ah crap... this could be why the market tanked

oh fed might give us a good old rugging tomorrow let's see how they shape the minutes and let's talk preview in terms of not only what we're expecting with data tomorrow big deal T actually today's Tuesday January 2nd January 3rd which is a Wednesday is the day we get our fomc minutes and we get our jolts data let's get through what we're paying attention to uh first I think what's going to be very important in the minutes just straight to the bottom line here is some versus several okay quotes around some versus several members discussing the potential for overtightening or rate Cuts in my opinion that's going to be the biggest thing that I'm looking for in the minutes I already know all the old crap de it depending if inflation goes back up we'll do this if things get worse we'll do this I want to know why uh or really first how many people ideally we figured that out talked about rate Cuts because if they say one person brought up rate Cuts that's lame if they don't even mention rate Cuts possible also kind of lame it depends see the minutes can be shaped by the FED after the fact notice minutes do not equal transcript they're actually another messaging tool so what we're getting is really a catered and edited version of the minuts they're what they want us to feel and react with so we don't don't get everything they're talking about so if they don't include anything about rate Cuts or even the mention of cuts then they're really trying to walk back the fact that jome pow told us some of the members in their commentary suggested there could be raid Cuts in 2024 okay we don't want to see them walk that back we want to see them reiterate that ideally they say something like several members discuss the potential of overtightening or Cuts uh but I'll take I'll settle for some okay that's number one number two I'd like to know why why what are they seeing are they seeing a recession Brewing well much like we do with course members every single day I am looking for evidence of a recession one of the things that we decided to do this morning just to give you a quick little sample of our course member live streams uh mostly just because we're still processing Gold Course emails this is nuts okay it is nuts how many emails we're getting at staff ATM kevin.com asking for coupons into the gold course with the brand new content we made uh here in Q4 uh well I guess Q4 was actually last year already how weird is that but a few weeks ago anyway look at this okay we found this this morning oh I clicked the wrong button we found this this morning check this out this is from paychecks the paychecks earnings call our small business employment watch continues to show moderation in both jobs growth and wage inflation which is indicative of a stable macro environment and that the actions of the FED are having their desired impact Jerome Powell reads this stuff okay him and his office they interview companies like this payroll companies and this is what they're saying they're like hey it's it's working okay okay okay you you done enough then they say well we haven't seen any normal signs of our of recession in our data no recession in the data but then again we know jobs data can lag so we're trying to get sentiments right they say we started to see some softening in seasonal hiring in the quarter particularly in the large client segments including our HR Outsourcing many of which typically add seasonal employees this time of year uhoh bing bing bing bing bing bing bing alarm Bells going off over here this is how jobs weakness begins I suspect the federal reserve's minutes are going to start warning that we are heading towards jobs weakness the problem with jobs and and I I have been saying this for uh quite frankly what feels like roughly 2 years now I've been saying look jobs data lags but there are leading signs the leading signs are just not that easy and clear to see this is one of them weakness in seasonal hiring to the point where paychecks a payroll processor is saying yeah we're seeing HR companies not do their usual usual seasonal hiring because there's just much less of a need for those workers that is a red flag not only that but they also mention over here they suggest we're not seeing anything on our data that would say mass downsizings or reduction that's not what we're seeing you are seeing right sizing yes that's normal in an economically tightening environment it is normal to see quote right sizing when would you actually see Mass layoffs well you would see Mass layoffs when you're in the recession so but we already know we're not in the recession we're worried about going into the recession and so that cut in seasonal hiring is going to be an example of something that the Federal Reserve is going to look at and go yeah yeah we we we need to be careful about this so that's what I'm looking for in the minutes now we also have to talk jolts that's pretty important as well okay and and and yes I'm going to go to the podcast after this video posts you might be watching this and we might be live in the podcast or the podcast may have just posted you're welcome to come join us over there the meet Kevin podcast it's link down below uh still haven't had a chance to change the pricing on the gold course I did go fly today uh to visit some of our projects that we've got going on and make sure that I'm leading and educating the team in every way I can for house Haack but let's focus on jolts right here and of course we want the FED to focus on this we want the FED to be aware which I think they are that they kind of won on inflation they're not going to say that because if they say that they could actually reintroduce that sort of inflationary problem right but look at that multivariant core remember how I was talking about a couple weeks to go hey we're going to have a little bit of a delay because of the holidays and getting that multivariant core inflation out this morning in the market open live stream what do we do we went through the decm uh the decm of that multivariant core and what did we see well take a look at it take out everything except Services X housing come on man we're we're so low we're at. 17% consider that from for moment. 17% * 12 to annualize it we're literally at 2.04% inflation annualized so that's literally taking that number right here and multiplying by 12 the November 20 that's not even December you know the December CPI numbers for example are coming out next week and multivariant core is based on pce so you're going to get this data late uh but anyway that number right there annualized time 12 is 2.04% so let's be real the inflation part is basically done where we sit now is did we screw up the jobs Market to get here and we don't know that until hindsight the only way we don't go into a recession is if we prevent massive damage to the jobs Market remember how this earnings call right here says we are not seeing mass downsizings or reductions that's because that doesn't happen going into a recession that happens when you're like Leman Brothers hits the fan goes BK bunch of companies go BK and all of a sudden everybody's like oh God everything's hit in the fan fire everyone you do not want to go there really bad really bad fortunately in my companies we're hiring uh we're we've by the way check your email we've already been responding to some emails uh of folks who have hit us up for a software engineering job I posted about that on Twitter you could see some details over there including the $250,000 pay offer as well as some of the other details uh but just email us your resume at jobs mein.com it is an in-person position for full stack Dev uh and more for uh fintech but anyway uh so this is really interesting this is massively interesting but not only is this massively interesting jolts numbers jolts numbers come out at uh 7: a.m. tomorrow morning so I will be live on the market open Live channel to cover that the jolts numbers are expected to come in at 8.82 one million that's actually slightly warmer than the 8.73 3 I think that number could come in soft again I just pray we don't get a number under like eight because if we get a number under eight people are going to be like oh my God we might actually be walking into a recession way sooner than we thought because that's going to quickly get to like 6 and then we're one to one and then it's going to go down to four and and then all of a sudden we have more people looking for work than we have job openings I I I don't know I hope not I pray not that would be bad if you're short you want that number to come in way low now you don't really want the number to come in really hot either though like you don't want this to go back to 9.5 million because that could lead the FED to wonder okay does this mean we have to keep rates higher for longer it goes back to higher for longer so we'll get jolts at 7: a.m. then we're going to get the fomc's minutes at 11 a.m. so 700 a.m. for jolts uh 11:00 a.m. for fomc minutes these are all California times and we'll also get ISM Institute for supply side management prices paid we'll get those at 7:00 a.m. as well looking for a 49.5 on those which is slightly in contraction when we're under 50 we're slightly in contraction manuf ring is expecting to come in for the 14th month in a row low under 50 47.1 we'll see if that ends up coming in a low as well uh so we'll pay attention to this ADP is the next day looking for 121 on that uh and then of course we'll get non-farm payrolls on Friday I'll be covering all of this live uh of 170,000 is the expectation I'm worried that these numbers are going to come in soft and as much as I worry about those numbers coming in soft I am also heavily focused on those minutes because I want to see a Fed not the usual crap I want to see a Fed that is aware about the damage they could cause in employment because that will make what is been a resilient economy very fragile that's what kills the economy is people losing their jobs you ever wonder why and we've touched on this before but I really want you to think about this you know I teach real estate okay we got the zero to millionaire real estate course is phenomenal you ever wonder why housing is so expensive in certain areas huh well it has to do with jobs where are theob jobs and people's willingness to live in an area because they're getting paid and compensated to live in that area but not only that I want you to consider this okay when it comes to single family home Investments look at this Bank of America ran a piece right here and we posted this on ehck so you could see all this research for free on ec.com but look at this ec.com what did we post Bank of America say that Millennials are past Peak apartment renting age and the demographic bulge is shifting towards single family renting in suburban and spacious lifestyle environments that single family dwellings offer and that most of the limited Supply is not in apartment buildings but rather in single family homes which I obviously wrote over here H this is frankly uh bullish for house hack see our latest house hack videos here but anyway look at this research study this on eack there's some really good stuff on eack by the way I talked about oil today uh talked a little bit about uh how weird it was that oil dropped also talked Bank term funding program this is a big deal as well so you can get a preview of some of the items here uh but look let's just be very clear the jobs jobs jobs is what this is all about and with inflation basically at 2% Services X housing I don't know how you can possibly argue that the FED should not be prioritizing jobs which means rate Cuts baby let's get a bullish fed tomorrow or should I call it a doish Fed anyway thanks so much for watching got a coffee to drink and a podcast to get to we'll see you the next one bye why not advertise these things that you told us here I feel like nobody else knows about this we we'll try a little advertising and see how it Go congratulations man you have done so much people love you people look up to you Kevin P there financial analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get your take even though I'm a licensed financial adviser real estate broker and becoming a stock broker this video is neither personalized Financial advice nor real estate advice for you it is not tax legal or otherwise personalized advice tailored to you this is video provides generalized perspective information and commentary any thirdparty content I show should not be deemed endorsed by me this video is not and shall never be deemed reasonably sufficient information for the purpose of evaluating a security or investment decision any links or promoted products are either paid affiliations or products or Services which we may benefit from I personally operate and actively managed ETF and hold long positions in various Securities potentially including those mentioned in this video however I have no relationship to any issuers other than house act nor am I presently acting as a market maker okay

Channel: Meet Kevin

Views: 56,061

Keywords: investing, stocks, stock market, real estate, money, making money, passive income, wealth, starting to invest, meet kevin, house hack, househack, j bravo, graham stephan, reventure consulting, bottom line report, blr, bottom line, caleb hammer, calebhammer, caleb hamer

Id: Pwt7Kt1ztEs

Length: 13min 5sec (785 seconds)

Published: Wed Jan 03 2024