After the Wagner mutiny, what's next for Russia and Ukraine?

we do these calls on occasion when something important has happened and we want to give you a quick briefing on what has happened when I had a com I had a conversation on Saturday with our Executive Vice chair former National Security adviser Steve Hadley and at the time we decided Steve to do this call we didn't know where it was going to end we certainly didn't think that that it would end in quite the way it did though we didn't know and I'm not sure it's really ended we'll get into all those questions but we've done a call like this with Steve and Madeleine Albright in in the aftermath of the January 6 attack on the capitol with Michael Morrell Milan Revere and Steve after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan this past summer and we've done it other times as well I've talked to the speakers we have today and they've all uh agreed that the material that they share with us today can be on the record we don't have any journalists on the call but if you'd like to use it you can we'll use Clips later on as well also for those who will ask questions later that will potentially be on the record as well just so everybody understands that um we call what we're doing right now relevance speed our team over the weekend uh looked at all aspects of this from the information space to what was going on potentially in Africa um uh to of course what was going on on the ground with uh President Putin and and pregosian um the crisis seems to be diffused by now but there's so many unanswered questions that Romanian will try to dig as deep into those with people who are true experts in the field so Steve Hadley will kick us off former National Security advisor and chairman of our International Advisory Board as well Executive Vice chair of the council's board uh John herbs he's senior director of the Europe Eurasia Center former Ambassador Ukraine I was just with him uh with our chairman John Rogers in Kiev talking to president zielinski and he'll do a situation report for us Kersey calculate a former president of Estonia and member of our International Advisory Board will discuss the regional Dynamics and how this will impact the discussion at the upcoming NATO Summit in Vilnius in July and then we have General Wesley Clark and general Curtis Capriati two former NATO Supreme Allied commanders uh and members of our Board and they'll share their thoughts uh from a military perspective and they've remained incredibly active uh on all of these areas and then my favorite uh analyst on things Russian Angela stent uh senior advisor the center for Eurasian Russian and East European studies at Georgetown University she's written a lot about Putin she understands the Dynamics on the ground and she'll talk to us about how this will reverberate inside and outside Russia uh we'll try to go through these initial speakers relatively quickly but giving them a chance to go into some depth as well and then I'll watch for your questions uh I've got a screen in front of here I'm not sure it's as good as my screen in my office of seeing questions in the chat so what I may do is is look for hands up for people who want to ask their questions that's maybe it's going to be an easier way to do this so let me start with st with Steve and Steve I wonder you know one of the Great Pleasures I have in my job is having partners Like You on the board who have in times of Crisis talk to presidents of the United States and told them exactly how they should think about a situation that's unfolding and obviously how we respond to this is one of the most important questions but knowing how to respond first of all it has to be led by what's going on and so I'd love to hear a little bit about how you've been working this through your head over the weekend and were you briefing the president of the United States right now how might you do that those of you who have joined this morning this is a work in progress a lot of uncertainty we're through act one we don't know whether this is a one-act play or a five-act play we don't really know the terms of this settlement that has been worked out with progression with Putin's blessing we don't know whether it will be complied with but even if it turns out to be act one of a one-act play this has been an earthquake within the Russian political system and it's going to take a while for its effects to be clear as uh over time as it plays out over time so in light of that one of the things you would the president would say would be well what are our objectives here and I think our objectives in this situation are twofold one to continue to try to get Russia out of you Russian forces out of Ukraine and to assure that Ukraine's sovereignty integrity and viability is a secure and prosperous state is maintained and the second objective I think is we do not want to encourage a Russian Civil War the consequences of that for regional instability for Refugee flows into our allies from unquestions about who controls the nuclear weapons these are troubling questions that we'd like to avoid so those would be the objectives second question well what do you say about this publicly because the administration is going to have to talk about it publicly and I think the statements made over the weekend are pretty close to right watching the situation internal manage matter to be resolved among the Russians themselves but I think we should emphasize that it's further evidence that the Putin's invasion of Ukraine was a strategic mistake for Russia that Russia troops should leave Ukraine whether they're withdrawn or whether it's 1917 style they put down their arms and they decide to walk home and because Russia should clearly has to attend a lot of internal affairs that's clear from what we've seen over the week what to watch for going forward the president would ask well Putin has clearly been weakened by this pagosian's forces got within something like 150 miles of Moscow they received tacit support I would have to say or at least not active opposition from the Russian Security Forces that's a problem for Putin internally and I would expect you're going to see some purges of his Security Services and further crack down internally his problem is whether he can pull it off it's a little bit like kids playing with mud pies sometimes you know the tighter you squeeze the more mud squeezes out between your fingers we'll have to see how Putin does I think the other thing for Putin is he's going to have to try to frustrate the Ukrainian counter-offensive because the more ukrainians are able to take back territory from Russia forces the more Putin looks weak and the more the Ukrainian War looks like as pregosian has been saying a strategic magic mistake for Russia there's a question about progosian he's got to stay alive he's been called traitor by Putin people are called traitor by Putin don't usually have a very long life expectancy he's got to decide whether this is over or whether he this is act one of his effort to confront the minister of defense shoigu and gross him off the head of Russian chief of the Russian general staff and whether he wants to continue this campaign or not and if so how he would do it there's a question about the future of the Wagner group they're supposed to be either demobilized or brought within the Russian mod will they do that will they continue to be a force if not in Ukraine what about their continued presence in Africa a lot of uncertainties there questions for Ukraine this is potentially an opportunity for for them to more effectively push their counter-offensive because if you are already demoralized Russian troops on the front line with Ukraine and you look at what's going on at home it may make you even less willing to fight that may be an opportunity for Ukraine questions for China XI and pink cannot afford for Putin to go down and in China and she may decide that the best way to save Putin is to put pressure on him to bring this war to a close which has to involve withdrawal of Russian troops question of how this affects China and finally I would expect the administration to be going around with friends and allies but particularly with fence City sitters around the world South Africa Brazil India saying you know do you really want to be neutral and be perceived as supporting someone who is as weak as Putin this was a Bad Bet now it's time for you to change your bet seems to me those are the things that that the president would want to be watching to understand where this is heading over the longer term I'm not going to try to impersonate any president of the United States but but that was just a terrific briefing um if if you're managing this uh and looking at the situation on the ground is it restabilized or is this a beginning of a long period of instability will we see a Game of Thrones where people around Putin see well this is a time to move um you know the way it's been described to me by one really interesting analyst is that there were four sort of power centers uh one of them was the FSB special ops all the troops around there including the the presidential guard which is a very terrific a bunch of troops around Putin that he can rely on the second power is the military the defense Ministry there's some talk last night that the deal with progosian was that the people he's been criticizing shiogu and garasimov will step down hard to believe that Putin would actually negotiate though with pagosia in the time a person he called a traitor but that's what's out there the third is the Wagner group and the Wagner group has made riches from its work in Africa but those are also Putin's riches you know who do they listen to in Africa right now pergosian or and and and and and the fourth is the chechens we haven't talked more much about the chechens but they play a pretty big role and and and they probably have many more troops uh they at their behest than just the ones that are under the ministry of Defense what we do know is if these are the power pillars that they've been shaken that whatever stability there was how ever fragile it was it's shaken so uh how unstable does the situation remain and and then uh you know what role does the president of the United States with his allies play in this kind of situation unknown there are other speakers you're going to get to this morning who probably better positioned to talk about that than I I'll give you my my take so why did Putin do this deal six or eight hours after he called pagosian a traitor and promised uh the the most Draconian kinds of punishment I think they're probably three reasons one the progress pregosian made moving towards Moscow and the fact that it was really fairly unobstructed I think got and if you look at the preparations that were going on in Moscow they took this push very seriously I think that was one reason secondly I think Putin realized that the longer this went on the more likely pregosian's narrative that the Ukraine war was a mistake the Ukraine did not threaten Russia and the brotherly relations between ukrainians and Russians could have been restored without Force the longer Goshen has success the more that narrative might catch on within Russia and secondly I think Putin had to worry about schisms and and breaches within the security services themselves Putin has been balancing these various groups you've talked about for a long time and fairly effectively he didn't either didn't see this one coming or didn't step in soon enough where this goes depends a little bit on whether Putin regains his footing is able to do a Crackdown and a purge for those that were disloyal and is able to restore this sort of balancing act that he was doing before so in some sense his future is in some measure in his own hands in terms of the U.S role I think the Instinct it's very difficult to know what's going on and I think our effort to try to affect what's going on from the outside just would justify all kinds of anti-western anti-us narratives that Putin is based his basically his rhetorical strategy on so I my guess is the administration would and should stay out of this matter accelerate our help for Ukraine or just of course this is the opportunity this is the opportunity for the ukrainians to exploit what looks like chaos in Russia and maybe a degraded morale among Russian troops to try to speak to effectively retake Ukrainian territory from Russian forces if they can um so I'm going to turn next to views on what is going on inside Russia since uh since I think Steve got us off to a good start on that President calulate of Estonia where what happens in Russia uh has a pretty direct and immediate impact on her so I'd just love to hear how president calculate has been looking at this over the weekend and in general Estonian people have been extremely happy to be watching this time from the front row rather than being on the scene like 30 years ago but I also have to say that many people interestingly um even if it is the only happy and Military coup in the last century the one which we witnessed 1991 many are drawing parallels and many were actually hoping that this will be the end and people are quite disappointed that it wasn't but of course well things don't go you don't get this way you don't get the fairy tale military coup every 30 years in Russia what is very clear from here is that Putin is now weak and he is much more perceived to be weak by people inside Russia and if you if uh we were concentrating only on Putin and what he might do then I think we're overlooking the fact that I mean he's not alone that is a regime what Putin actually is presenting and is representing but that means this regime is now fully aware that Putin cannot project power might inside the country and this is becoming critical and that is why I think that he stays at the helm of Russia are also relatively numbered but do not be fooled so we might be seeing somebody else there but it will still be the same regime which knows very well that Putin has no way out but Russia and the regime has a way out and the way of The Logical way out is that Putin is somehow replaced things might happen I mean things might naturally happen well this is easy and they might want then of course end the war in Ukraine but also for us to believe that this is now the new Russia and therefore stop the new cycle and therefore start to rebuild Russian military forces Having learned from the catastrophe in Ukraine and continue with their imperialistic ambition this for me is the real danger scenario from Russia no I'm less worried about Russia turning into a tribal kind of War terrain of domestic War because Frankly Speaking outside of precaution and Wagner there doesn't seem to be contenders who would be able to amass such a force and March on Moscow so if precaution truly is out of the picture and he might well be out of the picture alive or soon dead I do also think that his life expectancy is not long that simply doesn't seem to be anybody else who would be able to Stage this kind of coup but regime change will not happen but presenting us a new face might very well happen and then it is not it's very important that we are not fooled what concerns Ukraine then there is nothing better than I mean continuing our effort and intensifying our effort indeed so that Ukraine is able to take this opportunity that Russian military command is a little bit at least confused keep also in mind it was said before that Russian military might be actually demotivated by the events I don't think so I think that the normal Russian soldier has no access to uh to social media or media online they're not on phones well very few are and even if they were they would not be drawing too many conclusions so my understanding is that we need to continue and help Ukraine to win this war because the sooner Russia realizes that it really and truly has lost this war the regime will try to real out and then it is for us to be vigilant not to accept that this is now the new and Democratic Russia until we really and truly see changes in Russia and real change is not what we saw in 1991 accepting for a change which in reality which was not changed this is very important and this is our view from here continue towards William strongly continue after the video strongly make sure Ukraine wins make sure Russians all understand that they are losing and then not to be fooled what comes next and also not to be too afraid of what comes next Russia is not going to turn into a kind of a tribal competition ground there will be someone who will replace in a relatively other way putting as we know him and represent the old regime in a new way that seems to be what we hear in the front row of thinking collectively thank you thank you president calculate uh what's what's as you were watching this on Saturday what did you think was going to be the best outcome for Estonia and where do you think you are right now I am afraid it might be the best outcome that I mean Russian people are starting to realize Putin is weak but they were given a time period to decide what to do about it because indeed these things had unraveled very quickly like they did in 1991 and we would be looking at somebody taking the power in Russia Today not precaution I think he was only able to create disturbances but somebody else would have stepped into the void and taken responsibility then we would be already in the position which I am personally and many estonians are most most fearing and this Our Fair is everybody in the west again believes this is the new Russia but it would not have been it would have been the same Russia with a new face in front of it so right now the current outcome that we all know Putin is weakened and we can prepare ourselves is much better so we're not well of course we have worried we also stepped up our border controls and everything but I think we need to stay the course and focus more on what we can do in Ukraine how we can help Ukraine to benefit from this situation but I mean nothing nothing massively changed NATO membership in in in July would you move that fast maybe not give it there but the roadmap how should this change anything in in that in the villain Summit in July precisely not I mean this is what we have been saying from this corner of the world let's do what is right right and let's stop guessing what is going on and what will happen thereafter in in Russia and and who is Russia let's do what is right and I've heard hopeful noises also for example from France on on this subject uh a few days ago before even even this this occasion nothing has changed in this sense President Kelly late it's an honor to have you on our International visor board and thank you for giving us that close-up view uh so Angela you've been following uh this uh leader of Russia for a long time uh love to hear your situation report uh what you think is going on is this just the beginning of a Game of Thrones that we're going to see is this the beginning of the end of Putin or or what what is what is your take on all this when I look at looking is possible so what you know what we saw happening doesn't um it doesn't compute for me um because uh you know you you had give any progressions starting off uh in the last week um telling the Russian people um that uh the war was unnecessary that Ukraine didn't threaten them and the reason why Russia went to war with Ukraine is because Russian oligarchs wanted to get their hands on Ukrainian assets uh then um you know what what Wagner was facing obviously was its disillusion and the ministry of Defense saying that the uh Wagner Fighters had to join the regular Armed Forces so that that clearly was not to his liking his forces have done so much of the fighting in that mood you know then you see him go to rustov um and he was the the Wagner teacher were really welcome there um and uh you know they were they were like Heroes uh then you have Putin uh giving this you know very angry speech on Saturday morning likening uh what was happening to 1917 uh to the beginning of the Russian Civil War to the intervention by Western Powers in Russia at that time saying that the Wagner rights were Traders and that they had to be brought to Justice um and then uh you have the the march on Moscow uh you have you know precautions stopping uh within 200 kilometers and then you suddenly have this announcement by Dimitri peskov the press secretary not by Putin or any one of his colleagues uh that an agreement had been reached and that precaution wasn't going to be tried he wasn't you know he was he could go to blrs uh and the same would be true for the Wagner troops I think that were in the end of about 8 000 of them uh who had followed him or would have gone to Moscow um it it doesn't really make any sense at all uh we haven't seen any of Putin's close colleagues publicly support him radio silence in Moscow we had a video today of the defense minister Sergey shoigu allegedly in Ukraine I'm not sure that anyone has verified that that was from today and not from uh you know sometime last week or some kind of a few weeks ago uh clearly one of the major demands the progression has made was that both shoigu and um Valerie garasana the chief of the general staff should be fired as far as we know you know they hadn't been fired so you one has to wonder what it was a precaution uh got for agreeing to stand down and not go to Moscow one suspect that he was maybe waiting for more um support uh indications of support in Moscow we don't know if he had a plan about what he would have done had he gone to Moscow so and we do know that um uh you know Wagner has been very closely related to the gru the Military Intelligence but that now people also saying that the FSB um was somehow also involved to some extent supporting him there's so much that we don't know but I think what we can say is that Putin certainly does look um weaker than he did before that um and and the and the fact that the the message uh that precaution has sent has clearly fallen on fertile ground among some of the Russians even though the public opinion polls show if you believe them that a majority of the people still uh support this War I think there are certainly more questions and because we haven't seen anything from any of his colleagues um you know in supporting him we we have really no clue about what's going on there um but I certainly agree uh that you know the the war in Ukraine will go on I I'm not sure that this necessarily benefits the ukrainians at this point I'm gonna be very interested to hear what our other colleagues have to say about that but um but clearly you know the the worship you know the Western continue supporting Ukraine um uh and and we'll wait and see if there's any change I think most of us believe before this happened that um Putin believed that he could wait the West out that our Unity would you know would weaken um and that you know if he waits to the end of the year the beginning of next year uh and who knows what's going to happen in U.S elections that that would be to his Advantage I'm not really sure whether he can really believe that anymore I think there should be a big question mark um so I I but however I think if this is the beginning of the unraveling of his regime it's probably not going to happen quickly having said that of course anyone who studies Russia knows that you can be surprised it may be a slower process uh but one just does have to assume that this erodes um you know some of of the support that he has but he still has his own National Guard though he's got 300 000 troops that are allegedly loyal to him so it's not as if he's left without any support so maybe I'll stop there thank you uh thank you Angela and let me do a first round through these speakers and then turn to the uh to turn to the incredible people lots of experts also on the line um the uh before I turn to our two four stars General Clark and general scaparati and John Herbst can you give us what your situation report is right now and maybe you can pick up from Angela's standpoint on uh you know what this potentially changes on the ground in Ukraine on the one hand Putin looks weak you know the troops have to question whether they want to die right now for this uh this leader in this country in a time where they've just seen what happened over the weekend on the other hand you have pagosian in Belarus and there are some rumors that maybe he could open up a new front in Belarus which would be a great problem for Ukraine but does Putin really Embrace what a person he's called a traitor opening up a new front I really love Angela's Angelus quote nothing is true and everything is possible I guess that's right but but if you can help us dissect this John and tell us what's true and what's possible I would agree with virtually everything Angelo said I would underscore though that this is certainly a sign of a Putin's weakness and B Fishers in the Putin regime things that have been evident albeit much less clear to people who don't follow closely since last October when the extent of the success of Ukraine's 2022 counter offenses became clear and and uh progression began with some help from Cadet of going out to garasana and shoigu but he became he precaution became increasingly louder and already about two and a half months ago he gave a peculiar speech in which he foreshadowed his criticism his clear criticism of the war in Ukraine and the and the unjustifiable pretext for that war so this has all been building again since last fall and Angela's right we don't know what the senior power players in Moscow have been doing and thinking we do know however that this is truly Putin's war and very few people including among his siloviki closest Pals wanted this big invasion and everyone understands that Moscow Russia has paid a large price for this as has Putin's regime the interesting thing about precaution is saying this publicly with at this point no pushback one more one more small small indicator of perhaps the continuing weakening of the Putin regime there's a member of the Duma a thing taker as well Sergey Markov who's a very reliable uh indicator of people who are close to Putin or rather want to be close to Putin and are trying to position themselves for the future he's had several telegram posts this morning essentially saying that Russian spin meisters are putting out the following instructions for explaining what happened such as it's all over this demonstrates the stability and the wisdom of the Putin regime the fact that he's putting that out suggests he's trying to hedge he doesn't think that the regime is doing that well and I think that's true now what's going on in Ukraine in the war um at an absolute minimum this is a plus for ukrainians because the already demoralized Russian soldiers have one more reason to be demoralized also and this actually predates the coup attempt Wagner's essentially pulled out of the fight after it quote unquote took Bach moot several weeks ago and Wagner whatever it's um liabilities Remains the most potent Force fighting on the field in Ukraine so them being at least partly out of the fight is important if now they're going to meekly go into the ministry of Defense to become part of the regular Russian military they will be notably less effective they're not going to strengthen the already demoralized troops they will just become part of the morass so this is another Plus for Ukraine as for what we should do I mean My Views are not I've not been hidden I think we should be stronger than we've been for the last uh several years that predates by includes Biden and I think that we should be setting the weapons Ukraine needs to ensure that they can break the land bridge in the next six months so far the administration's not willing to go there um maybe this will help them move in that direction we should also be planning for a much more robust Vilnius NATO Summit than Washington seems to be interested in although the White House has been embarrassed by me behind most of the Allies now including the French regarding NATO Ukraine and they are trying to come up with something and hopefully they'll come up with more than they were planning a few weeks ago one major part of the debate on our policy towards Ukraine and Russia has been what I consider to be the well played by the Kremlin blue Putin nuclear Bluff the Russians have spent 20 years building the elaborate metaphor but Putin as the rat in the corn who would lash out of cornet but we just saw what the rat in the corner does when he was confronted with a column a flying column heading towards Moscow he headed for the tall grass this should also inform our understanding of what Putin might do if Ukraine were to take the land bridge in other words I don't think we have to worry about we have to always have to take into account the possibility of but we should not be intimidated by his increasingly Hollow uh nuclear threats thank you I think we'll hear more from that from uh General Clark and general scapporo let me just go back to Angela for one minute because I think you're the one on this call that can tell us the most about fissures and the Putin regime and I know it's opaque I know it's hard to figure out but one woman's hearing as you said people were silent yesterday so one didn't hear from the the the head of intelligence in the rescue one didn't really hear from patricov in any way and you can explain to the people on the line who these people are Angela uh you know does jocking begin now among these people what do we know and what's your reading of the silence I mean obviously you didn't have troops in rust off and Don stopping pregosian so as uh you know you've watched the Kremlin for a long time this is almost more complicated to figure out but what are your thoughts well first of all you know it really is a black box I mean we certainly know I'm not talking about the very Inner Circle we certainly know that there are significant numbers of people among the elite who are very dissatisfied with what's been happening not the least because they they can't travel to Europe or the us or wherever they can't visit their bank accounts in their homes and you know they thought that they were part of this globalized um Elite and now they're stuck in Russia um and and sanctioned many of them um and I think that is very evident even at the Petersburg International economic Forum a couple of weeks ago how different it was um from what it used to be before this War Began now having said that um a lot of those people have been understand that they can't leave um and and have been have been told that so they're stuck um but as for Putin's very Inner Circle we really don't know very much about that at all I mean that is Nikolai Chef you know the head of his Security Council probably the heads also of the foreign and domestic intelligence Services um uh the uh the svr and the FSB um and then there are you know there are people who are close friends of Putin who don't have official uh jobs in the administration like Yuri kavalchuk um who owns one of the big Banks there those are the people and probably ego section who uh is the head of rosneff um and those are the people he talks to um there has been some speculation when people talk about a potential successor to Putin uh people go back now uh to Mr kittyenko who was actually prime minister briefly in 1999 and now is an enthusiastic supporter of the war and has a much more public profile um and there are a few younger Governors um whose names pop up as potential successes but of course until now um you know Putin doesn't want to be hasn't wanted to be a lame duck and therefore he clearly hasn't named that um but again I come back to you know the fact that none of the people who uh who hold these positions and including the Prime Minister who's been very very quiet really since the War Began but none and who would by the way if something happened to Putin he would actually succeed him for the first few months until there was an election but none of these people you know have come out and supported him so I wouldn't be able to come up with a name for you but I would say if there's an orderly succession uh then you would still have someone coming to power who shares Putin's views um if there if there's some discontinuity then that could all change but if there's an orderly one it would be a similar um regime now would it continue to prosecute the war in Ukraine I mean that's a that's a huge question or it might uh decide that it wanted to to think about ways of getting out and Saving Face um but we really we really know very little about all of this uh just because it's uh you know the people who surround him are mainly from the intelligence services and they know how to suppress information say thank you Angela so General Clark first in general scaparati uh let's uh do this round I'm going to start watching my screen for the hands that are up for questions uh from from all of you and and questions and comments because I see we've got some pretty substantial experts on on the line listening in as well uh General Clark well the first thing is to make sure the Russian soldiers know what's happened so they can be demoralized one of the things Russian forced to have done is take away the mobile Communications from their soldiers when they reach a certain point on the battlefield so the ukrainians have been running uh information operations for some time they've been encouraging pressure soldiers to surrender threatening them doing other things they need to intensify those information operations now make sure that they take advantage of this situation to exact the the most demoralization they can from the Russian forces that they're facing secondly gotta gotta understand that these Ukrainian forces are facing a huge problem with minefields the whole front is virtually the whole front is mined they've got to find a way through it that's slow it's painstaking and uh we didn't give them sufficient equipment to do this in particular they need more mine clearing line charges uh probably by a factor of 10 the only way you're going to get through this is to blow your way through it you can't have a soldier on his belly with a knife hoping for mine in fact to really make a breakthrough on this and you can't put your mind clearing tanks up front uh in broad daylight or even at night and think you can drill a path through this these are really uh deep minefields they can be reinforced with artillery delivered lines and and have been so um this is a significant the significant problem third thing is we need to continue to push equipment to the ukrainians in particular they need a 155 artillery systems not just the ammunition the systems they're in a tough counter fire fight with Russian Artillery they started to fight outnumbered they're now perhaps On a par in terms of being able to return shell for shells but when they take losses they can't fix it they have to if it's Western they have to send it out so they need more tubes you cannot Advance against this kind of a defense without winning the counterfire battle they need more air defense that's available to protect mobile forces we need to give them a tackles right away and we don't need to announce it we just need to put it in there um it's fired from the same launcher minimal train up put a few hundred systems in there and let's get rid of the Russian reserves and the counter and the Russian Artillery positions that can be detected are we giving the ukrainians real-time Battlefield intelligence what I believe is they're not but the Brits are I guess they're taking hours can we do anything to focus this and get the information down to the individual units that are trying to breach these minefields if we go back and look at our imagery records we know exactly where the defenses are when they were put in what was put in there don't do any good to have it published in the financial times it has to be down at the tank crewman level down to a six digit break coordinates so um if we haven't done that we need to do that um so those would be the immediate things on the battlefield where so one ocean supports us go now the newspapers say that we saw this build up happening well if we saw the build up happening uh surely we've got listening devices in there we can hear who's talking we know who they are what are they saying we're not hearing anything from National sources on this I hope we know where they went is progression really going to Belarus is he going to really link up with the nuclear warheads that are there is it going to run a coup against lukashenko has this all been a kabuki dance probably not but could they make something of it later maybe I'd say the chances are remote on that I think it's a 90 percent what you see is what there was a weak chain of command no real support for Putin um and um and the Russian military in the field being vulnerable but if we don't get those that information down to the individual soldier on the Russian side and erode his confidence in his chain of command then all this talk at high levels about Putin being weak and so forth doesn't affect the military situation on the ground final Point um if I were Ukraine I would strengthen my observation of what's going on on the border of Belarus you just never know thank you General Clark thank you for that I think this underscoring of belarusa I mean watching Belarus might be the real place where we figure out what this pregosian quote unquote truce is all about um you know uh uh you know if I want to go into Exile I'm probably not going to do it in Belarus uh and um if I could just say one more thing yes picking up on what John Irv said we've got to get Ukraine into NATO and this uh this looking around for security guarantees that will let us avoid this it's like we want to hold back the NATO decision to use it as a bargaining chip with Putin surely what we've seen here is that Putin is wheat put it out that Ukraine will join NATO next year create some additions and if Putin wants to come forward and preemptively surrender rather than have NATO come into Ukraine good good but use the bargaining chip the correct way not by looking wheat but by looking strong and showing strength to Russia so General General scaparetti why don't you pick up from there um uh the Belarus question was really interesting I certainly the one I'm going to watch very closely but I could argue this both ways that this is a time to really double down in supporting Ukraine because there's a moment of weakness move forward there are some in the administration that would say no no no that could uh uh you know trigger a response nuclear otherwise we're out of desperation Putin does something really truly crazy I don't know where you come down on that but also your overall situation analysis General scaparotti yeah thanks Fred and it's a pleasure to be a part of this and particularly to listen to the expertise among this group here uh you know starting with that I would just tell you throughout this time I've been one that believed that our Administration has been too timid uh in terms of it I mean I I respect the leadership within NATO and what we have done for Ukraine and that we've been focused on that but I think we've been uh too cautious in what we provided Ukraine and when we provided it I.E doing it in somewhat of a incremental way so because of that I think this is a real opportunity and now is the time to make sure the ukrainians have what they need and they get it quickly I agree with General uh Clark absolutely on that I think we've just done this in too slow of a fashion so Now's the Time to show strength and Now's the Time to reinforce them I would be less concerned about provocation um from my point of view Putin's in a in a very very bad spot right now with lots of problems um I I just don't I don't think that supporting Ukraine at this point exploiting the situation certainly being aware of of indicators but I don't I don't believe that that's a reason for extreme concern I would also say that this has got to be um undermining the Russian troops morale that certainly they're they don't have full access but I'm sure the command and them know that there's things happening and and we have ways within information operations to make sure we get that out and I would certainly be be working with those aspects of it and I hope that we're helping the ukrainians be effective at that um and if I were the ukrainians I would exploit this as much as I possibly could um one of the things that I wonder about we just don't know there's a lot that we don't know which has been said but it's interesting to me is this thing on unraveled that um you know typically the Russians put their um their private armies or commercial armies if you will under their their intelligence apparatus under the FSB or those and that's what they've done throughout history and so uh for this to occur and not see more of a response than we did even over the indicators over the past couple of weeks is really surprising to me and that that leads me to believe that there's a lot that we don't know about what's going on I was also surprised that Putin didn't react as quickly as one might expect so I think there's there's uh there's a lot that we don't know yet and certainly watching it closely but uh on the part of the United States um being also somewhat cautious in our in our response let's wait and see um how this rolls in terms of policy having said that I also would probably uh be in contact with China to see what their thoughts are on this and uh and leverage that for their assistance because just another indicator that this is a strategic Mistake by putting and I'll end there thanks um do you have anything to say General scaparotti and what their response was over the weekend of China and maybe Steve knows as well but uh I thought it was very interesting I think they have a foreign minister in Moscow right now I'm not mistaken Steve do you want to speak to that quickly how China is looking at this I I don't think we know I think Joanne's initial reaction from what I've seen in the press and that's my only sources has been very cautious I think they're in a little watching and waiting but this can't be reassuring to she to see his life partner you know have a column get within 150 miles of of Moscow so I think this is an opportunity for the administration to to get China to double down on a potential effort to pressure Putin to to bring this war to an end in a way that involves getting Russian troops out of Ukraine because that's that's in a way the way you save Putin at this point in time and we I hope the administration is making that argument to the Chinese thank you Steve anything on that General scaparotti no nothing more on that okay so uh we scheduled this for an hour and a half because I think we anticipated the depth of these opening comments and also uh the wealth of knowledge that's uh outside of the speakers that's on the line so I'll turn to Brian Kelly first and then and then Joe nine then General Jones are lined up um and uh and among the speakers uh you know if it's a question say who you want to address it to but obviously his comments are fair game as well uh and then on the speakers if you want to intervene at some point um then put up your hand as well so I know that so that I know you'd like to do that so Brian thanks Fred and always phenomenal conversation I mean General scaparati you kind of touched on a little bit of my question but how should we be thinking about the EU us and China coordinating on a response we talked about the caution and I and I appreciate that comment but is there some coordination on Leverage between the three kind of legs of the stool and if that ear is coordination does that actually create a counter reaction for Putin kind of lashing out is in a corner so I'd be curious about that thought process thank you John Scott I think that was to you and the other speakers they can sure right Brian I think there is that that should occur and I think it's in the manner in which it's approached as to whether how Putin reacts to that I think it's a value to uh to collaborate like that and I think uh a message that um from the three could be powerful from those entities uh for Putin informing him and again I think part of that is how is it messaged to him what's the message and I think there's ways to do that that could be helpful all along I believe that the United States bringing together as many countries as we can to message The Stance is always the best route thank you Joe Knight uh thanks Fred and I wanted to pick up your point about Belarus and ask Angela a question and the question is what if anything did we learn from the weekends events about lukashenko and his role I mean the conventional wisdom has been that Uncle Shaco was Putin's puppet uh on the other hand if he has alliances with other factions and Putin has been weakened you may have more leeway for Belarusian policy than before among those questions is is he able or even willing to protect pregosian uh otherwise I think the earlier comment that I wouldn't want to write the insurance policy on pregosian life stands so what do you think about Belarus and lukashenka and Angela I might add to that is can we accept at face value that Luke kashenko was the mediator who brought this home told that uh lukashenko was negotiating all day on Saturday uh with precaution uh and maybe that's true um one reason why he might have been given that role is because if something goes wrong uh then Putin himself wouldn't get the blame for it they could always blame lukashenko um if if they're things that that don't go the way they want them to do otherwise it's difficult to see because until now we've seen Luka shankill in a very subordinate uh position to Putin he's totally dependent on Putin for staying in power um and therefore it was surprising to think that he would take any initiative like that um we don't buy and that's this has already been mentioned we don't know whether pregosian really is in Belarus or not I mean there was a cryptic message yesterday on his uh internet platform from Wagner saying that he would communicate with people when he had better cell phone service which is uh really funny because that raises the question of you know why he doesn't have better uh cell phone service now um so I um I I don't have a good answer to this I can't imagine that there would be any kind of an alliance uh between lukashenko and precaution um it's already been raised the question of would precaution be using Belarus as a way of you know going back with his soldiers into Ukraine but I doubt that because I think the you know they want to dissolve Wagner um uh the Russian mod does so I'm I'm not sure what uh its future is there so I don't have a very good answer for you I'm afraid um so uh the news news just coming in Breaking uh two minutes ago pagosian this is in the Ft P pregosian denies trying to overthrow the Russian government and the truth is he all he said was he wanted to have the defense minister and he wanted to ask him up and shiogu replace he he never said he wanted in fact he didn't talk about Putin at all on Saturday but uh but Steve I I know you wanted to comment on how the talks unfolded well you know look Angela's better positioned on this I will just say what the Press was saying over the weekend in answer to Joe's question one lukashenko said that he spoke with Putin before he undertook this role with pagosian and secondly Angela I saw a press report that said that that he was lukashenko was supported by Putin's chief of staff and by the Russian ambassador to Belarus so while he was the figurehead I'm not sure he was a disinterested third party negotiating this seems to me more he was doing it on instructions and with coach and coaching from from Putin forces but that's just press reports you would know better than I no I think that's quite possible I'm sure Putin was involved in this um but for whatever reason he wanted Luka shenko to be the one the public face of the negotiation a terrific General Johnson I think then John Herbst wants to also come in on one of the questions so General Jones thank you um I think one of the the big issues as a result of this is the issue of uh whether Ukraine should join NATO now or later prior to this I think that part of this event I think the consensus was that the NATO membership would would come later although there'd be some affirmation of Billings that it would come and some guarantees but you know in view of Putin's weakness at this point uh I would think that this is a matter that would be uh ultimately discussed as the rest of the timing of NATO members second to General Clark and general scaparati's comments on getting the ukrainians the arms that they need I completely agree that it should be now and as quickly as possible and then I think another question is what's the future of the Wagner group um what are they what are they going to do um and I don't think that's been resolved yet um and um and belarus's role I think is uh worthy of waiting to see what happens there I I can't imagine that uh an exile into Belarus with whatever guarantees uh Putin or lukasenko may have given uh precautions would have much value I think I think the Christian's wife's uh expectancy in Belarus would be quite short and lastly I completely agree with the point that we should really engage with China on this as much as we can as these things go on because I I'm sure the president she is watching this uh unfold with uh asking himself a lot of questions about the future the future the dynamite contemplate on Taiwan thank you thank you thank you General Jones uh having three former Supreme Allied commanders Europe on the line is always a useful thing to discuss A Moment Like This uh John herpson by the way John was former our former ambassador to Ukraine and Uzbekistan as well as being the leader of our Eurasia Center John um regarding progoja in Belarus uh whatever whoever took the initiative whether it was lukashenko trying to get some leverage or the Kremlin try seeking to use lukashenko this is kind of a coup for him um since his failed election which he which he claimed himself president of despite the results in 2020 he has become more and more under Putin's control so this this may give him a little bit of a standing up to push back uh but progression in in Belarus is going to be under Putin's control in some fashion a lot of people are speculating that he is not long for this world and that's possible because Putin looks weak for having allowed regulsion to get out of this mess after he launched the coup but there's a good reason for putinato to take him to take him down because pregosian remains a figure of some popularity and legitimacy in Russia and while Putin could try and do this you might say um behind closed doors everyone will assume that's him and I think Putin has to worry about that I thank you for that um President Kelly light I wonder you're closer to Belarus than any of us are how do you look at the situation in Belarus pagosian going there and the whole role that lukasenko could end up playing or pagosian could end up playing uh on that long border that Belarus has with Ukraine is playing any important role here in this game I'm quite sure that he was not the initiate and he was not The Negotiator he was chosen as someone who could offer immediately the problem and to resolve immediately the problem was indeed to get because in somehow out of the way I definitely don't think that any promise is given to him relating to shoiko or kerasimo will be kept and and definitely he's just put aside and then those people who really decide they will think about how to how to handle this situation with applications 25 000 students will even follow him to uh to the region which is now indicated in in Belarus where they would have a new camp I have said results many might actually go back to Syria and to Africa and and some might take up the opportunity to join the the regular army but those who will go there I don't I don't see them anymore as a risk to uh to Ukraine after what precaution has been saying that I mean this war was a mistake it is just serving or it is serving the Russian oligars so is enriching themselves so I do I do think look kashenko is the pawn and I do think that that precaution well real faces Faith rather sooner than later thank you thank you for that uh President Kelly it's interesting that you you now have progosian putting out a statement an audio statement but neither Putin nor pagosian has uh has appeared publicly in fact we don't even really know where pagosian is um uh but they and they haven't appeared publicly since all of this was to a certain extent resolved so that's an interesting situation um we we have uh ambassadorama Putin has a bit Putin has appeared today uh whether it's really a video from today but it had he has appeared today speaking to some kind of young scientists of Russia or something but he didn't mention even the the attempted coup or precaution in in his speech but he has appeared today interesting very useful so I'm looking for more questions and comments uh I'd love to have somebody could give me the potential impact on on Africa uh you know the Wagner group's playing an outsized role there um uh you know the the troops are they listening to progosian is he still their Commander is Putin their Commander you know uh you know ramayyad who runs our Africa Center wrote about this some yesterday but I don't think we actually know how that's going to unfold but there are knock-on impacts all over uh the world on this I don't know whether Steve youuck have any thoughts on the Africa front or anyone and any one of our speakers or attendees and I'll look as well for other questions well I'll I'll be filler and hopefully someone who really knows something about Africa will step in I think part of it is uh the money it's uh it's been a terrific source of of uh income for progression and supporting uh his forces and the question is whether people will decide this this is now up for grabs I suspect Putin is already getting his cut the question is whether others will want some kind of cut don't know there's a question of when we talk about incorporating the Wagner group into the mod does that include the forces in Africa because for the moment Putin and Russia have been basically one step behind and had a certain amount of deniability do they really want to take explicit responsibility for what the Wagner Wagner troops have been doing in Africa so I think there are a lot of questions I'm with General Jones I think don't think we know the answer at this point in time but others who may be closer to it and I please raise your hand and bail me out here it's my understanding that um stated that um to to make the force that they had in Ukraine the Wagner group brought a lot of their troops out of Africa to to the Ukraine to to make that robust for us so I again I'm not I'm not completely sure what's going on in Africa but I think I think I heard from kind of incredible sources that they pulled a lot of their troops back in order to make up interesting interesting John thank you so much for that let me turn to Angela Stanton then John Herbst um Angela yeah just just to add to this I mean vodma has become a very important arm of the Russian state in terms of projecting its influence particularly on the African continent um it owns you know Wagner Owens very lucrative gold and diamond and other Precious Minerals um Assets in the Central African Republic in other parts of Africa it's it's very active in Sudan in a number of places and I think as you intimated uh uh Steve you know it's not only the precaution and the other commanders benefit from this financially but so does the Kremlin I mean we know that so I I would find it very hard to believe that they're going to suddenly dismantle Wagner uh particularly at this time uh when the you know Russian regular forces are fighting uh in Ukraine and have someone else take over their activities in Africa so I think this is something to watch very carefully uh will they continue doing what they're doing there um and they've expanded their activities uh in the last year um or is there going to be another big struggle because we're talking about huge assets and then the support of a number of authoritarian leaders there um who are very dependent on Moscow so Angela what are what are the odds that uh we're actually not going to have a permanent break at all between Putin and pagosan uh Putin said things about pregosian uh on Saturday but pagosan said nothing critical about Putin at all and today he's just sent out this statement that says hey look they killed 30 of my Fighters I wasn't trying to overtake the the government I'm just trying to keep my my troops intact and and and and fighting and I I wasn't going at more or less said I wasn't going after Putin at all I I know a lot of this is speculation as you said earlier but they've been awfully close for awfully long is this really the breaking point between the two of them or is or not yeah so it I mean I mean size few weeks ago indirectly he talked about the war not going well and then about quote unquote the happy grandfather who's a little bit removed from reality so this was seemed to be a gentle uh criticism of Putin yeah I I'm not sure that there will be a break between them and they have been dependent on each other um and you know we get back to the question though obviously uh great tensions within the Inner Circle man between the ministry of defense and other groups um we'll just have to wait and see I mean we might see um a precaution now we can't uh uh and then come back to the field or you know he could meet with an unfortunate accident any day John Hertz Angela preempted most of what I wanted to say I was just going to to add that first there also is also significant volume presence in Syria and in Libya and that apparently has not changed in recent weeks and as Angela pointed out there are vested interests both commanders in the field and others who profited from Wagner's activities in the Middle East and in Africa and chances are they'll those detectivities will continue they'll just make sure that pagosian's hands are not on them General Jones go ahead I'll be curious as to be curious to from our panelists to hear whether they think that the NATO issue for Ukraine is is one that should be uh Advanced or what what what's what's the feeling about going into Vilnius about natal membership for for Ukraine now but now that this has happened oh was it the president calculate do you want to comment on that absolutely absolutely everything what we can do to forward fast forward the messaging towards Russia they are really losing they are losing everything on every ground this is what we need to do and therefore the clearer the message Ukraine will join NATO the better there is no other way forward to drive home to Russians to ordinary Russians that they really are losing thank you I completely agree with that so president calculate how do you navigate the following and maybe Steve uh having been uh involved in the 2008 uh issue of Ukraine's membership can comment on this as well the argument is that you can't bring a country into NATO where part of it is occupied or it's at war with somebody on the other hand all that does is reinforce Putin's position to continue to occupy and to continue to be at War and I just wonder if there's some sort of work around here where uh where where we don't give him uh the wrong incentives so President Kelly laid first and then Steve Hadley I'm I'm quite sure that whatever linguistic acrobatics we would use I mean Russia will understand our intent either we will I mean we will continue we will help Ukraine to get rid of partial occupation and we will help you plan to join NATO we don't need to be specific about what will be the conditions what will be the time frame but I think we need to be very clear that we see Ukraine in NATO when they have restored that territorial Integrity but also pointing out that history knows occasions when countries have joined having been partially occupied or or broken like for example Germany so uh I I don't I don't think that trying to be particularly Nimble with the words will help Russians will get the message one way or the other one message is we are weak we are afraid and the other message is we are strong and we will we will persevere and we will make this happen for Ukraine in a safe time frame in a safe format and there is no no Third Way I believe so and that my feeling is that in Europe for months thinking also back to discussions which we've had here in Europe for a couple of months there has been also in Germany and in France kind of coming to the common conclusion which is not publicly mentioned mentioned yet but there is no other way that Ukraine has to be within NATO thank you thank you Steve well you're putting me on the spot this is you know we one of the lessons I think I would draw from our experience in 2008 at Bucharest where we on the one hand and the Germans and the French split on this issue of membership action plan for for Ukraine and Georgia I think uh rather than being a provocation for Putin it was an opportunity for Putin because he saw that the French and the Germans were on a really unalterably opposed to any near-time consideration of membership for Ukraine and he took that as an opportunity it is interesting that the only two countries Putin has invaded Georgia and Ukraine in this neighborhood are the ones that are not in NATO so I think it actually was an opportunity but it the lesson for it is that whatever comes out of Vilnius has to be Unified we cannot have a split between one group of allies and another it would be I think present an opportunity another opportunity for Putin but more it might undermine the existing steadfast and I think very strong consensus between the United States and Europe for support for Ukraine so I think that's the risk um so it's got it's got to be one in consensus and there will be those in the administration who will say that if we move forward with NATO membership for Ukraine in any way now it will bail Putin out because it will be justified and seem to validate his notion that he is you is defending Russia against a NATO moving Eastward I don't agree with that I think we're going to have to and some of you who write op-eds on this subject I think need to answer that argument there's a proposal that Sandy versebau and Ian Brzezinski did that basically said you would upgrade the current relationship between NATO and Ukraine you would set a time table for the next NATO Summit to develop two things one a robust plan for readying Ukraine for NATO membership and sin separately uh supporting and institutionalizing acceleration of support militarily for Ukraine so by that same NATO dated as a position as best as it can to defend itself by itself which is the commitment we've really given to Israel I think there's something there and it also puts a time out there where we would we would consider firmly bringing Ukraine into NATO I think something like that may be able to get a consensus within the alliance but I do think we need a consensus we don't need a falling out among U.S and the European allies at this point on on over you anything over Ukraine that's the best I can do uh thank you Steve amadoran hi uh it's it's not an immediate matter but just a quick thought would turkey approve Ukraine's NATO membership well you can answer that for us you're there will turkey approve the Swedish membership right they've approved Finland I I I don't know I have my opinions but the interesting part of this the interesting part of the Summit is how does all of this affect Putin's relationship with erdogan which is incredibly close and is certainly part of the reason why he's been dragging his feet on on NATO's membership for Sweden uh but that's a really interesting on Saturday on Saturday are the one public base uh announces support to to Putin yeah over the the Wagner moment yeah does anyone online have an answer to the Sweden question uh General Clark General scaparati you know let let actually why don't I go for a final round starting with you General scaparotti you can answer this but in this final round we're done the last 10 minutes maybe 30 seconds for everybody what what are you watching now to I mean this is a difficult situation to sort out and maybe you can share with people what you're going to watch in the next few days uh I'm certainly going to watch whether the chief of staff garasimov and the Secretary of Defense shiogo staying power and I'm going to watch where pagosan appears and what Putin and pagosian say about each other uh and so I those are two things I'm going to watch uh General scaparati General Clark let me turn to the two of you first and they'll go in reverse order that we started yeah thank you Fred uh yeah I agree with you I mean I I'd certainly watch the leadership but I'm I'm surprised uh frankly that that um shogu and garissam off have have stayed in position as long as they can so I think to see how this shakes out with them giving the frigations attacks have been directed primarily at them throughout this time the second thing is is just watching the uh the responsiveness of of their chain of command and their troops and what we can learn uh about their uh their right you know their performance and their response to this what do they know um I think that will be quite interesting yeah that I think watching the troops on the ground the Russian troops on the ground Ukraine obviously interesting thing General Clark I agree with all that I think it's very strange that we haven't heard anything about the people the the troops in rostov and um they surrendered their Garrison to production is that going to be acceptable are they going to be punished for that and again we've got to locate those Wagner troops where are they what are they doing and where is burgosian what is his plan so those are things I'd be wanting thank you I would say this I want Fred one more thing on NATO I I do think that we the diverse battle Brzezinski plan is good but not sufficient I think to go back to what the president said we've got to have NATO an agreement they will be in NATO maybe it's not in 24 months maybe it's not in 12 months but we've got to put nato in there we don't want to try to push Ukraine into an Israel solution and I hear that being discussed that's not a lasting solution in Europe that's a gray Zone in Europe they need to be in NATO so we need to say it at the summit I'm in France and the French are telling me that France wants them in NATO and the Americans are saying to the French you're trying to escape your responsibilities by making us take your security responsibilities so they believe that our Administration is ducking the responsibility for bringing Ukraine into NATO that's what I'm getting from French people associated with the leadership so I I can share with this group because president zielinski allowed us to use this on the record and John Hurst was there with me John Rogers was General Petraeus was in our meeting with zielinski a couple of weeks ago and he said that if NATO doesn't come further then it's agreed to come so far and that included the the verse about uh in Brzezinski piece which I thought was quite good in forward laning that he would not be able to come to Vilnius because he would consider it that because the Ukrainian people would consider it a betrayal of them uh that there they are dying on the front lines in order to stop an authoritarian who threatens us all and threaten all threatens freedoms more generally uh and that they uh that they really need a stronger sign and stronger security guarantees for him for him to actually come to the summit which I thought was very interesting and it was in an off-record conversation then we went back to him later and I asked whether I could use it on record and his people said that they were willing to do that so it's not these anti-nato I mean without without the US and the U.S support he wouldn't be able to fight the war right now but on the other hand this is a difficult time for Ukraine as well as you can well imagine let me continue to go down the go down the line let me do John Herbst and then uh and and then president calculate and then Angela and then we'll close with Steve okay I I would agree Fred with you that watch progression very closely and watch Putin very closely I'd also be looking for any statements coming from any of the silova king Partridge people usually quiet but see if there's any indication there the one place where you have people who are willing to talk is on Telegram and the Russian military bloggers who have often been criticizing the way the war has been conducted but not in fact the decisions go to war so they are worth watching we're saying they can provide some education of where where developers who they had yeah progression statement on telegram that the war wasn't worth fighting was the first major person who's done that it's a very important thing that's gone out there president calculate uh I wouldn't be watching off I think they are safer in their jobs for the next months that they have been for the last year because support emits the same face and giving in to precaution would be really not something I think I would watch whether precaution is alive two weeks or a month from now because the only way for Putin to re-establish that he is still strong these are the Russian people would be actually that he will be able to show that he was able to deal with precaution in somehow and he has to demonstrate it some way somehow if he's not able to do it then I think we should really be watching I mean how putting gets weaker and weaker and who are the people who will then speak out against him for example Uh Russian nationalists who have been strongly supporting the war in Moscow the really radical uh well you would say Russian Neo-Nazi groups have been yesterday also criticizing important this is new so things will continue uh put in will either be weak and or he will be able to demonstrate somehow that he has regained the Opera my guess is he will not be able to so it will be kind of his his power will be downgraded gradually and then we will see something something happening when the rest of the decision makers decide they can do without him that is something which I which I think is the most probable but soygo was inspecting inspecting uh the troops he's been visible rather than before he wasn't actually so I think they are safe in their jobs for a couple of weeks okay thank you so much and we're down last three minutes so Angela and Steve uh what will you what will you be watching no I don't have very much to add I am going to be watching uh whether sugar and garasimo stay in place and they probably will um I will be watching to see whether precaution resurfaces where he is um and uh I will you know and again I'll also be watching to see what the um other P any of the slovaki around Putin what they're saying and I'll be watching Putin too uh where does he appear uh what does he say what does he not say um and let me just add my two cents I do not think that the Israel solution is the solution for Ukraine and it certainly has to get into NATO sooner rather than later it's too late to get into whether he appears or his body double appears but that's been more and more frequent by the way but Steve I want to watch on what we do at first my view is it's not Israel as a substitute for NATO it's NATO membership plus the kind of support for Ukraine we give Israel so my view West is it's NATO plus Israel we need to try to get that out of illness but it needs to be a consensus among the alliance and the message I think to the Russians is if you don't like this direction these are this is heading then get out of Ukraine secondly I think we've got to watch whether the administration is going to take the advice from General Clark and general scaparoti and really ramp up our support militarily for Ukraine so they can take advantage of the situation and three monitoring Russian troop morale and everything we can do to encourage its undermining thank you what a terrific group of experts and speakers I feel honored to work with this level of public servants in our International Advisory board on our board in general at the Atlantic Council thanks to everybody joining this uh this quickly scheduled event if you have ideas of people you'd like to hear from other events you'd like to see send them along to me by email and or however else you want to reach them to me but thanks for joining and thanks to Steve and John herps and Kashi kalulate Angela stent Wes Clark and Curtis Capriati it's great to have you all as part of the Atlantic Council Community thanks and see you see you the next time foreign

Channel: AtlanticCouncil

Views: 11,095

Keywords: foreign policy expert, Russia, Ukraine, Prigozhin's rebellion, Russian political system, former NSA, Stephen J. Hadley, Atlantic Council, Frederick Kempe, Kersti Kaljulaid, Angela Stent, John Herbst, Curtis M. Scapparotti, Wesley K. Clark, insights, geopolitical analysis, CEO, Russia expert, US Ambassador to Ukraine, foreign policy, Wagner mutiny, Russia-Ukraine conflict, exclusive briefing, national security, crisis management, US foreign policy, leadership insights

Id: q7260rV_DH8

Length: 84min 9sec (5049 seconds)

Published: Mon Jun 26 2023