In November 2023, the Armenian
prime minister skipped the latest Summit meeting of the Russian-led
Collective Security Treaty Organization. Widely seen as a direct snub to the
Russian President, Vladimir Putin, the decision is a particularly public sign of
the growing tensions between Yerevan and Moscow. Naturally, this has fed speculation that the
two countries are now on course for a final break - especially as Armenia has also
been building relations with the West. But is Armenia really ready to make such a
fundamental strategic and geopolitical shift? Hello and welcome. If you're new to the
channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I take an informed look at international
relations, conflict, security, and statehood. The war in Ukraine has seen many European countries radically re-evaluate
their foreign policy orientation. For some, such as Sweden and Finland, this has meant casting aside long-held
neutrality and pursuing NATO membership. For others, such as Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, this has been primarily focused on pressing
ahead with speedy European Union integration. But there's one country on the periphery of Europe where the geopolitical shift has
been much more muted: Armenia. Since the end of the Cold War, it
has remained closely tied to Russia. However, these ties have recently
come under unprecedented strain. As a result, it now appears to be
reconsidering its overall strategic direction. And yet, as much as it may seem to want to
make a final break with Moscow and align itself with the West, the decision
isn't quite as easy as it may seem. The Republic of Armenia
lies in the South Caucasus. Landlocked, to its North is Georgia, to its
West is Turkey, and to its South is Iran. To its East, it neighbours Azerbaijan, which also has an enclave - Nakhichevan
- along Armenia's southwest border. The population currently
stands at around 2.8 million. This is almost entirely
comprised of ethnic Armenians, who are almost exclusively Christian
and speak an Indo-European language. On top of this, a further seven million or
so Armenians make up an extensive diaspora community stretching across North America,
Europe, the Middle East, and Oceania. Its per capita GDP is around US$8,200,
making it a middle-income country. The Armenians have an extraordinarily
long, complex, and fascinating history. Having emerged at some point before the Sixth
Century BC, their strategic location at the crossroads between Europe and Asia saw them
encounter many of the great ancient powers, including the Hellenistic Empire of
Alexander the Great and the Persians. And while they eventually established an extensive kingdom of their own stretching from
the Mediterranean to the Caspian Seas, they were later caught between the imperial
rivalry of the Romans and the Parthians. This would also extend into the Middle Ages. Although the Armenians became the first nation to
adopt Christianity in 301AD, in the 7th Century, they came under Arab Islamic rule until 885 when a
new independent Armenian kingdom was established. This existed until the middle of the 11th
century when the Byzantine Empire absorbed it. After that, Armenia would come under pressure
from the Seljuk Turks and the Mongols until, in the 16th century, the Ottoman
Empire conquered the Western areas, and the East came under Persian Imperial rule. Although this led to frequent conflicts, the two empires retained control over the
Armenians for the next several hundred years. But by the start of the 19th century, a
new Imperial power was emerging: Russia. Having seized control of Eastern
Armenia from Persia in 1828, it began moving against the Ottoman Empire,
prompting several major Armenian rebellions. This all came to a head
during the First World War. In 1915, and facing another uprising,
the Ottoman leadership ordered the forcible expulsion of up to one
and a half million Armenians from its eastern provinces - a decision that
many now recognise as an act of genocide. But as the First World War ended
and the Ottoman Empire lay in ruins, Armenia seized the opportunity
to declare independence. However, the new country was short lived. In September 1920, communist Russian forces
invaded, creating the Soviet Republic of Armenia. Then, two years later, this was
united with neighbouring Azerbaijan and Georgia to form the Transcaucasian
Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. This in turn lasted until 1936,
when Transcaucasia was dissolved, and Armenia finally emerged as a separate
top-level Soviet Socialist Republic. Although the Soviet Union eventually
collapsed in 1991 and Armenia became an independent sovereign state - joining
the United Nations on 2 March 1992 - it would nevertheless retain close links to Russia. Like most other former Soviet republics, it
joined the new Commonwealth of Independent States. But on top of this, the relationship with
Moscow was also shaped by other crucial factors. As well as maintaining close
economic relations with Russia, Armenia continued to host a Russian military base. But most importantly, the relationship
was shaped by the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway
region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although Russia officially remained neutral and
co-led international efforts to find a solution, many saw it as favouring Armenia, not
least of all by providing it with arms. Moreover, the fact that Armenia had taken
control of large swathes of Azerbaijani territory then led to tensions with
neighbouring NATO-member Turkey, which retained close ties to Azerbaijan
and imposed an embargo on Armenia. Squeezed between Ankara and Baku, this also underscored the need for
Armenia to retain close links to Moscow. This was highlighted in 2002, when
Armenia became a part of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the CSTO,
a military alliance comprising six former Soviet states, including Russia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. But the relationship between Yerevan and Moscow
would become especially significant in 2003. With Russia's ties to the
West deteriorating rapidly, a revolution in neighbouring Georgia
toppled the pro-Russian leadership. And as the new Administration
openly pushed for NATO membership, fears grew that other states could
follow suit, including Armenia. But while Yerevan began to signal that
it wanted closer ties to the European Union - joining the EU's Eastern partnership
in May 2009 - this abruptly ended in 2013. Despite having all but completed negotiations
for a free trade agreement with the EU, Armenia suddenly announced that it had decided to join the
new Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union instead. a And while Armenia subsequently signed a new
Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU in 2017, by this stage it seemed
firmly committed to its relationship with Russia. However, this all began to change in 2018 when the long-standing government in Yerevan was
ousted following widespread protests that brought to power a new reformist
prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan. Although Pashinyan initially stated his
intention to maintain close ties to Russia, repeatedly reassuring the Russian
President Vladimir Putin that he wanted to keep the alliance, suspicions
nevertheless grew on both sides. While Moscow mistrusted the democratic
government in Yerevan, Armenia became increasingly concerned about thawing
relations between Russia and Azerbaijan. This would all come to a head just two years
later when, after almost a quarter of a century, Azerbaijan launched a military
campaign to retake Nagorno-Karabakh. Having invested in building up its
military capabilities on the back of its expanding energy exports, Azerbaijani
forces quickly retook the occupied areas. However, just as they prepared to launch a final
assault on Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia stepped in at the very last moment to broker a ceasefire that
would be overseen by a Russian peacekeeping force. Azerbaijan's victory came as
a massive blow for Armenia. While Nagorno-Karabakh still existed, it
was now under effective Azerbaijani control. More to the point, this led to
widespread resentment against Russia. As well as blaming Moscow for
failing to prevent the war, many Armenians also argued that Russia could
have stepped in earlier to stop the fighting. As a result, relations between Yerevan
and Moscow steadily deteriorated. As well as a growing frostiness between
Pashinyan and Putin, Russia openly criticised the Armenian prime minister -
thereby straining diplomatic relations. Meanwhile, as Moscow built
closer ties to Azerbaijan, Armenia began engaging more openly
with U.S. and European leaders. Moreover, much to Moscow's anger, it also
started to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine. However, the depth to which relations had sunk
was most obviously highlighted in September 2023, when Azerbaijan launched a fresh
attack against Nagorno-Karabakh. This time, Russia made absolutely
no effort to stop the conflict. As Azerbaijani forces took
complete control of the region, its remaining 100,000 or so
inhabitants fled to Armenia. Since then, relations have seemingly collapsed. This was first highlighted when
Armenia ratified its participation in the International Criminal Court -
a moved Moscow condemned given ongoing investigations into alleged
Russian war crimes in Ukraine. And it was against this backdrop that
Pashinyan boycotted the latest CSTO summit. Calling the decision an anti-Russian
move orchestrated by the West, the snub was no doubt felt even
more strongly by Moscow as it came just after Pashinyan wrapped
up a high-profile trip to France. So, does this now mean that Armenia will
break from Russia and move towards the West? While this may seem where things are headed,
the situation isn't quite so straightforward. First of all, while Armenia may
be prepared to abandon the CSTO, switching its allegiance to NATO would be
extremely difficult, if not impossible. While many NATO countries would certainly
be delighted to welcome Armenia, the deep-rooted tensions between
Armenia and Turkey mean that Ankara - and perhaps even Hungary - would
almost certainly block any application. But even if Turkey didn't veto membership, it would almost certainly demand
an unacceptably high price. As well as calling for Armenia to drop genocide
accusations relating to the events of 1915, it could well condition membership on granting
Azerbaijan a land Corridor to Nakhichivan - especially as this would create an unbroken
transport link between Turkey and Central Asia. But if joining NATO is out of the
question, what about EU membership instead? In many ways, this is a more
logical and feasible option. The fact that neighbouring Georgia
has just been recommended for candidacy indicates that the Union is
certainly open to Caucasus expansion. Curiously, however, this just doesn't
seem to be on Armenia's agenda. Notwithstanding Georgia's progress, Armenians just don't see this as a realistic
possibility - for two very different reasons. First of all, it's shaped by a wider
sense that the EU wouldn't want Armenia. Even though there's a solid pro-Armenian lobby
across Europe, and many observers would see it as a natural candidate, most Armenians genuinely
think that it isn't a realistic aspiration. Secondly, there are concerns about the broader
societal implications of joining the EU. Armenia remains a largely conservative country. As one civil society activist noted, joining the EU will require liberalization,
such as greater LGBT rights. Interestingly, these attitudes about EU membership
appear to be encouraged by Russia, which appears to be waging an active disinformation campaign
through its broadcasts into the country. As a result, this combination of reticence and
reluctance is reflected in public opinion polling. Although around half the population
appear to favour EU membership, this is significantly lower than support for
accession in almost any other potential member. But there's also another important
element in the minds of Armenians. The West cannot provide the security they need. As they see it, the real threat
remains Turkey and Azerbaijan. And although Nagorno-Karabakh has been
lost, there are fears that Azerbaijan will now try to seize the country's south -
thus creating a land bridge to Nakhichevan. If Baku does launch an attack,
they simply feel that the West would be unable or unwilling
to prevent this from happening. In their minds, and not withstanding Moscow's
recent failures to stop Azerbaijan from taking Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenians seem to believe
that the only actor that could still prevent this from happening is Russia - especially
as any move to divide Armenia would remove an essential link to neighbouring Iran,
which has emerged as a key Russian ally. Ultimately, and perhaps reflecting
their long history as a nation caught between the rival competing powers of the day, most Armenians believe that they must
simply accept the current situation. While they no longer trust Russia, they
feel that abandoning it altogether and pursuing closer Western ties isn't
an option - at least for now. I hope you found that interesting. If so, please do consider
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