Bitcoin Halving Dates and Chart Analysis

so bitcoin is kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place at the moment it's not really training anywhere it's sort of consolidating in this range between thirty and a half thousand and twenty eight thousand not a lot happening for the past two weeks obviously it's gonna break out at some point either up or down and i'll be the first to tell you i don't know where it's going to go i don't have a price prediction in the short term i do win the long term and we'll get to that in a few moments but if you're used to youtube gurus just opening up trading view slamming a couple of lines on the chart and saying that they know what's going to happen it's a baloney nobody knows with 100 accuracy is just everybody's best guess and when one out of their 50 predictions comes true they can say yep called it by the way my signals group just five bucks a month sign up now it's not gonna happen here so as you can see clearly here's a 17 centimeter pattern reversal from the 2012 level combined with the fibonacci 16.9 buy my signals let's keep it real here and smash the like button so we can keep it real on a much bigger scale and doubly smash the like button for last videos best comment by i'm unsubscribing are we sure people won't run into safety when tether collapses what is the safety in the crypto market bitcoin and this actually got me thinking about bitcoin now shame on i'm unsubscribing for not being subscribed so he's missing out on the glory comment below if you want to be featured in the next video so bitcoin at the moment is not really trading based on any technical foundations maybe accept the good old support and resistance which you know can be used in conjunction with the rsi the moving average the fibonacci but that's a topic for a different video what i do know reasonably well is that instead of looking at chart patterns and candle patterns and zodiac signs and constellations a much better way to look at bitcoin right now is through the dynamics of supply and demand in fact it's a much better metric to try to predict where the price will go and what we're seeing now is sort of this psychological battle between the demand side and the supply side playing out on the charts what do i mean by that well the price is stuck in the middle because the demand dropped massively with the highest raising of interest rates since bill clinton was the president the lunar ust crash and the stock market sell-off all these factors have created a risk-off sentiment lowering bitcoin's demand and sending the price down but this lower price point is also attracting higher demand from institutions and retail investors who really believe that this is the bottom for bitcoin and that we cannot possibly go lower in particular the institutional interest which is super high at the moment because many of these jillion dollar companies bought bitcoin during its insane bull run and if the price drops much lower they're set to lose a lot so in large part bitcoin's demand is held up by hope at the moment and by the fact that if it goes down many powerful individuals are losing a lot of money powerful individuals don't like to lose i mean binance's ceo just lost 80 billion dollars this year in crypto alone and there's actually rumors that he's now a shift manager at his local mcdonald's i respect that it's all about diversifying the cash flow just kidding but if you remember what i mentioned in my previous video is that crypto trust is fading and crypto trust is the main driving force behind crypto demand now obviously this is evidenced by the fact that we lost around one third of the market cap this year no brainer right and the very uncertain geopolitical situation economic situation is actually pushing people to take their money off these risky markets and park it somewhere else and collectively this leads to more supply selling pressure and less demand as you know crypto is probably the most volatile out of all asset classes so folks are more likely to ride out the uncertainty on more stable boats like gold or forex even though those two are devalued now due to the inflation now let's get to the meat and potatoes if we're thinking in terms of market dynamics between supply and demand there is one cyclical event that almost always leads to higher demand for bitcoin and thus higher prices and right now we're pretty much smack dab in the middle of the cycle called bitcoin howdy in fact it should really be called crypto halving because the run-up in bitcoin almost always increases the prices of altcoins as well i'm going to show you this having chart in just a second and explain to you why i'm more bullish in the long run but first let me try to explain why i'm less bullish in the short term in the current crypto timeline we saw a huge dent to the total market cap when fed raised the interest rates around 200 million dollars were taken off the table and the fed is already proposing further rate hikes in their summer calendar when is the next raise that is hard to say but researchers from the economist believe that the fed may raise their interest rates a total of seven times in 2022 and if we sum these expected seven hikes together we get a grand total of a three percent interest rate hike for 2022 now a 0.5 raise erased around 200 million what happens when it's three percent i can tell you it's not looking good for crypto in the short term and remember for a second the major force behind bitcoin's movement supply and demand and if you didn't know this when the fed raises interest rates their primary objective is to combat inflation but the way they do this is through lowering consumer demand so we have the big rule makers actively trying to combat demand and crypto well it's definitely not an everyday necessity so the way we could see a rise in bitcoin's prices in the short term would be a massively increased demand but we have the rulemakers trying to combat this demand so that is one of the primary reasons why i think through these interest rate hikes crypto ain't gonna recover at least not this year and i'm not alone in my analysis just yesterday i conducted a peer-reviewed double-blind placebo phd study that indicated that 40 of you think bitcoin will end the year under 20 000 per coin so all of this good news if you're a short seller make hay while the sunshine so to speak loads of opportunities in both crypto and stocks but i also wanted to look at something more hopeful in the long run and i believe this coincides perfectly with everything i just told you about the interest rates and it will prove my point why i think that the next bitcoin bull run is gonna start somewhere around 2023 and here is my best argument based in simple supply and demand and a bit of a backstory because this is an inclusive channel and there's some beginners here who might not know how it works so bear with me and the way bitcoin works is that satoshi the guy who created it made it so that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins in existence it's just one of the reasons why bitcoin is priced higher than other cryptocurrencies where the circulating supply may run into hundreds of millions or even billions or trillions scarcity is hard coded into bitcoin's network and right now we have around 19 million bitcoins in existence which brings us to about two more million bitcoins left to be unlocked you know unlocked for buying selling and holding who unlocks them well it's the infamous bitcoin miners they validate the network and keep it running so to speak by solving complex mathematical equations with their gpus or designated mining rigs and for doing this they are rewarded in bitcoin and bitcoin halving is this hard-coded algorithm which basically shrinks these rewards in half every four years it essentially slows down the pace at which new bitcoins are generated in 2012 there were 50 bitcoins unlocked every 10 minutes today there are just 6.25 bitcoins generated every 10 minutes and around 2024 bitcoin will slash its rewards again and there will only be about three bitcoins generated every 10 minutes so a better way to understand it is that today right now today 900 new bitcoins will be generated and added to the circulation in 2024 after the fourth halving it will shrink to 450 bitcoins every day and then 225 in the fifth halving and so on and so on until about the year 21.40 now why is this bullish well for the long term this fixed bitcoin supply actually protects it from inflation unlike the fed bitcoins cannot be printed endlessly there's only ever going to be 21 million bitcoins and this halving is sort of a built-in mechanism for creating demand which is good every four years there's less of something that everybody hopefully wants so the price naturally increases as well now that was a bit of a tangent on bitcoin mining but how does this play out in our long-term bitcoin analysis well according to this bitcoin halving countdown we're about one year and 333 days away from the next halving a supply shrinking event and historically bitcoin has always been in a downtrend sometime around two years before the having which is where we are now and then it's always started to rally right around the year before the having which puts us somewhere around spring 2023 and then the most astronomical gains have always come one year after the having which puts us right after the fourth bitcoin having in 2024 and i think this having historical chart offers us a prime example of how supply and demand has affected the bitcoin market and drove it up every time and i also think it offers us a much more realistic expectation of when this bear market is going to reverse and start trending back up again because once again i want you to remember this every time before having there's a downtrend one year precisely one year before the having starts to trend higher and then one year after the having starts to really gain some traction up now of course bitcoin could reverse sooner because hey it's crypto and sometimes things don't make sense but i would say with around 60 to 70 conviction that we probably won't see another bitcoin all-time high up until about the year before the halving which is in line with around mid 2023 which coincidentally is also expected to be the turnaround point for the bear market in stocks as well it could really be that we have to wait a little bit for the inflation to be curbed and equity markets to recover to see some serious meaningful gains for bitcoin as well time will tell but i think my argument is pretty tight provided that tether well you know what just watch my previous video and find out about all the secrets that tether has subscribe peace by the way a quick side note it says here that around 20 of bitcoin have been lost so actually the supply is a little bit less and actually that means the price should be a little bit higher subscribe peace

Channel: Finance Illustrated

Views: 3,610

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Id: rTK7EbnU1l4

Length: 11min 13sec (673 seconds)

Published: Tue May 24 2022