馬凱碩與夏偉對談 美國與中國以及全球秩序的未來 習近平和以前的領導人不一樣?!【國際360】20240403@Global_Vision

good evening everyone and welcome I'm so delighted to be here tonight to moderate what we are sure will be a lively discussion on us China rivalry the future of the and the future of the global order um as H noted I'm R Daniels I'm the managing director of the Asia Society policy Institute and before I turn the conversation over to both Kore and Orville for some thoughts initial thoughts on us China competition I do want to talk a little bit about about where we are right now so over the last let's say 25 years there have been so many changes in this us China relationship in part because these countries have changed so much over 25 years um with China's entry into the wut with the process of globalization kind of turning forward much more speedily from that engine um there's really been a a a shift in the balance of power in Asia and there have also been numerous kind of new opportunities and challenges created by that process of in economic integration but also the technological Revolution that we're all experiencing they really changed the way these two countries see each other um and see their place in the world so we're in a period now where the US China relationship has gone from being on relatively Cooperative footing um under the George Bush 2 Administration under the Obama administration's process of diplomacy the Strategic and economic dialogue to really facing a new set of um irritants and challenges in the bilateral relationship um some of those challenges have to do with you know China's shifting system as China kind of goes up the economic value chains and starts to prioritize things above um wholesale economic growth some of those shifts have to do with us reactions to globalization and the the blame that has been put on China rightly or wrongly for um its role in you know perhaps eroding us competitiveness economic competitiveness in the world um but either way you know however you look at the situation there's no doubt that the relationship is now seen as one not of Cooperative coexistence or diplomacy first but really a strategic competition and in some cases strategic rivalry so with that backdrop in mind I want to start with Kure and then turn to Orville for some opening remarks um what from your perspective are the US and China competing over and why what kind of end state do you think that these two countries hope to achieve in terms of their role in the world but also their relationship with each other so over to you uh thank you Rory first let me Begin by thanking hammed and you for welcoming me back uh to the Asia Society I do feel like this is almost my second home because I first came to the Asia Society in 1984 40 years ago when I was first appointed Singapore's ambassador to the UN and I used to come here all the time so to come back here is like coming back home and I'm also very happy to be a per wellous fellow uh representing upen also at this uh discussion so um to answer your question Rory uh I think before you can answer the specific question about the direction of us China relations it's important to emphasize that we are dealing with it within a very very different Global context and we have to understand this difficult different Glo Global context if you're going to understand the Dynamics that are also driving the US China uh relationship and there are at least three fundamental ways in which the world has changed uh now firstly to put it very bluntly the 21st century where most of the US China competition will take place will be the Asian Century now what do I mean when I say it's going to be the Asian Century it means that the shift of economic power is going to move to Asia the the largest economies will be in Asia and just to illustrate that point uh in the 1960s not so long ago out of the top five economies zero Asian zero today three are the top five are Asian and and that future growth as you know is going to come from Asia so that's one big shift uh that is happening the secondly on the geopolitical front clearly we are moving from a unipolar world to at least a bipolar world and I I like to say that it's actually a bipolar world World in a multi-polar sea because lots of new other other new powers are emerging becoming more exertive and so the unipolar moment that the United States enjoyed at the end of the Cold War is gone but many people haven't adjusted to the fact that it is gone and that you now have to live in a world where you have to contend with pure powers and other significant Powers who are not necessarily going to bend to the wishes of of the great Powers so easily so it's a much more complex world that we have to deal with and thirdly and equally important point in the cultural Dimension too we are seeing some fundamental shifts that are happening where we've had a world in a sense that has been dominated by one civilization Western Civilization for the past 200 years and western states as you know colonized the whole 100 years ago if you were sitting here in in 19 uh 24 the West ran the whole world effortlessly right now you have a multi-valve been Domin are reemerging and coming back in strength so even on the cultural front it's a different world So within this larger Global context we also seeing the US China contest so why is it happening the reason quite simply is that the United States is doing what exactly any number one power would do when it sees the emergence of a competitor it makes sure that the competitor doesn't overtake it so it is pushing it down that's what all great Powers have done so what the US is doing is not surprising it's predictable and if you put X or Y that's exactly what would happen because the US has been used to being number one it doesn't want to see this place to another power but at the same time while this is predictable and expected what is not clear to the rest of the world that is obviously watching this contest and is very worried about this contest what exactly are the main strategic goals of the United States in this contest you know and this frankly as I say in my book has China One that Insight I got from Henry Kissinger in a one-onone conversation when I was writing my book as China W and hit to some extent you alluded to it in your remarks too so for example is it the goal of the United States to stop the economic growth of China maybe that's why you have trade tariffs chips sanctions and so on so forth is that the goal can't be done or is it the goal to overthrow the Chinese Communist party again I'll explain later can be done or is it the goal to do what United States did with the Soviet Union contain it effectively leave it confined to a small universe and have it disengaged from the rest of the world again as I'll explain it it can't be done so then at the end of the day what the world is asking is what exactly does the United States want to accomplish in this contest and what will be the end game okay fantastic well you've already put a lot on the table for us to come back and discuss including um fundamental changes the the rise of a multi-polar system the economic power and dynamism of Asia um new cultures which I think is a really interesting point we should Circle back to but also raised a lot of questions about us strategic goals so orille could you give us your perspective what are the US and China competing over and why you know what does the US hope to achieve with this and what is the end state that we're looking for well it's always a great pleasure to talk with Kore because it immediately makes me think in ways that I don't normally have to think um the first thought that occurs to me uh after hearing your remarks is this you ask what's the United States new strategy uh post 1972 I guess we could call an engagement I would like to ask you what do you think China's strategy is what are they after because actually this is a a dance between two partners it isn't just up to the United States as I'm sure you would agree so what do you think China is after and if I may ask you a question what power with great power pretentions adopts wolf Warrior diplomacy antagonizes I mean who antagonizes Canada Sweden Norway Australia India I mean I could go on and why what's going on here how is that in the advantage of anybody much less China by I I I I I I I was looking forward to the opening remarks of oh for forgive me I thought you would have some seven minutes of prepared remark give me some to think but I I'm very I'm very happy o to answer uh your question and if you don't mind again forgive me for doing this uh when you talk about our world and and how the world sees especially uh the what China's goals and strategies are I I want you to bear in mind a very important statistic which is that 12% of the world's population lives in the west and 88% of the world's population lives outside the west and let me make one point very clearly and very boldly at the very beginning how the 12% views China is not how the 88% views China and so for example uh when you ask about uh what is China trying to accomplish and if you want to sort of if I can share with you what I pick up from my conversations with my fellow Asians with Africans with Latin Americans they see that China is trying to come back once again as a strong civilization which it once used to be and you know China is he knows better than I do he's the China expert I'm by the way I'm not a China expert let me emphasize that one time immediately I I'm a China Observer uh and of course we have to be China observers because in Southeast Asia as you all know geographically the power that is going to have the greatest impact on us clearly is China just sheer proximity just as Latin America will live in the shadow of the United States of America southeast Asia has to live in the shadow actually of China and India and myself so emphasize so our perspective and that of other Africans is that we've seen this civilization for 4,000 years go up go down go up go down and so the return of China is just part of a long 4,000 year history of dynastic cycles and when the Chinese civilization goes down can go down very very badly and I think oille knows better than any of us that they went through the one of the worst centuries the century of humiliation from 1842 to 1949 but it's not normal for the Chinese civilization to underperform for so long it's much more normal for them to come back after a while so what we see therefore from let's say from sa's Asia is a return of a civilization that we have seen for centuries go up and down so this is a natural return now so when China tries to claim a place in the world as one of the great Powers is a perfectly natural development now you you mentioned things uh you use words like wolf Warrior diplomacy and what's interesting is that while the term wolf Warrior diplomacy is so frequently used in the Anglo-Saxon media and as you know the Anglo-Saxon media let's be very blunt about this has a very jaundice view of China and the rest of the World discounts what the uh uh uh Anglo-Saxon media says about China what the rest of the world does is to look at what China does and then deal with it and at the end of the day you will notice that countries have a choice do they want to trade with China or do they not want to trade with China and if you look at the Deeds China today does far more trade with the rest of the world than the United States does by the way we do want to have trade with United States too but trade as you know is a voluntary activity but it benefits the countries that do it so you take a country like Brazil which is much much closer to the United States than it is to China 20 years ago it took Brazil one year to export $1 billion to China today it takes Brazil 60 hours to export 1 billion dollars to China so why shouldn't Brazil have a normal trading relationship with China so you can see therefore the point I'm trying to suggest to you is that if you look at many of the countries in the global South not all at many of the countries in the global South they're very happy to have normal relations with China and they have no difficulties the difficulties have come as I said primarily between the United States and China for understandable reasons this is nor this is what would happen when you have a great power shifts and I actually think that in some ways just as what the United States did towards China was predictable China responses towards the United States are also predictable of course we live in a really interconnected world now correct right where the kind of this narrative about the the rise and fall of great Powers ends up reverberating in different ways countries are very happy to trade with China and I will turn to Orville in a minute for his thoughts on you know how the US sees China's Behavior but I from my perspective do not think that the US um wants to hurt hamper harm China's legitimate trade with the world but at the same time the countries are trading more with China they're also seeking greater and greater security assistance from the US Orville could you break this down a little bit what are some of the concerns about China's Behavior as it rises that are causing this kind of demand signal for more us Western attention um perhaps including some of the economic coercion activities as you mentioned with Canada and how do you see that in terms of um China's rise in this system and its potential effects on global development moving forward um I think you know um Kure I agree with you that uh yes China has every right to be a great power and actually they've accomplished an amazing developmental uh uh success story and understand great Powers never like to be deposed and replaced by others but I think in your argument and what I'd like to ask you about is China is not just another great power it is a Marxist leninist regime that under xiin ping has become very very different than we experienced in the 80s even in the 90s after the 1989 uh Beijing Massacre and demonstrations and I think that without factoring that element into the equation we can't just blly say China wants to be a great power wants to trade with everybody everybody wants to trade with it because there is another element in the equation namely what China is after as a new kind of techno autocracy in the world and whether other countries feel comfortable with that now we were talking upstairs a bit about the Philippines I watch the Philippines extremely carefully because I see that as a kind of a RoR scale I mean southeast Asia fair enough Singapore caught in the middle doesn't want to have to choose Malaysia I get it but uh I think we may be approaching a point where it's going to be at least more difficult if not impossible to stand in the middle and I think we see in the Philippines flickers of that recognition now ad mly the world is always in flux so I'm curious to know how you view the internal political shift in China where it is returning to a much more uh sort of maest mode not completely so and how other countries the Comfort levels they feel about accepting China's hegemony in Asia if not in the world uh are you comfortable with this I mean Singapore is a small little country how do you feel about that yes you want to keep trading but there are other factors here I think you have to take into consideration well first of all let me uh if you don't might quickly comment on the point you raised Rory uh when you mentioned that uh countries are also moving closer to the United States uh you're absolutely right uh I want to emphasize also to avoid any misunder understanding that there are huge reservoirs of Goodwill globally towards the United States and the world is actually quite happy to see a strong United States and a strong China and to some extent if they balance each other that's not too bad uh for the World At Large so it's not as though the world is rushing to embrace China and saying goodbye America that's not the world the world actually most countries in the world as you yourself said oille want to have good ties with with both United States and China uh now in your in your point about uh the internal uh political makeup of China and isn't China becoming more Marxist leninist or communist and are we worried about that and I think here I want to emphasize that there is only one country in the world uh that passes judgments on the internal political systems of other country it's a very exceptional country and I think you all know of American exceptionalism I can tell you that you know the UN is not too far away from here it's a mile or two away if you walk into the United Nations you will find that one of the most uh sacred principles of the UN Charter uh which is actually um held to very strongly by member states of the UN is that we will not interfere in each other's Internal Affairs that's enshrined in the UN Charter and that principle is used by Most states when they deal with each other so attitude of most states in the world is you choose your form of government no matter what you choose we will deal with the government uh in power and so whether China is more Marxist or less Marxist or Democratic or undemocratic we can get we cannot get to choose it's up to the Chinese uh at the end of day choose what kind of government that they have but I do think also if if I can or will push a little bit bit uh back at you you know when United States first fell in love with China in 1971 can I ask you who was the leader of China at that point was it maong would you call maong a great defender of Human Rights would you say that he is this is the man with a liberal mind a liberal Spirit someone you can you know develop a kinship with you know what I'm getting at right so when it comes to Joop politics it's a very cruel business ideology can be put aside when necessary can be brought to the for when necessary and even today if you say that the United States will stand up and stand up the Communist party's regimes why are you cultivating Vietnam what's the difference I mean is isn't doesn't Vietnam also have a Communist party in power so I'm only saying this because the rest of the world when I say that the rest of the world has changed they've become much more sophisticated they see through all this they see that yes there's a serious geopolitical contest going on between United States and China they are very worried about it they want to maintain good ties with both and they won't pass judgment and it's not just to be fair orille it's not just Singapore I can I can give you if you want a list of 100 countries I can give you list of 100 countries that are in that position can we talk a little bit about how countries are approaching this um desire not to make a choice like what are the factors orille from your perspective that are narrowing country's options down into making a choice between the US and China when it's clear that most countries don't want to choose or want to be able to maybe choose both um but also that it benefits both the US China and the world for there to be that type of Cooperative tissue what are some of the major irritants well before I get to the irritant let me just say k sure that nine US Presidential administrations wholeheartedly supported engagement and I take your point that you know we we pick and choose who who who we oppose and and but I I I think the the difference is that uh Vietnam is not has no sort of hegemonic pretenses in the South China Sea is not in conflict with the Saku is not competing with the Philippines for second Thomas scha is not threatening to to have some sort of a a Rec reunion with a forced reunion with Taiwan and and of course I remind you that uh we've had a little dust up in India of late and the entire aronal Pradesh in the Northeast territories is claimed by China they have maps with Chinese name on places that shoe is going to drop so it isn't that just China's a a nice little authoritarian country wanting to trade with the rest of the world it seems to me that what is agitating the situation and making it very difficult not just for the United States but is China's pretentions to rejuvenate in a way that has Global aspirations first in Asia and possibly elsewhere we don't know so I think that you know this is a very much more complicated thing than just China rejuvenating and restoring itself to a place of greatness it is reaching out in ways which I think are very unsettling for Southeast Asia and when I'm in Singapore the thing that stuns me is I understand Singapore's situation but actually I mean I think you singaporeans and I use you as a kind of a metaphor for many people in Southeast Asia do feel rather profoundly comfortable with American am an and actually many people feel rather uncomfortable with China but it is the you don't want to express it too loudly because you don't want to rock the boat fair enough I get it but I I would love to hear you address what I think some would call China's hegemonic pretentions in Asia and the destabilizing effect of that throughout the entire region do you think China is making the same mistakes that other industrialized countries are making that they expand too far too fast that they try to wield the power that they've just received too quickly and how does um how does that uncomfortableness in Southeast Asia with some of China's Behavior play out from your perspective well I can assure you that um one lesson I learned after studying geopolitics for about 50 years is that the concept of a benevolent great power is is an oxymoron there's no such thing as the benevolent great power all great powers without exception and this has only been true for 4,000 years will pursue their own interests and we take it you know in you know in geopolitics they are price makers and price takers so United States and China today are price makers we are price tickers and if we have any kind of Illusion that there's a nice benevolent cuddly great power they will look after you and sacrifice his own interest then you in trouble so you in geopolitics which is a very cruel game and the countries that don't understand geopolitics are the one that get sucked into conflict and get sucked into problems and here I want to add a very important Point CU I think to some extent uh or you being unfair to the soueast Asian States there are at the end of the day 660 million people living in Southeast Asia that's about double the population of United States of America and this region of the world I want to emphasize is the most diverse region of planet Earth out of 660 million people 250 million are Muslims 150 million are Christian 150 million are Buddhist Mahayana Buddhist hinayana Buddhist taist confusionists Hindus and as I told you we have lots of Communists also in Southeast Asia if there was one region on planet Earth that should be destined for war and conflict and the British describe it as the Balkans of Asia that was southeast Asia now can you please ask yourself a simple question why have there been no major Wars in Southeast Asia since 79 that's 44 45 years there is a hidden genius in Southeast Asia in asan we know how to manage geopolitics we know how to adjust adapt be flexible we know how to maintain good ties with United States and we do when President Biden invites the 10 assian leaders they come right and when President she invites the 10 Asian leaders they go and when Prime Minister alberi of Australia invites 10 Asian leaders they go so if you want to learn if you want to enter a world in which different cultures and civilizations want to learn how to live in peace with each other and can live in peace with each other come to asan come to Southeast Asia please don't be condescending towards this region this region has accomplished some remarkable things that the whole world can take lessons from and lesson number one learn from us how to avoid Wars uh first of all I would say that I I I agree with you we condescension towards anyone is not a a helpful policy and and and I I don't I don't want to think that we are condescending towards southeast Asia and I think actually quite the contrary that we try to do recognize that that Southeast Asian countries are as I said stuck in the middle and and I think we understand that and it's not I think the goal of the United States government to push people but that still doesn't answer my question of China's pretentions both within China and outside of China and how you read those and what you think the answer is as the middle ground shrinks and ask the Koreans after what happened with the Thad Missile Crisis and they got punished ask the Japanese you know ask the Indians I mean you've seen this you know this so what is h how should we respond to this uh China is not just another normal uh quazi democracy trying to find its way in the world and to rejuvenate and and reattain great power status it is a particular kind of a a political structure with a pol particular kind of world view and I wonder you know what you think the proper response to China is just let it alone pull back the seventh fleet forget Taiwan forget the South China Sea forget the Saku forget Philippines stop Aus stop the quad do you think that's the proper response or what's your remedy um well Rory this is getting very interesting I promise a lot I'm very I'm very happy to answer the questions but I I I'm going to give away a big secret uh China is like any other country an imperfect country uh it makes mistakes and I know but as far as I know all countries make mistakes and it is true that China has had bilateral problems with several countries there's absolutely no question whatsoever and you're right you have the list right with Japan with South Korea uh with Philippines with Australia and also with India you're right uh that's a list of about five or six countries I think remember at the end of the day there are 193 countries in the world right and most countries have problems with some other countries United States has problems with some countries whether it's Russia whether it's Iran whether it's North Korea China so it's this is normal and you know for every country you give me a list mention I can tell you which which which bilateral difficulties that country has Greece and Turkey if you want India and Pakistan if you want so having difficulties having bilateral difficulties is by the way a normal state of the world right so it is not surprising that China has bilateral difficulties sometimes it manages them well sometimes it manages them badly where all countries manage them uh well I think um certainly in in the case of uh South China Sea uh it has made mistakes uh it has been far too exertive and I think the the biggest mistake the Chinese have made uh is in creating this nine dash line and the nine dash line I don't know if you all know this there a sort of a hypothetical line in the South China Sea that's been created by China has no basis in international law right now if it is true that China claims all the waters within the N n- line as territorial Waters as some people claim the China is doing then China shouldn't allow any international shipping through South China Sea but I can assure you yesterday today and tomorrow ships are going through the South China Sea Reg regularly without seeking permission of China even though they're going through the n-h line Waters so the n-h line clearly is a huge mistake that China has made but when you talk about the South China Sea it's important to emphasize that the dispute that China has is with four Assan States it's not a dispute as you know with the United States and if you look at it uh look at the four Assan States in one way or another been trying to manage it whether it's Vietnam Malaysia brunai and uh Philippines now right now you are all focused on the current difficulties that Philippines is having uh with United States but you know you know oille that Philippines elects one president glor Mak paga Aro that moves towards China then it elects another president Akino who moves to United States and then El duete who moves towards China and then elex maros who moves towards United States can you anticipate what's coming next okay so you know so it's important to emphasize that don't take a snapshot it's important to see the long-term picture and at the end of the day if South China Sea really is that dangerous you should be seeing uh Wars or or or or you know gun battles and so on so forth but you know so far everybody's been very restrained but I can tell you this southeast Asia knows very well that when China comes back as a great power as it has and it is going to be we have to make strategic adjustments you know is one thing to live next door to a mouse fine but when the mouse becomes an elephant you worry about the elephant rolling over and how do you manage that and I can tell you that the Southeast Asian countries have had very long wisdom in how to manage China and the one country orille as you know that knows China very well is Vietnam Vietnam has been a neighbor of China for 2,000 years it was occupied by China only 1,000 years and and you know you know what the Vietnamese say the vietnames say that to become a leader of Vietnam you must be able to stand up to China and you must be able to get along with China if you cannot do both you cannot be a leader of Vietnam that's all wisdom so I can assure you that we're not just going to become suckers and roll over and say okay do whatever you want China no no we not that stupid okay that we have our own ways and means and frankly if you look at a large country like Indonesia also me 260 million people right how does Indonesia get along with China Indonesia by the way is a good friend of United States wants to be a good friend of United States and is also managing China and you want to ask if you want to watch subtlety and complexity watch carefully what the Indonesians do then you understand that the Asians have a level of sophistication and subtlety that you'll never see but it's real and it works and it prevents Wars Orville I want to turn back to you to try to get an answer to my original question oh this has been a fascinating Back in Forth I've really appreciated your views um let me ask it in a slightly different way to try to elicit your response what kind of China does America want and need in the world in order to stand up to China and get along with China well of course America is also a very fickle country and unpredictable country and and and it's easy for us to think that it it it it should act rationally and maybe does ACT rationally sometimes but it doesn't I think you know the ideal world was paradoxically and quite tragically the world we had which was engagement it was a I think Henry Kissinger was absolutely right he threw the switch and he didn't call it engagement then we didn't know about engagement yet but it became that and the conceit of engagement was let's accept each other more or less let's trade let's exchange let's try to get along and slowly see if we can't get on a more convergent pathway and I think you all know that uh America actually this was I think a a really good example of American leadership and I will remind you after the Beijing Massacre what did President presid Bush du who was at the initial uh you know before we had an embassy he was in Beijing representing the United States he sent Brent Skov to see dun sha ping secretly didn't even tell Ambassador Jim Lily that they were going the transcript of that meeting is very telling because what it shows us was skof really got berated by D shaing who I actually I think is quite a hero I I don't want to malign him but only to say that dong saw the demonstrations as caused by the United States and was very abusive to skor Croft who was saying please remember President Bush thinks of China uh the China relationship is important wants to continue it I I raise that only to say that I think the United States has gone the distance to try to find a way to do exactly what you propos Kore which is to accept maybe not completely complely but to get along work it out see if the future can't hold a better future a more congruent future and I think what we see if I may just quickly jump to the end here and then stop is that in a certain sense if I read this correctly I think xiin ping has brought engagement to an end sadly and tragically both for us for you and for China and I ask you why how do you explain it and that changes the game completely so what are you going to do about it what am I going to do about it what are we going to do about what's the right response now that we don't have an operating system for any kind of a a as Hamid said we're Compass less what's the answer you tell me could you actually talk to us a little bit about where you think the US China relationship could more productively Go I mean I think Orville a lot of the points that you've made and also Kure the points that you've made have really pointed to a very deep strategic mistrust between the US and China don't trust each other's political systems China thinks the US is fermenting color revolutions inside the PRC because of American democracy you know the US thinks that um Chinese techno authoritarianism could spread throughout the world um we don't have agreement on what we are doing with regard to our Taiwan policy we're definitely interpreting each other's actions as aggressive when we see our own as defensive so how do we manage the Strategic mistrust and maybe if we can throw in Orville's layer how do we do it in the Xi Jinping era yeah great questions um strategic mistrust you're absolutely right and I can tell you that this strategic mistrust between in United States and China worries the whole world a great deal because at the end of the day no matter what you do the reality is that China frankly has already emerged as a great power I I don't buy the the conventional wisdom in the Anglo-Saxon media which is by the way always wrong on China in 1990 when the econ Economist first predicted the coming collapse of the Chinese economy in 1990 the Chinese GMP was $360 billion a few months ago The Economist again came out with a story saying Chinese economy is going the Chinese economic growth is over but then it had grown to 18 trillion it had grown 50 times after 30 years of predictions of the coming collapse of China why do I emphasize that China's rise is Unstoppable and it's not driven by you or by me is driven by 1.4 billion Chinese people and I'm sure you read the column by Martin wolf in the financial times last week in which he said if 1.4 billion Chinese people decide to become prosperous nothing can stop them and the Chinese people have this great desire to do as well as the rest of the world and so they have China by the way China's economy has serious serious serious problems property bubble demographic challenges uh uh lack of investor confidence these are all real issues but at the end of the day what we have learned is that if there's one set of Po policy makers that seem to know how to fix their problems gradually it is uh China now if if you want me to answer your question directly uh oille about uh president xiin ping I want you to know that again I want to go back to my point of 193 countries in the world almost no other country in the world passes judgment on the quality of the leader that they are dealing with they accept the fact that he's the leader and we have to deal with him good bad friendly unfriendly and frankly I want to tell you this if you don't mind very directly if you did a poll of 193 leaders and asked them in 2017 2018 would you would you rather deal with President XI chin ping or would you rather deal with President Donald Trump I tell you 193 countries would vote in favor Shing I'm serious so when you emphasize that oh it's a leader that's a problem it's not the problem you have to deal with a country and I can tell you this you know since I've spoken to many people in especially in third world countries who have dealt with President XI they don't share your vision of President shei they see him as a sane sober rational predictable leader who is advancing China's interests quite effectively I mean at the end of the day you look at where China was when he took power 2014 where China is 2024 it has come a long way so we whatever we do we don't underestimate him or China by the way we also don't underestimate United States I want to assure you that the respect for United States is deep and profound and very strong but in the same way there's also the same deep profound respect for China and we know we have to deal with these two great powers and actually we believe that the United States would be better off now don't call it engagement don't call it containment just deal with the reality the reality is that there is a strong great power like China and you have to live with it and then figure out what's the best way of living with it in a way that enhances America's national interest and I would say for America to defend its National interest is perfectly legitimate perfectly legitimate but in many ways the world would be happier that if given the all the extra extraordinary challenges you're facing for example in climate change you know you're the expert on climate change the the most sensible thing Humanity could do is to tell United States and China please we have a bigger problem coming if we burn our planet Earth we have nothing left to live on we're destroying the only ship we have why don't we press the pause button on this geopolitical contest frankly is less important than the global challenges we face so if you ask me what the rest of the world thinks they actually hope that the United States and China could find ways and means of dealing with their differences in such a way that it doesn't destabilize the rest of the world and allows us to focus on what's really important that's coming in the future we need to turn to your audience and get them involved in the questions but from my perspective I think that is what reasonable people in the US government are trying to do with the strategy of strategic competition the question I think that um raised at the beginning is instructive do we have the Strategic Vision to carry forward our national interests the defense of our national interest in a rational way that does not make the problem worse um please the audience throw us your questions you can raise your hand I see one hand right here a mic will come to you shortly and we'll take your questions thank you so much for the great talk and good to see you again Prof m so uh I have two questions actually the first one is a little bit more specific I remember uh Ambassador meani criticized China's reactions in South chinae decades ago including the night Dash lines so how would you assess his recent approach to the Taiwan Street including what happened a couple days ago the new fish Bo incident and it's being in the country criticized as being not aggressive so do you think they learn a lesson from the past and become more moderate these days but they also exert more military controlling areas that used to be co- patroled and the second question is you talk about different leaders so um forget about a longstanding regime possibly in China what if Trump comes back this year couple years ago you critici uh you had an article saying that Trump helped China to gain International reputation during his uh during his presidency so what if it comes back in the end of this year how do you think this going to affect the bilateral relationship thank you I'd like to give you both a chance to answer those two questions so we'll start you with you sure okay the first question was on Taiwan second question what happens if Trump comes back okay now by the way I think we all know I think aille would agree that by far the most dangerous um issue in the US China bilateral relationship is Taiwan if there's one thing that could cause a war between United States and China it is Taiwan and I think you all know that from the Chinese point of view Taiwan is the last living symbol of the century of humiliation because CH Taiwan as you know was first separated from China after China lost the Sino Japanese war in 1895 so not bringing Taiwan back is seemed like a a sort of a continuing wound in Chinese civilization that has to be fixed but at the same time to prevent War the best thing we can do is to keep the status quo as it is and not change it in any way and so those who want to preserve peace in Taiwan Straits keep keep the status quo in some of it is fictional of course the fiction is that Republic of China represents all of China but that's a fiction that's actually very important for peace the minute you drop that you create War now at the same time I think we must all understand and respect the desire of the people of Taiwan to keep their Lifestyles as it is they don't want to change they don't want to join uh mainland China that's understandable but if you want to find a solution that accommodates both the desire of the Taiwanese people to keep their the way of life they're used to without any change whatsoever without any fear without any different and to also prevent a war it can be done but the question is do you want to see peace across Taiwan streets or do you want to see a war so I'm hope and I must say to be fair many US administrations have understood that very very well so when President Chuan of Tai Taiwan emerged as you know in around 2003 2004 it was President George W bush that made it very clear to president chunri ban I will not allow you to have a referendum that was a very wise decision made by the president of United States so the US government understands the sensitivity of this issue so that's got to be very carefully managed now in the case Cas so what happens when Trump uh comes back uh I I think if if Trump comes back huh if Trump comes back oh if please delete that from the record no I'm sorry yeah no no by the way I let me okay let me be very blunt very direct I would say most countries in the world would be happy happier if President Joe Biden's elected let me be very clear about that uh I mean president Joe Biden is a very predictable uh careful sensitive uh president who as you know has has made many friends around the world but president Donald Trump version two if he comes back will I think be a much bigger challenge uh for the world much much bigger challenge for the world and that's why actually in some ways if the United States could focus a bit more on his own internal challenges as I say in chapter 7 of my book as China 1 if the United States could become less of a plutocracy and create a society where the bottom 50% who have seen a stagnation in their standard of living for 30 years if you can improve their standard of living give them a sense of hope then they won't vote for Donald Trump so from the from the point of view of rest of the world we want to see a strong vibrant United States where the people are happy and they elect a happy president orille thoughts on either well I I have nothing to say on Trump I have no idea what he do if he's president I mean it's catch as catch can it's it's and I agree with you K sure the best thing we can do is straighten our own mess out and be better leaders in the world and and preserve our democracy as to Taiwan I think my remedy for Taiwan is exactly maong and Dong XA pings As maong Told Winston who's here and Kissinger and Nixon let it let it be for 100 Years Don't let don't worry about it when dun xaing stopped in Tokyo on his way to Washington to uh to meet with Jimmy Carter and reestablished diplomatic relations he said he was asked about this and he said leave it for future Generations smarter generations to deal with that's the smart way but that's not xiin Ping's way so I think you know we know what happened to Tong Kong it's pretty obvious you know the that that there will be some movement toward Taiwan maybe not an amphibious assault or something like that but I wager there'll be some pecking away at the edges which will be really challenging I would say finally Kure this you say let's just Live and Let Live and get along with China and accept them good but sometimes uh I think you'd have to agree with me history provides a lot of examples where that does not work and I raised the question of the Ukraine here I mean sometimes countries iridal with pretentions of irredentism they they act as Russia did in the Ukraine I fear that could happen in some way in the Taiwan Straits or in the South China Sea or with the Saku and I think that's it's it's a very foolish uh pretention that China has that this wound as you describe it is so deep that they have to go up possibly blowing up the whole Asian economic miracle and they take down Singapore with them let's take a few more questions grouped all together if we can I'm going to say one two three we'll take all three questions while we're bringing the mic to the first person um on the Taiwan straight I think it's really instructive to remember that though there was this fishing boat incident it did not escalate into a crisis and there's probably very clever smart diplomacy between um officials or with officials in taibe Beijing and Washington that made sure that that incident was relatively well contained so a bright spot in an otherwise messy neighborhood right up here oh thank you so much I'm curious to here are your thoughts on China's increasing military presence in West Africa uh Equatorial Guinea and now potentially jibou as well I'm sorry could you repeat that China's China's increasing military presence in Africa China's increasing military presence in Africa thank you next question where are we right here yeah hi so thank you both uh for this really interesting talk uh but it seems like uh on the side of China we're spending a lot of time talking about what feels like the China of 2009 when they were at their peak in terms of influence when comparatively uh their system of state-backed capitalism looked much better uh than the of the West and well don't fully agree that the United States is the only country in the world that judges the leadership of other countries uh China was also very U judgment free this was the time of a lot of infrastructure Investments um but I think that's not the China of today and especially after the pandemic uh I think there's a lot of a lot more radic leadership um and a lot less of this kind of rule by Council first among equals that you saw before when China was more stable and so I think that fun FAL question of did China of today with XI Jin ping with a much more personalized leadership does seem more unstable does that not worry more of these countries than that you know that list of who would choose between the United States and China I don't think that's an operation anymore is that the question what is what are other countries in the world thinking about the stability of xiin Ping's leadership today yeah it's much different leadership in China than it was before the pandemic and since the financial crisis okay we have time for one more question I apologize I know a lot of you have the an in the area we should answer them as they come up or we'll forget them I've got them military inter Chinese military in West Africa Chinese military in Africa hasion being changed after the pandemic can we just take the last question pleas I'm the third I had my hand up first I'm going to go thank you I'm deeply impacted by Orville's brother's book The Gift of time in which he highlights Albert Einstein's uh admonition that the nuclear bomb changed everything except our thinking and we drift toward catastrophe and what he was talking about was the West philan model of nation states playing with these devices and putting the whole world at risk every day and I'm also deeply informed by facts realism we're destroying species at over a thousand times The evolutionary base rate 60% of our oxygen comes from the health of the pH of the oceans because phytoplankton gives us our oxygen we're destroying rainforests faster than their are being replenished and the list goes on of problems that cannot be solved in the westan model of competition among states how do we bring realism planetary realism back to the discussion as you highlighted in the whole range of problems that are not about identity not about civilization but about the reality that we're facing today thank you okay I'm going to turn to Orville first on these three questions Chinese military in West Africa one in my weak brain let me answer that first uh yes the great tragedy for me of the end of Engagement is the planet is at risk because the United States and China cannot cooperate and we absolutely must learn how to but uh I also call your attention to the fact that John ky's been working on this for decades and not gotten very far so it takes reciprocity to bring about resolution of questions like climate change nuclear weapons pandemics and that's exactly what's missing now if I read the Biden Administration correctly the door is open but I'm not sure it's very open in Beijing to these questions and if it isn't open in both sides you don't have a partnership you don't have a dialogue you don't have effective action so I would say that about that that would be my response to you about uh I'll answer one other question quickly XI Jin ping stability you know I I listen we may just disagree here Kore I think Xi Jinping is a leader who's very different from any of the prime ministers any of the premieres or party General secretaries I watched from hu bang on down and I think it's a problem he is deeply Ed victim culture he he deeply believes in that sort of old ma Trope of hostile foreign forces are out to overturn you know regime change all of these things not entirely in true I might add but it is a problem that makes it very difficult for China to be soluble in the world that the liberal Democratic states live in even though they're in a fallen State of Grace often and I think this is a a huge danger and in this sense leadership matters K our last word to you on any of these questions or a response to okay three quick questions firstly on the military Chinese military in Africa I I want to say this as respectfully as I can I would say I respect the Africans if the Africans decide for their own security they want to have closer military ties with the United States that's a good choice defendable choice if they want to have good ties with China let them choose you know so please allow the Africans to decide for themselves I can tell you in private many Africans complain to me about the condescension they get when they make their own decision so I think it's very very important to to take the view that Africans can judge for themselves what is good for them now on the question of xiin ping I actually uh believe believe that I think this what you express is the conventional view of the Anglo-Saxon media the first point I'm going to make is that the conventional view of the Anglo-Saxon uh media on xiin PING is not shared by most countries in the world and I can tell you this that many of the world leaders who have dealt with President shei face to face face deal with him discuss issues find him a sober and reasonable interlocutor and the one point of which I would say where I have the maximum amount of disagreement with oille is that oville portrays a man whose dream is to revive Marxism leninism to revive communism that's not how most Asians see shei we see shei as someone who believes that China has been a great civilization it has had 100 bad years it's time for Chinese civilization to come back so if he has a dream the dream has nothing to do with communism Marxism leninism even though it is China is run by the Chinese Communist party it is an instrument the Chinese Communist party is an instrument that is being used to revive what chining believes to be a great civilization so that's his end goal but I think the most important question was the last question and I completely agree with you that our planet is endangered in many different ways and you spell them out and frankly that's why in my book you know the great convergence I say that the world has changed fundamentally and to explain how Chang fundamentally I use a very simple boat analogy and I hope you'll reflect on this boat analogy in the past when we live in 193 separate C separate countries it was as though we were living 193 separate boats right so we could decide what to do on our boat so if one boat got Co the other boats wouldn't get it they're in different boats but the world has shrunk and I really mean that literally we no longer live in 193 separate boats we live on 193 separate cabins on the same boat now if you on a boat together and the boat begins to sink the stupidest thing to do is to lock up your cabin and say I'll protect my cabin and that's exactly what we are doing which is bizarre we're supposed to represent the most intelligent species on planet Earth but we doing something completely stupid in response to these great planetary challenges and that's why I say the wisest thing you can do about this geopolitical contest between us and China at least just press the pause button for a while look at what's happening in the world focus on the real Global challenges maybe after we fix them then we can go back to the squabbles thank you all right we have reached thank you guys all so much we've reached time I think that we have not resolved the US China rivalry but hopefully um you were entertained and also if we can keep having conversations like this including um bringing prominent Asian experts to this New York audience at the Asia Society we have a much better chance of of being in enlightened wise captains of this boat that we are all [Music] in

Channel: 全球大視野

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Keywords: 中天新聞, 國際新聞, Cti Talk, 全球大視野, 國際直球對決, 前進戰略高地, 鄭妹看世界, 名家說, 全球熱話題, 全球線上, GLOBAL, 中國大陸, 林嘉源, 鄭亦真, 雷倩, 介文汲, 郭正亮, Taiwan, China, Chinese, 台湾, 中国, 美国, USA

Id: f-ACTgnkaro

Length: 69min 16sec (4156 seconds)

Published: Wed Apr 03 2024