Bengaluru opposition meeting-- Congress has little to gain and lots to lose

foreign [Music] related documents carefully Swagger have camp they think their Unity efforts have put the BJP on the defensive because the last time the bgp needed a lies for show of strength these allies were always like the overstaying unwanted guests in the NDA Camp welcome to leave whenever they waste as long as they stayed they had to behave themselves expecting no special treatment 18th of July Tuesday is therefore special for them the bgps invited them to a five-star hotel in the national capital on the day of the opposition Jamboree in Bangalore opposition leaders would have us believe that their intent to come together has the BJP worried and that it forced the ruling party to refurbish the NDA with new partners the BJP does look a bit jittery it's suddenly showing urgency about rebuilding the NDA but it's probably to do with the DNA of Modi Shah's BJP not leaving anything to chance in the 2024 election look at some data points by my colleague to show the nature of the challenge the opposition will face into 124. in the 2019 election the BJP won 224 Lok Sabha seats with over 50 vote share that is just 48 seats short of a majority in the Lok Sabha in 2014 the number of seats the BJP had won with over 50 votes were 136. the BJP obviously built on it and added 88 more such seats into 519 so it's 224 now I'm giving these figures in the context of the Bengaluru meetings of opposition parties just think of 224 Lok Sabha seats with all no amount of operational Unity would work if a party gets more than half of the votes let me share with you another figure the bjp1 105 105 Lok Sabha seats with a margin of over 3 lakh votes in 2019. up from 42 into 2014 164 BJP candidates one with over 2 lakh votes in 2019. these figures give a sense of the scale of the bgp Electoral domination most of the seats that the BJP won with over 50 votes are from states where there is a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress there are 26 uh such seats in Gujarat 23 last time 25 in Mad Pradesh 22 in Karnataka nine in haryana 6 in chattisgarh and five in uttarakhand again fall in Himachal I mean among other states let's think of what winning 224 seats with such vote share in 2019 means for the BJP in 2024 Congress leaders argue that you know past performance is not an indicator of future returns but what makes them think that PM modi's popularity will drop so drastically in the next nine ten months to lose seats that it won with over 50 votes votes in 2019. there has to be an anti-modi wave to defeat the BJP on those 105 seats that is one over three lakh votes 164 seats that it won with over 2 lakh votes well nothing can be ruled out in politics but given the State of Affairs today the opposition must make a leap of faith to think that the BJP would lose these seats politics is of course not static there have been many changes since the last Lok Sabha election for one the Congress is ruling Karnataka that sent 25 BJP MP in 2019. in Maharashtra the BJP and the Civil Center together 141 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 a large chunk of the Cena is in the operation camp now in Bihar the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats with the BJP of winning 17 and jdu 16 jdu is in the operation camp now the NDA has not made much Headway in Tamil Nadu the BJP may be feeling headwinds in other states too that explains the sense of urgency reflected in the bjp's decision to revitalize the NDA with new allies and go for the show of strength on the 18th of July but that is the bjpg's strength plugging the leaks when the boat is Riding High we'll talk about the NDA meeting uh and what it means in another show on Wednesday today let me focus on the opposition meeting in Bangalore that is underway the Congress invited two dozen parties to Bangalore for this meeting these can be divided into two categories those who are already Congress allies and those who are not the first category includes 16 parties and I can name them DMK mdmk kdmk vck jdu rjd CPI cpim cpiml RSP forward block ncpenna GMM iuml and Kerala Congress Joseph the second category includes seven parties the normal Congress up SP rld Kerala Congress money National Conference and PDP essentially these seven parties who are not Congress allies today are supposed to cement opposition Unity because the other 16 are already Congress allies look at the last two first the two Jammu and Kashmir based parties a National Conference in PDP one doesn't know if the Congress has factored in the likelihood of the Supreme Court delivering a verdict on the center's decision on article 370 the Apex court has decided to resume its hearing from the first week of August given that one of the five judges on the Supreme Court bench Justice Sanjay Christian call he's set to retire on the 25th of December and given that he said to retire the Supreme Court's ruling is likely to come back to come before that what will be the verdict article 370 will be back to the political center stage in the run-up to the Lok Sabha election is when the political discourse is being dominated Again by 370 or what the center did did to the special status of cosmet the answer is anybody's guess look at another invited from the second category behind the congress's invitation to Kerala Congress money which has upset Kerala Congress Joseph is its objective to bring the two splintered factions together to safeguard its Christian vote Bank it may be worthwhile given the BJP attempts to woo Kerala Christians but it won't make much difference nationally that leaves us with four other parties in the non-congrats Ally category TMC app SP the last two ESPN rld had formed a Grand Alliance within 2019 and together ended up with 15 seats the speed share was just five seats now think of a possible Congress Alliance and even throw in bhim Army this would be no match to a formation comprising biography in 2019 besides let's not forget that the BJP won 40 Lok Sabha seats in up by over 50 votes in 2019. so even if the SP drops its reservation against the Congress and there is another big Alliance comprising these two sprld and chances party will that be formidable enough to take away any significant number of Lok Sabha seats from the BJP in up my guess is as good as yours so why is Sonia Gandhi is so keen on dining with akhilesh yadav in Bangalore well it's less about maximizing the gains and more about minimizing the loss may also Play Spoiled spot for her even in her pocket brother ly but the SP needs the Congress when the Muslim Muslims are seen to be rallying around the Congress you saw that what happened in Karnataka when Muslims abandoned the JDS to vote for the Congress Muslims again voted for the Congress in against the TMC in Sagar Digi assembly by Poland West Bengal again in the panchayat pulse in Bengal Muslims voted for the Congress in murshidabad and malda on the other hand we saw how the SP lost in its azamgar and rampur bastians that's why you see Mamta Banerjee and akhilesh yadav who found the Congress a burden till the other day coming to Bangalore to discuss opposition Unity and yadav have been have even framed their terms of Engagement that they will support the Congress where it's strong and the latter should reciprocate in clean English it means that the Congress should contest the two Lok Sabha seats in Bengal which it won in 2019 or probably a couple of more and leave the rest for the three normal Congress as for reciprocity 12 Mega Congress MLA joining the TMC ahead of Elections have made this party a force in the northeastern state post-elections the Congress and the TMC have five mlas each going by Mamta banerjee's definition or terms of Engagement the Congress that won one of the two Lok sabhasis in meghalaya should be ready to give up claims for the second seat in tmc's favor in case of up this Arrangement would mean a speech support to the Congress in library Amity and a few other seats and for these sacrifices the Congress should help Mamta and akhilesh regain their grip on the Muslim vote Bank at who's got cost the Congress is cost obviously as for the Ahmadi party arvind kejriwal made the apps participation in opposition Unity meet in Bengaluru conditional to the Congress opposing the bill that would replace the centers contoursal ordinance on control of services in Delhi the fact is that the NDA along with friendly parties like the ysrcp and the bjd can get the bill through even the rajya Sabha because who is in iitn wouldn't have missed the arithmetic in the Upper House as it is the current strength of rasa by 238 so to get the bill passed the government needs 120. the NDA has 112 including the five nominated members the UPA has 106. but then the ND also has some friendly party as I mentioned in the operation camp aign to name just a couple both these parties have nine members each so the government won't have any problem in getting the bill through that is if it decides to bring the bill in the coming session of Parliament there is a reason why I am saying if but I won't get into this subject now let's get back to our opposition Unity story that theme I was talking about how kejriwal would also know well that the Congress which is aligned with regional parties in States could not afford not to oppose the bill in Parliament yet Casey was demanded from the Congress to make its commitment public as if to caucus snook at Congress leaders in Punjab in Delhi who have been vocal against alleged Corruption of the up government and targeting of Congress leaders in Punjab by the vigilance Bureau that aside think of what the app Congress Unity under the larger opposition umbrella would entail there are 30 Lokes of assists in Punjab the Congress holds seven of them and the app one all seven seats of Delhi are with the BJP so which of the two should vacate which state and which seat for the other up insiders say that they want the Congress to give up most of its Punjab seats and split the least seats anyway look at the larger picture again what does the Congress gain from this opposition Unity Sharad leave existing allies aside and also assume that no other Regional players such as the bjd from odisha BRS from Telangana ysrcp from Andhra Pradesh and janta the secular from Karnataka let's assume that they will not join the opposition bandwagon in that scenario the opposition Unity effort gets reduced to primarily three players because others already with the Congress the TMC the app and SP all these three have become what they have become today at the cost of the Congress and they look to grow at the cost of the Congress or whatever is left of its vote Bank how many Lok Sabha seats would these three players spares for the Congress if they were to come together my guess 25 30 35 at the most money is not even talking about the winning seeds and how the Congress reciprocate in the immediate context these parties would want an alliance with the Congress to prevent Muslims from abandoning them this Alliance will also make these Regional parties big stakeholders in the Lok Sabha Lok Sabha polls because a section of Voters usually go for National parties in the Lok Sabha elections it will help Banta biology it will help I will create if they are seen as part of a an ntbjp front at the center so why is the Congress looking so desperate to bring them together and even Infuse fresh life into aspiring National National challenges foreign the Congress did not need them not in the people scenario at least and if there is no wave as such which seems to be the case today the best hope of the opposition would be to deny the bjpm majority on its own it may be a scenario that all girl you would love but it won't necessarily translate into the congress's Revival in fact it may end up revitalizing these Regional players the bane of the Congress calls for oppositional Unity by by nitish Kumar are understandable at the end of their political career by choice or compulsion they want their last hurray in 2024. others in Bangalore who have a different plan a prominent opposition leader told me last week that they would want the Congress to contest a maximum of 300 seats if not 250. guess where most of these seats would fall the states where Regional parties have little prisons and where the BJP won the maximum number of seats with over 50 votes if Karnataka was in a signal of a possible Resurgence of the Congress Regional parties have more to worry more than the BJP that almost a exclusively occupies one end of the ideological Spectrum deals rather have a Level Playing Field at the other end through a position Unity that's all from me in this episode of political correct thanks for watching foreign [Music] [Applause] [Music]

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Length: 16min 57sec (1017 seconds)

Published: Mon Jul 17 2023