I see people often criticize me on the Internet, saying that Mr. Shen always knows how to badmouth China. China is doomed. China has collapsed . But to be honest, I also want to say that China is not done . China is fine. China's economy is booming. China is rejuvenating . China is rising . I also want to say the same. My relatives and friends are still in China, right ? This is a good thing for them . But is it consistent with the facts? No. Every time I talk about China being finished , which time do I not provide tangible evidence to prove it ? Accurate Data In this episode, we continue to use powerful latest data and facts to prove why my judgment is accurate. Hello everyone, welcome to the Gongzi Commentary Program. I am Gongzi Shen. At the beginning of the program, I would like to congratulate my viewers in Japan. Our Japanese stock market hit a new high in 34 years and is about to approach the level of Japan's most glorious period in 1990 when it almost bought half of the United States. Not long ago, China suffered the largest stock market plunge in history . As we have said before Many people went to the official Weibo of the U.S. Embassy in China to leave messages and complain. The government then comprehensively censored posts, deleted posts , and even blocked accounts. In addition to the stock market, China's other major economic pillar, the real estate market, also plummeted compared to 2021-2022. 81% Of course, China's stock market seems to have picked up in recent days. This is of course not because the profitability of these Chinese companies is growing or the economic fundamentals are changing , but because the Chinese national team entered the market, for example, within four days from February 5th. The CSI 1000-linked Southern Fund ETF has recorded a net inflow of 17 billion yuan. The total assets have reached 4 times before the inflow. However, this kind of national team support only relieves temporary worries and will definitely not be sustainable. Focus on three years. In a time dimension of five years, China's stock market and real estate will continue to decline and collapse. Any recovery or small peak is an opportunity to escape . In addition to Japan's economic prosperity, there is another time when China's economic engine stalls. We have also mentioned before that the country that takes advantage is Singapore. After Singapore recently signed a visa-free reciprocal treaty with China , it announced that it will fully open automatic customs clearance for foreign tourists. Starting from the second half of this year, tourists from all over the world will automatically clear customs when arriving in Singapore. There is no need to apply in advance, you just need to show your passport. So when I say that Singapore signed this agreement with China, it is not because it is optimistic about China , but because it thinks that the Chinese are stupid and have too much money to take advantage of China. A large number of people want to escape from China , whether it is investing , doing business, studying abroad, or traveling. Right, it can bring a lot of profits to Singapore , and China is obviously just one part of its comprehensive opening up. It wants to open up to the whole world. Japan is a beneficiary of this reshuffling of the entire global political and economic landscape. There are also some countries in Southeast Asia like Vietnam, India, and of course Singapore. Because its infrastructure, both software and hardware, is more mature than other Southeast Asian countries , it can attract a large number of high-end talents , including a large number of people from Hong Kong and China. After all, it can be said that it is the most international city in Southeast Asia with the funds and talents that the mainland has unearthed. Of course
, I have seen some media in Hong Kong criticizing Singapore. Because they see Singapore replacing Hong Kong as the financial center of Asia , they can only rely on it. For example, They say that speaking Chinese is no longer popular in Singapore. Many young people only speak English. Hong Kong 01 The media said that "Singaporeans' loss of multilingual advantage is like destroying the Great Wall." Even kindergarten children only speak English . The author is a Singaporean. He published this article in the Hong Kong media. He said that one day he had a dinner with some old friends and one of them told an incident that happened to him. He teased his 5-year-old granddaughter and listened to his full English. He spoke Chinese. Unexpectedly, this child in kindergarten actually said I am a Singaporean and I am not Chinese. Why should I speak Chinese? When this person heard this, he was confused. What is there to be confused about? This child must have spoken English and said me. If it’s not Chinese, why should we speak Chinese ? In English , Chinese , Chinese, Chinese, and Chinese are all one word called Chinese. So no matter what translation method you use, it’s actually the same thing. It’s all Chinese . So for young people in Singapore Generally speaking, I am a Singaporean . Why should I speak Chinese? I am not Chinese, right? This is very reasonable. What is the official language of Singapore ? English, of course, also includes Chinese , but Chinese is now It is obvious that it is declining. This is directly related to China's economic deterioration. The world has entered the new Cold War stage . Don't forget why Singapore used to be a purely English- speaking country and became an English-speaking country. Later, the second language appeared , Chinese . That is Because later China started to reform and open up, and then Lee Kuan Yew saw the rise of China and the business opportunities in China, so he asked Singaporeans to start learning Chinese. What Lee Kuan Yew was doing before was to eliminate the Chinese language. Because it was the Cold War, Singapore had to completely rely on Europe and the United States to prevent communist forces. So he also closed the only Chinese-speaking school at Nanyang University at that time because Chinese-speaking schools were first of all left-wing and closely related to the Communist Party. They were a channel for the infiltration of red forces , and Singapore was completely on the side of Europe and the United States. Lee Kuan Yew was pro-British and American . He knew that Singapore could not be dyed red and that Nanyang University was one of the breakthroughs. There were too many spies hidden in it, so I also talked about the merger of Nanyang University into the University of Singapore. At that time, he launched a similar campaign. When Chiang Kai-shek purged the party during the April 12 Incident in 1927 and eliminated those underground members of the Communist Party, Singapore also did this. Only by doing this did Singapore maintain its security and interests and eventually became such a prosperous country as it is now (China) After the reform and opening up , he began to speak Chinese again , right? Lee Kuan Yew was a very clear realist, how to be practical and how to be good to Singapore, so he could be both anti-communist and pro-communist. This all depends on the changes in the current situation , and the current changes are obviously reaching a new stage. Now we have entered the Cold War stage again , but this time it is a new Cold War. Of course, some people say it is called a Cold War. Whether it is a Cold War or a Cold War, it may break out in the future. In short, China was isolated again. China once again became the enemy of Europe and the United States. At this time, Singapore had to turn again , so it had to turn three times in total. First, it was pro-European and American , then pro-China, and now it is back to pro-European and American. This is why Singapore officially passed the One bill is a bill to prevent the infiltration of external forces , and in February 2024, the government just accused a wealthy Hong Kong businessman of having a political influence of foreign intervention in Singapore. I will devote a special episode to talk about this matter. I think it can be given to Taiwan. Some reference points , so Singapore is clearly winning now. On the surface, it is better to have a visa-free agreement with China . But for Singapore, it wants to make money, make China's money , and make the world's money . But at the same time, in the new Cold War, In the process, we have to turn to the United States. After talking about the opportunities in Japan and Singapore, let’s look at a declining city : Hong Kong. Another old friend of the Chinese people has betrayed him. He is the Asia Chairman of Morgan Stanley, the world’s top investment bank . His name is Roach. An article was published just yesterday. This article was published in the Financial Times of the United Kingdom. It is called it pains me to say Hong Kong is over. I am very sad to say that Hong Kong is over. He said that the turning point will be the official announcement of Hong Kong in 2019. After the Extradition to China Ordinance , Hong Kong's advantages were gone forever. He mentioned three points in his article. The first is that the political environment in Hong Kong was very stable for 20 years after the handover of sovereignty in 1997 until the so-called extradition to China was introduced. The regulations led to large-scale (anti-extradition) protests , and then there was a national security law that completely destroyed the so-called fifty-year unchanged promise of the CCP. Not to mention, let me add, there is also a 23-article legislation, and then he The second factor that affects Hong Kong's status is the Chinese factor. What problems are occurring in China? Especially the 3Ds , which three Ds are debt deflation democraphy. These three problems in China directly affect Hong Kong . The third reason is the international situation. To put it bluntly, China and the United States have begun to break up and are heading towards confrontation and conflict. Whose side does Hong Kong take ? As an international city, Hong Kong is completely dependent on the international market and relies on foreign funds. As a financial center in Asia that has been carved out, which side do you want to take ? Hong Kong does not. In the end, the only choice is to side with China, right
? Then it can only be tied to the big ship of China and sink together . It will decouple from the Western world , so Hong Kong's advantages will be wiped out. So these three reasons lead to the end of Hong Kong. In fact, if you watch my show, you will see this Friends who have been friends for many years should be very familiar with my views. Isn’t this what I have been talking about before? But it is different when this person says it, because after all, he is the former Asia Chairman of Morgan Stanley and an investment banker. He has such a With so many connections and so many interests, it is not easy for him to dare to tell the truth, and others will pay more attention to it. So the reasons he mentioned include the anti-extradition bill, China's aging population, and everything is a bad street. Everyone knows about it, at least my audience knows it. When I said it, I was scolded for badmouthing China. When he said it , it turned into a depth bomb, right? It directly produced a huge effect and made many people think that he thought so. Then why should I invest my money in Hong Kong? No one will have a grudge against money, right? So you can curse, you don’t see the good of China, you have accepted money from foreigners or something,
you can say whatever you like, but Really, when they vote with their feet or vote with their wallets, they naturally know where to choose. Moreover, the Financial Times also had a report on the same day about the second largest US-funded law firm in Hong Kong that has ties to Hong Kong. "Laisheng" they decided to separate the company's database from overseas databases, saying that no one can access the database in Hong Kong without permission . He also knew that his database was not safe in Hong Kong , so the decline of Hong Kong , whether it was the collapse of the stock market or the collapse of the real estate market, was related to China. It's exactly the same because it became a part of China, which led to such a result. So it is a certainty that Hong Kong is dragged down by China. This is why I told my Hong Kong friends that I don't talk about Hong Kong so much in the show. Why? Well, I say everything is so predictable . You can predict what Hong Kong will look like if you look at the Chinese economy. What is happening in China now? I just talked about the plummeting stock market, the plummeting housing market , and the operating problems of these Chinese companies, which are reflected in our stock market. Looking at the latest data, the Peterson Institute for International Studies, an American think tank, found that as of the end of 2023, the market value of China's private enterprises had plummeted by 60% in two and a half years. Among the rankings of the top 100 largest companies in market value published by China, first of all, more than half are state-owned enterprises. Their market value accounts for more than 50% of the market value of the top 100 companies. This is the highest record in the past five years. Xi Jinping's so-called "bigger and stronger state-owned enterprises" have achieved new results. At the same time, of course, these private enterprises are private enterprises in the market economy. The space is severely squeezed among those private enterprises where state-owned capital holds less than 10% of the shares. Their total market value will only account for 37% by the end of 2023. From the peak of US$4.745 trillion, the market value of private enterprises has dropped sharply to less than US$2 trillion. For example , the market value of Alibaba, Tencent, and Meituan has plummeted by 50% to 70%. When the country clearly enters the reverse stage of national advancement and private retreat, it will definitely make the society more turbulent , because 80% of China's labor force is They are those who work in private enterprises. When the private sector's private economy is squeezed, it will inevitably cause the unemployment rate to skyrocket. After these people lose their jobs, it will trigger a series of social security problems. Of course, it will also lead to changes in the country's entire strategic layout , especially for For an authoritarian country It is easy for them to move toward militarism. For example, Nazi Germany and Japan encountered serious economic difficulties, so they began to nationalize and strengthen government control . In order to stabilize their own regime and gain legitimacy to govern, it was easier to cooperate with other countries. When a military conflict occurs , everyone will be coerced during the great changes in society. Smart people may find ways to benefit the rich, and those without money may find ways to benefit . For example, the latest news from the United States is Yesterday (Monday), the U.S. Border Patrol in San Diego arrested 269 Chinese nationals in one day. They were smuggled into the United States through smuggling routes. As of February this year alone, the United States has discovered more than 20,000 Chinese smugglers. I also saw that some media went to the scene and saw a children's book from mainland China on the ground near the border wall . Someone brought it with their family and accidentally dropped it on the ground , leaving it there and being photographed by the media reporters. If it weren’t for the fact that China couldn’t survive , why would so many people flee from China and go to great lengths to fly such a long distance and then cross the U.S. -Mexico border on foot through the tropical rainforest ? This is incompatible with Xi Jinping’s so-called unprecedented prosperity of the nation. How incompatible is the rise of a resurgent power. What is truth and what is propaganda ? You can tell at a glance that everyone has chosen to vote with their feet. Finally, let’s look at a piece of data. Our program today has a lot of data. According to reports from Nikkei, they quoted the latest global corporate database and found that American companies The proportion of the world's total market value has reached 48.1%, nearly half . It has increased by 1.4 trillion from 2023 to reach 51 trillion U.S. dollars. This is the proportion of U.S. companies that account for nearly half of the world's total market value. However, China has now fallen to only The remaining 10% means that mainland China plus Hong Kong only account for about 10% of the world's total market capitalization. The news said that the gap between the total market capitalization of Chinese and American companies has reached the largest scale in history. In the past, we talked about the GDP gap, which is also constantly widening. Now it is these listed companies. All these data of the total market value tell us that the so-called rising in the east and falling in the west is just the wishful thinking of many little pinks and a propaganda slogan of the Communist Party. Under this international situation, Taiwan’s Ma Ying-jeou still said what do we Chinese do when he is worshiping his ancestors ? How can we still regard ourselves as Chinese? It’s a pity that the fate of being Chinese is either that Hong Kong will be abandoned by the global market , or that it will become Xi Jinping’s leek and cannon fodder like the Chinese. What choice will the Taiwanese make in the end? I don’t think this is Ma Ying-jeou. I have the final say . In this episode, I will first talk to you about this and that topic about Singapore and Taiwan. I will do a separate episode in the future to talk to you. Thank you for watching this episode of Gongzi Commentary. If you like this program , please Forgot to click to subscribe to this channel ? 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