5 More Questions For Stephen Kotkin: Ukraine Edition
Video Statistics and Information
Channel: Hoover Institution
Views: 1,081,707
Rating: undefined out of 5
Keywords: uncommon knowledge, stephen kotkin, peter robinson, russia, china, usa, united states, america, foreign policy, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, nuclear weapons, history, Ukraine, Zelensky, NATO, EU, European Union
Id: ylaC0MUleZs
Channel Id: undefined
Length: 79min 1sec (4741 seconds)
Published: Fri Mar 04 2022
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I am still watching this video, but from the beginning this analysis seems off. I think Peter Zaihan had much more pessimistic analysis
Yes it was a great tactical intelligence scoop that Russia was invading, but strategically Ukraine was nether psychologically ready to bend over and take it nor was it materially ready to fight back. We strung them along with a non answer of NATO/EU membships and not negotiating some neutrality deal.
And what Biden did with that intel was not enough, some of it was stupid. Publicly shame Russia to not invade? They don't care about international feelings, they thought they were prepared for sanctions , a self confidant enough that it would be over soo quickly that there would not be enough time to catch them in their invasion pretext lie. Since the international community would be busy figuring out what to do in a world where Russia owns Ukraine.
Since it was not over quickly, Russia was able to limit the weapon systems Ukraine got as aid with a bit of nuclear saber rattling. Sure man carried missles are nice, so are guns. But they are not airplanes or heavy land equipment.
It may be bloodied than Putin wanted but as long as it is not too bloody to force an intervention, he might get away with it... as long as Russia does not go bankrupt.
Oh and telling China about the invasion plot. Is like telling the look out to be careful because there might be a burglar somewhere by.
What Russia and China understand that bad words and actions both hurt your agenda, but good words don't help as well as good action. So Biden saying stiff did not prevent war because there was no American actual followup, with actions.
Ukraine could have been a no fly zone before Russia invaded. You may say same risk as American planes showing up now. But in my case the bear is poking US. That is where the rhetoric and what you say matter.
But instead no matter who wins, Ukraine will be bloody.
I enjoy Stephen Kotkin, just had a different view of things.
This is awesome - really love the part about how Zelenskyy galvanized and reminded us of our collective western conscience.
Definitely recommend his book Magnetic Mountain too for those who are into history!
Been waiting for his take on this. I've not heard any other western scholar with the same knowledge of Russia, past and present.