Are Israel and Hezbollah on the verge of a full-blown war? | Inside Story

are Israel and Hezbollah on the verge of full-blown War the two sides are stepping up rhetoric and crossb attacks Israel says plans for an offensive in Lebanon have been approved what would a war look like this time around and does diplomacy stand a chance this is Inside Story [Music] hello and welcome to the program I'm Neeve Barker tensions between the Israeli military and Lebanese armed group Hezbollah are at an all-time high they've been engaged in low-level hostilities for more than eight months the assassination of one of hezbollah's most senior commanders last week however saw an unprecedented response US President Joe Biden sent a special Envoy to the region hoping to diffuse tensions and prevent a wider conflict but has it worked and with no sign the Israeli military is close to ending its war on Gaza in the south is it now on the brink of opening up a second front in the north we'll try to answer those questions shortly with our panel of guests but first this report by Michael Apple for more than 8 months Hezbollah and the Israeli Army have exchanged fire across the Lebanon Border in some cases Israel has launched actual fire the runback armed group says it's conducted more than 2,000 military operations in support of Hamas since October tens of thousands of people on both sides of the Border have been forced to leave their homes bala's increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation his bullah ramped up attacks last week after an Israeli strike killed one of its senior commanders firing its largest volley yet of missiles and attack drones into Northern Israel hoping to avoid a wider conflict US President Joe Biden dispatched special Envoy Amos hin to meet leaders in Lebanon and Israel the situation is serious we have seen an escalation over the last few weeks and what President Biden wants to do is to avoid a further escalation to a greater War but as as Hawkin wrapped up meetings in Beirut Hezbollah released Dr own footage it says shows sensitive military sites deep within Israel analysts say the group's message is clear hezbollah's capabilities continue to expand become more sophisticated and are more able to penetrate through the Israeli defensive systems Israel's response late on Wednesday was an announcement that senior generals had approved operational plans for a ground offensive in Lebanon inflammatory rhetoric is also fueling tensions for victory we need to enter the North and fight Hezbollah and annihilate them the rivals have gone beyond this point before fighting a month-long war in 2006 and now both sides appear to be willing to violate the unwritten Rules of Engagement that govern their low-level hostilities but that will come at a cost the regions a Tinder Box one wrong move by either side could set it all off Mike Apple El jazer for Inside Story okay let's uh bring in our guests from Beirut we're joined by Nicholas no the editorinchief of middle e East wire.com which provides English translations of significant news stories and opinion pieces for media in 22 Arab countries and the Arab diaspora in Durham in the UK is Robert gist pinfold a lecturer in peace and security at Durham University and a senior fellow at The Herzel Center for Israel studies and also in Beirut is mohanad hajali Deputy research director at the Malcolm H ker Carnegie Middle East Center he also authored the 2017 book nationalism transnationalism and political Islam asb's institutional identity a very warm welcome to all three of you thanks for joining us on Inside Story Robert I wonder if I can start with you an Israeli Naval Base an Iron Dome Factory are among the many highly sensitive sites in Northern Israel picked up by this apparent Hezbollah spy drone the findings of that uh drone made very much public by Hezbollah what message do you think the group was trying to send here well this is all about uh deterrence both sides um have kept their bigger weapons in the sheds for the time being neither Israel nor Hezbollah is looking for an escalation here that would lead to an allout war between both parties yes there's been daily exchanges but remember that Hezbollah has anywhere around 150,000 Rockets um that's over 10 times more than the number of rockets that were in the Gaza Strip so this could really degenerate into a regional conf floration uh Israel itself you've had defense minister y Gallant say that any confrontation any War would turn Lebanon back to the Stone Age basically emphasizing that the country would not be able to recover it would be a fatal blow uh to not just to Hezbollah but also to Les Lebanon but this is both sides basically saber rattling in order to uh stop the other from escalating neither Israel nor Hezbollah wants this to become a war but uh we're at this uh trigger point in the moment where all it takes is one miscalculation all it takes is one attack that causes more deaths than intended or or misses the Target and then we may may we very well may find ourselves at that point where tensions escalate so much that war becomes almost unavoidable so Mahan saber rattling says uh Robert uh but with extremely high stakes here one foot wrong could mean that the entire region potentially tumbles into war Israel has announced that a potential attack on Lebanon has been quote approved does that mean a fullscale conflict is now imminent yes I mean we've been we've been hearing lots of these statements in the past months Israel threatening to anihilate um the Lebanese infrastructure what's left of it given the country's years of of Crisis since 2019 uh we've seen the defense minister saying for instance you know look at the images of of Gaza Stripes of Gaza Strip and compare them to Beirut now this is what Beirut will look like so these threats have been ongoing for quite a while now and but what what the US Envoy has been saying recently is that the margin of error of things going wrong has um widened and it's it's more likely now that something wrong might happen outside the calculations of these uh two actors which would lead to a wider confrontation and this is why we're saying um you hisbah send a message the terrorist message to Israel given the political changes and and the lack um lack of ability to speculate what the Israeli next move is given now that it's a more white-winged uh government and Netanyahu is battling different forces and different Visions within his own government including his own uh personal calculations so Nicholas how much do we actually know about hezbollah's military capabilities is it something of a mystery I think what we know publicly is that there they have really shifted the military balance of power over the last 24 years since they ejected the Israelis after 22 years of occupation in South Lebanon uh they have steadily built up capabilities such that we had a really incredible event that you spoke about at the top of the show which is the Drone footage apparently uninter dicted going over some of the most sensitive military sites including the air defense sites uh of Israel really incredible but let's remember this is a group that in 1997 was already hacking into Israeli drones and watching the footage and then were able to kill a dozen or more of the best Israeli Commandos in a raid in 97 they were hacking into drones before the Iraqi groups were doing so they were flying drones over undetected the Israeli Demona nuclear facilities many years ago um in 2006 War Israel and Lebanon or Israel and hasbalah let's say fought to a standstill with devastation especially on the Lebanese side but they already had prevented an Israeli incursion such that the Israeli Army was unable to move more than a few kilometers across the border that was 2006 that was years ago this group has fought significantly in hezb in in Syria in that conflict it's fought now in other areas is training huis is training Iraqi groups Etc so the capabilities it's fairly certain are tremendous I would just say one thing else to to your guest Point who spoke about the the kind of the capabilities are still in the shed I think that that's probably likely true for hasbalah however I think the Israelis really have tried and they've revealed some of their intelligence capabilities in their fairly significant attacks and assassinations of important hasbalah figures um I I would wager given the past history of this conflict that Hezbollah probably has a lot more in the shed to bring out if this does actually expand as compared to Israel and I think actually the Israeli problem right now is that in their own capabilities even air defense they are clearly lacking and and that begs the question whether or not their allies like the US will be absolutely vital if this war expands in the coming period uh Nicholas following on from what we've just uh um heard of course what does it then potentially mean for Israel to be fighting on two fronts the Hezbollah in the north Hamas Islamic Jihad in the South well it's not just two fronts the whole resistance AIS and unity of France is that Israel is going to actually face even more than what it currently is is facing which is several fronts they have a front essentially involved with the houthis and the Red Sea and attempts we think by the huthis to actually directly attack Israel that's true also of Iraqi groups Iraqi militias that may be less true but still somewhat true within Syria and of course Iran also engaged in a reprisal that was you know one of the largest such attacks uh in modern history um and that was only repelled successfully some of us believe because of the tremendous involvement of the United States and Allied Arab nations with the us as well as the clear projecting that the Iranians did that an such an attack was coming so Israel faces problems in Gaza with a very you know let's say a a a less capable fighting force in Hamas which has no strategic depth it's facing a much harder enemy with hasbalah with strategic depth and with a resistance access that evidently is involved in this fight currently and one thinks and I'd be interested to hear what the other guests think on this one thinks that those actors will probably become even more involved if this war really expands that's at least my assumption well putting that to Robert would these actors be more heavily involved well it's impossible to tell really if you know if and and we' like to create this nice binary between kind of War and the current status quo but I suspect we might see um just continuous spirals of escalation those actors are likely to get involved yes if we see an allout War uh but I remember on October the 7th uh there was a genuine fear in Israel that you know this was basically uh the start of Israel's war with Iran uh open war with Iran at least and and that didn't transpire you didn't see um for example Hezbollah actually declare all out war and go to war with Israel so there is still a chance to uh wheel this back at the end of the day Israel's key um I guess the last um thing they can use to basically try and prevent an escalation is the fact that they do have the kinetic power uh to uh damage Lebanon significantly uh and indeed just said it back to the Stone Age as defense minister yoav Gallen argued H and and the strategy there would be not just to Target Hezbollah but to Target the Lebanese State now that's for uh several reasons one because Israel doesn't want a long War it doesn't have the troops it doesn't have the resources for a long War it would also harm Israel's economy the second uh is that hezb are very very hard to get to it's much easier to Target the Lebanese State and the third is that if is Israel feels that if it targets the Lebanese State and does enough damage that will cause an international intervention that will get the uh get both sides to arrive at a ceas fire that's Israel's war aims and that's kind of the last uh trump card they have to try and prevent an escalation I'm not legitimizing it I'm not justifying it but that is Israel's strategy for deterring Hezbollah the question is whether that's going to be tested talking about International intervention with the hopes of a ceasefire enter of course us Envoy Amos hosin notably an Israeli American uh businessman who visited the region looking for a diplomatic way of diffusing current tensions they're also efforts of course as you all know made by France as well Hezbollah has repeatedly said it will not negotiate a truce before a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza uh M hanad I mean how much of a tight spot do you think that that puts the United States and of course Israel yeah I mean this this is exactly the way hisbah designed its intervention it say ASA said in n's own words it say solidarity and um uh support War engagement from hisbah side so you know for them as Israel attacks RAF and as there are more operations there this means they need to escalate and um you know for them this will help this will help um the Hamas and and the whole effort to end the war um according to hamas's terms or support hamas's terms in the negotiations to um end the effort for Hamas uh this has to be an end any any uh exchange of its prisoners uh with um Palestinian Palestinians in Israeli jails has to see the conflict end and you know this is now where it's stoling in in the Gaza Strip and I think pah's pressure on the southern Buddhas is basically designed to help Hamas negotiate um a better end uh for the uh for the conflict and to keep um Hamas from you know being annihilated or you know to help it survive in the in the next phase given that we're reaching um this uh very last strip of Israeli operations in in the Gaza Strip so yes it's sincere for hisbah an end um for the conflict in the Gaza Strip according to Israel's plans which is you know invading RAF continuing the war um indefinitely in the next weeks and months um is is not uh conducive for the organization they understand if Israel finishes um its operations in the Gaza Strip it will turn its turn around and attack hisbah and so this is really the right timing for an escalation according to hizbullah's you know Vision or or how they see um the the conflict moving forward and and you've mentioned that and and your question T NE in the sense that um that you know Israel fighting on two fronts will will not be um you know helpful will not be a uh a vantage point uh for for Israel and its exhausted Army after many months of fighting and I disagree with your your guests in terms of you know Israel launching this war destroying uh what's left of the Lebanese State given that the LI state has been you know on uh losing much of its resources in the past uh yes but you know I think hisbah will enter a very long conflict with the Israelis and it has the capabilities and it has the support and it has the backing and it has Syrian Syria all along lebanon's borders to continue um you know all of that um logistical uh support and backing okay M mad at this juncture in the conversation let's provide some context shall we I wonder if you can give us a brief understanding of Hezbollah because they are not just a military group they are social and political as well yeah I mean the organization is is huge I mean since you know since it's um um uh started in 1980s has grown tremendously now it's it has parliamentary uh representation since the 1990s um it started uh joining the libanese uh government since 2005 um it's it's present in unions it's it's the largest Lebanese political party but at the same time it's a militant organization you know having having its history rooted in in fighting against Israeli occupation but then given the contention uh within Lebanon after the Syrian withdrawal in 2005 you know the the party is at the heart of polarization inside the country between those who want to build the Lebanese state which is capable of taking decisions like peace and War and those who support hisbah and believe the organizations you know anti-imperialism resistance should be at the heart of the Lebanese state so it's a uh it's a it's an organization which is um a very polarizing um um subject in Lebanese politics uh but it's as you said it has many facets it's political it's social and it's also militant with regional links right I I realize that's a very difficult question to ask uh answer briefly but Robert turning to you remind us briefly of the 1982 War when Israel Israel invaded Southern Lebanon obviously very important context for understanding what's going on well it didn't just invade Southern Lebanon it basically stretched all the way up and an occupation what happened in June 196 uh 1982 sorry H is Israel basically intervened in the longgo uh long and ongoing Lebanese Civil War uh the ostensible reason for that was that Israel was facing attacks from Palestinian uh militant groups on its border who were using Southern Lebanon as a launching pad for operations in actual fact what Israel uh wanted to do was to cause regime change within Lebanon to replace the government with a Christian or uh with a Christian government Christian Le government that would then arrive at a peace treaty with Israel and Israel would basically go in um throw its weight around and leave very quickly as is the case with many military operations in Israel and blond military occupations sorry um that didn't work Israel fan itself bogged down stuck in Lebanon trying to support its allies but at the same time feeling that those allies were too weak um if Israel withdrew that they basically wouldn't wouldn't be able to last uh on their own and this actually led to the creation of Hezbollah yes Israel got rid of those Palestinian groups but in the words of Defense Minister yakin Israel's occupation let the Shiite Genie out of the bottle it created significant resentment and resistance to the Israeli occupation and this basically gave Hezbollah the oxygen of legit legitimacy that needed to survive and survive it did and survive and thrive in fact um as was mentioned previously um Israel left Lebanon finally 18 years later in 2000 February 2000 but Hezbollah only went from strength to strength so it was that military occupation that made Hezbollah the um the political and Military entity that it is today all right n Nicholas tell us about uh Hassan nasala why is he as powerful he is as he is the the leader of Hezbollah obviously well I mean on these questions I like to Def defer often times to Muhammad and not Lebanese I I can offer my Outsider perspective from the American point of view and American policy makers I think they view this is someone who has been the head of this party for uh close to 30 plus years 32 years um he has uh evidently deafly managed uh the growth and expansion of this uh Lebanese party with uh an important linkage some say proxy relationship to the Islamic Republic of Iran in an incredibly difficult political environment political and economic environment here in Lebanon as well as having Syria and the Assad Dynasty on one side and Israel uh down on the southern border um hasbalah has uh I think by all accounts thrived and grown into what it is today which is probably one of the most powerful non-state armed actors that we've seen in decades perhaps more um that is an incredible feat when you consider uh the array of threats for me that is a signal failure of great power uh politics of diplomacy of regional deescalation that we are at this point mahad coming back to you Nicholas there mention of course the influence of Iran how much is Iran directly involved you think in calling the shots when it comes to this potential conflict def definitely a strategic uh player I mean it's the leading funer of of most of these organizations and it's um you know it's it's basically a network U which believes in uh the role of the Supreme Leader as you know the the absolute head of of of that network but at the same time it doesn't mean that it's a uh it's kind of a hierarchical relationship in which you know orders are passed down uh the line there's you know there's it's negotiated it's um different opinions arise uh nah himself given his role and his relationship with the supreme leader in Iran has uh a say in in uh in that in that front I think one of the one of the books which was quite interesting in in in that regard was that of hamadani um a an irgc leader who died in uh in Syria and he wrote in his memoirs that um Nala played the leading role in um in basically convincing the Iranian leadership of uh joining the war in Syria so it's a uh I think I think there's a there's a two-way relationship and at the same time you know just to add um a piece of info here which is that hisbah does a lobbying effort uh within Iran has an office in in tan and whenever there's a new president and new government they always make the effort to sell uh the code uh to whoever comes to office so it does does learn from the Israelis quite a bit when it comes to managing their relationship with the United States as well right all of that incredibly valuable context um let's Circle this conversation back to what we're talking about it's the threat of potential full-blown war between Hezbollah uh and Israel Robert what does Victory potentially look like for Israel would it be prepared for instance to implement its dahia Doctrine to destroy civilian infrastructure in Lebanon pressure Hezbollah do they push as far as Beirut as they did in 1982 what are the likely scenarios for Israel well the DEA Doctrine is exactly what is on the table here as I said before Israel's claim that it can and will U go after not just Hezbollah but actually the Lebanese State and the Lebanese State's infrastructure and now I've delineated and discuss the reasons uh for that uh but Israel definitely has the capabilities to do so yes Hezbollah is is um one of the most powerful non-state actors in history nevertheless it's still an asymmetrical conflict Israel is much more powerful than hezb and and significantly much more powerful than the Le Lebanese state in terms of its destructive potential in terms of the weapons that it has at its disposal um so what I think we more likely to see is um less of a grand Invasion simply because Israel doesn't have the numbers anymore Israel's Army has been getting smaller and smaller for the last 15 years uh particularly with the ongoing Gaza War particularly with turmoil in the West Bank Israel's Army is stretched thin as it is which is why I think we're more likely to see Israel rely on that DEA Doctrine basically unleashing air strikes unleashing artillery power trying to destroy and damage the Lebanese State quick enough so that Israel the International Community will force a Seas F and that long Robert very very quickly um throwing to Nicholas because you're shaking your head on this I know that there have been rules to the standoff On the Border in the past I mean what do those militaries military rules very briefly look like and how do we get back to something that resembles a kind of cooler standoff you want Solutions that's the toughest one the rules of the game have looked like what has basically happened till now which is both sides carefully calibrating an escalation over time it's just that since the 2006 War that's always been contained within the rules of the game the essential problem now is that it's harder and harder to see a way out hasbalah has made it clear that they will not cease fire until there's a durable ceasefire in Gaza that seems very unlikely the problem there is additional because even if there is a durable ceasefire in Gaza which is a tall order things have gone so far with the Israelis in this conflict it becomes hard to see how the Israelis can accept the pre-october 7th status quo and the pre-october 7 rules of the game that is the essential problem the third problem is that to your guess point I think we need to be very clear that the idea of Israeli military Victory using its D or Gaza Doctrine or whatever is dangerous fantasy it's not only illegal under International humanitarian law but it's also dangerous fantasy smashing up Lebanon is not going to destroy Hezbollah quite to the contrary it's probably going to strengthen the group as a lot of their natural enemies or opponents actually flee this country and as the infrastructure is even more devastated Nicholas many thanks for that unfortunately we have reached the end of the program some incredibly challenging ground that we've covered some very complicated questions I appreciate all of your efforts in answering them and helping us understand exactly what the future may hold Robert gist pinfold muhamad Haj Ali Nicholas no many thanks to all three of you for joining us in insight story and thank you too for watching you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website al.com and for further discussion go to our Facebook page that's facebook.com/ AJ insid story and you can also join the conversation on X our handle is at AJ insid story from me NE Barker and the whole team here it's bye for now

Channel: Al Jazeera English

Views: 156,161

Keywords: Al Jazeera, Al Jazeera English, Aljazeera, Benjamin Netanyahu, Gaza, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel, Israel Hezbollah clashes, Israel Hezbollah conflict, Israel Hezbollah tensions, Israel Lebanon border tensions, Israel Lebanon cross border fighting, Israel Lebanon cross border fires, Israel Lebanon cross border tensions, Israel War on Gaza, Israel gaza war, Israel-Palestine conflict, Israeli strike in Lebanon, Lebanon, Lebanon Israel border escalation, Lebanon Israel tensions, News

Id: 5017EsGx72E

Length: 28min 30sec (1710 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 19 2024