Recently, the media have reported that the relationship between South and North Korea has reached the most dangerous moment in history. The reason is that North Korea suddenly said that it would give up reunification with South Korea and then began to fire missiles intensively. South Korea was not willing to be outdone and responded with missiles . Could it be that, Are North and South Korea really going to fight? Let us talk about the "situation on the Korean Peninsula" today! Hiho~ Hello everyone, I am Zhiqi! A while ago, Kim Jong-un suddenly announced that North Korea no longer regards South Korea as "the same nation" and even said that South Korea is the "number one enemy." The two sides may go to war at any time , and he did not just talk about North Korea's launch of missiles against South Korea after this declaration. The artillery shells and missiles are obviously more numerous and denser than in the past. In addition to the President of South Korea strongly reprimanding North Korea for using missiles to "counterattack", the United States and Japan have also jumped out to protest . Some experts have commented that the current situation on the Korean Peninsula is worse than the Korean War in 1950. It is even more dangerous before the outbreak . It is even said that Kim Jong-un's declaration means that he has decided to go to war with South Korea . Today we will talk about what is the intention behind Kim Jong-un's speech ? Will a full-scale war really break out on the Korean Peninsula if this continues ? Before starting today's discussion, let's go into some business service time! [Kim Jong-un's "Abandonment of Reunification" Declaration] At the end of last year, Kim Jong-un said at a meeting that because of the increasing threats from the United States and South Korea, "unification of the two Koreas" was no longer possible, so North Korea would change its policy. From now on, it would no longer treat South Korea as They are "the same nation" but hostile belligerents . In mid-January, he reiterated this statement at North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly . In this speech, Kim Jong-un first spent a lot of space introducing North Korea's internal affairs plan for 2024 , including He strengthened the promotion of modern industry and improved power supply to ensure people's livelihood needs. He also emphasized that he would vigorously implement rural construction and develop local industries to narrow the gap between urban and rural areas . Then he changed the topic and said that this year he would "draw an end to the nearly 80 years of relations between North and South Korea." He further elaborated on his plan. First, he said that he would amend the constitution to list South Korea as the "first enemy nation" and allow North Korea to "recover" South Korea in the war. He then ordered the removal of the " obtrusive " Unification Gate and other physical symbols. Completely erasing the concepts of "unification, reconciliation, compatriots", etc. from North Korea's history . In addition, he also ordered "the cleanup of groups related to peaceful reunification." On the same day, North Korea disbanded all agencies responsible for reunification, including those dealing with foreign affairs with South Korea. At the end of his speech, he warned that North Korea does not seek war, but it does not avoid war. As long as the enemy "sparks a little spark of war," he will use force including This move to use "all military force, including nuclear weapons " to counter Kim Jong- un soon triggered an international uproar. Analysts said that although Kim Jong-un often speaks wildly , the nature of his declaration this time is completely different from the past. It is fundamentally different. It has changed the core ideology that North Korea has adhered to since the founding of the country and the reunification of the Korean peninsula [The Kim regime originally insisted on reunification? 】 The Kim regime's insistence on "unification" can be traced back to the split of the Korean peninsula into two after World War II. At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union took over the north and the south respectively. The North Korean leader promoted by the Soviet Union was Kim Jong-un's grandfather "Kim Il-sung" Kim Japan and Japan had intended to "unify" South Korea by force from the beginning. After gaining the support of the Soviet Union, they also declared war in 1950. However, the three-year Korean War did not bring about any progress. South and North Korea have also been divided to this day . However, neither side has given up on unifying their respective countries. The Constitution also recognizes the Korean Peninsula as a "unified country." Kim Il-sung also set the basic national policy of "peaceful reunification" in the 1970s. Later, he took the initiative to propose the "one country, two systems" plan to the United States. After Kim Jong-il took over, he further proposed " The basic principles of the "Three Charters " for the reunification of the country . Analysts believe that the Kim regime's insistence on reunification is partly based on "national sentiment" . When the two Koreas split, many families were separated, so Kim Il-sung often talked about reuniting North Koreans with relatives and friends in the south . However, the more fundamental reason was to consolidate his power . Some scholars pointed out that Kim Il-sung was initially promoted by the Soviet Union. The power of the superior was not very stable, and he almost lost the war after the war, so he used this "national unity" argument after the war to eliminate political opponents and rationalize his authoritarian rule. For example, he once blamed the "failure of unification" on the two Koreas. At that time, other factions within the North Korean regime came to dominate power. They blamed the outbreak of the Korean War on the United States' "occupation" of the south and encouraged the puppet regime to "invade" North Korea , thereby portraying themselves as "defending foreign enemies and defending the country." Kim Jong- il, the hero who relied on "hereditary" succession, continued this narrative to consolidate his power. The same goes for Kim Jong-un . Just a few years ago, he talked about "reunification" and even interacted cordially with the South Korean Prime Minister. Now he is tough. The attitude of "giving up unity" is completely different . What happened in the middle? [How did Kim Jong-un change his mind? 】 In 2018, the scene of the interaction between Kim Jong-un and the then South Korean President Moon Jae- in swept the global news. When the two met at "Panmunjom" on the border between the two Koreas , they not only crossed the border and set foot on each other's territory at the invitation of each other, but also signed the "Panmunjom" agreement. The "Declaration" stipulated the complete cessation of hostilities, mutual non-aggression, etc. Therefore, 2018 was also called by the media as "the moment of the closest relations between the two Koreas." Such great progress allowed Moon Jae-in to more actively mediate and indirectly contributed to the 2019 The meeting between Trump and Kim Jong-un failed , but the negotiations on nuclear weapons broke down, which caused the relationship between the two Koreas to take a turn for the worse . In 2022, South Korea elected the pro-American hawk President "Yin Xiyue". The relationship between the two Koreas worsened even more. South Korea's 2022 defense white paper stated that Six years later, the North Korean regime was once again defined as an "enemy." North Korea frequently launched missiles and developed weapons in spite of United Nations sanctions . In November last year, North Korea launched a reconnaissance satellite . Subsequently, South Korea also responded strongly and suspended part of the "Panmunjom Declaration" After Kim Jong-un announced his "renunciation" of reunification, North Korea more comprehensively increased the intensity of its armed demonstrations, including accelerating weapons tests and more intensive missile tests. In early January, North Korea fired 200 artillery shells into the border buffer zone , although it did not actually It entered South Korean territory but still forced South Korea to evacuate residents of nearby islands . However, this is not the first time that relations between South and North Korea have deteriorated. Is it necessary to overturn the principle that has been maintained for decades and directly "give up reunification"? What does Kim Jong Un want to do? [Why did Kim Jong-un give up on reunification? ] Analysts believe that the purpose behind Kim Jong-un's "abandonment of reunification" mainly has two levels. First, it is to maintain internal stability and stabilize people's hearts. Because in recent years, North Korea's economic situation has deteriorated and people's livelihood has been difficult due to the impact of the epidemic and sanctions from Western countries . Some commentators pointed out that Kim Jong-un The first half of the speech in mid-January spent a lot of time talking about improving people's livelihood issues and narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas . He even recently made a rare public criticism of local officials, saying that backward areas in North Korea "cannot even provide normal supplies of basic daily necessities." This indirectly shows that It shows that the local people in North Korea are unstable. In addition, this instability of people's hearts is also related to long-term factors. Since the great famine in North Korea in the 1990s, The North Korean regime, unable to feed its people, began to acquiesce to the development of the underground market. After that, the younger generation was exposed to South Korean pop culture through the black market , deepening their yearning for the South . Analysts believe that in this context, Kim Jong-un may be It wants to shift the focus of the immigration issue by "giving up reunification" and at the same time adjust the public's ideology to strengthen internal unity by portraying South Korea as "not our race and the number one enemy." In addition, there are also opinions that Kim Jong-un is based on his " "Personal ambition" wants to get rid of the national view of grandfather and father, reshape the legitimacy of his regime through a new historical interpretation and national positioning, and rationalize his investment in nuclear weapons. In addition, the relationship between North Korea and China and Russia has heated up rapidly in recent years . It may make Kim Jong-un more confident to take such a "bold" move , but does this mean that Kim Jong-un really intends to declare war? [Is the war between North and South Korea about to break out? 】 Not long after Kim Jong-un gave up on reunification , North Korea experts from the American think tank "Stimson Center" commented that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than before the outbreak of the Korean War because this means that Kim Jong-un has given up normal interaction with the United States and has made the decision to launch a war. However , most analysts believe that Kim Jong-un does not really want to go to war. The analysis of the Wall Street Journal pointed out that Kim Jong-un should know that if he launches a war now, his regime will be destroyed because the military strength of the United States and South Korea is greater than that of North Korea. Stronger and China's current political and economic situation is not good, it should want to reduce military pressure, so it should not support North Korea in starting a war. A more direct sign is that North Korea is still selling a large amount of weapons to Russia, but really If you want to prepare for war , you should keep it to yourself. Moreover, although North Korea has taken frequent actions recently , it has not used "more dangerous force", which means that the fundamental nature of the conflict has not changed. It is still "provoking" the American think tank "East-West Center" as before. Researchers said that this time listing South Korea as the "number one enemy country" may be because Kim Jong-un is "taking into account the current political situation" and "trying to use new means to cause anxiety." The purpose may be to take advantage of the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Kazakhstan wars in the West. When the social candle is burning, "war" is used as a bargaining chip to force the West to come to the negotiating table to reconsider the nuclear weapons issue. In addition, it may also be an attempt to use the threat of force to influence this year's general elections in South Korea and the United States. Under North Korea's provocation, South Korea and other countries What was the reaction? [Reactions from South Korea and other countries] Faced with the recent series of actions by North Korea, the South Korean government initially responded with a highly vigilant and tough attitude. When the South Korean Defense Minister was interviewed by the BBC in early January, he repeatedly emphasized that a conflict between the two sides may occur , and President Yoon Seok-yue even threatened that if North Korea provokes them , It will "double punishment". After North Korea fired 200 artillery shells into the buffer zone, South Korea actually fired about 400 artillery shells in a "corresponding" exercise . However, as the situation developed, the South Korean government's attitude suddenly softened in mid-January. , the Defense Minister changed his words and said that he saw no signs of North Korea preparing for war and said that "a barking dog cannot bite." President Yun Xiyue shifted the focus to the April election , saying that North Korea may use force threats, cyber attacks and other methods to intervene. Analysis by the South Korean media believes that for the ruling party, showing a tough stance in the face of North Korea's threat is actually more helpful for their election. So why did the South Korean government's attitude suddenly change later? Some South Korean scholars believe that the reason lies in the Korean stock market. He pointed out that the government's emphasis on the "war crisis" for days has scared away many foreign investors, causing the South Korean stock market to plummet in the first half of January, the largest decline since the 2008 financial crisis. Therefore, the government's attitude has become It is more restrained because it wants to save the stock market from the disaster . Other countries except South Korea generally call for preventing the situation from getting worse. The United States issued a statement saying that it will continue to cooperate with South Korea and Japan to maintain regional stability. At the same time, it also emphasized to North Korea that the United States has "no hostility" and is willing to do anything without Dialogue with North Korea under preset conditions. When responding to the situation between the two Koreas, the spokesperson of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was relatively reserved in wording and did not answer whether reporters had known about North Korea's plans . However, they also called on "all parties to disclose their plans." "Through dialogue, we can resolve each other's legitimate concerns in a balanced way" to promote long-term stability on the Korean Peninsula as soon as possible . But having said that, can the current tense situation really be stabilized? How will things develop next? 【What will happen next? 】 Facing the next development , most analysts believe that in the short term, North Korea will continue to be provocative but will adopt more restrained measures to avoid a rapid escalation of the situation , such as conducting local armed attacks like the bombardment of South Korean islands and warships in 2010. However, there are also opinions that Kim Jong-un may "have not made up his mind yet on what to do or when to do it," so he may gradually increase the intensity of his attacks to test the reaction of South Korea and the international community . In addition, some analysts also said that North Korea may use " To disrupt the situation by means other than force , such as using Internet attacks, fake news, etc. to intervene in South Korea's April congressional election . The results of this election may also affect the future direction of the situation because South Korea is now "North Korea" President Yoon Seok-yue's ruling party is relatively tough on North Korea , but the relatively pro-North Korean opposition party is the largest party in the National Assembly. If the ruling party wins the April election , South Korea is more likely to continue or even increase its counterattacks in the face of North Korea's provocations. In addition to the election in South Korea, another factor that may affect the situation is the U.S. election in November. Because Trump is likely to run for U.S. president again. Some analysts believe that if Trump, who has had close conversations with Kim Jong-un, this time Once he comes to power again, he may completely abandon the United States' long-held goal of "denuclearization of North Korea" and instead allow North Korea to develop nuclear weapons, completely changing the direction of the entire situation [Our point of view] When looking at this incident, we will feel that there is something The visual reminds me of Pelosi’s previous visit to Taiwan when the Chinese Communist Party conducted a series of military exercises in the Taiwan Strait. The international media reported how dangerous the “situation in the Taiwan Strait” was. Although the national military had stepped up its alert , the Taiwanese people did not have a “very big reaction.” Many people are still living their daily lives. Even if more warships appear unusually at the beach, some people still bring their families and go to the beach to play in the water. And this time, we have also seen that media from various countries have reported how serious the situation between North and South Korea is. Nervous, some media even describe that the "most dangerous place" in East Asia is no longer the Taiwan Strait but the Korean Peninsula. However, based on our subjective observations on social media and private exchanges with Korean friends , we feel that the South Korean people are now The reaction was a bit like that of the Taiwanese people the year before last , without much panic. We still live our daily lives as usual. In fact, when the situation on the Korean Peninsula or across the Taiwan Strait escalated in the past, Western media would report on the "overly calm" situation of South Koreans or Taiwanese. Many Western analysts believed that this was a sign of "lack of crisis awareness." Well, we think that what Western analysis says is indeed reasonable , because both Taiwanese and South Koreans are too often frightened by the "neighbors on the left" with civil and military attacks. This may be like the story of "the boy who cried wolf" in too many countries. Under excessively frequent threats and intimidation, we may gradually become numb to "crisis" and become accustomed to it. But from another perspective , this calmness may not necessarily be a bad thing . After all, if people have to be prepared every time they are threatened , the impact on their lives should be very serious. And if the reaction is too big and turns into a collective panic, it is not necessarily better. In addition, we also feel that maybe this "calmness" does not mean that people are "not worried or afraid at all" but because the local people live in the In this information , we have our own judgments about the situation, and we may not necessarily assume that there will be a war or something big happens just because "the neighbors are making big moves" . Perhaps, this can also be said to be some kind of "self-adjustment" that allows us to react too frequently to the situation. You can still live a good life during the "crisis", okay? Finally, I want to ask everyone, what do you think of the current situation between the two Koreas? Finally, if you like today's video, please share it to let more people know about "North Korea's Declaration of Non-Reunification"! In addition, you can also click here to read the introduction of "The Impact of the Korean War on Taiwan" and "Reunification of the Two Koreas" . So, today's Zhiqi Qiqi comes to an end here . See you tomorrow night!
