this is the most exciting and intriguing Hall of Fame ballot we've seen in a few years and it's because of some notable newcomers so let's just jump right in on those and this group of newcomers is headlined by atrian bele and I hate to say it because people are probably really excited to hear me talk about Adrien bele but Adrien bele for the sake of this video is not going to make for interesting content he is a Hall of Famer he is what I would call a slam dunk Hall of Famer he is going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer you know if you're a saber metric guy oh my goodness 93 and a half War wow that's good for 27th all time among position players and then if you're a traditional head a counting stats head 3,166 career hits wow that's good for 18th all time in all of baseball history there's just there's there what what else can you say here you know if you're uh an Accolade guy okay you're going to focus on five gold gloves and two Platinum gloves if you're a you know Advanced defensive metrics guy oh in terms of Fielding runs he's fifth all time behind only Andrew Jones Aussie Smith Mark balanger and Brooks Brooks Robinson so there's just really nothing else to say here this is a beloved unscaled player who you know had uh some inconsistency in his 20s and turned that into the model of consistency in his 30s will he be unanimous is truly the only interesting uh you know discussion in terms of uh his appearance on the ballot and I'm going to Le know you know someone's going to find some reason to leave him off and and maybe that reason will be he never won a World Series in which case I'll say great leave him off and you know eject Ted Williams from the Hall of Fame because that guy's a fraud too but that's really it that the only possible interesting discussion here with Adrien Bel is will he or will he not be unanimous otherwise there's way more interesting newcomers to the ballot in terms of content next up is Joe Mau and this is where I think things start to get a little more interesting because I think among fans I think among viewers of this channel I think among people who view baseball similarly to how I view baseball there's a very strong prow sentiment he's almost seen as a slam dunk in that same category that belr is obviously Joe Mau is a Hall of Famer they say and you know the argument can definitely be made pretty convincingly I mean look at these offensive numbers for a catcher a career 306 average 388 on base 439 slug that adds up to a 124 career Ops plus that has 13th among catchers or at least players who caught at least 800 career games and that war 55 War that's a lot for a catcher in fact if you look at jaws which integrates both you know his career War and the war of his peak season so his seven best seasons added up to 39 War he is seventh in Catcher Jaws he sandwiched between Yogi barar and Bill Dicky two of the all-time greats so obviously Joe Mau is a Lam dunk Hall of Famer and yet there's that part of me that says look an argument against him can be made and the argument is pretty simple if you look at his games played here he played uh made 885 starts at the catcher position 888 starts between first base and DH so I would put forth the argument honestly he didn't even quite play half his games at Catcher And so I've got a little bit of a beef with this you know his he had to switch off catcher because injuries particularly concussions so I'm totally sympathetic to that but if you look at these earlier in this first two-thirds of his career first you know let's call this about nine or so SE uh Seasons you know he was basically Johnny Bench right and then for this stretch right here where he's just playing first base and he's you know uh you know hitting 278 and he's got a 105 Ops plus playing good defensive first base but there's a huge difference between uh you know the value of a good defensive first baseman and a great defensive catcher he's he's five years of James Looney and sort of the irony of this is the five years of James Looney type production are going to help him get in because you know they for example let him stick around long enough to reach 2,000 hits which is an important Milestone if you're trying to get into the Hall of Fame so you know for me Joe Mau was more talented than Yadi AR Molina or I would say even Buster posie um but I would probably rank Molina and posy above Mau in terms of Hall of Fame worthiness uh because you know Molina obviously he caught a ton more than Mau posie still caught more than Mau and so you know people are viewing Mau is this all-time great offensive Catcher And I guess the only argument I can put against that is how much of a catcher was he really if he was only a catcher you know effectively for half of his career so um he's still a Hall of Famer for me it's just that I'm not necessarily gonna be like pounding my chest here like it's not you know there were points last year where where people were submitting ballots without Scott rowand on it and it was like oh Scott no Scott rolling bad ballot disregard this person's opinion and I don't necessarily feel that way about Joe Mau and look I don't think he's going to have any trouble getting in I don't know if it'll be first ballot but I don't think he's going to exactly you know scrape into the Hall of Fame in his final year you get 10 years on the ballot so he's got plenty of time to to build up uh to reach that 75% threshold if it doesn't happen this year so he's going to get in but I'm just saying I don't totally see him as the slam dunk h of Famer that that everyone else does although I do see him as a Hall of Famer I don't have doubts about that necessarily now it's time for Chase Utley now it's time for me to take a different tone I foolish Bailey feel very strongly that Chase Utley should be a Hall of Famer and what they're going to hold against him is the counting stats he did not get to 2,000 hits there's not a great record of hitters getting into the Hall of Fame without reaching 2,000 hits especially non- catchers like Chase odley Chase edley was the second baseman he did not become a full-time everyday great player until he was 26 so that's one reason why he didn't necessarily acrew all those counting stats but Peak Chase Utley was unbelievable look at this run here from 2005 to 2009 he was worth at least seven war in all five of those years and if you look here these are players with uh you know seven War Seasons uh since 1947 since integration Chase it Ley comes in with five all in a row mind you between 2005 and 2009 look at this company he's with Manel Frank Robinson Joe Morgan George Brett and then everyone else ahead of them everyone else with more seven War Seasons I I mean this is simply a collection of you know the greatest position players we've seen since integration so you know it's easy to put Chase Utley in that company just with some of those Peak Seasons he had Chase Utley a career 117 Ops plus hitter by the way as a second baseman here are all the Hall of Fame second basemen he would slot in right here right in the middle of this leaderboard in terms of Ops plus between Joe Gordon and Roberto Alamar uh defense was a big thing for Chase Utley and this is interesting because Chase Utley somehow someway never won a gold glove award and yet if you go by Fielding runs so that's going to use total zone for the good old days that's going to use you know defensive Run saate for the newer days so that's what Chase atley's stat is here he's seventh all time among second basemen he's one of the greatest defensive second basem of all time by those analytics and yet no gold gloves and this is where I start to really have beef with using using accolades uh stolen bases as well I want to point out stolen bases he only stole 154 that's not a lot I'll keep it real with you but the efficiency is unparalleled these are players with at least 150 stolen bases all time he's first in terms of stolen base efficiency he was successful on 87 a half% of his stolen base attempts throughout his career I think this is a no-brainer I think this is a slam dunk I think Chase hudley clearly a Hall of Fame player which interesting for me you know if you think about Mau right like he in terms of like the character Clause he's such a plus to plus plus guy he's so well-liked he's so well regarded same with Bel TR Utley to be honest with you just the way he played the game like kind of a tool you know but at the same time you know if you're a old school hall of fame voter right you're probably going to like that you're going to be like ah he played hard he slid hard in the second base and then if you're a new school guy like me maybe you won't really care about that at all but you will care about you know 65 War in only you know under 2,000 games and just uh look I mean look at his Peak he was just incredible and the efficient base dealing and and the defensive run saved and all that so it's an interesting case uh but to me no matter what Chase Utley is a very very clear Hall of Famer and I don't expect him to get in this year on the Bal but to me like yes absolutely yes David Wright another player who's an 80 on the 20 to 80 scale of popularity and likability he's up there with Mau and bele in that regard David Wright the whole kind of narrative on his career is wow David Wright was on a clear Hall of Fame Pace but then it just so happened that he played his last full season at the young age of 31 and then injuries and his career ended it was just a very sort of you know sad petering out oh the back injuries uh he what could have been he could have been a Hall of Famer and now that he's actually here on the ballot I think the same people who espouse that narrative are starting to think well unless he just is a Hall of Famer unless he is just good enough I mean you can get in on a you know a decade of being really really productive even if you don't do much else uh so yeah that's that's David Wright that's the position he's in lacks the counting stats because of that again not at 2,000 hits and honestly because of that I thought that he and Utley were going to be pretty comparable coming into this you know uh second base and third base are roughly the same value on the defensive spectrum they played at the same time they were great at the same time I thought they were immediately going to be pretty comparable and if we head over to the staad player comparison tool there's going to be a lot of stae head in this video just let me cook code foolish 20 uh you know we can see Wright is well ahead of him in terms of the rate stats offensively there's significant difference here between 133 Ops plus and 117 although Utley had more you know non- Peak later on years like think about him on the Dodgers for example he was still a good player but he wasn't you know that Peak we saw 2005 to 2009 when he was putting up hitting stats you know comparable to uh you know David Wright um but yeah then you know the hits both under 2000 but what's interesting here is there's a very clear separator in terms of their war and that is the defense because Chase Utley is plus 131 at second base David Wright negative 25 runs according to the advanced Fielding metrics which surprised me that is not the reputation he had in my mind and know I watched him when I was a kid in his prime he was a good defensive third baseman I wouldn't call him an all-time great but he was certainly good um and he won two two Gold Glove Awards although I've already kind of been on that Gold Glove rant so I'm surprised to see that the defensive metrics uh did not like his defense at third base that much and that's a big reason why he hasn't even cracked 50 War um in terms of War by the way we're looking here at uh third baseman through their age3 season uh sorted by war and we can see David Wright is 11th here he's tied with Scott Roland Scott Roland just got in and look at who he's ahead of he was ahead of Adrien bel's Pace he was ahead of Chipper Jones Pace he was ahead of uh NL arado and Brooks Robinson so yes you could definitely make the argument hey through about age 30 or so clear Hall of Fame Pace um but yeah and what's what's tricky here for David Wright is just did he play enough right because he had 6,872 plate appearances these are um hitters since integration with under 7,000 career plate appearances and you know you can kind of disregard all these guys like Campanella and Robinson and Doby and urban they they played in The Negro Leagues before that and then the white players they played pre-integration as well so really the only guy with under 7,000 played appearances to become a Hall of Famer is Tonio Lea and that was through the veterans committee so maybe that's the best case scenario for David right here because I don't love his chances on the writers ballot Just because he probably didn't play enough by their standards and I'm not even sure he played Enough by my standards either I think for me honestly it's a quintessential Hall of very good career from from a Hall of Fame caliber talent and there's a difference between you know Hall of Fame talent and Hall of Fame production I think he has the talent but I don't quite think he has the production so for me that would be like a quintessential Hall of very good career uh you know I'm willing to sort of evolve my stance on this issue I imagine he will stay on the ballot uh for the longish term that's that's sort of my guess but uh yeah that's the way I see the candidacy of David Wright I do think it it is that narrative where yeah he was on a Hall of Fame Pace until about 30 and not necessarily you know well what if he did enough through 30 that we can just put him in anyways so yeah that's how I see David Wright Baro cologne is my final notable newcomer to the ballot I'll cover all the other newcomers later so don't worry but these are the guys who I think have at least a snowballs chance of sticking on the ballot getting that 5% threshold you know to make it for a second year and the reason I think he's got a chance is 247 career wins it was a classic stat accumulator type career we've seen it with Jamie Moyer we've seen it with Tommy John there's guys like that they're just going to accumulate the counting stats of a Hall of Fame player and 247 wins is a lot of wins the kids will always remember Baro cologne as the funny chubby home run man later on in his career uh he did win a saong in 2005 with the angels to be honest with you he didn't deserve it I was probably Johan Santana's uh deserving year uh early on in his career though I mean just a flamethrower a freakish flamethrower with Cleveland hard to believe uh for some of you younger kids out there but yes that is very much the case does have a ped suspension on his record that was when he was with Oakland so that really you know hurts his chances as you can imagine uh if people do remember that that actually happened but if we sort here by WS these are pictures uh not in the Hall of Fame sorted by WS you can see you know we can kind of disregard Roger Clemens right because you know it's because of PEDs but he's up there with some guys right like like uh oh look at him and you know Sabathia who probably will get in look at him in Verlander who's definitely going to get in and then you know I talked about Tommy John I talked about Jamie Moyer you know he it's a pretty pretty tight company here to to win that many games right not a lot of players have won as many games as bolo colog but do I think he's a Hall of Famer I I think it kind of goes without saying no uh I don't think so his career ER starts with the number four for example uh would be an argument against him but uh yeah fascinating career Baro colone uh again for you kids out there you'll just remember him as the funny chubby home run man so the next category of players on this ballot are who I would like to call the saber metric Darlings these are players that are sometimes ignored by the more tradition traditional Hall of Fame voters but who a saber metric type perspective of the game would paint as a Hall of Famer or could potentially paint as a Hall of Famer we're going to start with Bobby Abu here because I think Bobby Abu is just happy to be here at this point unlike the next three after him he is not a threat to reach that 75% threshold for induction at least as things stand there's not enough of an upward Trend he went from 9% to 9% to 15% and he enters year five so he's probably going to stick around on the ballot but there's very little chance he gets in but man sometimes do you ever just go on Bobby abu's baseball reference page and say hm you know if you're like me you've probably gone to Bobby U's baseball reference page and just said hm 291 average 395 on base 475 slug 400 stolen bases plenty of accounting stats played 18 years over 10,000 pled appearances almost 2500 hits hm and and that's kind of where I stand on it I tend to vote for Bobby Abu on the mock ballot Just because it's kind of fun to keep him above 5% and keep the conversation going uh that conversation might include things like hey here are players with 10,000 plate appearances and a 390 on base percentage uh since integration wow what a great list of names and then Bobby abriu he has zero Hall of Fame Vibes but here he is or here's my most favorite and this is sort of like the fun platonic ideal leadoff hitter right uh how about the 2400 hit 400 stolen base, 1400 walk Club That's a classic Club but it's him Ricky Barry Joe Morgan Eddie Collins so uh yeah Bobby Abu zero Hall of Fame Vibes but just sometimes I go on his page and I just say h that's a lot of walks now these next three guys are going through a much more crucial phase of the ballot because they all made great gains last year and you know Roland who I would consider part of this crew got in and so the question for these guys right now like Andrew Jones like Todd hton like Billy Wagner is how much will the strong crop of newcomers to the ballot slow down that progress because this is a more crowded ballot than there was a year ago so in terms of Andrew Jones he went from 34% to 41% to 58% last year and now he heads into year seven that's pretty good for him right but will the new or slow him down uh the case for Andrew Jones Greatest defensive center fielder ever 10 goal gloves all in a row uh just ridiculous numbers defensively at the uh center field position and 434 career home runs if I just told you hey the greatest Defender all time at a premium up the-middle position also happened to hit 400 home runs and is not suspected of using Peds wouldn't that be a Hall of Famer you know hey what if this peak just so happened to to be between 27 to 34 and not you know 20 to 29 would that would that change your mind at all so uh you know that's that's my look at Andrew Jones I've I've kind of given that same Spiel uh every year since he's been on the ballot but uh yeah Andrew Jones he should be in the Hall of Fame uh will he be I'm starting to feel more confident but this is an important year for him Billy Wagner is heading into year nine on the ballot the limit is 10 so this is his second to last year on the ballot last year he had 68% of the vote which was a huge bump up from 51% the previous year so he's on a good upward Trend the thing about Hall of Fame voters and this is this has the potential to benefit Billy Wagner is Hall of Fame voters they're kind of cowards because they will absolutely leave you off for nine years for nine years they will say he's not a Hall of Famer and then when it gets to year 10 they'll be like unless so so he's got a chance at that there's there's a chance he doesn't make big gains this year and then he gets the Boost he needs to get over the Finish Line in year 10 but this is that crucial penultimate year on the ballot for Billy Wagner um as far as Billy Wagner's Hall of Fame case goes he gave you 900 Innings he was a reliever uh but man his 900 Innings I'll take his 900 Innings over anyone else's 900 Innings except for maybe Mariano Rivera like that's how dominant he was I recommend you all check out uh Jolly oliv's recent video on his Hall of Fame case it probably puts into words better uh you know his Hall of Fame case than I could right now Todd hton man he got really close last year last year he went from 52% of the vote to 72% of the vote you need 75 to get in so he was really close to getting in and the thing is as he heads into year six on the ballot you would generally expect any player that gets 72% the previous year to break that 75% threshold and get in and I feel pretty good about Todd helton's chances but as I said before there's some newcomers they're making the ballot more crowded and so it's just a general Trend a general question of if the sabermetric Darlings can continue to make gains when the competition on the bout is a little bit stiffer Todd hton played for the Colorado Rockies his entire career you will know me as uh you know many years ago a guy who campaigned very heavily for Larry Walker uh and Larry Walker sort of helped break that core stigma to some degree by getting in but Larry Walker played 30% of his career games at Coors Field Todd hton played 50% of them he was a one club man he did not play for the Expos and the Cardinals Like Larry Walker did uh and so you know with Todd hton thankfully even though he played in a very high offensive environment we can look at a stat like Ops plus which actually normalizes the league run environment so that 100 is always average and we can say hey Todd Helen had a 133 Ops plus where does that stack up well here are hitters with at least 9,000 plate appearances and an Ops plus of 130 or higher who are not in the Hall of Fame and we can just go down the list here Barry Bonds Manny Ramirez Peds A-Rod Peds Sheffield Peds Rafael Palo Peds you know puh Hol is going to get in Miguel Cabrera is going to get in they're just not on the ballot yet um so really you know it's Todd hton remains you know as as a nonp guy on that list um I think he's got a good chance to get in this year but the only thing that might stop him is some of these newcomers uh because you know people are going to be voting for Joe Mau and people are going to be voting for Adrien belr and people are going to be voting for hopefully Chase Utley so we'll just have to see I like his chances this year but I don't think it's guaranteed this next section of players is scandalized players these are players who in many cases are going to have Hall of Fame type numbers but they have been scandalized in one form or another and that's preventing them from beating in and we're going to start with A-Rod now a-rod's first year on the back ballot he got 34% of the vote and I thought okay that's fine that's a fine start and then his second year which was last year he got 36% of the vote and I was like uh-oh he has not girl bossed enough I've made a whole video about this on this channel he needs to be a girl boss to get into the Hall of Fame hasn't done it enough um does he have the Hall of Fame credentials besides the PD stuff absolutely I mean if you look at him just on the alltime war leaderboard right here he's between Ted Williams and Lou Garrett among all position players this is a guy you could easily make the argument Alex Rodriguez is the greatest infielder to ever play the game of baseball he was just so ridiculously good um but the thing about aod is and I do think this makes him different from say Barry bot and Roger Clemens who didn't get in either is that he got caught with the peeds when he really should have known better you know the sport had already had its moment had already had its Reckoning and he gets caught up in the biogenesis scandal after that that actually ends up serving a year-long suspension in 2014 which you know Bond and Clemens never did and look here's the thing when I fill out my mock ballot towards the end of this video I'm still going to vote for him because my sort of general rule is you know if you're a steroid user you have to be an all-time great to make it uh and he is by my personal standards he's an all-time great he's an inner circle Hall of Famer based on his statistics so I will give him that vote but uh yeah he not only did he get caught using steroids not only he get embroiled Within These scandals he did so at a time when the game knew better and he simply should have known better and another player in that should have known better category is Manny Ramirez he was so much fun he was a great player he's not on the level of A-Rod if you look at him in terms of the complete package because he was a pretty big negative defensively he didn't really steal bases but he just mashed he just raked like crazy looking at him in terms of Ops plus among right-handed hitters all time he's 11th he's 11th he's between Frank Robinson and Hank Aon on this list so that's the type of hitter Manny Ramirez was but it only adds up to 69 War nice because again the defense was pretty crappy the thing about man Ramirez is just a massive steroid cheat and I hate to use that word but he was a cheat late in his career you know this dude was basically addicted to getting caught using peeds at a time when he should have known better he was suspended for 50 games in 2009 he was suspended again in 2011 and that's twice in the should have known better era I just don't think this is necessarily excusable Behavior especially considering he was not an A-Rod level producer and look like I I'm definitely more sympathetic to guys like Bond and Clemens who were using when it was effectively the wild west and the league was not testing and they were turning a blind eye but he Manny Ramirez was using when the league was was not turning a blind eye towards this kind of thing and he was suspended multiple times as a result and I don't really know what to call that other than he was cheating you know I mean at a certain point you have to say this is not excusable Behavior man Ramirez was a chronic cheater uh but you know it doesn't take away from the fun memories or you know for the Red Sox fans loveed them and Cleveland fans love it doesn't take away the fun memories but I'm saying like he got older and he was like oh I'm starting to lose it I got to cheat and you know what that's going to keep him out of the Hall of Fame and I think you know what it's all right I don't love it but it's all right Gary Sheffield Gary Sheffield is actually not from that should have known better era but he was implicated in the Mitchell report and the Bal Scandal like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens this is his final year on the ballot and honestly with guys like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens you know off of the ballot and not even being voted in by a veterans committee last year I hate to say it for Gary Sheffield his inclusion on the ballot is kind of pointless these guys are in just a total holding pattern because if they didn't put those two in no one's going to put Gary Sheffield in and so someone is going to have to break the seal on these ped guys eventually if it's going to happen and it's probably going to be a veterans committee voting in either Barry Bonds or Roger Clemens or both is he a Hall of Fame player statistically of course he has 500 home runs he has 2600 hits he has a career 140 Ops plus of course he is it's the same with Manny Ramirez right but uh total holding pattern for these guys they're just they're going to get their votes that they usually get every year but they're not going to make gains and and because of that uh Gary Sheffield will knock it in year 10 he will fall off the ballot resign to the same fate as those who came before him Andy petett now among the sort of peed crowd he's somewhat unique because he admitted to doing it and he apologized profusely in public and mind you this was not like A-Rod where he got you know suspended for a year and basically had to own up for it like yes he was he got caught he got implicated in some stuff but really he went out there he said yep I did it which you know bonds and Clemens never did uh he framed it as injury recovery and it's it's sort of a shame that that happened because uh he would have been a really interesting statistical case if he would was clean I think especially considering his Sterling playoff record this is one of the greatest playoff big game pitchers ever alas he is destined to scuffle and that's sort of the Fate for these peed guys on the ballot they have their voters but they aren't really going to acrew new voters the same way the saber Darlings do Carlos beltron made his debut on the ballot last year where he gained 47% of the vote in year one that is a very strong debut that is the type of result you would expect for someone who's going to get into the Hall of Fame around year three four or five on the ballot and yet Carlos beltron is also scandalized he's not a peed user at least not suspected of being a peed user like the guys we just talked about but he is scandalized so despite the fact hey for the saber metric heads here's a guy with 70 War who did everything great played some nice defense out there in Center stole bases efficiently hey for the counting stats guys this guy had 2700 hits and 400 home runs like here there's a you know pretty clear uh you know depiction of what a typical Hall of Famer is in the form of Carlos beltron because of his involvement in that Houston Astros science stealing Scandal there are question marks surrounding his candidacy now here's my thing you know if I were a voter I wouldn't really care he was a player it was something that happened in his last year uh I know he won a World Series that year and that's sort of seen as ah the cap to his Hall of Fame career but honestly he was a Hall of Famer before he had that stint in Houston right at the end there where he won a World Series he he had just had a a great career overall um and I think you know he this here's a guy who's been treated kind of unfairly I I genuinely feel like baseball has treated this man unfairly and I think about you know the Mets hiring him to be their manager and then they mutually part ways as soon as this Scandal comes out and I think wow Carlos beltron is not a manager in Major League Baseball and he was a player on that team and yet I turn on the TV and AJ Hench is managing and Alex cor is managing like those guys were supposed to be in charge you know you know caros beltron you'll remember when the uh the original reporting on this uh scheme came out um it basically cited oh there was a there was a veteran hitter who sort of uh you know uh put the put the idea on the table and was a driving force in terms of you know uh getting this camera out there to steal signs electronically which was against the rules and uh that that player is is typically accepted as being Carlos beltron even though there's no evidence of that you know it could have been Evan gtis for example and so basically the idea is Carlos beltron is being punished not just for his involvement in the Scandal but because he was somehow The Mastermind of the Scandal and I'm here to say look dude he was just a player you guys probably need to get over this at this point Altuve is on Hall of Fame pace so you know if beltron can get in here you know that's going to give people permission to put in a guy like Altuve later by the way Altuve I've said this before if you look at the the data in terms of the banks he didn't he didn't really cheat um he was on a team that was cheating don't get me wrong uh but yeah that's that's Carlos beltron uh a different type of Scandal for sure uh compared to uh to A-Rod and compared to Sheffield and Manny Ramirez and yet here's my thing with Carlos beltron that I think is really interesting so he debuts at 47% right but what we've seen with these scandalized players is they have their guys who will vote for them and they have their guys who won't right and so they don't make gains they don't make you know Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds did not make crazy gains throughout their time on the ballot they they had their guys who would vote for them they had their guys who didn't and that was pretty consistent year-over-year so it's not like these saber metric guys like Andrew Jones and Billy Wagner and Todd hton who are getting fresh looks every year and they're gaining voters every year it's a different case so so for beltron I think you've got to hope for gains this year uh and I expect he will get in eventually but you know more crowded ballot there's a chance that this is sort of a year of stagnation in terms of his Hall of Fame candidacy uh we'll just have to see I'm a big supporter of Carlos beltron in the Hall of Fame simply because I I think this whole process has been kind of unfair for him and he clearly has at least by my standards Hall of Fame numbers go compare him to Andre Dawson he was basically a slightly better version of Andre Dawson and Andre Dawson's a Hall of Famer and no one seems upset that Andre Dawson's a Hall of Famer Omar viscel back in 2020 he had some serious momentum in terms of his Hall of Fame candidacy and his third year on the ballot he eclipsed 50% of the vote that voted very well for him for example Scott Roland it took him until his fourth year to break that 50% barrier and he got in you know getting 75 plus per in his sixth year so he was clearly on the way and the case was basically hey who cares about 82 Ops plus look at how many hits he has look at his gold gloves bam Hall of Fame uh and you know this is this this is a lot of hits 2,877 hits that would be the most hits any unscaled player would have to not get into the Hall of Fame so yeah he was he was clearly on his way whether you know you saber metric heads out there liked it or not uh and then he quickly became scandalized and and because of this his his candidacy is completely dead in the water so late in 20120 so this was mid voting cycle a lot of the writers had already submitted their ballots t i I think a lot of them probably would have liked them back back but his wife accused him of abuse of the physical nature this was in the late 2020 and then in August 2021 uh it came out that he had allegedly a sexually harassed a bat boy who had autism um and if you read the details of this they're they're pretty harrowing they're pretty awful uh so what we really have here with Omar viscel is misconduct uh in both his personal life you know with regards to his wife but also his professional life uh you know with regards to things that took place at Team facilities and because of this the campaign is totally dead and that's fine you know from a saber metric perspective he really didn't deserve it anyways but from a human perspective which is much more important uh it seems like and this is putting extremely likely but it seems like he sucks he really sucks and he you know does not deserve veneration uh at all uh so last year only only 20% of the vote again that's down from 50% at Peak and I genuinely think those writers who are still voting for him even though he statistically doesn't have a great case uh you know even though all of these terrible things have come out against him I I think what's happening is those 20% just haven't gotten the memo like does someone want to show them the newspaper or something I I don't know what to tell you I think these guys are basically like the guys who were still fighting World War II in the 70s you know just stop doing this come out and try to reintegrate yourself into society this next category of players doesn't really have a category these are players on the ballot who are not new they are not scandalized and they are not saber Darlings they're just here right now and we're going to start with Mark Burley because I am Pro Mark Burley for the Hall of Fame in the sense that he was one of my favorite players ever he has a whole video on my main Channel dedicated to him I love Mark Burley uh he was sort of a picture of consistency he did not really have a peak a Hall of Fame Peak he did not win Sai Young Awards he did not have insane Seasons but he was just going to go out there and he was just going to pitch a good game for you and so I think one way to describe Mark Burley is if we look at players in the modern game and let's say the modern game is uh you know divisional era since 1969 what does a great modern Ace Workhorse type pitcher will give you well you're going to want a guy who throws 200 Innings and who has a you doesn't allow too many runs so let's say an RA plus above 120 um if you look at guys with Seasons like that uh since 1969 I know this is like a really specific stat head search code foolish 20 but this is how I'm going to cook it up uh I mean Mark Burley had eight such Seasons like that is significant that is more than grinkie that's more than Smoltz that's more than sherzer that's more than you know King Felix uh that's tied with Kurt Schilling and Roy Halliday and all these guys ahead of him are Hall of Famers except for Clemens and you know that's a different case but yeah uh that's Mark Burley he he just gave you you know Ace like or Ace adjacent Seasons if you just sort by the war look how many four five six War Seasons he had uh it adds up to 59 for his career and I mentioned Andy Pettit earlier and it was such a bummer that Andy Pettit uh you know has uh you know he's in this sort of steroid peed bucket because he has a really interesting case and I actually think the version of Andy Pettit that that didn't you know use steroids is probably Mark Burley right because look look how similar they are in terms of War and the reason they're so similar in terms of war is simply uh they threw basically the same amount of innings and they had basically the same ra and they had the exact same ra plus so of course that's going to add up to the same amount of War they provided very similar value at least in the regular season so I have voted for Mark Burley during the mock balloting that I do in the past just to be very clear not a Hall of Fame voter I just fill out the the bid at the end of the video just to show you what I would do he's not likely to get in given that he has peaked at just 11% and he's entering year four but uh I'm a Mark Burley fan it's maybe not even the most rational opinion I have but I'm I'm going to keep voting for him if there is room on the ballot Tory Hunter you know I do this ballot breakdown every year and I have said very very little about Tory Hunter throughout this entire series but guess what he's still here for year three he got 7% of the vote last year and he'll be interesting to watch because if he falls below 5% he will fall off the ballot and that might happen given the influx of new names ryers can only vote for 10 players at a time so he could fall by the wayside while you know riters add guys like Mau and belate to their ballot so so he's he's on the bubble here I don't think he's got a really chance to get in it all but uh you know the interesting thing here for Tory Hunter is is he going to stay on the ballot Jimmy Rollins thanks to past performance on the ballot is in a more secure place than Tory Hunter heading into this year he was extremely well-liked both on and off the field he has the counting stats of a Hall of Famer to some degree because hey almost 2 200 hits hey almost 500 stolen bases he even has the accolades of a Hall of Famer hey four gold gloves hey an MVP award in 2007 then he probably didn't deserve but that's okay um so you know Jimmy Rollins uh Quint essential Hall very good the way I see the game at least the way I value players uh good chance he stays on the ballot for all 10 years of his candidacy but never gets particularly close to getting in Francisco Rodriguez AKA krod he got 10% 10% of the vote last year in year one that is respectable I got to think he is less of a threat to fall off you know with a more crowded boutot this year than say Tory Hunter fr Francisco Rodriguez krod through his age 34 season which by the way ag35 was his last season but through his age 34 season was the all-time save leader he was on Pace to be the all-time save leader he had about a hundred more saves than mariana rivera had through their respective age 34 seasons and saves is pretty much uh the beginning and end of of this Hall of Fame debate for him it's it's kind of how you feel about the safe stat how do you feel about the role of relief pitchers and closers in Hall of Fame balling in general in 2008 he had 62 saves that's the most saves anyone has ever had in a single season and if you look at the career save leader boards all time I'll zoom in a little bit to make this a little bit easier for you to read uh he is fourth and everyone ahead of him Lee Smith Trevor Hoffman and Mario Rivera are in the Hall of Fame so so that would be sort of the case for Francisco Rodriguez it's interesting to me because to some degree there are there have been relievers on the ballot who have fallen off the ballot who is actually maybe more in interested in like maybe Joe Nathan was a little more interesting to me maybe even Tom hanky who fell off way back in the day uh from the of Blue Jay's Fame was a more interesting maybe even more compelling Hall of Fame candidate for me uh yeah and honestly you know if you want to compare him to uh another reliever on the ballot to me even though he doesn't you know even though he has more saves than him uh he's not as good as say Billy Wagner you know and and for that you know from from my perspective then he's not a priority with you know with Wagner so late uh in his tenure on the ballot but uh again he has the saves and saves are a pretty strong predictor of Hall of Fame success for relief pitchers so so we'll have to see I don't think I'll be voting him uh this go around just because it's a more crowded ballot um but yeah uh krod you can definitely make a case for you can definitely make a case against but I also think you can make a case against any relief pitcher uh not named mariana rivera these are the rest of the newcomers to the ballot these are the players who I don't expect to get 5% of the vote and stay on the ballot these are the players who are colloquially going to be known as the one and DS however it is an honor to even be included on a Hall of Fame ballot you know it's not like every player who plays 10 years is even included on the ballot so there's a certain level of production needed to even appear so it is an honor simply to appear on the Hall of Fame ballot even if it's only for one year so we're going to go through and we're going to say one nice thing about these guys Jose Bautista there's a lot of nice things you could say about him rule five draft Legend uh known for the bat flip uh I known also known for playing for three NL east teams in 2018 and then after that trying to come back as a pitcher but I want to really talk about this seven-year span here with the Toronto Blue Jays where he was just hitting for a lot of power between 2010 and 2016 so a seven-year stretch nobody hit more home runs in Major League Baseball than Jose Bautista put that in your stat head Adrien Gonzalez the the quality of these newcomers and these supposed one and duns is pretty astounding these guys were all great players I can't I can't understate that these guys were all great players they all had great careers and I just want to take this time to celebrate them Adrien Gonzalez he was great with the Red Sox he was great with the Dodgers I want to talk about his tenure with the Padres because the Padre's don't really have a rich history of power hitters uh you know starting to see some new ones come along like tatis and Machado but just historically over the course of the franchise especially where they've played not a lot of power hitters these are Padre's hitters with at least 150 home runs and 20 career war in a Padre's uniform the only guys who have done it are Dave Winfield and Adrian Gonzalez Matt holiday a lot of nice things I could say about Matt holiday I could even say wow your sons are also extremely good at baseball Matt holiday had a fun career I think it's a fun example of you know let's say pre noan arnado you know and this is fun to say also in the year that Todd hton might get into the Hall of Fame a great example of can he do it outside of Kors oh yes he can he can immediately he had absolutely no problem doing outside of course career 131 Ops Plus in Colorado 138 with St Louis uh Matt Holliday retired with a tantalizing 299 career batting average uh which uh means we can't quite consider him part of the 300 Club but we can form a brand new club through stat head co foolish 20 how about 299 average 300 career home runs and 2,000 hits 27 guys have done it hopefully you can see those names for the most part these are Hall of Famers for the most part uh and Matt holiday is is part of their ilk so great career Matt holiday hats off to you and I'm excited to see what your sons will do Victor Martinez I wouldn't say these guys are my childhood like oh my gosh Victor Martinez was my childhood but I would say these guys generally are my teenag age year so there is obviously a lot of nostalgia whenever their names come up Victor Martinez catcher earlier in his career hit well enough to stick around as a DH in first baseman because this dude could seriously rake so let's look at hitters right here through the magic of stae head uh hitters with at least 800 games at the catcher position and two do career hits uh only 13 have done it Victor Martinez is one of them as is Joe Mau they're kind of similar in that regard in terms of the fact that yeah they were catchers but they weren't totally catchers their entire career um but Victor Martinez was not a good defensive catcher the same way Joe Mau was uh so yeah Victor Martinez great career hats off to you Brandon Phillips that dude BP himself we going to hit him with a similar stae head search we're looking here at second baseman with at least 2,000 career hits and 200 stolen bases and 200 homers not a lot of them have done it but Brandon Phillips has and the only other second baseman to hit hit those three marks Craig bigio Ryan sanberg Joe Morgan Roberto Alamar all those guys are in the Hall of Fame Jose Altuve probably on his way Jose Reyes great player played along David wri who's also on this ballot for many years Jose Reyes look at some of these stolen base totals especially earlier on in his career these are some insane Seasons he stole 78 bases in 2007 and because of that if we go on stae head here we can look at stolen bases combined between 2005 to 2008 he absolutely lapped the competition 258 stolen bases in four years that's 40 more than second place Juan Pierre it's about 70 more than third place Sean figin so uh just just a total Speedster total burner on the base paths Jose Reyes James Shields big game James I know some of you have a big smirk on your face already you're probably remembering a couple funny things that happened to him in 2016 specifically Bello cologne hitting a home run off of him and then him being traded from the Padres to the White Soxs for Fernando taas Jr hilarious right I get that but this is a James Shields respect Channel this channel loves and respects big game James because big game James was the Chad Innings eater and I'm not talking about a Chad Innings eater I'm talking about the Chad Innings eater look at this Innings pitched column here 200 Innings every year between 2007 and 2015 that column is featured in the original Chad innings eer Meme and let's focus in here on 2011 because in 2011 he threw 11 complete games for the Tampa Bay Rays that was the last time anyone ever threw uh double digit complete games in a season you can see here since 2011 here are the most complete games in the season hasn't happened since big game James and just with the general trend of pitcher usage in Major League Baseball I think you could make the argument he's going to be the last pitcher ever to throw double digit p uh complete games in a season like that is a pretty cool Legacy way to go big game James you're not just a funny meme because of Baro and Fernando tatis Jr it is time for me to fill out my mock 2024 Hall of Fame ballot emphasis on the word mock I am not a member of the bbwaa I am not a Hall of Fame voter if I continue to be a YouTuber there is a good chance I will never be a member of the bbwaa and I will never be a Hall of Fame voter I only doing this so I can entertain you and then you can yell at me in the comments that's the only reason I'm doing this so here are the 10 players I'm voting for and yes you can only vote for 10 players that is the limit some guys will fill out a blank ballot some guys will vote for no players these people are what we call desperate for attention um but anyways let's fill out our ballot and let's go alphabetically here uh I'm goingon to start with Bobby abrau now I've voted for Bobby Abu typically on this ballot and the whole idea is let's just keep him around and see what happens he has interesting statistical qualities that are that are adjacent to the hall of fame or reminiscent uh of a Hall of Famer and yet zero Vibes no one ever watched Bobby oau play baseball and thought yes I am watching a future Hall of Famer future Hall of Famer Bobby Abu no one ever really had that thought at the time uh but uh I am entertained by putting him on this ballot nonetheless so I'm going to go for him to start things off next I'm going to go for beltron and I want to apologize for my ranting and rambling when I originally talked about him in this video it was a little disorganized but hopefully you got where I was coming from he has a very clear statistical case to make the Hall of Fame and I do just generally think as the years go on this uh Astro Scandal will sort of Fade Into the distance and I also think he's just sort of been hard done by the game I think he should be a big league manager and he just kind of inexplicably isn't and I also think you know he was a player on on that team he kind of gets treated like he was a coach he kind of gets treated like he was The Mastermind he kind of gets treated like he's the only reason they did this and it's just kind of speculation at a certain point so I'm voting for CIS beltron he had a great career before any of that happened anyways uh so yes colis beltron my second check mark my next vote alphabetically as you may have already guessed goes to Adrien bele who with all due respect to his amazing career does not make for interesting content in terms of this video because he is a slam dunk easy set and forget Hall of Famer and I think pretty much every writer who gets a ballot is going to feel the same way so the only question here really is will he be unanimous my fourth selection is Mark Burley Mark Burley like Bobby Abu I have generally voted for him whenever I do this exercise every year and it's sort of the same thing right I don't think people necessarily watched Mark Burley at the time and thought I'm watching a future Hall of Famer but an interesting statistical case can be made I'm the guy that's going to continue to make it year after year he gets the vote as did Bobby Abu my next mock ballot vote alphabetically goes to Todd hton and I really hope this is the year Todd hton gets into the Hall of Fame I generally have a pretty good feeling about that and I got to admit I was actually kind of a later convert to the Todd hton Hall of Fame case because at the time I was really focused on Larry Walker I was kind of had Todd hton on the back burner in the back of my mind and I don't even think I looked at how great some of his Park adjusted numbers are so I apologize for that I haven't always had Todd hton I haven't been Todd hton since day one but I've been Todd hton the last few years and uh he was at 72% last year so hopefully this is the year he break 75% and he uh gets into Cooper town next up is Andrew Jones who I have been all in on since day one I of course grew up a Braves fan so there's a little bit of personal bias there but uh Andrew Jones I've said it once I'll say say it again greatest defensive center fielder of all time 434 career home runs you know it's not quite adding up here for me can we get him into the Hall of Fame please my seventh selection goes to Joe Mau in his first year on the ballot and I hope I wasn't too harsh on him I kind of shared my take about this on Twitter uh earlier and I basically had a lot of twins fans being like hey Bailey have you considered that you're the worst person ever and that I hate you for even suggesting that he's not a total complete slam dunk Hall of Famer look I'm still voting for him and to be honest with you whether I'm right or wrong you're still going to keep watching this garbage number eight is Alex Rodriguez the girl boss himself it's kind of a futile effort at this point I mean Barry Bonds didn't get in Roger Clemens didn't get in Alex Rodriguez is going to continue to get 30 40 50% of the vote but no real shot to get in no real positive forward momentum for his campaign despite all of his girl bossing my ninth selection goes goes to Chase Utley baseball Riders please just get this one right I don't ask that you do it in his first year on the ballot because unlike you I don't care about the difference between a first ballot Hall of Famer and a 10th ballot Hall of Famer I'm just saying give him a good strong first year set him on the right course to later induction just get him in please he was a Hall of Fame player and finally to wrap things up is a player who got 68% of the vote last year but is running out of time this is his ninth year on the ballot Billy Wagner one of the all-time great relievers I'll take his 900 Innings against anyone's 900 Innings asterisk except for maybe mariana rivera so that is my 10 that is the limit feel free to yell at me in the comments below and tell me that I should drive my car into a river now as an update to last year there were three players I voted for last year that I didn't vote for this year one of them was Scott Roland who got in great one of them was Jeff Kent who fell off the ballot did not get him and one of them was Francisco Rodriguez AKA krod he's sort of a victim of the 10-player limit in this case not a priority for me with guys like Joe Mau new on the ballot and guys like Adrien beltree new on the ballot and guys like Jas Utley knew on the ballot and Billy Wagner getting to those crucial final years so so sorry krod you know in a weaker ballot in a weaker year he probably gets my vote but not this year so now it's time for predictions I've given you my opinion I've told you how I would fill out my hall of fame ballot but now it's time for me to analyze really get inside the mind of a typical Hall of Fame voter to determine what I think ultimately is going to happen during this round of balloting we'll start with Gary Sheffield as it is his final year on the ballot and I'm just going to tell you right now he ain't getting in he ain't getting in Roger Clemens didn't get in Barry Bonds didn't get in he's in the same category just less impressive career overall uh there's no Ford momentum as far as his candidacy he's not going to get a year 10 bump the same way a lot of uh players who are perceived as clean are going to so yeah no shot Gary Sheffield gets in uh sorry to all the Gary Sheffield enjoyers out there okay now for Adrien beltree obviously he's going to get in but the question is is he going to be unanimous and my opinion is no I I think one or two people will leave him off let's say he gets you know easily 95% of the vote but I don't think he's going to get to that full 100 they're going to hold something against him uh you know there's going to be a guy who's like oh I don't think anyone on here is a Hall of Famer because they played during the steroid era or there's going to be a guy who's like I don't think he's a Hall of Famer because he didn't win a World Series or there's going to be a guy who's like I don't think he's a Hall of Famer because uh he wouldn't let Elvis Andrews touch his head there's always some sort of reason there's always some sort of weird gripe or or grand standing I don't know how to describe it but I genuinely think the next unanimous Hall of Famer will probably be Albert Pool that's that's sort of the way I see it so Adrien beltree let's say 95 plus% easily but I don't think he gets that full 100 obviously he's getting in first ballot and that's what's going to be what's fun Todd hton he got 72% of the vote last year can he get up to 75 and what is ultimately a much more crowded ballot I think so I think Todd hton gets in this year he has a lot of positive forward momentum in terms of his candidacy and I think this is the year Todd hton will enter the Hall of Fame alongside Adrien bele now in terms of the other saber rck Darlings Billy Wagner and Andrew Jones those guys have also been making big gains but I think this year we'll see more modest gains so we will see modest gains Billy Wagner he's got a chance to break 70% here without getting in I think he'll be kind of a borderline guy the same way Todd hton was last year so I think it's modest gains for Andrew Jones and Billy Wagner as they get you know closer and closer to that 75% threshold I don't think they get in I think it's modest gains compared to what they've done the past few ballots we've talked about belr getting getting in but I think as far as the rest of the newcomers go I don't think anyone else will get in I think Bel will be a first ballot Hall of Famer in this class and that'll be it so I think among the newcomers I think Joe Mau will probably get the second most votes I think Chase Utley will probably get the third most votes I think David Wright will probably get the fourth most votes with obviously Adrien beltree leading the way I think they'll all stick around David Wright is maybe closer to borderline in terms of that um but I think Utley and Mau they do you know they put up respectable vote totals here they get themselves into a position to hopefully get in later I'm really hoping that for Utley as you can imagine Mau I think doesn't have as much to worry about he will get in it's just simply a question of when so again basically I think Joe Mau gets in pretty comfortably it's just not going to be on the first ballot I think Chase Utley might get in by the skin of his teeth but he might have to wait for like the eighth or the ninth or the 10th ballot so it's going to be sort of a longer more arduous candidacy for him and then David Wright as far as this year goes I think he gets to 5% so I think he sticks around but I don't think I can say the same for Barta cologne I don't think he'll stick around I think he'll fall off this ballot and then finally one last prediction and I think it's kind of going under the radar a little bit here but I think Tory Hunter is in severe danger of falling off with the newcomers like Mau and bele and Utley and Wright attracting a lot of attention so I'm going to say Tory Hunter who got 7% of the vote last year I think he falls below that 5% threshold and this is his final year on the Hall of Fame ballot it is now time for my annual shout out of the Baseball Hall of Fame vote tracker headed by Ryan Tibido and Co this is basically a tool that's going to give you a preview of the results you don't know the exact results but a preview of the results before they are announced next month in January to find out who could possibly be joining Jim Leland more on him later in this year's Hall of Fame class so just a preview uh the 400ish writers who vote on this every year have no obligation to make their individual votes public and yet many do about half of them will before the total results are announced uh and again this Hall of Fame tracker team led by Ryan Tibido what they do is they tally up those public votes and what you'll see is sometimes players have big splits between the private votes and the public votes so you know the the the guys who are more open to publishing their ballot maybe they're more proud maybe they're better at voting maybe they're going to be more likely to vote for the saber darl like Billy Wagner or Todd hton or Andrew Jones so sometimes those guys have big splits like Todd hton and granted this is only through 19 votes so it's a very small sample size Todd hton sits at 90% he's not going to get 90% of the vote this year we're hoping he gets like 76% of the vote this year so you know that's not the goal right now but um yeah so uh co go check it out especially as the week drag on and more public votes are added to the tracker because you can at least get a preview at least somewhat of an idea as to what is going to happen before the results are announced next month and so what's interesting for me here is I've already made my predictions is I'm kind of you know I'm kind of Flying Blind a little bit because I can only go off 19 public ballots with only you know that's only 5% of the total electorate and as a result you know I can't really draw any significant conclusions from any of the data here but as we get closer you might be able to so the question is who will be joining Jim Leland in the class of 2024 because Jim Leland has already been elected he was elected via a veterans committee during the winter meetings this year now last year when I published this video I was actually able to go through that Year's veterans committee vote which was on players and give my opinions on each player and I actually got one part of my prediction right which is that uh Fred McGriff got in now I did not make a prediction again Jim Leland the vote has already happened he's in but I'm really stoked that Jim Leland got in because of all the manager ERS and Executives and umpires on this ballot he was sort of my guy he was the guy I wanted to see get in which was interesting because Jim Leland was not the best manager on this ballot by total wins he was not the best manager on this ballot by World Series wins or winning percentage but he was my personal pick and I'm super stoked he got in with 15 of the 16 votes on the veterans committee um and honestly besides luk Panella who got 11 out of 16 so he just missed none of the executives or or umpires got particularly close so you know congratulations to Jim Leland you know in addition to winning a World Series with the Marlins uh w a pennant in both leagues which is a really cool accomplishment and also I think this is a nice little bonus managed team USA to their first and so far only World Baseball Classic win and finally I've got to say this is my last video of the Year this is the last video you'll see for me in the calendar year 2023 it has been a little bit tumultuous year for the foolish baseball and foolish Bailey brand mostly because it started with my main Channel foolish baseball getting hacked by Elon Musk himself if you know you know so I'm going to take this time to point out I do have a patreon you can join for $5 a month and get access to a lot of exclusive content especially exclusive content that has been backlogged so for example in November I did a Q&A and these q&as are typically about an hour to an hour and a half and I have dozens of them so there's just hours and hours and hours of exclusive foolish baseball content on the away I also give updates work in progress updates on what I'm working on and when I don't do a Q&A I will do you know some sort of exclusive video content instead so here's one I did about Grayson Rodriguez in September uh so yeah please uh check out the foolish baseball patreon I will point out you can just join and then uh your card won't be charged until the first of the month so what you can do is you can just join check out what's on there for a few days see if you like it or not and then if you don't like it just cancel but yeah it's been a it's been a tricky year for the foolish baseball and foolish Bailey brand and I really appreciate my patrons who have been a source of consistency for me in what have been inconsistent time so thank you all for watching this thanks for watching the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot breakdown I will see you in the new year
