1983 Federal Election Counting

next while some interesting figures in color yes Julie I'll just recap at this stage we've got the the opposition having one lion seats but quite confident they actually have them tucked away in the break we've heard that they're they're claiming to more Collier and MacArthur in New South Wales and we looked earlier first is that here the seat a sitting member is sandy Mackenzie a national party member and Simmons the ALP candidate is a a teacher they get better people and see third run up the surges third one is quite well known now and what is riding on of course is two factors as the well is the decentralization when it's been put into the bath of storage area had lifted their urban right but also they've been hard hit by the drought up there and I think that is washing off a bit on sandy Mackenzie I'd say on those figures that wave is entitled to Felix well and I wouldn't put it into my absolutely one figures but I that's sure in there about 95 percent chance don't you think so doc I don't you know because there's still a lot of country votes to be counted and they'll go heavily in favor of sandy Mackenzie and people in the country who vote Democrat I think that a sent their votes essentially would go home to country party once coming to us I still that pulled that from a very doubtful max an announcement at the moment he's in room 301 hundred of his close friends he's probably returnee Eggleton at this moment and looking over the community computer analysis of the seats in this wing so far but we're expecting him to walk through this door any minute when he does cross back to you and hopefully we'll be able to talk to the Prime Minister back to you camera okay Joe thank you Andrew peacock said a short time ago when he was here that he could not see that Labour had 111 seats he was concealing I think something like five David Butler but you can see ten well almost figures on the scoreboard that seems to be a perfectly adequate margin for labor to claim that it is gain but in New South Wales case turn in South Australia bendigo Casey Flinders and deacon in Victoria Bowman and Herbert in and that people may not know yet about Herbert in Queensland and Kaleo and Phillip in New South Wales that's ten seats and then if he would challenge Diamond Valley and it is obviously possible at Neil barn could bit up if all the postal votes went his way but it looks to me as though Diamond Valley is going to make the eleven seats labour looks quite handsomely ahead in Eden Manila in New South Wales and labour looks handsome ahead in Petri in Queensland so that gets to up to if those are there get to up to 13 seats and that's without the West where there are six potential changes and four ones that really look likely changes so I don't actually add up one from the waster even you picked up one from the West they're there and obviously no one should give it away I don't see any reason why the Liverpool should give away until they a little mores happened but on the other hand I don't see why people are trying to make sense of numbers should give away a prediction which seems to be based on fairly solid figures ok well let's have a look at some of those seats now some of those marginals again bring you up to date with them and David if you could just comment on them for Stan and Valley in Victoria this is a key one and if the Democrat vote where to go heavily of a neo bomb he could still win but you see on those figures that the Labour Party is 500 votes ahead and with sleep over three-quarters of the votes counted 77% infect yes right the prediction that there doesn't even know absolutely neck-and-neck and so I think it's perfectly fair for Andrew peacock to said we shouldn't have called it for the Labour Party at that stage it is an open seat Peter Faulkner's seat Casey and Victoria well that does look as though it's gone there are 1300 majority there are 5000 Australian Democrat votes and it seems quite a strong sense that Australian Democratic preferences in Victoria in particular will go rather more to labour and then they will otherwise and donkey votes also help them in there and nearly all the votes in there eighty three point three percent yes okay we move on from Casey and have a look at Oxley in Queensland first time we've seen this siege well this is just saying that Bill Hayden is handsome a home in the only seat that Labour held in the 1975 landslide but it is obviously more than two to one majority there I think he must he might have got quite a sympathy vote you might have want a sympathy vote but anyway he was very well entrenched there only a swing of 2.4% the swing in Queensland to the whole is about that level the swing over the whole of Australia is remarkably even except for Tasmania it's between two and four percent in every state and average of two point three percent except for Tasmania whether the three percent swing against the Labour Party in favour of the Liberal government there's no doubt about Griffith in Queensland there's no doubt about Griffith in Queensland down ALP holding that very nicely indeed let's have a look at the percentage on Griffith perhaps or or move on to the next seat like out okay thank you that's like a lorry it's fairly obvious there I think that the minister of a science mr. Thompson is in trouble that seat will probably go to the Labour Party and it's certainly one that they they wanted to win very badly well I'm not quite as sure as Laurie is that this oddities in my car there's a very large average population that will be a late vote and that may will favour provider candidate but they'll also be large rural vote that might focused upon side lodbrok Linebaugh what about Kennedy Russell Oh mr. kenter's not been in trouble in Kennedy since he ever the Parliament he wants to leave us long time ago was a Labour store know what's interesting tonight is that Herbert and Petrie and like art in northern Queensland halls gone on the margin of going over this is nearly where labour once was strong it drifted away and they were no longer almost ceased to be marginal seats and now they've come back at least into the marginal category and I think that is Virgil doubt that Herbert has gone and quite like Peter in my car as well McPherson looks safe for the government and the person in Queensland yes McPherson is based on the Gold Coast it's got a lot of a lot of Victorians who've moved up to take advantage of but jumpy Peterson's below tax policy and I think that there was never any death liberals at all to see by dou P dou have done better than they did from my recollection last time but that's a that's quite safe for television okay what's happening in Queensland overall as far as you can see and overall the moment there are these northern cities are going as quite a reasonable swing in average swing in bourbon you know I think there's a the I think these three northern seats would you move much more than some of the other ones in the West do stand out beats a and Herbert and I card the other thing that's happening there is that mr. Bonner is doing rather well in the Senate he's getting point seven of a quota and it looks quite likely is there with Democrat help because they're only getting point six in the quota Jim Bonner may be back in in canva as an independent senator I don't know whether he'll support her port government or really be on the such steel with his old friends and Liberal Party certainly senator bonacic has been a very popular figure in Queensland the Liberals I think made a mistake when they dropped him from number one on the ticket and it was fairly inevitable I think that but have you got ahead of the Democrats he would pick up their preferences and go into the Senate as an independent the Liberals are only getting one point three of a quota themselves I think Amari will take this short break now on network tens election coverage and be back here at the tally room and Canberra very shortly there Jade Jade orbital John Dawkins he'll hold that quite easily and in spawn I the Labour Party should also continue that one or two homes below we have convinced Kim Beazley the Kim Paisley should halal that Kim vaguely be a chance for the ministry would leader Stern is he's one of these one of the people on everyone's list Maxo can we talk generally about Western Australia because it was the state election result in in Western Australia a couple of weeks ago that made the Labour Party feel as confident as they are and as far as they went into the election I had a 7.8 percent swing delay but no way in the world that kind of swing will be repeated perhaps you should talk to Tom chip he was there I was there the day the election was announced and I was approached by several West Australian businessmen all members of the Liberal Party who told me that the Liberal Party which stick was wrong and that their view was that the state Liberals would win but the venom against the federal Liberal Party and Malcolm Fraser was such I've never seen now when the results of the state Liberal Party at Liberty State election came out the 7% 8% swing against the state Liberals it would be logical and there's no you can apply logic to politics but be logical to assume that they'd lose at least five seats in the federal election now unless there's been a swing back in the last two weeks and I believe there has been a slight sleep swing swing back I would think that four seats at least are at risk heavily at risk in Western Australia mr. O'Connor in fact asked mr. Frasier to stay out of the West Australian campaign which is an indication of what he thought the federal issue effect would be in his election well that's true what it was for on federal issues what we have here just come up a lot theaters to put where of course labor has a dream candidate in Rick charlesworth is a form of cricketing caps and will be happier of the hockey team they've just being adopters use you have to get a few votes really in the electorate and but I'm sure that this is there we'll see Rick Charlesworth win this particular see if they don't labor won't win anything in the West and here's sterling come up with a very early power of the vote their environment of course the the Minister for death defense supply full a minister of industrial relations and he's wagging bit here what's the the ALP candidate there it which what's his background Paul do you know and no I don't know too much about him but he's very well thought of in the Western Labor Party and regard as a there's a moderate fellow with a broad electorate appeal so I would be as favoured by the party to to do well as a candidate and I think on those you know they're only preliminary figures but I would be very confident of sterling with candidates like English I work must say that of although the Labour candidates the Western Australian ones stand out as being the best-looking on paper I don't know them personally we can having gone through all their biographies or a singly impressed but the quality the candidates are putting up in the West and Brian Burke interestingly said that was a very big factor in their state victory I admire also as a federal minister whose star is definitely for well that's true just do we go away from Perth for the moment Andrew peacocks rejoined us as he walked past me claim that the live liberals and retained Diamond Valley perhaps we could call Diamond Valley up and have a look at our figures and because I've we'd written them off yes I can't write Neal Brown off on the day's figures why not the 909 votes there are dlp votes 90% of those will go to Neal Brown the postholes will normally favor him that's going to be a cliffhanger right to the end I do not write him off the other candidate there is DLP right now we should also have a look at Casey because excuse me Rex yes we're now crossing to Melbourne and I believe Peter Harvey nears office and watching your program and saying that you were almost writing me off and I knew that my vet was going up and in fact last time I had an absolute majority of 50.6 this time it's about 52% or a bit more and the booths that I always associate with being most typical of the national average holding very well for the government I've traveled as you know around all the marginal seats in eastern Australia and I thought they were holding up very well for the government and I'd still stick by that so just stage I certainly wouldn't think the government is in the series degree of trouble if some people are saying this wasn't those earlier judgments were made on the basis of the figures that were apparent at the time extreme degree of volatility if you had to put a figure on there what will the Fraser governments win bar it's obviously gonna be tight it's gonna be very tight either way but I would expect to phrase the government to have an arrow at work for majority thank you very much right okay Jim thanks Peter Ian McPhee talking to Peter Harvey in Melbourne and while they're saying it's 50/50 we're saying it's a Labour win and we hope to be crossing and those seats have not fallen therefore the government has not lost and it's all very well labour figures mean coming in here and reeling off 15 seats but conceding themselves that within of them four or five are doubtful having run around the country saying that all week they had 20 odd lastly have you know shifted your ground though you were telling us earlier the night that you were going to win are you still sure you're going to win or you're just saying you're not sure there you go to lose I'm saying I'm worried point one point two 11 have not fallen so we asked to in government at this stage max has used the expression it's closing Western Australia that will be the determinant probably you certainly cannot say the government is former what we could do it goes through the siege which labor claims the first they've claimed his button which is in New South Wales where Gary punched the young mere of of the area has got himself a big early lead and I've got no doubt that mr. punch will win Babel where take them off the board there you concede that to him one by one you so they concede that the next one is Kolya which is the of course as a country seat held by Sandy McKenzie and set it on better storage and I will not concede a country seat with so many more votes to come in that's what about forty thousand with about 30,000 votes to come in I'm not going to concede a country seat on those figures a couple of thousand behind no well he's not a couple of thousand behind but River Rina which is the third favored country suit well it there that's interesting because the labor fight is quite confident concede that because I think they've got Broken Hill sewn up but on those figures which are off the board here in the tally room on those figures mix that's twenty-eight thousand votes out a 70-yard very I will not concede that see I couldn't could see it myself so you're in front but the information on riverine is on much more up-to-date figures in there I mean 28,000 votes and we're about four thousand ahead so how can they say they've got that said well then I'll send it MacArthur Ike you weren't here we had a look at MacArthur last time you can see that what's happened there is the ILP now has over fifty percent of the primary vote that's what about 3/4 for the votes counted oh yes don't like it don't like it well I won't press you further but I'll try Aidan mineirão now later puts this in its maybe area and absolutely that's all I could put it in us maybe that cedars of risk and no more than that again that all the light quality will say the Murray Sainsbury as we've said all night on the seat right out well how about the Philip which is of course going to be a close one but I don't think that Jack Boone is going to get to get this member sojanet because you've been aging ahead all night there have a look at it look how close it is now someone really going to sit here and concede that seat it is as close as that with more votes to be chaotic that seat is not won by the Labour buddy yet however we're not looking at the same figures that we're looking on the Labour Party completely at the electro lovers fingers near the ones that count we're got Carling boost figures in with a mutton almost complete tally so you know we're not talking about it we're not comparing apples and apple I've only got two certainties those man alright I'd take we are all these eleven self out the tea kettle I think Alan Thicke over there to put it Marvell sure he's gone I think Ellen's in trouble where to put it Chisholm same thing I mean well the Democrats baby a deal P go all across let story brings it up to about twenty eight thousand he still two thousand behind yeah and if he gets 60% of the D or the Democrats preference does he speak that up that's how close it is there you see you can't concern about seventy percent okay no dams that is very significant work well come back later and continue the list but it shows now therefore this is you know Andrew peacock and we'll continue our argument during a commercial break then return to film it up in the final count

Channel: Malcolm Farnsworth

Views: 11,842

Rating: 4.8666668 out of 5

Keywords: 1983 Federal Election, Malcolm Fraser, Bob Hawke, Don Chipp, Paul Keating, Ian MacPhee, Andrew Peacock, George Negus

Id: OxMc9HDy7a4

Length: 17min 40sec (1060 seconds)

Published: Mon Mar 04 2013