2024 PALANTIR PRICE TARGET - AIP Explosion in 2025!

welcome everyone today I'm joined by Arie Tracy who is a really incredible member of the paler investor Community Arie has been detailing his research for paler has thousands of investors now on his newsletter and I'm sure at this point you've probably sent like over 100,000 emails Arie please introduce yourself to those in the audience that are that are unaware of your work I know it sounds weird but I really had to I I really sent more than 200 emails on paler so far and I'm you can really share a similar number of videos are actually even more since I've been following you since before the DPO not after the DPO but before so it's a pleasure to to be here for those of you who don't know me um I'm Arne I've I worked as a an equity research analyst and then I wanted to invest my own money because I will really want to grow as an investor rather than just sell saying people you should buy you should sell I really like the idea of leveraging what I do what I research to actually make my own decisions and to build my gradual approach of as an investor and with banteer in particular I found not only a company which was extremely hard to understand at first but uh that is is now gradually shaping my way of uh investing a few days ago I shared I arrived to the paler thinking I already know knew how to invest but in reality I really had to learn so many things change my way of thinking of things in a context which is way less static way less fixed than a normal company you would uh assess with volunteer everything follows the power low and the power low domain is everything but Linear by definition and if you are used as an equity analyst to live in an Excel word which is row and columns you can't really understand all the the nuances that are needed to appreciate a company like this one having you as you know a a Community member that has a background as an analyst and I think that's really important uh given given your perspective on the research that you're doing because as you said you've seen both sides right you've SE you've seen how the institutions look at these names and uh as you've said you've been involved since the beginning with paler which I think makes your voice very valuable as among among the others that were there towards the beginning and having that full context as we as we move forward in the paler story and and as you're saying seeing things develop how fast it's moving how the story has shifted from government to commercial from Foundry to AIP and what I really want to get started with is talking about 2024 for paler and specifically from a stock perspective so just for reference to everyone paler in 2023 had a 150% gain we had that really low bottom towards the end of 2022 uh where the stock had melted down the entire ire year and then bounce back significantly and I believe around May or so was the AIP announcement and paler was really booed by how well Nvidia was doing the AI boom and all of that which led to 150% gain from the year almost complete recovery from what it had lost in the prior year and a half or so and what I'm really thinking at this point we're into 2024 you know a few months at this point the Stock's already up 40% that came pretty early on with how earnings went and how strong that was and of course profitability was no longer a question mark at this point it's a reality and there are arguments about you know the the interest contributing to that and so on but but I think people have finally gotten gotten the message that Palante is no longer you know an unprofitable growth story and the growth has started to come back a bit so all of that leads me to believe that there are more eyes on palent here than there ever really have been before which I think is a good thing and also you know in the context of the stock market something to be a bit concerned about um considering you know could could this be a top for for paler and and to be clear just to put my opinion upfront I think everything that the stock has at this point is Justified but I wouldn't be surprised we see for 2024 or the stock finishing between 20 and $30 I don't think 2024 is going to be another explosive year like 2023 that's just where I'm coming with from from my perspective on the stock I think after 150% gain in the year prior you usually are going to see some form of consolidation and so what I'm thinking is 2024 for the full year is going to be much more of a performance Year from the actual fundamentals of the company that's going to help to see some consolidation between between 20 and $30 so I have a lot more points on that some some reasons that may happen and may not happen but I'd love to hear what you think about 2024 being being less of an explosion that we saw last year and more of a continuation just on the the performance side of the fundamentals well if we have to be completely Fair we need to say that we have already an explosive 20 2024 I wrote an article the beginning of the year underscoring well the story is improving so much and we have so many Catalyst that I wouldn't be surprised if despite the crazy rally we had in 2023 we would keep going higher because we have Titan coming in potentially supposedly but we got it the NHS was already in included but there there could be some potential follow-ups the S&P 500 the AI wave that is getting bigger and bigger and uh you know these things like AI could be seen as hype but as long as that produce real outputs and there is a feedback loop from companies wanting to deploy AI use cases emerging then you have further confirmations that CEOs can't be left behind so I believe the true um weak point in this AI narrative could have been like last year where it was very early but once you start having this feedback loop of McKinzie saying companies be aware you need to be invested very heavily in AI or you die then you have CEOs actually to to deploy AI you have companies upgrading all their research and development to actually provide some solutions that will be a a mess but that becomes like a full self-fulfilling prophecy pushed by a strong narrative that creates results and so on so once you have a an environment that is completely Dynamic you need to be aware of multiple Dimensions it's not like analyzing a railroad where in 10 years from now you you would still expect okay let's say a 10% growth because of this just follows the GDP plus or minus a premium here you is like you're playing a video game that has multiple layers and the environment keep changing so what you really need to do is assessing in each moment of time multi Dimensions we need to understand the dimension of the financials so that we are aware how the business operates then we need to understand okay compared with what the company is producing right now how much is that appreciated and then you need another layer understanding okay the environment is actually changing how are the numbers expected to change given the changing environment so this is why paner is not complicated but very complicated because larity as we mentioned before is not what we deal with we need to understand what are the signs of power so that we can grasp the changing reality in the best possible way the best things we can do is in my opinion doing what we have been doing so far for 10 years as you mentioned once you start studying a a company especially like banteer you are kind of confused but the more you study that the more you start connecting the dots and what you build is actually compounded knowledge I think the key reason why retail investors are to perform dramatically um institutional investors in understanding the strength of his company is because of the work we are trying to to do by keep studying the company keep leveraging everything we know discuss with other people what uh what's the reality apart from if we didn't do that we would be extremely confused and extremely behind so to get back to the 2024 we need to be aware 2023 was already crazy 2024 started okay and then we had the big explosion and now we have a big question mark will the explosion keep exploding or there will be like a calm down because yes the financials are quite rich but if the environment actually changes by changing the dynamic of the business in a very strong way what seems expens expensive right now would be completely seen as extremely cheap because if you have analyst expecting let's say actually this is a real number 20% growth for 2024 20% growth for 2025 20% growth for 2026 but but we have reasonable expectations given our compounded knowledge that these numbers are actually not that high then even if the stock seems expense expensive given the current fundamental then it is not really expensive in reality but that's why it is truly needed to understand the company how it operates how it fits into this changing environment and what are the key strengths so that you can have a sense that's the best thing that we can have to understand okay are there enough conditions given our component knowledge to see if uh this 20% growth actually makes sense or maybe maybe this 20% growth is really really underestimating the strength of a company which I frankly think it is the case yeah no that's that's uh super helpful to hear your perspective on that regarding I guess 2024 the way I'm coming at it from from a perspective of consolidation is more so from where we are right now March 18th forwards and and I'm not saying that we would lose that 40% we've gained so far in the year I'm just wondering as you said is like where do we end up at the end of the year and I I love your point about the community and the knowledge that's allowed retail to understand the story far ahead of Institutions that have been buying probably in the 20s instead of dollar cost averaging down in the in the tens uh where retail was going against the tide you know before paler has has now really gone viral and and I would say much more mainstream than it was before and now it's recognized as a pure play AI where previously nobody would really know even had even heard the name perhaps so so yeah I think the community uh aspects that you're touching on are are really important where we have software Engineers that are really able to comment on the specifics about the abilities of the product and increasingly so we even have uh paler employees commenting and posting on on X Twitter which either I think is super interesting there are a few that I that I really love uh hearing from and it's really great to hear you know Sankar even has gotten much more active uh less so replying and responding to to retail investors he sort of does his own thing but hearing that voice that wasn't really there before um is really great and and solidifying as you said the compounded knowledge is super important and I think that's going to continue to uh develop and and benefit us all but for my argument that I think going forward for the for the next nine months or so that paler will consolidate you know between 20 and 30 is I have a few reasons for that and I think a lot of the institutions have gotten into you know it's just my sense of things to where they feel comfortable and they're going to want to see further developments um before before potentially adding significantly to their positions and I and what what would a development look like that would allow them to you know significantly increase and I think that would be when AIP really hits its stride right now we know the boot camps you know the start of the sales cycle but I'm not sure if you have any insight into how long the AIP sales cycle is going to be I wouldn't imagine it's too much quicker than Foundry which we've heard is is around six to nine months or so and it's interesting because they do the work up front with the boot camps which I think may even delay the sales cycle a bit more and they haven't talked about pricing and that's certainly not settled yet so I think the effects at least on revenues have certainly been yet to be seen which I think is is a good thing right and investors are super excited about the growth uh from a customer count perspective and the potential you know revenues and I think AIP that that almost makes AIP much more of a 2025 story is where you start to see that really hitting in a way that's going to explode the numbers on a on a quarterly basis um and so I'm not sure what you think about that AIP almost getting those getting those numbers and increasing you know conviction and interest from that almost you know being a being a year delayed I would imagine from from what what they're doing with the boot boot camps currently well since the doesn't really provide full disclosure on what they do the best we can do is having a sense from what they say from what they shared for instance on on the letters we know for instance that more than 800 boot comps have been done so far at as of ipon but as of Q4 that number was around 500 so we are running at above 300 boot camps per per month CRA which is completely crazy compared with how it started and uh for for everything we need to understand what is the implication of boot camps and how boot camps are actually changing over time and what I see so is bootcamps are extremely effective to get a customer and we have seen that in the number of customers Rising but there is also a revenue effect already I think that is part due to the high interest for AI which makes customers less sens itive to the price they just want to have something that that works but unfortunately we can't really know too much what I would underscore that in my opinion is very very important is that the revenues from new clients is actually increasing a lot now we see around 20% Revenue growth so far but there is a negative side the negative side is that net retention is actually still let's say quite low at 110% meaning that the exting customers as of last year expanded on average uh 10% but on the flip side is that 10% from new customers is actually very high and if we see not only what is a boot camp but the direction of these boot camps that are getting faster and faster so more than 300 in one month and they done they this the last month and they did 500 as of Q4 if we just have a sense of this number it means that paner potentially can make more than 3,000 boot camps in a year even without assuming that they will develop an AI boot camp manager built on AAP which is completely a bot that automat automatizes everything almost I love that idea I love it that is already the potential to make a lot of boot camps and I would I I just made a connection before we we talked you know if we go into the financial numbers as of Q we have an intuition they got 103 deals of we of at least one million we know that they got almost 50 new clients and if we know that since they started boot camps to Q4 they made 500 bootcamps it means that okay let's uh make it simple more 250 bootcamps per one quarter so it means that with around 250 boot camps they generated 103 deals and they got 50 customers wow once you start connecting these informations and you think wait a second now the round rate of the boot camp is 350 bootcamps per month that starts becoming a real Revenue generator it's it's really like at this point can they can they show that over multiple quarters right because it's one thing it's like oh maybe everyone was super excited the first quarter are they able to demonstrate this you know at an Inc inreasing as you're saying that the more boot camps they do are they actually going to convert at that amount and that would that I I hadn't as you'd said gone through those numbers and really thought about it but that is a that's an incredible data point and and just to sort of wrap up my thoughts on the the 2024 story is I think what hurt us in 2022 and the growth overall was Europe you know Europe growth which paler has really relied on in the past is non-existent and US commercial is what's driving everything right now and so I think as I've said big 2023 to follow right and and the valuation needs to cool off in my opinion but the point against that are like let's say they do start the buyback below or around $20 which let's say paler inside knows if if these boot camps are are really leading to something significant which in my mind is is a little bit of a ways away but with the numbers you've demonstrated could be much sooner and if they start buying shares at or or below $20 I think that would make the stock a screaming buy given that they've been so cautious since authorizing the buyback to not destroy investors capital and we know that historically speaking companies that buyback stock really do it at the wrong times and I think meta had been an instance of that buying toward WS the top and paler seems to be taking a much more cautious approach so a point against my consideration of consolidation would be if we do start to see that buyback one quarter is they they add a bit of uh treasury stock or something like that and the other thing is the CEO confidence uh graph that I've seen you share a lot is is inflecting upward so it's not like CEOs and businesses are afraid of spending at this point and certainly that trough in 2022 and so I think this really is an interesting moment and if the stock you know doesn't react to increasingly better fundamentals in the next few quarters I think 2025 could be huge people don't piece it together it's going to lead to another explosive moment um assuming things continue the way they're going it's definitely very interesting times and of course we speculate like what is the stock going to do but but ultimately this is a super long-term story and uh it's just very interesting seeing the the data points continue to develop each quarter I'm very aligned with you with the idea I see that consolidation between 20 and 30 but it really depends on factures that we can't really control like NE neither as investors but neither Volante as a company like macro let's say something very bad happens to macro regardless of the numbers banteer shows if uh asset managers want to sell the stock drops that's that's the harsh reality but I have to say given the high interest for AI I believe there are enough conditions now that if paner drops for a stupid reason let's say a 10% drop just because Market drops or Nvidia drops then at this point I believe there is enough room for for conditions to make people happy to buy the Deep very differently from 202 because the big problem we faced in 2022 was this sentiment of a growth story that was uh gradually getting broken and broken and broken a similar feel feeling a sentiment which there is currently on Tesla fundamentals but the perception is Tesla now is a broken story if it is a broken story okay it distorts that if it is not that could be a massive opportunity paner was in that spot when it reached the bottom because it was perceived as a broken story but it was not a broken story actually it was a new story just at the chapter one ready to be Rewritten and now what I think we need to really think of is how is the story right now of banteer as a company and paler as a company operating in this bigger story of AI and then we need to use the fundamentals as a check so that we can have a sense I underscore a sense is the best thing we can uh we can have because if you want to be too precise here we screw up people who missed pante at six well missed it because they went to numerical and I personally made a mistake by triming the position in around at around 11 12 because I will I I was starting thinking to numerically we need to understand the evolution of the story now if we have a sudden drop is the story broken unless there is something really impactful for paner like P is a massive scam and a virus get completely destroys Apollo and all clients are infected okay that would be a serious problem but uh if the story keeps evolving in the positive direction it's like there is always someone who is willing to buy it so both from a retail side and institutional side I believe even if this is a qualitative assessment this is very true and something that helps the com the stock to have this floor and then you have also the optionality from the company as you mentioned with the BuyBacks if carp thinks it is opportune to actually deploy that cash to support the stock they can do that and especially in this critical moment I think carp really wants to preserve the happiness the stamina of the employees so that's why also we see carp being that confident but he knows he has a winning uh like a winning horse he can be cocky because uh he knows his horse is superior and when you have a person that is so confident there are only two choices he's a scammer he knows what he's doing and we hear an equal amount of both of those comments at least on my videos I uh getting an an increasing amount of a newer audience and I think that's contributed because of how well paler has been doing you have some new investors coming in it's always interesting to read a new retail investor comments uh you have him praising praising him as the next uh Steve Jobs and of course you know a complete scam like we don't even understand what they're doing what is he talking about that sort of thing um so let let's wrap let's wrap up this discussion on 2024 I really love everything you were saying I would love to you know dive into every point that you just made but let's actually take this and build off of it into what comes after AIP I want to talk about product wise leadership wise like is leadership going anywhere and and as you've alluded to Cashwise are they can be doing BuyBacks dividends reinvesting acquiring what are they going to be doing um so so thanks everyone for watching we will be back with this discussion tomorrow

Channel: Palantir Vision

Views: 20,981

Keywords: pltr news, palantir stock news, pltr stock price prediction, palantir stock price prediction, palantir stock predictions, palantir stock, pltr stock buy, bloomberg palantir, buy palantir stock, cnbc palantir

Id: sjVVO31wdKE

Length: 27min 43sec (1663 seconds)

Published: Tue Mar 19 2024