Accident Case Study: VFR into IMC

it's the 2nd of January 2006 and the day is dawning crisp and beautiful over the mountains of Billings Montana conditions are clear in the visibility unlimited the type of morning that gives Big Sky Country its name on this first Monday of the new year a 50 year old pilot is preparing to fly his Beechcraft debonair November 1 to 5 for Zulu from Billings to a job site in Spanish Fork Utah it is a routine flight for the 1,000 our airman who holds a commercial pilot certificate but is not instrument-rated planning of the far trip this morning for Billings to uniform 77 near Provo Utah that's Spanish for ya do you remember the pilot describes his intended route to the weather briefer after departing Billings he will fly south to the Bois and reservoir vor then turn Southwest on a course to the Fort Bridger vor at that point he will avoid high terrain by following the highway down to Heber City Utah then fly through narrow Provo Canyon and land at Spanish Fork just south of Salt Lake City the three and a half hour trip will cover more than 400 nautical miles and take the pilot through some of the most forbidding terrain in the West the weather briefing the outlook for the intended route and the news isn't good okay drawing a line up turn for sting for western Wyoming the rest of the route parent occasional mountain ox creation clouds precipitation mr. Todd being Brown recommended into that area and from Oh southwestern Wyoming the rest of the route occasional moderate turbulence below by level one eight zero areas of precipitation for from say Fort Bridger area the rest of the route mainly mixed or rain type precipitation light moderate in in intensity the terminal forecast for a Provo 15 to 0 300 zero not real good wind one seven zero two zero three zero visibility more than six hours of sanity ceiling 5000 broken 8,000 overcast after dark deteriorating further well yeah but it's not good now I would recommend VFR crust it can get a long ways down given the high terrain between reporting stations the forecast is ominous but the VFR only pilot is determined to attempt the flight approximately an hour and 20 minutes after receiving the weather briefing he radios Billings ground control and requests runway to eight left for departure he also asks for VFR flight following along his southbound Route at an intended altitude of 9500 feet approximately 15 minutes after takeoff departure control hands him off to Salt Lake center one two five four zero Salt Lake center Roger bilham South two meters two Niner six four for the next two hours the flight proceeds without incident radar contact is lost on several occasions due to the aircraft's relatively low altitude at 11:19 a.m. Salt Lake center advises the pilot of deteriorating weather conditions to the south one two five four zero Roger be advised there is quite a bit of weather in the Salt Lake Valley and to the south a pretty good storm system moving over right now copy that the frontier we're up as to purposely forty miles over despite his confidence in the excellent conditions locally the pilot follows up on ATC's warning with a call to flight watch on one to two point zero they're rocks break November 5 for zoo turn weather condition along without a fight you do not get a forager evanston is reporting on an automated report winds two to zero at 7:00 visibility at 1:05 thousand scattered ceilings of 8,000 broken at trouble they're reporting winds general manager lat visibility of 1-0 with a few clouds at 1900 2200 calories ceilings of 4000 X 1/4 plus for a dew point of a -1 we do have an air matter for that entire route of flight for amount to the occasion straight in clouds and precipitation so what happened by Zadok VFR flight other mountainous train would not be recommended the Evanston altimeter is - 9 or 8 3 Kimmel m54 Zulu Roger we got a report from the tower that won the weather I gave you a bubble was a 50-50 deal yeah oxytocin it was the odd reaction there's a total power called at the one seven five zero zoo same wind 12.9 or visibility of one zero and light rain the soon to 3,600 all the cast so it does look like you're gonna have some problems trying to get into Provo via law VFR that's all the cast is in fact at 3,600 feet over November 5 for Zulu Roger we do have a mint also for some moderate turnouts the one that ratified as well as modern edgy and would appreciate higher courts as you go along and have a defiant the pilot continues for another 15 minutes when ATC again advises him of poor weather ahead November 1 to 5 for Zulu you can expect to encounter cloud conditions all the way to the ground approaching Wasatch Front November 1 to 5 for Zulu Salt Lake my voice is a little retro I just wanted to make sure that you did were aware of the weather deteriorating along your route 5 4 Zulu Richard Evanston altimeter to 9 or 8 3 13 more minutes pass during a handoff from 180 C sector to another radar indicates the pilot has descended to 8,000 feet 1500 feet below his intended altitude the highest terrain in the area rises to more than 9,000 feet his radio transmissions become garbled and broken by number five for Zulu I heard the part about the interstate though which pass you every five four Zulu ROG then 15 minutes later ATC loses radar contact with the airplane the last radar return shows the aircraft descending from seven thousand three hundred to seven thousand one hundred the pilot is flying Southwest along Interstate 80 near Wasatch Utah a few miles beyond Evanston Airport Wasatch elevation is six thousand seven hundred forty-two feet the airplane is only about 300 feet above the ground another nine minutes pass ATC cannot reach the pilot via radio but a controller manages to communicate with him briefly by relaying through another aircraft in the area Delma 344 did you attempt to relate to an aircraft before you go ahead I delta three forty four the callsign is November 5 Ford's Toulouse sticking raising I will remember five four theory Delta three boyhood okay we got it okay delta three forty four did you ask him which Canyon I try to fly through okay again okay Delta 344 I don't know if he can hear me or not telling me I'm going to check what approach to see if either one of those are passable and get right back alright he's gonna at receive either one loses half we'll get right back to you while the controller checks on the canyon conditions the pilot continues Southwest along Interstate 80 a witness in Colville Utah a private pilot himself would later report having seen the aircraft flying low and slow over the highway at approximately 12:15 p.m. according to the witness the pilot was flying at about 300 feet above the ground the ceiling was about 500 feet and there was light snow and sleet falling Galba 324 sully brand number 344 can you advise November 5 for Zulu the weather department is reporting level 3 our correction level 2 and level 3 precip in both of those canyons that they don't advise them to try it ok the weather Department is reporting level 2 and level 3 precip in those remember five for doing this you copy that for military 44 synergy had to responded 344 I don't 344 thank you I'll see if I get a blow out to the aircraft gotta suck now thanks for help ATC fries several more times to reach the pilot both directly and via other aircraft all of these attempts failed the airplane is still air board however flying lower and lower as the ceiling drops and conditions worsen when the pilot reaches the intersection of US Highway 40 he turns south and follows it toward Heber City at 12:26 p.m. a witness spots the airplane flying low overhead two miles south of the intersection according to the witness it is snowing heavily and visibility is severely limited two minutes later as two air traffic controllers are discussing the missing airplane a single radar return is recorded from the aircraft he's gone this one guy lost him on radar right about right there and I was trying to pass them some weather information saying likes calms down this code in case somebody can see if you know hey please like so you did too much yeah I can lost him when he got to about right here he was going to try to come through this Canyon and I was trying to tell him that the weather's too bad and don't even try it they're saying if he wants to try to go to Provo Canyon it's better it's not clear but it's better and there's icing and he's not talking anybody help I don't see a shoe oh yeah look there he is right there there's always still alive anyway I can't just like are trying to talk to him if he could talk to him either so well there he was briefly airborne the brief radar return shows the airplane at 7,000 feet located about five miles down highway 4 the elevation in that area is approximately six thousand nine hundred feet a mere 100 feet below the aircraft rich lines along the highway quickly rise to more than seven thousand four hundred feet shortly thereafter the local police dispatch receives an emergency call regarding a low-flying airplane near mile marker eight units respond to the scene but no aircraft is located according to police weather conditions are extreme near whiteout conditions in heavy blowing snow November 1 to 5 for zoom jolly cream remember went inside for you jolly radio check so ever one two five four Zulu solid gray Oh check you

Channel: Air Safety Institute

Views: 602,205

Rating: 4.8710194 out of 5

Keywords: asi, air, safety, institute, aopa, vfr, imc, accidnet, accident, crash, fata, airplane, plane, ntsb, faa, investigation, wrong, weather, wx, pilot, student, training, wings, credit, analysis

Id: bLmzy8ZPgtc

Length: 16min 1sec (961 seconds)

Published: Wed Jun 08 2016

Reddit Comments

[u/heifinator]

You need to go pretty far down the VFR to IMC rabbit hole to end up 100ft off the deck with clouds 300 feet above you in whiteout conditions.

Crazy stuff, saying no is the hardest thing we do I think.

[u/Striderrs]

TowerCenter tells him the weather ahead is shit. His response is basically "It's fine where I'm at lmao thx tho".

[u/freefalljunkie]

I appreciate these videos because they put the problem and bad decisions into perspective. Instead of saying "if you do this thing your not supposed to, this bad thing could happen" instead it's more of of a "here is a real pilot that made this mistake and this is the outcome". One of the more frustrating things for me with this story is, after he finally made the decision to turn around, then he crashed. He made the right decision, just far to late.

[u/Filldos]

ASI is going to have a field day with the Piper that went down in Bakersfield this past Christmas. hate to rag on a dead guy and his family, but this case should realllllly cement the VFR into IMC case into your head.

http://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.aviation/brief.aspx?ev_id=20151220X04641&key=1&queryId=926f5c5b-25c3-4059-9500-5dafca69e792&pgno=4&pgsize=200

[u/Mike12344321]

"VFR not reccomended"

"Okie Dokie Thanks for your time click"

[u/simplyfloid]

Acknowledging the tragedy here, I really appriciate these studies because it helps dissipate the 'planes falling out the sky' mentality and shows just how many chances this pilot had to save himself. You cannot stop a determined idiot from killing himself but you sure can indoctrinate yourself from becoming said idiot. Just like watching road rage videos and realizing that the risks/consequences aren't worth it, these accident studies remind me that at the first and definitely by the second hesitation, to stop and really think about the risks/worth of my life. As a bonus, I can build confidence in my skills and know that my plane won't just 'fall out of the sky' for no reason. I've got to work pretty damn hard to kill myself.

[u/nmcgovern]

Interesting video showing a VFR in to IMC flight, with terrain.

There were lots of warnings from weather briefers (damn, I wish we had those in the UK...), but the striking thing for me was the pilot's urge to "take a peek" and see what it was like.

In similar news, I've got my IR(R) test in a couple of weeks. Interesting minima apply - you can fly VFR under 3000ft, with 1SM (well, 1500m vis). Sounds a bit insane to me, less than 5km vis (~3SM) and I start to get scared...

[u/studentpil0t]

He made some bad decisions which cost him his life

[u/BigBlackHungGuy]

That weather briefing would have stopped me right in my tracks.

"Ok, gonna find a hotel and try tomorrow"