VENTHAL. YOU KNOW WHAT WE'RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT THING GOING ON TODAY ALL RIGHT, JOE, WOLF, ON NVIDIA, RARELY HAS THERE BEEN A SINGLE STOCK WITH SUCH IMPORTANCE AS LONG AS IT TOPS EXPECTATIONS, THEY SAY, NVIDIA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A KEY TAIL WIND FOR THE OVERALL U.S. STOCK MARKET. THEY'RE GOING TO LIVE UP TO THE HYPE. >> DO WE REALLY THINK THAT ONE QUARTERLY REPORT, EVEN IF THEY MISS IS GOING TO MOTIVATE INVESTORS TO REMOVE THIS COMPANY AS A CORE HOLDING AND A PORTFOLIO? >> NO. >> THIS IS THE ANCHOR. >> NO ONE IS GOING TO SAY YOU'RE GOING TO SELL IT I DON'T BUY THAT ONEBIT. >> ABSOLUTELY. >> I DO THINK, THOUGH, IF THEY MISS, THIS STOCK COULD GO DOWN A LOT AND THE NASDAQ COULD GO DOWN 2% >> SO THEY GET THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT IF IT GOES DOWN. YES, THE STOCK MARKET WILL GO DOWN IF THERE'S A MISS THE BEAR ARGUMENT IS SIMPLE. FORGET THAT THEY HAVE TO BEAT. THEY HAVE TO BEAT BY HOW MUCH? THEY HAVE TO BEAT BY AN EXORBITANT AMOUNT. FUNDAMENTALLY, THE BLACKWELL CHIP IS COMING OUT LATER IN THE Y YEAR YOU'VE GOT CUSTOMERS THAT ARE GOING TO HOLD BACK ON SPENDING IN ANTICIPATION OF BLACKWELL THE PROBLEM IS TWO-FOLD, AND THE REASON WHY I ACTUALLY THINK TONIGHT I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE STOCK UP 5 TO 10%, FROM A PERSPECTIVE OF POSITIONING, APRIL 19th, STOCK GOES DOWN 10%, ON WHAT, THE EXPECTATION THAT CHIP DEMAND IS WEAKENING. WHAT HAPPENED SUBSEQUENT TO THAT ALL OF THE BIG TECHNOLOGY, EXCUSE ME, BIG TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES REPORT THEY REPORT AND TELL YOU WHAT, WE'RE GOING TO BE SPENDING MONEY. META, ALPHABET, AMAZON, ALL COMING OUT, WE'RE SPENDING A TON OF MONEY, STOCK RALLIES. THEY ARE CUTTING BACK POSITIONS IN NVIDIA AND OTHER BEG MEGA CAP COMPANIES, AND THE OPTION MARKET IS TELLING YOU IT'S SKEWED TOWARD THE PUT SIDE. I ACTUALLY THINK POSITIONING IS SET UP THE RIGHT AWAY WHERE THIS STOCK CONTINUES TO MOVE HIGHER AND GOES ABOVE A THOUSAND TONIGHT. >> JASON SNIPE, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE OPTIONS MARKET IMPLYING A PLUS OR MINUS 8% MOVE, PLUS OR MINUS, $186 BILLION WORTH OF MARKET CAP. N NVIDIA REPRESENTS 6 1/2% OF THE NASDAQ 100 IN CASE YOU'RE SCORING AT HOME AS TO WHY THE STOCK HOLDS SO MUCH IMPORTANCE. >> 100%. AND LAST QUARTER OPTIONS MARKET IMPLIED A 13% MOVE EITHER WAY. I THINK THE VOLATILITY HAS COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT. I THINK WHAT'S IMPORTANT TO ME IS SOMETHING JOE ALLUDED TO IN TERMS OF THE PERFORMANCE AND PRICE ACTION YOU KNOW, THE REVENUE GUIDE WAS 24 BILLION FOR THIS QUARTER. I THINK THE WHISPER NUMBER IS AROUND 26. SO, YOU KNOW, IF THEY HIT THAT OR EVEN COME CLOSE TO THAT, I THINK IT'S A BLOWOUT OBVIOUSLY, AND I THINK THAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN YOU KNOW, THE OTHER THING IS I THINK ABOUT THE AI RACE, AND FOLKS HOLDING BACK ON THE BLACKWELL CHIP THAT'S GOING TO BE PRODUCED LATER ON THIS YEAR YOU KNOW, WHEN I THINK ABOUT THE AI RACE, I DON'T THINK THEY WILL HOLD BACK ON SPENDING. EVEN THOUGH IT'S NOT THE MOST SOPHISTICATED CHIP THE MORE SOPHISTICATED ONE IS COMING OUT LATER THIS YEAR I DON'T THINK THAT HOLDS BACK ANYTHING, AND I THINK THAT WE'LL SEE AN EXPLOSIVE QUARTER THIS Y YEAR. >> EARNINGS YEAR OVER YEAR EXPECTED TO BE UP 410% REVENUE EXPECTED TO BE UP 241% JUST GIVES YOU AN IDEA OF WHY THIS STOCK IS WHERE IT IS. >> IT CERTAINLY DOES I MEAN, IT'S PRETTY INCREDIBLE I THINK I MENTIONED THIS TO YOU YESTERDAY, SCOTT THE EARNINGS ESTIMATES ARE 230% HIGHER THAN THEY WERE ONE YEAR AGO. THEY'RE 20% HIGHER THAN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. NOW, I THINK THEY WILL BEAT THE EARNINGS SETTLEMENTS I THINK THEY WILL RAISE GUIDANCE, AND MY COMMENT RHETORICALLY ASKS THIS, DOES ANYONE DISAGREE WITH THAT? IN THE WORLD, I'M STRUGGLING TO FIND A PERSON WHO SAYS NO, THEY'RE GOING TO MISS. I HEARD YOUR COMMENTS WONDERFULLY MADE ABOUT WHAT HEDGE FUNDS HAVE DONE, AND PUT BUYERS HAVE DONE I THINK WHAT THEY'RE SAYING IS PROBABLY WHAT I'M SAYING WHICH IS THAT EVERYBODY WEXPECTS A BEATEN RACE. THIS WOULD HAVE TO BE ONE HECK OF A QUARTER TO BEAT LOFTY EXPECTATIONS THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE, ME INCLUDED SAYING IT'S PROBABLY PRICED IN. I'M A HOLDER OF THE SHARES, ABOUT A 2% POSITION. I EXPECT IN THE FULLNESS OF TIME, I WILL PROBABLY DOUBLE THAT I'M NOT BUYING IT TODAY. THAT'S MY COMMENT. >> IT'S INTERESTING. WHEN PEOPLE SAY IT'S ALREADY PRICED IN, IT'S NOT ALREADY PRICED IN. AND THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF PEOPLE, LOGICALLY WHEN YOU LOOK AT NVIDIA, YOU SAY, YEAH, IT'S PRICED IN ALREADY. THIS COMPANY, YOU CAN NOT BET AGAINST IT FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF HOLDING A POSITION. >> I'M NOT BETTING AGAINST IT. I DO HOLD A POSITION I HEAR YOU YOU'RE RIGHT, THAT HAS BEEN THE HISTORY FOR SEVERAL QUARTERS YOU AGREE AT SOME POINT, THAT WON'T BE THE CASE. >> THAT'S FAIR >> YOU THINK IF THEY HIT THE BALL OUT OF THE PARK FROM A GUIDANCE STANDPOINT, IT'S ALREADY PRICED IN. >> I DON'T THINK THAT'S CONTROVERSIAL. YES, THAT IS WHAT I'M SAYING IT MIGHT BE WRONG. I'M NOT SITTING HERE SAYING. BY NO MEANS, SETTLE THE STOCK, FOR GOODNESS SAKES IF IT GOES DOWN, I'LL BUY MORE. >> I DON'T UNDERSTAND WHY YOU GO WITH THE SELL THE STOCK THING. NO ONE IS SUGGESTING IF THEY MISS, YOU'RE GOING TO SELL THE STOCK. THAT DOESN'T MEAN THE STOCK, IS NOT GOING TO GO DOWN WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE, EITHER THEY BEAT OR YOU STAY IN THE STOCK, YOU MISS, YOU SELL THE STOCK. NO ONE IS SUGGESTING THAT. WHO'S THINKING ABOUT SELLING THE STOCK? >> I MAY HAVE BEEN MISREADING WHAT YOU WERE SAYING, WHAT YOU WERE ASKING. MY POINT IS I'M UNDER WEIGHT THIS STOCK, TO WHERE I WANT TO BE, TO WHERE I THINK I WILL BE I'M NOT BUYING IT HERE AT $947 A SHARE. THAT IMPLIES, I THINK I WILL GET A LOWER PRICE TO BUY IT. I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT SELLING. THAT'S NOT IN THE CARDSM BUT WHAT I AM SAYING, AND AGAIN, COULD VERY WELL BE WRONG IS THAT THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THIS STOCK ARE INCREDIBLY LOFTY >> WHICH IS WHY WE ASK KRISTINA PARTSINEVELOS TO COME HERE TO POST NINE TO TELL US IF THEY CAN LIVE UP TO THE HYPE. I MEAN, YOU KNOW THE STORY TELL US ABOUT IT ALL THE TIME. EXPECTATIONS KEEP GOING HIGHER CEO'S A ROCK STAR, RIGHT EVERYBODY SEEMS TO THINK LIKE THE COMMERCIAL, YOU'RE NOT A ROCK STAR. THIS SGUY IS A ROCK STAR. >> HE TALKED ABOUT FILLING UP A STADIUM. ALL OF THESE CELEBS GOING TO SEE HIM. I HAVE POINT S FOR ALL OF YOU GUYS 50% OF DATA CENTER REVENUE LAST QUARTER CAME FROM CLOUD HYPER SALER. TESLA IS KNOWN TOBECOME A BIGGER CUSTOMER THE PAST QUARTER. THAT SHOULD HELP DRIVE IT. AMD, THEY RELEASED THEIR EARNINGS FIRST, THEY DID RAISE THEIR AI REVENUE GUIDANCE TO 4 BILLION. SO THAT IS A GOOD BAROMETER FOR NVIDIA, YOU KNOW, FOR THE STRENGTH GOING INTO THAT AND THEN THIS ONE IS NOT MENTIONED TOO OFTEN. THERE'S A HIGH CORRELATION BETWEEN TAIWANESE CHIP EXPORTS AND NVIDIA SALES EXPORTS, RECENT REPORTS SHOWED SOME STRONG STRENGTH, AND SO THAT'S, YOU KNOW, ANOTHER REASON TO YOUR QUESTION, SCOTT, WHY WE SEE A DRIVER I WANT TO HIGHLIGHT RISK YOU TALKED ABOUT DEMAND BEING PRICED IN. YOU HAVE CHALLENGED THAT I THINK ESTIMATES HAVE COME UP QUITE A BIT LEADING INTO THIS. MAYBE NOT NECESSARILY YOUR GUIDANCE QUESTION, BUT THAT DOES MEAN, IF YOU'RE SAYING IT'S NOT PRICED IN, YOU'RE NOT BELIEVING THE HYPE THEEORY, RIGHT >> THE OTHER TIMES OVER THE LAST 18 MONTHS, IF YOU THOUGHT ALL OF THE AI NEWS WAS PRICED IN, OTHER THAN PERIODS OF PULLBACK, YOU'RE WRONG. >> YOU SAID BLOWOUT QUARTER, AND THEN THERE WAS QUITE A PULLBACK, AND HAD AN OUTSIZED NEGATIVE EFFECT ON THE MARKETS IN THE SUMMER OF LAST YEAR. >> THAT'S WHY WE SUGGEST THAT IT HOLD SO MUCH IMPORTANCE TONIGHT. >> YOU MENTIONED THE STACKS AND THE IMPACT ON THE GROWTH RATE OF THE S&P 500. I THINK THE KEY THING FOR NVIDIA AND WHY EVERYONE WATCHING SHOULD REALLY CARE AND NOT BECAUSE YOU NECESSARILY OWN IT OR IT'S IN YOUR FUND THAT YOU HAVE, BUT BECAUSE THE EARNINGS POTENTIAL FOR NVIDIA, IT'S CLIMBED DRAMATICALLY COMPARED TO OTHER NAMES. THAT WEIGHS A LOT WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THIS COMPANY AND ITS IMPACT ON MARKETS. YOU TALKED ABOUT APRIL, DIDN'T THE FED, COMMENTS ABOUT THE FED, AND YOU SAW TECH ALL ACROSS THE BOARD, YOU KNOW, POSSIBLY NO CUTS IN THAT WHOLE DEBATE. THAT PLAYED A ROLE IN NVIDIA SHARES AS WELL. >> THAT'S HEALTHY. >> OF COURSE ANY PULL BACK. >> YOU HAD THE 10% POSITIONING CORRECTION ALREADY, AND I THINK THAT'S A POINT OF EMPHASIS AS YOU LOOK FORWARD, WHERE THE POSITIONING IS NOT AS SPECULATIVELY LONG AS WE THOUGHT. BUT I GUESS THE QUESTION FOR TONIGHT REALLY COMES DOWN TO IS THE AI TREND AND THE THESIS SURROUNDING AI STILL, YOU KNOW, LEVITATING STILL SUPPORTED I LOOK AT THE RECOVERY THAT WE'VE HAD IN THIS MONTH, AND IT'S ALL ABOUT CORPORATE EARNINGS, AND ITS CORPORATE EARNINGS GROWTH FROM THE TECHNOLOGY COMPANIES
