Asia Spotlight 2024: Geopolitical Outlook - A Decade of Living Dangerously

it's great to see you all here this morning and uh and can I just say to all of our team from the Asia Society uh from the mothership in New York it's so good to have you here in Washington DC uh from the Asia for the Asia Society family from around the rest of the United States and around the world so good to have you here in Washington DC as well and uh for this uh Asia Spotlight conference I'm so glad that this long-standing Vision uh with Henry Cornell's strong fin cial support has come to reality uh and that is to use this as an opportunity to bring together all the Asia society's expertise uh to reflect on the major challenges and developments of our time and find a strategic Landing point which works for us all that's the mission of the Asia Society I know a little bit about that CU I used to run the show uh and uh I didn't leave the shop too shabby when I left um and it's so good to see the institution in such great and Grand Health as I've seen it since you've all arrived here in Washington DC the panel that we've got for this next session has been given the um topic of a geopolitical Outlook um Agia decade of Living Dangerously uh you can blame me for the phrase the decade of Living Dangerously it's what I used in the book called The avoidable War which came out a year or so ago with Asia society's support uh when I was uh back when I was President um the reason why uh We've I chose that phrase and I assume uh the team have uh uh applied it to the session this morning is that if you stand back from the cut and thrust of each day and uh developments in domestic Politics the economy and the military and just and and in technology then we need always to go back to what I describe as some geostrategic fundamentals and the geostrategic fundamentals remain as follows uh number one um XI jinping's China uh has indicated for the last 10 years that it is not status quo it wants to change Regional realities and to change Global realities and to do those changes in a manner more compatible with China's interests and values uh this I take from China's own official statements um and its own internal political discourse of course uh the United States and its allies have had a different view uh and they have been uh much more uh opposed the idea of changing the Status Quo in the direction which China has sought of course where this reaches its sharpest Edge is over the future of Taiwan it reaches its sharpest Edge over conflicting territorial disputes in the East China Sea and the South China Sea and along the Sino Indian border and more broad broadly in the institutions of regional and Global governance so when we talk about the decade of Living Dangerously it's because these underpinning geopolitical forces are in fact at work and rubbing up against each other manifest in different ways at different times and on different issues my second Point by introduction is simply this so what happened in 2023 to shall we say soften that trajectory well a few things I think the first is uh from the Chinese lens uh and China looking at uh the uh period ahead that starting from the Bali Summit uh between President Biden president XI at the end of 2022 uh navigating with some difficulty our way through the grand balloon incident which literally occurred a year ago and then thirdly uh through most recently uh the San Francisco Summit between President xiin ping and President Biden there have been some underlying dynamics of uh driving change in my view uh from beijing's lens one I think has been China's view that because of uh the difficulties in its own domestic economic growth performance it was time to bring down geostrategic tensions um China's growth as we know uh in the period uh following the abolition of zero covid on December the 6th in 2022 has been difficult uh this has registered loud and clear in the halls of the leadership in Beijing and there's been a conclusion that we need as China's concern far as China's concerned to refocus on rebuilding the growth number numbers um and you can see this in a number of policy shifts uh on the economy which have unfolded during the course of 2023 um the there's another reason I think which has caused China to reflect on its previous course um and I think those are the cumulative impact of China's approach to warar diplomacy um this didn't work so well um it tended to create more problems than it solved it created more enemies and it made friends uh and the cumulative reflection on that in Beijing uh was that this was not a wise course of action to continue so if I reflect on China's relationship not just with the United States but with countries like my own Australia um but other parts of the world as well Europeans uh the neighbors the Japanese the Koreans Etc uh even our good friends in Vietnam and I acknowledge my friend and colleague the Vietnamese Ambassador who's with us today uh you can see some change um not Universal but you see some evidence of that so what about Uncle Sam uh what about the United States if these are some of the factors uh driving Beijing towards a desire to bring the temperature down that is problems in its domestic economic Performance Plus unnecessary and unacceptable levels of foreign policy and security policy friction with neighbors and countries around the world Washington has judged in my assessment that it is also useful for the year ahead to bring down the geopolitical temperature in order to reduce the risk of Crisis conflict and War by accident metal on metal in particular in the South China Sea across the Taiwan Straits where if you look at 2023 there have been a truckload of incidents and near misses between aircraft and involving Naval vessels that I think has been Washington's lens and so the Confluence of those interests I think you see reflected in what unfolded at The Summit in San Francisco uh most recently my third and last Point as we move to the panel uh is the big question which we confront which is are these changes therefore likely to be short-term or long-term are they likely to be tactical uh or strategic this is an open question um I've read carefully the internal literature in the Chinese system most recently quite a long article in the Communist party's theoretical Journal called chir on shiin Ping's delineation between tactics and strategy strategy uh is for the long term and it's about China's ultimate ambition concerning the great Rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and China moving to a more prominent position in the region in the world uh and tactics is shortterm and how you adjust according to the circumstances of the time so the jury is out as to whether what we have seen so far this year is tactical uh or strategic uh from China's lens and on the American side uh how this will unfold as well particularly if there is a change in administration uh at the end of this year when the presidential election is held in November at a material Level now the uh the arteries have been unfrozen between Washington and Beijing the first MTO Mill conversations have been had several of them in fact um on top of that there is now a dialogue unfolding on artificial intelligence uh we now have renewed cooperation between the United States and China on the fenel challenge in this country um and I see Todd stern here great friend and colleague and a and a true hero of American climate change action um over the years we now see the resumption of effective climate dialogue between the two sides as well so the big question in my mind as an analyst is looking at all this is can these short-term shifts that we've seen gain sufficient momentum in themselves to generate sufficient bilateral confidence to become long-term forces for strategic change that as I see it as part of the challenge for this decade of the dangerously the panel which the O Society has pulled together for this uh is a terrific panel uh uh we have uh friends and colleagues from all over the place uh who I it's been my pleasure to work with over many many years starting with my good friend here hchi Chan co-chair of the Asia Society Singapore's Ambassador at large um good friend all round person Bon vion a person who puts up with me when I go to Singapore and takes me to dinner and enormously knowledgeable on the region and uh and one of uh Singapore's longest serving ambassadors here in Washington or were you the longest serving okay modestly she nods her head she has been the longest serving so enormous expertise and we're so glad hangi to have you uh with us my good friend San Kai a former ambassador to the United States and rivaling hang Chi as his country's longest serving Ambassador here in the US I won't say publicly last night what Ambassador you told me about the length of that service um but uh in this room uh we admire the professionalism you've BR to what is a complex challenge uh and we certainly wish you well on what we know will not be not be a full retirement in Beijing and thank you for joining us Raja Mohan uh who is a friend and colleague uh from India Asia Society policy Institute senior fellow in Delhi uh I was delighted when I was president of the Asia Society to bring him on board um he is um India's foremost analyst of its uh it his country's uh foreign policy and security policy he's a public intellectual within the country appears in multiple forms and forms of the Indian media and we're so proud to have you representing the Asian Society in India um and we also have te Morty um uh former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan uh first of career Diplomat and like me entered uh the service back in 1983 uh you've weathered much better than I have my friend you look much less shopworn than I do uh served previously in Germany and in Singapore uh has been Chief of Staff also to his own Minister before being appointed uh Vice Minister it's so good to have you here as well reflecting Japan's view um and Dino Jalal Dino I've known since the Mesolithic period um and uh and uh dino is a a wonderful expression of what I describe as the vibrancy of the new Indonesian democracy I first got to know Dino well when he was a senior advisor to then uh president U cilo bang bang Yono uh in uh in Jakarta and we have um been party to so many discussions uh over the years that I know him to be not just uh deeply knowledgeable in terms of his own country's politics and foreign policy uh but also those of The Wider region as well uh he's also the founder of the foreign policy community in Indonesia which is one of the countries and regions most active foreign policy think tanks um and a person who is wise in his observations about the region the United States himself also having served as Ambassador here in Washington so friends um you have before you a superb panel of people who know what they're talking about I've simply posed some crude questions hang Chi over to [Applause] you thank you very much Kevin for that introduction for that background brief setting the stage for the questions and the discussion here here you know Australia is part of the region we are having Regional perspectives here Australia is in Asia and I think of Asia some question that the uh this morning we've had two provocative discussions and very interesting discussions and it struck me and I'm sure it struck you that much of the discussion on the Asia geopolitical Outlook was was focused on China in fact in the panel with the journalists reporting on Asia it was not until the third uh speaker from uh PBS and then I think it was Edward Wang from New York Times that I heard South China Sea and I heard the Korean Peninsula everyone was talking about China well you're going to get a variety of perspectives on the on this panel we have Indonesia here Japan India and China speaking and I would like them to have more speaking time than the speakers Did have on the last panel because it's not often you get such distinguished voices from Asia all on one panel so I propose to give each of the speakers about five to seven more 7 minutes to give us their take on the region then I propose to POS a couple of questions but really it is for you to ask some questions because you really don't have an opportunity like this but if there's a drag I'll come up with more questions so let's begin and I propos to begin with Indonesia you know because you're from my region Dino and Southeast Asia does not get a a lot of speaking time in this town so Dino floor is yours okay and and please alert me when my time uh is up yeah and and I want to pick up where Wendy asked last question what is the good news uh coming from the region and there's plenty of good news yeah uh I mean if you look at for example uh the four major conflicts in the world North and South Korea Israel Palestine Russia Ukraine South China Sea South China Sea is the only only conflict where both sides are talking uh And discussing on how manage uh uh the conflict uh and Southeast Asia you see digital economy is growing connectivity uh is is growing um uh the the middle class is is uh growing uh strongly uh and relationships among Southeast Asian countries are relatively stable and uh with a great deal of cooperation I know the title of this uh event is uh uh the Year of Living Dangerously but I think southeast Asia has had the benefit of uh experiencing Regional uh resilience and I think uh we have been able to design what I would call an anti-manic Regional design in the sense that in our region no no no country from outside the region dominates and no country from inside the region dominates if any country from the outside wants to play uh uh in Southeast Asia they have to play by rules set by Southeast Asian countries and Southeast Asian countries are driver of regional Affairs and relationships among Southeast Asian countries are also uh quite stable uh and and and Cooperative so uh so so that's one I think uh the good news is southeast Asia uh has shown uh reasonable uh Regional uh resilience uh about choosing what do we choose about between the United States and China you hear this all the time we don't want to choose but uh the better answer is that we choose both yeah uh it's uh for us for us in Indonesia for example uh to choose one over the other would be a political suicide for for for the government and besides constitutionally we're not allowed uh to uh uh uh to be aligned uh to establish a military lines uh with uh any country yeah uh we prefer to have a polygamous relationships we are very comfortable uh with that uh and uh beyond that we do want us and China to uh get along uh and not just get along I've issued this challenge several times uh we would like to challenge the United States and China to establish one uh scheme or project of cooperation in Southeast Asia and we quite amazed that this has not happened right uh and I don't think uh this is uh uh so much uh to ask of any of these Powers but uh uh a Cooperative scheme by United States and China in Southeast Asia would uh uh mean a great deal in terms of confidence building uh in our region uh in so far as our region is concerned uh when we look at the Indo Pacific I think the notion of inclusion uh is is critical right uh and this is why uh with all these competing uh Concepts on uh indopacific uh for us the term inclusion is key and why is that key because we do not want any Regional design which excludes China right uh I think no Regional design can be durable if it excludes or marginalize uh one of the key Powers uh in the region so for us inclusion is very much important uh in how we see uh the the regional uh architecture um maybe the last point before uh uh uh I give the floor to to the others look uh the US and China you need to earn your spot in in in Southeast Asia uh my organization we just did a survey of Southeast Asians uh government and non-government people and we ask them their opinions about the United States China India and uh Japan and uh it shows a lot that uh you need to uh earn your seat at the table right uh what I'm saying is look uh if you don't do your work the region moves on and leaves you behind right uh let me give you some some uh interesting um uh findings uh the United States is seen as the country with the most political and strategic influence and China comes out uh second uh China is seen as the most coercive power 49% but us also is seen second to that uh 37% uh China is seen as a country with the honic ambition 49% us also at 31% uh least trustworthy country is seen to be China at 43% and United States at 34% uh but us is seen as a country that is most likely to intervene at 47% and China at uh 36% and the country that is seen to be most likely to use economic measures for political objective is China 57% and United States at uh 29 %. so as you see these numbers will keep going up and down yeah uh but the point is uh very important uh for the United States and China um just really to work to earn your spot and and and Trust uh in in in southeast uh Asia and especially for the United States I think your public diplomacy uh really needs uh to uh be uh uh upgraded uh you have really skillful diplomats but I don't think they are funded uh enough uh to uh pursue a Public Relation public diplomacy campaign that is on On a par with China yeah maybe I'll stop there uh thank you Dino uh I will go to uh Minister Mori now yes uh Ambassador uh thank you very much and uh I would like to thank ASP for having me uh today so uh Asia's decade of uh Living Dangerously it's it's not only Asia which is living dangerously we the world has entered a new era uh the previous era was the post Cold War era this post Cold War Cold War era started with uh kind of euphoria now that uh confrontation of ideology is over through uh globalization and interdependence uh the world will be will be one naturally so that was the idealistic thinking and very quickly it was betrayed by the reality so uh we experienced uh the war against terrorism uh not so successful Arab Spring and globalization resulted in uh unequal development uh did the division in the international society and in many countries also domestically and uh it also created big gaps uh in the military balance so the old world was very much uh uh destroyed without that people got aware of that uh in G20 and in various fora we pretended that yes the world will be one based on universal values and the West uh was the most persistent in believing in Universal values but uh the Russian aggression on Ukraine uh blew up all this and there was a kind of dumb burst since that it is so rare that we talk about Universal values the uh world is fragmented uh there is competition of Nations that is the keyword so confrontation between east and west south and north and uh confrontation even among the like-minded countries that is where we are and uh [Music] uh we do know we do not know how to overcome this situation for Japan it was striking that our uh friends which are now which call themselves uh the global South very quickly drifted away from us and I think that was a result of uh a long period of time when we did not really uh take care of the uh problems which those countries had we just uh uh pretended that we are one world so um now we are facing a situation which is which is not based on Military balance which is full of dis distrust and uh I think what we have to do first is of course recreate military balance so uh us is on the right track and Japan is doing its own part and we are making utmost efforts to strengthen the Japan us Alliance this is one thing and second of course we have to have uh uh good communication good communication where we see a crisis and difficulties and therefore I very much appreciate that uh communication between the US and China is now functioning on the highest level it is the efforts to uh set up so-called God rates which should prevent uh problems to derail into serious conflicts we appreciate these efforts and Japan is also doing uh communication with China we are very happy that we had a good meeting on the highest level at The Fringe of Apec last November these are the necessary minimum conditions to keep peace in our region beyond that I think we we have to start new efforts to build common ground for for discussion so uh what we think is necessary is that everybody reconfirms that the UN chter and the important fundamental principles set out in this Charter continue to be relevant this is the minimum and uh uh these includes equality of sovereignity re respect for territorial integrity and prohibition of use of force if that is denied then uh the mankind uh must go back to the 19th century or before so uh we uh had a meeting in hirosima at G7 together with uh guest countries including India Indonesia and Brazil and we all agreed that these principles must be obeyed so I think this is the uh start uh of uh having profound discussions on how we reconstruct the world in this context I have to say that I'm very disappointed that still now many countries keep their neutral position concerning the uh aggression Russian aggression against Ukraine we are disappointed and we are disappointed that some countries even support Russia even after this aggression this is something which is very disturbing so uh in our region we would like to continue our efforts in accordance with the a common concept the free and open Indo Pacific so this is a concept which was endorsed actually in the last months of the Trump Administration and that was also I mean the support continued in in the Biden Administration we continue to do uh actual actions uh in order to facilitate this concept this concept is not based on on values like democracy or human rights Al so it is that the minimum is that that every uh partner should uh respect the rule of law and uh freedom of navigation and free trade and uh connectivity so we would like to start at the bottom and uh this concept is an inclusive one we are inviting everybody of course including China to join and thus we would like to build up our region and we are very happy that uh Indonesia uh took the initiative for the aoip which is very much aligned with the with our free and open Indo Pacific so asan is on board and us and we are South Korea everybody is now getting on board on this uh uh concept how we should live together so uh I hope that uh we can continue this path together also with China thank you uh thank you Mr Mori Raja your turn good morning uh wonderful to be here this uh session with you with all of you we already had a quite a stimulating discussion so let me just make three points on the subject of this uh panel the first to start from prime minister rud's uh proposition that uh can you bring changes have proded bring your mic up okay the first point uh on how Shin Ping's changes have produced a number of consequences I I would say India is perhaps the most affected by some of the changes we've seen in Beijing uh you talked about uh us China relationship being bad but at least we see some engagement but the India India China relationship has never been as bad as it is today very limited engagement uh we have 60,000 troops standing face to face at about 177,000 ft for the fourth winter in a row that's where we are uh there was a point in 2020 the tanks on both sides were pointed at each other which are really barely 100 m apart uh in the in the high Himalayas just to illustrate how bad the situation is while China seems to be engaging uh us Japan Australia uh it has not been possible at least for India to see any fundamental change in the way China is dealing with uh with with India the issue is uh really at least From delhi's perspective ding's changes away from maet uh saw enormous Improvement in the India China India China relationship and sent Ping's move away from ding's good neighborly policy has produced a range of negative effects and I don't see how we're going to get over that uh in the uh in the near term uh the Chinese say look let's put the Border aside and start getting back to business uh India is saying the state of the Border will Define the state of the relationship because the trust that was built in 30 years where large troop movement would not take place there would be no surprise exercises near the close to each other's borders many of those confidence building measures that were built have simply collapsed so we really at a new place if and when we start engagement of we really have to reinvent the whole question of how to manage the complex border and what is the balance between border and the other issues that brings me to the second point so when I talk to my Chinese friends and I say look how do we how do we end this stalemate how do we go forward at least one answer I get is that really what's the point you're already allies of the United States now this is come somewhat you know I tell my Chinese friends look you've been closer to the United States much longer you even now you have a thicker denser relationship with the US than India has why is it that our relationship with the United States is such a problem for China because China has lived with US troops in Japan in Korea all across the first island chain but it's only with India for some reason Maybe I'm Wrong that the US relationship is put front and center so that brings me to the Triangular relationship between India us and China uh it's true that India and China never had good relationship with the us at the same time so we're at a point today us China relationship there's some tension while India us relationship has dramatically expanded in the in the last few years but I would think as two large Neighbors we have to solve our problems irrespective of what the US does there'll be one president today there'll be another president they might be in they might be out we are large Asian Nations we need to solve this problem and I think that requires really a fresh start and at this point uh we're not at the start a third let me say something a little more controversial uh uh looking to the Future uh I would say I don't know how many of you have heard the phrase post China world uh this is rer Sharma who's one of the you know financial analyst from New York he's basically saying the kind of Paradigm that we saw after 7179 the four Decades of China's economic growth and the merging of Chinese and the US economies we are not in that place whether it's demographic whether it is the trade tensions we going to see a new phase in the US China relationship and I think what it does this post China world I don't think Chinese power is going to go down anytime soon because there'll still be the second largest economy the second largest military what we've seen happen in the last few years is really the rise in the agency of other Asian countries also to my American friends most of them are the European friends who seen Asia merely through the lens of China there's much bigger Asia Beyond it and I think last three years of policies we've seen whether it's Japan asserting itself or India asserting itself or Vietnam or Philippines you see that Chinese nationalism is not the only nationalism in Asia we're all nationalist in Asia easily provoked and one nationalism can easily be pitted against another nationalism so so I think we are at a place where I think a more multi-polar Asia the large number of Asian countries each with 100 million plus India of course is 1 billion plus you have these countries today who have the capacity and the agency to reshape the neighborhood the question is for us can we do it in the context of us China rivalry or it becomes even more important for us to redefine an naian framework where we have the agency to shape our own region irrespective of what happens between China and the US let's stop thank you Raja U interesting thoughts many questions uh Ambassador CH thank you very much let me first thank Asia Society for having me here for this conference it's very nice to be back in Washington DC especially it's still early in the year 2024 I don't know what will happen later in the year so it's good time to be back anyway well when I first saw the subject of our panel Asia's decade of Living Dangerously I was a bit puzzled I know the inspiration came from an old old movie The Year of Living Dangerously but the movie was made 42 years ago and the story was even earlier it's about what happened in the mid 1960s in the height of Cold War so I was puzzled why we are talking about such an old subject today but having listened to the previous speakers I some somehow realize that it's good time for us to have a close look at such eventuality if we allow some of the uh uh kind of cold war mentality that people raised early in the morning if we allow this kind of mentality to come back and dominate our region if we allow some attempt to continue to start major power conflicts in the region and try to distort and cut off supply chain value chain in our region then there is a real possibility that we have to deal with a decade of Living Dangerously or even we have to wonder whether we have a decade of living at all dangerously or peacefully so we have to work together to guard against such risks in our region a lot has been said about China China's policy China's intention or the changes in China or the changes started by China I don't think I can do justice to all these comments Within These few minutes but let me try uh first of all China's intentions China's goals I think it's very clear and very simple our goal is China's modernization it's not anything about global dominance or even Regional hegemony it's everything about how to make ourselves better to bring better life to our own people not at anybody else's expense but rather as China grows we make greater contribution to the region to the world with the goal of setting up a community of nations with a shared future it it's as simple as that and this is certainly the guidelines for China's foreign policy of course I don't know whether it's fortunate or F or unfortunate the first priority is always our relation with the United States uh but we have made it very clear especially by presiden she uh in November in San Francisco we believe that the fundamental choice for the two countries is whether we are going to be partners or foes and we have made it very clear that we want to be partner and friend with the United States how the US would respond it's really up to the United States itself and we certainly want to have a peaceful and stable region so that China could achieve its goal of modernization that was certainly include our relation with India I was in India uh more than a little bit more than a year ago had a good meeting with the foreign minister who was also for while Ambassador here and I had I had good discussion with the think tanks both in New Delhi and mumbay so I learned a lot from my Indian friends so at the end of our discussion I suggest to them well this is certainly a something very personal I said personally I believe and I do hope that India will grow faster and better and you could uh take up the number two position in the world then the United States will focus on you and leave us alone but I have to say everything I'm going to say is my personal views I'm retired I'm not speaking on behalf of any government agency or any institution we know that we as neighbors we have uh problems sometimes we have sometimes we have difficulties but still I think we have much larger common interest that we should grow and develop and pro be prosperous together and keep the regional stability here then about the changes in China I think actually nothing will remain constant in the world for any country China India United States Indonesia Japan we are always changing but we have a strong continuity for China's national goal National strategy and foreign policy we still China is still uh the largest developing country in the world although you now have a larger somehow larger population than we do we are very happy to concede that number one to you uh we we are still the largest developing country in the world and in the sense you see I spent most part of the last decade here in Washington DC I think it's fair to say while China is still the largest developing country in the world at least for the last decade United States could be seen as the largest quote un unquote revisionist country in the world just look at what is happening here in this country so I think all of us have to adapt to the changing world have to make sure our policies are based on the right perception and to have to find identify common interest and mutual needs and try to work together this has been our goal all along and then maybe last word on on Taiwan because a number of people touched upon this question basically the election in Taiwan was a local election in China and people are talking about how China will achieve its National reunification we will have we will achieve reunification one way or another but we certainly want to do that in the way that will best serve the national interest of the entire Chinese Nation including people on both sides of tyan street we will certainly do it in a way that will serve the larger interest of regional stability and peace we certainly don't want to see a situation where Chinese are killing Chinese that's not our way of doing things we have a long history of civilization we have the Asian wisdom we have the Chinese ways of doing things we will not fall into the Trap some may be preparing for us that they will supply military assistance they will supply weapons for pro proxy war and Chinese will be killing Chinese we will not fall into that trap so maybe I should stop here and then respond to the question thank you well thank you very much uh a lot of points have been made each from a different perspective but I think in everything we've heard from each speaker you've heard of lack of communication you know Mr Mori wants better Communications um my friend uh dino you know is concerned that you know we have to work on building confidence and we are not doing confidence building uh Raja has brought up the India China border dispute as you know well that's a new uh conflict that you have highlighted which nobody has mentioned but is very much there but uh and I think um Ambassador Tre has tried to answer all the questions or some of the points that were raised this morning not all but some of the points and I think what is very clear is that there is an absence of strategic trust in the region whether it's because of lack of communication or because there are real issues there that cause this absence of trust and you have some have said you know Israel the United States you know producing this framework but if Asians were to work out a pathway but not excluding the other great powers in the region United States role how would you begin to build trust in the region what steps would you suggest that all the great powers and the middle powers and the small powers can have a parted any take us first well Dino so you know I work here in DC for some time and then I am based in Southeast Asia what what what I noticed is that in in in the DC somehow China bashing has become the norm and uh nobody says anything good about China if China something does something good it will be frowned upon if you recognize that and in my view that's un healthy because in Southeast Asia you know we have a relationship with China we have uh good things opportunities but we're also have issues right but we're not there we're not we we're not stuck in that China uh bashing mode I remember I was saying something remotely nice about China and I was hey din know you're a panda hugger right and I'm just saying you know how do you resolve complex relationship with that kind of mindset um so keep in mind that I come from Indonesia where some decades ago if I were caught talking to P Chui I would be fired because we used to fear China we you know we we froze diplomatic relations but we made that leap right we made that leap and not just with China we did so with uh East Tour it was very ugly breakup and then we made that leap uh uh with Australia also we had very uncomfortable relationship but uh we made uh that jump I I think what it requires uh heni is uh first is political will do you say do you recognize that it's worth the political risk uh to reach out to the other side and secondly uh you have to have Craft um it can't be just not doing anything you got to give something you got to compromise and what that is is is you know you have to decide but most important ly once you make those moves uh once you make that leap uh the political will uh the craft uh consistency is what builds the relationship remember uh Indonesia and Singapore we used to have confront right uh and then we fixed that uh between President swaro and Lan Yu but the consistency of that relationship and the ability to show Goodwill is what really develop uh strategic trust between our countries right so you want the Goodwill and the political will and the consistencies and push yeah the craft also uh Mr Mory thank you uh I think uh building trust is uh not easy but not impossible uh I said uh that uh we agreed upon the importance of the UN Charter and we will cooperate in the framework of uh uh uh for open in the Pacific but these conceptual Works have have their limits and I think it will be very uh useful to have a concrete cooperation uh in which uh everybody will really try to uh achieve uh good results so for example well it's just just an example but if we have common interest in uh somehow creating good ideas for for how Gaza should be administered after the crisis so if we in in Asia could get together and have uh discussions on how Asia can contribute to that that maybe for example one one idea to uh really see into the the eyes of the partners and uh uh I have another idea and that would be discussion on what we do with the uh cooperation between North Korea and Russia I think it is really our common interest that this kind of cooperation does not continue so uh North Korea delivering am mission and uh Russia giving uh North Korea technology for ballistic missiles and I don't know what so this is really not in interest of of everybody here so why can't we have discussion on those issues so common interest common concrete projects together this is I think something which could be interesting and sorry one more Point uh I think it is very important that the tourists go back and forth much more so uh in the Japan China relationship I think uh the huge wave of Chinese people coming to Japan changed a lot the perception of Chinese people on Japan so this is a little bit stagnating after covid but I think that will be something which once again accelerates Mutual understanding between Japan and China thank uh thank you Mr Mor you gave actually not small ideas they're Big Ideas working on a Gaza solution and you know a North Korea stabilization you know and North Korea relationship with Russia you know I I have a proposal but uh is small but I'll listen to the others verse Raja okay I think trust is important is a necessary condition to improve things but it's not a sufficient condition I think mere trust building is not enough it won't work if we don't address the causes of the problem that is s r invoke chairman ma to say let you have to walk on both the legs you have to build confidence building measures you have to develop guard rails because communication crisis stability those are very important but the sources the problem that creates the crisis is something else so therefore you have to address on both the fronts and I think mainly talking about trust without addressing other questions the root causes I think we have a problem I'll just conclude with you know we can keep talking about all kinds of principles there's only one core principle that needs to be respected you don't take the territory of your neighbors by force if you come to an agreement on that that territories can be changed in Europe has changed it so many times this still going on right now you know the violent means that peaceful change of borders is acceptable but trying to change borders by using Force by using historical claims I think that is what creates problems therefore I think there was a time when when all of us said look let's keep let the sleeping dogs lie let's stabilize these Frontiers let's work together I think we need to go back to the dunsing model good neighborliness focus on economic growth rather than revising or reclaiming historical territorial because I said all of us are nationalists we all love territory thank you I really have to move this fast uh Ambassador well I think uh honestly the level of strategic trust between some of the major Powers is very low now yeah and this is causing a lot of concern a lot of trouble uh but we have have seen some positive development see in the right direction more recently for instance the summit between China United State in San Francisco and the message given by President Shi when he was speaking to the American public it's a very clear and strong message of friendship and Good Will so in order to restore Mutual trust we need need Good Will to start with and we need good faith to keep it you could make very good policy statement then the next day you throw it all of it away you lose credibility so we need Good Will and good faith and we have to persist perhaps gradually we'll build back the mutual trust maybe it's impossible for countries to have complete Trust of each other but if we have the right perception of the major Trends in the world if we have the right perception of the common interests then I think it's safe to say that we have growing Mutual trust I don't want to touch upon the Border issue between China and India I spent a long long time when I was doing Asian Affairs negotiating with my Indian college they they said that why don't you come back to the position of Jo life and I asked so why didn't you accept Jon as proposal so it's endless discussion but thank you thank you um actually I was wondering whether countries in Asia you know most all of us are signed here at this uh on this panel we have signed to the aoip a Asian outlook on the Indo Pacific United States has signed on to it too can we do some vaccine cooperation and to to deal with the next pandemic not the past pandemic we all worry about disease X can we start talking about that little steps start working together because right now we are not so bringing some people together so that's a very small low ambition suggestion so now let me throw this um you know uh let's give the audience an opportunity yes thank you can you identify yourself and say where you're from because it helps them yeah thank you very much fantastic panel my name is fum K I work for Politico I have one quick question because I know political political um I want to ask one question it uh we looking at the very real possibility of a second Trump presidency yeah um my question to all of you Ambassador Jalal Vice foreign minister Mory Dr moan Ambassador sway what does a second Trump presidency mean in terms of the decade of living dangerous ly more dangerous less dangerous I love your ideas thank you very much from each of you thank you you took away the question I was going to post to them but fine terrific uh anyone first or you want to go first yeah you know in southeast Asians we work with uh every every uh democratically elected Administration in in in the US so we' a track record has has shown that but I'll be honest because I'm not government official anymore so I think what we associate with Trump is is one is uh unpredictability yeah uh and even volatility yeah we just don't know where he's going next uh and that adds to a greater deal of uh uncertainty and I want to remind that uh his message of America first uh didn't sit well with many of us in Southeast Asia because we expected us leadership and that would not uh that would be contradictory to the uh doctrine of uh America First yes Raja look I think we don't have a vote in the US elections you know we get consumed by what happens from primary from February to all the way down to the November time because it's whole world is looking at this election doesn't mean we have a vote or we have a veto for what the US does so we have to deal with whoever gets elected as a president of the United States for us I think from as a desp passionate Observer the changes that we've seen under Trump and which have continued under Biden for example in relation to trade policy they're a result of structural changes in the US domestic politics so I think it's not something we simply saying well there's no economic component to Indo Pacific look if the domestic politics in the US has changed we have to deal with that new reality rather than simply saying well Trump is bad Biden is good it's really not we don't have a dog in the fight but we have a dog in the consequences of what comes out of this fight yeah the yes the two officials are slower to take up the mic Mr Mor or Ambassador CH well um difficult to answer this question uh I'm also not not any government official but still um uh rather difficult uh to to answer what I can say is that um uh we had uh excellent uh relationship with uh president Trump maybe thanks to prime minister Abby at that time and uh uh we we are we are going to have a good relationship with every uh president democratically uh elected in the US so uh having said that we are as an ally of us very uh very much worrying about how much the American society is divided so whoever could be elected we as an ally hope that within the us there should be trust building measures and uh uh I hope that uh uh we we in our region should not have be faced to to this uh question uh anymore so um this is probably Maxim what I can say now Ambassador well I think if we non Americans if we're foreigners try to make predictions about about us domestic politics or even to express preferences then we are sure to have long Years of Living Dangerously so we are not going to do that but at the same time What Happens here in the United States will have a major impact on the interest of the rest of us hopefully my American friends will be more aware of this and when you make policy when you make choices when you take actions please take into account the legitimate interest of other countries including China but for us we have very simple hope that there will be continued bipartisan support for stable and constructive relation with China there will be continued bipartisan commitment to the one China policy that's it thank you uh yes tii jry po uh Global Trustee of Asia Society thank you all for a wonderful panel my question is for Dr Mohan who's talked a lot about India China uh challenges but I'd like to turn to something else which is India is a member of the Quad India is also part of the bricks India has strong relations with America India has quite strong relations with Russia uh and my question is is this magic the Russia us relationship that India uh now benefits from and I think there are substantial benefits economically um is it sustainable over the longer term look I think it's you know what is the way you framed it it looks very symmetric but the relationships are not symmetric as I said look we might be sitting in the bricks and the Rick along with our Chinese friends and the Russian friends but I said we have a serious conflict going on between India and China we're trying to decouple at least as much as we can on the economic front trying to reduce our technological exposure to China that's a reality so that reality shapes what India does in the quad and what India does in the in the bricks for example when the bricks wants to issue an endorsement of belt and Road they have to mention all the other countries and drop India's name that's what diplomats are paid to fix problems like that so so I think the nature of the conflict between India China and the growing convergence of interest between India and the US profoundly changed the quality of what happens in the quad and what happens uh in in the bricks on the Russia question look the Russia trade with India is about 10 billion do if we remove the recent oil our trade with United States is $200 billion where are the Indians going to study they going to the US or the English speaking countries where are they doing business in the English speaking countries where do the tourist go to the english- speaking country so so I think you know just we have a path dependence on Russia but the sance of Russia in India's international relations is on the decline so I think and India's enhancement of its relationship with the West is now structural and I see that growing and if we can manage our relationship with China that will put us in a much better position but at this point we're not the but hopefully we'll get this now I've been rushed one minute left but I think our introduction was quite long so if I could take some of Kevin's time and you know ask the last question if anyone has a last question or I'll POS the last question you want to ask yes there's a hand right at the back uh Ambassador Chan mentioned uh the next pandemic by which we usually mean infectious diseases but there's already a pandemic in China and and in India of cancer and diabetes and soon Alzheimer's is international collaboration in these areas significant enough to the leaders in China in particular to cause changes in the geopolitical tension in order to achieve more collaboration in saving people's lives from these diseases well is the collaboration in these medical Fields strong enough good enough to mitigate the tensions actually when I was talking of the collaboration on the pandemic I looked at aoip as a platform because the United States is a member China is a member and and you know Japan uh all the Assan countries India and if they could just get together there and start a little project work get away from the last pandemic you know of covid and look at the future how would we do things over again if you have another pandemic how do you work out the protocols how do you come together quickly to save human kind I think that's a worthwhile project and surely we can rise above you know know current geopolitical uh you know uh stresses especially now that it is post San Francisco and there's greater collaboration between the United States and China it was really that but you are right diabetes is a big problem cancer is a big problem Asia Society has a cancer initiative you know we're trying to work out and I think you mentioned Alzheimer's too yeah can I just add one thing I mean I I I want to say this again because you know you want to hear Southeast Asian view Americans have amazing diplomats Chinese also have amazing diplomats again we can't understand why these two amazing group of diplomats can't just come up with one simple project in Southeast Asia a solar panel project how difficult would that be right a CO thing a connectivity project an IT project a Village uh you know uh development is that such a political taboo you do that one thing I swear to you the soueast Asians will applaud and will say well there is hope in the world right is that such a political taboo I don't understand thank you uh dino uh now I'll just I'm the moderator but i' like to just make this statement as someone who watches the US China relationship closely it strikes me that both sides deal in caricatures the United States overdraws China and China the netizens and all are beginning to overdraw America so you are not you are you dealing with reality you're dealing with caricatures of each other and it snowballs and affects all of us you know so how do you step back from that and I have no answer for that May well you see actually I was here as a Chinese Ambassador at the earlier days of the uh of covid-19 there was very good daily communication between the embassy and the White House to be honest and people were trying very hard to coordinate uh our efforts dealing with the pandemic and even facilitate uh flow of goods medical Goods then the political situation changed so everything was blocked that that was very unfortunate we should have done a much better job responding to covid-19 but because of the political difficulties or maybe as we touched upon earlier lack of political um strategic trust we did not do that it's very unfortunate but I believe this is an important area of cooperation not only between China and United States but also globally and we also have climate change we have ai and all these new technologies we have to work together otherwise no single country can really handle them or by itself so in this regard I hope all of us when we talk about so-called taking S I hope all of us China United States asan countries and Japan others will take the same side the right side of History the side of building a community of nations with a shared future and that's my sincere hope thank you

Channel: Asia Society

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Id: mUrnDj4DMo4

Length: 72min 7sec (4327 seconds)

Published: Tue Jan 30 2024