YOGA, COME ON. LOVE IT. THANK YOU, CHERYL. MEANWHILE, JOHN KIRBY ISSUING A WARNING TO CHINA ABOUT ITS GROWING AGGRESSION YESTERDAY. THIS AFTER THE CHINESE WAR SHIP CAME WITHIN 150 YARDS OF A U.S. SHIP, CROSSING IN FRONT OF THE U.S. DESTROYER IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT OVER THE WEEKEND. WATCH THIS. >> THERE WAS ABSOLUTELY NO NEED FOR THE PLA TO ACT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THEY DID. WHEN YOU HAVE PIECES OF METAL THAT SIZE, WHETHER IT'S IN THE AIR OR ON THE SEA AND THEY'RE OPERATING THAT CLOSE TOGETHER, IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH FOR AN ERROR IN JUDGMENT OR MISTAKE TO GET MADE AND SOMEBODY COULD GET HURT. MARIA: JOINING ME RIGHT NOW IS FOX NEWS SENIOR STRATEGIC ANALYST, CHAIRMAN OF THE INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR, GENERAL JACK KEANE BACK WITH US. GENERAL, ALWAYS A PLEASURE. GOOD TO SEE YOU THIS MORNING. >> GREAT SEEING YOU, MARIA. MARIA: WHAT IS THE CCP DOING WITH ALL OF THESE NEAR MISSES? NOW, THIS LATEST ONE WITH THIS SHIP CROSSING BEYOND THE U.S. DESTROYER. >> YEAH, WHAT'S HAPPENED IS FIRST OF ALL THESE MISHAPSS INTERCEPTS TOOK PLACE DURING THE CONFERENCE IN SINGAPORE WHERE MOST OF THE NATIONS IN THAT REGION GATHER ONCE A YEAR TO DISCUSS ECONOMIC AND SECURITY ISSUES AND THE FACT IS THAT THE UNITED STATES IN CONCERT WITH OUR ALLIES HAVE BEEN DOING A LOT MORE EXERCISES IN THE REGION, IN THE TAIWAN STRAITS, IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. SO I THINK AS THE PRC PUSHES BACK ON OUR ALLIES IN THE REGION ON A NORMAL BASIS, CERTAINLY TAIWAN IS THE FOCUS OF THAT BUT THE OTHER COUNTRIES ARE INCLUDED AS WELL. WHILE THIS CONFERENCE IS GOING ON, THEY WANTED TO PUSH BACK ON THE UNITED STATES AND DEMONSTRATE TO OUR ALLIES AND PARTNERS THAT THE PRC IS NOT GOING TO PUT UP WITH THE UNITED STATES' CONTINUED PRESENCE IN THE PACIFIC REGION. WHAT THE PRC WANTS IS THE UNITED STATES TO DRAMATICALLY REDUCE THEIR PRESENCE IN THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY TO HAVE NO PRESENCE OF ANY CONSEQUENCE WHATSOEVER SO THE PRC CAN DOMINATE AND CONTROL THE REGION. THAT IS THEIR STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE AND THIS INTIMIDATION AND COERCION IS DESIGNED TO WEAR US DOWN, TO SORT OF BREAK OUR WILL BUT WE'RE NOT GOING TO STOP SAILING AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO STOP FLYING. THAT'S A FACT. IF ANYTHING, AS I INDICATED, WE'RE INCREASING ALL OF IT. MARIA: YEAH. WELL, I MEAN, I'M GLAD YOU SAID, YOU KNOW, SHIPS AS WELL AS FLYING. THIS IS JUST A FEW WEEKS AFTER ANOTHER NEAR MISS IN THE SKY. OBVIOUSLY THE CCP IS SENDING THAT MESSAGE, KEEP AWAY FROM TAIWAN, GET OUT OF OUR BUSINESS. WHAT SHOULD THE UNITED STATES BE DOING OTHER THAN JUST CONTINUING TO DO WHAT IT'S DOING? I MEAN, ALL OF THESE PROVOCATIONS IN THE WATER, IN THE AIR, THE SURVEILLANCE BALLOON, THE POLICE STATIONS, CLEARLY BEIJING DOESN'T CARE WHAT THE U.S. SAYS ABOUT ANY OF THIS. >> WELL, IN DEALING WITH THESE INTERCEPTS, THE BEST THING TO TOYS TO CONTINUE TO DO IT BECAUSE WHAT THEIR OBJECTIVE IS IS TO GET US TO STOP. CONTINUE PROVIDING ASSISTANCE TO TAIWAN, CONTINUING THE ALLIED PARTNERSHIP EXERCISES THAT WE'RE DOING. JAPAN IS DOUBLING THEIR DEFENSE BUDGET. SOUTH KOREA'S INCREASING THEIRS. AUSTRALIA IS INCREASING THEIRS AND THE EXERCISE PROGRAMS ARE GROWING SO THAT IS ALL IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS THAT THE DEFENSE BUDGET IS STATIC. AND AS A RESULT OF THE DEBT CEILING. I'M NOT GOING TO GET INTO THE POLITICS OF THE DEBT CEILING BUT THE RESULT IS WE'RE GOING TO STICK WITH THE BIDEN BUDGET WHICH IS BELOW INFLATION. THEREFORE, IT'S A DECLINING BUDGET. AND WE'VE GOT TO CATCH UP TO CHINA. AND WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO CATCH UP AND GET THE KIND OF DETERRENCE WE NEED IF WE HAVE A DEFENSE BUDGET THAT'S IN THE WATER, UNDER INFLATION. MARIA: YEAH. I'M REALLY GLAD YOU RAISED THIS. I'VE BEEN ALSO CONCERNED LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS AND WHEN I SPOKE WITH KEVIN McCARTHY OVER THE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES HE WENT THROUGH THIS IDEA THAT IF LAWMAKERS DON'T GET THEIR WORK DONE THERE'S A 1% ACROSS THE BOARD CUT IN ALL AGENCIES BUT EVERYONE I SPOKE WITH ABOUT THIS TOLD ME THAT IF WE WERE TO SEE THAT 1% CUT ACROSS ALL AGENCIES, THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT WOULD TAKE THE BIGGEST HIT BECAUSE, REMEMBER, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT 1% CUT ON DEFENSE VERSUS 1% CUT ON ALL THIS OTHER DISCRETIONARY SO THAT'S GOING TO GET SPREAD ACROSS ALL THIS OTHER SPENDING WHERE DEFENSE IS ACTUALLY GOING TO SEE A SEVERE CUT IF WE SEE THAT 1% AND EVEN NOW IN THE NUMBERS THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT, WE'RE NOT KEEPING UP WITH CHINA IN TERMS OF THE WAY IT'S INVESTING IN ITS MILITARY. JUST LOOK AT THE NUMBER OF SHIPS, CHINA WANTS TO HAVE MORE THAN 400 SHIPS IN THE COMING YEARS, WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, WHAT, JUST OVER 200 THAT WE HAVE IN THE NAVY? >> WE'RE GOING DOWN IN SHIPS, CHINA'S GOING TO FULL 40E WE'RE GOING TO 291. THE NAVY WANTS 373. WE'RE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO THAT. MARIA: THE TOP U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL FOR ASIA IN THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL SENIOR DIRECTOR FOR CHINA AND TAIWAN MET WITH CHINA'S VICE FOREIGN MINISTER IN BEIJING YESTERDAY. BOTH SIDES CALLING THE TALKS, QUOTE, CANDID AND PRODUCTIVE. GENERAL. THE WHITE HOUSE IS TRYING TO DOWNPLAY THE CONTROVERSIAL TRIP WHICH STARTED ON THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE TIANANMEN SQUARE MASSACRE, CLAIMING THAT THE TRIP WAS, QUOTE, LONG PLANNED AND IT WAS JUST THE WAY THE SCHEDULES WORKED OUT. GENERAL, WHY SEND A REPRESENTATIVE TO BEIJING ON THE VERY DAY THAT THEY'RE CELEBRATING THE TIANANMEN SQUARE DISASTER AND MURDERS? >> WELL, CHINA'S CERTAINLY NOT RECOGNIZING TIANANMEN SQUARE IN ANY CONSEQUENTIAL WAY WHATSOEVER. THAT'S A SCAR ON THEIR SOUL, A NATIONAL STAIN ON THEIR HONOR. I DON'T HAVE ANY PROBLEM WITH THESE OFFICIALS GOING TO CHINA TO TALK TO THEM AND HOPEFULLY BEING FIRM WITH THEM ABOUT THESE RECENT INTERCEPTS THAT HAVE TAKEN PLACE AND THE PATTERN OF THEIR AGGRESSION THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE OVER THESE LAST TWO MONTHS. I THINK THAT'S WHERE WE ARE. MARIA, I'VE GOT TO TELL YOU. THE COUNTER OFFENSIVE IN UKRAINE HAS BEGUN AND THAT IS BIG NEWS. ALL RIGHT? THE INSTITUTE FOR STUDY OF WAR CONFIRMED THAT LAST NIGHT FROM RUSSIAN AND UKRAINIAN AND U.S. GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS ARE LEAKING THE SAME THING, MULTIPLE ATTACKS ACROSS A 600-MILE FRONT. FOR OUR AUDIENCE TO UNDERSTAND, 600 MILES, THAT'S LIKE NEW YORK CITY TO CHARLOTTE. THAT'S HOW MUCH TERRAIN IS OUT THERE BEING DEFENDED BY THE RUSSIANS. WHAT THE UKRAINIANS ARE TRYING TO DO IS ISOLATE CRIMEA BY BREAKING THE MAIN SUPPLY ROUTES FROM RUSSIA TO CRIMEA AND GET TO THE SEA OF AZOLE AND THE BLACK SEA AND THEY'RE PROBING IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS. I THINK THEY'RE TRYING TO DISGUISE THE MAIN EFFORT. THIS WILL TAKE WEEKS TO UNFOLD BUT THIS LONG ANTICIPATED COUNTER OFFENSIVE HAS FINALLY STARTED. WE'VE GIVEN THEM LOTS OF EQUIPMENT TO DO THIS. THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST. THE UNITED STATES AND THE WEST HAS TRAINED OVER 40,000 OF UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS TO HELP THEM WITH THIS EQUIPMENT. AND ALSO TO HELP THEM WITH THEIR TACTICS. UKRAINIANS ARE NOT GOING TO TALK MUCH ABOUT THIS AT ALL. THE RUSSIANS ARE ALREADY SAYING THEY'RE DEFEATING THE UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE. THAT'S WHAT THEY'VE DONE IN THE PAST. BUT IT IS BEGINNING AND OF COURSE WE WISH THE UKRAINIANS WELL AND HOPE THEY'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THEIR OBJECTIVES. MARIA: WELL, WHAT DO YOU THINK? I WAS GOING THERE NEXT. IN'S DEPUTY DEFENSE MINISTER SAYS THE COUNTRY'S COUNTER OFFENSIVE AGAINST RUSSIA IS, QUOTE, TAKING PLACE IN SEVERAL DIRECTIONS, GENERAL. WILL UKRAINE BE ABLE TO WIN THIS? HOW DO YOU SEE THIS PLAYING OUT? >> YEAH, I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO BE ABLE TO TAKE SOME DECISIVE TERRITORY FROM THE RUSSIANS, CERTAINLY THE RUSSIANS HAVE BEEN PREPARING THESE DEFENSES, THESE SO-CALLED TRENCH LINES THAT PEOPLE ARE FAMILIAR WITH. BUT THE UKRAINIANS HAVING THE RUSSIANS DON'T HAVE AND THAT'S WILL. THE WILL TO FIGHT FOR THEIR COUNTRY AND IF NECESSARY THE WILL TO DIE FOR THEIR COUNTRY AND THAT HAS BEEN PROVEN TIME AND TIME AGAIN. THE UKRAINIANS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DEFEAT EVERY TYPE OF ORGANIZATION THE RUSSIANS HAVE. WHETHER IT'S PARACHUTE INFANTRY, NAVAL INFANTRY, DEUTSCHE BANK T, ARTILLERY. THEY BEAT THEM TIME AND TIME AGAIN. I THINK THEY HAVE A HUGE OPPORTUNITY HERE TO LIBERATE A LOT OF TERRITORY AND FREE THEIR PEOPLE FROM THE STAN GELHOLD THAT THE -- STRANGLEHOLD THAT THE RUSH SURVEILLANCE HAVE ON THOSE PEOPLE. IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE GROUND. IT'S ABOUT THE PEOPLE THEMSELVES AND THAT'S WHAT'S MOTIVATING THE UKRAINIANS. MARIA: YEAH. AMAZING. GENERAL, REAL QUICK. HOW LONG DO YOU EXPECT THIS COUNTER OFFENSIVE TO TAKE PLACE? >> IT WILL TAKE WEEKS. THE COUNTER OFFENSIVE TOOK SOMEWHERE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD SIX TO SEVEN WEEKS. AND I THINK THIS WILL TAKE -- WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE, TO BE FRANK ABOUT IT, MARIA. BUT THAT'S OUR ESTIMATE LOOKING AT IT. THIS IS TOUGH FIGHTING BUT IF THEY'RE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH IN A COUPLE OF PLACES AND REALLY GET TO THE RUSSIANS' REAR IT'S POSSIBLE IT COULD GO FASTER. WE'LL SEE. THE RUSSIANS ARE GOING TO FIGHT. PUTIN HAS MORE PEOPLE THAN THE UKRAINIANS. THE QUALITY OF THE UKRAINIANS MAY BE BETTER. THE NUMBERS PUTIN HAS IS
