Bitcoin Fair Valuation at 2024 Halving

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse today we're gonna talk about bitcoin and we're going to discuss what the fair value of bitcoin likely will be at the next having in 2024. if you guys like the content make sure you subscribe to the channel give the video a thumbs up and also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com now in this video we're gonna take a stroll down memory lane we're gonna talk about some prior projections we put out uh back in 2019 and 2020 talk about some things that that you know seem more or less in line with what happens and some things that aren't that didn't play out in the way that that i i sort of saw back then but i want to go through this so so people really understand my current perspective on the market okay as you guys know i've been relatively bearish recently albeit i i do think we could easily have a a relief rally in the coming weeks but even then i i don't really anticipate bitcoin seeing as surge to new highs this year okay we're just sort of going through that that bear market phase and you know whether you like it or not i thought that is currently where we are so what i want to do is we want to talk about the fair value of bitcoin okay this is different and and when i say fair value in this context i'm talking about fit to non-bubble data not all data okay so there's one regression line that we sometimes talk about which is fit to all data and perhaps i will just bring that up so you can you can see what i'm talking about it's this one right here it's the yellow line that's fit to all data okay i'm talking about the green one fit to again quote-unquote non-bubble data and what we've noticed and what we said a long time ago is that the price of bitcoin tends to correspond to the fair value fit to non-bubble data at the bitcoin having okay so for instance in you know in 2012 the having at the having the the price was the fair value was around 13 and the price was was not far off from 13 at the second halving in 2016 the fair value was 650 at the third having it was 8 000 when we first made this video though we were still about six months before the next bitcoin having and actually at the time the price of bitcoin was actually around the same price that it would be at the having but look at what happened between november 2019 and the having right you can see we went all the way down to 3 800 and then we bounced back up to the fair value by the next bitcoin having okay so when we talked about this we said what is non-bubble data right how do you how do you come up with this was somewhat subjective right but i i mean i came up with some mathematical exercise back then um to basically distinguish between what i would consider non-bubble data and and bubble data and and i and you can kind of see i just i i highlighted the the data points that i used in this calculation in red and everything that was in sort of just in blue is excluded from the calculation of the fair value regression curve so it only includes the the red data points okay and you know i use this and i only fit it through data going into early 2019 and despite that you can see that you know it was fit through data around here okay but it still did a relatively good job of of continuing to identify the you know the the accumulation phase that that continued on right this this continued accumulation phase just like we had in the prior cycle as well and just like we had in the cycle before that okay so you can see that this happens every single time before you get a fresh bitcoin bull market okay and furthermore the thing that i want people because going in in line with the title of the video we want to talk about what is the fair value of bitcoin by the next having and the reason why that's important is because i i think there's a lot of you know anxiety right now in the market there are a lot of people constantly worried that they're gonna miss bitcoins pumped to 100k or something but you know realistically speaking you know given the fact that we've you know we've identified for months now that bitcoin is in a bear market and and we are just in a general we're in a macro risk off time there really is no real reason to assume that bitcoin is about to go to six figures unfortunately okay um we recognize that it is a bear market it has all the characteristics of a bear market in terms of putting in lower lows the dominance going higher all bitcoin pairs bleeding we've seen this many times before and there's no reason to assume this time is different when you've seen it happen multiple times and it's played out the exact same way okay so with that in mind could we have relief rallies of course we probably will i mean i even put out a video a few weeks ago saying that i think we're gonna have a relief rally for bitcoin coming up in the next few weeks that could even take us back to 40k for all i know but i want to talk about how you can best plan for the next several years with bitcoin and and and and how you can have the right mindset to navigate to navigate the cryptoverse right now okay so we know at least if history is any indication that the price of bitcoin corresponds to the fair value if it's non-bubble data at the having okay we said this we've mentioned this many times before you can see in 2019 um this was november 24 2019 we talked about um you know at the having the fair value would be around eight thousand dollars i think we were just slightly above me like 8 500 and then we made a follow-up video you know at the actual having saying that we would expect um you know we would expect bitcoin's price to be at around right eight thousand dollars after having and it was okay but then we continued that projection out to the fourth havoc okay and you know despite the fact that this video was made two years ago i still think it's valid for the fourth having and if i just sort of fast forward this is what it looks like okay so this is certainly the the the actual timing of the peak i didn't get correct when i drew it out back then right i did not get that correct when i drew it out back in 2020. in fact we had a peak in early 2021 and that was where you know that was where it happened quicker than i thought it would and and just be completely honest i mean i i took a lot of profits in early 2021 because you know the risk levels went crazy and then the the second peak in late 2021 sort of threw me off to some degree because um you know it it was more or less a double top and the risk levels didn't go as high but what you'll notice though is despite the fact that you know we didn't really hit that 100k threshold we still likely make our way back to whatever the fair value is by the next having so in in this instance i drew it happening later on and if it had if it hadn't happened later on i do think bitcoin would have gone higher than than 69k one of the reasons is if you go look at say the upper regression ban we we tend to make it to it even though we only brushed up against it very slightly we do tend to make it to the upper regression man so you could argue that if this mania phase had had been delayed by another year then perhaps we would have made it you know to the six-figure milestone however unfortunately you know we had a fairly impulsive rally that just took a straight up all right something that i was also this is sort of a tangent uh but i was i was sort of noticing something and i haven't really pointed it out before but it is worth watching once we leave the green regression band except for a few fake out and we've had some fake outs but oftentimes we don't we just go straight up to the top right and we don't lollygag too too much down here you could argue this was a long accumulation phase but really once we got out of the green regression man we just went straight up to the top and then we came back down right we got out of it we just went straight up to the top so we'll be certainly looking out for that uh following the next having but in following up with what we said over here we said this was back in 2020 when the price of bitcoin was eight thousand dollars i said by the fourth having the fair value of bitcoin will be around 40 to 50k okay 40 to 50k now does this make sense does it make sense to be 40 to 50k well back here the fair value fit to non-bubble data back in may of 2020 was again around eight thousand dollars at the third having it you're essentially looking at a at a five to six x or so to get you to the next having the the fair value at the next havoc if you look at where we are today and i've drawn in where the prior havings were again you can see that every halving we more or less hit the um sorry i think i had true this one one year too soon um november 2012 is is when it should be uh you can see that the price of bitcoin at the having is at the fair value right so it's at the fair value every single time so if you were to extend this out you can see now the fair value of bitcoin fit to non-bubble data is in fact currently it's just below 23 000 which coincidentally also corresponds to the two and a week moving average all right there's some a lot of coincidences there you can also see the last cycle we bottomed at the 200 week moving average which also was at the fair value and that also happened in the cycle before that as well so personally i think that we could see a relief rally but i don't i'm not convinced that 25k is the bottom okay i'm certainly not and and given the fact that we still have you know 22 months before the next bitcoin having we certainly have plenty of time to test that theory as to whether 25k is actually the bottom now one thing to consider the bottom tends to correspond well before the having okay so for instance in in this cycle the bottom occurred in november of 2011 but by the time we actually hit the having bitcoin as it already had already pumped almost 400 percent in the cycle before that one by the time we hit the having you know the price of bitcoin had pumped 250 or so from the cycle before that one the price of bitcoin by the time we hit the next halving had already pumped about 150 so you can see this is this is around 350 this is around 250 this is around 150. so every single time the the value of bitcoin at the having it corresponded to the fair value but it wasn't actually the cycle bottom okay the cycle bottom was actually less right but the pump from the cycle bottom into what would be the fair value by the having you can see it's diminished each time i think a lot of people have trouble envisioning bitcoin going below the prior cycles all-time high but i think something to consider is that you can see that from this top to the next bottom it was about a 400 percent move but the following top to the next bottom it was only about a 150 percent move or 200 movers so so you can see that yes we've never tested a prior cycle's all-time high but we did get closer on the second time than we did on the first right so this time we'll probably get even closer if not even go below it right it's certainly a possibility and it is the case with diminishing returns that you might see that now the other thing with diminishing returns is that theoretically you'll also see diminishing losses and we can see that normally these bitcoin bear markets they tend to not be quite as bad so like the first bitcoin bear market went down about 94 but the second bitcoin bear market only went down a very modest like 87 or so the third one though went down about 84 percent so we have seen diminishing losses already for instance by the last cycle by the time we hit the bottom we had already at the at the fair value is already 84 drop but from this all-time high to get to the fair value it's only about a 70 percent drop or so we could certainly go below it as we've gone below it in the past we've gone below the fair value in the past but it just gives you an idea that we are potentially seeing diminishing losses as time goes on so we sort of follow up on this video and say well does it make sense that bitcoin's fair value at the next having could be approximately forty to fifty thousand dollars and i actually do think it makes a decent amount of sense if you think about it you know bitcoin is already at 30k okay and if we were to speculate out on the next bitcoin having we don't know exactly when it's going to be but it's it's likely going to be some time let's say april 2024 okay so let's draw it out right here we'll see that's where the next bitcoin having is now one of the things we can do is we can just sort of expand out these logarithmic regression lines right and just say all right well this will continue to go up something like that and and so will the fair you know the actual fair value part of it and then the lower bound okay this is obviously not an exact an exact match because it does the regression band does sort of fold over as time goes on but it'll look it'll more or less look something like that and you can see that if we expand this out the fair value which is currently at around 23 000 or just below it by the time we hit april of 2024 the fair value of bitcoin should be around 40k which is what we said back in may of 2020 right the by the 2024 having the fair value of bitcoin should be around forty thousand dollars now when thinking about that how do we get to forty thousand dollars um by the next having well let's suppose that bitcoin continues the bear market okay so let's draw out some type of of a path okay so we're going to say let's suppose we get that relief rally a lot of times after putting in our first lower low you do get a relief rally that happened here in 2018 and it also happened in 2014 as well so let's suppose the bitcoin gets some type of relief rally um but also normally the first lower low was not the cycle bottom it was the second one that also happened in 2014. so if this is the first lower low let's suppose we do get a relief rally uh within the next month or two and and then we come back down to re-test the bottom of this range and then if we do end up falling back to the fair value by let's say like the end of the year or something and maybe we'll sort of us you know move around in this area for some time and and perhaps you do get a capitulation below the prior all-time high right something like that but we could potentially work our way back up to be at around the fair value by the next bitcoin having okay so that's certainly one path that i think we would need to contend with and what's interesting is that you know if we continue to accelerate past that we could be at 60k you know or 70k or something by the end of 2024 and we could still be in the lower fair value regression band fit to non-bubble data even though that 60 000 level would have corresponded to the prior cycle's all-time highs right but in a couple of years that'll actually correspond to the to the fair value fit to non-bubble data and so then if you get some type of of a rally which takes you out of it then you're you know you might you might see something like this where it quickly goes up to the upper regression band and then we we enter that into another into another bear market okay so like if you just imagine sort of expanding this regression band out um something like that we could you know we could certainly envision something like that playing out okay so i think this is worthwhile to consider and the reason why we're talking about it is because there's a lot of i think there's a lot of evidence that supports it right a lot not only not only from like a technical perspective we can see that bitcoin is put in a lower low which we warned about many times um but once you put in a lower low at least historically it is not the cycle bottom okay so for instance like in 2014 the first lower low was not the cycle bottom it was the second one in 2018 the first lower low was not the cycle bottom it was the second one so i don't i don't really assume that 25k is a cycle bottom right could we have a pump a relief rally back to 35k or 40k i'm not sure we could uh it doesn't mean that 25k is the bottom and it you know just because bitcoin went to 6k in july or you know july of 2018 and it rallied back up to 8k it still did not mean 6k was the bottom we still eventually dumped 50 from 6k down to 3 000 now remember one of the things we talked about is the percent difference from the market cycle bottom to the having and how after cycle in cycle one it was like 350 percent cycle two was 250 cycle one was 150 percent i don't know exactly where the cycle bottom is going to be over here if it's say let's take best case scenario is 25k you know to be to be at 40k by the next halving you're talking about just about a 60 move or so if if we end up botting it bottoming out at say like 18k then it would be about 130 percent by that by the next bitcoin having so it is something to consider that bitcoin's fair value by 2024 could in fact be um where the price of bitcoin is after having because every single prior having has occurred at the price where bitcoin hit the fair value it happened in 2012 it happened in 2016 and it also happened in 2020. so if we were to speculate that it'll happen in 2024 it would mean that you're looking at about around a 40 000 bitcoin by 2024 which is also what we said back in 2020 when the price was 8k and we said look by the next halving we should be closer to 40 to 50k for the fair value something like this okay so what that means what does that mean for you well look we're already about halfway through 2022 right 2022 is clearly a bear market year if i mean if if you still haven't accepted it i don't really know what else to say about it i mean it's it looks like a bear market to me and if it walks like one and it squawks like one you might as well call it what it is um 2023 will likely just be an accumulation year right it'll likely be an accumulation year uh gearing up for the next having and and one thing to consider too is that it actually would work really well with the macro environment i think if you think about it you know bitcoin right now is struggling but a lot of risk on assets are struggling why are they struggling well namely inflation right i mean the fed's raising interest rates but if you go look at inflation inflation is just kind of out of control right it's been out of control um coming in at eight point three percent year over year and so the fed has to be hawkish and and they're likely going to be raising interest rates by 50 basis points in june and july and maybe 25 basis points in in later months this year but perhaps they'll pivot in 2023 so let's imagine that bitcoin is is is going to be stuck in traffic on struggle street as long as the fed remains hawkish let's assume they're going to remain hawkish at least for the remainder of this year or for at least most of it you might see the bitcoin price bottom out at some point and um and then start to really enter that accumulation phase as the fed pivots and then you go into 2024 with all the um you know with the excitement of the bitcoin having perhaps the fed has completely pivoted and now we're back into quantitative easing and and perhaps we're back on into into risk on territory right i mean this is certainly a possibility and that could lead us into the next mania phase for bitcoin that ultimately takes us to the six figure mark and you know i know originally we talked about seeing that uh that six figure mark in 2023 but i i don't really see that as a likely possibility at the current time with with how hawkish the fed is i think that is something we have to consider is the macro outlook and and um i do think that you know if you think about where we are now and the bear market that we're currently going through the fact that bitcoin's price does tend to be around the fair value at the having to note the fair value at the next halving for bitcoin will be around 40k which is only 10 000 higher than where we currently are it would make the most sense to just sort of finish out this bear market over the next several months as we get into the end of the year i'll say for the next like six months or so finish out the bear market go into an accumulation phase where we don't necessarily see a major rally uh back up to the all-time highs and we could i mean we had a 2019 rally so we certainly could we could see something like that where um you know it comes down and then it comes back up or you get sort of like a fake rally and then back down and then left later on um but i would i would assume that we'll have some type of an accumulation phase over here before entering into the next bull market that'll will really kick off after the next halving but remember the having will likely not be the cycle bottom the cycle bottom will likely occur before the next having the cycle bottom could be within the next several months okay like it could be in october it could be in in september could be november could be december i mean maybe it could even be early 2023 but it's likely going to be coming up sometime you know in the foreseeable future and and you probably would do yourself some favors so just simply stick around and um to just sort of live through that and and figure out you know what type of position you want to have in bitcoin before you get into the next having in in 2024 so i think it makes sense to you know to to look at this factor in all the macro stuff going on and the reason i say this is because a lot of people are still fumbling into all coins and whatnot because they're constantly looking at these short-term pumps but you know as i've said before the dominance of bitcoin is likely heading much lower or sorry higher right the dominance of bitcoin is is likely heading much higher and if it's heading much higher which is what we've been saying for for months now then it's likely indicative of a bear market with some bear market rallies right i mean you bitcoin at a bear market rally over here when the bitcoin dominance continue to go up so i think the dominance will likely keep going up this is indicative of a healing market it'll it'll probably level off at some point and then it might go up again whenever bitcoin goes on a rally and then you might have another all season later on so there's a lot of evidence to suggest that bitcoin is just sort of choppy right now um you know i i sort of look at this market and think that in the short term 25k could easily be a local bottom for months to come right i mean like it could be it has been in the past like where you hit a local bottom then you get some type of a bounce hit a local bottom and you get some type of bounce in 2014 and in 2018 so it could be a local bottom for months to come doesn't mean it's the market cycle bottom you could still see some type of final capitulation later on and then you sort of build out that accumulation phase going into the next bitcoin having where it corresponds to the fair value at approximately 40 000 going into another mania phase as you get into you know the phase after the next bitcoin having so i just wanted to follow up on these videos we first introduced this idea back in 2019 um it hit the fair value by the 2020 having as we showed and therefore the next one would be to say hit the fourth having fair value at around 40k over here i said 40 to 50k 50k might be a little bit optimistic but if we get it we'll take it but i would say we should probably be around 40 thousand dollars by the next bitcoin having and i'll probably show this video again um you know in a year or so to see kind of where we are my guess is that we'll bottom out somewhere uh probably somewhere sub 20k or maybe you're i mean best case scenario it's it's around 20k or something i guess best case scenario is 25k right uh but assuming we get another lower low best-case scenario would be 20k but we could ultimately see a capitulation below and then if we get that rally back up to 40k by the next having it could represent like a 100 rally before you get to the fair value at the next bitcoin having and then and then you you could still see that move to six figures uh between one to two hundred thousand dollars in the next bull run so if we bottom out at 20k and bitcoin goes up you know uh 5x it's 100k if it goes up 10x it's it's 200k could it could bitcoin go up 10x from 20k to 200k well it could i mean this most recent bull market it went up about 20 something x right so certainly it could go up you know 5x to 10x if it you know if it bottoms at 20k or something and go we go up to 100 to 200 000 in the next bull run just something to consider i hope this video has been useful i hope you better understand where the fair value fit to quote-unquote non-bubble data comes from again it just comes from the red data points here that are not meant to include these bubble phases and to just identify what the fair value is fit to non-bubble data which is not to be confused with a fair value regression band fit to all data which is is better at showing undervaluation and overvaluation and and whatnot so with that in mind if i pull up the fair value by the way it looks something like that which would also sort of make sense right it goes through periods of undervaluation and over right undervaluation and over evaluation under evaluation over under over under over right and just keeps on going on like that so there's something beautiful i think when you when you sort of just take a step back and look at it uh but really you have time right i mean bitcoin could easily pump here and there have some have some rallies but realistically you still probably have uh you know i would say at least at least 12 months to to really figure out you know the conviction you have in bitcoin gearing up for the next bitcoin having the reason i don't say you know two years is again because normally at the having bitcoin is already potentially off its bottom by 100 like it could already be up 2x by the having so i'd say you have about a year to really [Music] figure out where you want your stock to be and i mean of course you can continue accumulating after that but i'm just talking about the the best value for getting the most bang for your buck in the next bull market is is likely uh those who stick around for the next year it's probably going to get somewhat quiet in the cryptoverse i can see a lot of statistics sort of falling off on my end on social metrics and whatnot so likely we'll get somewhat quiet but hopefully we can look at this video look back at this video in about a year and and and be a bit more excited as we as we head into uh the next bitcoin having also you should know there's still plenty of money to make even during bear markets and accumulation phases um you know one thing you can always do with all coins is it's just recognize you're going to bleed against bitcoin most likely for a while every time i say that i get in trouble with someone because they always point out some altcoin that's recently pumped against bitcoin but if you look at their macro trends most of them are trending down so the things you can do right now are figure out the best strategies to optimize your portfolio for the next bull market and and sort of just prepare for that over the next year or so and and gear up for the next bitcoin having as we hopefully head on into another risk on market not only for bitcoin but also for traditional markets thank you guys for tuning in make sure you subscribe if you're not subscribed give the video a thumbs up also check out the sale on into the cryptoverse premium at into the cryptoverse.com you will get access to weekly reports and videos telegram alerts channel the telegram chat room the risk dashboard the website we have on chain charts derivatives social statistics et cetera make sure you check it out into the cryptoverse.com lock in the low rate um because we do have a sale going on we'll wrap it up here thank you guys for tuning in i'll see you next time bye

Channel: Benjamin Cowen

Views: 302,771

Keywords: Cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, BTC, XBT, Crypto, Finance, Money, Investing, Blockchain, Wealth, Invest, Bull Market, Bear Market, Bubble, Speculative Bubble, Accumulation, Correction, Crash, Bulls, Bears, Mania, Fear, Greed, FUD, FOMO, Ethereum, ETH, Ether, Altcoins, Alts, Market, Markets

Id: Qxbpmp3HF4E

Length: 28min 46sec (1726 seconds)

Published: Sun Jun 12 2022