uniquely praised but they are somehow more uniquely placed to help out the BJP rather than the opposition uh just a quick comment on kcr and his courtship of Maharashtra before we play out what the Prime Minister has set an opposition Unity do you think this requesting of the BRS the TRS to BRS a lot of people in the party were not very convinced of it Casey Ramada really thought it was his movement he showed his National Ambitions do you think he did that too quickly or do you think and one thing we haven't spoken about is what a catch-rich resource Rich party uh the BRS uh is unlike many of the other small Regional parties and maybe kcr had hoped that that would give his partisan heft in the opposition landscaper that hasn't quite happened how do you look at kcr's interest in Maharashtra I think kcr is on I mean somebody needs to call the bluff on that uh kcr is only positioning for his Telangana assembly elections you know what he is only trying to do is to tell the people of Telangana that see I am a prime ministerial material he is kind trying to invoke the Telugu biddha sentiment which used to work for you know we remember the narsima Ross time we used to use this term a lot so he's trying to work out on the telangana's emotion that if I will project myself as the prime ministerial candidate Telangana people will take pride in me and if they take pride in me at least in Assembly Election they will certainly vote for so yeah this is nothing Telangana Chief ministers all the attempts are nothing but to win Telangana Assembly Election that's it nothing more nothingness what happens in a scenario if telen Ghana hypothetically is not won by the BRS what happens then unless the number two party which from all the qualitative means and some of the numbers that I am getting probably is going to be the Congress now no more the BJP uh you know in after Karnataka the BJP uh has the number two position in Telangana has kind of slightly slipped as number three position in Telangana suppose if Congress becomes the number one party but for short of majority then what then there would be a very distinct possibility of Telangana I mean now the BRS and the BJP coming together and forming the government somehow I don't see I don't see BRS and Congress coming together yeah and that is why the opposition Unity is such a difficult thing to achieve now we have about a couple of minutes left with you let me just quickly play out the Prime Minister the prime minister in pole bound madhya Pradesh talking about opposition Unity listening foreign foreign [Music] [Applause] foreign [Applause] [Music] elections to be an aggregate of State elections the Prime Minister says this coming together is an Aggregate and averaging of corruption allegations this has been something that he has uh yashwant also done before in his swipes at the opposition but he's acknowledged he's acknowledged the attempts here at opposition Unity uh he hasn't ignored it he's trying to in fact convert it into his to his Advantage yeshwat how did you see the prime minister's remarks foreign okay let's let's listen while we while we have yashwant back on with us the other statement that the Prime Minister made uh where he attacked the what he called the parivarwad of all of these opposition parties listen ing [Music] is [Music] [Music] foreign [Applause] foreign [Music] [Music] [Music] go up board [Music] [Applause] yes you're back with us two pronged attack by the Prime Minister nepotism and Corruption but I was saying he is not ignored it he could have ignored it he's actually using the phenomena of this attempted unity and working it into his campaign how do you see the prime minister's comments I think I think uh the best thing about how the prime minister or his party colleagues do their politics is that they are serious about it they don't take anything lightly I mean any possibility of ignoring or not taking anybody seriously or you know they go about it 24 7 and and that's probably their biggest strength at this point is while dealing with what prime minister said and they are going to probably look into the sentiment or tap into the sentiment that actually post 96 between 96 and 99 that united front government experiment I think that taken that has taken this so-called uh Alliance as a very very negative sentiment people in India do not really want to vote for instability you know they they they largely in the assembly level one was the last time we saw any hung assembly Baka even the hung assemblies which we had to deal with was Maharashtra when all four went together and it was still was clear in terms of number Jammu Kashmir where the Kashmir and Jammu regions itself are two different things to go from the voting equation so people are not voting for any any hung Parliament or hung assembly anymore I think BJP and the Prime Minister are trying to tap in that emotion that these are the smaller people in other words in other words in other words picking up from what you've said the opposition needs a leader absolutely they do need a leader and that leader cannot be nitish Kumar I am very clear on them can I show you a poster uh where you just said that just one second you you like this poster can we bring up the poster you see the size of nitish Kumar in this poster he says purely from the numbers on the what are the chances of nitish Kumar the prime ministerial candidate going around entire India and saying what telling the Mumbai voters what are the chances success stories do sell and and even more serious leaving the rjd first when he won the Mandate with rjt and then leaving BJP when he won the Mandate with the BJP twice he has insulted the Mandate for personal reasons for his personal gains I think these flip flops have taken the brand Equity of nitish Kumar uh probably and and I I you have given me a brilliant idea actually in this conversation I might even put up a question that's the way I ask about between Rahul Gandhi and and Narendra Modi I might ask my team to ask a question between nitish Kumar and Narendra Modi and my gut feeling is nitish Kumar is probably going to score lower than Rahul Gandhi because in the National numbers of the the you know verbatim numbers of whom do you want to pick up the as the Prime Minister Rahul Gandhi is still getting 17 18 percent nitish Kumar is not even getting two percent already this is not official but this has come out from politicians who attended the meeting the 450 seat formula basically arguing that at least in 450 seats you cannot have a triangular or a quadrangular contest you you actually need a straight head-to-head contest between X entity and the BJP right uh is this possible is this realistic this is realistic and Mamta Banerjee is probably speaking understanding fully way the problem she is speaking facing in West Bengal right now you know she knows very well that the incumbency is growing up the anger against her government is going up and if left in the Congress start contesting together even if they pull say 15 plus vote seriously even if they Chip Away 10 percent of the minority votes uh calculation will go for a toss investment so it it actually it makes full sense she doesn't want left in the Congress to kind of contest all 42 seats on their own and you know which can bring the Harvard chair down and invariably help the BJP but that can possibly happen when they are in complete sync just like the formula that we were telling about we are discussing about in uttar Pradesh left Congress in Mamta in complete same where they actually contest seats which are in do you do proportion to their actual ground strength what is the actual round strength that is something which I believe left in the Congress are not going to be do you think left will be accepting four or five cities in West Bengal this is the state which they ruled for 30 years uh that's the problem that but as far as Mamta is considered she is saying it because she understands that in her own home state the odds are stacking against her and that stacking is going bigger and bigger every given day now in the panchayat election we are very near to the panchayat election investment ball for the first time the number of uncontested candidates have dropped drastically last five years back uh tribul Congress almost won 25 percent of the seats uncontested that number has got down to only 10 percent even that 10 percent is a blot on Democracy from any practical perception perception but but mamta's test is very much in this panchayat election and you will understand very well why left in the Communists are contesting full steep in this panchayat because the more votes that they pull they will have a better chance of negotiation if there is any chance at all all right quickly uh I the same question I asked you but in a little more a sort of sharper way uh is there anything apart from the anti-incumbency against individual MPS that the bgp needs to worry about when it looks at the opposition uh you know which is also understood that that this is about their survival is there any one thing that you know if you were let's say talking to a friend in the BJP you would say I think BJP is getting carried away too much with the polarization uh phenomena they they are over hyping or overestimating the the impact that the polarization can actually deliver it to them be it 14 B8 19 majority of the voters which voted for Modi and BJP they voted on the developmental plan developmental phenomena and by overriding or overarching or overhyping the polarization thing I think they are undermining their own work uh somehow I but I I totally get this that BJP is unlikely to think in that way probably I mean because the way their leaders speak the way they they do their campaign um uh you know I still feel they are going to continue with that kind of uh polarizing campaign but uh but more and more they are doing it I think they are undermining their own performance their own track record of governance which by the way is kind of appreciated by a by a huge majority in this country the kind of development that is happening yes unemployment and inflation are two big things people want something to be done on an employment agenda but uh but huge majority is impressed with the development infrastructural development that is taking around but by focusing over hyping the polarization thing I think bbp might end up undermining Their Own Strength on the impact of government very important and interesting point and one I would personally actually uh agree with and let's see what sort of campaign we see developing uh we're well and truly here in election season I know uh yeshuan the sea voter survey has a very interesting uh opinion poll out the first significant poll on madhya Pradesh and we hope to have you back tomorrow with us to look at those numbers thank you so much for talking to us uh always learn a lot thank you and take care [Music] it's great to see you here thank you for watching our work if you haven't subscribed yet don't forget to click the Bell icon And subscribe to watch your story and support independent robust judgments [Music]

Channel: Mojo Story

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Keywords: barkha dutt live, barkha dutt mojo story, barkha dutt, mojo story live, india, news, politics, nitish kumar, opposition meet in patna, congress, bjp, narendra modi, modi vs who in 2024, 2024 lok sabha elections, mamata banerjee, arvind kejriwal, tejashwi yadav, prashant kishor, prashant kishor jan suraaj, rahul gandhi, mallikarjun kharge, opposition news, dmk, kcr, maharashtra, delhi, aap, kejriwal

Id: jqmLb3zY6Hs

Length: 40min 49sec (2449 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 28 2023