Are We Witnessing the End of the Tories?

this video is brought to you by brilliant we're now roughly 3 weeks into the campaign and well things really haven't gotten any better for the Tories they're still behind in the polls and they're being squeezed on the right from the reform UK party something that has only been made worse by the return of Nigel farage what sunak desperately wanted when he called the election was a tightening in the polls seeing his poll numbers slowly creep up on starers and the electorate beginning to realize that in these difficult Economic Times what they needed was a competent leader who'd already put the Graft in and able to begin lowering taxes unfortunately for sunak this is not the view the elector taken and not only is the poll Gap with labor stayed the same or in some cases widened but some polls are putting reform UK basically level with them so with this in mind it's worth asking how bad actually is it for the Tories what caused this and ultimately could this be the end of the Tory party as we know it before we start if you haven't already please consider subscribing and ringing the bell to stay in the loop and be notified when we release new videos so it's worth starting by explaining exactly how we got to this situation now labor have been ahead in the poll since basically the start of 2022 right after the party Gate scandal properly kicked off as a result of this they maintained a roughly eight-point lead over the Tories while this is impressive things did get quite a bit worse incept September the Johnson government fell apart and Trust took over the result of this was a huge widening in the polls one that saw labor achieve a huge 25-point poll lead over the Tories while this quickly settled back down to a 20-point poll lead this has not really shifted despite Sun's best efforts and while things haven't really shifted in this campaign either part of this is likely down to the difficulty of changing the perception of the party in such a short time period however it's likely also not helped by the frankly terrible campaign sunak has been having he started the campaign announcing the election while being drenched and drowned out by the 1997 new labor campaign Anthem he then had a ton of photo gaffs and even had a day off campaigning when he tried to reset the campaign since then though things have only gotten worse njel farage despite announcing that he'd sit this election out so he could focus on the US election changed his mind and announced that he would run after all in the seaside constituency of Acton however he's also come back as leader of the Reform Party something that has really driven the reform UK vote share up in fact in some polls reform UK are only one or two points behind the Tories at this point sunak surely thought that things couldn't get worse his campaign was floundering and pretty much the worst possible thing to happen to his campaign farage rejoining the race had just happened if this did cross Sun's mind though it would have been premature only a few days later sunak made the the decision to leave the D-Day anniversary commemorations early in order to get back in time for an interview with itv's Paul brand Minister gosh hello good to see you very nice to see you how sorry to have no not at all I know you in Normy yeah it all just ran out there was incredible but it it just ran over everything I'm sure so apologies for keeping you no not at all I'm sure it was a powerful trip I mean although we apologized the very next day for this and asked voters the following week to find in their hearts to forgive him it seems that this issue had really cut through with voters and made his already bad polling situation even worse in some of the first pollings since this incident yugar put the Tories on only 18 points 20 points behind labor the more interesting finding here though is that reform UK and the liberal Democrats are only just behind the Tories on 17 points and 15 points respectively now while we can't say definitively that the D-Day issue is what hurt the Tories and helped reform and the libdems there are at some signs to suggest that this is the case in separate polling from yug give on Tuesday it was found that the second most cited news story that voters said they'd heard about last week was that of sunak leaving the D-Day commemorations early far more than it simply said that they'd heard of the dday commemorations in fact this was significantly higher even than the number of people who claimed that the general election campaign was the story they'd heard most about so now we know just how bad things are going for sunak in the campaign it's worth asking asking what the effect of this is going to be on the Tories well if the recent Yuga voting intention poll is to be believed then the conservatives should start asking themselves existential questions a few weeks before the election campaign we made a video about whether the libdems could actually come second in the upcoming election although it seemed unlikely the fact that polls were suggesting it was possible was a clear demonstration of just how bad the polling was for sunak and that if it kept up they could be in serious Danger a very basic extrapolation of the Yugo poll from earlier would put the libdems ahead of the Tories in terms of seat share making Ed Davy the leader of the opposition now it's worth pointing out that this isn't the most accurate way of predicting seat share as it assumes a uniform swing However the fact that we're seeing things like this in a campaign period demonstrates things really just aren't getting any better even the gold standard MP polls are showing a historic defeat for the conservatives survation carried out an MP poll between the 22nd of May and the 2nd of June and found that labor would end up with 487 seats the Tories would end up with 71 seats and the liberal Democrats would end up with 43 seats while the Tories would still end up as the second largest party this would be one of their worst results ever labor on the other hand would end up with their largest majority ever now the effect of all this bad polling is that the conservatives are just out of ideas about what to do we're now in a situation where high-profile conservatives figures such as swell braan are suggesting that their rival Nigel farage should join the conservatives for his part Faraz is claiming that Tories should join reform so it's possible that we see some movement between reform and the Tories after the election this would certainly not though be a sign of strength rather a demonstration that they're in Survival Mode desperately trying to do whatever is necessary to remain a dominant political force in the UK ultimately then only time will tell how bad the election is for sunak however there is a very real albeit slim possibility that they could drop below the liberal Democrats and become the third party something that would seriously risk ending the Tory party as we know it now 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Channel: TLDR News

Views: 250,882

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Id: 9dHHSzh2XBY

Length: 8min 2sec (482 seconds)

Published: Thu Jun 13 2024