Bawumia's Economic Lecture PT.1 - Newsfile on Joy News (10-9-16)

[Music] you're welcome back this is news finally so most authoritative news analysis show and here on news file we put Ghana Fest this show is brought to you by the kind of sponsorship of Bank of Africa strongest a group includes as a partner MT and welcome to the new world star surance creating smiles since 1985 having mosquito coil pleasant on humans tough nightmare only insects a cup compost fertilizer truly natural fertilizer that you need white temple agency luxury you can afford any sort of tiles that you're looking for and the best that's where you get them in his fly for a pest free life and royal lighting walk in the light now today I'm unable to do my taken in place of that I have a letter from the Speaker of Parliament Edward do Idaho and he has a ruling to make on the show this morning so let's read him he says dear editor news file program multi media limited Accra rejoined up and the title is remarks by mister I equal to and mrs. Samuel in teamed aqua on multimedia news file program and reported in The Chronicle in respect of the decision of mrs. speaker on the fest of September 2016 by the Speaker of Parliament right honourable Edward o jeho on the motion requesting the establishment of a special committee to investigate the donations of the donation of a Ford Expedition vehicle to his Excellency the president by a bokken AB a contractor thus just the headline now he says the attention of the office of the Speaker of Parliament has been drawn to remarks and comments made by mr. Eicke we go to format any general and Minister of Justice and mr. Samuel in teemed aqua form a clerk to Parliament on the decision by the Speaker of Parliament right honourable Doe Edward or jeho in respect of the motion filed by the Minority Leader on behalf of the minority caucus in Parliament for questioned establishment of a special committee to investigate the donation of a ford expedition vehicle to his Excellency the president by Ibuki knob a contractor the said remarks were made during Saturday fete September 2016 edition of the multimedia news file program part of which was reported in the Monday fits September 2016 edition of The Chronicle volume 24 number one five three according to The Chronicle report mr. go-to claimed coat the speaker overruled on the test case of miss okay the speaker over relied the speaker over relied on the test case of messes Okuda to a block wa and dr. Roman Abramovich's Jacob Oh danke Oh ability and that the minority did not get justice did not get justice the decision delivered by the speaker from the decision delivered by the speaker in arriving at this conclusion mr. ie co2 relied on the premise which he expressed boldly during the news file program that coats the issue about the Ford Expedition gift to president Mahama was contained in the Auditor General's reports unquote mr. Cotto argued further that coat there was no pronouncement on article 187 Clause 6 of the same 1992 Constitution with cloth parliaments with powers to investigate issues arising out of the Auditor General's report the said article reads Parliament shall debate the report of the Auditor General and a point where necessary in the public interest a committee to deal with any matters arising from it unquote mr. I go to the Chronicle report continued stated that he coat was surprised that speaker jeho decided to overlook this provision and instead concentrated on the work being by shraddh unquote ordinarily in consonance with our domestic democratic values and culture the office of the Speaker of Parliament would not have responded to opinions expressed by individuals or groups during media discussions whether adverse or favorable we are constrained however in this instance to intervene to set the record straight and forestall feda misleading of the public first of all giving the stature in society and pedigree of mystical to us form at any general and Minister for justice it is critical we correct factual inaccuracies and clear untruths he peddled about Parliament and the speaker to the unsuspecting public particularly when his statements were being transmitted through a worldwide media outlets such as the multimedia news file program and reinforced by the report in The Chronicle the office of the speaker hereby states as expressly and unequivocally that there has been no mentioning of the issue of a fault expedition vehicle in any of the Auditor General's report submitted to the house since the inception of the fourth Republican parliament in January 1993 he continues the former attorney general failed to exercise the diligence required of a professional lawyer by fast cross checking his facts with the appropriate institutions through simple verification from the clerk's office or the table office or the secretariat of the Public Accounts Committee in Parliament or by just contacting the office of the Auditor General before going on air to spew such untruths the office of the speaker is particularly surprised that the former attorney general also ignored the relatively easy public access to virtually all the reports of the Auditor General published so far which are available for downloads to any interest free of charge on the official website of the Ghana audit service but Rada came on the news file program to boldly assess that cuts the issue about the Ford Expedition gift to the president Mahama was contained in the Auditor General's report and codes assuming without admitting that it was indeed the case that the issue of the Ford Expedition vehicle was before Parliament by the rules of the house the matter would have been referred to the Public Accounts Committee for consideration and report what would then have been the rationale for minority parties request that Parliament be recalled out of recess to establish another committee to investigate the same matter being scrutinized by the Public Accounts Committee which under our parliamentary rules is chaired by a member of the minority party in Parliament why would they not wait for the report of the Public Accounts Committee to come to the plenary for debate our chief concern is that his statement on the matter in respect of the actions of the speaker and Parliament are likely to confuse and even mislead many Ghanians who might be looking up to him for guidance on matters of law and fact mr. I equal to must be called upon by the host of the multimedia news file program to retract his statement relating to the speaker's decision on the issue of the Ford Expedition vehicle since they were based on erroneous and inaccurate facts we are also equally concerned that the host of the multimedia news file program provided mr. co2 with a worldwide worldwide platform and allowed him a free rein to mislead the listening public without demanding that he proved his sauce by showing them the copy of the auditor-general reports he was purportedly relying on it is a humble view that a multimedia group has a duty and an ethical responsibility that persons who appear on their platform are not permitted to articulate issues without proving sources particularly when the person's against whom they raise adverse matters are not present immediately to respond to them secondly our information from a news report in the Monday 5th september 2016 edition of the Ghanaian Times newspaper number 17 eight four seven which was called from the website my joy online comm is that mrs. Emmeline team dum de quoi a former clerk to Parliament also contributed on the multimedia news file program as an expect on parliamentary procedures and claimed that code the speaker may have erred in his summary dismissal of the motion encodes he argued that code Parliament is not only the highest institution responsible for making laws but the highest forum to debate matters and the least the speaker could do was to allow a debate on the matter before ruling and codes in July 2005 the den minority caucus filed a motion requesting Parliament to establish a special committee to investigate his Excellency the President on what was tamed the hotel Co for saga Suika a benissa bajina such a huge promptly declined to admit the motion and dismissed it some relief accordingly it was Neda referred to the Business Committee nor programme for debate in the house at a time which was some ten years after his retirement mr. s and aqua had been appointed and was serving as consultant and advisor on procedural matters to Parliament and to the right honourable speaker Ebenezer bajina such use this was during the fifth Parliament of the Fourth Republic which spanned from January 2005 to January 2009 getting to conclude right interestingly mr. SN backwe was unable to advise vicarage Hughes not to dismiss the motion summary and to allow debate on the hotel coup for saga before ruling on the matter surprisingly also missed Eisenbach could not at the time not find a similar worldwide white multimedia platform to go and offer his coat expect opinion and coat on the ruling of the speaker on the hotel Co for saga now surprisingly he has now found his voice after so many years we do not begrudge mr. de quoi for expressing his personal opinion on what occurred in Parliament relating to the right honourable speaker added or jiho's decision on the matter of the ford expedition vehicle obviously unlike the professional lawyers on the panel it would appear that the boundaries and constraints on decision making imposed on the gun apart on the Ghana Parliament by the 1982 Constitution to which is subject to which it is subject we're lost on mr. SN de quoi he was unable to appreciate fully the binding effect of the ruling that Hodge had exclusive jurisdiction on matters relating to conflict of interest and the code of conduct for public offices delivered by the Supreme Court in the case of Samuel a coup d'etat black wire and dr. Roman Abramovich's Jacob a table MT and the Attorney General the very last paragraph says in order to distinguish partisans in expert clothing from the real it is important that host of media programs as question asked persons professing to be expect whether there had been any precedent in respect of matters under discussion and if any what was their aspect opinion at the time this is signed by George Obata special assistant to the speaker Parliament House Accra dated 8 September 2016 thank you I read your rejoinder in full but one thing I must tell you is that you did not have to rely on the Chronicle and what was published elsewhere to send me a rejoinder you ought to have listened to what half on this platform they claims you make of the S&P aqua for example start with I equal to that he made the claims of the Auditor General's report that the Ford Expedition issue was in the Auditor General's report and that the hosts at and watch him to continue is is very wrong it is a lie because I put it to I equal to on this show that it was not in the Auditor General's report please get a copy of last week's program and watched that content for yourself SN backwe you say he was not asked of President he was referred to as many as three or four presidents on the issue and he was asked why he didn't for example advise D F a man on a similar situation he said he was out of the country when he retained the F announce sought his view and he told the F a man his opinion that the FN and could have allowed the debate the effing on had him but didn't take what he had to share because was not obliged so thank you very much your rejoinder fully issued but please rely on the content of this show and not what's published by others and limit yourself to that it doesn't help thank you very much now let's get to doing some economics and some election issues and ECG and you should get ready to enjoy the show my guest on the show this morning dr. Eric or say a CB is senior economists he lectures at the Department of Economics and he's the acting head of the department of distance education at the University of Ghana good morning and welcome doc also is able Duncan a cold dank ansari echo Duncan a cold dank n' is chairman political affairs committee convention People's Party the CPP is a Duncan good morning and welcome to the show good morning and thank you also on the show and you can see us smiling because when he came in I was asking what I was in the wrong seats Kojo upon in chroma is MPP parliamentary candidate for the of 1c RAB constituency good morning and welcome I'm good sir Isaac Adamo its MDC parliamentary candidate for vulgar sanction good morning and welcome model how are you great great to have all of you so and your views your comments your questions are welcome on the show 1 4 2 2 is a text line you can also send them to one seven six zero and we'll share them with the rest of the world and when I see that I give that credit to cut your phone : rest of the world now this show is live from join 89.7 FM on the direct channel also on the multi TV and it's available subsequently in London and elsewhere in Europe on your sky television and that's your sky channel 2 3 5 we are also on DSTV and you can watch us on your D s TV channel 4 2 1 we are on over a dozen affiliate stations across the country and we are screaming streaming on the Internet as well thanks for joining us again this morning now I think I'll I would like to start with Cujo on the issue of dr. Bonilla and his lecture on whether or not the country was the had built a foundation and whether I was whatever foundation it was when I was the foundation of straw or of concrete and he came to the conclusion that this was a foundation of straw I think what I rather do now is listening to bits of what he did and who come to could you to justify because those claims are being questioned including by Imani gana the countries that GDP ratio had declined from 189 percent in 2000 to 32 percent of GDP by 2008 indeed from independence in 1957 to 2008 Ghana's total debt was 9.5 billion galaxies however in the last seven years alone under this MVC government Ghana's total debt has ballooned from 9.5 billion Ghana Cedis 200 billion Ghana Cedis fifty and a hundred and five billion Ghana Cedis by May 2016 sixty-six percent of Ghana's debt from Independence sixty-six percent of Ghana's debt has been accumulated under the presidency of John Dramani Mahama in just the last three and a half years during the period of MPP governance capital expenditure that is expenditure on infrastructure far exceeded interest payments this is because low interest payments allow more room for capital expenditure infrastructure expenditure as a percentage of GDP declined sharply after 2008 as interest payments have been increasing from 2014 to date interest payments have now incredibly exceeded infrastructure expenditure how can an economy grow when interest payments are higher than capital expenditure under the NDC government over the last eight years the minimum wage has declined from two point one two dollars to two point O two dollars that is a decline in the minimum wage by four point six percent between 2012 and 2016 which is the tenure of President Mohammed the minimum wage in dollar terms has declined by 23% another excuse that has been proffered by President Mohammed for the miserable performance of the economy under his watch is the 28 Supreme Court petition you and I were not there was the mama clays that a pre-election petition today is claiming that the election petition slow down the economy the problem with this desperate argument however it is that it is contradicted by the data that's why I like data that contrary to the claims by the president except for the fiscal deficit on virtually every single indicator such as GDP growth inflation exchange rate exports European interest rate debt to GDP ratio and so every single indicator the performance of the economy in 2013 was better than 2014 and 2015 the president's argument therefore does not hold water and the election petition cannot be blamed the mismanagement of the economy and that is John Muhammad government has resulted in an increase in taxes on virtually everything taxable this has increased the burden on the private sector and is a disincentive for production high taxes also increase the cost of living for ghanians many of the taxes that have been imposed and nuisance taxes there are nuisance structures whose yields is quite low but whose very non business and individuals is quite high so those were yes some a couple of highlights of the statements that dr. Bonilla gave could you what's what was a purpose and what was he thinking to achieve with this three and abroad who are listening and watching this morning sure I would like to start by putting what happened a couple of days ago in context dr. Bellamy is an economist he is a former deputy governor of the central bank he also happens to be the vice presidential candidate of the MPP as we head into the 2016 elections if you check the records he's got over 25 different publications on various economies and obvious particular benchmarks and from time to time even here in Ghana he does analysis of various things but two or three things happen anytime he does these analysis first you use a particular model or particular set of formula to arrive at some indicators and then you will make some analysis out of what the numbers are telling you because in economics that's all you do whether you use the qingcheng model or the classical model or the new classical model you come to a certain number whatever number you come to is not just for its own sake but it's supposed to inform a certain analysis that when I look at these numbers I'm arriving at this is the picture I see and therefore this is the prescribed solution so broadly that's what he's done now in the times when he's done some of these things about Ghana something is happen for example one of the very early ones that he did about the fact that we need to watch expenditure and it was looking at deficit numbers Norman our deficit numbers was looking at a deficit to GDP ratio so I was talking about the fact that it would look at that gaps between revenue and expenditure and the rate at which we are committing to some specific expenditure items some consensus when friends and them or EMR kingdom if we don't take it we're gonna get to a time when government will run out of money to run this economy so he used some models came to some numbers but the important thing is that my prescription mean was that if you don't watch this this is gonna be the outcome he was lambasted he was called all sort of means that he was dishonest he was this ingenious he was being elliptic I was just doing propaganda in the end President Mihama admitted got the meter I'm quoting the president the meat was gone and was now down to the bone that's what Barney was talking about dr. Bonilla talked about the fact that the city was depreciating at an alarming rate because of a number of things I have a copy of that the presentation that I did on the CD right here and he talked about the fact that some of the solutions that will be prescribed by the central bank and the time if you look at the numbers they were using but if you want to travel you need to get about $1,000 you look at those specific numbers he was of the view that those prescriptions were not sustainable and some of them needed to be reversed again he was lambasted in the end the central bank had to reverse some of these prescriptions I give another example he talked about our deficits again and what it meant again in real numbers this is pushed 2012 where we were recording an opinion on the source of data you are looking at you miss 11.5 or 12.2 but important thing that that's a double-digit deficit he talked about that and said that two things were gonna happen if we didn't find a very quick way of wound on austerity program to pin it down we were most likely going to have to go what we loved somewhere again people took issue with why are you saying twelve point two is eleven point five you know all sort of analysis at the time but the big thing he was saying that you are suffering a double-digit deficit indeed who was three years in a row and if you don't look at it this is going to be the outcome again it was lambasted in the end you had to go to the IMF for bailout he won't again or the IMF bailout that if you take the I am a freelance I have a copy here for you the easier for the iodine and you look at the structure of the revenue measures what they call the homegrown ponies to the structure of the ribbon images and the structure of the expenditure measures about two or three things were going to happen one it's going to impose severe hardship people if you take measures and with your pension if I beat just a little of some of these measures for example we talk about fat on Phoebe's financial services I'm reading on page 50 paragraph 27 which is what he says he you be scrappy well yes yes so you'll notice that the solutions are crisper and are tied to an analysis of the problem so for example he says if you say that you're gonna impose a special opportunity X of 17.5% X part of the rationalization of that and change the petroleum pricing structure to heeled 1.4 million to repeat part of the money taken from the IMF this has a trickle-down effect as a rippling effect because we are talking about petroleum which affects transportation which affects inflation and everything it's a bad idea it's gonna bring hardship he listed a number of them we may not have time for me to go through them in the end again he was lambasted today the evidence of them on the ground is that there's a lot of hardship the tea you see is just talking about the fact that this deal actually should be scrapped better than TV saying that this deal is bad secondly the IMF itself is saying that some of the numbers are represented with them need to be reconciled I mean our government is presenting you would notice that in the supplementary budget that's an interesting matter of a second 1.7 billion that needs to be talked about so dr. Pommier makes the argument that these things will impose hardship and in the end you may not be able to follow through on it today the evidence is out there here's the point sometimes we pick issue with point two point three zero point five or he should have used this model but the big thing is talking about is the big picture what you are seeing and therefore what a prescription is so what we saw to do two days ago was to take a set of figures a set of yeah actually benchmarks like the size of the economy like per capita GDP like a minimum wage in dollar terms which shows you how how a government is empowering its people or you know equipping its people to compete on the global stage in terms of the minimum wage that has at least been P by something as simple as wage inequality reduction so he took some of these you know key benchmark carrots and he compared 2001 to 2008 and 2009 to 2016 and he comes to the conclusion that looking at the numbers pure data tells you that the average ganene is worse off today than he was in the 80s of the NPP during which period the MPP got about 20 billion Ghana Cedis of resources and the NDC has received about 248 billion can a citizen resources they've got 12 times the resources that the MPP got you would imagine that at least they should do 12 times better than the MPP did have they maintained the status quo or have we with regrets or have they added to it and this analysis at the end of the day is that when you look at these numbers it's clear to anybody that we are worse off today the average Ghanian is worse off today than he was in the MPP era and he proceeds to make a further argument that government struggles to reconcile the numbers with the reality on the ground and so what government keeps saying over and over again is that we are building the foundation we are building the foundation and he gives several references from the MDC manifesto prior to the 2012 election to the 2011 period where President Mohammad consistently talked about building a foundation and he has a question so how many foundations would you build how long would it take you to build this foundation because the foundation that was left with the or was was was left for the NBC from the onset looked like a good foundation we are growth at interesting levels we had interesting levels for our reserves we had good numbers for the average Canyon so he comes the conclusion that if we continue on this trajectory we are going to be in trouble if we keep this resource basket in the hands of the NDC administration and he concludes by saying that two things need to happen one you need to cure this problem by putting this economy back in the hands of a political tradition that has a paradigm which better manages the economy and he's proven it with the figures that's one and two when you do that we have a number of policy prescriptions which we will use to cure this problem and he listed about 17 of them which will be used to cure this problem so in summary this is what dr. balmy I did which is not very different from many other things that he has done in times past our hope is that this time round will not go back into the same vilification name-calling dismissing what saying but we will look at at least if for nothing at all the solutions is prescribing and ask ourselves do these solutions work for Ghana you may be in government today pick these solutions and try them if they work all of us benefit as a country that's our sincere hope as we go into this conversation on I'm dr. Daniel right I intend to have each one of you do ten minutes without any intruder interaction and you've done nine minutes I'd like you to take the last one minute to do part of your summary of what he presented on the aspect where he spoke about the worrying trend of debt servicing yes these are the infrastructure development how much has come in and how much we have we've been able to spend on infrastructure try and do that in under one minute if I can you notice that in 2008 our budget I mean our our our stock of debt was about nine point five billion Ghana Cedis that was about 32% debt to GDP ratio you recall that when the MPP to government in 2000 debt to GDP ratio is about 182 percent through initiatives like hypocrite cetera were able to reduce that to about 32 percent what that dad what that did for us is that it created fiscal space the government could now invest in things that create further growth and things that take care of the poor people at a bottom even though we are a party that is right or center us up now when you check out that stock it's about 105 billion Ghana Cedis and 2015 about 105 billion Ghana Cedis today our calculation is that's about 71 percent debt to GDP ratio government says it's 63 you let's grant them the s63 we disagree we say 71 randomly at 63 they've moved us back from 52 to 63 and what they've done is that they have cringed fiscal space that you use for investment in some of the initiatives that really create growth some of the initiatives that you know alleviate poverty really I mean for example take things like who forced cocoa spring fertilizer etc and don't sit in the studios and analyze let's go to the village it's from where I come from go to the villages and talk to the farmers on the ground as to whether or not spring is going on the number of gangs have been maintained fertilizer has been provided so what you have done is that now the fiscal state you know is cringed and you don't have enough money to pump in all of these things let me give you just how to quick statistics in 2008 this totaled s talking about nine point five billion Ghana Cedis attracted interest of six hundred and eighteen million Ghana Cedis in 2008 today when you hit a hundred billion plus you are paying about nine point six billion as interest debt servicing actually nine point six billion now that is more than the total debt stuff that you inherited and here's what is doing if you take the top six ministries in this country roots and highways Trade and Industry food and our Greek water resources wax and housing youth and sports transport they are getting a total budget reallocation of about 2.1 billion if you are spending in 2016 we're going to spend ten billion on debt servicing what you are doing is that you are limiting the space that you could have used all the budgets that you could have given to these ministries to really invest in parts of the economy that we believe spare on the growth and I'll give you one final thing before before I keep me let me go to the supplementary budget presented by my good friend said tech we're in Parliament a few a few weeks ago and I hear you know my friends in the NB C talked about the fact that we should use average GDP growth rates and not that friend give you a camera can zoom in onto mrs. ed tech mess graph as presented in Parliament it's on page seven you would notice that we have I mean GDP growth has moved from four point eight in 2009 to seven point nine to fourteen point zero when oil came through and it's been going down now nine point three seven point three four point zero three point now now our friends in the end ECC or don't worry just put it together and find the average and you notice that it's a higher average than the MPP when you're looking at GDP growth one of the questions you want to ask them the economists are here this will help us is what is that trend what is the rate because if the economy is doing a three point five piano or any and it's just staying there the chrome is going but it's going at a stagnant rate okay but if it's going at higher rates then you tell her there's some momentum in the MPP I could tell that there was some momentum and the good of the economy and with mister sector past graph as representative parlance you can begin to see that the economy is growing - inducing speed that's a point that is being made and if we pay attention to the solutions I believe we will all be better thank you very much could your opponent chroma and let's hear from Isaac adore he represents the NDC and is the parliamentary candidate for the bogus central constituency that supposed to be okay right that's not where I mean it is now already the government is extruding out some responses and seeking to wholesale discredit everything almost everything that dr. Berman has been dealing with the money has done something we'll go into where they are able to give what they say is the real and truth truthful measurements of the things that he had to say and they say some of the statistics are correct some of the comments that he made represent the truth on the ground yet some of them he seemed to have you know twisted that for political purpose partisan political papers what particularly in his presentation is the NBC feeling or the government feeling it's completely wrong well thank you very much good morning to my colleague panelists and a good morning to your chairmanship us particularly my constituents Baga central constituency I think that we in the NDC are consistently now getting worried about the comedy of dr. Bonilla Bonilla is not doing any economic analysis Bonilla is actually doing a political campaign and so we don't expect Bonilla to go out there and paint a good picture of this economy otherwise he doesn't deserve to come back there and so it is quite clear that the objective or Tanya is to find a way and demonize anything good that this government has done and indeed our intent to be in subjection here but so what I was are like it's not unlike this yes wouldn't what I like you to do is this that less mess also be careful the West we use in expressions we use when you begin by saying is Canadian and before said it was very entertaining okay this economists estimate acedia plus let me make my point yes we are very serious about some of the things he has said some of the obvious distortions you don't expect us to be happy with Moki he said yes of course the first thing I want to see is that what dr. Bobby has realized is that he is on a political campaign trail he's come to realize after his Excellency the president delivered a speech in Caicos that so much focus was being paid to the volume of work that has been done by this government so much effort was been made to let people know what exactly were heading as a country and so now seeing that beginning to ship across the country he has to find a way to you know present this kind of analysis that is not factual most of his figures are self-seeking and most of his figures are pure propaganda to put the end is in bad light in order to project the NPP so that is the face but he's not a neutral independent academic scholar making a presentation so we need to know that from the first point the issues he raised a white fundamental so the most will win the comments yes demonstrably on the comments in the first place Bauman says that the dead should DGP okay reduce significantly to 32% 32% in which he not in 2008 read page 96 of the 2009 budget the budget deficit to GDP was 52% so straight away Barnea is Channing out alive the second point that tells you the bonus to another lie is the bomb yes in one breath says that that the total debt of Ghana is 36 billion dollars thirty eight thirty nine billion dollars but then gets a CD equivalent of 105 billion Ghana Cedis just multiply three by 39 you exceed 105 okay and and - him that point nine of it all you already get the figure fire in excess of the 105 by his coating and using face analysis all right away he is just dreamy sniffles and encoding figures that have no realistic let me make another point I can tell you bonus is that by the end of this year gamma will gone overboard six billion dollars more okay how do you accumulate debt you accumulate debts by first looking at you about your deficit and what is the budget deficit situation for 2016 eight point four billion Ghana Cedis translate that and you are getting two point 1 billion dollars so the addition of four billion dollars at Bermuda is getting what is it for where is a green it tells you that what Bonilla is simply doing is that any time he sees alone a facility is taking all alone is taking or they say they said that one formula simply does is to add all of that to the existing debt so for instance if the government of Ghana goes out to issue a euro bond of 1 billion dollars and intend to use five hundred million dollars to pay off an existing debt you expect that that that position should increase by only five hundred million dollars by will now add 1 billion dollars to the debt position inflating it by five hundred million dollars and that is why there is an excess over ten billion dollars in excess of official position so about what is simply doing is a tomorrow to borrow some money how much is it five billion I would want to use it to refinance existing that bomb is very interesting Obama's interest that is that we are boring five billion and that must be going to add up to the national debt that is not a way to money that that position of Ghana and that is not the way you account for that position and so it is quite clear that he is just rolling out lies let me give you several other examples Bonilla in one Brett's just has the de foundation that we are building a foundation of straw then immediately after that he exposes himself by saying that the economy is projected to grow by double digits in 2018 just two years or now which foundation is that that is going to lead to the economic rain by devotees all the economic think tanks across the country agree that Ghana is poised for 7% growth and beyond 2017 feda double-digit so he's confirming exactly the foundation that he's trying to discredit and his own speech exposes him okay what is BOM Mia saying about infrastructure in 2008 what was the total budget for infrastructure 1 billio okay the total amount of the vegetables salad our national assets hello if that was to be used in finance infrastructure that have already met the one pillow if I exceeded the one pillow Ghana telecom Westdale okay if you do the grant of another one video to it if you add hippie inflows you can add the 70 15 million dollars that was buried by the MPP you were already getting an amount of three billion dollars that could finance three times the capital expenditure of MPP in one year and these are not even funds than us threatened to get this selling our own asset and invest in our own capital where did the money go okay and so for him to be talking about capital capital and investment and knowing that in terms of capital investment the record is far far better and you can see it you see he's trying to say that we are not invest I mean they first structure that people are talking about that he's cared about how do I diminish the fire on the infrastructure that is going on but he only talks about some mystery money he contradicts himself Bob yes is that we are over inflating figures and we are spending so much on infrastructure then in the end he comes to cut a very small infrastructure amount that was spent seven put seven billion dollars right and so that's seven billion dollars compared to all that is good and then it just measures about four bridges and it gets 1 billion dollars already and yet our table is not in okay and he himself in his campaign promise when he happily said that there was a budget a capital budget of 1.6 billion that he would draw on to distribute one Miller to concentrate so that MP people can say he forgot that a 1.6 billion that he's put in the a so captain infrastructure okay and again let me state that on this platform we ought to be careful about some of the things we see you you don't know who is listening to you at the time the NPP has a promise of one constituency 1 billion 1 million dollars the promise is not 1 million dollars for NPP to share in the constituency it is for the development of the constituency let's grant you so if you are making that reference okay please make it in the factual lemon lemon grass him that all I'm saying is that that one video that he's trying to take from the 1.6 billion while we that 1 1 million dollars that I try to take out of the one point since be no capital expenditure okay he has forgotten that the massive infrastructure development that is going on across that hundred days trying to demonize and which is saying that when you engage in investment of engage in infrastructure it means nothing okay but when you go to roost that he has a few examples he found his voice who saw how excited a clamor and say you saw how excited it means he knew that he didn't have a track record in infrastructure when you go to water he was so excited to be mentioning some examples because he knows that is they change the game changer that is when you would then be building the competitiveness you'll be investing into the future and you'll be creating room for Ghana to go and so it is very clear that he is worried about the volume of the first wretched woman how do I throw dust into the eyes on a people that that does exist and that's why he's doing but we are very clear in our minds why he came to give examples of inflated figures for hospitals pow/mia mentioned that issue hospital with a four hundred copper bed assist and the bed capacity another rich hospital was 420 bed covers I have two issues I wish he had found an example of a similar hospital that was built by NPP okay in order to show that it was cheaper in MPP but not expensive he couldn't find an example one eight years equalling family's discontent and he said about the cost in the legal habit which he says these are private where individuals who got into it or private institution got into it and the amount is how many times what you're using volume change all I'm trying to say that this countdown water I'm this tall effect there are two issues I mentioned to issues that I have with the first one is that I wish he had his own example he didn't have the second issue is that Bonilla reduces the costs of a hospital to the number of days that you have so for him once it has that thousand bed capacity hospital it must necessarily be more expensive than a 400 capacity bed hospital we are looking at this cope without looking at the facilities we are looking at what is going into the hospital and that is my worry my worry is that he talks about renovation of airport and he goes to other countries to give you standard examples what is happening when she when he came to the airport's he used family Airport as an example and use that of who who is not supposed to be an international airport right now let me give you a let me come home people I know here a lot of who don't know it's okay let's give let's stay here who is not an international airport when you build an interest airport is not a runway where is Bella Mia being suka stochastic that he pretends that is just an expansion of a of around the fact that an aircraft landed in the afternoon in the thermal airport doesn't mean that if the aircraft at that time could have departed in the night it doesn't mean that a craft landed a in the night that is a difference and so the difference now is a bigger aircraft can land and depart in the night because there are navigation and other facilities that are part of the airport so why is this citing comparing mangoes with oranges in order to paint a picture Asura that is his mission that our problem allowed all of you to do it say that yes I've seen you've missed some notes you come back because some of the issues you raised maybe may appear to be a general you know overview of things so we do the fact-checking we mention these specific issues and you tell us what is wrong with them figures when he puts up now doc from where you sit and this is your job you listen to dr. Bonilla and I can see you're looking at the script itself or whatever I taste what do you think he was sincere with and what do you think he was insincere and inaccurate about for purposes of political propaganda well thank you and good morning ting of cherished listeners I think the beauty of dr. Bonilla presentations over the last three or four years is to get all of us debating and shaping the political discourse the campaign making it more issue based than other metrics and other things that do not build about development and I think for me that alone is a plus not for him I mean if you listen carefully to the presentation you could see that the presentation is full of ruts of course you can argue that somehow he's a politician so you can see some tears and twists here and there but largely you realize that it is issue-based and what he sought to do is to kind of have a comparative study and also look at trend analysis put the data as it is now in historical perspective so you comparison of facts yes with intense yep there are some examples of where you're dealing with facts that you inaudible suits right and where you thought he twisted the facts well I mean less execration that assuming that this time around we have IMF coming to do a diagnosis so I can me or we have the world bump produced a report on Ghana's macroeconomic conditions today let's say we have any of the credit agencies Moody's and S&P I mean doing assessment would they have presented anything different from the father talking about the fact that we have dead stock increase in debt to GDP as of 2015 being at 71 point some 2% we have interest rate being one of the highest the fact that inflation still remain very high the fact that GDP is only downward trend these are fats did they are empirical a verb verifiable you can go and check alright so there's very little that you can see about them if you talk about debts by 2009 a debt stock have been about 9 billion and today if you look critically at the data is about 26 billion there twenty six point five billion dollars in that respect this is fats and this you can hardly dispute that the table may talk about the father the previous regime that is the MPP regime actually received just about 20 billion Ghana Cedis compared to 240 something build on that has been received the 248 that they received during the NDC regime it's interesting I mean in terms of magnitude you know fine it has increase you can clearly see that that's a country junk you know but one can also argue that this is all your nominal basis you're looking at the nominal increase but not really the real increase this example is example to the ordinary passing yeah it's quite understandable and believable right since you do not dispute that far right that what the NDC has received over the period of eight years old close 80s is 12 times what the NDC received and yet about Mia says you cannot see on the ground infrastructure development and economic situation of the people any better than what used to be under the amounts referred to yes I think this is a common trick I mean if you look at the resources that have come in the fact that we have discovered oil would be in the period there if you look at the burrowing alone that if you check data between 2009 and now the government has added about 17 billion dollars more than 17 billion and that is more than what existed by 2009 so that alone would tell you that more resources are coming revenue to GDP my issue is if you only look at the nominal revenue and without controlling for prices because we did a period prices have increased you know inflation has gone up so if you really want to do the actual goods and services that 20 million come back compared to 246 you know you probably have to control for prices but even that if you look at one way of also deflating is is to do it over the GDP okay take the 20 billion over the GDP at a time and then the 246 as contrasted over GDP now and then you'll see in relative terms which one is higher now after they the rebasing our revenue to GDP actually fell to 11 percent around 11 to 12 percent our revenue to GDP now consistently our revolution GDP has been increasing in today's about 17 point something percent so in terms of relativity in terms of comparing you can clearly see that more revenue because with the larger piece and you have so been able to grow the revenue stream for about 17 percent then it tells you clearly that moment has come in even if you are not talking about inflation and all the other things so that alone could clearly tell you that more resources have come in compared to that pillar so I don't have a problem about that they the issue about the debts to GDP being 73 and some also arguing that it's 63 say 71-63 it's interesting it depends on what kind of information that you want to put out there if you look at how the Camerata created his he actually looked at up to me what is the debt accumulation up to me now up to me there's also a level of GDP that a country has reached so to do to actually tell the story as to what is the actual state of our debt stock to GDP then it is only fair that you take it up to that's time that is the main ending buy it because the dynastic a service actually have figures for April ended you know so we know by how much the GDP has grown there from 2015 to the first quarter of the year so you can't really talk and then how much you have accumulated up unto that time so when you do that that is what gives you the authority to pressure okay then someone also want to argue that okay what is the GDP projection for the year okay for the entire year so you do the GDP projection and you get set in figure that that gives you the ability to pay you know it gives you the absorptive capacity of the economy to absorb whatever debts that comes in so your repayment and the absorptive capacity are very important then you you increase the base and then you end the debts are the me at me now the problem is unless you say that between May and December you're really not going to add on to debt stock then of course you are right very much the case okay but if you from me to end of the December you still be increasing then of course you you find out that it it will not be you cannot really compare you know from what was the level there because the base would not have changed so it's important that the base changes you agree with dr. Berman when he says effectively all of this boils down to incompetence and the management of the economy he talks about corruption he what he he actually gives the impression to the ordinary person to expect that they ought to have been an equal measure of developmental projects and that we ought to have seen an economy where the people are more excited about you know life well of course dr. Bonilla is a politician so he's free to use certain words which I would not use although I concede the father the economy or the macroeconomic condition is challenged I mean it's almost in crisis and therefore if the economy is anything to go by then one we see that just as a fish just that moody just that the IMF will describe the economy that the economy today is not one of the best become if you do comparator country analysis even if you compared to the our own sub region echo as cote ivoire nigeria interest rates about 15 percent ghana is about 50 percent inflation much lower in tax rates and all that so we are really in difficult economic condition that we need to admit several factors can explain that you know you look at that the fact that I mean the chunk of it actually if you want to be objective come from what happened proud to 2012 election I mean where we overspent we engage in he was deficit spending and that took our debts budget deficit to GDP to about what everything has been thought that was reckless spending I mean everyone admit to that I mean international community and all that because thou shouldn't have happened because if you had because if you look at a year proud to that is one of the best years that we have ever recorded that is 2011 having the budget deficit of about 4% and then having two year consecutive double-digit inflation so that was one their business so what really want went wrong so definitely certain things that might have created that you know reckless spending I see of great dimension and then not keeping our eye on the dead stock okay and then the central bank's own financing of government budget deficit is largely to be blamed for many of the problems that because at that time the central bank financing actually reached about 32 percent they're about yeah purchasing government instruments you know so that was the more reason why the IMF the ECF program actually was on this central bank finance and I say that we can in the Minister of Finance at folsom says what Bamiyan did was share propaganda and that he engaged in let me quote him he said he engaged in he was he was he was insincere about the mana he went about it he spoke about let me say exactly what he sought to say the question of averages has already come up which he felt that is what ought to have been done but could you spoke to that he says that he was dealing in he costs something figures and I want to make reference without getting into any trouble okay right I'll look I'll look for some of the the words he used to describe what barmy I did but he says it is this boils down to propaganda what what do you have to say thank you you know figures may be disputed you know and the implications of the figures for economic development and all these things may also be argued but the point is that policy choices have different outcomes the policy choices of the NDC and the MPP have not been very different they are the same in the sense that all of them are what you might call monetarist they deal with inflation and the deficits by a monetary approach and that is a failure of an appreciation of the structure of our economy what leads to the deficits and so on but it's significant to point out that in pursuing those policies we are pursuing the interest of foreign interest a foreign financial interest and that will not bring any benefit and prosperity to our country our country is serving foreign interest one these deficits that the economy experiences are not transient they are structural the colonial implant it is something that has been planted by the colonial structure of the economy and it is this one colonialism in the formation of your economy one made sure that you applied your land resource to the supply of his romantic raw material to feed his industries he made it a single commodity cuckoo now that is a structure of you be a commodity dependent economy having deficits built in because one you buy blue he denies you industrialization and the facility ability to manufacture goose of high value so you buy high you sell ooh that is the structure of the economy no industrialization commodity export single commodity export and what the outcome will be is what we all call a stain our shocks because there will be fluctuation in your export earnings and when you have export you have a stellar shot which is fraught wish for tuition or export earnings you burmese have a deficit and you are buying high gasoline do you have a deficit so what is the answer the answer of the NDC and the MPP is reduced government expenditure let's borrow less raise taxes roll back the involvement of government in economic development planning and development we have done that for 32 years it has not wet anything that this is the key to promote growth it has not wet our people have become poorer there's massive unemployment so what are they doing it is a wrong appreciation of the problem and wrong prescription what they need to do with the CPP has recommended and did in the first Republic is the structural transformation of the economy we are structures we are not monetarist so we believe in industrialization so that we can reduce our import expenditure we believe in the diversification of the export sector away from commodities so we embarked on industrialization now what did the NDC and the MPP to mister danke when you look at dr. bamyas presentation and when I began the questioning by referring to what government has had to say for example one governor says he he relied on faulty data want you to assist our audience from where you sit in your understanding did he rely on faulty data the government responses that he ignored the facts in his is analysis did he ignore any facts he picked and chose data is that what you find in the presentation he did something the significant point whether he chose the wrong data or you chose the right data we are looking as politicians the impact of our policies on the people and that is what I want to address and tell you only want to analyze the true state of Ghana's economy and that's what he sought to do we want to help our audiences to understand if he really presented the true facts I don't think that is pertinent I don't think that is really pertinent because if is the matter of figures hmm there are so many ways of dealing with figures he pointed out how dr. Bonilla has dealt with the figures double-counting you know I mean please see if it's like an accountant if he wasn't draw you a balance sheet you can draw you one that makes it good height setting things in some places it is still admissible so that is not the contentious issues here now and I pray that we behave like politicians responsible for social policy and prosperity of our nation and that we are not going to Ameen figure or double with figures 10 percent here 5 percent here already you know who joke but you has already mentioned that we are not going to believe filler word open to 10.1% here it makes no difference and particularly also with the question of GDP growth they have been crippling about it Oh 7% is this is this is this you can have good that is not fairly distributed you can have good without jobs you know you can have good where the rich get richer and the poor get poorer unfair distribution you know and all these are questions of policy choices that I want us to address okay and I would like to to say something about could you think that if it is no classical or Keynesian you know you come to the same point no you don't these will affect your policy choices and if we're neoclassical go you go austerity you know if the money is it was charity cut your cost according to your size balance your budget and until you do that you are not ready to you're not ready for a take off and that has been presented I remember could you did an interview with me Ivy Helmand house some time ago and this issue came up doing one of the budgets and it was an MPP budget and then they said oh now we are ready for a take off they take off as never happened you know we we will we will take a break here and then when we return we take reactions cause you must made some notes and he will speak to them but when we return we'll deal with some very specifics and I'll be relying heavily on the analysis that have been done by Imani Imani for example says that dr. bomb is claimed that non-performing loans have risen from eleven point two percent in May 2015 to 19.2% in May 2016 and he says major banks are in trouble he says some banks are going to collapse if something serious is not done remaining has issues with that it says for example that these are not act of those situations we're not about Mia makes use of actual facts they stretch them out of context to point to to the point where some of the salient see in his argument is lost who come and deal with those other issues we'll be right back after this break [Music]

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Keywords: Ghana Political Issues, ghana Politics, Matters Arising in Ghana, NPP, CPP, PPP, National Budget, Chieftancy, Ghanaian lawyers, Economy, Constitution, Election, campaign, youtube, joy news, newsfile

Id: RzQteON_Cso

Length: 73min 53sec (4433 seconds)

Published: Sat Sep 10 2016