I wish I went to see the Arctic Ocean.
Icy expanses like from another world. The travel probably costs too much for my tight budget.
But the reason I cannot anymore is because the Arctic Ice could disappear in seven years
from now. This is what a new study warns about in nature. And this comes as a surprise,
the latest IPCC report planned it to happen over a large spread of time. The previous IPCC
report even predicted it to happen around 2080, the earliest. You might think Arctic Ice
disappearing is anecdotal. But actually it might mean we are losing the battle to climate
change. So what is different in this study ? What are the impacts of an ice-free Arctic ? And,
what does it mean for the climate battle ? 2030. This year could be the first one to see
a full ice free September in the Arctic. Why September ? Because this is the end of the
summer the moment the hemisphere reaches its maximum heat accumulation and the moment
when the arctic ice sheets are at their minimum. To be fair the study I present here today gives
a period rather than a date. In the best case scenario this would happen around 2050, but in the
worst it could happen before 2030. It is no secret that the ice sheets already started melting since years. Scientists have been monitoring the ice caps and warning us about their melting
since 1968. The problem is they melt faster than all available simulations. So how is this study
different you might say. First it calculates the real sea ice area using satellite images from 1979
to 2019. This drastically reduces the observed uncertainty the previous studies had. In the past,
scientists also use satellite images, but they split them into a grid using a threshold of 15 %
to define whether a grid cell contains ice or not. Second, this study simulates greenhouse gases
impact on sea ice for all months of the year. This accounts for the gradual melting when
majority of other studies focused on September alone. With these data the scientists
can now compare the projections with the SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios
from the IPCC. And no matter how much we reduce our emissions, the summer ice sheets in the
Arctic could disappear between 2030 and 2050. Now I know some of you might just
be wondering : Why would ice caps melting be a bad news for the climate change
? And, who is this weird accent guy speaking ? well both are fair and important questions.
To answer both we first need to understand another Concept in climatology the Tipping Points.
Nature is composed of many balanced ecosystems. Some of these balances are Global and
some others Regional. All living organisms are part of these ecosystems adapted to their
surroundings. Any radical changes to these balances require adaptation whether
to survive temperatures increase food supply change or any other disruptions.
Earth and life exist since billions of years. During all this time, these changes forced
adaptation via DNA mutations or in other words, Natural Evolution. A change in climate does not
mean Earth will die, ecosystems will find New Balances, whether favorable for existing living
creatures or not if those changes are too harsh, too abrupt, massive extinctions will
occur, only the fittest survive. Of course as humans we are different than other
living organisms. We are the only known species capable to willingly shape its environment. And
the scale of our footprint is gigantic, whether to serve beliefs or fulfill greed, satisfaction, and
energy desires. But the question is: will we be able to shape ecosystems with what is happening.
In the 2021 report, the IPCC defined a Tipping Point as a critical threshold Beyond which
a system reorganizes often abruptly and or irreversibly. But even if this term defines a
change that can be, sudden, it should not be seen as something happening overnight. It is rather a
profound change taking years. And sometimes these changes start happening in a sneaky way long
before we discover them or understand them. So far the scientists identified multiple tipping
elements. You probably heard about the dying low latitude coral reefs, and the mountain glacier's
loss. Those are the regional ones. But there is another type of tipping elements: the core Global
ones and their impact is on the entire planet. Antarctica and Greenland are covered with
kilometers thick ice sheets. The scientists estimate their melting will happen
around 1.5° increase in Greenland, and depending on the regions, between 1.5
and 7.5° for Antarctica. This melting will add millions of tons of fresh water to the ocean
Rising its level by more than 60 meters in total, causing massive extinctions in marine life, and
more importantly, causing a temperature runaway, by disrupting Plankton CO2 absorption. Ocean
currents are other Global core tipping element. For example in the Atlantic Meridional
Overturning Circulation or AMOC, convection between cold and warm water warms
up the American and European coasts while tempering low latitude once. The scientists
estimate their Tipping Point at 4° increase. The fresh water could slow or block these currents
as fresh water remains atop The Salty one. And by the way there are evidences now that the AMOC
already started weakening. Equatorial rainforests, another tipping element, are one of the most
important carbon sinks in the planet. It is expected to reach a point of no return around 3.5°
increase, if deforestation does not destroy it before of course. And there is still one important
global tipping element which we will see later. Arctic summer sea ice itself is not a
tipping element. But the winter one is. Its tipping point was estimated around
6.3°. This study now says that even at 1.8° the scenario where we drastically reduce
our emissions, the Arctic sea ice will start disappearing soon. It was also interesting
to notice that the whole paper does not even mention the 1.5° scenario anymore. Without
making any assumptions here, temperatures are already at 1.15° and multiple scientists already
called the community for stating the obvious. In any case if these tipping
elements cross the point of no return they can totally change the face of the
Earth. So how will that impact us humans. So far only icebreakers were able to navigate
the Arctic Ocean, only in certain areas and only during certain months of the year.
Obviously, strip the ice from it, and the ocean will become navigable, even for Less equipped
commercial ships. On one hand this could have a positive effect. Shipping routes will be shorter
reducing emissions by the same. But on the other hand this is additional risks for the ecosystems
there. Oil leaks, accidents, and adrift containers could increase in a place where cleaning and
rescue will continue to be harsh. The other effect here will be the change in geopolitical balances,
especially since the recent events we all know. From the perspective of climate this could be
very bad. In some areas Arctic Ocean exceeds five kilometers in depth. Strip the ice from it, and it
will have much lesser Albedo. The more sunlight it will absorb the warmer it will get. And this can
start a domino effect on the surrounding areas. First North America Europe and Asia
will lose one of their main stabilizers, meaning more extreme weather events. Remember
wildfires, summer heat domes and winter cold snaps ? Well, prepare to see more !
And obviously the second impact will be more ice melting. Although the speed
will probably depend on our emissions. Ice melting will add more fresh water in the
ocean. This alone could trigger the ocean current tipping points and disrupt the Plankton CO2 sinks.
Of course not to mention sea level rise to which Greenland alone would add an additional 7 meters.
And even if the full melting could take centuries we could start seeing the first impacts in
the next few decades or so. But probably the biggest impact from Arctic Ocean warming could be
linked to the tipping element I kept for the end. Around the Arctic Ocean there is a frozen soil
in Canada Europe and Russia, the permafrost. It already started melting, creating lakes and
collapsing on its own weight. The problem is, as it melts, it releases carbon trapped since
millennia. The scientists estimate permafrost melting will release twice as much carbon to
the atmosphere than it (atmosphere) currently contains. And this is not only CO2
but also methane, which as a reminder, has up to 30 times more greenhouse effect.
If you want to know more about this phenomenon, watch this video next about permafrost
having probably triggered the temperature runaway 56 million years ago.
Time is running out but there is still hope. So to answer the remaining questions: Why the
arctic ice melting might mean we are losing the climate battle ? Well because the next step could
be permafrost melting and a temperature Runaway. Oh by the way, My name is KHALID and
I talk about interesting science.
